AFC Playoff Teams projections

[TFBillsfan]

Week 14 with four HUGE games remaining. If Bills beat MIA, they “should” do no worse than the 3 seed. If the Bills win out, they’ll finish 14-3 and everything goes thru Orchard Park with an extra week of rest.  Here are my predictions.

 

1. Buffalo     14-3    Wins against MIA, CHI, CIN and NE

2. KC.           14-3    Wins against Hou, SEA, DEN and LVR

3. CIN.          13-4    Wins against TB, NE and BALT, Lose to the Bills

4. TN.           9-8      Wins against HOU and Jax, Lose to LAC and DAL

5. Balt.         12-5     Wins against CLE, ATL and Pitt, lose to Cinncy

6. LAC.         11-6     Wins against TN, Indy, LVR and Den

7.  MIA.         10-7     Wins against GB and NE, lose to BUF and NYJ

 

Thoughts? Anyone seeing it different? Obviously ALOT can change but beating MIA puts the Bills in a good position.

 

 

 

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

This season flew by so fast. Can’t believe there is only 4 reg season games left. I remember the opener against the Rams like it was yesterday. 

[jlgarsh]

I really thought Denver would come back yesterday before Russ got hurt. He turned back the clock 5 years or so and looked the best he has since week 1. 

[LEBills]

3 minutes ago, TFBillsfan said:

Week 14 with four HUGE games remaining. If Bills beat MIA, they “should” do no worse than the 3 seed. If the Bills win out, they’ll finish 14-3 and everything goes thru Orchard Park with an extra week of rest.  Here are my predictions.

 

1. Buffalo     14-3    Wins against MIA, CHI, CIN and NE

2. KC.           14-3    Wins against Hou, SEA, DEN and LVR

3. CIN.          13-4    Wins against TB, NE and BALT, Lose to the Bills

4. TN.           9-8      Wins against HOU and Jax, Lose to LAC and DAL

5. Balt.         12-5     Wins against CLE, ATL and Pitt, lose to Cinncy

6. LAC.         11-6     Wins against TN, Indy, LVR and Den

7.  MIA.         10-7     Wins against GB and NE, lose to BUF and NYJ

 

Thoughts? Anyone seeing it different? Obviously ALOT can change but beating MIA puts the Bills in a good position.

 

 

 

If Cinnci loses to the Bills and wins the rest that would put them at 12-5 rather than 13-4. Not sure how the tiebreakers with Baltimore would go after that.

[TFBillsfan]

4 minutes ago, LEBills said:

If Cinnci loses to the Bills and wins the rest that would put them at 12-5 rather than 13-4. Not sure how the tiebreakers with Baltimore would go after that.

Good catch, CIN will still win the division as they would have beaten Balt twice.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Cincinnati beats Buffalo but loses another game maybe even two to Baltimore and Tampa.

I thought Denver had a shot against KC, now I think it will be the Raiders that beats them.

Bills still get home field throughout. 

[Airseven]

ESPN has a nifty playoff machine. My simulation ends up at:

 

1 Chiefs 14-3

2 Bengals 13-4

3 Bills 13-4

4 Titans 9-8

5 Ravens 11-6

6 Chargers 10-7

7 Dolphins 10-7

 

1 Eagles 15-2

2 49ers 12-5

3 Vikings 11-6

4 Bucs 8-9

5 Cowboys 12-5

6 Commanders 9-7-1

7 Giants 9-7-1

 

[Cotton Fitzsimmons]

8 minutes ago, TFBillsfan said:

Good catch, CIN will still win the division as they would have beaten Balt twice.

 

YE OLE believes that the Ravens would win the division in this case. The Ravens beat the Bengals in October so they would split in this case. But the Ravens are 3-0 in division right now and the Bengals are 2-3. That should give the Ravens the tiebreaker if they both finish 12-5 and knock the Bengals to the WC. 

[chongli]

All the pundits a few weeks ago were sayiing Baltimore was a lock for the division title with their easy schedule. Oh, how things have changed.

 

21 minutes ago, Airseven said:

 

4 Bucs 8-9

5 Cowboys 12-5

6 Commanders 9-7-1

7 Giants 9-7-1

 

 

If the Seahawks finish with a better record than the NFC South champion and miss the playoffs, they are going to be pissed. Maybe it is time for eight playoff teams and no bye in each conference, like @Big Turk advocated for. Why should Tampa Bay, or whoever, with a losing record, be allowed in the playoffs? If they lost to New Orleans last week like they should have, they would be 5-8 and Carolina would be in first place in the division at 5-8, LOL.

Edited December 12, 2022 by chongli

[BLeonard]

32 minutes ago, TFBillsfan said:

Good catch, CIN will still win the division as they would have beaten Balt twice.

Baltimore already beat Cincinnati earlier this season.

[FilthyBeast]

48 minutes ago, TFBillsfan said:

Week 14 with four HUGE games remaining. If Bills beat MIA, they “should” do no worse than the 3 seed. If the Bills win out, they’ll finish 14-3 and everything goes thru Orchard Park with an extra week of rest.  Here are my predictions.

 

1. Buffalo     14-3    Wins against MIA, CHI, CIN and NE

2. KC.           14-3    Wins against Hou, SEA, DEN and LVR

3. CIN.          13-4    Wins against TB, NE and BALT, Lose to the Bills

4. TN.           9-8      Wins against HOU and Jax, Lose to LAC and DAL

5. Balt.         12-5     Wins against CLE, ATL and Pitt, lose to Cinncy

6. LAC.         11-6     Wins against TN, Indy, LVR and Den

7.  MIA.         10-7     Wins against GB and NE, lose to BUF and NYJ

 

Thoughts? Anyone seeing it different? Obviously ALOT can change but beating MIA puts the Bills in a good position.

 

 

 

 

I think those are the 7 teams but don't agree with seeding:

 

1) KC (14-3) - yes they play down to their level of competition at times but they are going through the motions as a team that knows they are likely on their way to another chamionship or SB appearance at minimum.

2) CIN (13-4) - they are still quietly the hottest team in the league right now despite their own injury issues.

3) MIA (12-5) - still believe they are a SB contender and are going to win out starting this week against us unfortunately

4) TN (9-8) - in a tailspin but can't see anybody catching them because Jags are in a too big a hole

5) BUF (12-5) WC #1 will lose to MIA and CIN but get the Titans in round 1 to hopefully advance to divisional

6) BAL (12-5) Loved this team to win the division but won't hold up especially without Jackson.

7) LAC (11-6) They will probably win out and be the hot team nobody wants to face in the playoffs.

[frostbitmic]

1. KC 14-3

2. Cincinnati 13-4

3. Buffalo 13-4

4. Tennessee 9-8

5. LA 10-6-1

6. Miami 10-7

7. Baltimore 10-7

[TheBrownBear]

1 hour ago, TFBillsfan said:

Week 14 with four HUGE games remaining. If Bills beat MIA, they “should” do no worse than the 3 seed. If the Bills win out, they’ll finish 14-3 and everything goes thru Orchard Park with an extra week of rest.  Here are my predictions.

 

1. Buffalo     14-3    Wins against MIA, CHI, CIN and NE

2. KC.           14-3    Wins against Hou, SEA, DEN and LVR

3. CIN.          13-4    Wins against TB, NE and BALT, Lose to the Bills

4. TN.           9-8      Wins against HOU and Jax, Lose to LAC and DAL

5. Balt.         12-5     Wins against CLE, ATL and Pitt, lose to Cinncy

6. LAC.         11-6     Wins against TN, Indy, LVR and Den

7.  MIA.         10-7     Wins against GB and NE, lose to BUF and NYJ

 

Thoughts? Anyone seeing it different? Obviously ALOT can change but beating MIA puts the Bills in a good position.

 

 

 

Cincy already has 4 losses, so that would make them 12-5.  Not sure if that kicks them to the 5 seed or not.

[DrBob806]

KC 14-3

Cincy 13-4

Bills 13-4

Tenn 8-9

Balt 11-6

LAC 10-7

NYJ 10-7

 

Chargers would play at Bills. They're kind of schizoid, but I don't see them winning that. So the Bills would have the Cincy/NYJets winner in round 2.

[GunnerBill]

Right 7 teams.

 

KC #1

BUF #2

BALT #3

TEN #4

CIN #5

LAC #6

MIA #7

 

MIA @ BUF

LAC @ BALT

CIN @ TEN

 

LAC @ KC

CIN @ BUF

 

BUF @ KC

 

I still think holding serve and securing the #1 seed is essential but have a bad feeling we lose to the Bengals who in turn I think lose to the Ravens again. If it played put this way it would mean a third trip to Arrowhead in 3 post seasons.

[Livinginthepast]

1 hour ago, jlgarsh said:

I really thought Denver would come back yesterday before Russ got hurt. He turned back the clock 5 years or so and looked the best he has since week 1. 

Im hoping the Broncos can win the rematch. If they had not spotted them a sizable lead they might have had an upset.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

The Buffalo/Cincy game is going to be for all the marbles. 
 

I think if the Bills win, they get homefield and it sets up for a possible 2 vs 7 matchup between KC and LAC. A healthy LA team can win that one. 

[TH3]

12 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Right 7 teams.

 

KC #1

BUF #2

BALT #3

TEN #4

CIN #5

LAC #6

MIA #7

 

MIA @ BUF

LAC @ BALT

CIN @ TEN

 

LAC @ KC

CIN @ BUF

 

BUF @ KC

 

I still think holding serve and securing the #1 seed is essential but have a bad feeling we lose to the Bengals who in turn I think lose to the Ravens again. If it played put this way it would mean a third trip to Arrowhead in 3 post seasons.

How do Bills lose to Bengals and have a higher seed?

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, TH3 said:

How do Bills lose to Bengals and have a higher seed?

 

I explained it above. Bills lose to Bengals. Bengals lose to Ravens. They are a game behind us right now so if we beat MIA, CHI and NE they have to win out to have a higher seed than us.

[Mango]

I think the Jets/Dolphins game is likely to be a win and your in game for both teams. The Jets have more momentum at the moment. I wouldn't be so quick to pencil Miami in. 

[ganesh]

13 hours ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

This season flew by so fast. Can’t believe there is only 4 reg season games left. I remember the opener against the Rams like it was yesterday. 

so true.

[Mango]

11 hours ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

The Buffalo/Cincy game is going to be for all the marbles. 
 

I think if the Bills win, they get homefield and it sets up for a possible 2 vs 7 matchup between KC and LAC. A healthy LA team can win that one. 

 

 

I think the Bills could lose that and still be the 1 or 2 seed (KC). Bengals still have to play the Ravens again who currently lead the division. 

[SoCal Deek]

It’s going to be race to the finish line this month with the Bills, Chiefs and Bengals. KC has to be considered in the drivers seat with their remaining schedule. But…the Bills have it all in front of them. Win out and you get a week off. 

[Mango]

6 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

It’s going to be race to the finish line this month with the Bills, Chiefs and Bengals. KC has to be considered in the drivers seat with their remaining schedule. But…the Bills have it all in front of them. Win out and you get a week off. 

 

I have a feeling the Pats are going to mess up seeding for somebody. They play Buffalo, Cincinnati, and Miami down the stretch. Something in my gut says they win one of those games and it either changes the 1 seed or boots Miami from the playoffs. 

[SoCal Deek]

Just now, Mango said:

 

I have a feeling the Pats are going to mess up seeding for somebody. They play Buffalo, Cincinnati, and Miami down the stretch. Something in my gut says they win one of those games and it either changes the 1 seed or boots Miami from the playoffs. 

You could be right and that’s why I say KC is sitting there in a nice spot. The Bills however control their own destiny. At some point you just need to win them all….just like in the playoffs. 

[Greg S]

We will see how this plays out, but I am pretty confident the Bills will beat the Dolphins, Bears, and Pats. It's the Bengals game that will be tough. Win that one and the Bills probably have the #1 seed.

[PatsFanNH]

7 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

I have a feeling the Pats are going to mess up seeding for somebody. They play Buffalo, Cincinnati, and Miami down the stretch. Something in my gut says they win one of those games and it either changes the 1 seed or boots Miami from the playoffs. 

My gutt says they beat Miami in Foxboro in a very cold game and they sack Tua 6 times. Pats end up w the 6 seed and face Baltimore and win, (Jackson is contained and gets his usual playoff yips.) then get  crushed by Buffalo in Buffalo. Lol

[SoCal Deek]

3 minutes ago, Greg S said:

We will see how this plays out, but I am pretty confident the Bills will beat the Dolphins, Bears, and Pats. It's the Bengals game that will be tough. Win that one and the Bills probably have the #1 seed.

I hate to be ‘that guy’ but if the Bills win all four they ABSOLUTELY have the #1 seed. It doesn’t make any difference which game they lose. 

[PatsFanNH]

4 minutes ago, Greg S said:

We will see how this plays out, but I am pretty confident the Bills will beat the Dolphins, Bears, and Pats. It's the Bengals game that will be tough. Win that one and the Bills probably have the #1 seed.

Bears game could be a trap game for the Bills. Their D isn’t terrible and they can be sneaky good at times on O. But if the Bills play like they can they shouldn’t have an issue but they could be caught looking ahead to the Bengals 

[SoCal Deek]

2 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

My gutt says they beat Miami in Foxboro in a very cold game and they sack Tua 6 times. Pats end up w the 6 seed and face Baltimore and win, (Jackson is contained and gets his usual playoff yips.) then get  crushed by Buffalo in Buffalo. Lol

Why would the Bills go to Foxboro to play Miami? 😉

[Greg S]

Just now, SoCal Deek said:

I hate to be ‘that guy’ but if the Bills win all four they ABSOLUTELY have the #1 seed. It doesn’t make any difference which game they lose. 

 

I know. I meant it as the Bengals game is the only one the Bills might lose assuming they handle their business in the other games. Obviously, upsets happen but they should win against the Fins, Pats, Bears.

[PatsFanNH]

Just now, SoCal Deek said:

Why would the Bills go to Foxboro to play Miami? 😉

I was commenting on what the other person said about the Pats Bering a spoiler. I think it be Miami, who has not looked good for 3 straight (I am hoping 4 ) weeks. 

[Mango]

3 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

My gutt says they beat Miami in Foxboro in a very cold game and they sack Tua 6 times. Pats end up w the 6 seed and face Baltimore and win, (Jackson is contained and gets his usual playoff yips.) then get  crushed by Buffalo in Buffalo. Lol

 

This is not real math. But messing around in the playoff machine, it feels like the only way for NE to end up in the 6 seed is for them to at least go 2-1 against Buffalo, Cincinnati, and Miami. 

[Franco_92]

6 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

Bears game could be a trap game for the Bills. Their D isn’t terrible and they can be sneaky good at times on O. But if the Bills play like they can they shouldn’t have an issue but they could be caught looking ahead to the Bengals 

The Bills won't look ahead to the bengals, that game is like 10 days after the bears game

[PatsFanNH]

Just now, Mango said:

 

This is not real math. But messing around in the playoff machine, it feels like the only way for NE to end up in the 6 seed is for them to at least go 2-1 against Buffalo, Cincinnati, and Miami. 

Well I see the phins losing 3 of their last 4 games which puts them at 9-8 which would give them the same record as the Pats and I think the Pats get the tie breaker.. I also see the Jets losing out. (Lions, Seahawks,and Jags all playing well and 2 also in the playoff mix with better O’s) 

 

Chargers are the wild card to me since you never know which team shows up. They could win out or lose 3 of 4.

6 minutes ago, arcane said:

The Bills won't look ahead to the bengals, that game is like 10 days after the bears game

True but they come right after a tough Phins game and it could happen. Even unfocused the Bills should beat them just saying it could be a tougher game than you think. 

[Franco_92]

2 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

Well I see the phins losing 3 of their last 4 games which puts them at 9-8 which would give them the same record as the Pats and I think the Pats get the tie breaker.. I also see the Jets losing out. (Lions, Seahawks,and Jags all playing well and 2 also in the playoff mix with better O’s) 

 

Chargers are the wild card to me since you never know which team shows up. They could win out or lose 3 of 4.

True but they come right after a tough Phins game and it could happen. Even unfocused the Bills should beat them just saying it could be a tougher game than you think. 

I agree that the game could be tough. Fields can give anyone fits and the weather could be garbage too

[BigPappy]

15 hours ago, TFBillsfan said:

Week 14 with four HUGE games remaining. If Bills beat MIA, they “should” do no worse than the 3 seed. If the Bills win out, they’ll finish 14-3 and everything goes thru Orchard Park with an extra week of rest.  Here are my predictions.

 

1. Buffalo     14-3    Wins against MIA, CHI, CIN and NE

2. KC.           14-3    Wins against Hou, SEA, DEN and LVR

3. CIN.          13-4    Wins against TB, NE and BALT, Lose to the Bills

4. TN.           9-8      Wins against HOU and Jax, Lose to LAC and DAL

5. Balt.         12-5     Wins against CLE, ATL and Pitt, lose to Cinncy

6. LAC.         11-6     Wins against TN, Indy, LVR and Den

7.  MIA.         10-7     Wins against GB and NE, lose to BUF and NYJ

 

Thoughts? Anyone seeing it different? Obviously ALOT can change but beating MIA puts the Bills in a good position.

 

 

 

 KC has the easiest remaining schedule so unless someone REALLY surprises them, they will for sure finish their season 14-3. That Cincy game scares me for Buffalo, playing in Cincy. They are playing some really great well rounded football right now and if i am being honest and realistic, that game could go either way. If we lose that game, it will end up being us and KC in KC... AGAIN for the AFC Championship and I REALLY want that to be a home game for us. 

[streetkings01]

I would love to see Miami or the NYJ open up wildcard weekend against KC…….I could see either pulling the upset.

41 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

Bears game could be a trap game for the Bills. Their D isn’t terrible and they can be sneaky good at times on O. But if the Bills play like they can they shouldn’t have an issue but they could be caught looking ahead to the Bengals 

Bears have the 4th worst defense based on DVOA……Bears are not a good team at all. Their #1 Wr was also lost for the season. 3-10…..Bills will dismantle the Bears……I see that score being a 35-13 type game.

[PatsFanNH]

13 minutes ago, streetkings01 said:

I would love to see Miami or the NYJ open up wildcard weekend against KC…….I could see either pulling the upset.

Bears have the 4th worst defense based on DVOA……Bears are not a good team at all. Their #1 Wr was also lost for the season. 3-10…..Bills will dismantle the Bears……I see that score being a 35-13 type game.

DVOA is a geek stat. They are not terrible on D the issue is they are out there to much. 

[Greg S]

26 minutes ago, streetkings01 said:

I would love to see Miami or the NYJ open up wildcard weekend against KC…….I could see either pulling the upset.

Bears have the 4th worst defense based on DVOA……Bears are not a good team at all. Their #1 Wr was also lost for the season. 3-10…..Bills will dismantle the Bears……I see that score being a 35-13 type game.

 

I could see the Jets pulling off the upset because of their defense. KC would score too much on the Fins and no way Tua as limited as he is wins a shootout with Mahomes