What are your ideas to fix the Bills' running game for next year?

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

How much padding is there in the seat of football pants?  🤔

Hey, New England Patriots exploited the rules for years.  You show me where 'blow darts' are mentioned in the rule book! 🥸

[WideNine]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Question: how exactly is success rate defined, and where does one find league stats on this?

 

As far as the Bills running game is concerned, don't you find it a bit of a conundrum? 

 

Yes, overall, our running game is below league average.  4.2 ypa is #19 in the league.

 

But let's look deeper.  We have 1723 rush yards on 411 attempts, 4.2 ypa. 

 

1) Taking out Josh Allen's contributions, we have 1310 rush yards on 296 attempts - dead last in the league for both, I'm pretty sure even subtracting other QB contributions (bottom 10 rushing teams don't have rushing QBs).  So at least part of our problem is, sheer volume.  We ran extremely infrequently.

 

That begs the question: Why?

 

2) When we do take out Josh's contributions, we find that our other backs combined for 1310 yds on 296 attempts, or slightly above league average at 4.43 YPA. 

 

3) When we look at our YPG (including Josh), we are below league average at 104 ypg.  Yet we have 6 games where we were well above league average of 119 ypg, and in 3 of them we were above the average YPG of the 5-top rushing teams.  Clearly at times, when we decided to make it a focus, we could run well.  And these games were scattered throughout the season and involved different lines: Dawkins-Boettger-Feliciano-Winter-Williams; Dawkins-Feliciano-Morse-Winters-Williams; Dawkins-Boettger-Morse-Feliciano-Williams.  

 

4) our overall run statistics were certainly impacted by Daboll's team-specific game plans.  There are games when he decided "we're going to pass until you prove you can stop it".  There are games when he decided "we're going to run until you prove you can stop it".  And there are "the rest". "the rest" were below average: remove 3 best, 3 worst, average drops from 104 to 100 ypg.

 

5) Ave YPG in first 6 games of the regular season: 95.  Ave YPG in games 8-17: 117

 

What to make of this?

1) When we focused on it, we could run well against average or below average run D (Broncos and Pats below ave, Chargers ave)

2) We could not run worth crap against the best DLs or run Ds.  Film analysis that's out there says a lot of this is blocking and the run got stuffed in the backfield

3) Some of the difference is the changing composition of the OL during the season:

 a) We did not have a good run game with Ford at guard. Weeks 1-6 with Ford: 95 ypg.  Correlation is not causation, but film analysis he's seen letting the DL off his block, badly at times.  If Beane thinks Ford is a starter at guard AND he wants to improve the run game, either Ford must improve greatly or he's "pushing a rock uphill".

 b) I think Feliciano made a difference, but the games which included him, also included games where we didn't run at all.  Data don't support

4) to Point 2), part of the run being stuffed in the backfield may be on run play "tells" that allow the DL to key off of it (a lot are crude tells like whether we're under center or not 70% run, I expect there are a bunch more)

 

FWIW

 

 

I too felt that Ford was grading poorly at tackle and guard. Beane stressed that Ford has been playing through multiple injuries.

 

We have to give Beane, his staff, and Ford the benefit of the doubt, but my biggest concerns with Ford have always been his foot speed.

 

His ability to keep moving his feet under him with quick small steps and rely less on leaning and reaching for blocks. Guard places less onus on this controled lateral speed if they are not pulling him, but DTs were still getting him off balance.

 

In fairness to Ford, if he does get into the pads of a DL with good technique, he wins that battle more often than not and can drive him off his spot. He is strong.

 

He should have to win back his spot from Ike or Mongo. If both are still here.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 1/25/2021 at 6:00 PM, Dr Krentist said:

 

From this analysis it seems like it's more OL play than RB.

 

Would just like to add here for those who don't know, Erik Turner played RB.  He actually may be in his best lane breaking down run plays.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

9 minutes ago, WideNine said:

 

I too felt that Ford was grading poorly at tackle and guard. Beane stressed that Ford has been playing through multiple injuries.

 

Just the statement that "he's played more games injured than he has healthy" is of concern after 2 years.

I get it that the guy is a gamer, but Milano is unquestionably a very good player when he's on the field, still the concern raised with him is "not healthy enough"

 

But I don't believe he was ever listed as having an arm or shoulder injury this year after off-season surgery. 

 

It's pretty clear from the Cover1 breakdown linked here and others that hand and arm placement are a big issue for him in run blocking, at least as a guard.  He's either not quick enough, or he doesn't have the technique to cope with NFL DLmen, or both.

 

At this point, is there anyone who feels if the question is "who do we have on the roster who can lock down one of the guard slots and maul defenders in run blocking?" the answer is "Cody Ford"?

 

 

2 hours ago, Steve Billieve said:

I honestly don't understand why we even need a running game when Allen automatically challenges defenses with his legs. I say we keep only pass pro linemen.

 

Strangely enough McDermott Beane and other experts appear to disagree with you

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 1/25/2021 at 12:38 PM, dneveu said:

 

I think either of our backs would thrive in an actual rushing offense.  Not sure if its just - not creative?  But we basically have like 3 running plays.  Inside and outside zone (with occasionally mckenzie in motion), and if we're in shotgun its read option (with occasional motion, or RPO concepts).  No pitches, no power, no pin and pull, misdirection, counters, traps... anything.  

 

Suggest you watch Chopping Wood, particularly the NE and Chargers segments, "plays to be had" on Cover1, etc. We have tried to run most of those plays (not power).  Counter trey, draw, pin and pull.... theyr'e all there.  Also earlier in the season we were trying to run them from shotgun.

 

On 1/25/2021 at 12:53 PM, Draconator said:

• There is a open line of communication between Buffalo and Carolina. 

 

Is that even still true?

 

On 1/25/2021 at 4:16 PM, BillsShredder83 said:

Stolen from a post in another topic, but I like the idea of cutting Morse and sliding Feliciano over, to save $, keep the nastiness out there, and reinvest that money on the line. Dawkins and Williams can stay outside, and plug in two upgrades at guard.

 

 

I think the Seattle game OL decisions were a question: "OK, we run block better with Mongo at center.  Do we pass block as well or better?"  Since we gave up a season-high 7 sacks  (2nd highest was 4 vs LAR and Donald) and IIRC, they weren't coverage sacks plus at least one shotgun snap IIRC where I said "Damn, glad our QB is 6'5", I think the answer was a resounding "No" and Morse showed up under center next week.

 

 

[ColoradoBills]

On 1/28/2021 at 10:06 AM, GETTOTHE50 said:

Go to rehab and actually work on the running game. 

 

I think the Bills were so excited and addicted with the development of JA17 that they said screw the run.

 

They were like a bunch of crack addicts, where JA passes was the crack. They loved what they were seeing, doing, and ultimately couldn’t put down the pipe. The Bills organization hadn’t felt this way in years so they rode it out as far as they could before OD-ing.

 

I don’t blame them. Hell, we were all riding the JA white lightning. But it’s time we all go back to rehab and learn that the key to life and success is balance. It’s time we put down the pipe, or atleast not hit it 45x per game. 
 

 

 

Great post.

Also they didn't have the full off season time last year.

Bills need either a speed back OR a big bruiser and they should bring that in for competition this year.

 

The big thing is game day.  Having only Singletary and Moss as game day RBs because of Jones is a mistake IMO.

The big thing to look for this off season is a "Jones replacement".  I want 3 RBs that can contribute where needed on game day.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 1/28/2021 at 1:22 PM, Logic said:

I found this deep dive into the Bills’ run game by Mike Tanier to be really great.

 

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/upgrading-the-buffalo-bills-offense-running-backs-do-matter/
 

Tanier essentially points out that Moss and Singletary aren’t the problem, and that the run game configuration and play calling is primarily to blame, with a bit of blame going to the blocking as well. He does NOT believe that spending premium assets on another running back is warranted. Nor does he necessarily think we need an O-line overhaul. He seems to believe Daboll is the primary culprit.

 

Lots of great stuff in there that I don’t want to copy and paste too much of, as I’m on a phone and it’s cumbersome. I recommend reading it.

 

“The Bills don’t have to bust out the 1977 tactics or trade up to draft Clemson’s Travis Etienne to improve their running game. In fact, they should not do either of those things. They should, however, rethink the configuration of their running game on first downs to improve their efficiency. That includes whether the box is stacked or not.“

 

Definitely a worthwhile read for his perspective, but IMO, I think he's getting sucked into the Analytics forest and never looking at the trees.

He lost me right here:

Quote

Let’s absolve the Bills’ offensive line of any blame before we continue. Football Outsiders ranked them 15th in Adjusted Line Yards. It’s not spectacular, but certainly not a problem. Tape-based traffic-light evaluation systems also see no major issues with the Bills’ line. And they pass the eye test — Dion Dawkins, Mitch Morse, Daryl Williams, and the others form a line that most teams would be thrilled to assemble.

 

Cover1 (who knows a thing bout run schemes) and Eric Wood (who knows a thing about run blocking) have both broken down plays that worked, and plays that didn't work.  The run blocking was most definitely a problem at times and did NOT pass the eye test.  At other times, it was fine.  The problem is, the times it did not came against the better run-stopping or just overall DLs in the league.

 

There are times when, to Daboll's own admission, "I need to design better plays the players can execute".  But part of that is plays THESE players can execute, and at some point, you need players who can execute a wider vocabulary of plays.  I wouldn't want to absolve Daboll of needing to make better play choice decisions, but if the OL can't block for outside zone to the L much less up the middle, there's not a lot of vocabulary words.

 

Plenty of blame to go around IMO.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

New Youtube video from Cover1 just dropped:

"Bills Running Game Issues"

 

 

[WideNine]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Just the statement that "he's played more games injured than he has healthy" is of concern after 2 years.

I get it that the guy is a gamer, but Milano is unquestionably a very good player when he's on the field, still the concern raised with him is "not healthy enough"

 

But I don't believe he was ever listed as having an arm or shoulder injury this year after off-season surgery. 

 

It's pretty clear from the Cover1 breakdown linked here and others that hand and arm placement are a big issue for him in run blocking, at least as a guard.  He's either not quick enough, or he doesn't have the technique to cope with NFL DLmen, or both.

 

At this point, is there anyone who feels if the question is "who do we have on the roster who can lock down one of the guard slots and maul defenders in run blocking?" the answer is "Cody Ford"?

 

 

 

Strangely enough McDermott Beane and other experts appear to disagree with you

 

I also believe that well-intentioned competitive players that try to do too much or play with poor technique get injured more often.

 

If you find yourself in poor position on the field about to lose your battle on a play, you are more apt to do something that strains, sprains, tears, or breaks something.

 

Aka Edmunds hitting the wrong gap, yet trying to catch the guy he missed with an arm as he is flying by him...there goes the shoulder.

 

That is why teams stress trust and each player doing their 1/11th. If guys start playing put of position to compensate for the missed assignments of others the injuries mount up.

 

Something to objectively consider when you have oft-injured players. Unavoidable accidents or are they often out of position with poor technique.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[LABILLBACKER]

3 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Great post.

Also they didn't have the full off season time last year.

Bills need either a speed back OR a big bruiser and they should bring that in for competition this year.

 

The big thing is game day.  Having only Singletary and Moss as game day RBs because of Jones is a mistake IMO.

The big thing to look for this off season is a "Jones replacement".  I want 3 RBs that can contribute where needed on game day.

It is a mistake and a stupid use of the 53. I'm so tired of stashing a RB for only ST use.  80% of kickoffs end in touchbacks.  Most punts are "fair catch". You telling me Yeldon couldn't have played some on ST? Ridiculous. As Hapless pointed out we have to find the right OL combo to maximize our running lanes. Sure there will be teams (defenses) we can get by passing 90%. But KC is the benchmark.  If we ever want to sniff a SB we must run on them. Even if it's just 30-35% of the plays. Andy exploited this fact. Flood the secondary and blitz JA. It worked brilliantly. 

[ColoradoBills]

1 hour ago, LABILLBACKER said:

It is a mistake and a stupid use of the 53. I'm so tired of stashing a RB for only ST use.  80% of kickoffs end in touchbacks.  Most punts are "fair catch". You telling me Yeldon couldn't have played some on ST? Ridiculous. As Hapless pointed out we have to find the right OL combo to maximize our running lanes. Sure there will be teams (defenses) we can get by passing 90%. But KC is the benchmark.  If we ever want to sniff a SB we must run on them. Even if it's just 30-35% of the plays. Andy exploited this fact. Flood the secondary and blitz JA. It worked brilliantly. 

 

Jones had a total of 6 Combined Tackles all season.  I'm sure other players could of gotten most of those.

[freddyjj]

11 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

Actually, Ritcher was a first round draft pick by Buffalo in 1980 by HC Chuck Knox (who was an O linemen in college himself) sat for a few seasons behind LG Reggie McKenzie who was part of the "Electric Co" for OJ. 

 

How good was that line when your first round pick doesn't start? 

 

McKenzie played 11 seasons for Buffalo and Ritcher 15 seasons. The Bills had Ruben Brown and recently Richie Incognito who were also all pro's at LG. 

 

The Bills need to find some of those types for the line. 

my bad I meant Ritcher started all the years Frerotte was here

[Ethan in Cleveland]

1. Cut Morse

2. Bring back Feliciano at C and Williams at OT

3. Ford at LG

4. Boetgger at RG

5. Moss is the starter with 65% of the snaps; Singletary gets 30%

6. Draft a pass catching RB in the 4th round

7. Draft the long term replacement at C in round 1-3

[Hapless Bills Fan]

9 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

1. Cut Morse

2. Bring back Feliciano at C and Williams at OT

3. Ford at LG

4. Boetgger at RG

5. Moss is the starter with 65% of the snaps; Singletary gets 30%

6. Draft a pass catching RB in the 4th round

7. Draft the long term replacement at C in round 1-3

 

Serious questions:

1) We have to maintain the pass protection as well and above all maintain good snaps. How do you feel moving Mongo to C impacts this, and why?

2) There are a bunch of film breakdowns out there of Ford's play at LG this season.  First 6 games with Ford at LG, we averaged. 95 yds on the ground.  What is there on film or in statistics that leads you to believe Ford is the answer at LG?

3) Boettger at LG seemed good at pass protection, but what did you see in the run game that inclines you to believe he would constitute an improvement at RG?

 

Remember the question here is how to improve the run game, not how to move the pieces around and get rid of Morse.

[Chicharito]

Any rb that has quickness and speed will do. Singletary and moss both run like they have cinder blocks as feet! Our run game is based on inside rushing attack and neither can hit the holes fast enough. 

[JakeFrommStateFarm]

You need a true 3 down back that can catch passes out of the backfield and keep him in for all 3 downs.

 

This adds to the element of surprise in the defense isn't sure whether your going to run or pass.

 

I'm thinking someone like Jonathan Taylor.

 

Daboll also needs to use this back in more checkdowns.

 

You also need a true pass catching tight end thats an offensive weapon. This TE needs to develop a real synergy with Josh. Think of a Ertz or a rookie like him.

 

This will take a LB out of the box in pass coverage opening up the running game.

 

So more element of surprise with 3 down back and true pass catching TE

[Hapless Bills Fan]

25 minutes ago, JakeFrommStateFarm said:

You need a true 3 down back that can catch passes out of the backfield and keep him in for all 3 downs.

 

Buffalo ran a total of 8 snaps this season where we didn't have a RB on the field.  I think I saw Motor split wide a few times, but not often.

Interestingly, 3 of them were on 3rd down and 1 was a successful run play.

You can rummage about here if you're curious.

 

25 minutes ago, JakeFrommStateFarm said:

This adds to the element of surprise in the defense isn't sure whether your going to run or pass.

 

I believe there was a distinct lack of surprise as to whether we'd execute a run play with our backs, but I'm not sure that keeping a back in (or not) or inability to catch passes out of the backfield was part of it.   I think that formation (under center vs shotgun) and down and distance had a lot more to do with the predictability. 

 

25 minutes ago, JakeFrommStateFarm said:

Daboll also needs to use this back in more checkdowns.

 

Do you watch much all-22 or film breakdown stuff?

 

I'm asking because when I do, Daboll almost always has a checkdown option to a back or TE (or both) designed into the play.  And most of the time they are open enough for substantial YAC.

 

The problem isn't Daboll, it's partly the way Allen thinks.  I've never seen a QB more reluctant to throw to a wide-open checkdown receiver.  What we don't know is why?  Is it that he's still looking for the kill shot?   Does he still not trust himself to make those throws?  Does he not trust Knox and Singletary to catch them?

 

25 minutes ago, JakeFrommStateFarm said:

You also need a true pass catching tight end thats an offensive weapon. This TE needs to develop a real synergy with Josh. Think of a Ertz or a rookie like him.

 

Here is what I think your valid point is: we have neither a pass catching RB nor a pass catching TE that scares a defense, nor that gets utilized enough when perhaps they could.

[njbuff]

Trade for Zeke Elliott. 😁

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 1/30/2021 at 1:29 PM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Definitely a worthwhile read for his perspective, but IMO, I think he's getting sucked into the Analytics forest and never looking at the trees.

He lost me right here:

 

Cover1 (who knows a thing bout run schemes) and Eric Wood (who knows a thing about run blocking) have both broken down plays that worked, and plays that didn't work.  The run blocking was most definitely a problem at times and did NOT pass the eye test.  At other times, it was fine.  The problem is, the times it did not came against the better run-stopping or just overall DLs in the league.

 

There are times when, to Daboll's own admission, "I need to design better plays the players can execute".  But part of that is plays THESE players can execute, and at some point, you need players who can execute a wider vocabulary of plays.  I wouldn't want to absolve Daboll of needing to make better play choice decisions, but if the OL can't block for outside zone to the L much less up the middle, there's not a lot of vocabulary words.

 

Plenty of blame to go around IMO.

 

To this point, some run play clips from Erik Turner's twitter showing how crap blocking impacted success.

Exhibit A.  I don't know what Knox thinks he's supposed to be doing, but I think the guy who designed the play thinks he's supposed to be blocking Wilkins or Baker

 

 

When the blocking is so bad that the former RB tweeting the play isn't sure what it was supposed to be, that's a problem

 

This is Feliciano getting totally blown up. Bear in mind we don't know whose error it was.

 

And last but not least to my question about Power vs Zone runs, Turner confirms that it was NOT part of our run game this year.

However, I'm surprised at how much of the run game it was last season at 60%!

 

 

I watch all-22 and try to figure out the blocking scheme on run plays (especially blown up run plays).  I also watch film breakdowns.

 

I can tell you that anyone who starts out an analysis of our run game with "Let’s absolve the Bills’ offensive line of any blame before we continue." is living in a Falling Credibility Zone.  I don't know what they're watching, but actual game tape of 2020 Bills run plays is Not That Thing.

[The Firebaugh Kid]

Those all 22 videos are cringeworthy. Disjointed awful execution. 

[Solomon Grundy]

17 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

1. Cut Morse

2. Bring back Feliciano at C and Williams at OT

3. Ford at LG

4. Boetgger at RG

5. Moss is the starter with 65% of the snaps; Singletary gets 30%

6. Draft a pass catching RB in the 4th round

7. Draft the long term replacement at C in round 1-3

Bills don’t have a 4th round pick this year as of this conversation. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

More from Erik Turner (Cover1) on Bills run game last year vs this year

 

 

If you're interested (as I am) in what went wrong with the Bills run game this season and how to fix it, IMO right now Erik Turner's twitter feed is a must-see, including data back-and-forth with Dean Kindig (Astro)

 

Just a lot of good points to ponder

[LABILLBACKER]

I'm not saying I want Gore back or Singletary anchoring our run game but we were more effective in 2019. Whatever Daboll quit doing this season he better figure it out. Shuffle the OL, change some blocking techniques, draft someone who's not 4.65....

[Sherlock Holmes]

On 1/25/2021 at 12:49 PM, Logic said:

Perhaps it's too early for some to start talking about next season. If that's the case for you, I understand.

As for me, I'm already excited about the potential of the 2021 Buffalo Bills.

It was quite clear watching last night's game -- and watching the entire season unfold, really -- that the Bills could DESPERATELY use a good run game. 

The question remains, though: Just HOW do you go about addressing the running game? Buffalo recently spent third round picks on Singletary and Moss. I doubt they're ready to give up on either of them, nor should they. The Bills usually only dress three running backs on game day, with the third being a special teams contributor. Neither Singletary nor Moss contribute much on special teams.

So what do you do?

Do you draft another running back? If so, you'd probably better draft one earlier than round three. If Singletary and Moss aren't getting it done, what makes you think another third round or later running back will?

Are you willing to part with such premium draft capital for a running back? Do you focus on replacing a guard or two, or the center? What do you do? 

Knowing how aggressively Beane attacks roster weaknesses, and how much McDermott values the run game, I trust that Buffalo will actively seek to address this problem. But in the meantime, how do YOU suggest we go about it? This question does not seem to have any easy answers.

 

Trade for McCaffrey

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

On 1/30/2021 at 2:13 PM, ColoradoBills said:

 

Great post.

Also they didn't have the full off season time last year.

Bills need either a speed back OR a big bruiser and they should bring that in for competition this year.

 

The big thing is game day.  Having only Singletary and Moss as game day RBs because of Jones is a mistake IMO.

The big thing to look for this off season is a "Jones replacement".  I want 3 RBs that can contribute where needed on game day.

 

Always liked burkhead for this (they used sammy morris and others in a similar role).  Guy plays special teams, and is an adequate running back.  The idea is - oh todays a day where i can use moss power, or singletary shiftiness, or XXX speed.  One guys the primary 3rd down guy, but if they're rolling with extra DBs - you hammer them with power etc.  

 

[Dukestreetking]

On 1/25/2021 at 6:17 PM, Dukestreetking said:

Many good, interesting ideas here.

 

But I'll go totally off-the-board and suggest putting Zimmer in as a big (and big speed) back.

 

I mean, did you see the wheels on that guy chasing down the TH 70 yarder? Holy crap he's a  frickin burner of a DT.

 

(I'm kidding, kidding...on the run game piece)

 

 Ok, so I've looked at this play multiple times. Conclusion: maybe I wasn't kidding!! Look at the amazing 15-20+ yd burst Zimmer had on the back end.

 

Well, obviously I'm delusional, but the hurt lingers, and it's clearly clouding my judgement!

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

11 minutes ago, Dukestreetking said:

 Ok, so I've looked at this play multiple times. Conclusion: maybe I wasn't kidding!! Look at the amazing 15-20+ yd burst Zimmer had on the back end.

 

Well, obviously I'm delusional, but the hurt lingers, and it's clearly clouding my judgement!

 

 

It wasn't a 1-timer either.  He was pacing Taron Johnson all the way down the field on his pick-6.  Guy has wheels.

[OldTimer1960]

On 1/25/2021 at 12:54 PM, Nextmanup said:

Hopefully they don't dedicate much in the way of resources to a "running game."

 

Run plays, except in very specific situations, are just a wasted down.

 

 

Titans beg to differ and the roughly 250 yards on the ground they gave up to KC in regular season sure looked important.

[FireChans]

I wonder if Marlon Mack could be a target. Young player, coming off an injury and likely lost his job already

[OldTimer1960]

18 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I'm not saying I want Gore back or Singletary anchoring our run game but we were more effective in 2019. Whatever Daboll quit doing this season he better figure it out. Shuffle the OL, change some blocking techniques, draft someone who's not 4.65....

A 4.3 RB would still have been hit in the backfield behind this OL.  
 

I do think (hope?) that injury and resultant position juggling really hampered the OL.

[RichRiderBills]

Resign/retain Williams

Replace Mongo with top FA Guard on the market. (Scherff not tagged)

Draft RB (round 1 preferred) (like Hariss or Etienne)

Draft G/C (Round 2 preferred to play LG or push Morse)

Above in Round 1-2 or 3

 

I like the idea of trading back in Round one a few slots to pick up an extra pick

 

 

 

Edited February 1, 2021 by RichRiderBills

[BADOLBILZ]

18 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

More from Erik Turner (Cover1) on Bills run game last year vs this year

 

 

If you're interested (as I am) in what went wrong with the Bills run game this season and how to fix it, IMO right now Erik Turner's twitter feed is a must-see, including data back-and-forth with Dean Kindig (Astro)

 

Just a lot of good points to ponder

 

 

I have been surprised at the volume of the narrative that "it's a RB issue".     It's the inability to block the plays being called.    And it's complicated.   Morse is simply outstanding in pass pro but utterly useless as a run blocker.   So short of having at least one great guard they are probably going to lose the point of attack on the inside run game if he is out there.   Feliciano is a very good run blocker as a center......the better center overall IMO....but he's about zero yards above replacement wrt blocking in general as a guard.

 

I also find it amusing that people are just now getting around to noticing that Daboll isn't a genius.  

 

I think his answer to why they changed the run game design so much would have something to do with how the blocking tied into the passing game........which was different this year with a superstar WR in the lineup.   Ultimately, the goal was to get the run yards(and then some) in the passing game.    They really didn't need the run game most weeks so he could afford to focus on that aspect.   To me, not being able to do both is a shortcoming on his part.   This is supposed to be a Patriots-esque system but that system was able to be multiple when needed.   Maybe(hopefully) with another year of experience in the offense they can take that step next year but there is a reason why so many teams are going with these Shanahan type systems.........they don't get caught up in the bad habit of using the dink-dunk pass game as a substitute for the run game.         

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

I have been surprised at the volume of the narrative that "it's a RB issue".     It's the inability to block the plays being called.    And it's complicated.   Morse is simply outstanding in pass pro but utterly useless as a run blocker. 

 

I don't think this narrative is correct that Morse is utterly useless as a run blocker.  Morse is not a power blocker.  But when used correctly, his athleticism makes him effective as a blocker in the run game.  3 examples (all from last year):

 

 

 

I think the Bills problems on the inside of the OL unquestionably impacted the run game this year, and it hurt us (in the run game) to part with Spain.

 

I have no opinion on whether or not Daboll is a genius, but his pass play designs seem to elicit admiration from knowledgeable folk, and his run plays seem well designed albeit not always able to be well executed.  There may be something to be said

 

What I do have an opinion about is that our play selection has a giant "tell" in our formation.  70% of our under-center snaps are run plays, and I'm willing to guess there are further tells.  Daboll has tried to run from the shotgun, and it's actually been more effective on a per-attempt basis (5.1 vs 3.5 ypa) possibly due to shock - 75% of our shotgun snaps are pass plays.  This was true although not quite as extreme last year as well - 66% pass from shotgun.

 

[Figster]

On 1/29/2021 at 8:03 AM, maryland-bills-fan said:

OK, here is another thing that the Bills should be anticipating.

 

Allen and our passing game was great for most of this year.  But the following type of move: countermove always happens.  We put out a very accurate passer and 2 great receivers and 1-2 good receivers.   What happened in the KC game is that KC basically doubled up on our best two, AND put good quality DB on the other two.  6 good DB and 5 in the box.  Plus, they put on a heavy pass rush, with 4 or 5 rushing and no gap control.  They shut down our offence.

 

Right now, most people agree that we should build our team around what is needed to beat KC, who are the biggest barrier to getting to the SB.  BUT do not forget that for Miami, the Pats and Jests, we are their first obstacle preventing them from getting to the playoffs and also, we play them twice a year.   Expect them to build their teams to take us on.  I will be interested to see how they draft DB's in 2021.  Miami has 4 picks in the first round and can easily change that into 5 + by dealing their #3 pick. 

 

With that expectation, we have to get "ahead of the curve" and their plans as well.  We are too one dimensional and they can work on stopping that.

 

 

On 1/29/2021 at 8:35 AM, Shaw66 said:

What do I know?  I'm just a fan, but I'd offer this, Logic:

 

Scheme and personnel.  That's what football is about.  

 

I don't think the Bills have been creative enough in the running game.  I don't know anything about how to design a running game, but what the Bills did running this season looked pretty plain vanilla to me.  I think the Bills weren't good at misdirection, weren't good in the outside zone blocking schemes, and weren't good at attacking the defensive fronts presented to them.   Yes, they ran an occasional jet sweep, but when the Bills do that stuff it looks like a gimmick they've inserted into an otherwise bland running game.  The style of the running game is not flashy or creative.

 

So much for scheme.  As for personnel, speed is the obvious missing characteristic.  McKenzie was their speed back, and he was just a gadget player.  Maybe the Bills should have tried running him out of the backfield, do quick pitches to him, and maybe even letting him hit it up the middle on misdirection plays.   Just as McDermott has been clear that the passing game has to be able to stretch the field vertically, the running game needs to stretch it horizontally, and Singletary and Moss don't have the speed to do that.  

 

And some of the problem has to be on the offensive line.  If Morse is going to be your center, he's fine for the pulling game, but power isn't his style.  He needs to be paired with a couple of quick but tough guards.  Feliciano is one.   Is Ford the other?   I don't know.  Are Dawkins and Williams the guys to get it done at tackle?  I don't know. 

 

Point is, everything in the running game has to get better. 

 back to back posts that help explain why Buffalo's run game was below average in the grand scheme of things IMO.

On 1/29/2021 at 9:25 AM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Have you looked at some of the stuff where people do break down the run game?  (Linked upthread)

 

I put out for your consideration, stripped out of longer posts:

 When we made up our minds to run later in the season, we ran (Patriots, Broncos, Chargers, Steelers).  Why is this, if we lack well-designed plays?

 

 

This is true, and it limits the design of the rushing plays.  Early after a game where we tried to rush and got stuffed, Daboll said something to the effect of "I need to design plays that the players can execute". 

 

When you lack an O-line that can power-block, and you lack a speed back who can stretch the field horizontally, it's kind of tough to be too creative with run game design.  Your vocabulary is limited.

 

 

TBD was lucky enough once upon a time to have a Bills historian I like to call her that was very adapt at steering fellow patrons in the right direction. From an X's and O's standpoint Hapless takes it to a whole new level IMO.

 

We had this same discussion in another thread. My beliefs are Daboll didn't care enough about running the football because many of the teams Buffalo faced on the schedule were more vulnerable to the Daboll/ Allen high powered passing attack. Along with in some cases better equipped to stop the run. Josh Allen goes for big chunks of yardage at a time and when your completion percentage is high its practically unstoppable IMO.

 

Myself personally, as its been well pointed out. Buffalo's inability to run the football has more to do with putting more time and emphasis on one of the best passing attacks in the league more then anything IMO. To me bringing a home run hitter into the lineup at the RB positiion helps change the perception, confidence and overall strategy when game planning opponents in my humble oppinion. 

[BADOLBILZ]

17 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I don't think this narrative is correct that Morse is utterly useless as a run blocker.  Morse is not a power blocker.  But when used correctly, his athleticism makes him effective as a blocker in the run game.  3 examples (all from last year):

 

 

 

I think the Bills problems on the inside of the OL unquestionably impacted the run game this year, and it hurt us (in the run game) to part with Spain.

 

I have no opinion on whether or not Daboll is a genius, but his pass play designs seem to elicit admiration from knowledgeable folk, and his run plays seem well designed albeit not always able to be well executed.  There may be something to be said

 

What I do have an opinion about is that our play selection has a giant "tell" in our formation.  70% of our under-center snaps are run plays, and I'm willing to guess there are further tells.  Daboll has tried to run from the shotgun, and it's actually been more effective on a per-attempt basis (5.1 vs 3.5 ypa) possibly due to shock - 75% of our shotgun snaps are pass plays.  This was true although not quite as extreme last year as well - 66% pass from shotgun.

 

 

 

 

Morse is the Bills most athletic lineman.   If you can get him out in space he can help you run blocking.   But teams know that and actively work to take his ability to get upfield away.   That's how New England concussed him early in the season.   If a team knows what's coming they can engage that center and defeat the scheme.   Morse doesn't have enough of a power game to make teams pay for it.   He's a target out there and IMO it is where all of their running game struggles start.    Shame because he's probably the best pass blocking center in the NFL.

 

As for the people who admire Daboll's play designs so much........that's not surprising........Daboll has always favored the gotcha' plays to having a full service identity as an offense.   Gotcha' plays are fun.   Sam Wyche was fun.........until he didn't have elite talent........and then he was a joke.   Remember Daboll at his 3 previous NFL OC jobs?   He has proven he can get the least out of an offense if given the authority to do so.    Doesn't at all mean he's incompetent.......Wyche nearly won a SB........but we should know what we get with Daboll.  

 

 And as for those opinions........look at the GM's who were recently quoted(anonymously) that Josh Allen had passed Patrick Mahomes.   Oy vey.  That tells you all you need to know about top rated opinions in the NFL.   I'll read the opinions but I use my own two eyes first and foremost.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

48 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

Morse is the Bills most athletic lineman.   If you can get him out in space he can help you run blocking.   But teams know that and actively work to take his ability to get upfield away.

 

We've gone from "utterly useless" to "able to have his ability to get upfield taken away".  Got it.

 

Quote

 That's how New England concussed him early in the season.

 

It's not clear to me exactly how he got concussed (or what exactly that run play was supposed to be) but I thought it looked like a gap run from shotgun (not trying to get Morse out in space) and that the concussion may have occurred when Winters was flung sideways into Morse near the end of the play.

 

Quote

 And as for those opinions........look at the GM's who were recently quoted(anonymously) that Josh Allen had passed Patrick Mahomes.   Oy vey.  That tells you all you need to know about top rated opinions in the NFL.   I'll read the opinions but I use my own two eyes first and foremost.

 

Anonymous quotes are always suspicious, and one can always find fringe opinions to support extreme, click-baiting viewpoints.  Unless one can demonstrate that the same ill-advised anonymous GMs are the ones breaking down Daboll's plays and pointing out where and why they are well-designed, this rather seems like a straw bale here.  The contention was "his pass play designs seem to elicit admiration from knowledgeable folk, and his run plays seem well designed albeit not always able to be well executed." 

 

When someone points out the X's and O's of a play and why it succeeds in creating hesitation and confliction for defenders, one can either see that it's true or it's not.  I can see that it's true much of the time.  I don't see how the clickbait opinions of anonymous GMs tell me anything, much less "all I need to know" about opinions on Daboll's play designs in the NFL.

[noacls]

Creed Humphrey

Rashawn Slater

Wyatt Davis

Liam Eichenberg

Quinn Meinerz

 

Cut Morse to save cap space. Bring back Feliciano as a place holder or backup. Draft some of these guys. Williams will be overpriced for ability. 

[BADOLBILZ]

44 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

We've gone from "utterly useless" to "able to have his ability to get upfield taken away".  Got it.

 

 

It's not clear to me exactly how he got concussed (or what exactly that run play was supposed to be) but I thought it looked like a gap run from shotgun (not trying to get Morse out in space) and that the concussion may have occurred when Winters was flung sideways into Morse near the end of the play.

 

 

Anonymous quotes are always suspicious, and one can always find fringe opinions to support extreme, click-baiting viewpoints.  Unless one can demonstrate that the same ill-advised anonymous GMs are the ones breaking down Daboll's plays and pointing out where and why they are well-designed, this rather seems like a straw bale here.  The contention was "his pass play designs seem to elicit admiration from knowledgeable folk, and his run plays seem well designed albeit not always able to be well executed." 

 

When someone points out the X's and O's of a play and why it succeeds in creating hesitation and confliction for defenders, one can either see that it's true or it's not.  I can see that it's true much of the time.  I don't see how the clickbait opinions of anonymous GMs tell me anything, much less "all I need to know" about opinions on Daboll's play designs in the NFL.

 

 

Per Eric Wood........since you like EXPERT opinions.........the Patriots have a standard tactic of blowing up anticipated plays that involve the center trying to get out to the LB level by sending that linebacker in to violently engage the center at the LOS.   Looks like a blunted run blitz to most but it's really putting a hat on a hat to prevent a running lane from ever opening.  When Morse got hit.......he was concussed.   It didn't look THAT violent but he's just THAT susceptible to it at this stage.  I don't have the audio but all you have to do is re-watch the play.    If you object to "useless" in the running game fine.........he's just a HUGE LIABILITY in the run game.   IMO the problems with the run game start with his limitations at the LOS.

 

As for Daboll......like I've said he loves the gotcha' plays.   They look clever until they aren't fooling anyone and then wholesale changes are needed the answer comes much too late.   That's the KC gameplan in a nutshell.   

[Warcodered]

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

19 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

Per Eric Wood........since you like EXPERT opinions.........the Patriots have a standard tactic of blowing up anticipated plays that involve the center trying to get out to the LB level by sending that linebacker in to violently engage the center at the LOS.   Looks like a blunted run blitz to most but it's really putting a hat on a hat to prevent a running lane from ever opening.  When Morse got hit.......he was concussed.   It didn't look THAT violent but he's just THAT susceptible to it at this stage.  I don't have the audio but all you have to do is re-watch the play.  

 

Did you actually rewatch that play yourself?  Just curious, because there are features that don't match the above. 

 

When Morse got hit, he held the block and eventually widened so that the back in fact got through that hole - small hole and good job getting through it to convert.  Then Morse got hit from the side at the end of the play, staggered back, and went to a knee.  *shrug*.

 

I re-listened to Wood's "chopping Wood" segment on that game and didn't find the above; I might have more comment if you can point me to where it was made, but in honesty, not likely.