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Continuing yards after catch (YAC) mystery


Inigo Montoya

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1 hour ago, Roy Hobbs said:

 

Disagree - KC and Cinci are in the top 5 YAC and Mahomes/Burrow are perfectly capable of throwing a ball 15-20 downfield. So why do they rank so high in YAC ? 

 

Because the Bills scheme uses Allen's range to force opponents to cover the entire field. 

9 minutes ago, DapperCam said:

True, but a 1 yard pass has a higher chance of being completed and a lower chance of being a turnover than a 10 yard pass. That is the allure. Same yards gained, less risk.

 

It's much easier to cover a 1 yard throw, especially if your rep as a QB is lacking arm strength. 

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2 hours ago, JohnNord said:

Part of the problem is that the Bills haven’t really have much of a screen game.  I’m not exactly sure why as it should favor their offensive line but the few screens they have called usually result in little yardage.  I can’t remember the exact number but I believe Mahomes led the league in shorter passes yet also led the league in passing yards.  

 

I also think part is Josh as a passer.  He’s more of an off-schedule thrower at QB rather than a timing passer. Also I think ball placement has been an issue at times.
 

Then you have WR’s like Diggs who is a great route runner but not a burner, Davis who can get open deep but doesn’t have a great route tree, and the rest of the WR’s

This. If you're not running screens, you're going to be dead last in this category. Screens start out as negative passing yardage plays but are designed to get 15-20 positive yards. Do enough of them, and you're going to look good in the YAC rankings. 

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17 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

Because the Bills scheme uses Allen's range to force opponents to cover the entire field. 

 

It's much easier to cover a 1 yard throw, especially if your rep as a QB is lacking arm strength. 

 

Maybe partially but I'm thinking it's a combination of that, lack of screen game, and Mahomes/Burrow's targets are just better (other than Diggs). 

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Definitely a play design thing.  Watch other NFL games and you’ll see a lot of quick throws at or behind the line of scrimmage.  I guess when you have a QB that can so easily gain those same types of yards with his legs, Bills don’t see the need to draw up those types of plays.  Davis and McKenzie could definitely execute those plays though.  I think at the beginning of his career, Daboll let Josh be Josh.  Now I think Josh is a mature enough QB to dink and dunk you down the field if that’s what defense is giving us.  

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The answer is obvious. The majority of YAC yards come as a result of crossing routes over the middle. For whatever reason, the Bills offense simply doesn’t feature that route tree, with the exception of the occasional Diggs catch, after which he tends to give himself up, reverse field, or go backwards. 

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As well as screens as previously mentioned, I don’t know why we dont try to get a screen game going with Hines and Cook.
 

It would be an added element teams would have to be concerned about. If it’s the QB spy that causes the issues in our screen game we need to doctor the play up a bit but it would lead to even greater yards.
 

Please Dorsey add it to our game. I’d love for us to be able to get the 60-90 easy screen yards Mahomes gets every week. 

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The simplest answer is the correct one - we have no pass catchers that are YAC specialists. If you have Deebo Samuel, Tyreek Hill, etc., you design plays to get your YAC specialist the ball in space and let them run. We don't bother with those types of plays because we don't have the right personnel. Our explosive plays are Allen throwing the ball 15+ yards past the LOS or taking off himself.

 

As for screens, defenses always have their eyes in the backfield and on Allen in particular when they play us and they're spreading the defense out. That makes it a lot more difficult to fool the defense long enough for the screen to be successful. If we ever get lucky and call a screen into a man blitz it would be a huge play but that's not how defenses are playing us.

 

Maybe Cook can be the YAC guy for us. We haven't made it a point to get him involved as a pass catcher yet. If we unleash that part of our offense in the playoffs it will be a huge advantage as something defenses aren't prepared for.

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3 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

It's crazy to me that the Bills pass catchers continue to rank so low on yards after catch.  It clearly isn't slowing the 12-3 offense down too much, I'm just not sure how to explain it.  We have an elite QB and solid receivers.  The Bills' offense struggled with YAC last season and I remember Josh said it was a point of emphasis for him this last off-season when he was working with Jordan Palmer, working on ball placement to allow his pass catchers to increase their YAC.  

 

To provide some context, the Chiefs are 1st in YAC, the Bills are 24th.  Austin Ekeler is 1st in YAC, Kelce is 2nd, Jefferson is 3rd.  Hill and Waddle are 7th and 8t.  Diggs is 23rd, Singletary is 60th, Knox is 99th, and Gabe Davis is 133rd in YAC.  Is it just the style of the offense we've been running, the types of routes being run, or how Josh is getting the ball in there?   Do the Bills have more sideline / out cutting routes than is typical?   Has anyone noticed some tendencies of the Bills' offense that can explain it?   For whatever reason, improved YAC hasn't happened this year.

 

The offense is still getting the job done and this isn't a post to be critical of the Bills offense.  As long as Josh and Co. keep stacking wins I don't care how they do it.  It's more of a technical question about how the Bills 7th ranked passing offense can also be 24th in YAC?  It seems a bit of an anomaly.

Is this YAC average per reception, or total YAC for the season?

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2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

The simplest answer is the correct one - we have no pass catchers that are YAC specialists. If you have Deebo Samuel, Tyreek Hill, etc., you design plays to get your YAC specialist the ball in space and let them run. We don't bother with those types of plays because we don't have the right personnel. Our explosive plays are Allen throwing the ball 15+ yards past the LOS or taking off himself.

 

As for screens, defenses always have their eyes in the backfield and on Allen in particular when they play us and they're spreading the defense out. That makes it a lot more difficult to fool the defense long enough for the screen to be successful. If we ever get lucky and call a screen into a man blitz it would be a huge play but that's not how defenses are playing us.

 

Maybe Cook can be the YAC guy for us. We haven't made it a point to get him involved as a pass catcher yet. If we unleash that part of our offense in the playoffs it will be a huge advantage as something defenses aren't prepared for.

I’ve heard this used as a valid reason before but couldn’t we use this to our advantage? Example: run a fake QB counter to the right which should pull the Spy in that direction as we set up and throw a screen to the other side? 

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25 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

Definitely a play design thing.  Watch other NFL games and you’ll see a lot of quick throws at or behind the line of scrimmage.  I guess when you have a QB that can so easily gain those same types of yards with his legs, Bills don’t see the need to draw up those types of plays.  Davis and McKenzie could definitely execute those plays though.  I think at the beginning of his career, Daboll let Josh be Josh.  Now I think Josh is a mature enough QB to dink and dunk you down the field if that’s what defense is giving us.  


I think you skipped the most obvious recipient of that pass: Hines

 

McKenzie is an erratic target, Davis isn’t quick twitch or a congested catch guy currently… getting the ball to Hines and even cook on some wheel routes out of the backfield or slants/crosses from the edge would be great. Think of guys like Reggie bush operating on the edge and often drawing a LB in coverage and then just having a corner or safety to beat for a big gain 

7 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Why all the focus on screens? I’m betting that the Dolphins lead the league in YAC, and the vast majority of those yards aren’t coming from screen passes. The Bills route tree doesn’t feature either crossing routes or rub routes. Both of those are where you really pile up YAC. 


our route tree doesn’t really feature the skill set of tyreek or waddle though either. Many of us were banging the drum all off-season for another perimeter player. 

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23 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

The answer is obvious. The majority of YAC yards come as a result of crossing routes over the middle. For whatever reason, the Bills offense simply doesn’t feature that route tree, with the exception of the occasional Diggs catch, after which he tends to give himself up, reverse field, or go backwards. 

This appears to be the case. Odd, as McKenzies best game by far as a Bill was @ NE last season. He was a feature in that game plan running crossing patterns all day. You’d think the Bills would do this more regularly but it’s not a part of their offense in general. 

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2 hours ago, Roy Hobbs said:

 

Disagree - KC and Cinci are in the top 5 YAC and Mahomes/Burrow are perfectly capable of throwing a ball 15-20 downfield. So why do they rank so high in YAC ? 

 

It's the players they're throwing to. Kelce and Chase are both YAC specialists. The Chiefs have made it a point especially in recent

weeks to get McKinnon involved as a pass catcher. The only player we have that has shown flashes of that ability is Cook.

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This Cincy game is one of the most important of the regular season.  I wonder if Dorsey has been working on these wheel route / screens in practice getting ready to uncork them in a game where the offense is going to have to score 30+ to win?

 

 

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19 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Why all the focus on screens? I’m betting that the Dolphins lead the league in YAC, and the vast majority of those yards aren’t coming from screen passes. The Bills route tree doesn’t feature either crossing routes or rub routes. Both of those are where you really pile up YAC. 

 

Here is the thing... the 2020 Bills used crossing routes more than almost anyone. Not sure what has happened to them since but intermediate crossers were like our go to play that season. 

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2 hours ago, Roundybout said:

Playcalling doesn't ask for a lot of plays like drags and shallow crossers that provide a lot of YAC potential. It's mostly posts and corner routes. Plus, our screen game STINKS. 

 

But part of this is also the way defenses play us. I see us run a lot of crossers against Miami because they still play man against us. Most defenses play zone against us so it's harder to mix those in. If the Bills ever want YAC to be a bigger part of this offense they need to make it a point to draft or sign a WR that can catch the ball in a window and then immediately sprint away from everyone. Easier said then done but they haven't actually tried.

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34 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

Definitely a play design thing.  Watch other NFL games and you’ll see a lot of quick throws at or behind the line of scrimmage.  I guess when you have a QB that can so easily gain those same types of yards with his legs, Bills don’t see the need to draw up those types of plays.  Davis and McKenzie could definitely execute those plays though.  I think at the beginning of his career, Daboll let Josh be Josh.  Now I think Josh is a mature enough QB to dink and dunk you down the field if that’s what defense is giving us.  

They Tried!!!  It hasn't worked - the swing passes to Singletary and Cook along with the crossers to McKenzie all are off.  From Josh putting too much air under it, to changing and putting it right on them - only to have them drop it.

 

They came in with the plan to incorporate this into the offense (from trying for McKissic to drafting Cook) and it hasn't materialized the way we hoped.  Now in the stretch run I think they are considering converting back.   When the 5 yards is needed there will be more lasers to Beas than there will be 3 yd crossers to McKenzie.  

 

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3 hours ago, JohnNord said:

Part of the problem is that the Bills haven’t really have much of a screen game.  I’m not exactly sure why as it should favor their offensive line but the few screens they have called usually result in little yardage.  I can’t remember the exact number but I believe Mahomes led the league in shorter passes yet also led the league in passing yards.  

 

I also think part is Josh as a passer.  He’s more of an off-schedule thrower at QB rather than a timing passer. Also I think ball placement has been an issue at times.
 

Then you have WR’s like Diggs who is a great route runner but not a burner, Davis who can get open deep but doesn’t have a great route tree, and the rest of the WR’s

The way Josh throws is a BIG part of it.  He tends to look around until he finds someone standing there saying "Throw me the ball, I'm open" and then he guns the thing into that window, but the receiver is starting from a dead stop with his back to the defense.

 

Hard to to turn that into a big YAC situation.

 

We also never throw crossing routes that are intended to hit the receiver while in motion with a flow to the play.

 

On top of all that, Diggs isn't the fastest guy out there.

 

It's not really a mystery to me; getting a speed burner absolute STUD No. 2 WR would be the first thing I would do this off-season.

 

Then I'd set about completely re-inventing the O line.

 

 

 

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the screen game has been an issue for this offense since day 1 of Josh being the QB.

At 1st it seemed like an arm issue, where Josh had difficulty with the trajectory & speed of the screen passes themselves, where they'd routinely get blown up or the blocking would be messed up.

As time has gone on there has been an improvement, like last season there was a conscious effort to integrate more screens into our gameplan.

This year they're non-existent. You have problems with pass blocking? Run some screens. You want some easy YAC yards? Run some screens.

Its been a pet peeve of mine for the past few years. Suppose it ties in with what plagues the offense sometimes as well, where we dont take enough of the easy underneath stuff.

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9 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said:

This Cincy game is one of the most important of the regular season.  I wonder if Dorsey has been working on these wheel route / screens in practice getting ready to uncork them in a game where the offense is going to have to score 30+ to win?

 

 

I'm hoping they have plays devised for both that 3 man front they put on KC is accounted for.

 

Also need to be ready to counter this spy on Josh stuff.  Thats where I hope the kinks of when Josh goes to one side and pulls the spy with him, a swing pass to Cook on the other side could really pay off.

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3 hours ago, DaggersEOD said:

Eyeball/gut answer is that JAs arm allows him to get balls through very tight windows leaving the ball carrier with little to no space to work with once they make the catch. 
 

It’s almost like all the YAC is sucked up in the “air yards” the ball travels. 
 

Im not a stats ninja but perhaps there’s a statistical relationship between air yards and YAC. Meaning more air yards tend to result in less YAC while less air yards tend to result in more YAC. 

 

It would be interesting to see where our pass catchers rank in “air yards/catch”. 
 

I guess what I’m saying is shorter routes equal more YAC and that’s not our game. 

This^^^
 

Josh, imo, appears to not like throwing the check down/screen pass, he does it but…, if we are having long passes that make up the difference, who the F cares about YAC? really, 

 

GO BILLS!!!

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28 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Why all the focus on screens? I’m betting that the Dolphins lead the league in YAC, and the vast majority of those yards aren’t coming from screen passes. The Bills route tree doesn’t feature either crossing routes or rub routes. Both of those are where you really pile up YAC. 

 

We featured crossing routes quite a bit when Daboll was here and still were near the bottom of the league in YAC per attempt. Teams with high YAC either call a lot of screens or have YAC specialists or both. We have neither.

 

People blaming Allen's ball placement have no clue. Better ball placement might lead to an extra few yards here and there in this offense, not nearly enough to make a difference. The difference in teams at the top and bottom of this statistic is NOT ball placement, that's inherently ridiculous.

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24 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Here is the thing... the 2020 Bills used crossing routes more than almost anyone. Not sure what has happened to them since but intermediate crossers were like our go to play that season. 

 

I don't have statistics to back this up but I believe back then defenses still thought man coverage was the best way to beat Allen. Our receivers just had to beat their man and Allen could throw the ball out in front of them. This year it's almost all zone, and teams know we want to run crossing routes so they're taking them away.

 

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2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I don't have statistics to back this up but I believe back then defenses still thought man coverage was the best way to beat Allen. Our receivers just had to best their man and Allen could throw the ball out in front of them. This year it's almost all zone, and teams know we want to run crossing routes so they're taking them away.

 

Yea I think that is the most logical explanation. Just haven't had chance to properly get into the tape to see if it stacks up.

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3 hours ago, JohnNord said:

Part of the problem is that the Bills haven’t really have much of a screen game.  I’m not exactly sure why as it should favor their offensive line but the few screens they have called usually result in little yardage.  I can’t remember the exact number but I believe Mahomes led the league in shorter passes yet also led the league in passing yards.  

 

I also think part is Josh as a passer.  He’s more of an off-schedule thrower at QB rather than a timing passer. Also I think ball placement has been an issue at times.
 

Then you have WR’s like Diggs who is a great route runner but not a burner, Davis who can get open deep but doesn’t have a great route tree, and the rest of the WR’s

 

Agree with this.

 

Much of the lack of RAC is on Allen as a passer and how defenses play him.

 

Allen is not a QB that looks for the layup first then the 3 point shot. His focus almost always is routes beyond the sticks before he would consider anything shorter. 

 

There are some short timing routes that dictate that he throws a quick pass on schedule.

 

Defenses play him assuming the intermediate to deep passes - usually rushing 4 and quickly dropping most everyone into shell coverage keeping any completions in front of them for limited RAC.

 

Some leave that LB or S with speed to mirror/spy Allen to ensure he does not take off.

 

We do not have the kind of receivers that will make defenders miss and can generate RAC providing Allen hits them in stride and they have that opportunity.

 

Our best RAC receivers will be our RBs. Cook, Hines, and Motor. They can all make folks miss and generate RAC stats, but Allen has not quite embraced those easy underneath outlet throws. Also I don't believe the Bills have introduced many designed receiving plays for them yet.

 

The more Allen forces himself to take those layups and works on his short-throw touch and accuracy, the better it will play out for our receivers downfield as teams will have to commit more to stop throws beneath the sticks.

 

Right now, I think most of our opponents feel that gamble of leaving that part of the field virtually undefended is worth the risk.

 

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3 hours ago, JohnNord said:

also think part is Josh as a passer.  He’s more of an off-schedule thrower at QB rather than a timing passer. Also I think ball placement has been an issue at times.

This

I love Josh but “ Three steps and balls out” is something we never see from him.

And if we do, he does not often place the ball in a way that the receiver can effortlessly continue forward.

Also, not availing himself of the check downs contributes to this. Cook and Motor underneath can be some serious money but he’s always 15-20 yards further downfield with his eyes.

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Imo, if Josh masters the check down/ screen/short pass, or however you want to say it, on top of his current repertoire, he will be unstoppable, this is his only really less than bright spot, he needs to take what he is given just a bit more often, and that will open up the mid to longer range stuff that he is partial too. Imo yac is nice but hardly crucial in our offensive style. I think we are in a sense wasting time and energy on something that is not gonna gain us a tremendous difference in the win loss column, i mean we are 12-3 after all and the current #1 seed in the AFC. 
 

GO BILLS!!!

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3 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

Imo, if Josh masters the check down/ screen/short pass, or however you want to say it, on top of his current repertoire, he will be unstoppable, this is his only really less than bright spot, he needs to take what he is given just a bit more often, and that will open up the mid to longer range stuff that he is partial too. Imo yac is nice but hardly crucial in our offensive style. I think we are in a sense wasting time and energy on something that is not gonna gain us a tremendous difference in the win loss column, i mean we are 12-3 after all and the current #1 seed in the AFC. 
 

GO BILLS!!!

 

I agree we have won, but I think if Allen can embrace those quicker throws and opportunities beneath the sticks and we run the ball well, it will present more single-coverage opportunities for Diggs and Davis, and coverage mismatches with Knox.

 

Keeping Diggs happy is important for this team too, so they need to find ways to keep him an active part of their game plans.

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, WideNine said:

 

I agree we have won, but I think if Allen can embrace those quicker throws and opportunities beneath the sticks and we run the ball well, it will present more single-coverage opportunities for Diggs and Davis, and coverage mismatches with Knox.

 

Keeping Diggs happy is important for this team too, so they need to find ways to keep him an active part of their game plans.

 

 

 

Yes, I agree, that’s what I was emphasizing in my post. 

 

GO BILLS!!!

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27 minutes ago, WideNine said:

 

I agree we have won, but I think if Allen can embrace those quicker throws and opportunities beneath the sticks and we run the ball well, it will present more single-coverage opportunities for Diggs and Davis, and coverage mismatches with Knox.

 

Keeping Diggs happy is important for this team too, so they need to find ways to keep him an active part of their game plans.

 

 

 

It was Josh doing just that in last year’s playoffs that resulted in Gabe having his banner day against KC. Teams simply can’t cover everything that the Bills can throw at them. 

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2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

The simplest answer is the correct one - we have no pass catchers that are YAC specialists. If you have Deebo Samuel, Tyreek Hill, etc., you design plays to get your YAC specialist the ball in space and let them run. We don't bother with those types of plays because we don't have the right personnel. Our explosive plays are Allen throwing the ball 15+ yards past the LOS or taking off himself.

 

As for screens, defenses always have their eyes in the backfield and on Allen in particular when they play us and they're spreading the defense out. That makes it a lot more difficult to fool the defense long enough for the screen to be successful. If we ever get lucky and call a screen into a man blitz it would be a huge play but that's not how defenses are playing us.

 

Maybe Cook can be the YAC guy for us. We haven't made it a point to get him involved as a pass catcher yet. If we unleash that part of our offense in the playoffs it will be a huge advantage as something defenses aren't prepared for.

 

Didn't we draft and trade for two pass catch RB's? 

 

YAC is 1 part WR, 1 part QB, 1 part coaching. There is some blame for all 3.

 

Allen sucks at selling the screen, he stares it down. (The long wind up on the hand off is weird too. Bad enough for me at home to know whether if it is play action or legit run). He also seems to almost refuse to look at the underneath throw in space in favor of the low percentage down field throw that splits defenders. He does it because he can with more regularity than most, but it comes at a certain cost if you miss. That means more passes to "bigger"  and more covered outside WR's rather than shiftier players in space. 

 

I don't think Diggs is a real threat with the ball in his hands. Diggs threat is breaking your ankles and beating you on a route. Not making you miss with the ball in his hands.

It seems like a real struggle to get the screen and underneath game going. We have devoted resources to guys with speed and quickness but rarely commit to getting them involved. I don't buy the "trust" issue. Figure it out and make the plays when needed. Not throwing to the open guy or giving a guy a chance because, trust or whatever is dumb. Get Cook and Hines involved to do what you brought them into do. Letting Hodgins hit waivers was stupid on a WR deficient team. Both are on the staff.

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I feel this has been hashed over many times

 

Josh Allen and this offense is not a rhythm based attack… YAC Is typically designed on rhythm throws and drawn up designs … screens.. pick plays

 

Josh is a thrower of the football … he wants AIR YARDS… he wants to push the ball downfield and make you respect his arm… he throws to the boundary … 

 

most YAC plays are designed within 10 yards of the LoS… our offense thrives 15-20 yards downfield where the windows are tighter and the separation is less

 

You get Less YAC when you are throwing dimes 30 yards to the corner of the sideline

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8 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

This whole YAC thing is dumb. Who cares about YAC when you have a QB who can throw a ball 15-20 yards or more every play? If you're noodle arm Mac Jones then YAC starts to matter. Not if your Josh Allen.

 

Disagree.  When Tua or Mahomes throws a ball for 5 yards and that receiver runs 20 yards more, it makes your offense a whole new super power.

8 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

Because we don’t have Austin Ekeler.  
 

Or Hill.  
 

Or Waddle. 
 

 

Singletary is 60th.  There’s the answer.  And McKenzie hasn’t had enough catches.  
 

Our QB runs more then almost all the others.  
 

Last year was worse because we got almost nothing after the catch from Cole.  And RB 2 was Moss.  

YAC isn’t just about the QB hitting guys in stride to be able to keep them running. 
 

It’s also about elite agility guys making people miss or running by everyone.  

 

Since using Cook more - say around week 10 - I wonder where we rank.  
 


 

This stat is an easy eye test.  Does this team have speed?   
 

Overall on offense not really.  Cook and McKenzie.  That’s it.  Davis and Diggs game isn’t really a speed/make you miss game

 

Hines is actually our fastest guy on offense now but we havent used him much and when we have its usually an overthrow.

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6 hours ago, BuffaloRebound said:

Definitely a play design thing.  Watch other NFL games and you’ll see a lot of quick throws at or behind the line of scrimmage.  I guess when you have a QB that can so easily gain those same types of yards with his legs, Bills don’t see the need to draw up those types of plays.  Davis and McKenzie could definitely execute those plays though.  I think at the beginning of his career, Daboll let Josh be Josh.  Now I think Josh is a mature enough QB to dink and dunk you down the field if that’s what defense is giving us.  

 

We do run those plays.  They are usually stuffed at the line though.

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5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Here is the thing... the 2020 Bills used crossing routes more than almost anyone. Not sure what has happened to them since but intermediate crossers were like our go to play that season. 

 

Yeah, I have felt like that too. I hear people say that the offense is largely the same.  Beasley said something like that when he got signed.  Yet, the offense does not look the same to me.  I dont study film or anything but it just not seem the same to me.

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1 hour ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Disagree.  When Tua or Mahomes throws a ball for 5 yards and that receiver runs 20 yards more, it makes your offense a whole new super power.

 

 

Right. They have to do that. We don't. Allen can throw a ball 20+ yards. Same result.

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48 minutes ago, special-teams said:

Great observations!  When was our last screen play??

They’ve tried a few that have been so poorly executed Allen aborted and threw the ball in the dirt.  
 

They also tried a WR screen to Diggs against Miami.  Shakir struggled to block his man and a Miami defender came downhill to make a play.  The result was 2 defenders coming for Diggs and a loss of 2 yards

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