Is Josh the de facto OC?

[Inigo Montoya]

I wonder what percentage of successful plays are a result of Dorsey's play design and call versus Josh going off-script and just making something happen?  With the offensive line play this year Josh hasn't had many opportunities to sit in the pocket and go through his reads and deliver the ball.  There seems to be very few quick hitters called by Dorsey for Josh.  On just about every snap some defender seems to come clean forcing Josh out of the pocket and into a scramble drill.

 

This season there are so many examples of Josh making something happen when the called play goes sideways.  Those points from off schedule Josh ad libs are probably the difference in a half dozen victories this year.  The Knox and Brown TDs this week were Josh doing Josh things.  When you also factor in the yardage and drive saving first downs from Josh making something happen with his legs, I think Josh is more often than not the on-field de facto OC.

 

Mahomes can definitely pull a rabbit out of his hat when he has to, but it seems like that the KC pass offense runs through Andy Reid 95% of the time.  I would guess the Bills are closer to 50%. There isn't another QB in the league who pulls their OC's fat out of the fire more often than Josh does. 

 

Dorsey is getting an interview for the Panthers head coaching vacancy.  If Dorsey gets that job he needs to buy Josh a Rolex. 

 

 

Edited January 10, 2023 by Inigo Montoya

[Dablitzkrieg]

No

[Inigo Montoya]

5 minutes ago, Dablitzkrieg said:

No

 

Thank you for your valuable contribution to the conversation.

 

🙂

[Billsfan1972]

I think the majority of Allen fans thinks that is the case.  Too much seemingly broken plays and improvisation by Josh (Cooks and Davis TDs that were rabbits pulled out of hats).

 

The Knox TD, give the line credit they gave him time, but NE was wary of Allen running.

 

The Diggs TD only Allen could make that 65 yard throw (and he did not step into it).  

 

So seldom do we see easy completions and receivers running open on let's say a wheel route or a simple swing with 10 yards of open field ahead.  

 

As said two things we don't see are the easy wide open receptions or the 50/50 or difficult ones.

 

However once in a while we see a good play call, just no where near often enough.

Edited January 10, 2023 by Billsfan1972

[WhoTom]

I think it's somewhere in between: Dorsey calls plays that Josh can modify as needed. I see a lot of option plays, whether they're run-pass options or QB options where he might hand off or he might run it himself, depending on how the D looks at the time of the snap. I also notice Josh calling quite a few audibles.

 

Josh is an improviser - that's part of his style, so any OC who wants to be successful had better run an offense that allows him to wing it.

 

[MJS]

Off script plays and scramble rules are a part of modern NFL offenses.

[eball]

I think the whole design of this offense is based around what you have at the QB position.  A play is called, and Josh has multiple options and decisions he can make.  Dorsey absolutely "calls" the game, but Josh's intelligence and knowledge of the offense allows him to make adjustments on the fly.

 

Those who oversimplify by saying Josh is "calling the game" are doing Dorsey a disservice.

 

[ajmac]

The Bills offense does rely on superhuman plays and very rarely do we scheme guys open like KC and SF. Dorsey and this “multiple offense” are constantly pushing the ball downfield trying to take advantage of Josh’s arm talent. I get it, but our guys don’t always run the correct routes and this then forces Josh to go off script as most of the route concepts are 5 and 7 step drops. That forces the O-line to protect for north of 4 seconds and that causes breakdowns.

We very rarely scheme up 3 step or quick throws with in breaking routes. The kind of routes that can set up RAC yards. We very rarely run scheduled screens and Josh doesn’t take the check downs when they are open.

This offense is a “push the ball down the field and put massive pressure on DB’s to cover. It eventually breaks down and we get plays, but it’s a tough thing to watch because there will be three and outs if we can’t convert on 3rd downs for more than 8 yards.

It may be a tough watch, but I understand what they are doing. Ask D coordinators?! They hate it too. I am not saying I agree, but I understand why they do it. 
 

Use Superman to make Superman efforts and watch them try to stop it.

 

Let’s hope Superman can stay healthy for 4 more games. 💪🏼‼️🙏

[KDIGGZ]

Josh is running my flag football offense. They call the play but then he just runs it himself or points to the receiver to go deep.

[Inigo Montoya]

Just now, MJS said:

Off script plays and scramble rules are a part of modern NFL offenses.

 

No argument there, the question I wonder about is what the breakdown is between schedule vs off schedule for the Bills.  I would guess the Bills have a higher percentage of off schedule plays than anyone.  The incredible thing is that it is so successful.

 

There is a famous line from a German general during WWII when asked why it was so hard to fight the American army.  He said that all warfare is chaos and the American army practices chaos on a daily basis.  That's how I see the Bills offense with Allen.

 

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

I think its designed around the strengths of the QB as it should be. Of course Josh has input into what he's comfortable with and likes vs not. Dorsey does a pretty good job in my view of not trying to put Blinders on Josh as some would do.

[SoCal Deek]

I am not concerned with who anyone wants to call the OC. My concern is that Josh needs better in-game mentoring. His next level of development must be in taking the wide open underneath receivers. They are there on every play! I’m hoping he learns that if he starts doing that early, the deeper stuff will naturally materialize. I think it’ll come with time. 

[Don Otreply]

Imo, outside of a not so good O line, Josh not taking the open short pass with minor frequency is a notable part of why we struggle at times, again, imo, taking the short stuff will make the rest of the offensive scheme click, and just plain wear out / demoralize defenses with greater efficiency. But what the “ F “ do I know…, 

[colin]

josh is a magician who gets stuff off of script and out of broken plays like no one else in the nfl.

 

he also is in an offense that attacks the whole field and he nearly never hits the quick outlet guy quickly.  a couple of those a game, especially early, and some slight wrinkles and this O becomes just a horrible nightmare to D.

[MJS]

11 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said:

 

No argument there, the question I wonder about is what the breakdown is between schedule vs off schedule for the Bills.  I would guess the Bills have a higher percentage of off schedule plays than anyone.  The incredible thing is that it is so successful.

 

There is a famous line from a German general during WWII when asked why it was so hard to fight the American army.  He said that all warfare is chaos and the American army practices chaos on a daily basis.  That's how I see the Bills offense with Allen.

Even if they have a higher percentage of off schedule plays, Dorsey is a part of making that possible as well. But surely everything is easier when you have an elite QB.

[Billsfan1972]

6 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

I am not concerned with who anyone wants to call the OC. My concern is that Josh needs better in-game mentoring. His next level of development must be in taking the wide open underneath receivers. They are there on every play! I’m hoping he learns that if he starts doing that early, the deeper stuff will naturally materialize. I think it’ll come with time. 

His % completion is right there with most QB's and he does take underneath stuff.  The issue is there are no receivers running or schemed open.  Our backs are underutilized and when was the last time a screen was drawn up that gained 15+ yards.

 

Again look at the YAC #'s that are not good.

[pocoboy]

52 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said:

I wonder what percentage of successful plays are a result of Dorsey's play design and call versus Josh going off-script and just making something happen? 

 

 

1. A large part of the 2020's style offense relies on the QB's read. I'm assuming each play-call has several alterations that can be made on the fly based on QB read.
2. If those reads are not correct, that has a decent chance of rendering the play-call ineffective, as the QB could choose an option that is ill-suited for the defensive call.
3. I believe that you need to have someone (OC, Passing Game Coordinator, QB Coach?) who would be unwinding the play at practice to help communicate to the QB and other skill players how best to optimize plays...whether by using eyes, feints, motion, etc.
4. I am worried that the change from Daboll to Dorsey has led to 3) being compromised in some fashion.
5. Thus when the pass play breaks down because a read is incorrect, the next step is to backyard-ball it.

Edited January 10, 2023 by pocoboy

[Livinginthepast]

Ive been wondering this since the beginning of the season. How many positive plays are 100% on Josh and his brilliance. It seemed to me that Dabol scripted more plays that actually worked than Dorsey has but I would love to see some sort of real breakdown of this.

[Donuts and Doritos]

[GoBills808]

19 minutes ago, Livinginthepast said:

Ive been wondering this since the beginning of the season. How many positive plays are 100% on Josh and his brilliance. It seemed to me that Dabol scripted more plays that actually worked than Dorsey has but I would love to see some sort of real breakdown of this.

This has been the offense for the last three years

[BillsFanSD]

I don't think there's any serious question that Josh sometimes goes off-script, and that covers up for some X's-and-O's breakdowns.  It's kind of hard to tell how much that happens as a casual fan of the game. But I'll bet folks inside OBD have a pretty good idea. 

[Beast]

I don’t think we would have witnessed Dorsey lose his ***** at the end of the Miami game if he wasn’t fully responsible for coaching that side of the ball.

Edited January 10, 2023 by Beast

[Beck Water]

58 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

I think the majority of Allen fans thinks that is the case. 

 

Then the majority of Allen fans think incorrectly

 

58 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Too much seemingly broken plays and improvisation by Josh (Cooks and Davis TDs that were rabbits pulled out of hats).

 

The Knox TD, give the line credit they gave him time, but NE was wary of Allen running.

 

Allen running is part of the Bills arsenal of weapons and its impact on defenses is part of the game plan

 

It has to be realized (and this is a point Kurt Warner and others have made) that on some "broken plays" where Allen runs or delays and makes a totally improbable throw, there is an "easy" button waiting for him in the form of a short throw with YAC to be made, but Allen seldom takes those when they are most effective (that is to say, immediately).

 

58 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

So seldom do we see easy completions and receivers running open on let's say a wheel route or a simple swing with 10 yards of open field ahead.  

 

As said two things we don't see are the easy wide open receptions or the 50/50 or difficult ones.

 

We have seen both.  Sometimes Allen misses the throw (wheel route to Hines).

 

The problem is, other teams scout tendencies.  Since it's been well known most of the season that Allen will ignore short quick completions with YAC in favor of trying to force the ball in to a double-covered receiver downfield, offenses play us accordingly.  It's relatively hard to scheme up "easy completions" when there are 3 guys running routes and 5 DB in coverage plus a dime or LB who can choose what to do.

 

Allen has spoken about this indirectly in his pre-Thursday night interview with Fitz.  He said that the QB has to see the field as an extension of the OC and that has taken some time, but they're getting to a good place now.  The implication is that Allen was NOT seeing the field as an extension of the OC at times.  I think it's true that there has been a disconnect between Allen and Dorsey at times.

 

58 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

However once in a while we see a good play call, just no where near often enough.

 

In the words of Josh Allen, "Okay"

Edited January 10, 2023 by Beck Water

[Albany,n.y.]

Th O-line needs some serious upgrading.  The reason Josh has to improvise so much is he is facing a pass rush way too often.   

[Logic]

I am among those who has not always been happy with Dorsey's playcalling this year.

HOWEVER, it is important to point out that the Bills offense finished the season ranked:

2nd in DVOA
2nd in PPG

2nd in YPG

7th in Rushing YPG 

7th in Passing YPG

In case it's not obvious, that's really good offensive production, especially for a first year offensive coordinator and a team that lacks a quality slot receiver and boasts a mediocre (and oft injured) offensive line.

The Dorsey hate/doubt is a bit much among Bills fans.

[Mr. WEO]

he leads the league in air yards beyond the 1st down marker so, ergo ipso facto he is ad hominem the OC....

[GoBills808]

4 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Then the majority of Allen fans think incorrectly

 

 

Allen running is part of the Bills arsenal of weapons and its impact on defenses is part of the game plan

 

It has to be realized (and this is a point Kurt Warner and others have made) that on some "broken plays" where Allen runs or delays and makes a totally improbable throw, there is an "easy" button waiting for him in the form of a short throw with YAC to be made, but Allen seldom takes those when they are most effective (that is to say, immediately).

 

 

We have seen both.  Sometimes Allen misses the throw (wheel route to Hines).

 

The problem is, other teams scout tendencies.  Since it's been well known most of the season that Allen will ignore short quick completions with YAC in favor of trying to force the ball in to a double-covered receiver downfield, offenses play us accordingly.  It's relatively hard to scheme up "easy completions" when there are 3 guys running routes and 5 DB in coverage plus a dime or LB who can choose what to do.

 

Allen has spoken about this indirectly in his pre-Thursday night interview with Fitz.  He said that the QB has to see the field as an extension of the OC and that has taken some time, but they're getting to a good place now.  The implication is that Allen was NOT seeing the field as an extension of the OC at times.  I think it's true that there has been a disconnect between Allen and Dorsey at times.

 

 

In the words of Josh Allen, "Okay"

His reads are deep to shallow

 

It's a function of the offense, he's not ignoring thrm

[Spiderweb]

Listen to the Off Tackle podcast with John Fina. He called out a few plays against the Pats that were poorly designed, let alone executed. I fear that Dorsey may not be the guy we need.

[Inigo Montoya]

4 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

This has been the offense for the last three years

 

I agree to a point but I think Josh ran Daboll's offense a little more by the book even during Josh's 4th season when he had already proven his ability to make off schedule plays.  Like some have mentioned above, I think there are less lay ups for Josh in Dorsey's offense.  Josh made a living throwing those quick WR slants and slot receiver come back routes under Daboll.  Those just don't seem to be in the playbook anymore. Most of the pre-snap motion, jet sweeps, and trickeration is gone too. 

 

I've heard that defenders are calling out the plays when the Bills offense lines up and I wonder if Dorsey's play calling is predictable but the offense is being saved by Josh's unpredictability.

 

🍻

 

 

[Nextmanup]

Hey Inigo, how about fixing your thread title?

 

 

[Beck Water]

7 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

His reads are deep to shallow

It's a function of the offense, he's not ignoring thrm

 

C'mon Man.  Yes, sometimes the reads are deep to shallow.  Sometimes the pre-snap or post-snap read is that there's an unblocked defender so the QB is supposed to take the quick route. 

 

We've all seen Josh dealing with that situation by evading (or stiff arming) the defender and buying time, buying time when the shallow routes are there.  That's not a "function of the offense" or the play design.

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Inigo Montoya said:

 

I agree to a point but I think Josh ran Daboll's offense a little more by the book even during Josh's 4th season when he had already proven his ability to make off schedule plays.  Like some have mentioned above, I think there are less lay ups for Josh in Dorsey's offense.  Josh made a living throwing those quick WR slants and slot receiver come back routes under Daboll.  Those just don't seem to be in the playbook anymore. Most of the pre-snap motion, jet sweeps, and trickeration is gone too. 

 

I've heard that defenders are calling out the plays when the Bills offense lines up and I wonder if Dorsey's play calling is predictable but the offense is being saved by Josh's unpredictability.

 

🍻

 

 

I guess I don't agree on the slants

 

Diggs catches about one of those per game

 

McKenzie doesn't get open like Beasley used to so agree on slot

 

Overall it's a very similar offense to Daboll, yes it can be predictable but the offensive line quality deteines a lot of what you can and can't run

 

Allen covers a ton of shortcomings both scheme related and personnel 

[Beck Water]

8 minutes ago, Spiderweb said:

Listen to the Off Tackle podcast with John Fina. He called out a few plays against the Pats that were poorly designed, let alone executed. I fear that Dorsey may not be the guy we need.

 

This is probably true.  I spent the first year of Daboll's tenure here trying to figure out WTF a play design was supposed to actually do, and a good part of the second year being able to see what Daboll was trying to do but thinking it was either 1) too cute or 2) ineffective

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Beck Water said:

 

C'mon Man.  Yes, sometimes the reads are deep to shallow.  Sometimes the pre-snap or post-snap read is that there's an unblocked defender so the QB is supposed to take the quick route. 

 

We've all seen Josh dealing with that situation by evading (or stiff arming) the defender and buying time, buying time when the shallow routes are there.  That's not a "function of the offense" or the play design.

No that's not his rule

 

Mac Jones and Allen could have taken quick throws on both blitzes they saw Sunday

 

Instead two TDs to Parker and Diggs

[Inigo Montoya]

3 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

Hey Inigo, how about fixing your thread title?

 

 

 

I don't know how I missed that...

 

Thanks  🍻

 

[Matt_In_NH]

He is the reason any OC will "look good" in Buffalo but he is not the OC.

[Inigo Montoya]

2 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

He is the reason any OC will "look good" in Buffalo but he is not the OC.

 

I think some QBs are coach killers like Mayfield and Murray.  Other QBs are meal tickets and I think that's what Josh is.  If Dorsey gets the Panthers HC job I think Joe Brady will step in as OC and get another HC position the following year after looking great with Josh under center.  The Bills OC position will be the hottest non- head coaching job in the league as long as Josh is there.

 

[Beck Water]

5 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said:

 

I agree to a point but I think Josh ran Daboll's offense a little more by the book even during Josh's 4th season when he had already proven his ability to make off schedule plays.  Like some have mentioned above, I think there are less lay ups for Josh in Dorsey's offense.  Josh made a living throwing those quick WR slants and slot receiver come back routes under Daboll.  Those just don't seem to be in the playbook anymore. Most of the pre-snap motion, jet sweeps, and trickeration is gone too. 

 

I've heard that defenders are calling out the plays when the Bills offense lines up and I wonder if Dorsey's play calling is predictable but the offense is being saved by Josh's unpredictability.

 

Defenders recognizing plays happens to just about every offense by this time of the year, and the Bills have some formations that are "tells".

 

I think Cover1 said that only about 20-30% of the offense has been retained from Daboll to Dorsey.

 

Part of the issue is personnel.  In Beasley, Allen had a slot receiver who could reliably diagnose and get open against zone coverage.  Allen trusted Beasley and they talked about how they worked together to watch film and discuss how they were going to play certain looks.  He also had a canny veteran who could get open against both man (provided he wasn't getting held) and zone coverage in Sanders, who could also play in the slot.

 

That guy is not on the team this year.  McKenzie is better able to get open against man coverage.  He's spottier in his abilities to get open against zone.  But rightly or wrongly, I just don't think Allen feels a rappore with McKenzie or watches film with him the same way he watched film with Beasley.  The "Tell" was something McKenzie said after Allen hurt his elbow and was limited in practice, that Allen told him "I didn't realize you were running that route that way, can you run it this way instead?"  Why would it take until week 9 and an injury for that conversation to take place?

 

Something is broken there, which was working with Beasley.   Maybe it's communication with Chad Hall who then coaches the WR on what Dorsey and Allen expect of each route.  Maybe it's that with canny veterans Brown then Sanders and Beasley, guys just "knew" stuff that McKenzie and Shakir and Cook need to have spelled out and be explicitly told.

 

People in another thread are responding to data that Dorsey isn't using Davis in the slot as much as Daboll did by saying "Dorsey should put Davis in the slot!".  Well, it's not so simple.  If you have Diggs and Sanders releasing and you put Davis in the slot, you get 3 WR running a route.  If you have Diggs and McKenzie releasing and you put Davis in the slot, you have 2 WR running a route if the defense presses or jams the receivers.  There's a personnel issue driving usage. 

 

The bottom line is with Crowder breaking a leg and Shakir perhaps not developing and contributing as the Bills had hoped, then Davis and McKenzie not being ready to take that step, the Bills have a talent gap at WR.

[Billsfan1972]

Regardless of what you think, the offence to me has been off most of the year.  20+ points is not the issue with this offence, but there are too many 3 & outs and disjointed drives.

 

I will repeat over and over that it is because we don't have simple pitch & catch plays and receivers don't make those tough catches and Josh seems to have to will the Bills too many times.

[Dablitzkrieg]

2 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

 

Thank you for your valuable contribution to the conversation.

 

🙂

You asked a question 🤔