Breece Hall Please!!

[mrags]

4 hours ago, Magox said:

Very interesting perspective from Albright, essentially making the case that choosing a first round RB is not as bad of a move as once thought of.  Saying that you can pick up the fifth year option, franchise him after and you can have 6 good years which is their typical shelf life with a relatively low cost.

 

It’s all part of the new analytics way of thinking about it.

 

 

Been saying this for weeks and somehow nobody wants to acknowledge it. 

[RocCityRoller]

58 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

I would prefer Zion Johnson myself at 25 but I'm not going to complain if they take Hall.   It may be a moot point anyway since most of the recent mock drafts have both Zion and the other outstanding center, Tyler Linderbaum, off the board before 25.

 

Count me in on the OL train too. I think it is way past time to put some long term fixes there. McBeane was talking about protecting their franchise and having him take less hits. OL and RB are investments that do that.

 

I was big on Linderbaum, but his smaller size concerns me. It is C or bust with him because of it, and he needs to be in the right scheme.

Zion Johnson would be cool.  Getting the #1 or #2 OG at 25 and plugging in a potential 10yr starter/ Pro Bowler at 25 seems like a good decision to me in a draft like this.

 

How do you feel about OG Kenyon Green, or OT Trevor Penning? I see them available a lot in Mocks and Sims.

 

RB in the first wouldn't surprise me though. Hall or Walker III should be productive RB #1 in the league for a while.

[Milanos Milano]

Usually if a RB has 2/3 of the attributes. RAS above 8. 2 years of great college production 1k+ , and a 4.45 40 time or better, they will have a decent NFL career. Usually RBs that don’t have it don’t work out very well. Alvin Kamara is my biggest outlier. 

[mrags]

4 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

It's really not part of the new analytics. 

 

That's just bad math.

 

If the RB plays well enough in his first 3 seasons to be worth of the fully guaranteed, pricey 5th year option(for a RB).........or heaven forbid, the franchise tag..........then they will likely be withholding services after year 3 to FORCE a new contract.

 

See Zeke Elliott or Christian McCaffrey.........two tears of regret into the pillow of remorse. 

 

So ideally..........I guess you need that 1st round RB to play just well enough in his first 3 seasons to not have any leverage to hold out.

 

You know.........like Devin Singletary.

 

4.5-5 yards per carry but only about 800 or so yards rushing........just south of the 1,000 magic number.

 

 

However based on your argument, If literally any single player at any position in the entire NFL plays really well in the first 2 seasons, they will do the same exact thing that claim a RB would do. And the fact is still that RBs make significantly less than just about any position in the league that isn’t a kicker or punter. 
 

not to mention, if your RB is truly doing that well that he holds out for a bigger contract, then he’s probably on his way to and extremely great career. God forbid we sign a player that playing really great and making differences on the field. Or maybe when he becomes so well and a problem, you just trade him to another team and get draft picks for him. The possibilities are endless. 

[Aussie Joe]

Joe Marino is not a fan...

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

10 minutes ago, muppy said:

so I guess drafting Thurman Thomas in 1988 having fallen to the 2nd round was a regrettable move also...NOT. Remember that long embarrassing wait he endured because he by all accounts  was expected to have been drafted earlier in the draft  First round.......surprising drop out of the first due to knee concerns,,,,,,. It was one example that came to mind to refute your point.  #34 wasn't technically a first round choice but IMO his selection was proven Very valuable. As far as 30 years........... well my example is just outside of that he having been drafted in 1988. But my basic point remains the same

 

You say stuff like "obviously stupid" you are stating your opinion as a fact along with it calling everyone that doesnt agree with you stupid. Again, Disagree.

 

m

 

 

 

 

The 80's were more than 30 years ago and pre-free agency altogether..........which was a significant turning point for the running game because teams could no longer keep offensive lines and RB's together in perpetuity.

 

Your specific RB was much more important in the 1980's.........and still Thurman Thomas becoming the MVP as a second round pick was part of the gradual realization that you really didn't have to use first round picks on RB's even THEN.

 

That gradually evolved throughout the 90's..........culminating with the Broncos turning Terrell Davis into a 6th round HOF'er and subsequently marching out a parade of JAGs and having them rush for 1,000+ yards every year in the Shanahan outside zone system (that some people think is new).

 

Right around the turn of the century was the end of the association between great backs and great teams.

 

I think either Davis or Marshall Faulk are the last RB's to lead the league in rushing and play on the SB winner.    

 

That used to be pretty common.

 

So it became a two-fold issue.........you could find good enough ones anywhere in the draft...........and having the best ones really didn't help you  win championships any longer.

 

When Goodell really opened up the passing game with rules changes in 2010..........RB's became even less important.

 

[Milanos Milano]

1 minute ago, Aussie Joe said:

Joe Marino is not a fan...

 

 

He also wasn’t a fan of Josh Allen. I let the RAS, 2 years of production, and a 4.45 or lower 40 time do the talking. Statistically Breece Hall should have at least 3 season of 1,000 yards or more in the NFL if he remains healthy. It’s like a 80%+ guarantee. Not many other metrics out there have better success odds that predict good outcomes. 

[Logic]

Daniel Jeremiah has just released his final mock draft, which has the Bills taking...

 

Breece Hall

 

[Milanos Milano]

1 minute ago, Logic said:

Daniel Jeremiah has just released his final mock draft, which has the Bills taking...

 

Breece Hall

 

This coupled with the Vegas betting odds and someone must know something. Vegas rarely misses. 

[BADOLBILZ]

13 minutes ago, mrags said:

This reason alone makes me want to draft Hall in the first round. Maybe we can drive Schoop insane to the point that he jumps off a bridge. 

 

 

Schopp is saying he would love it because it makes their shows so easy to do and more popular to listen to when people are angry and disillusioned.

 

Controversy = ratings and the back and forth makes him "feel alive".

 

Drafting Breece Hall is job security for Schopp.  

 

It's true..........he and Boston sports fan Lap Dog will probably get extensions and raises.

 

Good drafting has been bad for business in drive time. 

[mrags]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

If the Bills draft Breece Hall, will his official draft pick thread end up shorter than this one?

It will be ongoing for the rest of his career. Might make a new record for longest ongoing thread. Every single play he’s ever been on the field for will be critiqued. 

[BADOLBILZ]

13 minutes ago, mrags said:

However based on your argument, If literally any single player at any position in the entire NFL plays really well in the first 2 seasons, they will do the same exact thing that claim a RB would do. And the fact is still that RBs make significantly less than just about any position in the league that isn’t a kicker or punter. 
 

not to mention, if your RB is truly doing that well that he holds out for a bigger contract, then he’s probably on his way to and extremely great career. God forbid we sign a player that playing really great and making differences on the field. Or maybe when he becomes so well and a problem, you just trade him to another team and get draft picks for him. The possibilities are endless. 

 

 

RB's make whatever their draft slot pays........#25 pays around $15M over 4 years........hardly chump change........and all players become eligible for extension after year 3.

 

The problem of course is that second contract.

 

RB's know the deal..........teams don't want to pay them if they don't have to because RB's have short shelf lives..........so they are never worth more than after a good 3rd year.......whether they are a first round pick or otherwise.

 

But ESPECIALLY if a first rounder........because NOW the team has to FULLY guarantee that 5th year option right after the 3rd year.   

 

Once they pull that trigger the team is on the hook for $10M+ more in guarantees in year 5..........so there isn't much for the RB to gain and potentially a lot to lose for the RB to play on that approx $4M-$5M 4th year.

 

That's why the Bills are actually in a great position with Devin Singletary now..........if they had given him 250 carries and he still ran for his stellar career average 4.7 ypc he would have put up nearly 1200 rush yards and might be threatening for a holdout now.

 

But he ain't got the money in the bank OR the bulk stats to pass on his modest $2M salary this year..........he needs to have his BEST season right now and hit free agency.

 

3 guys in a rotation rushing for league average 4.2 would be better than paying Najee Harris $4M per year to carry the ball 300 times for his woeful 3.9 yards per rush and catch 70 balls for a pathetic 6 yards per catch.  

 

Players at premium positions can hold out too but they have longer career outlooks and much greater chances of getting long term deals for many times the AAV of a top RB.   

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Meh........you are getting carried away with yourself just for the sake of it there.

 

Addressing the offense with a first round pick first assumes that it's a position you should use a first round pick on.

 

Technically a blocking TE, a fullback or a slot-receiver-only are also offensive players but throwing a first round pick at them doesn't really make sense.

 

There are about 4 premium positions on offense.......QB/WRX/WRY/LT.........and a lineman who starts at RT or guard but is expected to graduate to LT also qualifies as a 5th premium option and certain great TE's.....like Kyle Pitts last season........qualify as great receivers in the same way that certain great DT's count as pass rushers.

Obviously, I thought that went without saying

I’m talking about a playmaker or OL on offense.  I’ve stated it dozens of times over the last few months.  I figured people would realize I wasn’t talking about a blocking TE or a fullback…… but if you think that should be stated……. 🤷🏻‍♂️ 
 

You even said that something along the lines of:  we can win the SB without using the 25th pick.  We’re so stacked that we can afford to take a luxury.  If they think Breece Hall has a chance to be the best RB in the league, we’re in a situation where we can take that gamble.  It’s probably not the smartest long term choice, but it will be fun for the next 4-5 years.  The best team in the league can sometimes afford that luxury.  
 

i don’t really get what I got carried away with.  I’m just connecting the dots from from Scott has said all offseason.  

1 hour ago, mrags said:

IF… a big IF, Williams makes it to 13-15. Beane should be on the phone with every team that’s on the clock until we make the trade, or he gets drafted. 

i can’t see making it past Minnesota.  Imagine Williams and Jefferson?  Daaaam

[LeGOATski]

1 hour ago, IronMaidenBills said:

This coupled with the Vegas betting odds and someone must know something. Vegas rarely misses. 

Vegas rarely misses on what?

[Milanos Milano]

Just now, LeGOATski said:

Vegas rarely misses on what?

Big adjusted swings that favor betting odds. Going from +600 to +150 in just a day is a large swing. It tells me someone in the know knows. 

[LeGOATski]

1 minute ago, IronMaidenBills said:

Big adjusted swings that favor betting odds. Going from +600 to +150 in just a day is a large swing. It tells me someone in the know knows. 

So Vegas is rarely wrong on draft picks? How has this not been a huge topic of discussion every year? All we need to do is look at the Vegas odds.

[Milanos Milano]

7 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

So Vegas is rarely wrong on draft picks? How has this not been a huge topic of discussion every year? All we need to do is look at the Vegas odds.

Did I say this? I said Vegas rarely misses on huge adjusted odds in a short time frame. The odds of taking a RB went from +600 to +150 in a days time. Usually that means someone in the know or multiple people in the know has placed a good amount of money on it happening. That’s a large swing and it’s usually not wrong. So might as well prepare yourself for a RB. 

[LeGOATski]

2 hours ago, IronMaidenBills said:

Did I say this? I said Vegas rarely misses on huge adjusted odds in a short time frame. The odds of taking a RB went from +600 to +150 in a days time. Usually that means someone in the know or multiple people in the know has placed a good amount of money on it happening. That’s a large swing and it’s usually not wrong. So might as well prepare yourself for a RB. 

You're saying there's a deep history of Vegas odds predicting the draft picks correctly. All we have to do is look at the swings in the odds right before the draft. It's so easy, I'm just surprised it hasn't been a yearly topic. From now on, let's do a Vegas odds thread the day before the draft. It's apparently the best indicator.

[No_Matter_What]

Ok I just checked final mocks on NFL.com.

 

Daniel Jeremiah, Bucky Brooks, Charles Davis, Maurice Jones-Drew and Peter Schrager are all mocking Breece Hall to the Bills.

 

That leads me to a conclusion that in no way, shape or form are Bills drafting Hall at 25. That is just not the way Beane operates. There is absolutely no chance that all these guys can guess correctly what he will do.

 

I love how good he is in creating smoke.

 

I am ready to eat crow I am wrong but I won't be.

Edited April 28, 2022 by No_Matter_What

[BruceVilanch]

3 hours ago, IronMaidenBills said:

Did I say this? I said Vegas rarely misses on huge adjusted odds in a short time frame. The odds of taking a RB went from +600 to +150 in a days time. Usually that means someone in the know or multiple people in the know has placed a good amount of money on it happening. That’s a large swing and it’s usually not wrong. So might as well prepare yourself for a RB. 

It also could be a lot of dumb public money being dumped the night before the draft. Large swings in odds happen all the time the night before an event. The fury V Wilder 2 fight changed big the day of the fight in the wrong direction and that was from dumb money on wilder.

[YoloinOhio]

I’m not strongly for or against this. But I will say that the fan and media hand wringing about drafting Breece hall has a very similar vibe to the Josh Allen draft. There is much polarization and consternation and “mental preparation that this might actually happen” and Beane’s career hangs in the balance on this, etc

 

Like, if drafting a RB in the 1st round works out for the Bills here, they will have “outsmarted basically all regular humans and the entirety of math itself”

 

In reality, no 2022 draft pick is going to determine the Bills fate this year. SB contenders don’t depend on rookies to move the needle. It is one place to add talent but there will be vet adds after this and the team is mostly set as it is. Just enjoy the draft, it’s not just for this year it is for the next 4 and beyond. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 28, 2022 by YoloinOhio

[Solomon Grundy]

5 hours ago, mrags said:

It will be ongoing for the rest of his career. Might make a new record for longest ongoing thread. Every single play he’s ever been on the field for will be critiqued. 

Like Yolo said, as polarizing as the Josh Allen choice and that worked out well. 

[Dibs]

I would rather draft Breece Hall in the 1st than Josh Rosen. Just saying. 😶

[muppy]

1 hour ago, No_Matter_What said:

Ok I just checked final mocks on NFL.com.

 

Daniel Jeremiah, Bucky Brooks, Charles Davis, Maurice Jones-Drew and Peter Schrager are all mocking Breece Hall to the Bills.

 

That leads me to a conclusion that in no way, shape or form are Bills drafting Hall at 25. That is just not the way Beane operates. There is absolutely no chance that all these guys can guess correctly what he will do.

 

I love how good he is in creating smoke.

 

I am ready to eat crow I am wrong but I won't be.

You know, I had the same feeling. Across the board consensus SAME GUY??? I call that tempting fate possibly doomed to failure.........just something about it. And your point on Brandon Beane is super well taken too.

 

Im buckled in for a trade UP and all the Breece Hall supporters I HOPE being thrilled with THE Pick whatever it ends up being. No crow eating whatsoever. It just may happen. 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Pretty good company.

 

 

[SoTier]

7 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Meh........you are getting carried away with yourself just for the sake of it there.

 

Addressing the offense with a first round pick first assumes that it's a position you should use a first round pick on.

 

Technically a blocking TE, a fullback or a slot-receiver-only are also offensive players but throwing a first round pick at them doesn't really make sense.

 

There are about 4 premium positions on offense.......QB/WRX/WRY/LT.........and a lineman who starts at RT or guard but is expected to graduate to LT also qualifies as a 5th premium option and certain great TE's.....like Kyle Pitts last season........qualify as great receivers in the same way that certain great DT's count as pass rushers.

 

Individuals matter.  Nobody is arguing for the Bills to draft "a RB" in the first the way people argue for a "CB" or "WR".   They are specifically arguing for Breece Hall because they believe he's a special player with the potential to be special.   I would love it if the Bills drafted Zion Johnson at #25 but that's because he's potentially a great player on the IOL not just because the Bills have a need to improve their IOL.  A potential Pro Bowler/All Pro type player at a less-valued position is worth a first round pick for a team drafting late in the  first round when the prospects available at more highly valued positions aren't as outstanding individuals.

 

 

[SoMAn]

Not sure if it's been brought up here, but other than being a talented back who can run and catch, is Hall a culture fit for the Buffalo Bills?

I get the impression from the way the Bills have operated under Beane that building team chemistry and having the right personalities is just as important as raw talent.

 

I don't know anything about Hall.  Have never seen/heard an interview or anything to give me a sense of who he is as a person.

 

When I think historically notorious offenses I think of 'triplets'.  

Smith, Aikman, Irvin. 

Thomas, Kelly, Reed. 

Rice, Montana, Craig.

Bradshaw, Harris, Swan

etc.

 

I see Singletary as more of what Kenny Davis was to Thurman.  A serviceable and dependable backup who can spell the feature guy.

 

Could Hall become the third triplet to round out the offense? 

Edited April 28, 2022 by SoMAn

[mrags]

6 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

RB's make whatever their draft slot pays........#25 pays around $15M over 4 years........hardly chump change........and all players become eligible for extension after year 3.

 

The problem of course is that second contract.

 

RB's know the deal..........teams don't want to pay them if they don't have to because RB's have short shelf lives..........so they are never worth more than after a good 3rd year.......whether they are a first round pick or otherwise.

 

But ESPECIALLY if a first rounder........because NOW the team has to FULLY guarantee that 5th year option right after the 3rd year.   

 

Once they pull that trigger the team is on the hook for $10M+ more in guarantees in year 5..........so there isn't much for the RB to gain and potentially a lot to lose for the RB to play on that approx $4M-$5M 4th year.

 

That's why the Bills are actually in a great position with Devin Singletary now..........if they had given him 250 carries and he still ran for his stellar career average 4.7 ypc he would have put up nearly 1200 rush yards and might be threatening for a holdout now.

 

But he ain't got the money in the bank OR the bulk stats to pass on his modest $2M salary this year..........he needs to have his BEST season right now and hit free agency.

 

3 guys in a rotation rushing for league average 4.2 would be better than paying Najee Harris $4M per year to carry the ball 300 times for his woeful 3.9 yards per rush and catch 70 balls for a pathetic 6 yards per catch.  

 

Players at premium positions can hold out too but they have longer career outlooks and much greater chances of getting long term deals for many times the AAV of a top RB.   

Well. Like I said, I disagree with just about all of that. What your saying is you’d rather draft a guy that is below average just so you don’t have to pay him big money in a few years. Makes lots of sense. Hey, that’s your Opinion, I’m fine if you want that but I don’t. 
 

shelf lives of RBs are short in the NFL. That’s why you want a good, young RB having his prime years with your team. If he holds out or wants a trade because he’s so good, so be it. Apparently he was so good that happened. Imagine Leveon Bell (talent alone) having his prime years with this team at the same time Allen and Diggs are having their prime years. Sounds terrible I know. 
 

the reason why you want 1 good RB and not 3 is because then you never have to substitute certain backs in for certain situations. The offense doesn’t become so predictable. I’m decent years because of our “rotation” When certain players are in you can tell it’s going to be a run or a pass. Ya I f one good back able to do everything well eliminates that anticipation from the defense. 
 

hey, you do you. But at the end of the day, other than CB (the consensus pick around here) Hall or an early RB picked would would be an immediate upgrade over what we currently have than any other position on the roster. If we were to pick him at 25 he would be the best player at his position available vs the 4th, 5th or 6th best left at WR, OL, CB, S, LB. I’m not going to take Hall is Olave, Garrett, Williams, Hamilton, Gardner, Stingley are all gone, but that’s likely not going to happen. He’s a playmaker and it’s something we are missing on this team. A player that can take it the distance in any given play. Rushing or receiving. If you don’t feel that way it’s fine. 
 

Really, the only person that matters in deciding this is Beane and he’s the one making the decision. Like I’ve said before in one of these countless threads, everyone seems to be impressed with Beane and give him benefit of doubt because of this. So what’s going to happen when he picks a player that many don’t want. Most likely everyone’s head will explode….. until September and Hall is having 100 yards games, scoring TDs and all the sudden they will say they were happy with it all along. Which we all know will be a lie. 
 

enjoy draft day no matter who they pick. You don’t have any control over it anyway. 
 

Go Bills 

7 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Schopp is saying he would love it because it makes their shows so easy to do and more popular to listen to when people are angry and disillusioned.

 

Controversy = ratings and the back and forth makes him "feel alive".

 

Drafting Breece Hall is job security for Schopp.  

 

It's true..........he and Boston sports fan Lap Dog will probably get extensions and raises.

 

Good drafting has been bad for business in drive time. 

Schoop is an idiot. He doesn’t really want or believe that he says things in radio because he thinks he knows what he’s talking about. He doesn’t. He’s an asshat and should end his career. Nobody wants to listen to him talking about non sport related things all the time anyway. Like 3 hours in a show of what vegetables are best or some crap. 

[mrags]

23 minutes ago, SoMAn said:

Not sure if it's been brought up here, but other than being a talented back who can run and catch, is Hall a culture fit for the Buffalo Bills?

I get the impression from the way the Bills have operated under Beane that building team chemistry and having the right personalities is just as important as raw talent.

 

I don't know anything about Hall.  Have never seen/heard an interview or anything to give me a sense of who he is as a person.

 

When I think historically notorious offenses I think of 'triplets'.  

Smith, Aikman, Irvin. 

Thomas, Kelly, Reed. 

Rice, Montana, Craig.

Bradshaw, Harris, Swan

etc.

 

I see Singletary as more of what Kenny Davis was to Thurman.  A serviceable and dependable backup who can spell the feature guy.

 

Could Hall become the third triplet to round out the offense? 

As far as personality, I have no idea if he’s a fit. And I’ll admit that if he’s an @&$hole, I wouldn’t want him. But if Beane and Co believe he’s a fit then who am I to judge. 
 

 But to your point about him being a triplet, yes. 100% he has the ability to step in and be one of the better backs in the league immediately. Especially in this offense, with Allen as his QB and Diggs and the other WRs giving him opportunities to shine. 

[Milanos Milano]

2 hours ago, BruceVilanch said:

It also could be a lot of dumb public money being dumped the night before the draft. Large swings in odds happen all the time the night before an event. The fury V Wilder 2 fight changed big the day of the fight in the wrong direction and that was from dumb money on wilder.

While yes, public dumb money can be wrong, but I don’t think that is what is going on here. The nature of the betting topic is different to boot. A fight odd is way different than a draft positional choice odd. One is based on a bunch of multiple variables that are generally out of the realm of “in the know” categories. The draft positional choice odds are in the realm of “in the know” categories. People with specific tells or insight can and do swing odds majorly based on information. You can’t easily do that for certain betting categories. 

[BruceVilanch]

10 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:

While yes, public dumb money can be wrong, but I don’t think that is what is going on here. The nature of the betting topic is different to boot. A fight odd is way different than a draft positional choice odd. One is based on a bunch of multiple variables that are generally out of the realm of “in the know” categories. The draft positional choice odds are in the realm of “in the know” categories. People with specific tells or insight can and do swing odds majorly based on information. You can’t easily do that for certain betting categories. 

Well put, you're probably right.

[BuffaloRebound]

16 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:

While yes, public dumb money can be wrong, but I don’t think that is what is going on here. The nature of the betting topic is different to boot. A fight odd is way different than a draft positional choice odd. One is based on a bunch of multiple variables that are generally out of the realm of “in the know” categories. The draft positional choice odds are in the realm of “in the know” categories. People with specific tells or insight can and do swing odds majorly based on information. You can’t easily do that for certain betting categories. 

I think there’s little money bet on the draft that big moves can happen with a relatively small bet.  No ‘sharps’ are betting on who’s selected at pick 25.  Draft betting is for entertainment.  

[Solomon Grundy]

38 minutes ago, mrags said:

Schoop is an idiot. He doesn’t really want or believe that he says things in radio because he thinks he knows what he’s talking about. He doesn’t. He’s an asshat and should end his career. Nobody wants to listen to him talking about non sport related things all the time anyway. Like 3 hours in a show of what vegetables are best or some crap.

All of the WGR guys are losing it over the thought of a RB/Breece Hall at 25. Lol

[mrags]

Just now, Solomon Grundy said:

All of the WGR guys are losing it over the thought of a RB/Breece Hall at 25. Lol

Yes they are. Can’t stand listening to them loose their minds but I love the thought of them being unhappy. Lol. 

[Milanos Milano]

12 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

I think there’s little money bet on the draft that big moves can happen with a relatively small bet.  No ‘sharps’ are betting on who’s selected at pick 25.  Draft betting is for entertainment.  

In the past, I’d be inclined to agree. But with the opening up of online betting, a lot of people are placing bets on the most mundane things. To go from +600 to +150 tells me there has either been a lot of public dumb money (NFL network media driven) or somebody in the know feels confident to place big money enough to swing like crazy. I don’t think it’s far fetched to believe some smart money came in after seeing the payout given the nature of the topic. It wouldn’t take much to even sniff a possible big board or to know people in high places. 

23 minutes ago, BruceVilanch said:

Well put, you're probably right.

Honestly I don’t know, it’s just an educated guess. I see these kind of things on other betting topics other than sports like predictit. It’s not hard to know enough or know people who do know to feel confident in hedging your odds on topics structured like this. 

Edited April 28, 2022 by IronMaidenBills

[BuffaloRebound]

3 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:

I’m the past, I’d be inclined to agree. But with the opening up of online betting, a lot of people are placing bets on the most mundane things. To go from +600 to +150 tells me there has either been a lot of public dumb money (NFL network media driven) or somebody in the know feels confident to place big money enough to swing like crazy. I don’t think it’s far fetched to believe some smart money came in after seeing the payout given the nature of the topic. It wouldn’t take much to even sniff a possible big board or to know people in high places. 

Highly doubt anybody has access to a team’s draft board other than maybe the Cowboys.  Other than ‘expert’ mock drafts, the only other info that could realistically move betting markets would be coming from agents.  So maybe there’s a chance Bills take Hall but that also doesn’t necessarily mean it’s with pick 25.  

[KDIGGZ]

How did it work out for KC when in a similar situation they took CEH? Did it make them a better team? Nope. And Hall is no Helaire.

 

If they take a RB or trade out of the 1st I'm going to be super bummed. If anything I'd like to see them trade up and get a starter. How many roster spots do you think we have for any rookies past the 4th round? Trade all of those picks and get to like 15-20 and get a CB2!

[SWATeam]

1 minute ago, ScottLaw said:

That’s because your thinking is only short term…. The Bills have several key offensive and defensive pieces at big positions coming off the books in the near future… that’s why these first rounders can be crucial to restocking your team with cheap talent. The Bills can find a Breece Hall for cheap in FA rather easily… hell I’d guess his production will mimic Singletary’s if the Bills waste a first rounder on him. 

Wait, I thought you wanted offensive weapons???

[mrags]

1 minute ago, ScottLaw said:

That’s because your thinking is only short term…. The Bills have several key offensive and defensive pieces at big positions coming off the books in the near future… that’s why these first rounders can be crucial to restocking your team with cheap talent. The Bills can find a Breece Hall for cheap in FA rather easily… hell I’d guess his production will mimic Singletary’s if the Bills waste a first rounder on him. 

Guys coming off the books like Singletary? Our only current RB that we have any trust in? 
 

How much more critical of an offensive piece can you get than being a player that is on the field for the offense more than anyone other than Allen or the OL. 
 

end of the day, when you find a good one you don’t have to worry about the position for a few years. Which goes for pretty much every position in the league. But it’s obvious we keep looking for a RB considering we’ve drafted 2 of them in recent years, and picked up multiple FAs every year looking for that piece. We just haven’t found it yet. 

[george c]

Blah, blah, blah…

The Bills take Hall. Simply a weapon that contributes big…frees Allen, frees the receivers underneath, and becomes an instant threat on the outside where DBs must watch..