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Bills FA rumors thread


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1 hour ago, Coach Tuesday said:

It seems like “13 Seconds” has become a Rorschach Test around here… either you think the roster had everything it needed to win that game and would’ve gone on to win the Super Bowl, so there’s nothing wrong with “running it back,” or you think they were 1-2 difference makers away from getting it done and should be aggressively trying to find that missing piece.

 

I fall into the second category.  The thing is, Beane’s post-season PC indicated he did too - he talked about needing to add speed and YAC to the offense, improving the pass rush, etc. - maybe you can find all of that later on in free agency or in the draft.  Let’s hope he does.  But at some point you cannot be content with just staying put, other teams are aggressively trying to improve, too, and we need to stay in the arms race to stay on top.  The offense needs more weapons, the secondary needs more speed, and the pass rush needs a closer - I cannot get excited about changing out veteran DTs and guards on Day 1 of free agency.  Go get the real difference-makers and let’s win this thing.

 

I would say like most discussions or disagreements they tend to be categorized in black or white terms.   Not everything is black or white, I would say most of the time the answers tend to be in the greyish area.   To win a Super Bowl, more often than not you have to have a couple things going in your favor, A) That you are a really good football team and B) a little bit of luck.     The more of A) you have the less of B) that is needed.

 

The Rams, has a good team but man did they have a lot of luck along the way.  They were almost eliminated from winning the Superbowl a few times and if they had not had a play or two go their way, a lot of people would be talking about how stupid it was of them to go all- in and not come away with a title.   

 

With that said, I think the statement is true that under the Bills team construct that they had last year, if the coaches and team would have handled what should have been a sure victory the way it should have, there is a decent chance that the Bills would have won the Super Bowl.   It truly is a game of inches.

 

What I do know is that this year the Bills will have to fill around 14-19 holes on the team due to the cuts and FA's that will go elsewhere.   That is a lot of holes to plug and cannot be done through the draft.  At most you can realistically hope that the Bills fill 5-7 through the draft, which means that they have to fill anywhere from 9-14 via FA.   Yesterday with tendering Bates, signing Mckenzie and picking up Saffold, Settles and Daquan, the Bills now have around 10-15 more that they have to replace.

 

Which means that there has to be extra room to be made in the CAP to fill those holes.  Which according to my behind the napkin math, we should be able to potentially free up another $25 - $30 M year if you extend/restructure Diggs, restructure Dawkins, cut Beasley, cut Matakavich, extend/restructure Edmunds (if the price is right) and a couple other small moves.

 

There is enough money for them to get a Chandler Jones and pick up 9-14 players more that they will need to fill the teams holes.   But the margin is super tight and probably would mean that Chandler wouldn't be chasing after the highest bidder to accept the offer that could be made.

 

However, assuming the Bills do a decent job in plugging the rest of the holes, yesterday I thought was a very positive day for the Bills.  The Bills weakest part of their offense last year in my opinion was picking up short yardage on needed plays via the RB's because of the line not being able to get the push needed.  Saffold helps with that, so in the trenches on offense the Bills upgraded.    The weakest part of the defense last year in my view was being able to stop the run in between the tackles and they improved on that front by picking up Settles and Daquan.  The Bills attacked the trenches yesterday and on paper the Bills should be a better team in running the ball and stopping the run.  

 

The Bills are right there, yes if they get a Chandler Jones it improves the odds even more so and I would think they will go after him, Zadarius Smith, Clowney or Miller.  Beane has made many comments on adding speed to the team, winning the trenches and getting after the QB.   They addressed the trenches yesterday, and I think they will go after the Edge rusher in the coming days.

Edited by Magox
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37 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

Bolded is because whether you get comp picks at all is decided only by number of relevant outgoings/incomings (which is 2/2 right now), and quality of the pick (i.e. which round) is determined only when you have more outgoings than incomings?

 

I am asking since apparently the way you listed is that outgoings should net more value.

 

Yes. First you must lose more than you gain. Only then does the cancellation formula kick in.

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11 minutes ago, Shake_My_Head said:

Not a fan of Shenault.   He was a guy without a position in college and has regressed as a WR in JAX....

 

https://primetimesportstalk.com/2022/01/17/jacksonville-jaguars-2021-season-recap/

 

Biggest Disappointment – Laviska Shenault

 

Shenault was primed for a breakout season as he was an unpolished receiver coming into the NFL. Entering his second season, Shenualt was expected to take a jump in running routes, and be more included as a gadget player. While the coaching staff failed to put Shenault into a position to succeed, he did himself no favors as his route running did not improve and his hands got worse. The concern going forward is now the drops, where Shenault had ten of them on 95 targets. A 13 percent drop rate may seem bad, but what was worse is many of the drops killed drives or were on critical plays. 

Wasn't a fan of Shenault either, especially around draft time like some on here were. Easy pass for me, unless it's for a 6th or a 7th. Sure as hell am not giving up a 3rd for him. 

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39 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Yes. First you must lose more than you gain. Only then does the cancellation formula kick in.

 

I believe you can have a net zero or even positive gain of CFAs and get a comp pick(s) if the CFAs lost are better than those gained.

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2 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

I believe you can have a net zero or even positive gain of CFAs and get a comp pick(s) if the CFAs lost are better than those gained.

 

Only if they are non-qualifying. So let's say you lose 2 and gain 4 but three of the ones you gain are not in the top 32 in terms of AAV (or top however many it is left to allocate once the minority hire picks have been allocated) then you can get a pick. 

 

Over the Cap is actually forecasting Jones will be non-qualifying that Harrison and Mitch are both only 6th round value with Settle cancelling one if those as 7th round value.

 

So actually as of now OTC suggests we would get one 6th rounder.

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10 hours ago, Tim Anderson's Lunch Pail said:


What team is immune from making some bad signings? The Super Bowl Rams screwed up with Goff. It happens. 

 

Good to see TA's Lunch Pail posting again! :lol:

 

It's very true that all teams make them............but most of Beane's mistakes have been over-swings on veterans of modest potential,  not a swing and a miss on a franchise QB.

 

Those over-pays accumulate with 51 players counting toward the cap.......... and that put them in a much tighter cap situation than they should have been after 2020........a time when they should have had the financial freedom to address needs,  but could not.    

 

And the period where the most damage was done was when Beane might have been getting the most props from Bills fans.........the time from his hiring in 2017 thru free agency 2018.

 

Started with small waste........giving Shady a $2M bonus for nothing.......then extending Eric Wood early for no reason,  trading for Kelvin Benjamin, signing Lotulelei, Murphy, Kroft...........that's over $100M in cap space wasted on those all-failed moves alone.     All the while he blamed the prior regime for bad cap management and fans were eating that nonsense up. :doh:  

 

Beane has definitely improved as an individual contract decision maker............he was forced to be smarter by the tight financial situation he created............but now it's about strategy IMO...........do you distribute your limited resources for more role players or do you add 1 or 2 difference makers?    I think the latter is in order.      

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2 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

I would still be all over James Daniels to play RG at this juncture. I really like his upside, and while I like Ryan Bates a lot, low tendering him tells me that maybe they aren't completely sold yet. But we shall see. 

Daniel’s at RG with Bates the swing guard and back up center sounds pretty good but I’m not sure Beane is going to put another big contract on the OL right now.  

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2 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

It seems like “13 Seconds” has become a Rorschach Test around here… either you think the roster had everything it needed to win that game and would’ve gone on to win the Super Bowl, so there’s nothing wrong with “running it back,” or you think they were 1-2 difference makers away from getting it done and should be aggressively trying to find that missing piece.

 

I guess I am the second category but for me 13 seconds don't matter. They blew it straight up, but that was also last season. Each season is its own fire with trials and tribulations, some years easy then others. A season like 2020 is not something that happens regularly where you can basically run the table with little resistance for the division, 2021 is far more normal even for great teams where there are more ups and downs to get to the finish line in 1st divisionally ready to go playoff wise. Additionally even if you run it back with a similar roster that team will still be different in composure and energy no matter what.  

 

I think every season you enter is its own entity and you always need to approach it with the idea of creating the best roster possible. The Bills are a SB contender so yea any year you don't win the SB it should be considered a blown opportunity whether it is 13 seconds or losing the AFC title game by a wider margin. In regards to roster construction though some years it is easier to be aggressive and add a true difference maker or two vs some years where you have attrition of varying levels.

 

My personal belief is they have approached this offseason properly so far to make the necessary cuts while shoring areas of need at OL and DT 2x. I really would like a true difference maker at DE like Jones or Hunter so the kids like Rosseau, Boggie, & AJ can have a seasoned guy in front. That would open the draft to WR/CB big time which there is a lot of talent for. You can get a vet CB even late if they need to shore up CB2. Truthfully since they took over McBeane there hasn't been an offseason I didn't at least like what they attempted to do. Some years went better (2019/20) compared to others (18/21) but I have never thought mgmt has shy'd away from knowing their areas of weakness and addressing it. In terms of moving the franchise forward and setting Josh up for success 2019 is one of the teams best offseasons ever as Morse/Beasely/J Brown/Feliciano all played big roles in helping Josh find his way. Sure we only have Morse and Beasley left (who is probably gone) but they were all good signings to move things along. To me the draft is far more important this year as if they can find 2-3 true starters at WR/CB especially it really gives you strong cheap talent which will allow the next off season or two you to be more aggressive at areas of need.

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1 hour ago, Magox said:

 

I would say like most discussions or disagreements they tend to be categorized in black or white terms.   Not everything is black or white, I would say most of the time the answers tend to be in the greyish area.   To win a Super Bowl, more often than not you have to have a couple things going in your favor, A) That you are a really good football team and B) a little bit of luck.     The more of A) you have the less of B) that is needed.

 

The Rams, has a good team but man did they have a lot of luck along the way.  They were almost eliminated from winning the Superbowl a few times and if they had not had a play or two go their way, a lot of people would be talking about how stupid it was of them to go all- in and not come away with a title.   

 

With that said, I think the statement is true that under the Bills team construct that they had last year, if the coaches and team would have handled what should have been a sure victory the way it should have, there is a decent chance that the Bills would have won the Super Bowl.   It truly is a game of inches.

 

What I do know is that this year the Bills will have to fill around 14-19 holes on the team due to the cuts and FA's that will go elsewhere.   That is a lot of holes to plug and cannot be done through the draft.  At most you can realistically hope that the Bills fill 5-7 through the draft, which means that they have to fill anywhere from 9-14 via FA.   Yesterday with tendering Bates, signing Mckenzie and picking up Saffold, Settles and Daquan, the Bills now have around 10-15 more that they have to replace.

 

Which means that there has to be extra room to be made in the CAP to fill those holes.  Which according to my behind the napkin math, we should be able to potentially free up another $25 - $30 M year if you extend/restructure Diggs, restructure Dawkins, cut Beasley, cut Matakavich, extend/restructure Edmunds (if the price is right) and a couple other small moves.

 

There is enough money for them to get a Chandler Jones and pick up 9-14 players more that they will need to fill the teams holes.   But the margin is super tight and probably would mean that Chandler wouldn't be chasing after the highest bidder to accept the offer that could be made.

 

However, assuming the Bills do a decent job in plugging the rest of the holes, yesterday I thought was a very positive day for the Bills.  The Bills weakest part of their offense last year in my opinion was picking up short yardage on needed plays via the RB's because of the line not being able to get the push needed.  Saffold helps with that, so in the trenches on offense the Bills upgraded.    The weakest part of the defense last year in my view was being able to stop the run in between the tackles and they improved on that front by picking up Settles and Daquan.  The Bills attacked the trenches yesterday and on paper the Bills should be a better team in running the ball and stopping the run.  

 

The Bills are right there, yes if they get a Chandler Jones it improves the odds even more so and I would think they will go after him, Zadarius Smith, Clowney or Miller.  Beane has made many comments on adding speed to the team, winning the trenches and getting after the QB.   They addressed the trenches yesterday, and I think they will go after the Edge rusher in the coming days.

 

I'm curious.  How did you come to the number that we need to fill 14-19 holes?

Are you counting third stringers and practice squad guys too?  I don't think you can really count those guys as "holes" since they can usually be filled with undrafted free agents and guys making the league minimum.  It's nowhere near as bad as you are making it sound.

 

 

In terms of starters, the Bills basically went into free agency needing:

WR to replace Emmanuel Sanders (although we likely see more playing time for Gabe Davis)

OG to replace Jon Feliciano/Ryan Bates/Ike Boettger

DE to replace Jerry Hughes/Mario Addison

DT to replace Harrison Phillips

CB to replace Levi Wallace

 

If you want to add our key backups:

QB to replace Mitch Trubisky

Gadget WR to replace Isaiah McKenzie

LB to replace AJ Klein

 

You can probably also include:

WR to replace Cole Beasley, assuming he does get traded

TE2, since many believe we are going to play more 12 and 22 personnel.

 

That gave us about 10 true holes going into free agency.  In the first 24 hours, Brandon Beane has already re-signed McKenzie and tendered Ryan Bates.  He's also addressed the DT position with DaQuan Jones and Tim Settle.  That takes us down to only seven spots.  I would note that if Beasley does get traded, it opens up cap space and likely means more playing time for McKenzie.  So not necessarily a hole either.

He also basically swapped the other guard position by releasing Darryl Williams and signing Roger Saffold (probably an upgrade).

 

 

 

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34 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Good to see TA's Lunch Pail posting again! :lol:

 

Agreed! That really is a top 10 screen name imo, right up there with "Tortured Soul,""Pass the Pipe," and "Pills N Bills."  😂

 

The name "Tim Anderson's Lunch Pail" does a great job of encapsulating much of the absurdity of that era of the Bills. 👍

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8 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

I'm curious.  How did you come to the number that we need to fill 14-19 holes?

Are you counting third stringers and practice squad guys too?  I don't think you can really count those guys as "holes" since they can usually be filled with undrafted free agents and guys making the league minimum.  It's nowhere near as bad as you are making it sound.

 

 

In terms of starters, the Bills basically went into free agency needing:

WR to replace Emmanuel Sanders (although we likely see more playing time for Gabe Davis)

OG to replace Jon Feliciano/Ryan Bates/Ike Boettger

DE to replace Jerry Hughes/Mario Addison

DT to replace Harrison Phillips

CB to replace Levi Wallace

 

If you want to add our key backups:

QB to replace Mitch Trubisky

Gadget WR to replace Isaiah McKenzie

LB to replace AJ Klein

 

You can probably also include:

WR to replace Cole Beasley, assuming he does get traded

TE2, since many believe we are going to play more 12 and 22 personnel.

 

That gave us about 10 true holes going into free agency.  In the first 24 hours, Brandon Beane has already re-signed McKenzie and tendered Ryan Bates.  He's also addressed the DT position with DaQuan Jones and Tim Settle.  That takes us down to only seven spots.  I would note that if Beasley does get traded, it opens up cap space and likely means more playing time for McKenzie.  So not necessarily a hole either.

He also basically swapped the other guard position by releasing Darryl Williams and signing Roger Saffold (probably an upgrade).

 

 

 


 

I wasn’t including practice squaders

 

QB - Trubisky

RB - Taiwan Jones, Breida

WR - McKenzie (been addressed, Sanders,  Beasley

OL - Darryl Williams (was addressed with Saffold, Mongo, Cody Ford (potentially), Boettger (potentially), Bates (addressed)

TE - Sweeney (potentially), Gilliam (potentially)

 

DE - Addison, Hughes, Obada (potentially)

DT - Star (potentially), Butler (Addressed Settles), Phillips (addressed Daquan)

LB - Klein, Matakavich (potentially)

CB - Levi Wallace

 

Some of these will most likely remain, but I think it’s safe to say that 15+ new players will be on the roster

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50 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

I would still be all over James Daniels to play RG at this juncture. I really like his upside, and while I like Ryan Bates a lot, low tendering him tells me that maybe they aren't completely sold yet. But we shall see. 


Would be all about James Daniels. I would ideally like the oline set prior to the draft.

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1 hour ago, Magox said:

 

I would say like most discussions or disagreements they tend to be categorized in black or white terms.   Not everything is black or white, I would say most of the time the answers tend to be in the greyish area.   To win a Super Bowl, more often than not you have to have a couple things going in your favor, A) That you are a really good football team and B) a little bit of luck.     The more of A) you have the less of B) that is needed.

 

The Rams, has a good team but man did they have a lot of luck along the way.  They were almost eliminated from winning the Superbowl a few times and if they had not had a play or two go their way, a lot of people would be talking about how stupid it was of them to go all- in and not come away with a title.   

 

With that said, I think the statement is true that under the Bills team construct that they had last year, if the coaches and team would have handled what should have been a sure victory the way it should have, there is a decent chance that the Bills would have won the Super Bowl.   It truly is a game of inches.

 

What I do know is that this year the Bills will have to fill around 14-19 holes on the team due to the cuts and FA's that will go elsewhere.   That is a lot of holes to plug and cannot be done through the draft.  At most you can realistically hope that the Bills fill 5-7 through the draft, which means that they have to fill anywhere from 9-14 via FA.   Yesterday with tendering Bates, signing Mckenzie and picking up Saffold, Settles and Daquan, the Bills now have around 10-15 more that they have to replace.

 

Which means that there has to be extra room to be made in the CAP to fill those holes.  Which according to my behind the napkin math, we should be able to potentially free up another $25 - $30 M year if you extend/restructure Diggs, restructure Dawkins, cut Beasley, cut Matakavich, extend/restructure Edmunds (if the price is right) and a couple other small moves.

 

There is enough money for them to get a Chandler Jones and pick up 9-14 players more that they will need to fill the teams holes.   But the margin is super tight and probably would mean that Chandler wouldn't be chasing after the highest bidder to accept the offer that could be made.

 

However, assuming the Bills do a decent job in plugging the rest of the holes, yesterday I thought was a very positive day for the Bills.  The Bills weakest part of their offense last year in my opinion was picking up short yardage on needed plays via the RB's because of the line not being able to get the push needed.  Saffold helps with that, so in the trenches on offense the Bills upgraded.    The weakest part of the defense last year in my view was being able to stop the run in between the tackles and they improved on that front by picking up Settles and Daquan.  The Bills attacked the trenches yesterday and on paper the Bills should be a better team in running the ball and stopping the run.  

 

The Bills are right there, yes if they get a Chandler Jones it improves the odds even more so and I would think they will go after him, Zadarius Smith, Clowney or Miller.  Beane has made many comments on adding speed to the team, winning the trenches and getting after the QB.   They addressed the trenches yesterday, and I think they will go after the Edge rusher in the coming days.

 

Excellent post.

 

If you look season by season, the team with the best roster doesn't always win the Super Bowl. 

Too many other factors come into play.  Especially in the playoffs, when a single mistake can lose a game.

 

Once you get to the Divisional/Final 8 and Championship/Final 4 rounds, the teams are very even.  It often comes down to matchups, injuries, execution and even a bit of luck.  The Rams were not the best team in the NFL, and could have easily been eliminated by the Bucs or the 49ers.  The Bengals were not the best team in the AFC, and barely scraped out all three playoff wins.

 

Honestly, a team's primary goal should be fielding a Top 5-7 team and winning their division.  (We did that).  Hopefully seeding works out where they get multiple home playoff games, and you go into the postseason healthy and playing well.  Then cross your fingers that all of the chips fall right over the next 3-4 weeks where they can pull it all out.  Better communication on a kickoff, and/or calling heads on the coin flip, and this season could have been totally different.

 

Yes, there are absolutely places the Bills can improve.  But even if Beane manages to upgrade all of those spots, it will by no means guarantee them a championship next season.  

 

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16 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

Agreed! That really is a top 10 screen name imo, right up there with "Tortured Soul,""Pass the Pipe," and "Pills N Bills."  😂

 

The name "Tim Anderson's Lunch Pail" does a great job of encapsulating much of the absurdity of that era of the Bills. 👍

Don’t forget Cutting Drew With Dignity! :worthy:

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7 minutes ago, Magox said:

I wasn’t including practice squaders

 

QB - Trubisky

RB - Taiwan Jones, Breida

WR - McKenzie (been addressed, Sanders,  Beasley

OL - Darryl Williams (was addressed with Saffold, Mongo, Cody Ford (potentially), Boettger (potentially), Bates (addressed)

TE - Sweeney (potentially), Gilliam (potentially)

 

DE - Addison, Hughes, Obada (potentially)

DT - Star (potentially), Butler (Addressed Settles), Phillips (addressed Daquan)

LB - Klein, Matakavich (potentially)

CB - Levi Wallace

 

Some of these will most likely remain, but I think it’s safe to say that 15+ new players will be on the roster

 

Gotcha.  I was curious where that number came from.

 

I wouldn't really consider Matt Breida a hole.  He was 3rd on the roster and inactive most of the season.

Jon Feliciano, Ike Boettger and Ryan Bates were basically one position.  We don't need to replace each individually.

 

 

Cole Beasley, Tommy Sweeney, Cody Ford, Reggie Gilliam, Star Lotulelei and Tyler Matakevich are still under contract.  If we get rid of those guys, it will be to either gain more cap space or to add more draft picks.

 

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