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Bills win probability from penalties for/against worst in NFL this year


Big Turk
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Penalties cost the Bills a negative 120%ish win percentage...Colts were helped by penalties the most in the NFL with an unbelievable +224% win percentage boost and STILL missed the playoffs...

Edited by Big Turk
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Beat me to it. Saw this on the Pats board. Conspiracy theories are gonna fly😂 Bills get hammered more than any other team as far as "game changing" calls are concerned and it's not even close.

 

As some mentioned a lot of teams that have gotten shafted are still in the playoffs and it goes to show that quality rosters can overcome bad officiating.

 

If true, judging by this 📊 the Bills should win the Super Bowl 🏆

Edited by billsbackto81
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4 minutes ago, billsbackto81 said:

Beat me to it. Saw this on the Pats board. Conspiracy theories are gonna fly😂 Bills get hammered more than any other team as far as "game changing" calls are concerned and it's not even close.

 

As some mentioned a lot of teams that have gotten shafted are still in the playoffs and it goes to show that quality rosters can overcome bad officiating.

 

If true, judging by this 📊 the Bills should win the Super Bowl 🏆

 

Basically the Bills take penalties at the worst times, can't even count how many TDs were called back due to this

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1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

 

 

Penalties cost the Bills a negative 120%ish win percentage...Colts were helped by penalties the most in the NFL with an unbelievable +224% win percentage boost and STILL missed the playoffs...

It would be interesting to see the average over the last 5 years.

 

Also, I find it interesting that there are a lot more playoff teams in the negative versus the positive on this scale.

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1 hour ago, Chaos said:

Here me out.  Is it possible the Bills actually commit penalties at the worst possible time?

Or do the refs flag them at the worst possible time? I stopped counting how often replays showed phantom calls that were not definitive of a Bills penalty or very close but not called even for both teams during a game. Hence, the PI calls that went against us while Diggs was getting raped on his routes and nothing was called.

1 hour ago, MJS said:

Also, I find it interesting that there are a lot more playoff teams in the negative versus the positive on this scale.

That kind of goes into my conspiracy theory of better teams getting flagged to keep the games closer, keep them within the spread, or over/unders, etc... They want to keep as many games competitive as possible. 

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16 minutes ago, CEN-CAL17 said:

It being the playoffs the refs should be holding on to their flags a little more unless it’s blatant.

 

Anyone know who the crew is for tomorrow?

There was a thread with the referee but wouldn't be his regular crew for the season. If i recall be was pretty conservative in penalties.

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1 minute ago, Ralonzo said:

cigarette-smoking-man.jpg
 

You’re surprised?

“I hope the Smoking Man’s in this one!”

21 minutes ago, CEN-CAL17 said:

It being the playoffs the refs should be holding on to their flags a little more unless it’s blatant.

 

Anyone know who the crew is for tomorrow?

 

3 minutes ago, Coastie said:

There was a thread with the referee but wouldn't be his regular crew for the season. If i recall be was pretty conservative in penalties.

Correct.  Brad Allen is the ref - apparently his crew in the regular season were right around the league average in #of flags thrown per game (11.5ish).

 

Tend to be a little more lenient with offensive holding, and a little more flag-happy when it comes to DPI, but nothing crazy.

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4 hours ago, Chaos said:

Here me out.  Is it possible the Bills actually commit penalties at the worst possible time?

You're right! All teams that are generally proficient on Defense (especially a #1 ranked defense) are also so undisciplined. :doh:

 

C'mon man!

 

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The Bills are either the dirtiest cheats or the most inept and undisciplined team ever. Or they are neither and are the most unfairly picked on/disrespected team by the NFL's officials. Or maybe all of the above, some of the above?! In any case the Bills have always been a team that have had to overcome their opponents AND the refs with their inevitably bad decisions.

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