Jadeveon Clowney as a UFA

[Patrick Duffy]

1 hour ago, Victory Formation said:

I’d much rather have JJ Watt than Jadeveon Clowney, I assume their price tags will be similar. Although Watt is older and perhaps not as durable, he is capable of a 20 sack season whereas Clowney would be lucky to get you 10 sacks even if the stats aligned for him.

I would too. If could choose between the two and probably would only be a 1 or 2 year type of thing. Think I'd rather have Watt also. Get what he's got left in the tank for a year or two.

[MJS]

He isn't that good and hasn't been for years now. Nobody is willing to pay him, including the Bills. He keeps signing prove it deals and never proves anything.

 

I am not in favor of signing him. And I never have been.

[GunnerBill]

14 hours ago, appoo said:

Clowney is still a disruptive player, even if he doesn't get sacks.

 

https://ftw.usatoday.com/2020/10/jadeveon-clowney-pressures-no-sacks-titans

 

He tends to grade well without those stats. Right now he's a younger version of the current Jerry Hughes.

 

You could do well to get him for about 5M

 

So I think that has definitely been true.... until this season. I have been a big Clowney defender when the "he doesn't do anything" crowd get going and when you get into the advanced numbers they have always told a different story to the sack numbers alone. 

 

In 2018, his final season in Houston, Clowney played 15 games and he had 48 pressures, 21 QB hits and finished with 9 sacks (plus 21 tackles for loss). Compare it to say Khalil Mack that year who had 47 pressures, only 18 QB hits but finished with 12.5 sacks (and 10 tackles for loss). Looking purely at sack numbers you'd go "oh Mack was much more impactful than Clowney in 2018" but actually when you really dig into it they had pretty similar seasons and Mack was a candidate for DPOTY.

 

in 2019, his season in Seattle, Clowney played 13 games and had 30 pressures, 13 QB hits and only 3 sacks (plus 7 tackles for loss). That wasn't as good as his 2018 season, but still compared well with say, Buffalo's own Jerry Hughes who managed 4.5 sacks but from only 17 pressures and with 9 QB hits (and 6 tackles for loss).

 

As that article in the link suggests both of those years his production in terms of sack numbers did not match his impact in terms of disruption on the game. In 2020 he only played 8 games and he only managed 11 pressures and 6 QB hits and he looked kind of checked out to me. There is still a lot of talent in there.... but you have to get the head right and while the last two years I'd have been in favour of taking that risk.... at this stage I'd pass unless he takes a very cheap deal. If he'd play for $3.5m for 1 year then sure. Much more than that I'd pass. 

 

 

[nucci]

15 hours ago, Dkollidas said:

Had literally almost zero production this year for Tennessee (literally zero sacks in 8 games played). 
 

But he’s an athletic freak who’s been near 10sks multiple times. 
 

McDermott discussed players coming here and “becoming the best version of themselves”.

 

All that being said, could he come to Buffalo on a one year, $2m-$3m prove it deal? He’s an elite talent who’s never been able to put it all together and imo is a perfect fit for the Shaq Lawson role in our defense. 

there's your answer. Always injured and rarely on the field. We have a Shaq Lawson role on this team?

Edited February 4, 2021 by nucci

[essential]

he would absolutely help our run defense.  he will not improve our pass rush as much as you'd think based on his name.  we won't pay him what he wants.

[Royale with Cheese]

47 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

So I think that has definitely been true.... until this season. I have been a big Clowney defender when the "he doesn't do anything" crowd get going and when you get into the advanced numbers they have always told a different story to the sack numbers alone. 

 

In 2018, his final season in Houston, Clowney played 15 games and he had 48 pressures, 21 QB hits and finished with 9 sacks (plus 21 tackles for loss). Compare it to say Khalil Mack that year who had 47 pressures, only 18 QB hits but finished with 12.5 sacks (and 10 tackles for loss). Looking purely at sack numbers you'd go "oh Mack was much more impactful than Clowney in 2018" but actually when you really dig into it they had pretty similar seasons and Mack was a candidate for DPOTY.

 

in 2019, his season in Seattle, Clowney played 13 games and had 30 pressures, 13 QB hits and only 3 sacks (plus 7 tackles for loss). That wasn't as good as his 2018 season, but still compared well with say, Buffalo's own Jerry Hughes who managed 4.5 sacks but from only 17 pressures and with 9 QB hits (and 6 tackles for loss).

 

As that article in the link suggests both of those years his production in terms of sack numbers did not match his impact in terms of disruption on the game. In 2020 he only played 8 games and he only managed 11 pressures and 6 QB hits and he looked kind of checked out to me. There is still a lot of talent in there.... but you have to get the head right and while the last two years I'd have been in favour of taking that risk.... at this stage I'd pass unless he takes a very cheap deal. If he'd play for $3.5m for 1 year then sure. Much more than that I'd pass. 

 

 

 

I'm okay with someone not getting the sack as long as they get legit pressure.  I like our secondary and LB's in coverage if the QB has to hurry his throws....

[dave mcbride]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

So I think that has definitely been true.... until this season. I have been a big Clowney defender when the "he doesn't do anything" crowd get going and when you get into the advanced numbers they have always told a different story to the sack numbers alone. 

 

In 2018, his final season in Houston, Clowney played 15 games and he had 48 pressures, 21 QB hits and finished with 9 sacks (plus 21 tackles for loss). Compare it to say Khalil Mack that year who had 47 pressures, only 18 QB hits but finished with 12.5 sacks (and 10 tackles for loss). Looking purely at sack numbers you'd go "oh Mack was much more impactful than Clowney in 2018" but actually when you really dig into it they had pretty similar seasons and Mack was a candidate for DPOTY.

 

in 2019, his season in Seattle, Clowney played 13 games and had 30 pressures, 13 QB hits and only 3 sacks (plus 7 tackles for loss). That wasn't as good as his 2018 season, but still compared well with say, Buffalo's own Jerry Hughes who managed 4.5 sacks but from only 17 pressures and with 9 QB hits (and 6 tackles for loss).

 

As that article in the link suggests both of those years his production in terms of sack numbers did not match his impact in terms of disruption on the game. In 2020 he only played 8 games and he only managed 11 pressures and 6 QB hits and he looked kind of checked out to me. There is still a lot of talent in there.... but you have to get the head right and while the last two years I'd have been in favour of taking that risk.... at this stage I'd pass unless he takes a very cheap deal. If he'd play for $3.5m for 1 year then sure. Much more than that I'd pass. 

 

 

Yes, this. Clowney was very disruptive in Seattle, and he was terrific in Houston. He may be falling off a cliff now, however. And the lack of bend that good edge rushers all have and which the article points out makes a lot of sense. I'm leery. 

 

This was very eye-opening, by the way: 

 

Edited February 4, 2021 by dave mcbride

[thenorthremembers]

I dont know what it is about this guy that has people pounding the table for him every year?  Is it name recognition, or the fact that he looks intimidating in a football jersey?   He has missed 25% of his games since word go, and has never had more than 9.5 sacks in a season.   No thank you.  

[Orlando Tim]

I don't remember anybody who was ineffective two straight years becoming an impact player again. He was not even average the last two years, he was ineffective. I pass unless literally league minimum

[dave mcbride]

6 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

I dont know what it is about this guy that has people pounding the table for him every year?  Is it name recognition, or the fact that he looks intimidating in a football jersey?   He has missed 25% of his games since word go, and has never had more than 9.5 sacks in a season.   No thank you.  

The piece GunnerBill links to above is excellent. I recommend it. 

Edited February 4, 2021 by dave mcbride

[appoo]

13 hours ago, 97bills said:

No more jerry Hughes types please. Sacks and QB hits makes for fumbles and bad decisions jerry Hughes doesn’t do that I think it’s time to move on if we can. 

That's a fair critique

[dave mcbride]

1 minute ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

I don't remember anybody who was ineffective two straight years becoming an impact player again. He was not even average the last two years, he was ineffective. I pass unless literally league minimum

That's not really true with regard to Seattle. He was a disruptive player who affected games there. Last year not so much, though.

[appoo]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

So I think that has definitely been true.... until this season. I have been a big Clowney defender when the "he doesn't do anything" crowd get going and when you get into the advanced numbers they have always told a different story to the sack numbers alone. 

 

In 2018, his final season in Houston, Clowney played 15 games and he had 48 pressures, 21 QB hits and finished with 9 sacks (plus 21 tackles for loss). Compare it to say Khalil Mack that year who had 47 pressures, only 18 QB hits but finished with 12.5 sacks (and 10 tackles for loss). Looking purely at sack numbers you'd go "oh Mack was much more impactful than Clowney in 2018" but actually when you really dig into it they had pretty similar seasons and Mack was a candidate for DPOTY.

 

in 2019, his season in Seattle, Clowney played 13 games and had 30 pressures, 13 QB hits and only 3 sacks (plus 7 tackles for loss). That wasn't as good as his 2018 season, but still compared well with say, Buffalo's own Jerry Hughes who managed 4.5 sacks but from only 17 pressures and with 9 QB hits (and 6 tackles for loss).

 

As that article in the link suggests both of those years his production in terms of sack numbers did not match his impact in terms of disruption on the game. In 2020 he only played 8 games and he only managed 11 pressures and 6 QB hits and he looked kind of checked out to me. There is still a lot of talent in there.... but you have to get the head right and while the last two years I'd have been in favour of taking that risk.... at this stage I'd pass unless he takes a very cheap deal. If he'd play for $3.5m for 1 year then sure. Much more than that I'd pass. 

 

 

Yea, excellent point. I hadn't realized he was so checked out. I think 5M would be the cutoff for me (Edge defenders tend to be really expensive), but anything more and I think you're using too much cap for someone who's such an enigma.

20 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I'm okay with someone not getting the sack as long as they get legit pressure.  I like our secondary and LB's in coverage if the QB has to hurry his throws....

It's an interesting philosophical discussion.

 

One of the ways college teams counter elite programs with blue chip recruited defenders, is with tempo. Not just how fast you snap, but how quickly you release the ball. When a QB is throwing the ball in less than 3 seconds, getting a sack is almost out the question.

 

I've been noticing some of that show in the NFL these days.  When that happens, just moving him off his base and delaying him half a second is basically a win, and that's where someone like Jerry Hughes adds a ton of value. Guys who win their matchup in the first 2 seconds.

 

It's an evolving game, and we might need better metrics.

[hjnick]

2 hours ago, TheBeaneBandit said:

My bottom line is 5M with 250k per sack bonuses built in.

Exactly what i was thinking.  Low base salary and a sack bonus.

[Rc2catch]

It’s not officially offseason until we get 

 

 

Sign Clowney ✅ 

Sign Ziggy Ansah 

Grade my mock draft 

What if we drafted/signed ??? ✅ 

My free agent wish list ✅ 

Edited February 4, 2021 by Rc2catch

[LABILLBACKER]

15 hours ago, Freddie's Dead said:

Clowney and Watt.  GIT 'R' DUNNNNN!!!!!

Clowney & Watt for a combined 10 M. 1 year deal each $5M. Not a dime more. Rotate these 2 with Jerry. Say goodbye to the others.

[Nextmanup]

16 hours ago, Dkollidas said:

Had literally almost zero production this year for Tennessee (literally zero sacks in 8 games played). 
 

But he’s an athletic freak who’s been near 10sks multiple times. 
 

McDermott discussed players coming here and “becoming the best version of themselves”.

 

All that being said, could he come to Buffalo on a one year, $2m-$3m prove it deal? He’s an elite talent who’s never been able to put it all together and imo is a perfect fit for the Shaq Lawson role in our defense. 

You're mixing up what you know about his past with the present, and assuming he is the same player he always was.

He's not.

 

Hard pass.

 

 

Edited February 4, 2021 by Nextmanup

[DJB]

Like I said a year ago when this came up. 

 

Most overrated player in the NFL. No thanks

[BornAgainBillsFan]

There's no way Clowney would come here. McDermott has the rep for not putting up with malingerers.

[Houston's #1 Bills Fan]

18 hours ago, njbuff said:

Will Clowney's name just ever go away?

I could start a new Duke thread.....

[dpberr]

He's been average since Craig Fitzgerald left the Texans as their S&C coach and I think the rest of the league knows it. 

 

He probably joins the Giants because that's where Fitzgerald got a job in 2020. 

 

 

Edited February 4, 2021 by dpberr

[Augie]

21 hours ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

I think many of us predicted he would yet again produce next to nothing in Tennessee and we were proven right. 
 

This is a production business. He can’t even get a single sack? Something doesn’t add up. 

 

Wait! But did you not see that one play in college where he was unblocked and made a name for himself???  

 

I agree, pay for production, not a familiar name. Zero sacks doesn’t mean he’s worthless, but he’s not what HE thinks he is. And therein lies the problem. I would not be opposed if he were cheap and played his role, but I’m not impressed just because of his name. One year prove it might work best for everyone if he’s willing to swallow his ego. Might be his only option. Surprise!

[Capco]

21 hours ago, Seoulofstone said:

I'm intrigued to see his market. It won't be 3 mil or 18 mil. I think someone will talk themselves into giving him 10. 

 

Same.  I see him signing anywhere from 8-10 because he's the classic type of person that gets overpaid.  

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

1 hour ago, Augie said:

 

Wait! But did you not see that one play in college where he was unblocked and made a name for himself???  

 

I agree, pay for production, not a familiar name. Zero sacks doesn’t mean he’s worthless, but he’s not what HE thinks he is. And therein lies the problem. I would not be opposed if he were cheap and played his role, but I’m not impressed just because of his name. One year prove it might work best for everyone if he’s willing to swallow his ego. Might be his only option. Surprise!

isn’t it amazing that everyone remembers that hit against Michigan? I saw it live, since I loosely follow Michigan football. Vincent Smith was the RB and he was like 5’6.” Clowney came unblocked at full speed. Wasn’t pretty. 
 

in terms of clowney’s production, you can sort of justify a down year here or there. He has had two pretty good years in his career, and those were with Houston.  Everything else has been meh. If you want a guy that can get you 3 sacks per year, you can sign a Mario Addison at a much lower price tag, not Clowney.

[Einstein's Dog]

I would love to see the FO bring in Clowney!  He'll never come cheaper.  He's an athletic freak who might be really motivated.  The Bills culture and change of scenery might reignite his career.

 

People are talking paying a Murphy/Addison type price for Clowney?  Are you kidding me? 

 

Sacks aren't the only thing in life.  Sure it's a great stat, but you've got to account for a lot of other factors and watching the game helps show that.  Remember how Chris Jones had no sacks for KC in the Bills game?  Yeah, I wouldn't hate having that bum either.

 

[billsfan89]

I wouldn't hate Clowney on a one year mid level or lower deal. But I would prefer to try and trade for a more impactful player. But the options might be slim and Clowney on a affordable deal could make sense.