Playoff picture

[MPL]

Cleveland is a team to watch and root against. I played around with a lot of scenarios in the ESPN playoff machine and if Buffalo and Cleveland both finish 10-7, Cleveland gets in and we do not. That's the only scenario I've been able to find where 10-7 doesn't get Buffalo in. But, hopefully we just win out and finish 11-6. 

Edited December 13, 2021 by MPL

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

1 hour ago, Success said:

I'd still be shocked if we don't make the playoffs. All of the teams in the WC race have tough schedules coming up, and they all basically play each other multiple times.

 

The game I'm most interested in is Colts/Pats. That's a win-win for the Bills. Either NE puts a 7th loss on Indy, or Indy sets it up so we still have a shot at the division the following week (if we take care of business against the Panthers).

 

Pats fans online were pretty universal in celebrating their big division win yesterday. I don't think they were doing the math.

 

Yea I would’ve put us as the division favorite if we didn’t get robbed last night that’s why that one hurt so much 

[Matt_In_NH]

I believe this team can make a run if they get in.   I don't care where they go, I think they could win.   I think the Bills would not be a welcome opponent in many teams eyes.  

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

a weird thing I noticed messing with the playoff machine. If we win next week and so does cleveland and cincinatti.

 

Of course you'd think we want baltimore to lose, but if they win we are the 7th seed. If they lose we are out of a playoff spot for now. 

 

I think it's still better in the long run if they lose, but three way tiebeakers could be bad for us it seems.

[SCBills]

7 minutes ago, Rock-A-Bye Beasley said:

a weird thing I noticed messing with the playoff machine. If we win next week and so does cleveland and cincinatti.

 

Of course you'd think we want baltimore to lose, but if they win we are the 7th seed. If they lose we are out of a playoff spot for now. 

 

I think it's still better in the long run if they lose, but three way tiebeakers could be bad for us it seems.

 

That hinges on the NE/IND game.  

 

If that happens, and Indy wins, we are out of the playoffs come Monday morning.  However, that also sets up the game in Foxboro for the Division. 

[RichRiderBills]

I'm surprised the Bills are only 19% to win division. Basically if Pats lose to Colts it is on. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

1 hour ago, Hebert19 said:

I'm shocked we are still in 7 seed.  When I took a closer look Cleveland and Cincinnati both look like they will end up with the same or similar conference records...

 

We have a better SOV than both which is shocking.  Keep winning KC and Miami. Ha

 

So based on this we win 3 of 4 we should be good for 6 or 7 seed.  

 

Anything I'm missing?

Yes you are missing the fact that winning is the biggest problem for this team now. 

[RichRiderBills]

2 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

That hinges on the NE/IND game.  

 

If that happens, and Indy wins, we are out of the playoffs come Monday morning.  However, that also sets up the game in Foxboro for the Division. 

 

The later games also play, as those teams play themselves. We go 3-1 basically 90 percent chance to make it. 

[May Day 10]

1 hour ago, Wo-Bah said:

I don't know if I want this Bills team in the playoffs.  It doesn't seem like they're built for a deep run.

 

Put yourself as a fan of one of the division winners' shoes (assuming the Bills dont run the table and grab the Division)

 

Would you want Buffalo to be that first round opponent as opposed to Chargers, Colts, Browns, Bengals, Denver, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Vegas, Miami?  

 

[SCBills]

1 hour ago, Wo-Bah said:

I don't know if I want this Bills team in the playoffs.  It doesn't seem like they're built for a deep run.

 

What AFC teams do you think are?

 

Everyone in this conference is as flawed as us.   Some are more complete, but Josh Allen is the equalizer there.  Look no further than our WC game vs Indy last year.  

 

 

Edited December 13, 2021 by SCBills

[May Day 10]

Call me crazy, but I feel pretty confident about that New England game, provided Allen's health isnt a major issue.

[JerseyBills]

We'll be there in January and still capable of a run. 

I think we still have a shot at the division if we win out. 

But the way we play at home with all that energy from the fans, im fine that we'll be on the road. 

The AFC is wide open. No real powerhouses like in previous years. 

28 minutes ago, May Day 10 said:

Call me crazy, but I feel pretty confident about that New England game, provided Allen's health isnt a major issue.

Same. Very confident.  

The weather in the 1st gm played right into their strengths and our weaknesses 

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

Chiefs can really help us out Thursday and then I guess either way with the colts Pats, at least one of them has to lose probably which is good,

[Greg S]

4 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

Chiefs can really help us out Thursday and then I guess either way with the colts Pats, at least one of them has to lose probably which is good,

 

Definitely want the Colts to win. Assuming the Bills win their own game which they should then BUF at NE is a battle for first place. I would like to see them win the division and get a home game on WC weekend.

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

3 minutes ago, Greg S said:

 

Definitely want the Colts to win. Assuming the Bills win their own game which they should then BUF at NE is a battle for first place. I would like to see them win the division and get a home game on WC weekend.

I understand that thinking but either way it’s good for us. I’m not in the camp of believing the division is still in play here. Sorry. Just find a way to get in. I want as many outs as possible.

[Success]

I still want it all. The win over NE, the division title, the Super Bowl.  Not that it matters who we root for, but you have to want the Colts to win this week.  If we get swept by a Pats team w/ a rookie game manager QB, we don't deserve anything.

 

And it's all still there for the Bills.  Sending out good vibes for Allen's health.

 

[May Day 10]

There is a 6% swing with the Colts/Patriots game from 70% in with a Pats win to 64% with Colts.

 

That ups to 78% - 71% with a Bills' win vs Carolina.

 

You hate to assume things, but with a Colts win, and the Bills take care of business vs Atlanta, Carolina, and the Jets, they are 84% in.  If the Bills beat the Patriots there, we are attending a home playoff game.

[RichRiderBills]

8 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

I understand that thinking but either way it’s good for us. I’m not in the camp of believing the division is still in play here. Sorry. Just find a way to get in. I want as many outs as possible.

 

I still think it's in play. 

 

The 20% is deceptive because it is just on its own not taking into account we have to play Pats. 

 

We have 3/4 at home versus weak teams.

 

Pats have a rough schedule. They lose 3/4 we can even drop a game and win div. 

 

 

[Greg S]

14 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

I understand that thinking but either way it’s good for us. I’m not in the camp of believing the division is still in play here. Sorry. Just find a way to get in. I want as many outs as possible.

 

It definitely is in play if the Colts and Bills win this weekend. I can understand anyone who doesn't have much faith in the Bills right now. These last two losses sucked and were tough to take. I do think there is a good chance the Colts win Saturday and a great chance the Bills win on Sunday.

[RiotAct]

3 hours ago, Process said:

No way our actual chance of making the playoffs is 65%. It is definitely higher.

actually that sounds about right.

 

The Bills have shown they’re capable of losing to mediocre / bad teams (Pittsburgh, Jax) and losing close hard-fought games.

[SCBills]

There’s only a few different simulations that keep us out with a 3-1 finish, but the problem is those simulations don’t seem far fetched.   
 

I’ve done a bunch with us at 10-7 that seem very likely and we get in.  Others at 10-7, also make sense, and we don’t get in. 
 

With so many teams playing each other down the stretch, it’s impossible to predict what may happen. 

[JoshAllin]

I'd think the bills want the colts out of the playoffs if they make it. So I guess a pats win this week isn't too bad if bills can take care of business the next two weeks

 

 

Edited December 13, 2021 by motorj

[Since1981]

IF IF IF

IF Mitch has to go, wins...wow, what an insurance policy. Glad he is there. His play style helps the team--not a complete 'whiplash' of styles.

He does have enough experience, skill, and tools to be successful vs. Panthercam.

 

I still take 9-toe Josh first.... 90% of his toes still work!

[Greg S]

Both Saturday games are huge for the Bills then. Colts beating the Pats for obvious reasons. A Raiders win over the Browns is also huge for seeding purposes? Is that correct?

[buffblue]

2 hours ago, Greg S said:

See if I have this right.

 

Chiefs, Raiders, Colts ( want a shot at the division so a Colts win here helps with that), Titans (we aren't catching them so might as well knock Pitt down as they have the tiebreaker over Buffalo), Bengals, Packers

Definitely want the Broncos over Cincy. Give the Bengals that 7th loss because their conference record is superior to ours.

 

Also, Denver's remaining schedule other than that game is brutal with @LV, @LAC, vs. KC. And they have a poor AFC record at 3-5

Edited December 13, 2021 by buffblue

[Hebert19]

3 hours ago, Process said:

No way our actual chance of making the playoffs is 65%. It is definitely higher.

88 percent according to Sal 

[Greg S]

1 minute ago, buffblue said:

Definitely want the Broncos over Cincy. Give the Bengals that 7th loss because their conference record is superior to ours.

 

Also, Denver's remaining schedule other than that game is brutal with @LV, @LAC, vs. KC. And they have a poor AFC record at 3-5

 

If the Lamar injury is serious then I could see the Bengals winning their division.

[buffblue]

Just now, Hebert19 said:

88 percent according to Sal 

That I believe is from the NYT if the Bills just win the 3 home games and lose to the Pats.

 

If the Bills only win 3 games but one of them is against NE, the odds go to >99 %

1 minute ago, Greg S said:

 

If the Lamar injury is serious then I could see the Bengals winning their division.

Possibly in which case the Bengals would not be a concern, but who the hell knows how the AFC North is going to turn out.

 

That division will not be decided until late Sunday on the final weekend.

[Success]

Feels just like the old days w/ all of this "if this team beats that team, and we win these games, then...."

 

So nostalgic.

 

[buffblue]

13 minutes ago, motorj said:

I'd think the bills want the colts out of the playoffs if they make it. So I guess a pats win this week isn't too bad if bills can take care of business the next two weeks

 

 

Yes, and there is also the possibility that the Bills could still win the division even if New England beats the Colts. 

 

Bills would have to run the table and root for Miami to beat the Pats week 18 in Miami. Not as farfetched as you may think, given how Miami is playing well and always gives New England a game. I think they are 8-8 in the last 16 against them.

[Boatdrinks]

4 hours ago, Hebert19 said:

I'm shocked we are still in 7 seed.  When I took a closer look Cleveland and Cincinnati both look like they will end up with the same or similar conference records...

 

We have a better SOV than both which is shocking.  Keep winning KC and Miami. Ha

 

So based on this we win 3 of 4 we should be good for 6 or 7 seed.  

 

Anything I'm missing?

Maybe. Before yesterday’s results the key game for the Bills ( if they finish with losses to TB and @NE) is Saturday’s matchup between NE and IND. If the Colts defeat NE that result was very damaging to the Bills playoff chances. That may have changed after the other games yesterday. Any idea about that? I haven’t checked the playoff machine since Saturday 

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

The raiders aren’t beating the browns. The Raiders are terrible 

[Boatdrinks]

8 minutes ago, Success said:

Feels just like the old days w/ all of this "if this team beats that team, and we win these games, then...."

 

So nostalgic.

 

Every season is different and may not be the teams best. However , I will take playoff berths in those years rather than missing out. The nostalgia you mention was almost always missing the postseason. The Bills still have a great chance to get in if they win vs CAR, ATL, and NYJ they’re still in control of their season. 

[atlbillsfan1975]

3 hours ago, Wo-Bah said:

I don't know if I want this Bills team in the playoffs.  It doesn't seem like they're built for a deep run.

You must have turned off yesterdays game at halftime. 

[UKBillFan]

Just now, atlbillsfan1975 said:

You must have turned off yesterdays game at halftime. 

 

We're capable of having a late run but we haven't often hit that standard this season.

[colin]

i think our playoffs started in the second half of last night.  we gotta win em all to be champions.

[Nextmanup]

2 minutes ago, colin said:

i think our playoffs started in the second half of last night.  we gotta win em all to be champions.

Not true at all, but it won't stop posters from repeating this all over this board.

 

😢

[colin]

1 minute ago, Nextmanup said:

Not true at all, but it won't stop posters from repeating this all over this board.

 

😢

 

it's not true that i think that?  what do i think?

 

look, it may be mathematically true that we don't need to win out to win a superbowl, but in terms of swag, mo, and confidence, i think we finally showed some as a total team at the end of last night, and we are in a fragile place and need to keep that standard to win.

[Success]

25 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

Every season is different and may not be the teams best. However , I will take playoff berths in those years rather than missing out. The nostalgia you mention was almost always missing the postseason. The Bills still have a great chance to get in if they win vs CAR, ATL, and NYJ they’re still in control of their season. 

 

Oh, I know - just being goofy.  My kids aren't happy about how the season has gone & are in that "who cares if we even make the playoffs now" mode.  

 

After the drought, I'll never be like that.  Just get in.

 

[Greg S]

7 minutes ago, Success said:

 

Oh, I know - just being goofy.  My kids aren't happy about how the season has gone & are in that "who cares if we even make the playoffs now" mode.  

 

After the drought, I'll never be like that.  Just get in.

 

 

You know what game makes me a little nervous. The Jets game. The Bills will need that game to either win the division or clinch a WC. Remember a few years back the Jets needed a win on the last week of the season to clinch a playoff spot and the Bills ruined their season by beating them. I could see the Jets wanting to get payback for that. You know the NY media will make a big deal of it leading up to the game. I realize the Bills are a much better team but divisional games can be funny since both teams know each other so well.

Edited December 13, 2021 by Greg S