Gesicki to the Patriots

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

3 hours ago, Ghost_002! said:

Zach Wison has physicay better tools than Mac...

That's what she said.

 

(Kid, either turn on the spellcheck, or proofread.)

[NickelCity]

I think it's a good signing for them, tbh. Doesn't really change much in the scheme of the AFCE, but he should add something nice to their offense. 

[Utah John]

Are the Pats going to try him out at QB?

[DallasBillsFan1]

I like our TE's.  I hope they use Morris more this coming season.  He had a couple great plays in second half of season.  

[GunnerBill]

The first time he trips over his own feet and falls on his arse whiffing on a wham block Bill will have him consigned to the bench. 

3 hours ago, Chicken Boo said:

 

Knox would never have gotten $13 million a year on the open market.

 

Wrong. Wrong. Wrong.

[Chicken Boo]

9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

The first time he trips over his own feet and falls on his arse whiffing on a wham block Bill will have him consigned to the bench. 

 

Wrong. Wrong. Wrong.

 

No team outside of Buffalo makes that deal for a guy who had struggled with drops.

 

He makes more than Mark Andrews 🥴

Edited March 17, 2023 by Chicken Boo

[Freddie's Dead]

9M for Gesicki?  Wow.

[Warcodered]

 

 

[GunnerBill]

8 minutes ago, Chicken Boo said:

 

No team outside of Buffalo makes that deal for a guy who had struggled with drops.

 

He makes more than Mark Andrews 🥴

 

Point 1 - he does NOT make more than Andrews. Andrews' deal is worth $1m more per year AAV.

 

Point 2 - He hasn't struggled with drops really since his rookie year but every time he drops one now everyone immediately reverts to that. He had half of Mark Andrews drops last year and at a lower % too seeing as you mention him. 

 

Point 3 - Dawson Knox averages over 70% catch rate the last two years, is top 3 in TE touchdowns and per NextGen finished top 5 among the entire NFL in separation per route in 2022. Add to that among the top 10 or 12 tight ends in the league he is in the top 4 or 5 as a blocker. 

 

If Knox hit the market this offseason he would have got about what the Bills gave him. Hunter Henry (who we have already established is a reasonable statistical comparison in terms of receiving production) signed a year earlier for $12.5m and he can't hold Dawson's jock as a blocker. 

 

The only legit criticism of the Bills - Knox deal is they still haven't got the ball to him enough. That is a Dorsey problem (and maybe even an Allen one) but they have to get him the ball. He can be such a weapon for them.

 

[Doc]

He should have taken a 1-year deal with a better team, even if it was for less money.  A 1-year deal is an audition for your next team and he won't maximize his next contract in Cheaterland.

[Chicken Boo]

13 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Point 1 - he does NOT make more than Andrews. Andrews' deal is worth $1m more per year AAV.

 

Point 2 - He hasn't struggled with drops really since his rookie year but every time he drops one now everyone immediately reverts to that. He had half of Mark Andrews drops last year and at a lower % too seeing as you mention him. 

 

Point 3 - Dawson Knox averages over 70% catch rate the last two years, is top 3 in TE touchdowns and per NextGen finished top 5 among the entire NFL in separation per route in 2022. Add to that among the top 10 or 12 tight ends in the league he is in the top 4 or 5 as a blocker. 

 

If Knox hit the market this offseason he would have got about what the Bills gave him. Hunter Henry (who we have already established is a reasonable statistical comparison in terms of receiving production) signed a year earlier for $12.5m and he can't hold Dawson's jock as a blocker. 

 

The only legit criticism of the Bills - Knox deal is they still haven't got the ball to him enough. That is a Dorsey problem (and maybe even an Allen one) but they have to get him the ball. He can be such a weapon for them.

 

 

Point 1 - He shouldn't be in the same realm as Andrews given their production at the position

 

Point 2 - Andrews had twice the statistical production with Lamar being out for the last 5 weeks.

 

Point 3 - With 49 and 48 receptions on the year, anything less would be pathetic.

 

Hunter Henry?  The guy who has 3 seasons under his belt better than Dawson's best to date?  He has 9 drops for his career.  Knox has 22.  

 

 

 

Edited March 17, 2023 by Chicken Boo

[QLBillsFan]

The guys an excellent receiver and match up problem. Going to the Pats who have not been able to work the TE’s in seems like a bad fit. As mentioned he’s the ultimate first down/garbage celebration king. Glad he’s no longer on Miami as they are a better team. 

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, Chicken Boo said:

 

Point 1 - He shouldn't be in the same realm as Andrews given their production at the position

 

Point 2 - Andrews had twice the statistical production with Lamar being out for the last 5 weeks.

 

Point 3 - With 49 and 48 receptions on the year, anything less would be pathetic.

 

Hunter Henry?  The guy who has 3 seasons under his belt better than Dawson's best to date?  He has 9 drops for his career.  Knox has 22.  

 

 

 

 

You know nothing about the tight end position. This is established. 

[Bookie Man]

Where TEs go to die

Edited March 18, 2023 by ßookie_tech

[JimBob2232]

I really wanted him.  should be real good in ne.

[Thurman#1]

12 hours ago, JayBaller10 said:

He’s a beast of a WR when targeted, catches everything. But unlike Gronk he isn’t nearly as physical. He should do better than their last two FA TE acquisitions as far as being an offensive threat. 

 

 

Agreed. He's always been really productive against us.

 

I guarantee that didn't escape Belichick.

[Low Positive]

We focus on Gronk and Kielce as pass

catchers, but they are also both really great blockers. It adds to them as weapons because they can block and release and it’s believable. 

[Chicken Boo]

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

You know nothing about the tight end position. This is established. 

 

I'm not the one who thinks Dawson Knox is worth $13 million per season.  

[Perry Turtle]

Patriots have emphasized TEs in their offense for years.  Outside of Gronk, the rest of these guys have either murdered someone or faded into oblivion. 

 

I mean, Hunter Henry and Jonu Smith really turned that franchise around, right?

 

At least we get to have fun watching this goofball frustrate the hell out of Belichick this season.

[GunnerBill]

4 hours ago, Chicken Boo said:

 

I'm not the one who thinks Dawson Knox is worth $13 million per season.  

 

No. The NFL thinks that. 

[Royale with Cheese]

7 hours ago, Chicken Boo said:

 

I'm not the one who thinks Dawson Knox is worth $13 million per season.  

If Knox made it to FA, he would have gotten $13 million a year easily.

 

In the last 3 years, only Kittle, Andrews and Kelce have more TD catches than Knox and Knox literally has half the targets.  

 

Knox averages around 60-65 targets.

Kelce like 130.  Andrews 100+.
Kittle 100+ when healthy.

 

What would happen if Knox is targeted more?  

[Chicken Boo]

43 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

If Knox made it to FA, he would have gotten $13 million a year easily.

 

In the last 3 years, only Kittle, Andrews and Kelce have more TD catches than Knox and Knox literally has half the targets.  

 

Knox averages around 60-65 targets.

Kelce like 130.  Andrews 100+.
Kittle 100+ when healthy.

 

What would happen if Knox is targeted more?  

 

Only on this board is Dawson Knox on Kelce or Andrews level.  

 

Like Singletary and his 4.7 ypc.

[Royale with Cheese]

9 minutes ago, Chicken Boo said:

 

Only on this board is Dawson Knox on Kelce or Andrews level.  

 

Like Singletary and his 4.7 ypc.

I am astonished that’s how you comprehended that.  

[Chicken Boo]

23 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

I am astonished that’s how you comprehended that.  

 

"What would happen if Knox was targeted more?"

 

What exactly were you getting at then?  How else am I supposed to interpret that?

[Jay_Fixit]

23 hours ago, JayBaller10 said:

He’s a beast of a WR when targeted, catches everything. But unlike Gronk he isn’t nearly as physical. He should do better than their last two FA TE acquisitions as far as being an offensive threat. 

I think Hunter Henry was a great receiving option. New England just has ass for quarterbacks.

[Royale with Cheese]

38 minutes ago, Chicken Boo said:

 

"What would happen if Knox was targeted more?"

 

What exactly were you getting at then?  How else am I supposed to interpret that?

You should interpret it at the very basic level.  More targets equals more production.  
 

Travis Kelce last year had 152 targets last year which was #1 in the league at Tight End.  He almost had nearly 90 more targets than Knox who was 17th in the league at 65.

 

Obviously Kelce targeted more because he’s the better weapon and probably the GOAT at tight end.  I’m not saying Knox should get that many targets.  
 

If you give Knox 25 more targets which would put him in the top 7 just for tight end…you would see increased production.

 

His TD production is impressive none the less.

 

Since 2020 TD’s:

Kelce - 431 targets/32 TD

Andrews - 354 targets/21 TD

Knox - 180 targets/18 TD
 

I

[Ghost_002!]

9 hours ago, Perry Turtle said:

Patriots have emphasized TEs in their offense for years.  Outside of Gronk, the rest of these guys have either murdered someone or faded into oblivion. 

 

I mean, Hunter Henry and Jonu Smith really turned that franchise around, right?

 

At least we get to have fun watching this goofball frustrate the hell out of Belichick this season.

 

Ben Coats

Daniel Graham 

18 hours ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said:

That's what she said.

 

(Kid, either turn on the spellcheck, or proofread.)

 

ha ha..True meaning of motherf**ker.

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, Chicken Boo said:

 

Only on this board is Dawson Knox on Kelce or Andrews level.  

 

Like Singletary and his 4.7 ypc.

 

No, he isn't Kelce or Andrews. Nor is he paid like he is. The top 4 tight ends in football are Kelce, Kittle, Andrews and (if he can get back post injury and trade) Waller. That is the elite tier. Dawson Knox is neither in that nor paid like he is in that. 

 

He is in the next tier though. The Dallas Goedert, Dalton Schultz, Hunter Henry tier. And the numbers don't lie... he is the least targeted of any of those guys despite the analytics and the tape showing very clearly he is getting open at a very high rate (top 5 separation in the NFL). 

 

The only reason you don't think Dawson Knox isn't worth that money is because Dorsey and/or Josh can't find a way to get him the ball or because you can't let go of 10 drops as a rookie. Or possibly because you haven't actually looked at the tight end market. 

[vincec]

22 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

No, he isn't Kelce or Andrews. Nor is he paid like he is. The top 4 tight ends in football are Kelce, Kittle, Andrews and (if he can get back post injury and trade) Waller. That is the elite tier. Dawson Knox is neither in that nor paid like he is in that. 

 

He is in the next tier though. The Dallas Goedert, Dalton Schultz, Hunter Henry tier. And the numbers don't lie... he is the least targeted of any of those guys despite the analytics and the tape showing very clearly he is getting open at a very high rate (top 5 separation in the NFL). 

 

The only reason you don't think Dawson Knox isn't worth that money is because Dorsey and/or Josh can't find a way to get him the ball or because you can't let go of 10 drops as a rookie. Or possibly because you haven't actually looked at the tight end market. 

All players would have better production if they were used more. The question of whether they should be is based on whether the team would do better if they were, and that's very subjective.

[GunnerBill]

Just now, vincec said:

All players would have better production if they were used more. The question of whether they should be is based on whether the team would do better if they were, and that's very subjective.

 

Is it? A guy who the evidence (both subjective and analytical) show gets open, who is 3rd in the league behind only the best two tight ends in football in touchdowns the past 2 seasons? I mean I think it is all but a certainty that throwing to that guy more might be a good idea.

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

On 3/17/2023 at 11:54 AM, JayBaller10 said:

I wonder how much Dawson Knox would’ve got in FA if he hadn’t been extended for $13M/yr. Does he get close to that amount? Or significantly less?

I guess it depends on whatever offense you are running, but I would say close to that amount. Knox is a much better blocker, but not quite as good catching it (better red zone threat IMO.) Both nearly the same age and very durable. Knox is the more balanced TE though and doesn’t need to be taken out in heavier packages. 

[section122]

20 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Is it? A guy who the evidence (both subjective and analytical) show gets open, who is 3rd in the league behind only the best two tight ends in football in touchdowns the past 2 seasons? I mean I think it is all but a certainty that throwing to that guy more might be a good idea.

This is why a blocking te or just another te in general is an undermentioned need.  Knox stays in to block out of necessity. Shoring up the oline and protection will benefit him tremendously imo.

[vincec]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Is it? A guy who the evidence (both subjective and analytical) show gets open, who is 3rd in the league behind only the best two tight ends in football in touchdowns the past 2 seasons? I mean I think it is all but a certainty that throwing to that guy more might be a good idea.

There is one ball. Even if it’s as you say and he’s wide open but Allen is too blind to throw it to him or the play insists than he doesn’t get the ball even if open, going to Knox more means going to Diggs / Davis / slot WR less or running the ball even less with a weak OL. Then you have to believe that Knox can run a wider variety of routes and stay healthy enough to be relied on for a larger portion of the offense, too.

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, vincec said:

There is one ball. Even if it’s as you say and he’s wide open but Allen is too blind to throw it to him or the play insists than he doesn’t get the ball even if open, going to Knox more means going to Diggs / Davis / slot WR less or running the ball even less with a weak OL. Then you have to believe that Knox can run a wider variety of routes and stay healthy enough to be relied on for a larger portion of the offense, too.

 

They should have been going to Knox more and Davis and the slot less, yes.

[Chicken Boo]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

The only reason you don't think Dawson Knox isn't worth that money is because Dorsey and/or Josh can't find a way to get him the ball or because you can't let go of 10 drops as a rookie. Or possibly because you haven't actually looked at the tight end market. 

 

I actually like Dawson Knox and think he's a good tight end, but for his production here, wherever you want to place blame, I don't think he's worth $13 million a season.  That's it.  

 

 

[GunnerBill]

46 minutes ago, Chicken Boo said:

 

I actually like Dawson Knox and think he's a good tight end, but for his production here, wherever you want to place blame, I don't think he's worth $13 million a season.  That's it.  

 

 

 

That wasn't what you said at the start. You said nobody else would have paid it. That is the bit I am afraid is just wrong. Because NFL GMs do have access to the film and the analytics. They are not basing a decision just on receiving yards. As an example the Vikings (despite having Hockenson and Irv Smith) just paid Josh Oliver, from the same draft as Knox, with 230 yards and 2 touchdowns in 4 seasons $7m AAV because he blocks well and the analytics on his route running demonstrate he still has untapped potential as a receiver. 

[C.Biscuit97]

Good red zone threat. Not much else. If the Pats sign or draft a receiver (that’s what he basically is), they probably suck. 

[Sierra Foothills]

On 3/17/2023 at 8:12 AM, BruceVilanch said:

Who is a tier above in free agency? Odell wants to sign with a contender, and gesicki is on par with all the free agent TEs

 

I'd actually prefer Dalton Schultz to Gesicki but that's just me.

 

On 3/17/2023 at 9:22 AM, Ghost_002! said:

 

 

Excellent analyzation! 

 

I think the word is analyzoscopy... analyzopolis? 

 

On 3/17/2023 at 12:46 PM, Ridgewaycynic2013 said:

(Kid, either turn on the spellcheck, or proofread.)

 

Technically the period should come after the close parentheses.  

 

On 3/17/2023 at 1:46 PM, DallasBillsFan1 said:

I like our TE's.  I hope they use Morris more this coming season.  He had a couple great plays in second half of season.  

 

Agreed. I think Q Morris has a solid floor and some upside too.

 

[ArtVandalay]

The Knox contract might be one of the worst in the NFL right now looking at the market this offseason. It's brutal and it's going to cost us a good football player we can't retain. 

 

That contract was absolutely not based on production and purely on projection. Awful miss this year, we'll see what next year brings. I pray he improves. 

[Chicken Boo]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

That wasn't what you said at the start. You said nobody else would have paid it. That is the bit I am afraid is just wrong. Because NFL GMs do have access to the film and the analytics. They are not basing a decision just on receiving yards. As an example the Vikings (despite having Hockenson and Irv Smith) just paid Josh Oliver, from the same draft as Knox, with 230 yards and 2 touchdowns in 4 seasons $7m AAV because he blocks well and the analytics on his route running demonstrate he still has untapped potential as a receiver. 

 

Oh no I stand by that.  The Bills are the only squad paying $13 mill for Knox.