AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME! Bills at Chiefs, Sunday 6:40 pm on CBS

[stevewin]

40 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

Anyone watching nfl network? They are talking about Kelce and they have a three man panel... the one guy (sorry I don’t know his name) said “when you’re #1 corner, Tre white, who is struggling right now, can’t cover the TE”... I rewound it twice to make sure I heard it right that he actually said Tre white and actually meant how he was playing now. What?

I've seen experts say stuff this week that honestly they just make up.  It's not even lazy/old takes, just wrong ones - some totally from left field.  But if they say it with a lot of volume and conviction it must be true.  And there's rarely anyone else present with any actual knowledge to correct or challenge them. 

 

It's really been striking to me this week.  I realized it's because it is probably always happening, but this week with more discussion on the Bills, a team I know more about, the falsehoods and innaccuracies stand out.  It really has been kind of depressing to realize I watch so much content from people who honestly are so terrible at their job and provide nothing substantial.

[machine gun kelly]

Tre plays both man to man and zone depending what is asked of him by the coaches.  He’s shadowed guys, but when it’s a zone call, he plays his area.  I don’t think you’re being critical of him, just great CB’s where I agree are not robots.  Every excellent player on a team makes a mistake every once in awhile.  Remember how both Stevie Johnson and Sammy at times could burn Daryl Revis when he was in his prime.

[YoloinOhio]

8 minutes ago, TheProcess said:

They probably think Tre is struggling because he bit hard on that double move late in the game against Hollywood Brown who would’ve scored if completed. 🙄 

 

But yes, dumb comment. 

Even if it was that one play... it was ... one play. So yeah, dumb. 

[Blank Stare]

Anyone else annoyed with or tired of hearing clips of the Chiefs announcer? 
 

“Touchdown! Kan-zus City!”

 

Side note - He sounds very similar to the Buccaneers announcer. 
 

Yes, we’re at this portion of your program. Please get here soon game 😂. 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

18 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

Tre bit on an out and up on 4th and long up 14 late in the game with a QB playing for the first time in the NFL.  He probably thought there was zero chance of that route in that situation.  It’s not something that would ever happen with Mahomes playing or at any point in a tight game.  Smoked? Lol.

It’s okay to say, I don’t think he thought this is a rookie I’ll play relaxed  coverage, I just think Brown ran past him on an out and up by multiple steps.

 

These announcers though, we’ve all said it, they just repeat phrases they’ve heard as truth.

 

Control the clock, keep Mahomes off the field, control Kelce, stop Hill, block Chris Jones, confuse Josh Allen, bracket Stefon Diggs, control the line of scrimmage. None of it is actual analysis. They look at rankings and they say, Mahomes is great, the Bills are from WNY and so we’re going Chiefs.

 

I just want the Bills to give it everything they have Sunday by going 4-wide and 5-wide empty against whatever coverage they get and trust Allen to throw. I don’t want to hear about balance and how the Chiefs are “not good” against the run. Cleveland tried it last week and the only time they moved the ball is when Baker had to throw. 

[Rockinon]

6 hours ago, Zerovoltz said:

 

The reason why it matters:

 

Buffalo plays more 3 and 4 WR than anyone in the league.  If you guys are going to come out in 3 and 4 wide all game, then you allow KC to put it's optimal defense on the field.  That matters because KC's linebackers absolutely SUCK in coverage.  KC allows a TON of points and stats to TE and pass catching backs.....when they are in base defense....with the 3 linebackers out there.

 

You all might not think so, but part of why Josh struggled VS KC in week 6 is because the Bills don't have a TE threat AND...important AND...not a big time threatening running game.....

 

When the Chiefs aren't worried about a TE or an RB running....they will nickel and dime you to death.  It isn't a coincidence that Diggs tied his 2nd lowest number of recpetions and second lowest yardage total on the year VS KC.  That's what KC does ......when they can play extra DB's all game long.  KC has a slew of really good corners and safeties.

 

it's the main reason why the KC defense is a bad matchup for the Bills.  

Buffalo's offense figured out that KC D in the second half. Plus, we are significantly healthier. Buffalo will score. A lot. They can run that 2 high safety all they want and bring that pressure package all they want. It just isn't going to work. I expect the Bills will also take advantage of those wide open short passes in the flat. They were leaving some huge cushion there.

[Magox]

5 minutes ago, Rockinon said:

Buffalo's offense figured out that KC D in the second half. Plus, we are significantly healthier. Buffalo will score. A lot. They can run that 2 high safety all they want and bring that pressure package all they want. It just isn't going to work. I expect the Bills will also take advantage of those wide open short passes in the flat. They were leaving some huge cushion there.

I think this is part of the key offensively, to early on soften up their defense with the short passes and check downs.  They will be forced to start coming down and that is when they can begin punishing them with the crossing patterns down the field.  Josh has to remain patient and not force the ball into areas when the shorter stuff is there.  If he can do that then I expect the Bills to put up a lot of points.

[Rockinon]

2 minutes ago, Magox said:

I think this is part of the key offensively, to early on soften up their defense with the short passes and check downs.  They will be forced to start coming down and that is when they can begin punishing them with the crossing patterns down the field.  Josh has to remain patient and not force the ball into areas when the shorter stuff is there.  If he can do that then I expect the Bills to put up a lot of points.

KC is good at taking away the deep stuff. That isn't a problem when you have so much speed at WR. Diggs, Beasley and even TE and RB have proven they can get open quick. I think that will also slow down the pass rush. Funny thing is, Buffalo's OL has really improved too. I'm not sure they are even going to be able to get to Allen anyway. If that happens, Allen is going to shred them. Also, I have noticed a trend. The Bills have been quietly using motion more often. Easy to overlook, because they don't do it a lot. Allen has been using that to get a handle on what the D is doing. It's been helping him to identify mismatches and figure out who is in single coverage. This game is going to look a lot different from the previous game. I also think the run game is going to have a nice day, simply because the OL is playing better, and it isn't going to be expected.

[Coffeesforclosers]

18 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

 

These announcers though, we’ve all said it, they just repeat phrases they’ve heard as truth.

 

Control the clock, keep Mahomes off the field, control Kelce, stop Hill, block Chris Jones, confuse Josh Allen, bracket Stefon Diggs, control the line of scrimmage. None of it is actual analysis. They look at rankings and they say, Mahomes is great, the Bills are from WNY and so we’re going Chiefs.

 

 

It's the level of "analysis" you're fed from your producer scouting box scores a half hour before the show. Pure Hackery.

 

Just like if Allen wins, they'll make a galaxy of excuses for "How the chiefs lost", before they start running SB clips from 30 years ago as introduction Brady's/Roger's inevitable Lombardi.

[Bronxbomber21]

35 minutes ago, stevewin said:

I've seen experts say stuff this week that honestly they just make up.  It's not even lazy/old takes, just wrong ones - some totally from left field.  But if they say it with a lot of volume and conviction it must be true.  And there's rarely anyone else present with any actual knowledge to correct or challenge them. 

 

It's really been striking to me this week.  I realized it's because it is probably always happening, but this week with more discussion on the Bills, a team I know more about, the falsehoods and innaccuracies stand out.  It really has been kind of depressing to realize I watch so much content from people who honestly are so terrible at their job and provide nothing substantial.

It crazy that the podcasters and youtubers that do sports content are 100 times more knowledgeable and they dont even get paid for it . You would think if you got paid to talk sports you would want to be the very best at your job but nope. The people that get paid just want clicks 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

13 minutes ago, Magox said:

I think this is part of the key offensively, to early on soften up their defense with the short passes and check downs.  They will be forced to start coming down and that is when they can begin punishing them with the crossing patterns down the field.  Josh has to remain patient and not force the ball into areas when the shorter stuff is there.  If he can do that then I expect the Bills to put up a lot of points.

Yup I agree with this.

 

It takes advantage of the strengths of our WRs. They’re all veterans who understand zones and leverages.

 

Diggs, Brown, Beasley, McKenzie all understand when a corner breaks inside they break outside, when a corner breaks outside they break inside.

 

Diggs, Beasley and Brown all are very good at using speed and quickness to break off their man at the apex of routes and create separation. 
 

The Bills figured this out last year in the beginning of the year to shorten the average depth of target and we all saw some 2020 upside in the 2019 Thanksgiving game. 
 

But you’re right, the slice a dice routes on slants, outs, hitches, curls, digs, will start opening up longer routes.
 

And the other thing is is, this QB and WR group have become great sideline drill route runners. We know Diggs l, Beasley, Brown can do it, but also Davis as well. 

[SCBills]

3 minutes ago, Coffeesforclosers said:

 

It's the level of "analysis" you're fed from your producer scouting box scores a half hour before the show. Pure Hackery.

 

Just like if Allen wins, they'll make a galaxy of excuses for "How the chiefs lost", before they start running SB clips from 30 years ago as introduction Brady's/Roger's inevitable Lombardi.

I actually think the narrative will immediately switch if we beat KC.  
 

Right now they are the presumptive favorite in the media, not just now... but for the next 10 years.   
 

If we take them down, it would represent a massive landscape shift both in the AFC gatekeeper and QB views. 

[MasterStrategist]

1 hour ago, YoloinOhio said:

Anyone watching nfl network? They are talking about Kelce and they have a three man panel... the one guy (sorry I don’t know his name) said “when you’re #1 corner, Tre white, who is struggling right now, can’t cover the TE”... I rewound it twice to make sure I heard it right that he actually said Tre white and actually meant how he was playing now. What?

Pretty sure that was Greg Rosenthal saying that....saw it last night, such an uninformed comment.  Probably saw Tre White gamble on thr double move (missed deep pass in bmore game).

 

If Tre is struggling, i would like to see him when his game is on

[Dr. Who]

56 minutes ago, stevewin said:

I've seen experts say stuff this week that honestly they just make up.  It's not even lazy/old takes, just wrong ones - some totally from left field.  But if they say it with a lot of volume and conviction it must be true.  And there's rarely anyone else present with any actual knowledge to correct or challenge them. 

 

It's really been striking to me this week.  I realized it's because it is probably always happening, but this week with more discussion on the Bills, a team I know more about, the falsehoods and innaccuracies stand out.  It really has been kind of depressing to realize I watch so much content from people who honestly are so terrible at their job and provide nothing substantial.

Now, imagine that this isn't just true for football . . . 

[CincyBillsFan]

58 minutes ago, stevewin said:

I've seen experts say stuff this week that honestly they just make up.  It's not even lazy/old takes, just wrong ones - some totally from left field.  But if they say it with a lot of volume and conviction it must be true.  And there's rarely anyone else present with any actual knowledge to correct or challenge them. 

 

It's really been striking to me this week.  I realized it's because it is probably always happening, but this week with more discussion on the Bills, a team I know more about, the falsehoods and innaccuracies stand out.  It really has been kind of depressing to realize I watch so much content from people who honestly are so terrible at their job and provide nothing substantial.

 

After this week I'm more convinced then ever that most of the popular national "experts" are a special combination of lazy & ignorant. 

 

My favorite dumb take was one guy claiming that the Bills offense is struggling and that they have to score more then 10 points to have any chance against the Chiefs.  He was apparently basing his entire "analysis" on the Raven game!  You know a game in which the Bills O played in a gale against one of the best defenses in the NFL.  Had this moron gone back just one week he would have seen that the Bills O was playing at a very high level and had maintained that level in every game since the bye week.

 

 

 

Edited January 23, 2021 by CincyBillsFan

[YoloinOhio]

6 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

Pretty sure that was Greg Rosenthal saying that....saw it last night, such an uninformed comment.  Probably saw Tre White gamble on thr double move (missed deep pass in bmore game).

 

If Tre is struggling, i would like to see him when his game is on

Yes it was rosenthal 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

You hear it time and again 

 

Defense Wins Championships!!!

 

whichever Defense stifles the opposing QB and can force turnovers should  get the W.  
 

it really comes down to that tomorrow 

Edited January 23, 2021 by SlimShady'sSpaceForce

[Golden]

“I've seen experts say stuff this week that honestly they just make up.  It's not even lazy/old takes, just wrong ones - some totally from left field.  But if they say it with a lot of volume and conviction it must be true.  And there's rarely anyone else present with any actual knowledge to correct or challenge them. 

 

It's really been striking to me this week.  I realized it's because it is probably always happening, but this week with more discussion on the Bills, a team I know more about, the falsehoods and innaccuracies stand out.  It really has been kind of depressing to realize I watch so much content from people who honestly are so terrible at their job and provide nothing substantial.“

       Great point 👍

If there is an opportunity to reply to these types of things, I will often ask the writer to first do their research, and be professional about it. 

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

One Day More

 

Another Day, Another Destiny! 
 

 

[BuffaloBaumer]

Went snowboarding last night at HV last night and I swear half the people on the mountain seemed to be wearing Bills gear (tons of jerseys too). I must have heard the Shout Song 20 times and people were jump amped. I want this so GD badly for the city and to just soak it in for 2 more weeks....at least.

 

 

[RichRiderBills]

22 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

Yes it was rosenthal 

 

The guy is really unimpressive week after week. The show with their three heads super close and the cheesy baby blue back dtop on NFL channel is one of the worst productions ever. Literally fan youtube shows with better production value and insight. 

[Blank Stare]

I know weather has been beat to death this week, but come on. Supposed to be clear tomorrow in OP. No precip or wind. Meanwhile in KC...😡🤬

 

It’s even nice today in KC. Guess those two strong armed QBs will be put to the test. 

[Amaru523]

Listening to the radio yesterday on my way home from work, I believe it was FoxSports radio, they had a talking head (sorry cant remember who) predict the Chiefs to win 34-20. His reasoning made me laugh. It was because he thinks Mahomes is going to dice up the Bills because he's pissed that people think Allen should be ahead of him in the MVP race, an award that neither one of them will win.  Well, Mahomes may be mad, but the entire Bills team is pissed because just about everyone is picking the Chiefs to win.

Edited January 23, 2021 by Amaru523

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

16 minutes ago, TheProcess said:

I know weather has been beat to death this week, but come on. Supposed to be clear tomorrow in OP. No precip or wind. Meanwhile in KC...😡🤬

 

It’s even nice today in KC. Guess those two strong armed QBs will be put to the test. 

It’s actually looking pretty good now during game time. No rain. Wind at 8 MPH.  Weather.com, accuweather, and nflweather.com all reporting the same. 

[YoloinOhio]

 

[Bferra13]

1 minute ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

It’s actually looking pretty good now during game time. No rain. Wind at 8 MPH.  Weather.com, accuweather, and nflweather.com all reporting the same. 

Yup was just about to post this. Not looking bad at all.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

1 minute ago, Bferra13 said:

Yup was just about to post this. Not looking bad at all.

if there are any changes, I am sure you, me, or one of the other armchair meteorologists will update us. It is amazing how much I have learned about the weather in the last 2 weeks. 😀

[Hapless Bills Fan]

7 hours ago, Zerovoltz said:

 

The reason why it matters:

 

Buffalo plays more 3 and 4 WR than anyone in the league.  If you guys are going to come out in 3 and 4 wide all game, then you allow KC to put it's optimal defense on the field.  That matters because KC's linebackers absolutely SUCK in coverage.  KC allows a TON of points and stats to TE and pass catching backs.....when they are in base defense....with the 3 linebackers out there.

 

You all might not think so, but part of why Josh struggled VS KC in week 6 is because the Bills don't have a TE threat AND...important AND...not a big time threatening running game.....

 

When the Chiefs aren't worried about a TE or an RB running....they will nickel and dime you to death.  It isn't a coincidence that Diggs tied his 2nd lowest number of recpetions and second lowest yardage total on the year VS KC.  That's what KC does ......when they can play extra DB's all game long.  KC has a slew of really good corners and safeties.

 

it's the main reason why the KC defense is a bad matchup for the Bills.  

 

Zero, almost every team in the league runs the majority of their offensive plays from 3 WR sets.  There are 4 that don't: BAL CLE MIN SF and TEN.

 

As a response, almost every team in the league now runs close to half of their defensive plays from nickel.  That was true in 2019 and while 2020 stats not out for the public yet, I expect the trend has continued.  I expect that the same is true of KC, regardless of who they're playing.  

 

You'd have to show me the data on the pass success rate and % of base defense for KC to back this up.  Do you have data on this or is it TLAR eyeball stuff?

 

My perception of Spags is that he prefers to be aggressive with the blitz.  For teams that have the hosses to counter, quick passes to RBs and TE and YAC come along with that.

 

The bottom line is: KC overall is 19th in YPA against the pass.  Those ain't all TE and RB racking up those yards. I think you give up a good amount of yards against WR sometimes, no matter what D you're in.  But you play the personnel on your schedule, and you played this season against teams with a lot of good pass catching backs and TE.

 

Buffalo does not play more 3WR sets than anyone in the league.  "More 3 and 4 WR sets than anyone in the league" is a trending towards specious because there are only 2 teams which play >10% 4WR sets, so it's like saying "Buffalo plays more 3 and 4 WR than Arizona" which is like "Well durr" because they're more of a running team and play a lot of 2-1.

 

I would actually be surprised if the Bills play much 4WR sets with us being so banged up at WR, but it's Daboll so you never know.  But I doubt he'll be scheming much to get KC into base D because "dance with who brung ya".  It wouldn't surprise me if we saw attempts to get you into dime, then run.  How's your dime against the run?

 

Here are data  on offensive formations.  click to embiggen.  (the same websites defensive formation data appear to be messed up.)

[atlbillsfan1975]

1 hour ago, Rockinon said:

KC is good at taking away the deep stuff. That isn't a problem when you have so much speed at WR. Diggs, Beasley and even TE and RB have proven they can get open quick. I think that will also slow down the pass rush. Funny thing is, Buffalo's OL has really improved too. I'm not sure they are even going to be able to get to Allen anyway. If that happens, Allen is going to shred them. Also, I have noticed a trend. The Bills have been quietly using motion more often. Easy to overlook, because they don't do it a lot. Allen has been using that to get a handle on what the D is doing. It's been helping him to identify mismatches and figure out who is in single coverage. This game is going to look a lot different from the previous game. I also think the run game is going to have a nice day, simply because the OL is playing better, and it isn't going to be expected.

Good point on the Oline. The first meetings saw Winters at RG, not good, and Boettger’s first start at LG. Feliciano is a huge upgrade over Winters and Boettger has showed progress. 
I like Andy Reid so it’s tough to dislike the Chief’s, but their cocky fans are making it easier and easier. 

When we win our SB and go on our run, let’s stay humble and classy. Honestly, Chief fans should just look at how their HC models behavior. 

Edited January 23, 2021 by atlbillsfan1975

[Hapless Bills Fan]

11 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

 

I dunno about that.  I wish with all my heart our WR were healthier.

[Blank Stare]

11 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

It’s actually looking pretty good now during game time. No rain. Wind at 8 MPH.  Weather.com, accuweather, and nflweather.com all reporting the same. 

I hope you’re right. I see that during the day it’s not bad, but it worsens at night. At least per the weather.com app. 6:40 start, so I guess it depends on what weather.com considers night. I assume night is defined as after sunset which they have occurring at 5:30 PM. 

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

3 minutes ago, TheProcess said:

I hope you’re right. I see that during the day it’s not bad, but it worsens at night. At least per the weather.com app. 6:40 start, so I guess it depends on what weather.com considers night. I assume night is defined as after sunset which they have occurring at 5:30 PM. 

Are you looking at hourly? Every hourly I am seeing shows little chance of rain until 9 pm. Even then, the chances are slim (though percentages vary between the websites). 

 

Also, don’t forget that times to look at are in central time. 

[Patrick Duffy]

35 minutes ago, TheProcess said:

I know weather has been beat to death this week, but come on. Supposed to be clear tomorrow in OP. No precip or wind. Meanwhile in KC...😡🤬

 

It’s even nice today in KC. Guess those two strong armed QBs will be put to the test. 

Yeah I would go with the weather report out of KC that their local news reports this evening at 6 and 11. Those I would expect will be by then those reports would likely be pretty accurate for the most part.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

😆 like this won’t happen 

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, stevewin said:

I've seen experts say stuff this week that honestly they just make up.  It's not even lazy/old takes, just wrong ones - some totally from left field.  But if they say it with a lot of volume and conviction it must be true.  And there's rarely anyone else present with any actual knowledge to correct or challenge them. 

 

It's really been striking to me this week.  I realized it's because it is probably always happening, but this week with more discussion on the Bills, a team I know more about, the falsehoods and innaccuracies stand out.  It really has been kind of depressing to realize I watch so much content from people who honestly are so terrible at their job and provide nothing substantial.

 

I think it's a bit more with the Bills honestly, because we aren't one of the teams that is usually shown to a national audience.  So a lot of expert hot takes are based on what they've seen, which may or may not be representative or may have a cause different than they understand.

 

Example: it was pretty clear to me that the Bills game plan against the Ravens, especially in the RZ, was

1) contain Lamar Jackson and "force him to be a pocket QB

2) make him feel pressure in the pocket

3) contain Andrews

 

So as an example, we had Phil Simms on the Chris Simms Unbuttoned podcast phoning in and saying "the Bills made a lot of coverage mistakes, Marquise Brown was wide open in the endzone".   Yes, he was open, and yes, that's a mistake, but the Bills defense was wagering that if they contained and pressured Jackson and covered Andrews like a blanket, the Ravens WR could be prairie-open and it wouldn't matter.  Brown being open was a matter of defensive priorities as much or more than blown coverage.

 

And that wasn't even a truly terrible take since at least it was based upon an accurate observation of an actual game.  Where is someone even getting that Tre White is struggling right now or that he can't cover a TE?

 

Mahomes is another creature at QB altogether and I expect us to struggle defensively, frankly, because we do against truly multi-dimensional teams.  If we play to take away Kelce and Hill, Mahomes will just shrug and throw elsewhere.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

FWIW 

 

 

[Patrick Duffy]

2 minutes ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

😆 like this won’t happen 

 

 

Lol, yeah there will definitely be fans there. Hopefully they won't be all up in the players faces and stuff this time.

[HereComesTheReignAgain]

Watching GMFB, I noticed something that I find interesting. The clip of Diggs is him congratulating teammates. Most of us have seen his interview where he talks about how unselfish the whole WR core is and how they don’t care who gets the ball as long as the team wins. 
 

The clip they keep showing of dirtbag Hill..."I told you, keep the camera on me dog! The game ended when they needed ME the most."  
 

This the guy KC cheers for in Hill. "Stillwater police records indicate that on December 12, 2014, Hill was arrested on complaints of assault of his 20-year-old pregnant girlfriend, Crystal Espinal. The police report states that the two got into an argument and he threw her around "like a ragdoll", punched her in the face, sat on her and repeatedly punched her in the stomach, and choked her."

 

He pleaded guilty. KC drafted him anyway. 

 

They also kept him on the roster after he broke his 3 year old son's arm and was recorded threatening the mother. 

 

*not a process guy. 

[YoloinOhio]

21 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I dunno about that.  I wish with all my heart our WR were healthier.

The only one I’m concerned about being effective for health reasons is Gabe Davis. When you have to go all the way to your WR4 as the health issue at this point of the season it’s pretty fortunate. Beasely is fine and really was shut down by Baltimore’s defensive strategy last week. Diggs oblique has not impacted his performance and smoke is 100%

Edited January 23, 2021 by YoloinOhio

[ytownblofan]

1 hour ago, BuffaloBaumer said:

Went snowboarding last night at HV last night and I swear half the people on the mountain seemed to be wearing Bills gear (tons of jerseys too). I must have heard the Shout Song 20 times and people were jump amped. I want this so GD badly for the city and to just soak it in for 2 more weeks....at least.

 

 

Was there the Friday before the Colts game and the amount of Bills gear was awesome to see for a couple of guys from Cleveland