Big Turk Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 (edited) Penalties cost the Bills a negative 120%ish win percentage...Colts were helped by penalties the most in the NFL with an unbelievable +224% win percentage boost and STILL missed the playoffs... Edited January 14, 2022 by Big Turk 1 1 2 1 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsbackto81 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 (edited) Beat me to it. Saw this on the Pats board. Conspiracy theories are gonna fly😂 Bills get hammered more than any other team as far as "game changing" calls are concerned and it's not even close. As some mentioned a lot of teams that have gotten shafted are still in the playoffs and it goes to show that quality rosters can overcome bad officiating. If true, judging by this 📊 the Bills should win the Super Bowl 🏆 Edited January 14, 2022 by billsbackto81 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 (edited) 4 minutes ago, billsbackto81 said: Beat me to it. Saw this on the Pats board. Conspiracy theories are gonna fly😂 Bills get hammered more than any other team as far as "game changing" calls are concerned and it's not even close. As some mentioned a lot of teams that have gotten shafted are still in the playoffs and it goes to show that quality rosters can overcome bad officiating. If true, judging by this 📊 the Bills should win the Super Bowl 🏆 Basically the Bills take penalties at the worst times, can't even count how many TDs were called back due to this Edited January 14, 2022 by Big Turk 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Finally, the proof we've all been waiting for... 2 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaos Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Here me out. Is it possible the Bills actually commit penalties at the worst possible time? 1 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJS Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 hour ago, Big Turk said: Penalties cost the Bills a negative 120%ish win percentage...Colts were helped by penalties the most in the NFL with an unbelievable +224% win percentage boost and STILL missed the playoffs... It would be interesting to see the average over the last 5 years. Also, I find it interesting that there are a lot more playoff teams in the negative versus the positive on this scale. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1ManRaid Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 17 minutes ago, Chaos said: Here me out. Is it possible the Bills actually commit penalties at the worst possible time? That much more than other teams? No. Did you even watch the Bucs game? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cDAVIS Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 The Tre interception vs the Steelers that got called back ahd to have accounted for 35% for the Steelers and against the bills 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaBillsJunkie Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 hour ago, Chaos said: Here me out. Is it possible the Bills actually commit penalties at the worst possible time? Or do the refs flag them at the worst possible time? I stopped counting how often replays showed phantom calls that were not definitive of a Bills penalty or very close but not called even for both teams during a game. Hence, the PI calls that went against us while Diggs was getting raped on his routes and nothing was called. 1 hour ago, MJS said: Also, I find it interesting that there are a lot more playoff teams in the negative versus the positive on this scale. That kind of goes into my conspiracy theory of better teams getting flagged to keep the games closer, keep them within the spread, or over/unders, etc... They want to keep as many games competitive as possible. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CEN-CAL17 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 It being the playoffs the refs should be holding on to their flags a little more unless it’s blatant. Anyone know who the crew is for tomorrow? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coastie Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 16 minutes ago, CEN-CAL17 said: It being the playoffs the refs should be holding on to their flags a little more unless it’s blatant. Anyone know who the crew is for tomorrow? There was a thread with the referee but wouldn't be his regular crew for the season. If i recall be was pretty conservative in penalties. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralonzo Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 You’re surprised? 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RiotAct Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, Ralonzo said: You’re surprised? “I hope the Smoking Man’s in this one!” 21 minutes ago, CEN-CAL17 said: It being the playoffs the refs should be holding on to their flags a little more unless it’s blatant. Anyone know who the crew is for tomorrow? 3 minutes ago, Coastie said: There was a thread with the referee but wouldn't be his regular crew for the season. If i recall be was pretty conservative in penalties. Correct. Brad Allen is the ref - apparently his crew in the regular season were right around the league average in #of flags thrown per game (11.5ish). Tend to be a little more lenient with offensive holding, and a little more flag-happy when it comes to DPI, but nothing crazy. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ehfeuh57 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 I dont know if this was done by a Bills fan but I have been waiting for someone to show the stats we all knew for some time. I never felt like putting in the work for free. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsbackto81 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 4 hours ago, Chaos said: Here me out. Is it possible the Bills actually commit penalties at the worst possible time? You're right! All teams that are generally proficient on Defense (especially a #1 ranked defense) are also so undisciplined. C'mon man! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Livinginthepast Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 The Bills are either the dirtiest cheats or the most inept and undisciplined team ever. Or they are neither and are the most unfairly picked on/disrespected team by the NFL's officials. Or maybe all of the above, some of the above?! In any case the Bills have always been a team that have had to overcome their opponents AND the refs with their inevitably bad decisions. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeGOATski Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just don't give us another Houston-type game. That was the absolute worst. The NFL loves the Pats in a similar way. Just get TV ratings, baby. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nextmanup Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Bills worst in league, Colts best in league. What does this say about McDermott vs. Reich, if anything? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freddie's Dead Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 (edited) *****in' A Bubba! We all knew the Bills were taking it dry from the refs. 14 hours ago, Ralonzo said: You’re surprised? When the Bills win the SB, you'll see an obit notice for William B. Davis.... Edited January 15, 2022 by Freddie's Dead Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEra Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Crazy that 7 of the bottom 9 are in the playoffs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freddie's Dead Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 17 hours ago, Chaos said: Here me out. Is it possible the Bills actually commit penalties at the worst possible time? You lost me at "Here". 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 17 hours ago, 1ManRaid said: That much more than other teams? No. Did you even watch the Bucs game? The Bills DID commit bad penalties in the Buccs game. The issue was the Buccs committed one at the worst possible time and it was not called. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 7 minutes ago, Nextmanup said: Bills worst in league, Colts best in league. What does this say about McDermott vs. Reich, if anything? That even with officiating against the Bills, McD could get his team to the playoffs? 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nextmanup Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, Freddie's Dead said: You lost me at "Here". I thought that was part of the joke. It was like a joke inside a joke. Firs tip off is "Hear me out" and then the 3rd grade spelling error.... Maybe he was being serious? 😬 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freddie's Dead Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 16 hours ago, cDAVIS said: The Tre interception vs the Steelers that got called back ahd to have accounted for 35% for the Steelers and against the bills Bad example, that was a good call. Just now, Nextmanup said: I thought that was part of the joke. It was like a joke inside a joke. Firs tip off is "Hear me out" and then the 3rd grade spelling error.... Maybe he was being serious? 😬 That is some next-level ***** right there.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, Nextmanup said: I thought that was part of the joke. It was like a joke inside a joke. Firs tip off is "Hear me out" and then the 3rd grade spelling error.... Maybe he was being serious? 😬 See him out is more like it... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 How do they calculate "win probability"? WFT is a top 3 in this category, yet they won 7 games. Giants won 4. Of the top 5 teams "aided" by penalty calls, only one team won 10 games and a division. Whereas the 9 teams most adversely affected include 6 teams that won at least 10 games and 5 division winners. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigduke6 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 i like charts, any fan who watched every play of this Bills season knows that we've been job'd a ton by the refs this year. the inconsistency has been all time terrible, and thats my worst fear for the playoffs. if we lose fair and square i have zero issues. if we lose due to "human" ref error......imma be po'd. ive about had it with the inconsistency and game changing calls/non calls on a weekly basis from this league. Go Bills!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78thealltimegreat Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 17 hours ago, 1ManRaid said: That much more than other teams? No. Did you even watch the Bucs game? This is a penalty for every team not named the Buffalo bills 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted January 15, 2022 Author Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 hours ago, Nextmanup said: Bills worst in league, Colts best in league. What does this say about McDermott vs. Reich, if anything? That the Colts quarterbacking situation was dreadful and they tried to hide him all year with a strong running game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 hour ago, 78thealltimegreat said: This is a penalty for every team not named the Buffalo bills SMH. Practically ripping off Diggs’ jersey and the ref looking right at it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted January 15, 2022 Author Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said: How do they calculate "win probability"? WFT is a top 3 in this category, yet they won 7 games. Giants won 4. Of the top 5 teams "aided" by penalty calls, only one team won 10 games and a division. Whereas the 9 teams most adversely affected include 6 teams that won at least 10 games and 5 division winners. Not sure...likely it involves yardage lost on plays that were called back, TD lost on plays that are called back, adverse plays on defense when you get a penalty that converts a 3rd down for the offense, etc. Here is an in depth explanation... https://www.pro-football-reference.com/about/win_prob.htm 1 minute ago, Doc said: SMH. Practically ripping off Diggs’ jersey and the ref looking right at it. That ref and the ref standing under the goalposts with the actual clear view of him getting his jersey pulled off...that was even worse...the one in the picture may have not been able to see it but the other one absolutely did. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dablitzkrieg Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Did the Colts a lot of good Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPS Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 (edited) My conspiratorial side says it would be interesting to look at the relationship between penalties in a game and the last minute bets on games. I recall this post in the last game between these two, and indeed it seemed the Bills did not get hosed on penalties. Edited January 15, 2022 by TPS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 hours ago, Big Turk said: Not sure...likely it involves yardage lost on plays that were called back, TD lost on plays that are called back, adverse plays on defense when you get a penalty that converts a 3rd down for the offense, etc. Here is an in depth explanation... https://www.pro-football-reference.com/about/win_prob.htm That ref and the ref standing under the goalposts with the actual clear view of him getting his jersey pulled off...that was even worse...the one in the picture may have not been able to see it but the other one absolutely did. The Bills won games by at least 10 points. The teams most “affected” by refs effect on win probability win the most games. Win probability changes throughout the game constantly. Then a team wins. How does a drop in win probability (due to ref calls or anything else) during a game matter to the ultimate winner? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted January 15, 2022 Author Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said: The Bills won games by at least 10 points. The teams most “affected” by refs effect on win probability win the most games. Win probability changes throughout the game constantly. Then a team wins. How does a drop in win probability (due to ref calls or anything else) during a game matter to the ultimate winner? Read the formulas they use and it should explain it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, Big Turk said: Read the formulas they use and it should explain it. I did. It doesn’t answer my question re: ref calls Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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