Gunner's 2021 FINAL Mock Draft on PAGE 21

[SoCal Deek]

Happened to open my Google feed earlier and sure enough the latest Mock that came up had the Bills taking...you guessed it...the CB from Northwestern! 

[Victory Formation]

1 hour ago, whorlnut said:

I just can’t get behind a first round corner in any way. Not even close to our biggest need. We need to add an athletic edge, playmaker on offense, or an OT. 

Especially since we rarely play man. We seem to be in zone more often than not. Correct me if I’m wrong. Think the earliest we should draft a corner is RD3. Get a big physical press corner.

1 hour ago, whorlnut said:

Corner is probably the one position that would make me break a tv on draft night...

It wouldn’t make me break my tv. It’s not a stupid approach, but definitely not the approach I’d take.

[GunnerBill]

11 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Thanks for the entertainment. 

 

YOU DRAFTED A CB IN THE FIRST ROUND!  DIE!  DIE!  {cue the usual suspects}  That's not who I want to see the Bills draft, At All.  I think we have far bigger needs elsewhere and does the talent difference really justify that?  IMO, give us a pass rush and an upgrade at LB and we'll see

 

Question: If the Carolina Panthers win the "Watson Sweepstakes", wouldn't that involve giving up their 1st round pick?

 

Yes it certainly would but as I said this is a no trade mock. I agree there is a sort of logical inconsistency between saying they don't need one cos they might have Watson and then picking with a pick they will have to have given up. But my basic premise was I don't see Carolina going QB at #8. 

 

And my final word on the corner thing is... I did not set out thinking "I am going to give the Bills a corner." I just go pick by pick and say "this is the board, what makes sense in terms of value?" I had it down to Newsome and Leatherwood essentially and think the OT class is a lot deeper so there might still be one left worth considering at #61. Which is the sort of thing teams consider when they get it down to two guys they have similarly graded. 

 

I did know it wouldn't be popular and I almost thought "don't do it because it will dominate the debate" but I try and take that stuff out of it.

17 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Happened to open my Google feed earlier and sure enough the latest Mock that came up had the Bills taking...you guessed it...the CB from Northwestern! 

 

He is a really good prospect IMO. As I said to @BillfromNYC earlier I have him as a top 20 or so player and if he played for Ohio State he would be getting that kind of hype.

[NewEra]

Interesting.  I didn’t see that one coming, even though it could be viewed as a huge need and Newsome has been rising up the boards.  
 

I guess I didn’t see him as the perfect scheme fit.  Not because of his cover ability....he’s a slam dunk in that regard.  Height, length, movement are all plus plus. I didn’t see the fit as much due lack of effectiveness vs the run.  Maybe the nfl weight room will improve his functional strength enough to help him become at least average in that regard. Is he “Injury prone”?  Idk, but he missed at least one game in every season due to injury. 

 

I wouldn’t hate it.  
 

I’m coming around to the fact that we’ll have to bolster our pass rush via FA this offseason if we want to improve it to the point where it’s a weapon.  
 

the top 4-3 edge guys may all be gone before 30 and the next guys in line are 240-250 lb guys that project better in the 3-4.  The guy I have my eyes on, Patrick Jones doesn’t seem to project as a 1st rd pick according to most.  
 

I love the talent in the first 3 rounds in OL, DL, CB.  Adding a WR or RB in the first 4 rds could happen if we don’t add anyone in FA.  

 

Ideally,  if Bolton, Collins, Phillips, Rousseau and Paye are gone, I’d like to trade down (maybe twice if possible) and grab 1-2 extra top 100ish picks.  Adding 4 top 100 picks instead of 2 would do our roster wonders over the next 4 years if they develop into starters.  Trading down is easier said that done, but that’s best case imo.  Would love to get a combination of Patrick Jones, Jabril Cox and a versatile OL by the end of the 2nd rd.  Add Tyler Shelvin or T Slaton + Gainwell + Darden. With the next 3.  Wishful thinking 😂 

[TheBeaneBandit]

32 minutes ago, inaugural balls said:

 

You've got one of the best CBs in the league. You make the other work best you can.

 

We need to get after the QB.

I believe the Bills need to get creative in free agency to help the pass rush. I don't see any prospects who will "likely" be available at #30 who will make much of an impact in their first year. JMO.

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, TheBeaneBandit said:

I believe the Bills need to get creative in free agency to help the pass rush. I don't see any prospects who will "likely" be available at #30 who will make much of an impact in their first year. JMO.

 

This is correct IMO. We are right between the guys who I think have a shot to contribute year 1 and the next batch of guys who have talent but are a bit more developmental. 

[SoCal Deek]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

This is correct IMO. We are right between the guys who I think have a shot to contribute year 1 and the next batch of guys who have talent but are a bit more developmental. 

Anyone know the phone number at the Panthers office? They usually seem to take our calls. 

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, SoCal Deek said:

Anyone know the phone number at the Panthers office? They usually seem to take our calls. 

 

Beano has it on speed dial. 

[Victory Formation]

9 minutes ago, TheBeaneBandit said:

I believe the Bills need to get creative in free agency to help the pass rush. I don't see any prospects who will "likely" be available at #30 who will make much of an impact in their first year. JMO.

Leonard Floyd would be a good pickup at the right price. $4M-$5M/yr. Not a full time starter but maybe a decent rotational guy.

 

As far as the draft goes, it’s deeper than just an EDGE rusher being there, obviously Boogie Basham or Zaven Collins would be ideal pieces, but you could go for a LB or DT there too.. Owusu would be great, but probably gone. Could go with Jay Tufele, a very good DT prospect, can stuff the run and provide a pass rush. Can drop down even further than that and go after Tedarrell Slaton or Marvin Wilson.

 

Basically, if the value isn’t there for us at need positions, you trade down until the value matches up. Acquire draft picks for this year and beyond.

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, Victory Formation said:

Leonard Floyd would be a good pickup at the right price. $4M-$5M/yr. Not a full time starter but maybe a decent rotational guy.

 

As far as the draft goes, it’s deeper than just an EDGE rusher being there, obviously Boogie Basham or Zaven Collins would be ideal pieces, but you could go for a LB or DT there too.. Owusu would be great, but probably gone. Could go with Jay Tufele, a very good DT prospect, can stuff the run and provide a pass rush. Can drop down even further than that and go after Tedarrell Slaton or Marvin Wilson.

 

Basically, if the value isn’t there for us at need positions, you trade down until the value matches up. Acquire draft picks for this year and beyond.

 

If the board fell as it did in this mock I think the Bills would be very open to trade calls. 

 

EDIT: Not sure I see Floyd as a fit. He is purely a 3-4 OLB IMO, think he lacks the functional strength to play as a 4-3 end. He could come and just be a sub rusher on 3rd and longs but not sure you pay $5m for that. Carl Lawson from the Bengals would interest me - not sure how much he is expected to make on the market. 

Edited February 21, 2021 by GunnerBill

[PrimeTime101]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Thanks for the entertainment. 

 

YOU DRAFTED A CB IN THE FIRST ROUND!  DIE!  DIE!  {cue the usual suspects}  That's not who I want to see the Bills draft, At All.  I think we have far bigger needs elsewhere and does the talent difference really justify that?  IMO, give us a pass rush and an upgrade at LB and we'll see

 

Question: If the Carolina Panthers win the "Watson Sweepstakes", wouldn't that involve giving up their 1st round pick?

I am one of those suspects lol. I just think G, T, 1 tech DT, Edge, OLB comes way before CB

 

Edited And if one of the top 2 rb fall our way round 1? hes gone..

Edited February 21, 2021 by PrimeTime101

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

I am one of those suspects lol. I just think G, T, 1 tech DT, Edge, OLB comes way before CB

 

Edited And if one of the top 2 rb fall our way round 1? hes gone..

 

1 tech, G, OLB much lower positional value. They are positions you can fill later. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

14 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

1 tech, G, OLB much lower positional value. They are positions you can fill later. 

 

Then since we need 3 of those, maybe the right thing is trade down for more picks. 

[Bill from NYC]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

YOU DRAFTED A CB IN THE FIRST ROUND!  DIE!  DIE!  {cue the usual suspects}  

 

I know that you couldn't possibly be referring to me.  😮

[NewEra]

9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

1 tech, G, OLB much lower positional value. They are positions you can fill later. 

I agree about 1tech and guard, especially in this draft.  Looking at the off ball LBs, I usually agree, but replacing Milano will be a full time job and an extremely important cog in a mcdermott defense. We did well getting Milano in rd 5, I’m just not sure we want to put our eggs in a late rd lb again....unless they plan on starting Dodson or Klein.

 

I hope we can land, Collins, Bolton, Surratt, Cox, Browning, Moses, Tony fields and maybe Mcgrone as a replacement.  I haven’t looked into the rd 5-7 rd guys at all, so maybe theirs someone that can surprise.

 

We don’t even know for sure if Edmunds will be in our long term plans. I hope we can draft a guy we can depend on to be on the field 100% of our defensive plays for the next 4 years 

 

 

4 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

I know that you couldn't possibly be referring to me.  😮

Draft a cb while bypassing an Alabama OL no less!!

[Hapless Bills Fan]

13 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

I know that you couldn't possibly be referring to me.  😮

 

I I

[RyanC883]

First, this is awesome and thanks for taking the time to do this again!!

 

I like a lot of your picks.  I think for the Bills I’d take OT Mayfield in Rd. 1, and hope Surratt is there in Rd. 2.  If not, might trade back or grab J. Williams from UNC.  

 

In other picks, I have Fields as QB2, and Lance as QB 3.  I even think that if the Jets are stuck with Darnold they (or the Falcons) could take a flyer on Lance hoping a year to learn turns him into a Josh Allen type.  

Just now, RyanC883 said:

First, this is awesome and thanks for taking the time to do this again!!

 

I like a lot of your picks.  I think for the Bills I’d take OT Mayfield in Rd. 1, and hope Surratt is there in Rd. 2.  If not, might trade back or grab J. Williams from UNC.  

 

Edited February 21, 2021 by RyanC883

[maddenboy]

4 hours ago, Victory Formation said:

Ain’t it a shame that Zaven Collins is gone before we pick and obviously I’m beating the Boogie Basham drum hard but if you took him out of the equation and that was my reality at #30 and I was forced to go by your board for arguments sake, I think I’d have to go Najee Harris there. I’m very high on Jay Tufele as well, you have him at #40, which is a nice spot for him. Maybe he rises, I don’t know but I would not be against trading back and taking him at the top of RD2 or maybe even at #30, but it may make sense to wait and see if Tedarrell Slaton is there or Marvin Wilson at #61. I have Tufele considerably higher than both but Slaton and Wilson would be very good pieces on that IDL.

I dont think you ever take a RB in the very-late first round.  I think you take a position where you might actually want the valuable 5th year option.

 

I know this is a NO-TRADE draft but, if I cant trade out of 30, I'm taking a much more valuable position.  As in:  Not a fungible widget who I can replace pretty much every year in the draft.

 

(and GB:  wow.  you should be paid for the work you put in.  As soon as I saw the title of the post, I had to pause and get my snacks and settle in for a nice, long, enjoyable read.  Thankyousir).

Edited February 21, 2021 by maddenboy

[RyanC883]

1 hour ago, TheBeaneBandit said:

I believe the Bills need to get creative in free agency to help the pass rush. I don't see any prospects who will "likely" be available at #30 who will make much of an impact in their first year. JMO.

 

I’d go OL or LB, or even RB at 30.  ppl that can make an instant impact.  Heck, I’d take TCU safety if somehow he is there.  

BTW, when are you doing round 3?!  😜

 

kidding, this is awesome. 

Giants getting Pitts is steal of the draft and will make that offense top 15 IMo.  

[Magox]

A lot of work you put into it, I appreciate it.

 

I wouldn't be opposed to going for a difference making DB.   Everyone is talking about the pass pressure which is critical but you also have to have a good defensive backfield. Without the DB's that can hold their man up to certain time period you have to have players that can cover long enough for the rushers to get to the QB.    I'm basically for the concept of drafting BPA (unless it's a QB).   

[stinky finger]

1 hour ago, TheBeaneBandit said:

I believe the Bills need to get creative in free agency to help the pass rush. I don't see any prospects who will "likely" be available at #30 who will make much of an impact in their first year. JMO.

 

Absolutely agree. 

 

Defense via FA - pass rush specific 

 

Protect Josh and supply him with weapons via draft 

[TheBeaneBandit]

1 minute ago, inaugural balls said:

 

Absolutely agree. 

 

Defense via FA - pass rush specific 

 

Protect Josh and supply him with weapons via draft 

I'm 100% on that train! 👍

[LABILLBACKER]

6 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

If the draft fell this way I think I’d rather trade down naji Harris would make an excellent second round draft pick

We already have Dane likely taking over the CB2 slot. Our front 4 needs far outweigh our secondary. I too would love to trade out of the 1st for and extra 2nd. Maybe snag Najee or Basham? 

[FireChans]

2 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

We already have Dane likely taking over the CB2 slot. Our front 4 needs far outweigh our secondary. I too would love to trade out of the 1st for and extra 2nd. Maybe snag Najee or Basham? 

This is news to everyone. Probably news to Dane too.

[Ga boy]

Gunner:  Would you take Nixon or Phillips over the CB if they were there?  Just askin.  I hope they are!!

[LABILLBACKER]

14 minutes ago, FireChans said:

This is news to everyone. Probably news to Dane too.

It might be news to Levi. 

[Aussie Joe]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

If we want to be able to defend KC more effectively I think we need to have 2 corners who we are willing to single up occasionally.  

I think you can have the 2 best corners in the League and it won’t matter much if Mahomes has all day in the pocket ...

 

We just saw a clinic two weeks ago on how to kick the Chiefs and it was making Mahomes run for his life... The Bucs CB’s are solid but not elite in my book...

 

However .... like you are saying repeatedly... I don’t like the DE options that will be available at Pick 30...they are too raw or not the right schemes fit...

 

Trading down would be ideal although not guaranteed ... in this make believe world I would trade down to 40 and take Chazz Surratt...

[Da webster guy]

Nice info GB.

 

Hard to say what positions are prioritized until free agency moves are completed, but I get the sense that Milano may be a goner in which case we are one Tremaine Edmunds injury away from officially sucking on defense, regardless of what happens with the Dline.

 

Beaner is famous for saying drafting for need will set you back, but he's not picking a LT, QB, WR, RB or safety in the early rounds.  

 

We have a 2 year window until Josh hits our cap for $35+ million per year which is going to drastically reduce our ability to sign top free agents or retain our key guys, we need rooks that can come in and contribute right away so they need to be smart AND instinctive players.

[NewEra]

38 minutes ago, Ga boy said:

Gunner:  Would you take Nixon or Phillips over the CB if they were there?  Just askin.  I hope they are!!

Def not Nixon imo.

[NewEra]

2 minutes ago, Da webster guy said:

Nice info GB.

 

Hard to say what positions are prioritized until free agency moves are completed, but I get the sense that Milano may be a goner in which case we are one Tremaine Edmunds injury away from officially sucking on defense, regardless of what happens with the Dline.

 

Beaner is famous for saying drafting for need will set you back, but he's not picking a LT, QB, WR, RB or safety in the early rounds.  

 

We have a 2 year window until Josh hits our cap for $35+ million per year which is going to drastically reduce our ability to sign top free agents or retain our key guys, we need rooks that can come in and contribute right away so they need to be smart AND instinctive players.

I could see him taking a WR if Kadarious is on the board.  Several option at wr and rb in rd 2-3 as well.  I think, as many have already alluded to.....much of the draft will be predicated on free agency results.  I expect BPA in an area of need.  If we lose brown and don’t sign another WR, WR could be considered a need based on our offense.  Speed at RB is a need imo.  Off ball LB.  pass rush.  oL. 1tech.  Corner. TE. All depends on what the roster looks like come April 

[stinky finger]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Then since we need 3 of those, maybe the right thing is trade down for more picks. 

 

Or - depending how the players come off, get Josh some high end weaponry. Fill the needs further down as mentioned.

 

Ettienne or Harris would step right in and make a positive impact and add another dimension. 

 

Is there any way K. Toney makes it to 30? I love how he looks on tape. Looks like he'd shine in our offense. Looks great after the catch.

[DJB]

@GunnerBill

Very well thought out mock. Outstanding work. 

 

The only thing I disagree with is that Friermuth needs work on his blocking. I think hes one of the best blocking TE's in the draft. To me he is going to start day 1 in the NFL. 

 

Other than I couldn't disagree with much!

[GunnerBill]

39 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

I think you can have the 2 best corners in the League and it won’t matter much if Mahomes has all day in the pocket ...

 

We just saw a clinic two weeks ago on how to kick the Chiefs and it was making Mahomes run for his life... The Bucs CB’s are solid but not elite in my book...

 

However .... like you are saying repeatedly... I don’t like the DE options that will be available at Pick 30...they are too raw or not the right schemes fit...

 

 

Completely agree. The two teams that beat Mahomes this year both pressured him on more than 50% of his dropbacks. We will have to find a way to pressure him, thought having two corners who you can trust to go and plays more press might just make him hold it a split second longer that helps your rushers. And as you say the reason I didm't go edge at #30 was because there wasn't one there that made sense in terms of value and fit.

10 minutes ago, DJB said:

@GunnerBill

Very well thought out mock. Outstanding work. 

 

The only thing I disagree with is that Friermuth needs work on his blocking. I think hes one of the best blocking TE's in the draft. To me he is going to start day 1 in the NFL. 

 

Other than I couldn't disagree with much!

 

Thank you. I think he can block it needs a bit of polish for the pros that is all. If I didn't think he could block then he wouldn't have been a fit in Jax I don't think. 

[HappyDays]

8 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

If the draft fell this way I think I’d rather trade down naji Harris would make an excellent second round draft pick

 

Everyone always wants to trade down, I just don't see an opportunity to do so this year. There aren't going to be blue chip players available at #30 that teams will want to give up picks for. Maybe if a team at the top of round 2 really likes Leatherwood and wants to jump the Chiefs for him? That's the only trade down scenario I could foresee.

 

More likely I think is that Beane will look to trade up. If Owusu-Koramoah or Toney fall into the 20s I could see us giving up our 3rd to get one of them. Both are perfect fits for the Bills as needs and scheme matches. Beane isn't the type to sit and hope he gets his guy. He wants to draft day 1 impact starters in the 1st round.

Edited February 21, 2021 by HappyDays

[Aussie Joe]

14 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Completely agree. The two teams that beat Mahomes this year both pressured him on more than 50% of his dropbacks. We will have to find a way to pressure him, thought having two corners who you can trust to go and plays more press might just make him hold it a split second longer that helps your rushers. And as you say the reason I didm't go edge at #30 was because there wasn't one there that made sense in terms of value and fit.

It can’t hurt to have a better 2nd corner but am hoping they can get there cheaper than Pick 30 ...
 

BTW - I do like Radunz and would be very happy with that pick in the 2nd ... but I think he might gone by 40... 

 

Also... I think Landon Dickerson won’t get picked in the first as teams will be put off by his injury history ...

Edited February 21, 2021 by Aussie Joe

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Everyone always wants to trade down, I just don't see an opportunity to do so this year. There aren't going to be blue chip players available at #30 that teams will want to give up picks for. Maybe if a team at the top of round 2 really likes Leatherwood and wants to jump the Chiefs for him? That's the only trade down scenario I could foresee.

 

More likely I think is that Beane will look to trade up. If Owusu-Koramoah or Toney fall into the 20s I could see us giving up our 3rd to get one of them. Both are perfect fits for the Bills as needs and scheme matches. Beane isn't the type to sit and hope he gets his guy. He wants to draft day 1 impact starters in the 1st round.

 

I agree with that. If you had asked me before I sat down to do this mock "is there any chance the Bills trade up in round 1?" I'd have said you need your head examining. But through the process of doing this there are guys, the three potential edge guys who I think can play in a 4-3, JOK, Toney possibly, maybe one of the top 4 OTs.... that if they just slipped into that range of the early 20s then Beane could be interested. The question is who would trade back? The Bears at #20 would I think but the cost of that is our 2nd round pick.... too rich? The Colts I doubt they are like us... they need 2 or 3 impact guys. Tennessee not if there is an edge rusher there they like, no way. The Jets? Rare you trade with a division opponent in round 1, the Steelers I think would at #24 and the Jags at #25 and they are doable with our 3rd rounder. So if an impact player drops to there... Pittsburgh... then it is possible IMO. 

[HappyDays]

9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

the Steelers I think would at #24 and the Jags at #25 and they are doable with our 3rd rounder. So if an impact player drops to there... Pittsburgh... then it is possible IMO.

 

Jacksonville was my immediate thought. They are in full rebuild mode and have enough high end picks already where they can afford to move down a little in exchange for another young talented player. If Beane has a 1st round grade on any player left at #25 that's where I'd expect us to make a move.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Good write up.  I will puke if they draft a DB in the first three rounds.  They have cheap quality guys in Levi and Dane to pair with White. They need pass rushers - at least three new faces either in FA or the draft. They have needed them for three years and they continue to swing and miss.   Obviously we will have a better sense of their needs in a few weeks once the initial rush of FA is over and if they are able to sign Williams.  

[HappyDays]

6 hours ago, whorlnut said:

I just can’t get behind a first round corner in any way. Not even close to our biggest need. We need to add an athletic edge, playmaker on offense, or an OT. 

 

I mostly agree, can't get too excited about drafting a CB2 in the 1st round. But we're talking about pick #30. There aren't going to be any options that will blow you away at that spot. Doing some reading on Newsome he does look like a perfect scheme fit and a good complement for what we get from White. He seems athletic enough to keep up with the Tyreek Hills of the league. Also with Milano likely walking and the front 4 likely seeing modest at best improvements this offseason, we might need better coverage on the back end if we want our defense to have any chance of stopping good offenses. So personally I would rather we draft a different position but if we pick a CB2 as long as they actually have athleticism like Newsome does I'll be satisfied. If we draft a slow, low upside "instinctual" corner that is a pick I would hate.

Edited February 21, 2021 by HappyDays

[OldTimer1960]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

I could see him taking a WR if Kadarious is on the board.  Several option at wr and rb in rd 2-3 as well.  I think, as many have already alluded to.....much of the draft will be predicated on free agency results.  I expect BPA in an area of need.  If we lose brown and don’t sign another WR, WR could be considered a need based on our offense.  Speed at RB is a need imo.  Off ball LB.  pass rush.  oL. 1tech.  Corner. TE. All depends on what the roster looks like come April 

I don’t expect a WR in the first 3 or 4 rounds unless the value is sky high, even if the release Brown for cap savings and lose McKenzie.  I think that Gabe Davis will step into WR3 role.