Good article by Bruce Nolan re: Beane's draft capital expenditure since 2018

[LABILLBACKER]

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2023/2/23/23611065/predicting-buffalo-bills-succession-problems-through-draft-capital-expenditure-research

 

Staggering numbers in the WR, TE and OL categories.  You take away the swing and miss on Ford and the OL % dips below 3.  Just an indictment on what happens when your defensive HC gets in the ear of your GM. 

[Marcus Aurelius]

[Mr. WEO]

so....not a wizard?

[MJS]

So it is 60/40 in favor of the defense. It's hard to take the WR numbers as they are because they traded a 1st round pick for Diggs, which was a slam dunk. They also traded for Kelvin Benjamin, and that was NOT a slam dunk.

 

We are due for some offensive investment in the draft, especially at receiver.

[LABILLBACKER]

21 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

As I said last off-season, they don’t value the WR position nearly as much as they should and they overvalue RB… really strange strategy….specifically in a passing league and with a top 3 QB…. There was no chance they were taking a 1st round WR lasts years draft and if there is a top defensive player with a top WR prospect available at 27 I am still skeptical they’ll go WR… regardless of what they do in FA.

If you are right and yes there is a chance McB go defense once again @ 27, then this will send a clear "FU" message to our offensive leaders. Drafting mid tier RB's when you already know you don't have the proper run blocking olineman in place is pure stupidity.  Last year was the perfect opportunity to land one of those top wrs.  Even Terry has gotta see this behavior and shake his head.

[atlbillsfan1975]

I really hope Beane and McD agree on what players they want. Bills don’t have the luxury anymore of the slow development model for rookies. The philosophy on the team needs to evolve to developing youth on the field so they are ready for the playoffs.  I fear it won’t though, since I’ve heard McD talk about the rookie wall regarding players like Groot… At very least allow the rookies to work way into starting lineup through the year if worried about load management like they did w/ James Cook. 

[Shortchaz]

1 hour ago, MJS said:

So it is 60/40 in favor of the defense. It's hard to take the WR numbers as they are because they traded a 1st round pick for Diggs, which was a slam dunk. They also traded for Kelvin Benjamin, and that was NOT a slam dunk.

 

We are due for some offensive investment in the draft, especially at receiver.

How much of the 40% is Allen

[McDeerInTheHeadlights]

To make things worse is the fact that the head-scratching asset allocation is only one side of the issue. On top of that you have to add the poor job at talent scouting, selection and, if you wish, development. I would argue that with that kind of capital spent on the DL, you should not be in the position to go out and overspend to bring in a 30+ veteran, regardless of his HoF status.

 

Most people here seem to be in love with Beane. Perhaps that's because he is a polished public-speaker and he is, at least apparently, very candid in sharing the 'behind the scenes", the thought process behind each decision, but the reality is that for the Bills to win a SB he (also) has to do much better.

 

And who knows, if part of the problem is McD getting too much in Beane's way when it comes to asset allocation and talent selection, well perhaps it's time for McD to take a step back and let the GM do his job.

Edited February 24, 2023 by McDeerInTheHeadlights

[TFBillsfan]

Missing on Ford hurt badly. Compounded by head scratching selections with drafting Moss in the 2nd round after just drafting Singletary the prior year in the 3rd, wasting a 4th round pick on Fromm when you had greater needs than a backup QB and then going RB again with a 2nd round pick followed by a huge miss in the 3rd with LB T Bernard. Those were huge value picks that Beane chose to ignore OL or WR.  Josh has masked a lot of shortfalls and while Beane and McDermott deserve a lot of credit, they also deserve their fair share of criticism.  They spent 3 picks on RB in the early rounds and all have had minimal impact. In addition, they’ve spent a ton of draft capital and FA spend on the DL that has yet to be a difference maker against quality teams. 

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, Shortchaz said:

How much of the 40% is Allen

Offense takes up 38.5% of cap allocation. Josh takes up 46% of that.

[SCBills]

53 minutes ago, McDeerInTheHeadlights said:

To make things worse is the fact that the head-scratching asset allocation is only one side of the issue. On top of that you have to add the poor job at talent scouting, selection and, if you wish, development. I would argue that with that kind of capital spent on the DL, you should not be in the position to go out and overspend to bring in a 30+ veteran, regardless of his HoF status.

 

Most people here seem to be in love with Beane. Perhaps that's because he is a polished public-speaker and he is, at least apparently, very candid in sharing the 'behind the scenes", the thought process behind each decision, but the reality is that for the Bills to win a SB he (also) has to do much better.

 

And who knows, if part of the problem is McD getting too much in Beane's way when it comes to asset allocation and talent selection, well perhaps it's time for McD to take a step back and let the GM do his job.

I think this is the first off-season the fanbase is critical of Beane & McDermott.  
 

13 seconds, last year.. yea, but it was different.   It was criticism of a moment, not of failures and philosophy.  
 

This year it’s everywhere… fanbase, WGR, podcasters, Twitter personalities

 

It seems 0-100, but honestly it’s just a release of things people were feeling for a while, but able to quell due to the AFC CG, followed by an epic Divisional Round Game.  The product on the field was there, we will eventually breakthrough.. just a tweak here or there… and then this year happened. 

[MWK]

Complete malpractice. This regime will be gone soon if they don’t start devoting some resources to offense.

[Matt_In_NH]

3 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2023/2/23/23611065/predicting-buffalo-bills-succession-problems-through-draft-capital-expenditure-research

 

Staggering numbers in the WR, TE and OL categories.  You take away the swing and miss on Ford and the OL % dips below 3.  Just an indictment on what happens when your defensive HC gets in the ear of your GM. 

I would like to see what it looks like if you count Diggs as a first round pick which is kind of what that was.  

[CincyBillsFan]

12 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Offense takes up 38.5% of cap allocation. Josh takes up 46% of that.

Allen is responsible for what, 85% of the offensive production?  It's a testament to Allen's elite level of contribution that over the last 3 seasons the Bills offense, which gets less then 40% of the teams cap resources, has been a top 3 unit by both yards & points.  Imagine the state of the Bills O without Allen.

 

 

[schoolhouserock]

It would be cool to see how this falls for other teams, head coaches, and GMs.

 

For example, there are only so many TEs on any roster, right? It is also a position that has become difficult to develop in the NFL. GM’s might prefer a vet over a cost controlled rookie at such a position. So what is a reasonable percent to allocate to that position? Is Buffalo an outlier?

 

Very neat analysis and would be great to see it set in a broader context.

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, McDeerInTheHeadlights said:

To make things worse is the fact that the head-scratching asset allocation is only one side of the issue. On top of that you have to add the poor job at talent scouting, selection and, if you wish, development. I would argue that with that kind of capital spent on the DL, you should not be in the position to go out and overspend to bring in a 30+ veteran, regardless of his HoF status.

 

Most people here seem to be in love with Beane. Perhaps that's because he is a polished public-speaker and he is, at least apparently, very candid in sharing the 'behind the scenes", the thought process behind each decision, but the reality is that for the Bills to win a SB he (also) has to do much better.

 

And who knows, if part of the problem is McD getting too much in Beane's way when it comes to asset allocation and talent selection, well perhaps it's time for McD to take a step back and let the GM do his job.

Hell will freeze over before McD allows Brandon to do it all.  He will always be hovering over his shoulder for his defensive picks.

[Nitro]

Hindsight is 20/20.  Context counts.  Forgetting the Bills had weapons brought in through FA and that is why they drafted the way they did.  They needed a pass rusher and there was none in FA that fit their needs.  Spent draft capital on DLine instead of WR.  I have little issue with Beane.

[LABILLBACKER]

21 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

Allen is responsible for what, 85% of the offensive production?  It's a testament to Allen's elite level of contribution that over the last 3 seasons the Bills offense, which gets less then 40% of the teams cap resources, has been a top 3 unit by both yards & points.  Imagine the state of the Bills O without Allen.

 

 

That's exactly why eventually Josh will get fed up with this organizational philosophy. If McB doesn't go hard on OL, WR, etc this April, I could see a slow divide begin.  At the very least the contract controlled olineman should've been acquired in 19, 20, 21.  You ask your superstar qb to do 85% of the offensive production while Abbott & Costello waste picks on defensive busts.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

11.5% Draft Capital on the skill positions around Allen, and 8% of that is running back. 

 

3.5% on WR and TE combined.

 

And you have Joe Marino and Cover 1 talking about investing more into the defensive line. 

 

Aaron on Cover 1 thinks the weapons are just fine. 
 

 

Edited February 24, 2023 by Straight Hucklebuck

[LABILLBACKER]

4 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Which weapons? A washed OJ Howard and Crowder?… Emmanuel Sanders the year before? Come on. 

The tier 2 scrubs they've brought in to pretend they're pass catchers are only exceeded by the scrub brigade of Quessenberry,  Van Rotten & Saffold. 

[Dopey]

I get the feeling some of you only scored 100 on your exams in school. Unfortunately not all of us are perfect. 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

7 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

The tier 2 scrubs they've brought in to pretend they're pass catchers are only exceeded by the scrub brigade of Quessenberry,  Van Rotten & Saffold. 

It’s time.

 

Beane needs to tell McDermott the water spigot on defense is turned off.

 

Its time for some offensive investment.

 

Sorry you don’t get Edmunds, Poyer and another FA Safety. 

Sorry Sean and Leslie and new Senior Defensive Assistant, time to Coach up:

 

$100M Von

1st Round Rousseau

1st Round Oliver

2nd Round Basham

2nd Epenesa

FA DaQuan Jones

FA Tim Settle

Extended Milano

Extended 1st Round White

1st Round Elam

Extended Taron Johnson

Extended Micah Hyde
 

Get out there and find talent on Offense.

[MWK]

33 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

That's exactly why eventually Josh will get fed up with this organizational philosophy. If McB doesn't go hard on OL, WR, etc this April, I could see a slow divide begin.  At the very least the contract controlled olineman should've been acquired in 19, 20, 21.  You ask your superstar qb to do 85% of the offensive production while Abbott & Costello waste picks on defensive busts.

 And hopefully when that happens, the Pegulas will make the right choice and pick Allen over McDefense

[SCBills]

19 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

11.5% Draft Capital on the skill positions around Allen, and 8% of that is running back. 

 

3.5% on WR.

 

And you have Joe Marino and Cover 1 talking about investing more into the defensive line. 

 

Aaron on Cover 1 thinks the weapons are just fine. 

“Ok, well if you trade Ed Oliver, who are you replacing him with?”

 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

2 minutes ago, MWK said:

 And hopefully when that happens, the Pegulas will make the right choice and pick Allen over McDefense

Amen man.

 

McDermott has two strikes, really 2.5.

 

He blew that game in Houston, that’s 0.5 a point.

 

He gained that back by getting the Bills to the AFCCG in 2020. I’m not going to fault them for not being able to beat Chiefs in Arrowhead in their first good year.

 

13 seconds is a horrific loss that goes right with Wide Right, Music City.

 

And his team came out flat as a board against Cincinnati and the defensive scheme was another pathetic prevent shell all day mixed with obvious poorly designed blitzes. 
 

Use what you’ve got and get some results. 
 

He’s no good to this team if he needs the 2000 Ravens or 1985 Bears defense to win. 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

4 minutes ago, SCBills said:

“Ok, well if you trade Ed Oliver, who are you replacing him with?”

 

Exactly.

 

In one breath him and Greg Tompsett are gloating about all this cap space the Bills can generate, and they play the stupid you’re making a hole game.

 

Mike Ginnitti from Spotrac came on and said there are linebackers available that can do 85% of what Edmunds can do in 1/2 the cost. Sam Monson said the same.

 

Why do you have these guests on if you don’t want to listen to them? 
 

Anyways, Bruce Nolan is out there now saying it’s 60/40 defense now in the draft assets and Josh was 17.9% of that alone.

 

Ed Oliver is okay, he’s a guy. No way he’s getting a second deal. If someone was willing to give you a 3rd for him, take the $10M in savings and the pick and run. 

[LABILLBACKER]

27 minutes ago, MWK said:

 And hopefully when that happens, the Pegulas will make the right choice and pick Allen over McDefense

I know Terry had to be so incredibly focused on Kim. But eventually he's going to be asking tough questions on why Sean & Brandon have completely neglected their elite qb. 

[McDeerInTheHeadlights]

1 hour ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Hell will freeze over before McD allows Brandon to do it all.  He will always be hovering over his shoulder for his defensive picks.

 

I totally agree that's the case. The only person who could change it would be Terry, who is the one who created the situation in the first place...

 

The only hope is that eventually McD himself realizes that it's time to revise his approach (very unlikely, and I'd totally expect him to vouch for a DB or LB in round 1 and perhaps even in round 2, if Edmunds and Poyer leave and given White's uncertain return to his pior form), or Josh put his foot down an demand it (more likely in the mid-term, but I'm not sure it's happening anytime soon).

 

Anyhow, the draft is around the corner. Here's hoping they'll prove me otherwise.

 

[schoolhouserock]

2 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Hell will freeze over before McD allows Brandon to do it all.  He will always be hovering over his shoulder for his defensive picks.

McDermott “hovers over” BB’s shoulder and then doesn’t play his apparently hand picked rookies?

 

It’s teamwork like anything else.

[Doc Brown]

1 hour ago, Dopey said:

I get the feeling some of you only scored 100 on your exams in school. Unfortunately not all of us are perfect. 

If Beane took the SAT's during the 2nd round of the NFL draft that's pry the score he'd get.

[OldTimer1960]

The article doesn’t seem to take into consideration the draft picks traded to get into position to draft Allen.  It also doesn’t seem to account for the picks traded for Stephon Diggs.  

[hondo in seattle]

11 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

It’s time.

 

Beane needs to tell McDermott the water spigot on defense is turned off.

 

Its time for some offensive investment.

 

Sorry you don’t get Edmunds, Poyer and another FA Safety. 

Sorry Sean and Leslie and new Senior Defensive Assistant, time to Coach up:

 

$100M Von

1st Round Rousseau

1st Round Oliver

2nd Round Basham

2nd Epenesa

FA DaQuan Jones

FA Tim Settle

Extended Milano

Extended 1st Round White

1st Round Elam

Extended Taron Johnson

Extended Micah Hyde
 

Get out there and find talent on Offense.

 

The Bills are spending $124 million on offense versus $118 on defense.  The top two cap expenditures this year are offensive players (Allen, Diggs).  The Bills have invested in offense.  

 

What they haven't done is built a good OL.  Or found a good #2 WR.  

 

overthecap.com/salary-cap/buffalo-bills

[BuffaloRebound]

The fairest criticism is the high draft investment in RB’s who are JAG’s.  Spend that 2nd rounder and two 3rd’s on O-Line or WR’s, and find serviceable RB’s later in the draft like every other team does and this offense is in way better shape.  McBeane just keeps doubling down on drafting average RB’s with high picks. 

[Nextmanup]

15 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

As I said last off-season, they don’t value the WR position nearly as much as they should and they overvalue RB… really strange strategy….specifically in a passing league and with a top 3 QB…. There was no chance they were taking a 1st round WR lasts years draft and if there is a top defensive player with a top WR prospect available at 27 I am still skeptical they’ll go WR… regardless of what they do in FA.

I will enjoy a huge sigh of relief only AFTER we have made our first selection, and it is not a defender.

 

Same for the 2nd, and 3rd! 

 

I would not put it past them to take a DT with our first pick, especially if Oliver moves on.

 

 

[wppete]

Beane needs to stop being cute and completely cut off McDermott from

the draft process… My gut feeling is McDermott meddles and pressures Beane and Co. pick players. 

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

1 hour ago, OldTimer1960 said:

The article doesn’t seem to take into consideration the draft picks traded to get into position to draft Allen.  It also doesn’t seem to account for the picks traded for Stephon Diggs.  

 

You wouldn't need to consider the draft picks traded to get Allen, that's already baked into the value of the 7th overall pick. 

 

The Diggs trade would be one that should be accounted for though. 

[LABILLBACKER]

17 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

The fairest criticism is the high draft investment in RB’s who are JAG’s.  Spend that 2nd rounder and two 3rd’s on O-Line or WR’s, and find serviceable RB’s later in the draft like every other team does and this offense is in way better shape.  McBeane just keeps doubling down on drafting average RB’s with high picks. 

It's unfortunate and comical that he spends such high draft picks on mediocre RB's when the irony is we really don't run that much. Wouldn't it make common sense to load up on a dominant OL if I know I have an elite throwing qb? Then after that draft wrs. I'm targeting rbs late in the draft or udfa's.  Look at the production Andy got out of Pacheco.

[OldTimer1960]

46 minutes ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

 

You wouldn't need to consider the draft picks traded to get Allen, that's already baked into the value of the 7th overall pick. 

 

The Diggs trade would be one that should be accounted for though. 

I guess that is right, but I think it would be interesting to see if they had to trade more than the value of that 7th pick just to get there.  Probably not egregiously different, but I would not be at all surprised if they had to “overpay” in that trade.

1 hour ago, Nextmanup said:

I will enjoy a huge sigh of relief only AFTER we have made our first selection, and it is not a defender.

 

Same for the 2nd, and 3rd! 

 

I would not put it past them to take a DT with our first pick, especially if Oliver moves on.

 

 

I’m not as down on Beane as many here and I do think his preference this year will be for offense, but it looks like a poor to middling draft class for WR and interior OL.  Maybe there will be an OT worth taking in the first or they could consider a TE as that class looks strong and deep.  

[hondo in seattle]

2 hours ago, BuffaloRebound said:

The fairest criticism is the high draft investment in RB’s who are JAG’s.  Spend that 2nd rounder and two 3rd’s on O-Line or WR’s, and find serviceable RB’s later in the draft like every other team does and this offense is in way better shape.  McBeane just keeps doubling down on drafting average RB’s with high picks. 

 

Beane struck gold with Allen and deserves praise for that.  It took some clever maneuvering and propelled this team to relevance.  

 

Otherwise, it's not just the RBs who are JAGs.  Most of his draft picks are JAGs.   Not enough All-Pros and playmakers.  

[Nitro]

17 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Which weapons? A washed OJ Howard and Crowder?… Emmanuel Sanders the year before? Come on. 

The totality of his tenure.  The article covers several years of drafting.  Cody Ford was mentioned. You can not focus just on last year.  Overall they draft well. Their success on the field means drafting later and the chance of failure goes up.  Also each year the talent level available varies.  I am a realist and not an emotional fan.