Preparing for Tre White to never be the same post-injury

[Einstein]

This post may draw some knee-jerk reactions of anger, but please know that it wasn't written to make anyone upset. Unfortunately, the topic is naturally upsetting - We all love Tre White and want him to return to his typical dominant play. To that end, I've done some research on ACL injuries in NFL players. The common refrain from NFL fans is that ACL injuries are no longer the career-ender they once were, and I wanted to see if that was true. Unfortunately, research on players returning post ACL surgery is not optimistic, even in the modern era.

 

One study, Return to Play and Decreased Performance After Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction in National Football League Defensive Players published in the The American Journal of Sports Medicine (2017), shows that:

 

• After the season of surgery, athletes in the ACLR group who returned to play decreased to 57% games started and 2.38 ± 1.24 solo tackles per game, while their matched controls suffered no significant decreases. (link)

And the result of the study indicated rather succinctly:

 

• Players who successfully returned were above-average NFL players before their injury but comparatively average after their return.

 

Another study, this one published in 2022, titled Return to Play and Performance After Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction in National Football League Players shows similar results. Published in the Orthopaedic Journal of Sports Medicine, the results stated:

 

• Of the eligible players, only 28.5% (n = 59/207) remained in the league 3 years postinjury. Within the first 3 years postinjury, players played in fewer games (8.7 vs 13.7; P < .0001), started in fewer games (3.0 vs 8.3; P < .0001), had lower AVs (1.5 vs 4.3; P < .0001), and had decreased snap counts (259.0 vs 619.0; P < .0001) compared with preinjury. (link)

 

The conclusion of the study is no better:

 

• The study findings indicated that NFL players are severely affected by ACL injury, with only 28.5% still active in the league 3 years after the injury. Running backs, defensive linemen, and linebackers performed the worst after injury. v

 

Lastly, a 2019 study that examined ACL tears in Wide Receivers (I used this study because the WR position requires similar impact on the ACL). This study is titled 

Decreased Performance and Return to Play Following Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction in National Football League Wide Receivers. Published in The Arthroscopy Sports Medicine and Rehabilitation issue, the study found that:

 

• When we compared the tear group with the matched control cohort, players with ACL tears ended their careers on an average of 1.9 seasons earlier (2.2 vs 4.1 seasons, P < .001) and also played less than half the number of games (25.5 vs 56.6 games, P = .001), respectively. Those that RTP also saw decreased performance statistics in targets (353.6 vs 125.2 P < .001), receptions (208.0 vs 74.4, P = .001), receiving yards (2691.0 vs 987.9, P = .001), and touchdowns (17.4 vs 6.2, P = .002). (link)
• One potential good tidibt: "no significant differences were present between preinjury and postinjury in-game in all in-game statistics for the wide receiver"

 

Overall Conclusion? Concern.

 

There is a legitimate chance that Tre never returns to the level of play he showed in 2021 and prior, and there is a potential that his career will be shorter than we once thought.

 

 

Edited May 24, 2022 by Einstein

[Big Turk]

And there also is a chance that he does return to form.

 

Every player is different, so the only thing we can do is wait and see.

 

This year I am prepared for him to be average since it usually takes a year to get back to where they were.

 

After that, I am more in a wait and see mode.

[NewEra]

I’m preparing to watch him win a super bowl.  

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

8 minutes ago, Einstein said:

This post may draw some knee-jerk reactions of anger, but please know that it wasn't written to make anyone upset. Unfortunately, the topic is naturally upsetting - We all love Tre White and want him to return to his typical dominant play. To that end, I've done some research on ACL injuries in NFL players. The common refrain from NFL fans is that ACL injuries are no longer the career-ender they once were, and I wanted to see if that was true. Unfortunately, research on players returning post ACL surgery is not optimistic, even in the modern era.

 

One study, Return to Play and Decreased Performance After Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction in National Football League Defensive Players published in the The American Journal of Sports Medicine (2017), shows that:

 

• After the season of surgery, athletes in the ACLR group who returned to play decreased to 57% games started and 2.38 ± 1.24 solo tackles per game, while their matched controls suffered no significant decreases. (link)

And the result of the study indicated rather succinctly:

 

• Players who successfully returned were above-average NFL players before their injury but comparatively average after their return.

 

Another study, this one published in 2022, titled Return to Play and Performance After Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction in National Football League Players shows similar results. Published in the Orthopaedic Journal of Sports Medicine, the results stated:

 

• Of the eligible players, only 28.5% (n = 59/207) remained in the league 3 years postinjury. Within the first 3 years postinjury, players played in fewer games (8.7 vs 13.7; P < .0001), started in fewer games (3.0 vs 8.3; P < .0001), had lower AVs (1.5 vs 4.3; P < .0001), and had decreased snap counts (259.0 vs 619.0; P < .0001) compared with preinjury. (link)

 

The conclusion of the study is no better:

 

• The study findings indicated that NFL players are severely affected by ACL injury, with only 28.5% still active in the league 3 years after the injury. Running backs, defensive linemen, and linebackers performed the worst after injury. v

 

Lastly, a 2019 study that examined ACL tears in Wide Receivers (I used this study because the WR position requires similar impact on the ACL). This study is titled 

Decreased Performance and Return to Play Following Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction in National Football League Wide Receivers. Published in The Arthroscopy Sports Medicine and Rehabilitation issue, the study found that:

 

• When we compared the tear group with the matched control cohort, players with ACL tears ended their careers on an average of 1.9 seasons earlier (2.2 vs 4.1 seasons, P < .001) and also played less than half the number of games (25.5 vs 56.6 games, P = .001), respectively. Those that RTP also saw decreased performance statistics in targets (353.6 vs 125.2 P < .001), receptions (208.0 vs 74.4, P = .001), receiving yards (2691.0 vs 987.9, P = .001), and touchdowns (17.4 vs 6.2, P = .002). (link)

 

Overall Conclusion? Concern.

 

There is a legitimate chance that Tre never returns to the level of play he showed in 2021 and prior, and there is a potential that his career will be shorter than we once thought.

Pretty sobering.

 

my only response would be to hope that these stats reflect more of the “average” NFL player. A lot of the NFL “elite” tore their ACL’s and went onto have productive careers. Von Miller and Darrell Revis both come to mind. 

[Einstein]

4 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I’m preparing to watch him win a super bowl.  

 

I love the energy. Im with you.

[John from Riverside]

Tre is gonna be fine....as long as they dont rush it

[FilthyBeast]

I've also  pounded this drum for a while because I feel a lot of fans have White penciled in as the starter on day one come September and/or don't understand the nature of his injury relevant to the demands of his position. I think realistically he's not going to be ready until midseason best case assuming no setback and given this teams overcautious nature in terms of how they handle injured players I would be surprised to see anything different even if White insists he's ready.

 

This is also why I remain perplexed with Beane/McD's current thought process of not bringing in a viable veteran option. Yes we drafted another talented player with our 1st pick but it's silly to put that kind of pressure on him and expect him to be a true starter out of the gate when so many DB's typically struggle early. White himself was somewhat of anomaly in terms of how solid he was his rookie year.

 

Still time to add to the roster but as we get closer to training camp the concern will go stronger that DB may still be a glaring hole on this team.

[Fr. Jerk]

Hes gonna blow em away.

 

Everyday is Tre day, ya dig?

[Augie]

20 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I’m preparing to watch him win a super bowl.  

 

That’s not NEARLY negative enough! Some people go to such great effort to find the dark side of everything. 

 

This is not Robert James having his career ended by a knee injury. They get better at the surgery and rehab every year. Any old stats (full disclosure: I read very little of the OP because I didn’t see the point) are not relevant today. My mother had her hips replaced two years apart, and the second one was a piece of cake compared to the first. My son was playing high school basketball 5 months after his ACL surgery. Tre has the best of the best available for surgery and rehab. He’s working hard, I’m confident he will be fine. 

 

I expect him to come back cautiously and wisely. I fully expect him to be the same player he used to be given adequate time. I’m not going to create problems in my mind that don’t actually exist. To say only 28.5% are still active in the NFL three years later is pure BS and intentionally misleading, with the average NFL career only being 3-4 years. 

 

 

.

Edited May 24, 2022 by Augie

[Einstein]

12 minutes ago, Augie said:

They get better at the surgery and rehab every year. Any old stats (full disclosure: I read very little of the OP because I didn’t see the point) are not relevant today. 

 

I understand not reading a post that you're not interested in. 

 

I do not understand not reading the post, but then still commenting on it.

 

The studies are from 2022, 2019 and 2017. All recent. Nothing old. All relevant today.

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

I would start the transition to FS if he struggles this year. He was never a super fast CB, his anticipation and film study sets Tre apart. I fear that the loss of speed and agility from the injury will turn Tre into a better than average CB.

[Einstein]

Just now, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

I would start the transition to FS if he struggles this year. He was never a super fast CB, his anticipation and film study sets Tre apart. I fear that the loss of speed and agility from the injury will turn Tre into a better than average CB.

 

As do I.

 

A previous poster mentioned their N=1 sample of their son playing high-school basketball after an ACL injury. Unfortunately, the NFL DB position puts a bit more strain on the ligament than high school athletics.

[Mr. WEO]

6 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

I understand not reading a post that you're not interested in. 

 

I do not understand not reading the post, but then still commenting on it.

 

The studies are from 2022, 2019 and 2017. All recent. Nothing old. All relevant today.

 

 

This was already covered here not long ago...

 

 

[Augie]

1 hour ago, Einstein said:

 

I understand not reading a post that you're not interested in. 

 

I do not understand not reading the post, but then still commenting on it.

 

The studies are from 2022, 2019 and 2017. All recent. Nothing old. All relevant today.

 

I read enough, in my opinion.  How do we know how injuries from 2022 are going to turn out? Useless data. They are much better at the surgery and PT than just 5 years ago in 2017. 

 

It’s a legit concern that he might not be ready early, but it took an Eyore to start a thread implying he might be out of the league or never be “himself”. He will be back, it’s just a matter of when. 

 

.

Edited May 25, 2022 by Augie

[Einstein]

1 minute ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

This was already covered here not long ago...

 

 

 

Apologies for making a duplicate thread.

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

Put him on Diggs throughout practice to get a early read on him. I bet Diggs burns him a lot.

[EasternOHBillsFan]

7 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

I understand not reading a post that you're not interested in. 

 

I do not understand not reading the post, but then still commenting on it.

 

The studies are from 2022, 2019 and 2017. All recent. Nothing old. All relevant today.

 

I understand both... it's a very emotional subject. Not the sort of speculation we want to see even if it is based on studies. We want to be as positive as possible going into the season, so a post like this won't be popular. and you knew this the moment you started it.

[Einstein]

2 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

I read enough, in my opinion.  How to we know how injuries from 2022 are going to turn out? Use less data. They are much better at the surgery and PT than just 5 years ago in 2017. 

 

It’s a legit concern that he might not be ready early, but it took an Eyore to start a thread implying he might be out of the league or never be “himself”. He will be back, it’s just a matter of when. 

 

Your sentiment seems to be that an opinion that is negative in nature can not be rooted in fact or reality and that the positive side of the possibility must be the correct answer. I guess we differ in that respect. I follow whichever way the evidence points me. 

 

2 minutes ago, EasternOHBillsFan said:

 

I understand both... it's a very emotional subject. Not the sort of speculation we want to see even if it is based on studies. We want to be as positive as possible going into the season, so a post like this won't be popular. and you knew this the moment you started it.

 

Agreed. Thats sad.

 

 

Edited May 24, 2022 by Einstein

[Augie]

4 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

As do I.

 

A previous poster mentioned their N=1 sample of their son playing high-school basketball after an ACL injury. Unfortunately, the NFL DB position puts a bit more strain on the ligament than high school athletics.

 

Totally agreed on the bold, it’s not the NFL. But he was playing in FIVE months, and could have gone on to play college football or soccer but decided to focus on his future. He wasn’t the fat kid playing keeper, he was POY. He played against current NFL players post-surgery, and did quite well. 

 

I’m concerned about WHEN he comes back, and how long UNTIL he gets back to at least 95% of his old self, but I have no real concern over the IF. 

[Einstein]

2 minutes ago, Augie said:

but I have no real concern over the IF. 

Neither do I.

 

Tre White WILL be back. The question is how much of his ability will be back.

[WhoTom]

57 minutes ago, Einstein said:

This post may draw some knee-jerk reactions of anger,

 

... no pun intended.

 

 

[Augie]

4 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Your sentiment seems to be that an opinion that is negative in nature can not be rooted in fact or reality and that the positive side of the possibility must be the correct answer. I guess we differ in that respect. I follow whichever way the evidence points me. 

 

 

That’s not the case at all. Period. I just find more realistic concerns to worry about. It is my OPINION that Tre will be back and eventually be his old self.  I’m going with the odds, and I can find more realistic concerns to worry about. You just don’t like that I’m not buying your premise. 

 

I’m worried about our run defense and OLine far more than Tre eventually being very productive. I’m not sold on Edmunds. I’m not all rainbows and unicorns, but I see Tre as a very minor concern that you are trying to oversell because you wanted to start a thread. 

[Einstein]

2 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

That’s not the case at all. Period. I just find more realistic concerns to worry about. It is my OPINION that Tre will be back and eventually be his old self.

I hope you're right. 

 

2 minutes ago, Augie said:

I’m going with the odds

 

According to 3 different studies, the odds seem to be against what we both want.

[Don Otreply]

We’re doomed, as well as concerned, some of us are out right worried, and drinking far to much, 😂

[Augie]

4 minutes ago, Einstein said:

I hope you're right. 

 

 

According to 3 different studies, the odds seem to be against what we both want.

 

The studies also point out that 28.5% of ACL cases are not in the league 3 years later. That’s some garbage information, there. NFL players only get about 3.5 years in the league on average, I believe. Some guys probably get their careers extended by ACL surgery and the year off to recover.  Do we have the stat on that? 

 

I think I’m done here. It’s not a crusade on my part, I’m just not really concerned about the IF as much as the WHEN. I bet he’s eventually back to at least 98% physically, but then continues to get better as he improves as a pro. 

[msw2112]

This is where losing Levi Wallace hurts.  White's return has some questions (1. When and 2. How Effective) and Elam is a rookie and also just 1 player.  Benford seems more like a practice squad type of guy than a guy who's going to see a lot of NFL action as a rookie.  I suspect they'll add a veteran or 2 at some point and may be waiting on training camp cuts.

 

Also, in addition to Dane Jackson, they may feel better about the likes of Cam Lewis, Nick McCloud, Olaijah Griffin, etc. than many on this board do.  Siran Neal is also listed as a CB, but he seems to be more of a utility guy to me.  They may believe they can get equal or better production out of those young guys who know the Bills' system than bringing in a vet from the outside.  That's aside from the cost factor.  A guy who they get for the vet minimum probably isn't very good and a more expensive guy still might not be any better than what they already have.  Plus, the zone schemes that they run can cover up some talent deficiences in the defensive backfield.  I trust the Bills' coachng staff and front office.  They seem to know what they're doing. 

[Einstein]

1 minute ago, Augie said:

I think I’m done here. It’s not a crusade on my part

 

Same.

 

This will be my last post in this thread as well. Especially considering that someone was kind enough to point out that a similar thread exists (albeit with less sources). 

[Alphadawg7]

This is why I was so adamant pre-draft at the need to draft a corner early, and preferably in round 1.  While if there was a guy to believe would come all the back it would be Tre, its also just not a foregone conclusion either.  

 

There is also another layer often over looked in situations like his.  It can take a while for a player coming of an ACL like this to get back to playing their best, often not until the following season.  Its not just a physical challenge, but also a mental challenge to fully trust the body again and play without hesitation. 

 

So I feel a LOT better now that we have Elam here given we still don't when he will be able to return to the game or what kind of player he will be when he comes back.  Don't get me wrong, I am still optimistic Tre can resume his career and be an impact player moving forward, but its definitely warranted to have concern until we see him on the field again.  

 

The good news is if anyone can get back to close to their previous form, or even all the way back, its Tre, especially with his style of play.  Plus he is young enough, has the right kind of drive and commitment to be the best version he can be.  

[Sharky7337]

Thanks for putting this together and I think that's really cool information.

 

Now if you need somewhere to hide from the mob PM me.

[Punching Bag]

1 hour ago, Einstein said:

Overall Conclusion? Concern.

 

There is a legitimate chance that Tre never returns to the level of play he showed in 2021 and prior, and there is a potential that his career will be shorter than we once thought.

 

What was not included was evaluation on how hard each of the injured players worked out post injury, where they were in their careers and facilities available.   Tre has already been reported to be working out hard, he is early in career and relatively young and Bills have some of the best facilities in the country.

[Orlando Tim]

1 hour ago, Einstein said:

This post may draw some knee-jerk reactions of anger, but please know that it wasn't written to make anyone upset. Unfortunately, the topic is naturally upsetting - We all love Tre White and want him to return to his typical dominant play. To that end, I've done some research on ACL injuries in NFL players. The common refrain from NFL fans is that ACL injuries are no longer the career-ender they once were, and I wanted to see if that was true. Unfortunately, research on players returning post ACL surgery is not optimistic, even in the modern era.

 

One study, Return to Play and Decreased Performance After Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction in National Football League Defensive Players published in the The American Journal of Sports Medicine (2017), shows that:

 

• After the season of surgery, athletes in the ACLR group who returned to play decreased to 57% games started and 2.38 ± 1.24 solo tackles per game, while their matched controls suffered no significant decreases. (link)

And the result of the study indicated rather succinctly:

 

• Players who successfully returned were above-average NFL players before their injury but comparatively average after their return.

 

Another study, this one published in 2022, titled Return to Play and Performance After Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction in National Football League Players shows similar results. Published in the Orthopaedic Journal of Sports Medicine, the results stated:

 

• Of the eligible players, only 28.5% (n = 59/207) remained in the league 3 years postinjury. Within the first 3 years postinjury, players played in fewer games (8.7 vs 13.7; P < .0001), started in fewer games (3.0 vs 8.3; P < .0001), had lower AVs (1.5 vs 4.3; P < .0001), and had decreased snap counts (259.0 vs 619.0; P < .0001) compared with preinjury. (link)

 

The conclusion of the study is no better:

 

• The study findings indicated that NFL players are severely affected by ACL injury, with only 28.5% still active in the league 3 years after the injury. Running backs, defensive linemen, and linebackers performed the worst after injury. v

 

Lastly, a 2019 study that examined ACL tears in Wide Receivers (I used this study because the WR position requires similar impact on the ACL). This study is titled 

Decreased Performance and Return to Play Following Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction in National Football League Wide Receivers. Published in The Arthroscopy Sports Medicine and Rehabilitation issue, the study found that:

 

• When we compared the tear group with the matched control cohort, players with ACL tears ended their careers on an average of 1.9 seasons earlier (2.2 vs 4.1 seasons, P < .001) and also played less than half the number of games (25.5 vs 56.6 games, P = .001), respectively. Those that RTP also saw decreased performance statistics in targets (353.6 vs 125.2 P < .001), receptions (208.0 vs 74.4, P = .001), receiving yards (2691.0 vs 987.9, P = .001), and touchdowns (17.4 vs 6.2, P = .002). (link)
• One potential good tidibt: "no significant differences were present between preinjury and postinjury in-game in all in-game statistics for the wide receiver"

 

Overall Conclusion? Concern.

 

There is a legitimate chance that Tre never returns to the level of play he showed in 2021 and prior, and there is a potential that his career will be shorter than we once thought.

 

 

I think was referenced a few months ago but the biggest issue is that a 38 year old with a torn ACL is much different than a 26 year old and we also don't know if the player was a stud or just hanging on. These are large variables, meaning while the study is true it is not as good a predictor as it might seem on surface.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

I'm not disputing the facts of these studies. I would just add that the overall career length for all NFL players is less than 3 years. So you are taking a player that tears his ACL, then not even adjusting for how long they have already been in the league and then saying only 28% are still playing after 3 years.  White is only 27. If he tore his ACL at age 31 it might be a whole different story. In fact he might not be in the league at age 34 even without an ACL tear.  

And not to be too harsh. But I kind of don't care about three years from now.  I want to win now. So just be smart and not bring him back too early.  Him playing in Dec/Jan/Feb is far more important than Sept.

 

Agree with above poster as well, he never had elite speed.  As long as he has adequate speed he should be fine.  Long term he could be your replacement for Hyde in 2024.  

[Augie]

15 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

 

What was not included was evaluation on how hard each of the injured players worked out post injury, where they were in their careers and facilities available.   Tre has already been reported to be working out hard, he is early in career and relatively young and Bills have some of the best facilities in the country.

 

If you are in the top 10% of league players, it’s for a few reasons. God blessed you with incredible physical traits and talent, but you you also had to work really hard at it. You also need to be lucky enough to land in a place where they recognize what you are capable of and coach you up to make you your best. 

 

A guy in the bottom 30% of league players has a lot less invested, especially if a vet, and that will sway the numbers.  I’m confident Tre will be our old Tre in time, chasing and reading opposing teams play sheets across the field in the wind!   😂

[MJS]

Tre isn't an average player, though. I would rather see the data for really good players. It is muddled from all the players who are average or crappy, who would have shorter careers anyway.

 

We have a ton of examples of really good players coming back from serious injuries, including ACL tears, and playing at a high level. There's no reason Tre White can't be one of those.

[JakeFrommStateFarm]

I'm incredibly worried that Mahommes is going to torch our secondary again

[MJS]

15 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

I'm not disputing the facts of these studies. I would just add that the overall career length for all NFL players is less than 3 years. So you are taking a player that tears his ACL, then not even adjusting for how long they have already been in the league and then saying only 28% are still playing after 3 years.  White is only 27. If he tore his ACL at age 31 it might be a whole different story. In fact he might not be in the league at age 34 even without an ACL tear.  

And not to be too harsh. But I kind of don't care about three years from now.  I want to win now. So just be smart and not bring him back too early.  Him playing in Dec/Jan/Feb is far more important than Sept.

 

Agree with above poster as well, he never had elite speed.  As long as he has adequate speed he should be fine.  Long term he could be your replacement for Hyde in 2024.  

Exactly. Was it determined that their careers were shortened because of their injury, or just because that was the natural progression of their NFL career anyway?

Edited May 25, 2022 by MJS

[ganesh]

1 hour ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

I would start the transition to FS if he struggles this year. He was never a super fast CB, his anticipation and film study sets Tre apart. I fear that the loss of speed and agility from the injury will turn Tre into a better than average CB.

May be in time to become a great saftey after Hyde departs.

[hondo in seattle]

Einstein, thanks for posting.

 

I've been worried about Tre since the injury happened.  I never accepted that it was a given that he'd return to form, though I was unaware of these studies.  

 

Fingers crossed, Tre will be a statistical outlier and return better than ever.  

[Logic]

It’s possible, definitely.

 

Luckily, they just drafted the heir apparent CB1, have a few promising youngsters in the pipeline, and have a head coach and DC who are highly adept at coaching up DBs.

 

Tre White is my favorite Bill, and I hope to see him play at a high level in Buffalo for many more years. If he doesn’t, though, I think the defense will be just fine.

[MJS]

30 minutes ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

I think was referenced a few months ago but the biggest issue is that a 38 year old with a torn ACL is much different than a 26 year old and we also don't know if the player was a stud or just hanging on. These are large variables, meaning while the study is true it is not as good a predictor as it might seem on surface.

Exactly. These are flawed studies.