Peter King/FMIA/PFT 1st Round Mock Draft

[Sierra Foothills]

Released this morning on the polarizing NFL blog, ProFootballTalk.

 

King's first round consists of:

 

• 5 QBs
• 1 Trade with Tenessee moving up to #3 (Arizona trades down to #11) to take Ohio State QB CJ Stroud
• 5 Edge players
• 1 DT (Jalen Carter of course)
• 4 CBs
• 2 RBs (Bijan Robinson is taken before the Bills pick)
• 4 OTs (including Skoronski, all taken before the Bills pick)
• 3 TEs
• 1 Safety
• 4 WRs (JSN is the first taken by PIT at #17)
• 1 Guard (O'Cyrus Torrence to KC at #31)
• The Bills taking Josh Downs WR North Carolina at #27 (after JSN, Zay Flowers, and Jordan Addison and with Jalin Hyatt and Quentin Johnston still available)

 

It's not behind a paywall:

 

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2023/04/24/fmia-peter-king-mock-draft-bryce-young-panthers/

 

so read 'em and weep!

 

 

Edited April 24, 2023 by Sierra Foothills

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Bills are drafting JSN, Flowers, or Addison. They will trade up.

 

Downs is a possibility. They’re looking to replace Beasley in the slot, not replace Gabe Davis.

Edited April 24, 2023 by Buffalo_Stampede

[CNYfan]

I have always felt Downs was a rarely mentioned possibility.  

[gonzo1105]

2 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Bills are drafting JSN, Flowers, or Addison. They will trade up.

 

Downs is a possibility. They’re looking to replace Beasley in the slot, not replace Gabe Davis.

They need to replace Gabe Davis considering he’s a Free Agent and despite his shortcomings will get a fairly large contract due to the WR market exploding and the direction the NFL is going 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Just now, gonzo1105 said:

They need to replace Gabe Davis considering he’s a Free Agent and despite his shortcomings will get a fairly large contract due to the WR market exploding and the direction the NFL is going 

He’ll be signed this summer. Going no where. He’s their WR 2/3 of the now and future.

[newcam2012]

41 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

They need to replace Gabe Davis considering he’s a Free Agent and despite his shortcomings will get a fairly large contract due to the WR market exploding and the direction the NFL is going 

I agree. Davis will likely get a nice contract offer from another team. Of course, a lot will depend on this season's play. 

 

I'd rather let Davis walk and draft a cheaper WR on a rookie contract. Davis is definetly replaceable. 

[newcam2012]

43 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

He’ll be signed this summer. Going no where. He’s their WR 2/3 of the now and future.

Gabe's success is largely tide into the success and threat of WR #1 Diggs and other solid WR.  He can be a very good WR 3 or 4. 

 

Imho, he's not a good WR2 because he's limited in his skill set. He lacks the ability to create separation, has a limited route running ability, takes too much time to create space, is poor at contested catches. 

 

I think it would be a huge mistake to sign Davis to a large contract in the 10 to 15 million dollar range. 

[ganesh]

23 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

I agree. Davis will likely get a nice contract offer from another team. Of course, a lot will depend on this season's play. 

 

I'd rather let Davis walk and draft a cheaper WR on a rookie contract. Davis is definetly replaceable. 

It is very possible the Bills will Franchise Tag Gabe and then could find a trading partner...like they did with Peerless Price several years ago. 

[ddaryl]

1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

He’ll be signed this summer. Going no where. He’s their WR 2/3 of the now and future.

 

 

Unless he shows a lot more this season I would not be signing him. He has not shown the consistency deserving of another contract IMO.

 

[JerseyBills]

3 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Bills are drafting JSN, Flowers, or Addison. They will trade up.

 

Downs is a possibility. They’re looking to replace Beasley in the slot, not replace Gabe Davis.

Replace Beasley? He was on the team for what 3 gms? Mckenzie was supposed to be that guy, Shakir will be that guy but don't sleep on Harty and Sherfield 

[ganesh]

17 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

Gabe's success is largely tide into the success and threat of WR #1 Diggs and other solid WR.  He can be a very good WR 3 or 4. 

 

Imho, he's not a good WR2 because he's limited in his skill set. He lacks the ability to create separation, has a limited route running ability, takes too much time to create space, is poor at contested catches. 

 

I think it would be a huge mistake to sign Davis to a large contract in the 10 to 15 million dollar range. 

Joe Marino had done a good research on Gabe and his skill set.  The important one was that Gabe had very little thrown to him in the 5-10 yards space...That is because he doesn't get the early separation...However, as evidenced in Joe Schoen's commentary (during the draft time),  Gabe closed very fast.....I think that is why he is very good beyond the 15 yard throws....  Now, if you have a fantastic slot guy, then Gabe could continue to create havoc in the mid-range space.

Just now, JerseyBills said:

Replace Beasley? He was on the team for what 3 gms? Mckenzie was supposed to be that guy, Shakir will be that guy but don't sleep on Harty and Sherfield 

All the more I don't see the Bills investing on a WR in the 1st round...I still think it will be a RT or a LB.

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, CNYfan said:

I have always felt Downs was a rarely mentioned possibility.  

 

 

I doubt it at #27, frankly. But if they trade back a bit, I'd love it.

[whorlnut]

13 minutes ago, JerseyBills said:

Replace Beasley? He was on the team for what 3 gms? Mckenzie was supposed to be that guy, Shakir will be that guy but don't sleep on Harty and Sherfield 

They literally brought Beasley out of retirement cause they didn’t have anyone that could replace his value last year. Allen was at his best in 2020 when Beasley was still really good and we had a good oline. Coincidence?

[Thurman#1]

46 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

Gabe's success is largely tide into the success and threat of WR #1 Diggs and other solid WR.  He can be a very good WR 3 or 4. 

 

Imho, he's not a good WR2 because he's limited in his skill set. He lacks the ability to create separation, has a limited route running ability, takes too much time to create space, is poor at contested catches. 

 

I think it would be a huge mistake to sign Davis to a large contract in the 10 to 15 million dollar range. 

 

 

There's no particular reason to believe that beyond the fact that you want to.

 

He is a legit #2. There really isn't a serious question about that. All you have to do is look at his production, understanding that he was injured, out and simply not himself for four weeks. He's very productive.

 

Yeah, he'd be a very good WR 3 or 4. That's because he's a #2.

 

Does he have a limited skill set. Yeah, fair enough. Not super quick and not a good separator because of that. But he also has palpable and obvious strengths. He does really well on more vertical routes, and he's excellent at scramble drills, which is something Josh really feeds on. He stacks really well also once he gets beyond his guy.

 

#2s have a limited skill set. That's why they're not #1s.

 

$10M to $15M will probably be a very reasonable price for him. Probably the low end of that range unless we see further improvement, but we easily might see him get better, particularly if he just stays healthy.  We might not be able to afford this without draconian measures elsewhere. If so, he'll be gone. But if we can fit it reasonably, it'd be a good move. And reasonably likely.

Edited April 24, 2023 by Thurman#1

[Buffalo_Stampede]

19 minutes ago, JerseyBills said:

Replace Beasley? He was on the team for what 3 gms? Mckenzie was supposed to be that guy, Shakir will be that guy but don't sleep on Harty and Sherfield 

Replacing him from 2 years ago. Beane said the plan didn’t happen last year because Crowder was hurt. McKenzie was supposed to be in a similar role he had 2 years ago. Harty is the McKenzie replacement.

 

They are still looking for the Beasley replacement. It could be Hopkins since he’s excellent out of the slot. Diggs and Hopkins can line up anywhere.  
 

They won’t go into the season without significantly upgrading the talent at slot WR. Shakir, Harty, and Sherfield will all add competition but there will be a significant addition added.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

13 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

I doubt it at #27, frankly. But if they trade back a bit, I'd love it.

Pick 27 is a 2nd round graded player. I would definitely be looking to trade down but if their guy is there and they fear he goes in the next few picks they will draft him.

[aristocrat]

Josh gets a weapon no problem with this. Gives him that slot guy who’s always open like 7-11

[Buffalo_Stampede]

26 minutes ago, ddaryl said:

 

 

Unless he shows a lot more this season I would not be signing him. He has not shown the consistency deserving of another contract IMO.

 

If we look at Gabe as a WR2/3 he’s perfect. Watching WR contracts rise I have no issue with him getting something in the neighborhood of Alan Lazard. Get it done and look to upgrade around him. $12 million isn’t bad for a WR2/3. We can comfortably have a Diggs/Hopkins combo for 1-2 years also if they choose. 

[BarleyNY]

35 minutes ago, ganesh said:

It is very possible the Bills will Franchise Tag Gabe and then could find a trading partner...like they did with Peerless Price several years ago. 

I think there’s zero chance of the Bills tagging Davis. The projected WR franchise tag in 2024 is $24M. Transition is $21.3M. That would be insane. His market value would probably be around 4/$50M. You could sign him to that contract, guarantee the first two seasons and get him for two years for the price of the FT. And the cap hits would be structured much better.

 

Also what team would be stupid enough to trade for Davis on a 1 year $24M contract? Insanity. 

Edited April 24, 2023 by BarleyNY

[zow2]

There was a time I thought the Bills were going to draft Bijan Robinson.  That ship has sailed. With every passing week he moves higher and higher.  Peter K has him in the top-10.  

[Dr. Who]

6 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Replacing him from 2 years ago. Beane said the plan didn’t happen last year because Crowder was hurt. McKenzie was supposed to be in a similar role he had 2 years ago. Harty is the McKenzie replacement.

 

They are still looking for the Beasley replacement. It could be Hopkins since he’s excellent out of the slot. Diggs and Hopkins can line up anywhere.  
 

They won’t go into the season without significantly upgrading the talent at slot WR. Shakir, Harty, and Sherfield will all add competition but there will be a significant addition added.

In the NFL Draft rumors thread at one point you were saying DT is a real possibility at 27. You then changed to a confident assertion that Drew Sanders was our guy. When asked about your source, you claimed "the Future." Apparently now the future is saying Josh Downs.

[ddaryl]

1 minute ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

If we look at Gabe as a WR2/3 he’s perfect. Watching WR contracts rise I have no issue with him getting something in the neighborhood of Alan Lazard. Get it done and look to upgrade around him. $12 million isn’t bad for a WR2/3. We can comfortably have a Diggs/Hopkins combo for 1-2 years also if they choose. 

From what I saw of Gabe last year I want a replacement....

I need to see much more consistency....   

[Thurman#1]

6 minutes ago, whorlnut said:

They literally brought Beasley out of retirement cause they didn’t have anyone that could replace his value last year. Allen was at his best in 2020 when Beasley was still really good and we had a good oline. Coincidence?

 

 

Agreed. 

 

It's less replacing Beasley than replacing Beasley's role in 2020 and 2019. Harty and Sherfield might be able to fill that role, or at least to some degree. I wouldn't mind them bringing in a high-level slot guy like Flowers or Downs.

[LEBills]

There is always a first time for anything, but Josh Downs didn’t have any top 30 visits .

 

 

The Bills have always had their first pick in for a top 30 visit during the McBeane era. To me it’s pretty unlikely he is the Bils pick at 27. Good player tho.

Edited April 24, 2023 by LEBills

[bearcat]

I think Quentin Johnston could be like a Tee Higgins type player. I would prefer him over Downs.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Just now, Dr. Who said:

In the NFL Draft rumors thread at one point you were saying DT is a real possibility at 27. You then changed to a confident assertion that Drew Sanders was our guy. When asked about your source, you claimed "the Future." Apparently now the future is saying Josh Downs.

I didn’t say Sanders at 27. Sanders or Simpson round 2.

 

DT comes into play at 27 if Oliver is moved and Hopkins is brought in.
 

 

 

 

[Thurman#1]

12 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Pick 27 is a 2nd round graded player. I would definitely be looking to trade down but if their guy is there and they fear he goes in the next few picks they will draft him.

 

 

Downs is probably somewhere around the 35th - 40th best player. Roughly. Haven't crept into the Bills draft room, so I don't know how they see him, but that seems to be the general consensus.

 

They might not have the chance to trade back. But IMO if they can't trade back, Downs won't be who they go with. 

 

Guess we'll see. Again, I like Downs a lot. Just not at #27.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Just now, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Downs is probably somewhere around the 35th - 40th best player. Roughly. Haven't crept into the Bills draft room, so I don't know how they see him, but that seems to be the general consensus.

 

They might not have the chance to trade back. But IMO if they can't trade back, Downs won't be who they go with. 

 

Guess we'll see. Again, I like Downs a lot. Just not at #27.

I personally think if they can’t get JSN, Flowers, or Addison they trade for Hopkins. 
 

Maybe they think Downs can have instant impact at slot WR also? 

[Warriorspikes51]

4 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Bills are drafting JSN, Flowers, or Addison. They will trade up.

 

Downs is a possibility. They’re looking to replace Beasley in the slot, not replace Gabe Davis.

Wait.....you also said "Drew Sanders is the pick" 

[Dr. Who]

1 minute ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

Wait.....you also said "Drew Sanders is the pick" 

He's now claiming he meant the second round, though he did not clarify that earlier which is convenient.

[The Jokeman]

16 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

In the NFL Draft rumors thread at one point you were saying DT is a real possibility at 27. You then changed to a confident assertion that Drew Sanders was our guy. When asked about your source, you claimed "the Future." Apparently now the future is saying Josh Downs.

If Bryan Bresee somehow falls to us I think he is a legitimate draft candidate as he's got RAS that Beane seems to like in 1st Round picks and fits a position of long term need. Yet honestly this draft after the top 4 or 5 picks or so is difficult to predict as any in recent memory. 

[MrEpsYtown]

Yeah don't love a slot guy there. Nice explosion and speed, but it's the definition of meh. 

 

For me, my "no's" in the first round are typically:  

RTs

IOL - Zack Martin/Quentin Nelson level players are the exception

Non elite slot WRs without standout traits

blocking TEs

Run defensing edge guys who don't get sacks

Nose tackles

RBs other than Saquon/Bijan level guys

small/short QBs

 

To me Downs is a non elite smaller slot with meh traits. If he's running in the 4.3s it's a different story at that size. 

 

Edited April 24, 2023 by MrEpsYtown

[Dr. Who]

Just now, The Jokeman said:

If Bryan Bresee somehow falls to us I think he is a legitimate draft candidate as he's got RAS that Beane seems to like in 1st Round picks and fits a position of long term need. Yet honestly this draft after the top 4 or 5 picks or so is difficult to predict as any in recent memory. 

I've been hoping for and promoting early picks for offensive line and offensive weapons, though naturally that assumes that a viable prospect is available at those positions. Fair chance there won't be, at least at 27. If Beane does go defense, I much prefer DL over LB or DB. Bresee is a possibility and I like him.

[NeverOutNick]

I feel like Downs could be a guy we target but he’s strictly a slot. Albeit a very good slot who may have the best hands in the WR class. I just feel like if that’s where we go we can probably trade back a little and get him in the second for some added value 

[whorlnut]

34 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Pick 27 is a 2nd round graded player. I would definitely be looking to trade down but if their guy is there and they fear he goes in the next few picks they will draft him.

There is no way of saying for sure the pick at 27 would be a second round graded player. We have no idea who the bills have graded in the first. Each team has a different board. There could conceivably be more than one player at 27 that the bills have a first on. There could also be zero. It’s just not a fact to say that pick 27 is a second round graded player. 

34 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Pick 27 is a 2nd round graded player. I would definitely be looking to trade down but if their guy is there and they fear he goes in the next few picks they will draft him.

There is no way of saying for sure the pick at 27 would be a second round graded player. We have no idea who the bills have graded in the first. Each team has a different board. There could conceivably be more than one player at 27 that the bills have a first on. There could also be zero. It’s just not a fact to say that pick 27 is a second round graded player. 

34 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Pick 27 is a 2nd round graded player. I would definitely be looking to trade down but if their guy is there and they fear he goes in the next few picks they will draft him.

There is no way of saying for sure the pick at 27 would be a second round graded player. We have no idea who the bills have graded in the first. Each team has a different board. There could conceivably be more than one player at 27 that the bills have a first on. There could also be zero. It’s just not a fact to say that pick 27 is a second round graded player. 

34 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Pick 27 is a 2nd round graded player. I would definitely be looking to trade down but if their guy is there and they fear he goes in the next few picks they will draft him.

There is no way of saying for sure the pick at 27 would be a second round graded player. We have no idea who the bills have graded in the first. Each team has a different board. There could conceivably be more than one player at 27 that the bills have a first on. There could also be zero. It’s just not a fact to say that pick 27 is a second round graded player. 

34 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Pick 27 is a 2nd round graded player. I would definitely be looking to trade down but if their guy is there and they fear he goes in the next few picks they will draft him.

There is no way of saying for sure the pick at 27 would be a second round graded player. We have no idea who the bills have graded in the first. Each team has a different board. There could conceivably be more than one player at 27 that the bills have a first on. There could also be zero. It’s just not a fact to say that pick 27 is a second round graded player. 

34 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Pick 27 is a 2nd round graded player. I would definitely be looking to trade down but if their guy is there and they fear he goes in the next few picks they will draft him.

There is no way of saying for sure the pick at 27 would be a second round graded player. We have no idea who the bills have graded in the first. Each team has a different board. There could conceivably be more than one player at 27 that the bills have a first on. There could also be zero. It’s just not a fact to say that pick 27 is a second round graded player. 

34 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Pick 27 is a 2nd round graded player. I would definitely be looking to trade down but if their guy is there and they fear he goes in the next few picks they will draft him.

There is no way of saying for sure the pick at 27 would be a second round graded player. We have no idea who the bills have graded in the first. Each team has a different board. There could conceivably be more than one player at 27 that the bills have a first on. There could also be zero. It’s just not a fact to say that pick 27 is a second round graded player. 

34 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Pick 27 is a 2nd round graded player. I would definitely be looking to trade down but if their guy is there and they fear he goes in the next few picks they will draft him.

There is no way of saying for sure the pick at 27 would be a second round graded player. We have no idea who the bills have graded in the first. Each team has a different board. There could conceivably be more than one player at 27 that the bills have a first on. There could also be zero. It’s just not a fact to say that pick 27 is a second round graded player. 

34 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Pick 27 is a 2nd round graded player. I would definitely be looking to trade down but if their guy is there and they fear he goes in the next few picks they will draft him.

There is no way of saying for sure the pick at 27 would be a second round graded player. We have no idea who the bills have graded in the first. Each team has a different board. There could conceivably be more than one player at 27 that the bills have a first on. There could also be zero. It’s just not a fact to say that pick 27 is a second round graded player. 

34 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Pick 27 is a 2nd round graded player. I would definitely be looking to trade down but if their guy is there and they fear he goes in the next few picks they will draft him.

There is no way of saying for sure the pick at 27 would be a second round graded player. We have no idea who the bills have graded in the first. Each team has a different board. There could conceivably be more than one player at 27 that the bills have a first on. There could also be zero. It’s just not a fact to say that pick 27 is a second round graded player. 

[PrimeTime101]

I find it amazing how these boards have evolved over the last 2 months...  We went from totally rejecting the idea, to.. Yea I will take a WR  but in mid rounds to, I will take a WR if we trade back a little, to... even some now saying "I will be ok with it" 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

17 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

Wait.....you also said "Drew Sanders is the pick" 

I never said this. For one Im not an insider. It was Sal that said he believes they would want Drew Sanders over Jack Campbell. I then posted Drew Sanders is our guy in the “rumors” thread.

[JoPoy88]

Seems way too high for Downs. Reminder that Peter King is terrible at these things. He does basically no research. I’m not sure why he still bothers putting one out unless it’s in his contract.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

1 minute ago, PrimeTime101 said:

I find it amazing how these boards have evolved over the last 2 months...  We went from totally rejecting the idea, to.. Yea I will take a WR  but in mid rounds to, I will take a WR if we trade back a little, to... even some now saying "I will be ok with it" 

Welcome to the draft process. Your first time?

[Shanahan's Horseshoe]

I like Downs better than Zay and Addison.  Runs routes like Stevie Johnson and has excellent hands.  BSF than Beasley too