Big Turk Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 (edited) Pretty interesting stuff....would be interested in seeing if that's what happened with Thurman...remember he fell off a cliff pretty hard https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/4940/measuring-nfl-running-back-longevity-falling-off-the-1-800-carry-cliff EDIT: Thurman fell off the cliff after 1713 regular season carries but with all the additional ones in the playoffs I'm guessing those probably count towards them... Edited November 17, 2021 by Big Turk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuvian Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 (edited) what about Peterson? In a related study I tend to pass out after 12 (Canadian) beer and a few shots of Jameson Edited November 17, 2021 by stuvian 1 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wvbillsfan Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 Interesting but I wonder what more current information looks like I’m not doing the research because I don’t care that much but it’s a pretty cool article Thanks for posting 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cruiserplayer Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 16 minutes ago, stuvian said: what about Peterson? In a related study I tend to pass out after 12 (Canadian) beer and a few shots of Jameson Wussy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugar High JA17 Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 for sure man, im not gonna sweat it too dude, I live in the now also, Some call it a hologram in the sports planet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuvian Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 this league is so geeked up on stats. In related news people get old and old football players get beat up. A shocking development 4 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allen2D̶i̶g̶g̶s̶TBD Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 So you're saying Devin Singletary should be good for another decade then... 3 9 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan619 Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 14 minutes ago, Allen2Diggs said: So you're saying Devin Singletary should be good for another decade then... I’m thinking at least two more decades, bro. 😜 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaBillsJunkie Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 (edited) 33 minutes ago, BillsFan619 said: I’m thinking at least two more decades, bro. 😜 I'll take a few more good games. If Breida didn't cough it up, he'd be playing a lot more. Singlemoss is not getting it done. Draft RB and OL early or go get Fournette, Connor, Mostert or Mack but don't overpay. Edited November 17, 2021 by TampaBillsJunkie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBillyG Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 Frank Gore passed 1800 carries in 2012. Since then he topped 1,000 in a season 3 times. Gained another 7,000 yards. His ypc DID drop significantly after 2012...he now sits at 3736 carries. Wheels fell of twice for him. That isn't common. He is an outlier. But man, how impressive is that? Guy is a freak of nature. Glad the was a Bill for a season. 3 4 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ethan in Cleveland Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 If I'm doing my math correctly, Shady put up seasons of 1267 (5.4 YPR) and 1138 (4.0 YPR) yards rushing well after he passed 1800 carries. He hit the wall more around 2100 rushes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mango Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 2 hours ago, Allen2Diggs said: So you're saying Devin Singletary should be good for another decade then... Just wait until we get Spiller in space! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
badassgixxer05 Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, Mango said: Just wait until we get Spiller in space! Spiller was a dangerous dude. For a season or two then he fell off that cliff. Man do i miss those breakaway runs. Pretty sure a bunch of dl in the league can run moss/singletary down from behind.. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BADOLBILZ Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 (edited) 3 hours ago, Big Turk said: Pretty interesting stuff....would be interested in seeing if that's what happened with Thurman...remember he fell off a cliff pretty hard https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/4940/measuring-nfl-running-back-longevity-falling-off-the-1-800-carry-cliff EDIT: Thurman fell off the cliff after 1713 regular season carries but with all the additional ones in the playoffs I'm guessing those probably count towards them... That article is from 2015. They don't mass produce the RB's like those discussed in that article anymore. It's the rare one that's still at his peak past age 26 now. Nowadays you gotta' count the college touches as well............the starting RB's of today are mostly the athletes that used to back up the starting RB's of yesterday.........and those dudes weren't good for 1800 carries. The athletes that used to dominate the RB position now play money positions like receiver..........or moreso as defenders in the pass game. Patrick Peterson is a good example of what I'm talking about...........he wanted to play RB in college...........his old man said no way.........you are going to play CB and get PAID. Edited November 17, 2021 by BADOLBILZ 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjmac Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 2 hours ago, stuvian said: what about Peterson? In a related study I tend to pass out after 12 (Canadian) beer and a few shots of Jameson Why bother starting with beer? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted November 17, 2021 Author Share Posted November 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said: That article is from 2015. They don't mass produce the RB's like those discussed in that article anymore. It's the rare one that's still at his peak past age 26 now. Nowadays you gotta' count the college touches as well............the starting RB's of today are mostly the athletes that used to back up the starting RB's of yesterday.........and those dudes weren't good for 1800 carries. The athletes that used to dominate the RB position now play money positions like receiver..........or moreso as defenders in the pass game. Patrick Peterson is a good example of what I'm talking about...........he wanted to play RB in college...........his old man said no way.........you are going to play CB and get PAID. You mean his Dad was like: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mango Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 30 minutes ago, badassgixxer05 said: Spiller was a dangerous dude. For a season or two then he fell off that cliff. Man do i miss those breakaway runs. Pretty sure a bunch of dl in the league can run moss/singletary down from behind.. Unsure if you were kicking around here those days but “getting Spiller in space” was basically a weekly thread season after season. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mango Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 29 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said: That article is from 2015. They don't mass produce the RB's like those discussed in that article anymore. It's the rare one that's still at his peak past age 26 now. Nowadays you gotta' count the college touches as well............the starting RB's of today are mostly the athletes that used to back up the starting RB's of yesterday.........and those dudes weren't good for 1800 carries. The athletes that used to dominate the RB position now play money positions like receiver..........or moreso as defenders in the pass game. Patrick Peterson is a good example of what I'm talking about...........he wanted to play RB in college...........his old man said no way.........you are going to play CB and get PAID. Derek Henry is taller, heavier, and faster than Milano. The way he hits people when he has the football is terrifying. Couldn’t imagine if roles were reversed. Imagine this defense with Henry as sort of a tweener in the nickel. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChronicAndKnuckles Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 (edited) 6 hours ago, badassgixxer05 said: Spiller was a dangerous dude. For a season or two then he fell off that cliff. Man do i miss those breakaway runs. Pretty sure a bunch of dl in the league can run moss/singletary down from behind.. What the heck happened to that guy? Spiller had that one great season in 2012 where he put up nearly 1700 yards from scrimmage (around 1250 rushing and 450 passing.) The highlights from that year are fun to watch and it's among my favorite single season performances of any Bill, guy was incredibly shifty. Definitely one of the more baffling draft picks of all time. Surprisingly he lasted 9 years in the league. Edited November 17, 2021 by ChronicAndKnuckles Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 (edited) I guess this matches the not so new convention that RBs fall off of a cliff after 30 yo. Figure most main back average 250-300 touches per season which takes 6-8 seasons and they start at 21-22. it all adds up! Edited November 17, 2021 by Over 29 years of fanhood Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevewin Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 What's Tolbert's excuse 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBrownBear Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 I don't subscribe to the theory that Thurman "fell off the cliff". There were a lot of things going against him at the time his YPC took a hit (1993-94). Kelly was aging and not the same guy he was a couple of years earlier, the offensive line was significantly worse, Marchibroda left and the rest of the league had caught up with the K-Gun. The entire offense lost a step or two during that period. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheyCallMeAndy Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 How many more carries does Brady need? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColoradoBills Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 Math is fun. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thenorthremembers Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 7 hours ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said: What the heck happened to that guy? Spiller had that one great season in 2012 where he put up nearly 1700 yards from scrimmage (around 1250 rushing and 450 passing.) The highlights from that year are fun to watch and it's among my favorite single season performances of any Bill, guy was incredibly shifty. Definitely one of the more baffling draft picks of all time. Surprisingly he lasted 9 years in the league. The Bills outsmarted themselves with Spiller. They were so worried about his weight and inability to run between the tackles that they didnt use him as a feature back until three years into his career. Then he ended up under the curse of St. Doug who wanted punishing backs, and huge offensive lineman. Pretty sure the front office and coaches here essentially wasted an incredible talent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChronicAndKnuckles Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 6 hours ago, thenorthremembers said: The Bills outsmarted themselves with Spiller. They were so worried about his weight and inability to run between the tackles that they didnt use him as a feature back until three years into his career. Then he ended up under the curse of St. Doug who wanted punishing backs, and huge offensive lineman. Pretty sure the front office and coaches here essentially wasted an incredible talent. Yeah, Spiller would've fared much better in a zone blocking scheme. They never figured out ways to get him into open space. While I don't think he would've ended up like Chris Johnson given a better situation I think he could've definitely been a Darren Sproles type player. Either way it was a dumb pick Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 15 hours ago, stevewin said: What's Tolbert's excuse He was the size of a cliff? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hondo in seattle Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 On 11/16/2021 at 6:46 PM, Big Turk said: Pretty interesting stuff....would be interested in seeing if that's what happened with Thurman...remember he fell off a cliff pretty hard https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/4940/measuring-nfl-running-back-longevity-falling-off-the-1-800-carry-cliff EDIT: Thurman fell off the cliff after 1713 regular season carries but with all the additional ones in the playoffs I'm guessing those probably count towards them... Interesting but... We all knew RBs have shelf lives. I just never knew 1800 carries was the magic number. And I still don't. They only looked at backs from the past 15 years who had at least 2000 carries. That left them with a sample size of only 8. Not enough to draw firm conclusions. There are backs - like Shady - who never reached the 2000 carries mark to qualify for this study because they had fallen off their own cliffs long before. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BADOLBILZ Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 On 11/16/2021 at 11:38 PM, Mango said: Derek Henry is taller, heavier, and faster than Milano. The way he hits people when he has the football is terrifying. Couldn’t imagine if roles were reversed. Imagine this defense with Henry as sort of a tweener in the nickel. Henry has the frame of a defensive end. Financially, IMO he got bad advice staying at RB. Despite being as good of a RB as anyone could have ever dreamed.......he is quite possibly on the backside of his earnings potential and has "only" earned $30M. Doesn't take long to earn that if you can rush the passer a little. Jerry Hughes is a player the casual NFL fan barely knows.......he was a virtual bust for his first team and hasn't had a double digit sack season since 2014 and he has earned $80M. Not saying Hughes is not good..........but Henry is a really special athlete who might end up in the HOF even if he flames out soon because a RB producing 2,000 rushing yards NOW is maybe impossible for someone except him. Just not how the league works anymore. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Smith Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 I think with a an avg back I buy this. With a HOF quality back I do not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Numark3 Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 On 11/17/2021 at 4:11 AM, ChronicAndKnuckles said: What the heck happened to that guy? Spiller had that one great season in 2012 where he put up nearly 1700 yards from scrimmage (around 1250 rushing and 450 passing.) The highlights from that year are fun to watch and it's among my favorite single season performances of any Bill, guy was incredibly shifty. Definitely one of the more baffling draft picks of all time. Surprisingly he lasted 9 years in the league. he came into the league at the wrong time and for the wrong team. He gets drafted the past couple years and he’d be a stud 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TBBills Posted November 20, 2021 Share Posted November 20, 2021 On 11/16/2021 at 10:52 PM, Mango said: Just wait until we get Spiller in space! This post got me winded. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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