Gunner's 2022 Mock Draft (v3 and FINAL - p.17!!)

[GunnerBill]

The pain of last weekend slowly gives way to the realisation that we are firmly in draft season and so here is my first stab at a 2022 mock draft. There are more unknowns than normal by this time of year because we still have the Championship games to go (because the season is a week longer) and because we still have SIX unfilled head coaching jobs. So there is a fair amount of speculation that has had to go into this coupled with the fact that I already think this is one of the least predictable first rounds in years. Firstly, there are lot of picks that already belong to teams other than those to who they originally belong (Giants, Lions and Jets have two picks each, the Eagles have 3 and the Dolphins have one but it isn't their own) and secondly, there are not many players genuinely separating themselves at the very top of this class and are a LOT of players who, frankly, could go anywhere from about 8th overall to about 48th overall. Scheme fits, positional value and need are going to play into this first round a lot more than a normal first round and I think the cliched "Best Player Available" will be an even more abstract concept this year than normal.

 

Last year when I did my first mock in early Feb I did a two round edition and I do plan to update this in February with a two round version once all the coaches are hired and things are somewhat more settled. But for now, here is an early stab at the first 32 picks of the 2022 NFL Draft. Enjoy reading!

 

1 - Jacksonville Jaguars – Aiden Hutchinson, EDGE, Michigan

When you pick 1st overall in consecutive seasons and spend the first of those on a Quarterback what you are really hoping is that there is a potential franchise Quarterback there the second year to allow you to move back and collect picks. However, unfortunately for the Jags, there isn’t. The choice comes down to reach for an offensive tackle – which is a need – or stay put and take the best player on the board. Until the Jags hire a coach and sort out the GM spot I am going to err on the side of them doing the latter.

 

2 – Detroit Lions – Kayvon Thibodeaux, EDGE, Oregan

In contrast this couldn’t set up much better for the Lions. They were 29th in pressuring the Quarterback and 30th in sacks in 2021. They have the 2nd overall pick and the consensus top two players on the board are edge rushers. I personally think they’d prefer Hutchinson and so if the Jags go offensive line expect him to be the pick but if the Jags take him, I still expect them to more than content with Thibodeaux.

 

3 – Houston Texans – Kyle Hamilton, Safety, Notre Dame

A safety? At third overall? I agree it feels a bad positional value… but this is not a great draft in terms of elite players at the top and Kyle Hamilton is one guy who does fit that mold. And then think about Houston’s General Manager. Nick Caserio comes from New England where they have valued safety play. They draft and then paid Devin McCourty handsomely and spent a second two years ago on Kyle Dugger when they had more obvious and immediate needs. Hamilton reminds me of Derwin James coming out. Yes he can play as a coverage eraser in center field but he can do so much more than that. This guy is a matchup monster who can do it all.

 

4 – New York Jets – Ikem Ekwonu, Offensive Tackle, North Carolina State

The Jets have thrown picks at their offensive line in recent years in Mekhi Becton and Alijah Vera-Tucker. Both were good as rookies but the idea in 2021 was to have them together holding down Zack Wilson’s blindside. Instead Becton played just one game, suffering a knee injury week one that was originally a 4 to 6 week deal, but kept him out the rest of the year. The noises from inside the franchise are not good. His work ethic has been questioned and his weight issues from college have returned which hampered the recovery. I can see the Jets trying again with Ekwonu who could play right tackle, or guard, if Becton does get it together but can take over at left tackle if he doesn’t.

 

5 – New York Giants – Evan Neal, Offensive Tackle, Alabama

Can anyone remember the last time the Giants’ offensive line didn’t suck? Nor me. Andrew Thomas had a solid sophomore season after struggling as a rookie at left tackle but the broken down body of Nate Solder was a turnstile on the right hand side. Anyone who has watched Brian Daboll’s offenses in Buffalo knows that his Quarterback is going to need the edges protecting and Daniel Jones, while athletic, is not Josh Allen in terms of being able to escape. Personally I am unconvinced by Neal as a left tackle prospect at the NFL level and that does put a ceiling on his value. But in this scenario as a right tackle he makes a lot of sense for the Giants.

 

6 – Carolina Panthers – Charles Cross, Offensive Tackle, Mississippi State

Carolina’s biggest need is obviously Quarterback. I suspect they are going to try again for Deshaun Watson depending on his status by March because Rhule needs to win in 2022 and trusting a rookie Quarterback would be scary. But after that it is offensive line. Here is a start for you and for @BillfromNYC in particular…. The Panthers have drafted THREE first round running backs since they last spent a first round pick on the offensive line (2003). That surely has to change because that unit is a liability. Cross is my #1 offensive tackle and I think he is a guy you plug and play for a decade on the blindside.

 

7 – New York Giants – Ahmad Gardner, Cornerback, Cincinnati

I hope nobody popped out for coffee in the Giants war room, ‘cos they are right back on the clock! As of the time of writing Brian Daboll has not hired a defensive coordinator but the name I have heard multiple times is Wink Martindale. The Giants have a need at corner and Wink values length and ability to play man coverage. Step forward Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner who is going to be higher on boards than most people would imagine.

 

8 – Atlanta Falcons – David Ojabo, EDGE, Michigan

This pick for the Falcons comes down to edge rusher or corner. They have major needs in both spots. I just think Ojabo is Defensive Coordinator Dean Pees’ type of edge rusher. Long, fast, bendy… has the physical attributes. His one year production is going to put some teams off and I think he is more a 3-4 OLB than a hand in the dirt defensive end but that is a perfect fit for what Atlanta runs.

 

9 – Denver Broncos – Kenny Pickett, Quarterback, Pittsburgh

Now this might all be moot if as some suspect Aaron Rodgers follows his former offensive coordinator Nate Hackett to Mile High. But the Broncos need somehow to find a Quarterback and so in a world where they haven’t landed Rodgers in a trade I have them reaching for Kenny Pickett who I think could run Hackett’s system effectively even if I don’t see the ceiling that you might want to compete in a division with Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert.

 

10 – New York Jets – Derek Stingley Jr, Cornerback, LSU

The Jets were playing overachieving late round picks in the secondary last year. Stingley has never quite scaled the heights of his freshman year again in 2020 or 2021 but if he lasts here until 10 the Jets would sprint to the podium. Huge upgrade.

 

11 – Washington Football Team – Matt Corral, Quarterback, Ole Miss

The Washington Football team always seems to find itself playing the Quarterback market in the wrong year. This is not a great group and this feels a reach for Corral who just plays a little bit robotic when I have watched him. Doesn’t look like a natural passer. But they have to do something here and I am not sure it is an attractive destination for any signal callers in the trade market.

 

12 – Minnesota Vikings – Andrew Booth, Cornerback, Clemson

Kwasi Adofo-Mensah is an intriguing hire as GM by the Vikings because he is from an analytics background rather than the traditional scouting background. While the Vikings have needs all over their defense the analytics in recent years lean towards spending capital on defensive backs rather than defensive linemen as the league because increasingly pass centric. Booth is actually my #1 corner in the draft but I wouldn’t be as high on him here if the Vikings were to hire a defensive coordinator who is going to be primarily a man coverage guy. Booth reminds me a ton of Tre White as a guy who can get physical and press but excels in zone.

 

13 – Cleveland Browns – George Karlaftis, EDGE, Purdue

The Browns big areas of need are defensive line and wide receiver. I thought about a receiver here but with the class having depth I wonder if they wait on that and instead bring in Karlaftis as a replacement for Jadaveon Clowney who had a very good year but the Browns likely can’t afford to keep. Skillset wise he is similar to Clowney. He is a bigger end who is going to set the set the edge and force plays towards Garrett while also notching clean up sacks when QBs are trying to escape the pocket his side.

 

14 – Baltimore Ravens – DeMarvin Leal, Defensive Tackle, Texas A&M

The Ravens defensive line is old. Calais Campbell is 35, Brandon Williams is 32 and Derek Wolfe is 31. They need to get younger up front. Leal would be a great start. There is a mix of views on his best positional fit among evaluators. Some see his best fit as a 3 tech in a 4 man front but I like him as a 5 tech defensive end in a 3-4 and I think he’d be a day 1 starter at that spot for the Ravens.

 

15 – Philadelphia Eagles – Tyler Linderbaum, Center, Iowa

This is one of the most popular mock draft picks in the early weeks of draft season, but it just makes so much sense. The Eagles future Hall of Fame center Jason Kelce is 34 and Linderbaum reminds me of him in the sense of being “undersized” compare to the prototype NFL center but a guy who is smart and moves well.

 

16 – Philadelphia Eagles – Devin Lloyd, Linebacker, Utah

The Eagles defensive scheme reminds me a lot of what Sean McDermott and Leslie Frazier have done with the Bills. As such I can see a long, athletic, rangy middle linebacker being attractive to Defensive Coordinator Jonathan Gannon and Lloyd fits the bill.

 

17 – Los Angeles Chargers – Kyler Gordon, Cornerback, Washington

Brandon Staley’s defense has to get better. Part of that has to be about improving the play in the secondary. To play in Staley’s scheme a corner needs to be comfortable in both man and zone (and last season’s second round pick Asante Samuel has struggled with zone concepts) which makes me think Kyler Gordon is the best fit of the second-tier corners.

 

18 – New Orleans Saints – Treylon Burks, Wide Receiver, Arkansas

Honestly the Saints have holes all over the place and likely need to create some more to get within the salary cap. But their biggest hole is at receiver. Their leading receiver in 2021 was Marcus Calloway with 698 yards and he struggles with drops. Michael Thomas’s future is up in the air so I think someone like Burks who can take short passes and make big gains would be attractive.

 

19 – Philadelphia Eagles – Cameron Thomas, EDGE, San Diego State

We know the MO of Eagles GM Howie Roseman. He builds the lines. I already have them going oline with one of their three first round picks in this draft and now I see them switching to defense. Derek Barnett is out of contract and has never quite justified his draft status, I don’t expect him to be brought back and Ryan Kerrigan (his backup) is a FA too. Cam Thomas has exceptional hands which reminds me a bit of Barnett coming out and I know Roseman values that in his rushers.

 

20 – Pittsburgh Steelers – Kenyon Green, Guard, Texas A&M

The Steelers number 1 need is clearly a Quarterback, but I just don’t see reaching on one as Kevin Colbert’s style, even though he is stepping down after the draft. Their offensive line has been a problem for a couple of seasons now. They drafted Dan Moore in the 4th round last year and have him penciled in to start at left tackle. I think Green would slot in very nicely alongside him.

 

21 – New England Patriots – Chris Olave, Wide Receiver, Ohio State

The Patriots have not got a great track record drafting wide receivers early in the draft. Part of that is that their offense (similar to Buffalo’s) asks the receivers to read the coverage almost as much as the Quarterback. But they just have to get more explosive on offense. Chris Olave is the smoothest route runner in this class and if, as some suspect, he runs a 4.3 he is in play to go earlier than this. But if he is there at #21 the Patriots should make sure he falls no further. He doesn’t need a Quarterback with a big arm to throw a deep ball. Olave can catch a 5 yard pass and take it the distance.

 

22 – Las Vegas Raiders – Trevor Penning, Offensive Tackle, Northern Iowa

The Raiders offensive line was a hot mess in 2021. Kolton Miller at left tackle was a Gruden and Mayock pick and they were determined, despite all the evidence, to force it to work – a new regime might well move on. As for Alex Leatherwood who they drafted in the first round (and reached for) last year… he failed at tackle and is now playing guard (where I always thought his NFL future lay). Trevor Penning might finally give them their answer at left tackle. He is raw but he is a monster and his ceiling is sky high.

 

23 – Arizona Cardinals – Jordan Davis, Defensive Tackle, Georgia

The big man comes off the board! The Cardinals had a big free agency swing at a big man who could penetrate up front when they signed Jordan Phillips from the Buffalo Bills before the 2020 season. He has logged just 5 sacks in two seasons and their starting nose tackle Corey Peters is a 33-year-old free agent too. Davis brings a nice mix of the two skill sets.  

 

24 – Dallas Cowboys – Nakobe Dean, Linebacker, Georgia

Back to back Bulldogs! This projection is all about Dan Quinn’s decision to stay with Dallas as Defensive Coordinator. Leighton Vander Esch is a free agent and is not a priority to retain. Micah Parsons is defensive rookie of the year, but is as much an edge rusher as a linebacker… and Nakobe Dean reminds me so much of Deion Jones coming out of LSU who excelled in Quinn’s defense with the Falcons.

 

25 – Buffalo Bills – Jameson Williams, Wide Receiver, Alabama

If Williams had not suffered an ACL tear in the National Championship game then I suspect there was very little chance of him dropping to this spot. The Bills more than most teams could afford to wait if Williams is not ready to contribute week 1. He was clocked in the 4.3s before his injury this season. If the Bills are confident he will retain that game breaking speed he would be a steal here.

 

26 – Tennessee Titans – Trey McBride, Tight End, Colorado

Hard to know where to go for the Titans. They don’t have a ton of needs, but they also don’t have a 2nd round pick having traded it to the Falcons for Julio Jones. Offensive line is possible, linebacker is a need but the two first round talents are off the board, so I wonder if they might be interested in McBride as a replacement for Jonnu Smith who departed for New England last spring. A two way tight end that can block and be an option in the passing game would help this offense.

 

27 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Travon Walker, Defensive Tackle, Georgia

Given recent news a Quarterback is a possibility here. I wonder if Bruce Arians might be attracted to Malik Willis the big armed kid out of Liberty and getting back to more of his traditional Air Coryell routes rather than Brady’s dink and dunk. However, they need to continue the youth movement up front too. Joe Tryon played well in spot duty as a rookie on the edge but William Gholston is a free agent at the 3-4 defensive end spot and Walker is a similar physical profile and could slide into that role.

 

28 – Green Bay Packers – Drake London, Wide Receiver, USC

I feel like the Packers do not want to pick a receiver in the 1st round while Rodgers is there – just out of pure belligerence. But if Davonte Adams walks as a free agent then they might have no other option. Drake London is a prototypical #1 outside receiver and whether it is Rodgers, Jordan Love or someone else throwing the ball if it is within his radius he is going to come down with it.

 

29 – Miami Dolphins – Garrett Wilson, Wide Receiver, Ohio State

Stop me if you have heard this before… but Miami needs receivers and offensive linemen, despite a lot of investment in both spots in recent years. Jaylon Waddle was a major hit as a rookie but Will Fuller as a one year rental did not work out, Preston Williams can’t stay healthy and Devante Parker is a possible cap casualty. With Tua as your Quarterback you need YAC guys and so Garrett Wilson out of Ohio State feels like a fit.

 

30 – Cincinnati Bengals – Nicholas Petit-Frere, Offensive Tackle, Ohio State

I will say it until I am blue in the face but Cincinnati has to get better up front. I’d have drafted Penei Sewell at #5 last year and he was a beast down the stretch for the Lions, but Chase was likely the rookie of the year so you can’t blame them for going that route. The problem is they have won too many games to be in range for one of the premium tackles in this class. That said Petit-Frere is a nice prospect and I think he is a natural left tackle so would likely represent an upgrade on Jonah Williams who you either flip to right tackle or slide inside to guard where Quinton Spain (their best lineman in 2021) is a free agent.

 

31 – Detroit Lions – Jaquan Brisker, Safety, Penn State

This is a spot where the Lions could absolutely take a swing at a Quarterback. If they do I’d look for a toolsy developmental guy either Willis or Desmond Ridder to come and sit for a year behind Jared Goff. However, because none of this class really pops to me and because Goff played well down the stretch (70% completion, 11 TDs and 2 INTs in his final 5 games) I have them going in a different direction. Their secondary has been a problem for a number of years under consecutive coaching staffs and their safety play in particular was atrocious in 2021. Jaquan Brisker and Jordan Battle are the second tier of safeties in this class, but I think Brisker is the superior coverage player and so I have gone with him here.

 

32 – Kansas City Chiefs – Roger McCreary, Corner, Auburn

My views on Kansas City’s corner situation is well known. L’Jarius Sneed is their best corner but he is a nickel guy primarily and they need better play on the boundary. There are three guys on the board who could come under consideration in this spot if a corner is the selection: McCreary, Trent McDuffie and Kaiir Elam but I think McCreary is the best man coverage guy of those three and in Spagnuolo’s scheme he wants to be able to bring the house and have his corners hold up outside.

 

 

Flame away!

Edited April 28, 2022 by GunnerBill

[No_Matter_What]

I'll have a look on everything later, but as for the Bills - I love it. Top WR prospect with speed falling due to injury? Count me in.

 

Best IOL/CB available in rounds 2/3 and let's roll.

[chongli]

Thanks for doing this long evaluation. I hope Williams would work out for Buffalo, but for some reason I am having flashbacks of Willis McGahee, lol. Who knows?

[Solomon Grundy]

@GunnerBill, I'd be over the moon if the Bills were able to draft Jameson Williams. Immediate impact is what I'm looking for in this draft and he's it

[Coach Tuesday]

Carolina picked Otah in the first round in 2008 fyi.

 

Hows that for a nit pick!  Good stuff.

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Carolina picked Otah in the first round in 2008 fyi.

 

Hows that for a nit pick!  Good stuff.

 

Excellent spot, they did. With a second first round pick, after spending their first on a running back!  But the point stands... one offensive lineman and three running backs in the last 19 first rounds. 

[Seventeen]

What do you think about Pickett to the Falcons @ 8 ? Ryan will be 37 this year and their current backups are not the answer. 

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, Roy Hobbs said:

What do you think about Pickett to the Falcons @ 8 ? Ryan will be 37 this year and their current backups are not the answer. 

 

I think Atlanta is going to stick with Matt Ryan another year. Couple of people I have spoken to who are Atlanta fans and follow the team closely are convinced they are not going QB in Round 1. 

[MarkyMannn]

GB I like your posts. But, Willis McGahee, I'm not drafting guys in the first round with a blown out knee. No........

[entropyrules]

Gunner-just a great analysis - thanks for the work you put in.

 

Not sure its a good idea to take an injured player - too much of a roll of the dice. Would rather see the Bills try and move up and get Jordan Davis. The Bills need a corner desperately but if Davis is the real deal that will help take some pressure off the corners. I am hoping that Beane packages those late round picks and tries to move up so there are about 5 picks between the 1st and 4th rounds. As seen by last year they simply can't hang onto all their picks so go for quality rather than quantity.

 

If they do hang onto those late round picks please draft a punter!!! I hope they never have to use him but as seen this season that position can be critical to winning a game.

Edited January 30, 2022 by entropyrules

[whorlnut]

26 minutes ago, chongli said:

Thanks for doing this long evaluation. I hope Williams would work out for Buffalo, but for some reason I am having flashbacks of Willis McGahee, lol. Who knows?

You realize Willis mcgahee was very solid while he was here, right?

3 minutes ago, MarkyMannn said:

GB I like your posts. But, Willis McGahee, I'm not drafting guys in the first round with a blown out knee. No........

I’m sure the Titans are regretting taking Jeffrey Simmons in the first, huh?

[Beast]

5 minutes ago, MarkyMannn said:

GB I like your posts. But, Willis McGahee, I'm not drafting guys in the first round with a blown out knee. No........

There are torn ACL’s and then there was Willis McGahee’s blown out knee. Big difference, though McGahee still ended up being worth a first round pick.

[whorlnut]

OP…thanks for taking the time to do all that. Amazing work. Well done. 
 

As for the pick…LOVE IT!!!!  Finally…people are understanding that the Bills need to “keep their fastball” as Beane put it last year. Right before he drafted 2 (!) DEs in the first consecutive rounds. 
 

Williams would be an amazing find at that spot and we would be getting a top 10 pick at 25 because of an injury that is no longer a threat of a complete return. People are getting too worked up over this injury. ACLs are 6-9 month injuries these days. We would be getting returns this year. 
 

Do we need another corner?  Maybe. Maybe not. Levi and Dane did very well together…all things considered. We could vet easily take a corner in the mid rounds or add a vet to compete for CB2. The idea that it has to be a first rounder is off IMO. We have donated enough premium picks on the defense. It’s time to show Allen and the offense that they are worth a first round pick. 
 

Again… GREAT JOB!!!

1 minute ago, Beast said:

There are torn ACL’s and then there was Willis McGahee’s blown out knee. Big difference, though McGahee still ended up being worth a first round pick.

Exactly…McGahee’s knee was completely mangled. Plus, ACL surgery and recovery has come a long way in the last 20 years. 

[JohnBonhamRocks]

Anyone else still find a little bit of happiness in regularly having to scroll so far down to the Bills pick in mock drafts?

 

Jameson is always the right choice.

 

[chongli]

9 minutes ago, whorlnut said:

You realize Willis mcgahee was very solid while he was here, right?

 

Sure, he was a good player, but he was projected to go late 3rd round in the draft. I think the Bills overdrafted him.

[Magox]

34 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

The pain of last weekend slowly gives way to the realisation that we are firmly in draft season and so here is my first stab at a 2022 mock draft. There are more unknowns than normal by this time of year because we still have the Championship games to go (because the season is a week longer) and because we still have SIX unfilled head coaching jobs. So there is a fair amount of speculation that has had to go into this coupled with the fact that I already think this is one of the least predictable first rounds in years. Firstly, there are lot of picks that already belong to teams other than those to who they originally belong (Giants, Lions and Jets have two picks each, the Eagles have 3 and the Dolphins have one but it isn't their own) and secondly, there are not many players genuinely separating themselves at the very top of this class and are a LOT of players who, frankly, could go anywhere from about 8th overall to about 48th overall. Scheme fits, positional value and need are going to play into this first round a lot more than a normal first round and I think the cliched "Best Player Available" will be an even more abstract concept this year than normal.

 

Last year when I did my first mock in early Feb I did a two round edition and I do plan to update this in February with a two round version once all the coaches are hired and things are somewhat more settled. But for now, here is an early stab at the first 32 picks of the 2022 NFL Draft. Enjoy reading!

 

1 - Jacksonville Jaguars – Aiden Hutchinson, EDGE, Michigan

When you pick 1st overall in consecutive seasons and spend the first of those on a Quarterback what you are really hoping is that there is a potential franchise Quarterback there the second year to allow you to move back and collect picks. However, unfortunately for the Jags, there isn’t. The choice comes down to reach for an offensive tackle – which is a need – or stay put and take the best player on the board. Until the Jags hire a coach and sort out the GM spot I am going to err on the side of them doing the latter.

 

2 – Detroit Lions – Kayvon Thibodeaux, EDGE, Oregan

In contrast this couldn’t set up much better for the Lions. They were 29th in pressuring the Quarterback and 30th in sacks in 2021. They have the 2nd overall pick and the consensus top two players on the board are edge rushers. I personally think they’d prefer Hutchinson and so if the Jags go offensive line expect him to be the pick but if the Jags take him, I still expect them to more than content with Thibodeaux.

 

3 – Houston Texans – Kyle Hamilton, Safety, Notre Dame

A safety? At third overall? I agree it feels a bad positional value… but this is not a great draft in terms of elite players at the top and Kyle Hamilton is one guy who does fit that mold. And then think about Houston’s General Manager. Nick Caserio comes from New England where they have valued safety play. They draft and then paid Devin McCourty handsomely and spent a second two years ago on Kyle Dugger when they had more obvious and immediate needs. Hamilton reminds me of Derwin James coming out. Yes he can play as a coverage eraser in center field but he can do so much more than that. This guy is a matchup monster who can do it all.

 

4 – New York Jets – Ikem Ekwonu, Offensive Tackle, North Carolina State

The Jets have thrown picks at their offensive line in recent years in Mekhi Becton and Alijah Vera-Tucker. Both were good as rookies but the idea in 2021 was to have them together holding down Zack Wilson’s blindside. Instead Becton played just one game, suffering a knee injury week one that was originally a 4 to 6 week deal, but kept him out the rest of the year. The noises from inside the franchise are not good. His work ethic has been questioned and his weight issues from college have returned which hampered the recovery. I can see the Jets trying again with Ekwonu who could play right tackle, or guard, if Becton does get it together but can take over at left tackle if he doesn’t.

 

5 – New York Giants – Evan Neal, Offensive Tackle, Alabama

Can anyone remember the last time the Giants’ offensive line didn’t suck? Nor me. Andrew Thomas had a solid sophomore season after struggling as a rookie at left tackle but the broken down body of Nate Solder was a turnstile on the right hand side. Anyone who has watched Brian Daboll’s offenses in Buffalo knows that his Quarterback is going to need the edges protecting and Daniel Jones, while athletic, is not Josh Allen in terms of being able to escape. Personally I am unconvinced by Neal as a left tackle prospect at the NFL level and that does put a ceiling on his value. But in this scenario as a right tackle he makes a lot of sense for the Giants.

 

6 – Carolina Panthers – Charles Cross, Offensive Tackle, Mississippi State

Carolina’s biggest need is obviously Quarterback. I suspect they are going to try again for Deshaun Watson depending on his status by March because Rhule needs to win in 2022 and trusting a rookie Quarterback would be scary. But after that it is offensive line. Here is a start for you and for @BillfromNYC in particular…. The Panthers have drafted THREE first round running backs since they last spent a first round pick on the offensive line (2003). That surely has to change because that unit is a liability. Cross is my #1 offensive tackle and I think he is a guy you plug and play for a decade on the blindside.

 

7 – New York Giants – Ahmad Gardner, Cornerback, Cincinnati

I hope nobody popped out for coffee in the Giants war room, ‘cos they are right back on the clock! As of the time of writing Brian Daboll has not hired a defensive coordinator but the name I have heard multiple times is Wink Martindale. The Giants have a need at corner and Wink values length and ability to play man coverage. Step forward Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner who is going to be higher on boards than most people would imagine.

 

8 – Atlanta Falcons – David Ojabo, EDGE, Michigan

This pick for the Falcons comes down to edge rusher or corner. They have major needs in both spots. I just think Ojabo is Defensive Coordinator Dean Pees’ type of edge rusher. Long, fast, bendy… has the physical attributes. His one year production is going to put some teams off and I think he is more a 3-4 OLB than a hand in the dirt defensive end but that is a perfect fit for what Atlanta runs.

 

9 – Denver Broncos – Kenny Pickett, Quarterback, Pittsburgh

Now this might all be moot if as some suspect Aaron Rodgers follows his former offensive coordinator Nate Hackett to Mile High. But the Broncos need somehow to find a Quarterback and so in a world where they haven’t landed Rodgers in a trade I have them reaching for Kenny Pickett who I think could run Hackett’s system effectively even if I don’t see the ceiling that you might want to compete in a division with Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert.

 

10 – New York Jets – Derek Stingley Jr, Cornerback, LSU

The Jets were playing overachieving late round picks in the secondary last year. Stingley has never quite scaled the heights of his freshman year again in 2020 or 2021 but if he lasts here until 10 the Jets would sprint to the podium. Huge upgrade.

 

11 – Washington Football Team – Matt Corral, Quarterback, Ole Miss

The Washington Football team always seems to find itself playing the Quarterback market in the wrong year. This is not a great group and this feels a reach for Corral who just plays a little bit robotic when I have watched him. Doesn’t look like a natural passer. But they have to do something here and I am not sure it is an attractive destination for any signal callers in the trade market.

 

12 – Minnesota Vikings – Andrew Booth, Cornerback, Clemson

Kwasi Adofo-Mensah is an intriguing hire as GM by the Vikings because he is from an analytics background rather than the traditional scouting background. While the Vikings have needs all over their defense the analytics in recent years lean towards spending capital on defensive backs rather than defensive linemen as the league because increasingly pass centric. Booth is actually my #1 corner in the draft but I wouldn’t be as high on him here if the Vikings were to hire a defensive coordinator who is going to be primarily a man coverage guy. Booth reminds me a ton of Tre White as a guy who can get physical and press but excels in zone.

 

13 – Cleveland Browns – George Karlaftis, EDGE, Purdue

The Browns big areas of need are defensive line and wide receiver. I thought about a receiver here but with the class having depth I wonder if they wait on that and instead bring in Karlaftis as a replacement for Jadaveon Clowney who had a very good year but the Browns likely can’t afford to keep. Skillset wise he is similar to Clowney. He is a bigger end who is going to set the set the edge and force plays towards Garrett while also notching clean up sacks when QBs are trying to escape the pocket his side.

 

14 – Baltimore Ravens – DeMarvin Leal, Defensive Tackle, Texas A&M

The Ravens defensive line is old. Calais Campbell is 35, Brandon Williams is 32 and Derek Wolfe is 31. They need to get younger up front. Leal would be a great start. There is a mix of views on his best positional fit among evaluators. Some see his best fit as a 3 tech in a 4 man front but I like him as a 5 tech defensive end in a 3-4 and I think he’d be a day 1 starter at that spot for the Ravens.

 

15 – Philadelphia Eagles – Tyler Linderbaum, Center, Iowa

This is one of the most popular mock draft picks in the early weeks of draft season, but it just makes so much sense. The Eagles future Hall of Fame center Jason Kelce is 34 and Linderbaum reminds me of him in the sense of being “undersized” compare to the prototype NFL center but a guy who is smart and moves well.

 

16 – Philadelphia Eagles – Devin Lloyd, Linebacker, Utah

The Eagles defensive scheme reminds me a lot of what Sean McDermott and Leslie Frazier have done with the Bills. As such I can see a long, athletic, rangy middle linebacker being attractive to Defensive Coordinator Jonathan Gannon and Lloyd fits the bill.

 

17 – Los Angeles Chargers – Kyler Gordon, Cornerback, Washington

Brandon Staley’s defense has to get better. Part of that has to be about improving the play in the secondary. To play in Staley’s scheme a corner needs to be comfortable in both man and zone (and last season’s second round pick Asante Samuel has struggled with zone concepts) which makes me think Kyler Gordon is the best fit of the second-tier corners.

 

18 – New Orleans Saints – Treylon Burks, Wide Receiver, Arkansas

Honestly the Saints have holes all over the place and likely need to create some more to get within the salary cap. But their biggest hole is at receiver. Their leading receiver in 2021 was Marcus Calloway with 698 yards and he struggles with drops. Michael Thomas’s future is up in the air so I think someone like Burks who can take short passes and make big gains would be attractive.

 

19 – Philadelphia Eagles – Cameron Thomas, EDGE, San Diego State

We know the MO of Eagles GM Howie Roseman. He builds the lines. I already have them going oline with one of their three first round picks in this draft and now I see them switching to defense. Derek Barnett is out of contract and has never quite justified his draft status, I don’t expect him to be brought back and Ryan Kerrigan (his backup) is a FA too. Cam Thomas has exceptional hands which reminds me a bit of Barnett coming out and I know Roseman values that in his rushers.

 

20 – Pittsburgh Steelers – Kenyon Green, Guard, Texas A&M

The Steelers number 1 need is clearly a Quarterback, but I just don’t see reaching on one as Kevin Colbert’s style, even though he is stepping down after the draft. Their offensive line has been a problem for a couple of seasons now. They drafted Dan Moore in the 4th round last year and have him penciled in to start at left tackle. I think Green would slot in very nicely alongside him.

 

21 – New England Patriots – Chris Olave, Wide Receiver, Ohio State

The Patriots have not got a great track record drafting wide receivers early in the draft. Part of that is that their offense (similar to Buffalo’s) asks the receivers to read the coverage almost as much as the Quarterback. But they just have to get more explosive on offense. Chris Olave is the smoothest route runner in this class and if, as some suspect, he runs a 4.3 he is in play to go earlier than this. But if he is there at #21 the Patriots should make sure he falls no further. He doesn’t need a Quarterback with a big arm to throw a deep ball. Olave can catch a 5 yard pass and take it the distance.

 

22 – Las Vegas Raiders – Trevor Penning, Offensive Tackle, Northern Iowa

The Raiders offensive line was a hot mess in 2021. Kolton Miller at left tackle was a Gruden and Mayock pick and they were determined, despite all the evidence, to force it to work – a new regime might well move on. As for Alex Leatherwood who they drafted in the first round (and reached for) last year… he failed at tackle and is now playing guard (where I always thought his NFL future lay). Trevor Penning might finally give them their answer at left tackle. He is raw but he is a monster and his ceiling is sky high.

 

23 – Arizona Cardinals – Jordan Davis, Defensive Tackle, Georgia

The big man comes off the board! The Cardinals had a big free agency swing at a big man who could penetrate up front when they signed Jordan Phillips from the Buffalo Bills before the 2020 season. He has logged just 5 sacks in two seasons and their starting nose tackle Corey Peters is a 33-year-old free agent too. Davis brings a nice mix of the two skill sets.  

 

24 – Dallas Cowboys – Nakobe Dean, Linebacker, Georgia

Back to back Bulldogs! This projection is all about Dan Quinn’s decision to stay with Dallas as Defensive Coordinator. Leighton Vander Esch is a free agent and is not a priority to retain. Micah Parsons is defensive rookie of the year, but is as much an edge rusher as a linebacker… and Nakobe Dean reminds me so much of Deion Jones coming out of LSU who excelled in Quinn’s defense with the Falcons.

 

25 – Buffalo Bills – Jameson Williams, Wide Receiver, Alabama

If Williams had not suffered an ACL tear in the National Championship game then I suspect there was very little chance of him dropping to this spot. The Bills more than most teams could afford to wait if Williams is not ready to contribute week 1. He was clocked in the 4.3s before his injury this season. If the Bills are confident he will retain that game breaking speed he would be a steal here.

 

26 – Tennessee Titans – Trey McBride, Tight End, Colorado

Hard to know where to go for the Titans. They don’t have a ton of needs, but they also don’t have a 2nd round pick having traded it to the Falcons for Julio Jones. Offensive line is possible, linebacker is a need but the two first round talents are off the board, so I wonder if they might be interested in McBride as a replacement for Jonnu Smith who departed for New England last spring. A two way tight end that can block and be an option in the passing game would help this offense.

 

27 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Travon Walker, Defensive Tackle, Georgia

Given recent news a Quarterback is a possibility here. I wonder if Bruce Arians might be attracted to Malik Willis the big armed kid out of Liberty and getting back to more of his traditional Air Coryell routes rather than Brady’s dink and dunk. However, they need to continue the youth movement up front too. Joe Tryon played well in spot duty as a rookie on the edge but William Gholston is a free agent at the 3-4 defensive end spot and Walker is a similar physical profile and could slide into that role.

 

28 – Green Bay Packers – Drake London, Wide Receiver, USC

I feel like the Packers do not want to pick a receiver in the 1st round while Rodgers is there – just out of pure belligerence. But if Davonte Adams walks as a free agent then they might have no other option. Drake London is a prototypical #1 outside receiver and whether it is Rodgers, Jordan Love or someone else throwing the ball if it is within his radius he is going to come down with it.

 

29 – Miami Dolphins – Garrett Wilson, Wide Receiver, Ohio State

Stop me if you have heard this before… but Miami needs receivers and offensive linemen, despite a lot of investment in both spots in recent years. Jaylon Waddle was a major hit as a rookie but Will Fuller as a one year rental did not work out, Preston Williams can’t stay healthy and Devante Parker is a possible cap casualty. With Tua as your Quarterback you need YAC guys and so Garrett Wilson out of Ohio State feels like a fit.

 

30 – Cincinnati Bengals – Nicholas Petit-Frere, Offensive Tackle, Ohio State

I will say it until I am blue in the face but Cincinnati has to get better up front. I’d have drafted Penei Sewell at #5 last year and he was a beast down the stretch for the Lions, but Chase was likely the rookie of the year so you can’t blame them for going that route. The problem is they have won too many games to be in range for one of the premium tackles in this class. That said Petit-Frere is a nice prospect and I think he is a natural left tackle so would likely represent an upgrade on Jonah Williams who you either flip to right tackle or slide inside to guard where Quinton Spain (their best lineman in 2021) is a free agent.

 

31 – Detroit Lions – Jaquan Brisker, Safety, Penn State

This is a spot where the Lions could absolutely take a swing at a Quarterback. If they do I’d look for a toolsy developmental guy either Willis or Desmond Ridder to come and sit for a year behind Jared Goff. However, because none of this class really pops to me and because Goff played well down the stretch (70% completion, 11 TDs and 2 INTs in his final 5 games) I have them going in a different direction. Their secondary has been a problem for a number of years under consecutive coaching staffs and their safety play in particular was atrocious in 2021. Jaquan Brisker and Jordan Battle are the second tier of safeties in this class, but I think Brisker is the superior coverage player and so I have gone with him here.

 

32 – Kansas City Chiefs – Roger McCreary, Corner, Auburn

My views on Kansas City’s corner situation is well known. L’Jarius Sneed is their best corner but he is a nickel guy primarily and they need better play on the boundary. There are three guys on the board who could come under consideration in this spot if a corner is the selection: McCreary, Trent McDuffie and Kaiir Elam but I think McCreary is the best man coverage guy of those three and in Spagnuolo’s scheme he wants to be able to bring the house and have his corners hold up outside.

 

 

Flame away!

For me Jameson Williams would be a dream pick.   I honestly believe to go along with Diggs, Davis, Beasley and Knox would complete the receiving corps.  Jameson would be our X factor and it’s possible he could replace the role that McKenzie played with the Bills.

 

That over the top threat would open up more passing plays as safeties would have to always keep tabs of what Jameson would be doing.   
 

I strongly am pulling for a playmaking WR with the first pick.  I believe there will be some to be had.

 

If Jameson is still available at around the 20-22 pick the Bills should consider trading up a few picks to secure him.   I believe Jameson could end up making the Bills the most potent offense in the league.   
 

And with either the 2nd or 3rd pick the Bills should look to draft a shifty, speedy receiving RB.  Not a cowbell type but a receiving and change of pace specialist.

 

And to complete my offensive wishlist, the Bills should look to get either via FA or draft a decent receiving threat who can block at a high level.   Those aren’t easy to come by but the 12 formation I think could be a really potent one if we can have that 2nd TE at least be a decent threat on the receiving end.

 

Invest in the offense more so than the defense.    

[whorlnut]

1 minute ago, chongli said:

 

Sure, he was a good player, but he was projected to go late 3rd round in the draft. I think the Bills overdrafted him.

Let me ask you something…where would he have gone if he hadn’t hurt his knee?

[chongli]

1 minute ago, whorlnut said:

Let me ask you something…where would he have gone if he hadn’t hurt his knee?

 

Maybe top 5? But many panned the Bills for taking him so early. I just think it was a huge gamble. He would have still been there in the 2nd.

Edited January 30, 2022 by chongli

[whorlnut]

Just now, chongli said:

 

Maybe top 5? But many panned the Bills for taking him so early.

Then you have your answer…the bills took a chance on him in the 20’s and got a steal. Happens all the time with injured players. 

[Floydboy12]

I do think there are going to be some good receivers available where we draft. CB doesn’t look to be great value in RD 1. Personally I’m ready to move on from Edmunds, so I’m hoping Lloyd or Dean are still there when we pick in Rd 1. Then grab a guy like Wandale Robinson in Rd 2 to replace Beasley in the slot. I know Beane is probably not going to do that. 

[buffaloboyinATL]

39 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

@GunnerBill, I'd be over the moon if the Bills were able to draft Jameson Williams. Immediate impact is what I'm looking for in this draft and he's it

Well, maybe not quite immediate, seeing as he just tore his ACL, but he would definitely be ready to make an impact in the second half of next season. That being said, getting him at pick 25 would be our best case scenario.   

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, Floydboy12 said:

I do think there are going to be some good receivers available where we draft. CB doesn’t look to be great value in RD 1. Personally I’m ready to move on from Edmunds, so I’m hoping Lloyd or Dean are still there when we pick in Rd 1. Then grab a guy like Wandale Robinson in Rd 2 to replace Beasley in the slot. I know Beane is probably not going to do that. 

 

I think there will be some good corners too. The second tier corners - the guys after Booth, Stingley and Gardner - represent less value though in my mind that a Williams or an Olave. The receivers are gonna be totally jumbled this year. It's more like 2019 when none went super early - think Hollywood Brown at 25 was the first off the board - but then 9 had gone by the end of round two and DK Metcalf who many had as WR1 went 9th of those 9. If the Bills had a top 15 pick and any of those three corners fell to them I'd be all in on taking them. I just don't see any of them getting to #25 sadly.

 

Part of the reason I did this a little earlier than I normally would is that I wanted to see what options might fall for the Bills at #25. I should be clear I never start this process trying to get a player to the Bills that I like. I always try and be really objective about what could happen in front of them to get an honest view of the way the board could realistically look when Beane goes on the clock. 

[NewEra]

Thanks GB.  Great content as always. 
 

We could only be so lucky as to land Williams.  He’s exactly what this offense needs.  Sign me up. He’s been my #1 hope since he tore his acl.  Prior to the injury, we had no chance.  

[SoCal Deek]

Gunner I’m curious why you took the kid from Alabama over WR Drake London from USC who was literally unstoppable before going down with an injury. You have London going ten minutes later. 

[OldTimer1960]

If they can grab Jameson Williams - even if he were to miss much of the upcoming season- that would be worth it, in my opinion (of course assuming that he will eventually make a full recovery).

[NewEra]

23 minutes ago, chongli said:

 

Maybe top 5? But many panned the Bills for taking him so early. I just think it was a huge gamble. He would have still been there in the 2nd.

Your crystal ball skills must be HoF worthy

[buffaloboyinATL]

Great job as always @GunnerBill  I would be amazed if the first QB off of the board went at pick 9, because their values always get over inflated heading into the draft, but that value seems about right to me. 
 

I would love to see the Lions get Hutchison, but agree that he is the right pick at #1.

 

I would love to see Williams drop to us at 25, but could easily see someone like the Raiders taking a shot before us, even though they have more pressing needs, like OL as you mentioned.  
 

Thanks for the great work and I look forward to seeing this evolve as the draft process heats up.  Go Bills!

[MrEpsYtown]

Awesome work man. Williams works for me. We are in a great place to just sit and see who falls, a great value spot. But an injured top ten talent works for me.

 

The people complaining about Williams are the same people who will be crying when the Pats take him at 21. 

[whorlnut]

Just now, MrEpsYtown said:

Awesome work man. Williams works for me. We are in a great place to just sit and see who falls, a great value spot. But an injured top ten talent works for me.

 

The people complaining about Williams are the same people who will be crying when the Pats take him at 21. 

Great point. I swear this board is divided by offense and defense. The same people that would complain are probably the same people that were pushing for Caleb Farley if he was available at 30 last year. 
 

Jameson Williams is gonna be a really good WR in this league. Not only does he have elite speed, but he also has some size to go along with that speed. Getting a top 10 pick at 25 would be a coup for this offense. 

[Florida Bills Fanatic]

WR talent appears to be pretty deep in this draft.  I wouldn't be surprised to see Beane wait on a WR and go CB or DL.  In the last couple of years, the free agent signings have provided a pretty clear road map for Beane's draft plans.  Have any of us really been surprised by any of his first picks in the draft?

 

When you look at the roster and project who will be retained going into the draft, the Bills don't have any glaring holes except punter.  There are some areas that can be improved but no catastrophic absence of talent.  This gives Beane the flexibility to look at the best players at the best value regardless of position.  He can also gamble on a great prospect coming off an injury. GunnerBill may very well have it correct.  It all depends on whether 24 other teams let Williams fall that far in the draft.

[CNYfan]

By GB's projections the top CBs are gone well before we draft.

I haven't started my research yet.

[T master]

Sorry but i disagree with this pick that position is 1 of strength and there are others that need a lot more than that one i hope they don't go that route !! 

[Thurman#1]

41 minutes ago, whorlnut said:

Let me ask you something…where would he have gone if he hadn’t hurt his knee?

 

 

Fair enough question, but here's another ... would he have been better if he hadn't hurt his knee? Was he ever as electric in the pros as he was at Miami?

 

Here's a Miami highlight reel. Does any of those plays look familiar from his time in Buffalo or the rest of the league?

 

 

 

 

That was an awful pick for the Bills, awful, especially as they already had Travis Henry.

 

I would support the Jameson pick if the doctors are OK with it, but that McGahee pick was bad.

[GunnerBill]

39 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Gunner I’m curious why you took the kid from Alabama over WR Drake London from USC who was literally unstoppable before going down with an injury. You have London going ten minutes later. 

 

Fair question. I think I'd say two things:

 

1 - to repeat what I said above I think people will be all over the map on ranking these receivers. I imagine if you asked 10 teams for their top 10 WRs you would get 10 very different lists. I expect there will be teams for whom London is the WR1 (I know my guy Matt Miller has him as his WR1) and there will be others where he is WR4 or 5. 

 

2 - specifically for the Bills it comes down to what I imagine they would covet most which is gamebreaking speed. London is by no means slow. He will run mid 4.4s but the Bills would, I imagine, want some 4.3 speed if they can get it. 

 

[whorlnut]

7 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Fair enough question, but here's another ... would he have been better if he hadn't hurt his knee? Was he ever as electric in the pros as he was at Miami?

 

Here's a Miami highlight reel. Does any of those plays look familiar from his time in Buffalo or the rest of the league?

 

 

 

 

That was an awful pick for the Bills, awful, especially as they already had Travis Henry.

 

I would support the Jameson pick if the doctors are OK with it, but that McGahee pick was bad.

That’s fair…but let’s put aside the fact that we didn’t need mcgahee. The point I was making is that there have been several top prospects that fell in recent years due to injury. The teams that drafted them made out like bandits. 

[SoCal Deek]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

Fair question. I think I'd say two things:

 

1 - to repeat what I said above I think people will be all over the map on ranking these receivers. I imagine if you asked 10 teams for their top 10 WRs you would get 10 very different lists. I expect there will be teams for whom London is the WR1 (I know my guy Matt Miller has him as his WR1) and there will be others where he is WR4 or 5. 

 

2 - specifically for the Bills it comes down to what I imagine they would covet most which is gamebreaking speed. London is by no means slow. He will run mid 4.4s but the Bills would, I imagine, want some 4.3 speed if they can get it. 

 

Thanks...I figured that was your decider. I'm not actually lobbying for London or any WR for that matter. I actually believe the Bills have more pressing needs up the middle of the field where most games are won and lost (OG, C, MLB, NT). I find it hard to believe that Beane couldn't pluck a WR in free agency who would love to break out by coming and playing with Josh Allen.

[filthymcnasty08]

13 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Fair enough question, but here's another ... would he have been better if he hadn't hurt his knee? Was he ever as electric in the pros as he was at Miami?

 

Here's a Miami highlight reel. Does any of those plays look familiar from his time in Buffalo or the rest of the league?

 

 

 

 

That was an awful pick for the Bills, awful, especially as they already had Travis Henry.

 

I would support the Jameson pick if the doctors are OK with it, but that McGahee pick was bad.

This marked the beginning of the dark days of the front office - goes back to losing Butler, then letting A.J. Smith walk and, of course, Wade. 

 

 

 

 

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

CB, offensive or defensive line is where I see McBeane going… I’d be shocked if they went WR honestly.

 

I certainly think corner and OL are in play. If the board fell like that though I honestly wouldn't love the options at either of those spots. Think receiver is the best match of value and need.

[Real McClappy]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

The pain of last weekend slowly gives way to the realisation that we are firmly in draft season and so here is my first stab at a 2022 mock draft. There are more unknowns than normal by this time of year because we still have the Championship games to go (because the season is a week longer) and because we still have SIX unfilled head coaching jobs. So there is a fair amount of speculation that has had to go into this coupled with the fact that I already think this is one of the least predictable first rounds in years. Firstly, there are lot of picks that already belong to teams other than those to who they originally belong (Giants, Lions and Jets have two picks each, the Eagles have 3 and the Dolphins have one but it isn't their own) and secondly, there are not many players genuinely separating themselves at the very top of this class and are a LOT of players who, frankly, could go anywhere from about 8th overall to about 48th overall. Scheme fits, positional value and need are going to play into this first round a lot more than a normal first round and I think the cliched "Best Player Available" will be an even more abstract concept this year than normal.

 

Last year when I did my first mock in early Feb I did a two round edition and I do plan to update this in February with a two round version once all the coaches are hired and things are somewhat more settled. But for now, here is an early stab at the first 32 picks of the 2022 NFL Draft. Enjoy reading!

 

1 - Jacksonville Jaguars – Aiden Hutchinson, EDGE, Michigan

When you pick 1st overall in consecutive seasons and spend the first of those on a Quarterback what you are really hoping is that there is a potential franchise Quarterback there the second year to allow you to move back and collect picks. However, unfortunately for the Jags, there isn’t. The choice comes down to reach for an offensive tackle – which is a need – or stay put and take the best player on the board. Until the Jags hire a coach and sort out the GM spot I am going to err on the side of them doing the latter.

 

2 – Detroit Lions – Kayvon Thibodeaux, EDGE, Oregan

In contrast this couldn’t set up much better for the Lions. They were 29th in pressuring the Quarterback and 30th in sacks in 2021. They have the 2nd overall pick and the consensus top two players on the board are edge rushers. I personally think they’d prefer Hutchinson and so if the Jags go offensive line expect him to be the pick but if the Jags take him, I still expect them to more than content with Thibodeaux.

 

3 – Houston Texans – Kyle Hamilton, Safety, Notre Dame

A safety? At third overall? I agree it feels a bad positional value… but this is not a great draft in terms of elite players at the top and Kyle Hamilton is one guy who does fit that mold. And then think about Houston’s General Manager. Nick Caserio comes from New England where they have valued safety play. They draft and then paid Devin McCourty handsomely and spent a second two years ago on Kyle Dugger when they had more obvious and immediate needs. Hamilton reminds me of Derwin James coming out. Yes he can play as a coverage eraser in center field but he can do so much more than that. This guy is a matchup monster who can do it all.

 

4 – New York Jets – Ikem Ekwonu, Offensive Tackle, North Carolina State

The Jets have thrown picks at their offensive line in recent years in Mekhi Becton and Alijah Vera-Tucker. Both were good as rookies but the idea in 2021 was to have them together holding down Zack Wilson’s blindside. Instead Becton played just one game, suffering a knee injury week one that was originally a 4 to 6 week deal, but kept him out the rest of the year. The noises from inside the franchise are not good. His work ethic has been questioned and his weight issues from college have returned which hampered the recovery. I can see the Jets trying again with Ekwonu who could play right tackle, or guard, if Becton does get it together but can take over at left tackle if he doesn’t.

 

5 – New York Giants – Evan Neal, Offensive Tackle, Alabama

Can anyone remember the last time the Giants’ offensive line didn’t suck? Nor me. Andrew Thomas had a solid sophomore season after struggling as a rookie at left tackle but the broken down body of Nate Solder was a turnstile on the right hand side. Anyone who has watched Brian Daboll’s offenses in Buffalo knows that his Quarterback is going to need the edges protecting and Daniel Jones, while athletic, is not Josh Allen in terms of being able to escape. Personally I am unconvinced by Neal as a left tackle prospect at the NFL level and that does put a ceiling on his value. But in this scenario as a right tackle he makes a lot of sense for the Giants.

 

6 – Carolina Panthers – Charles Cross, Offensive Tackle, Mississippi State

Carolina’s biggest need is obviously Quarterback. I suspect they are going to try again for Deshaun Watson depending on his status by March because Rhule needs to win in 2022 and trusting a rookie Quarterback would be scary. But after that it is offensive line. Here is a start for you and for @BillfromNYC in particular…. The Panthers have drafted THREE first round running backs since they last spent a first round pick on the offensive line (2003). That surely has to change because that unit is a liability. Cross is my #1 offensive tackle and I think he is a guy you plug and play for a decade on the blindside.

 

7 – New York Giants – Ahmad Gardner, Cornerback, Cincinnati

I hope nobody popped out for coffee in the Giants war room, ‘cos they are right back on the clock! As of the time of writing Brian Daboll has not hired a defensive coordinator but the name I have heard multiple times is Wink Martindale. The Giants have a need at corner and Wink values length and ability to play man coverage. Step forward Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner who is going to be higher on boards than most people would imagine.

 

8 – Atlanta Falcons – David Ojabo, EDGE, Michigan

This pick for the Falcons comes down to edge rusher or corner. They have major needs in both spots. I just think Ojabo is Defensive Coordinator Dean Pees’ type of edge rusher. Long, fast, bendy… has the physical attributes. His one year production is going to put some teams off and I think he is more a 3-4 OLB than a hand in the dirt defensive end but that is a perfect fit for what Atlanta runs.

 

9 – Denver Broncos – Kenny Pickett, Quarterback, Pittsburgh

Now this might all be moot if as some suspect Aaron Rodgers follows his former offensive coordinator Nate Hackett to Mile High. But the Broncos need somehow to find a Quarterback and so in a world where they haven’t landed Rodgers in a trade I have them reaching for Kenny Pickett who I think could run Hackett’s system effectively even if I don’t see the ceiling that you might want to compete in a division with Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert.

 

10 – New York Jets – Derek Stingley Jr, Cornerback, LSU

The Jets were playing overachieving late round picks in the secondary last year. Stingley has never quite scaled the heights of his freshman year again in 2020 or 2021 but if he lasts here until 10 the Jets would sprint to the podium. Huge upgrade.

 

11 – Washington Football Team – Matt Corral, Quarterback, Ole Miss

The Washington Football team always seems to find itself playing the Quarterback market in the wrong year. This is not a great group and this feels a reach for Corral who just plays a little bit robotic when I have watched him. Doesn’t look like a natural passer. But they have to do something here and I am not sure it is an attractive destination for any signal callers in the trade market.

 

12 – Minnesota Vikings – Andrew Booth, Cornerback, Clemson

Kwasi Adofo-Mensah is an intriguing hire as GM by the Vikings because he is from an analytics background rather than the traditional scouting background. While the Vikings have needs all over their defense the analytics in recent years lean towards spending capital on defensive backs rather than defensive linemen as the league because increasingly pass centric. Booth is actually my #1 corner in the draft but I wouldn’t be as high on him here if the Vikings were to hire a defensive coordinator who is going to be primarily a man coverage guy. Booth reminds me a ton of Tre White as a guy who can get physical and press but excels in zone.

 

13 – Cleveland Browns – George Karlaftis, EDGE, Purdue

The Browns big areas of need are defensive line and wide receiver. I thought about a receiver here but with the class having depth I wonder if they wait on that and instead bring in Karlaftis as a replacement for Jadaveon Clowney who had a very good year but the Browns likely can’t afford to keep. Skillset wise he is similar to Clowney. He is a bigger end who is going to set the set the edge and force plays towards Garrett while also notching clean up sacks when QBs are trying to escape the pocket his side.

 

14 – Baltimore Ravens – DeMarvin Leal, Defensive Tackle, Texas A&M

The Ravens defensive line is old. Calais Campbell is 35, Brandon Williams is 32 and Derek Wolfe is 31. They need to get younger up front. Leal would be a great start. There is a mix of views on his best positional fit among evaluators. Some see his best fit as a 3 tech in a 4 man front but I like him as a 5 tech defensive end in a 3-4 and I think he’d be a day 1 starter at that spot for the Ravens.

 

15 – Philadelphia Eagles – Tyler Linderbaum, Center, Iowa

This is one of the most popular mock draft picks in the early weeks of draft season, but it just makes so much sense. The Eagles future Hall of Fame center Jason Kelce is 34 and Linderbaum reminds me of him in the sense of being “undersized” compare to the prototype NFL center but a guy who is smart and moves well.

 

16 – Philadelphia Eagles – Devin Lloyd, Linebacker, Utah

The Eagles defensive scheme reminds me a lot of what Sean McDermott and Leslie Frazier have done with the Bills. As such I can see a long, athletic, rangy middle linebacker being attractive to Defensive Coordinator Jonathan Gannon and Lloyd fits the bill.

 

17 – Los Angeles Chargers – Kyler Gordon, Cornerback, Washington

Brandon Staley’s defense has to get better. Part of that has to be about improving the play in the secondary. To play in Staley’s scheme a corner needs to be comfortable in both man and zone (and last season’s second round pick Asante Samuel has struggled with zone concepts) which makes me think Kyler Gordon is the best fit of the second-tier corners.

 

18 – New Orleans Saints – Treylon Burks, Wide Receiver, Arkansas

Honestly the Saints have holes all over the place and likely need to create some more to get within the salary cap. But their biggest hole is at receiver. Their leading receiver in 2021 was Marcus Calloway with 698 yards and he struggles with drops. Michael Thomas’s future is up in the air so I think someone like Burks who can take short passes and make big gains would be attractive.

 

19 – Philadelphia Eagles – Cameron Thomas, EDGE, San Diego State

We know the MO of Eagles GM Howie Roseman. He builds the lines. I already have them going oline with one of their three first round picks in this draft and now I see them switching to defense. Derek Barnett is out of contract and has never quite justified his draft status, I don’t expect him to be brought back and Ryan Kerrigan (his backup) is a FA too. Cam Thomas has exceptional hands which reminds me a bit of Barnett coming out and I know Roseman values that in his rushers.

 

20 – Pittsburgh Steelers – Kenyon Green, Guard, Texas A&M

The Steelers number 1 need is clearly a Quarterback, but I just don’t see reaching on one as Kevin Colbert’s style, even though he is stepping down after the draft. Their offensive line has been a problem for a couple of seasons now. They drafted Dan Moore in the 4th round last year and have him penciled in to start at left tackle. I think Green would slot in very nicely alongside him.

 

21 – New England Patriots – Chris Olave, Wide Receiver, Ohio State

The Patriots have not got a great track record drafting wide receivers early in the draft. Part of that is that their offense (similar to Buffalo’s) asks the receivers to read the coverage almost as much as the Quarterback. But they just have to get more explosive on offense. Chris Olave is the smoothest route runner in this class and if, as some suspect, he runs a 4.3 he is in play to go earlier than this. But if he is there at #21 the Patriots should make sure he falls no further. He doesn’t need a Quarterback with a big arm to throw a deep ball. Olave can catch a 5 yard pass and take it the distance.

 

22 – Las Vegas Raiders – Trevor Penning, Offensive Tackle, Northern Iowa

The Raiders offensive line was a hot mess in 2021. Kolton Miller at left tackle was a Gruden and Mayock pick and they were determined, despite all the evidence, to force it to work – a new regime might well move on. As for Alex Leatherwood who they drafted in the first round (and reached for) last year… he failed at tackle and is now playing guard (where I always thought his NFL future lay). Trevor Penning might finally give them their answer at left tackle. He is raw but he is a monster and his ceiling is sky high.

 

23 – Arizona Cardinals – Jordan Davis, Defensive Tackle, Georgia

The big man comes off the board! The Cardinals had a big free agency swing at a big man who could penetrate up front when they signed Jordan Phillips from the Buffalo Bills before the 2020 season. He has logged just 5 sacks in two seasons and their starting nose tackle Corey Peters is a 33-year-old free agent too. Davis brings a nice mix of the two skill sets.  

 

24 – Dallas Cowboys – Nakobe Dean, Linebacker, Georgia

Back to back Bulldogs! This projection is all about Dan Quinn’s decision to stay with Dallas as Defensive Coordinator. Leighton Vander Esch is a free agent and is not a priority to retain. Micah Parsons is defensive rookie of the year, but is as much an edge rusher as a linebacker… and Nakobe Dean reminds me so much of Deion Jones coming out of LSU who excelled in Quinn’s defense with the Falcons.

 

25 – Buffalo Bills – Jameson Williams, Wide Receiver, Alabama

If Williams had not suffered an ACL tear in the National Championship game then I suspect there was very little chance of him dropping to this spot. The Bills more than most teams could afford to wait if Williams is not ready to contribute week 1. He was clocked in the 4.3s before his injury this season. If the Bills are confident he will retain that game breaking speed he would be a steal here.

 

26 – Tennessee Titans – Trey McBride, Tight End, Colorado

Hard to know where to go for the Titans. They don’t have a ton of needs, but they also don’t have a 2nd round pick having traded it to the Falcons for Julio Jones. Offensive line is possible, linebacker is a need but the two first round talents are off the board, so I wonder if they might be interested in McBride as a replacement for Jonnu Smith who departed for New England last spring. A two way tight end that can block and be an option in the passing game would help this offense.

 

27 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Travon Walker, Defensive Tackle, Georgia

Given recent news a Quarterback is a possibility here. I wonder if Bruce Arians might be attracted to Malik Willis the big armed kid out of Liberty and getting back to more of his traditional Air Coryell routes rather than Brady’s dink and dunk. However, they need to continue the youth movement up front too. Joe Tryon played well in spot duty as a rookie on the edge but William Gholston is a free agent at the 3-4 defensive end spot and Walker is a similar physical profile and could slide into that role.

 

28 – Green Bay Packers – Drake London, Wide Receiver, USC

I feel like the Packers do not want to pick a receiver in the 1st round while Rodgers is there – just out of pure belligerence. But if Davonte Adams walks as a free agent then they might have no other option. Drake London is a prototypical #1 outside receiver and whether it is Rodgers, Jordan Love or someone else throwing the ball if it is within his radius he is going to come down with it.

 

29 – Miami Dolphins – Garrett Wilson, Wide Receiver, Ohio State

Stop me if you have heard this before… but Miami needs receivers and offensive linemen, despite a lot of investment in both spots in recent years. Jaylon Waddle was a major hit as a rookie but Will Fuller as a one year rental did not work out, Preston Williams can’t stay healthy and Devante Parker is a possible cap casualty. With Tua as your Quarterback you need YAC guys and so Garrett Wilson out of Ohio State feels like a fit.

 

30 – Cincinnati Bengals – Nicholas Petit-Frere, Offensive Tackle, Ohio State

I will say it until I am blue in the face but Cincinnati has to get better up front. I’d have drafted Penei Sewell at #5 last year and he was a beast down the stretch for the Lions, but Chase was likely the rookie of the year so you can’t blame them for going that route. The problem is they have won too many games to be in range for one of the premium tackles in this class. That said Petit-Frere is a nice prospect and I think he is a natural left tackle so would likely represent an upgrade on Jonah Williams who you either flip to right tackle or slide inside to guard where Quinton Spain (their best lineman in 2021) is a free agent.

 

31 – Detroit Lions – Jaquan Brisker, Safety, Penn State

This is a spot where the Lions could absolutely take a swing at a Quarterback. If they do I’d look for a toolsy developmental guy either Willis or Desmond Ridder to come and sit for a year behind Jared Goff. However, because none of this class really pops to me and because Goff played well down the stretch (70% completion, 11 TDs and 2 INTs in his final 5 games) I have them going in a different direction. Their secondary has been a problem for a number of years under consecutive coaching staffs and their safety play in particular was atrocious in 2021. Jaquan Brisker and Jordan Battle are the second tier of safeties in this class, but I think Brisker is the superior coverage player and so I have gone with him here.

 

32 – Kansas City Chiefs – Roger McCreary, Corner, Auburn

My views on Kansas City’s corner situation is well known. L’Jarius Sneed is their best corner but he is a nickel guy primarily and they need better play on the boundary. There are three guys on the board who could come under consideration in this spot if a corner is the selection: McCreary, Trent McDuffie and Kaiir Elam but I think McCreary is the best man coverage guy of those three and in Spagnuolo’s scheme he wants to be able to bring the house and have his corners hold up outside.

 

 

Flame away!

This is pretty solid Gunner. Love the BIlls taking WR #1 honestly.

 

I'm hoping the #18 pick slides to us at #25 though. Williams is a stud if/when healthy but a gamble. Burks is a YAC animal that we really need badly, he also has great Size and vertical leap which is a huge RZ asset for JA17. 

 

 

Edited January 30, 2022 by Real McNasty

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, whorlnut said:

Then you have your answer…the bills took a chance on him in the 20’s and got a steal. Happens all the time with injured players. 

 

 

I'd strongly argue whether McGahee was a steal or even a good pick where selected. If you sit out your first year, you'd better perform sensationally when you play.

 

For those who don't remember, he averaged 3.8, 3.8 and 4.0 YPC his three years in Buffalo. After sitting for a year from that injury.

 

Yeah we did not have a good OL, particularly in the last two of those three years. But while he developed into a guy who could stand up to a lot of carries, he was never a guy teams game-planned for. If he'd been a 3rd rounder, he'd have been a really good value. As a first rounder, a good player but not worth the pick.

 

A career YPC of 4.0. A tough guy, not someone who struck fear in a lot of defensive hearts.

 

He was the 23rd pick in 2003. Here are all of the RBs who've been picked at #23 or higher:

 

2005 #2 Ronnie Brown

2005 #4 Cedric Benson

2005 #5 Cadillac Williams

2006 #2 Reggie Bush

2006 #21 Laurence Maroney

2007 #7 Adrian Peterson

2007 #12 Marshawn Lynch

2008 #4 Darren McFadden

2008 #13 Jonathan Stewart

2008 #22 Felix Jones

2008 #23 Rashard Mendenhall

2009 #12 Knowshon Moreno

2010 #9 C.J. Spiller

2010 #12 Ryan Mathews

2012 #3 Trent Richardson

2015 #10 Todd Gurley

2015 #15 Melvin Gordon

2016 #4 Ezekiel Elliott

2017 #4 Leonard Fournette

2017 #8 Christian McCaffrey

2018 #2 Saquon Barkley

 

And that's it. Nobody above #23 since 2018.

 

As a group, that is not a history of good drafting. A few really good ones, but that's not how it leans overall. And while McGahee would probably be above the midline of this group, that says more about how bad the group is than how good McGahee was.

 

That pick was Donahoe trying to show how smart he was, and failing.

 

 

 

Edited January 30, 2022 by Thurman#1