Week 13: Bills at Pats on TNF

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

16 minutes ago, Process said:

 

Let's see the receipts. 

 

And if either of you wants another $50 on pats +4.5 no juice, loser donates to charity, let me know!

There's your receipt. Gonna bet a few other underdogs this weekend, so I'll pass on your invite. But thanks!

Edited November 30, 2022 by Pine Barrens Mafia

[RunTheBall]

New Englands LBs are thumpers. They are slow as hell an can’t move laterally at all. If Dorsey doesn’t devote a chunk of the game plan to exploiting this obvious mismatch we have here (Knox, McKenzie, Cook, Hines, even MIA Shakir) I’m going to go from “he’s learning on the job” to “he doesn’t know what he’s doing”.

 

Even if you keep a guy in to chip Judon, you’ve still gotta put those statues in conflict. NE has a great pass rush. The screen game should make an appearance for once this season. Draws up the middle that Dorsey loves won’t be there, these LBs can stop the run. We need to pin and pull to the outside with Cook. I think he’s the guy who could really tee off this game. I think Josh’s legs on a few designed runs and when NE plays man will be huge.

 

What I hope we don’t see is running Singletary into the gut of the defense for a quarter then giving up. A game-plan that has Josh holding the ball for 3 seconds hoping for someone to get open. Diggs not getting any targets until the second quarter. 

[Scott7975]

5 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

 

They must have forgot to add Tom Brady - Shoulder this week.

2 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

Just locked in the Pats at +4.5 points. Way too many points in what figures to be a close game. Taking the points has been the way to go. Outsiders just don't realize Josh is limited with his elbow. The Pats D is legit. Top 10 in every category. At home in a revenge game. Hopefully, Bills win by 3 or 4 points. 

 

I hope you put 10k on it but it was probably 10 bucks.

[Chuck Schick]

3 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

Just locked in the Pats at +4.5 points. Way too many points in what figures to be a close game. Taking the points has been the way to go. Outsiders just don't realize Josh is limited with his elbow. The Pats D is legit. Top 10 in every category. At home in a revenge game. Hopefully, Bills win by 3 or 4 points. 

Are you actually referring to Vegas odds-makers as “outsiders?” …making YOU the insider??

[newcam2012]

10 minutes ago, Chuck Schick said:

Are you actually referring to Vegas odds-makers as “outsiders?” …making YOU the insider??

The Vegas people are setting the Bills lines very high. Like last week. They had the Lions 10 point favorites. I jumped on 9 points early in the week. Knew that line was way out of whack. This line shouldn't be 4.5 imho. 

25 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

They must have forgot to add Tom Brady - Shoulder this week.

 

I hope you put 10k on it but it was probably 10 bucks.

50 bucks only. I don't get big because it takes the enjoyment out of it for me. Have a couple parlays too. 

[EmotionallyUnstable]

11 hours ago, boyst said:

rosseau used in limited rotation this week is goign to help but i don't want to use him too much.

 

our pressure needs to come from inside - jones, oliver, etc.

 

this week i like moving lawson inside some. he's quick enough to beat their weaker guys inside to get to the qb. this disguised look brings pressure and lets it be known but not from where.

Did they say he’d be limited?

 

11 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Josh is going to have to improvise for much of the game…. Quessenberry and Brown as the Tackles is cringe worthy….. good thing is Allen’s used to it and incredible at finding space to make something happen as his offensive line collapses in front of him. 

Luckily Dorsey wised up and started using TE and RB help on obvious passing downs. I expect that to continue. I’d love to see him actually outsmart a defensive coordinator to mitigate a pass rush with a counter offensive (jet sweep, draw, successful screen, etc).

 

 

[Warcodered]

 

[PatsFanNH]

2 hours ago, RunTheBall said:

New Englands LBs are thumpers. They are slow as hell an can’t move laterally at all. If Dorsey doesn’t devote a chunk of the game plan to exploiting this obvious mismatch we have here (Knox, McKenzie, Cook, Hines, even MIA Shakir) I’m going to go from “he’s learning on the job” to “he doesn’t know what he’s doing”.

 

Even if you keep a guy in to chip Judon, you’ve still gotta put those statues in conflict. NE has a great pass rush. The screen game should make an appearance for once this season. Draws up the middle that Dorsey loves won’t be there, these LBs can stop the run. We need to pin and pull to the outside with Cook. I think he’s the guy who could really tee off this game. I think Josh’s legs on a few designed runs and when NE plays man will be huge.

 

What I hope we don’t see is running Singletary into the gut of the defense for a quarter then giving up. A game-plan that has Josh holding the ball for 3 seconds hoping for someone to get open. Diggs not getting any targets until the second quarter. 

Your TE be covered by Dugger who is pretty good. Your mismatch is our LB on RB they will not be on your TE or any WR.  (I hope)

 

I expect the Pats D be like they did with P Manning. Daring the Bills to run the ball while covering all the receivers. Figuring the Bills like the old Colts won’t have the patience and will throw into double coverage. Will it work? I doubt it we don’t have a HOF CB like Law or Gilmore back there anymore. 

[NewEra]

3 hours ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

There's your receipt. Gonna bet a few other underdogs this weekend, so I'll pass on your invite. But thanks!

Now I’ve seen it all

[YoloinOhio]

3 hours ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

There's your receipt. Gonna bet a few other underdogs this weekend, so I'll pass on your invite. But thanks!

You bet… 5 dollars?

[NewEra]

7 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

You bet… 5 dollars?

Against your team….. this provided so much insight 

[What a Tuel]

We literally have people betting against the Bills on the Bills forums and people have the audacity to complain that we criticize those people for bashing the team too much too often. Incredible.

[SACTOBILLSFAN]

2 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

The Vegas people are setting the Bills lines very high. Like last week. They had the Lions 10 point favorites. I jumped on 9 points early in the week. Knew that line was way out of whack. This line shouldn't be 4.5 imho. 

50 bucks only. I don't get big because it takes the enjoyment out of it for me. Have a couple parlays too. 

so you’re saying you missed the best of the number? Bang up job.  

[newcam2012]

56 minutes ago, SACTOBILLSFAN said:

so you’re saying you missed the best of the number? Bang up job.  

I won the bet with plus 9 points and Detrlot. Obviously, you don't bet games. 

1 hour ago, What a Tuel said:

We literally have people betting against the Bills on the Bills forums and people have the audacity to complain that we criticize those people for bashing the team too much too often. Incredible.

Betting has nothing to do with loyalty. The old saying is never bet with your heart. 

[SACTOBILLSFAN]

3 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

I won the bet with plus 9 points and Detrlot. Obviously, you don't bet games. 

I actually bet a lot, had 62 tickets last week alone between the NFL and CFB, which is a light week for me, and at a lot more than $5, and I do well. Bragging about missing the best of the number is funny to me because closing line value, while not gospel, is an indicator of your ability to read the market. 

 

I make the ML in this game -176/+176 and the Bills -4.10, so I won't be on either side. As far as the total goes, I make it 46.8, but haven't bet it yet, because I think it might get to 43, which is a key number. 

[Jauronimo]

2 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

You bet… 5 dollars?

Thats more like a hedge on potential happiness.

[chongli]

On 11/28/2022 at 9:36 AM, Big Turk said:

Bills going all white this week...

 

 

 

What I want to know is how a third-party twitter knew the Bills uniform a day before the Bills themselves announced it:

 

 

[LeGOATski]

9 hours ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

I've been betting on (and making good money on) moneyline underdogs all year. 

 

8 hours ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

There's your receipt. Gonna bet a few other underdogs this weekend, so I'll pass on your invite. But thanks!

This is one of the best things I've seen all year.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

6 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

You bet… 5 dollars?

I bet about 40 bucks a week spread out over all games.

 

Maybe at some point, my bankroll will allow 15-20 a game. But not yet.

6 hours ago, NewEra said:

Against your team….. this provided so much insight 

Heh, well, they've consistently held me back.

1 hour ago, LeGOATski said:

 

This is one of the best things I've seen all year.

I realize you think it's hilarious, but when you've been trying to work your way out of a financial hole caused by divorce and support, you don't really have a HUGE pile of money to be tossing around.

 

Since this is the first year I've ever really gambled on football, and given that I'm not very well off, I figured I'd start small. The results have been encouraging.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

4 hours ago, Jauronimo said:

Thats more like a hedge on potential happiness.

This too.

[JerseyBills]

Mark my words - Edmunds coming back will be a massive improvement to this D. 

His absence was felt

Teams can't attack the middle of the field like they have been.  You can't teach his size , athleticism and natural coverage ability

 

Prior to the injury PFF had Milano as the 2nd best LB and Edmunds #3. 

 

I'd argue his absence was bigger than Vons will be. Not taking anything away from Von but Edmund's is that good and doesn't come off the field.  

 

We got the QB of the D back and I guarantee it shows going forward

[Shortchaz]

I bet $5 on the bills and didn’t tell my wife 

[Johnnycage46]

21 minutes ago, Shortchaz said:

I bet $5 on the bills and didn’t tell my wife 

 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

26 minutes ago, Shortchaz said:

I bet $5 on the bills and didn’t tell my wife 

Mercifully, don't have a wife. 

 

😄

[YoloinOhio]

52 minutes ago, JerseyBills said:

Mark my words - Edmunds coming back will be a massive improvement to this D. 

His absence was felt

Teams can't attack the middle of the field like they have been.  You can't teach his size , athleticism and natural coverage ability

 

Prior to the injury PFF had Milano as the 2nd best LB and Edmunds #3. 

 

I'd argue his absence was bigger than Vons will be. Not taking anything away from Von but Edmund's is that good and doesn't come off the field.  

 

We got the QB of the D back and I guarantee it shows going forward

I also think that Milano is even better when Edmunds is out there. And with von out I could see us blitzing Edmunds to ensure we generate pressure  (Mac is terrible vs the blitz)

 

Edited November 30, 2022 by YoloinOhio

[PaattMaann]

11 hours ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

Did they say he’d be limited?

 

Luckily Dorsey wised up and started using TE and RB help on obvious passing downs. I expect that to continue. I’d love to see him actually outsmart a defensive coordinator to mitigate a pass rush with a counter offensive (jet sweep, draw, successful screen, etc).

 

 

 

I hope to see more 4/5 wide to be honest. Spread em out and use speed. Josh is great in the pocket, he can step up/around pressure. 

 

Definitely some TE/RB chips to slow down the pass rush some, and some PA, but mostly I want to see a spread offense and Josh getting the ball out. 

[What a Tuel]

7 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

I won the bet with plus 9 points and Detrlot. Obviously, you don't bet games. 

Betting has nothing to do with loyalty. The old saying is never bet with your heart. 

 

There is an undeniable conflict that goes on in your head when you do. Detroit +9 sure at least you aren't actively betting on your team to lose, but whatever you are still rooting for Detroit to keep it close. But bets against the Bills on the money line? That's just straight up betting for your team to lose. Especially when someone puts $5 bet on Patriots so they have bragging rights on the forum that they were right? Yuck.

 

Also I never said bet on the Bills to win just because we want them to. I just stay away from Bills games altogether.

[JerseyBills]

16 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

I also think that Milano is even better when Edmunds is out there. And with von out I could see us blitzing Edmunds to ensure we generate pressure  (Mac is terrible vs the blitz)

 

Completely agree on Milano,  and Edmunds usually gets home in his limited blizes. I hope they blitz Mac all day

[PromoTheRobot]

1 hour ago, Shortchaz said:

I bet $5 on the bills and didn’t tell my wife 

 

I do the same. Limit bets to $5 to avoid becoming a complete degenerate. Frankly it's a good thing considering the slump I'm in. (And the wife knows.)

 

I've gotten away from bets on who wins or loses to individual or team props. 

[Negan]

52 minutes ago, What a Tuel said:

 

There is an undeniable conflict that goes on in your head when you do. Detroit +9 sure at least you aren't actively betting on your team to lose, but whatever you are still rooting for Detroit to keep it close. But bets against the Bills on the money line? That's just straight up betting for your team to lose. Especially when someone puts $5 bet on Patriots so they have bragging rights on the forum that they were right? Yuck.

 

Also I never said bet on the Bills to win just because we want them to. I just stay away from Bills games altogether.

I won't bet Bills to win any game ever again, instead I prefer doing sgp, Allen over 39 yards rushing, Bills to score 2 td's or more etc.  

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

6 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

I do the same. Limit bets to $5 to avoid becoming a complete degenerate. Frankly it's a good thing considering the slump I'm in. (And the wife knows.)

 

I've gotten away from bets on who wins or loses to individual or team props. 

Easy to mock being conservative about betting, but I've been on house money since week three thanks to it.

 

[newcam2012]

1 hour ago, What a Tuel said:

 

There is an undeniable conflict that goes on in your head when you do. Detroit +9 sure at least you aren't actively betting on your team to lose, but whatever you are still rooting for Detroit to keep it close. But bets against the Bills on the money line? That's just straight up betting for your team to lose. Especially when someone puts $5 bet on Patriots so they have bragging rights on the forum that they were right? Yuck.

 

Also I never said bet on the Bills to win just because we want them to. I just stay away from Bills games altogether.

No conflict at all for me. I always root for the Bills to win. I bet such a little amount that the bets are secondary. I'd rather lose my bet and have the Bills win the game. I only bet against the Bills when I think the spread is way off which doesn't happen often. Plus 9 to Detroit was a good example. This week plus 4.5 points to the Pats seems very high.  

Edited November 30, 2022 by newcam2012

[PromoTheRobot]

33 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

Easy to mock being conservative about betting, but I've been on house money since week three thanks to it.

 

 

I was in the black for the last two seasons as well. But this year having some terrible luck.

[MiltonWaddams]

2 hours ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

Mercifully, don't have a wife. 

 

😄

Don’t tell your husband then.

[NewEra]

48 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

Easy to mock being conservative about betting, but I've been on house money since week three thanks to it.

 

Lol, you’d have a lot more house money if you didn’t bet $5…..

 

against your own team to win.  $5….. you bet $5 against your own team…….  FIVE DOLLARS. 
 

$5…….

2 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

I also think that Milano is even better when Edmunds is out there. And with von out I could see us blitzing Edmunds to ensure we generate pressure  (Mac is terrible vs the blitz)

 

I’d rather we blitz Milano.  He’s so much better @ blitzing.  Edmunds has improved over past years, but give me milano bringing the pain all day.  

[newcam2012]

9 hours ago, SACTOBILLSFAN said:

I actually bet a lot, had 62 tickets last week alone between the NFL and CFB, which is a light week for me, and at a lot more than $5, and I do well. Bragging about missing the best of the number is funny to me because closing line value, while not gospel, is an indicator of your ability to read the market. 

 

I make the ML in this game -176/+176 and the Bills -4.10, so I won't be on either side. As far as the total goes, I make it 46.8, but haven't bet it yet, because I think it might get to 43, which is a key number. 

Very nice post. Trying to get the best closing line is a very tricky proposal. Of course, getting the hook" or trying to avoid it is important. I remember one time I had a 10 game parlay live going into the Monday night game. At that time, 10 game parlays were 500 to 1. Now, it's much more. I placed a $10 bet so my ticket was live for 5k. For me, my last game was always the Monday night game so I could hedge my bet. The game was a Cowboys vs Philly game. The line was 3.5 point. I waited and waited for the line to go to 2.5. Obviously, wanted to game to end on 3 to win both bets. The line never moved. I hedged my bet and placed 2k on the other team. My parlay cashed and I won about 3k. That was 25 years plus and I've never won another 10 game parlay. 

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, PaattMaann said:

 

I hope to see more 4/5 wide to be honest. Spread em out and use speed. Josh is great in the pocket, he can step up/around pressure. 

 

Definitely some TE/RB chips to slow down the pass rush some, and some PA, but mostly I want to see a spread offense and Josh getting the ball out. 

No dawkins.  Our OL sucks as it is.  If we spread them out, Josh is going to get killed.  

[newcam2012]

5 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Lol, you’d have a lot more house money if you didn’t bet $5…..

 

against your own team to win.  $5….. you bet $5 against your own team…….  FIVE DOLLARS. 
 

$5…….

I’d rather we blitz Milano.  He’s so much better @ blitzing.  Edmunds has improved over past years, but give me milano bringing the pain all day.  

No doubt Milano is the better Blitzer. QB Jones is one of the worst passers under pressure. Fraizer has to implement blitzes and generate pressure on Jones. Jones will find the open guys if he has a clean pocket. Also, despite his lack of arm strength he will throw the ball long with success. Nelson A and Devante P can make big plays and win jump balls. He will make mistakes under pressure. I don't think this is the game for Fraizer to play his base nickel defense. 

[Jauronimo]

58 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

Easy to mock being conservative about betting, but I've been on house money since week three thanks to it.

 

Nothing to mock about betting responsibly and only wagering what you can afford or are willing to lose.  I know a lot of people of varying means who wager a buck here or $5 there just to make an evening of sports more interesting.  They have the means to make much bigger bets but they aren't willing to lose their hard earned money gambling.

[newcam2012]

1 minute ago, Jauronimo said:

Nothing to mock about betting responsibly and only wagering what you can afford or are willing to lose.  I know a lot of people of varying means who wager a buck here or $5 there just to make an evening of sports more interesting.  They have the means to make much bigger bets but they aren't willing to lose their hard earned money gambling.

I play fanduel daily fantasy basketball and football. Been doing it for years mostly for fun and a hope I can win something big. Very difficult to do. Their payouts are very top heavy. Almost a winner take all but not quite. Wish the money was disbursed a little more evenly. It keeps me occupied and it's fun for me. So I relate to your post.