Expected Points Added. The most important NFL stat is also almost unknown.

[Chaos]

https://www.nfeloapp.com/nfl-power-ratings/nfl-epa-tiers/

 

 

This stat is the likely the best way to identify the strongest teams in the NFL.   And it relates the most directly to the eye test.  It shows for example, the Bills have good defenses and offenses, but that the offense is measurably better than the defense. More than any other divisional round team, the Chiefs rely more on offense than other teams, but have an average, not bad defense   

This link explains the concept https://www.nfeloapp.com/analysis/expected-points-added-epa-nfl/. 

Apologies to those who were told there would be no math. 

Edited January 16, 2023 by Chaos

[Ralonzo]

Bucs and Vikes two worst among playoff teams? Seems right.

[US Egg]

I like pretty team logo charts.

[nucci]

actual points are more important than expected points

[BearNorth]

This would tell me that a great offense [KC] can trump a great defense [49'rs].  For years the talking heads have said defense wins Super Bowls.

[Mr. WEO]

“Bills Offense measurably better than Defense”

 

the score also reflects this

[BuffaloBill]

8 minutes ago, BearNorth said:

This would tell me that a great offense [KC] can trump a great defense [49'rs].  For years the talking heads have said defense wins Super Bowls.

 

 

The adage was probably true in the days when it was a “run” based league. It’ seems now you have to have a “good enough” defense and a really good offense that can score.  

Just now, Mr. WEO said:

“Bills Offense measurably better than Defense”

 

the score also reflects this

 

That was not true yesterday.

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, BuffaloBill said:

 

 

The adage was probably true in the days when it was a “run” based league. It’ seems now you have to have a “good enough” defense and a really good offense that can score.  

 

That was not true yesterday.

 

sure it was.  Offense hung 34 on Miami while the D gave up 31 to an Offense led by a 3rd sting QB with 100 career pass attempts.

[SoCal Deek]

1 minute ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

sure it was.  Offense hung 34 on Miami while the D gave up 31 to an Offense led by a 3rd sting QB with 100 career pass attempts.

Actually, the defense only gave up 24….and maybe less if our offense and special teams would’ve stopped giving the Dolphins the ball at midfield. 

[nucci]

2 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

sure it was.  Offense hung 34 on Miami while the D gave up 31 to an Offense led by a 3rd sting QB with 100 career pass attempts.

one TD was given up by the offense with Allen fumble

[T master]

1 hour ago, nucci said:

actual points are more important than expected points

 

I'm with you - Analytics are great on paper but i'd rather see points on the board or being scored on the field than on paper just saying ...

Edited January 16, 2023 by T master

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

Does anyone get extra conditional draft picks because of this? 🤔😇

[nucci]

Just now, T master said:

 

Analytics are great on paper but i'd rather see points on the board or being scored on the field than on paper just saying ...

getting tired of analytics. Some are ok but most are useless

[dave mcbride]

16 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

sure it was.  Offense hung 34 on Miami while the D gave up 31 to an Offense led by a 3rd sting QB with 100 career pass attempts.

The defense gave up 15 points yesterday: https://www.espn.com/nfl/game/_/gameId/401438002. The Dolphins started 3 drives in FG range yesterday and scored on a fumble recovery. On the three drives that started in FG range, they scored one TD, meaning the D gave up 5 points they could have denied (inclusive of the 2-pt conversion). That’s 16 points that the Dolphins O had to do zero work for. 15 points were legit, but even three of those came after a terrible Bass kick that gave the Dolphins the ball at the 40.

Edited January 16, 2023 by dave mcbride

[GoBills808]

Allen also finished second in league EPA 

[Wraith]

3 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

The defense gave up 15 points yesterday: https://www.espn.com/nfl/game/_/gameId/401438002. The Dolphins started 3 drives in FG range yesterday and scored on a fumble recovery. On the three drives that started in FG range, they scored one TD, meaning the D gave up 5 points they could have denied (inclusive of the 2-pt conversion). That’s 16 points that the Dolphins D had to do zero work for. 15 points were legit, but even three of those came after a terrible Bass kick that gave the Dolphins the ball at the 40.

Yeah, objectively speaking the defense played great and did exactly what was expected against a third string QB with some scary WRs. Both the running and passing output from the Dolphins were historically bad and all of their points up until the 4Q were basically gifted to them by the Bills offense and special teams.

 

Emotionally speaking though, the win would've felt a lot different if the defense didn't allow the Dolphins one and only actual TD drive to happen just as the offense was clicking again and had gone ahead by 10 in the 4Q. It felt like the Bills were about to run away with the game after the Gabe Davis TD (like they did against NE last week) but instead the defense gives up an easy looking drive and TD and suddenly the game is tight to the end. To their credit they locked things down again on the final two drives. The one drive definitely colors my perception of the defense and the game overall.

[K-9]

1 hour ago, BearNorth said:

This would tell me that a great offense [KC] can trump a great defense [49'rs].  For years the talking heads have said defense wins Super Bowls.

Question: can defense lose Super Bowls? 

[Mr. WEO]

1 minute ago, SoCal Deek said:

Actually, the defense only gave up 24….and maybe less if our offense and special teams would’ve stopped giving the Dolphins the ball at midfield. 

 

 

 

1 minute ago, nucci said:

one TD was given up by the offense with Allen fumble

 

my bad.    but after going up by 17 on the biggest playoff underdog in NFL history,  they gave up the lead  and went  down by 4 after the fumble TD.  Then, after the Offense scored  14 in under 3 minutes ,  Miami scored 11  unanswered.  Dolphins then melted down at 2 min with dumb penalties (false start, delay of game).  Even on that drive, the Bills D gave up 14 on a 2nd and 15.  They also gave up a 3rd and 19 on a drive that got Miami a FG, a 2nd and 15 on another scoring drive, a 2nd and 13 for a TD drive.

4 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Question: can defense lose Super Bowls? 

 

ask the Falcons

17 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

The defense gave up 15 points yesterday: https://www.espn.com/nfl/game/_/gameId/401438002. The Dolphins started 3 drives in FG range yesterday and scored on a fumble recovery. On the three drives that started in FG range, they scored one TD, meaning the D gave up 5 points they could have denied (inclusive of the 2-pt conversion). That’s 16 points that the Dolphins O had to do zero work for. 15 points were legit, but even three of those came after a terrible Bass kick that gave the Dolphins the ball at the 40.

 

is "points a team could have scored with TDs instead of FGs" a new analytic metric for Defenses?

[Big Turk]

2 hours ago, BearNorth said:

This would tell me that a great offense [KC] can trump a great defense [49'rs].  For years the talking heads have said defense wins Super Bowls.

 

Depends. Tampa Bay destroyed KC's offense in the SB. Denver's D destroyed Carolina's O in the SB.

 

If you have an elite front 4, defense CAN win championships.

 

Look at Giants both times against the Pats too.

[MJS]

33 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

sure it was.  Offense hung 34 on Miami while the D gave up 31 to an Offense led by a 3rd sting QB with 100 career pass attempts.

The offense turned the ball over a bunch of times in their own end, or allowed huge returns after turnovers, and literally fumbled the ball and allowed a defensive score.

 

The defense played really well considering the constant stabbing in the back that the offense continued.

[What a Tuel]

Are people really blaming the defense? Geez. Its like people don't even watch the game.

[Dr. K]

12 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

 

 

my bad.    but after going up by 17 on the biggest playoff underdog in NFL history,  they gave up the lead  and went  down by 4 after the fumble TD.  Then, after the Offense scored  14 in under 3 minutes ,  Miami scored 11  unanswered.  Dolphins then melted down at 2 min with dumb penalties (false start, delay of game).  Even on that drive, the Bills D gave up 14 on a 2nd and 15.  They also gave up a 3rd and 19 on a drive that got Miami a FG, a 2nd and 15 on another scoring drive, a 2nd and 13 for a TD drive.

 

ask the Falcons

 

is "points a team could have scored with TDs instead of FGs" a new analytic metric for Defenses?

The Dolphins' drives yesterday were:

 

38 yards (field goal--started the drive on the Miami 40 after Bass kicked off out of bounds)

18 yards (field goal--started drive on the Buffalo 48)

8 yards (field goal--started drive on the Buffalo 27)

18 yards (touchdown--started drive on the Buffalo 18)

 

and in the fourth quarter

 

75 yards (touchdown--started drive on the Miami 25)

 

plus the Miami defense scored in the third quarter on Josh's fumble. 

 

Conclusion:  The Bills defense played an excellent game. They allowed one serious drive in the entire game. All the other Dolphins' scores came as a result of turnovers or starting their drives in Bills territory. 

 

 

[Dablitzkrieg]

47 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

sure it was.  Offense hung 34 on Miami while the D gave up 31 to an Offense led by a 3rd sting QB with 100 career pass attempts.

The defense didn't give up 31

[Matt_In_NH]

52 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

Offense hung 34 on Miami while the D gave up 31 to an Offense led by a 3rd sting QB with 100 career pass attempts.

The Dolphins averaged 3.3 yards per play and gained a total of 231 yards.   The QB had like a 40% completion percentage.   The Dolphins scored 31 largely because of sloppiness by Josh along with some special teams issues.

[Mr. WEO]

Just now, Matt_In_NH said:

The Dolphins averaged 3.3 yards per play and gained a total of 231 yards.   The QB had like a 40% completion percentage.   The Dolphins scored 31 largely because of sloppiness by Josh along with some special teams issues.

 

Josh was sloppy, but The Offense gave them 2 double digit leads.  They won by 3.  This should have been a blowout, not a nail biter.

[Matt_In_NH]

I assume X axis is offensive EPA/play.

[Mr. WEO]

8 minutes ago, Dr. K said:

The Dolphins' drives yesterday were:

 

38 yards (field goal--started the drive on the Miami 40 after Bass kicked off out of bounds)

18 yards (field goal--started drive on the Buffalo 48)

8 yards (field goal--started drive on the Buffalo 27)

18 yards (touchdown--started drive on the Buffalo 18)

 

and in the fourth quarter

 

75 yards (touchdown--started drive on the Miami 25)

 

plus the Miami defense scored in the third quarter on Josh's fumble. 

 

Conclusion:  The Bills defense played an excellent game. They allowed one serious drive in the entire game. All the other Dolphins' scores came as a result of turnovers or starting their drives in Bills territory. 

 

 

 

there is a trend here to discount points scored on short fields, as though they pretty much are impossible to stop.

 

8 minutes ago, Dablitzkrieg said:

The defense didn't give up 31

 see above

[GunnerBill]

53 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Actually, the defense only gave up 24….and maybe less if our offense and special teams would’ve stopped giving the Dolphins the ball at midfield. 

 

Or our offense hadn't given them two short fields with turnovers. And the D gave the Bills O two short fields with turnovers. The D helped the O yesterday much more than the O helped the D.

 

There have been other games where the opposite has been true. The Bills are good all over. They just have to avoid stupid mistakes. 

[Matt_In_NH]

1 minute ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Josh was sloppy, but The Offense gave them 2 double digit leads.  They won by 3.  This should have been a blowout, not a nail biter.

 

This is why you play the games, sloppiness is a good way to end your season.  Should have been a blowout is right.  

[Tanoros]

58 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

sure it was.  Offense hung 34 on Miami while the D gave up 31 to an Offense led by a 3rd sting QB with 100 career pass attempts.

You can’t count the strip sack fumble return for the Miami offense, so that’s only 24. 

[Mr. WEO]

1 minute ago, Tanoros said:

You can’t count the strip sack fumble return for the Miami offense, so that’s only 24. 

 

see above

[What a Tuel]

4 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

there is a trend here to discount points scored on short fields, as though they pretty much are impossible to stop.

 

 see above

 

There is also a trend to complain the defense can't stop the 3rd string qb when the offense and special teams effectively give them a 40-75 yard head start and FG range from the get go.

 

To place the blame solely on the defense here is ludicrous.

 

[Tanoros]

5 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

there is a trend here to discount points scored on short fields, as though they pretty much are impossible to stop.

 

 see above

It’s not discounting the points scored, it’s recognizing the fact that the odds are Miami wouldn’t have scored as much if they didn’t have so many short fields (if you need an example read the post about EPA for reference about the truth of that statement). 

[Mr. WEO]

2 minutes ago, What a Tuel said:

 

There is also a trend to complain the defense can't stop the 3rd string qb when the offense and special teams effectively give them a 40-75 yard head start and FG range from the get go.

 

To place the blame solely on the defense here is ludicrous.

 

 

I didn't

[without a drought]

People should not have made such a big deal about losing close games last year, because people don't seem to like winning them either.

[Mr. WEO]

2 minutes ago, Tanoros said:

It’s not discounting the points scored, it’s recognizing the fact that the odds are Miami wouldn’t have scored as much if they didn’t have so many short fields (if you need an example read the post about EPA for reference about the truth of that statement). 

 

whether you drive 70 yards and kick a FG  or 30 yards, why would it matter?

 

Why would that Miami Offense yesterday be expected to have scored more TDs on those short fields than they did? 

[Chaos]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

Allen also finished second in league EPA 

Any serious person who understands the NFL ranks Allen as no worse than the third best QB in the league.  He raises up the rest of the talent and coaching on his team more so than any other player in the league. (In my opinion Andy Reid coaches offense better than the Bills).  

No one had built a perfect model for projecting who will the next game. But this model, which has no subjectivity, is better than any I have seen.  

 

Edited January 16, 2023 by Chaos

[Boatdrinks]

1 hour ago, T master said:

 

I'm with you - Analytics are great on paper but i'd rather see points on the board or being scored on the field than on paper just saying ...

The Bills don’t have too much trouble scoring points. 

[What a Tuel]

6 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

I didn't

 

You did. Are you really going to pretend you don't put the blame on the defense with these comments? The defense played an outstanding game.

 

50 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

my bad.    but after going up by 17 on the biggest playoff underdog in NFL history,  they gave up the lead  and went  down by 4 after the fumble TD.  Then, after the Offense scored  14 in under 3 minutes ,  Miami scored 11  unanswered.  Dolphins then melted down at 2 min with dumb penalties (false start, delay of game).  Even on that drive, the Bills D gave up 14 on a 2nd and 15.  They also gave up a 3rd and 19 on a drive that got Miami a FG, a 2nd and 15 on another scoring drive, a 2nd and 13 for a TD drive.

 

ask the Falcons

 

is "points a team could have scored with TDs instead of FGs" a new analytic metric for Defenses?

 

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

sure it was.  Offense hung 34 on Miami while the D gave up 31 to an Offense led by a 3rd sting QB with 100 career pass attempts.

2 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

“Bills Offense measurably better than Defense”

 

the score also reflects this

[Mr. WEO]

1 minute ago, What a Tuel said:

 

You did. Are you really going to pretend you don't put the blame on the defense with these comments? The defense played an outstanding game.

 

 

 

Thanks for documenting my posts (you decided to leave out "Josh was sloppy")  I didn't say that the blame was "solely on the Defense".  That was a fabrication you attributed to me.