The fallacy of establishing the run

[WIDE LEFT]

How many times over the years have we heard from the media, everyone from Carucci to Murphy to Brown etc, and including many past coaches, about the vital importance of establishing the run game. “Brings the defense in, opens up the passing game” was the mantra. I had always believed the opposite - that the passing game opens up the run game. I confess to wasting time calling in on occasion to Murphy show attempting to make this point. To no avail.  My main points were these; 1. every rule change over the last two decades favors the pass game over the run. 2. Our most successful teams, the Kelly era, ran a pass first offense. In fact Thurman Thomas benefited greatly from this, as many defenses would use an extra DB & sub out a linebacker. 3. Perhaps most frustrating of all, I would point out that many teams, when playing against us in recent years, would load the box from the very first play. As I would point out, the idea of establishing the run to bring the defense in was ludicrous- they were ALREADY THERE. But no, the wisdom persisted, must have that strong running game.

I never argue that the run game is not important, only that the pass game is way, way more important. The pass game should set up the run. The pass game is absolutely critical to offensive success, the run game is not. 
So along comes the 2020 Bills to absolutely shatter the run game myth. And all of a sudden the media has stopped barking about the “vital” run game. Read Carucci’s past years columns- virtually every week he would explain how the Bills “had to establish the run”. But now you never see that take in this years columns. Like much of the media - often wrong but never in doubt. It took Allen and the 2020 offense to finally demonstrate the obvious.

[BillsToast]

Because it used to be true but the game evolved in both rule changes and in application. There are a bunch of these old mantras that no longer exist but were true in their day. 

 

Edited December 30, 2020 by BillsToast

[oldmanfan]

As one of the older folks around here, I am partial to the running game.  I think even in today's game, if you give me a strong O line on both sides of the ball, with a couple RB's that can pound the ball, I'd take my chances.  But your point is well taken.  When you have a weapon like Allen, with receivers like Diggs, you use them.

[WIDE LEFT]

Yes but it wasn’t until 2020 that many in the media woke up to this obvious fact

[1ManRaid]

6 minutes ago, WIDE LEFT said:

How many times over the years have we heard from the media, everyone from Carucci to Murphy to Brown etc, and including many past coaches, about the vital importance of establishing the run game. “Brings the defense in, opens up the passing game” was the mantra. I had always believed the opposite - that the passing game opens up the run game. I confess to wasting time calling in on occasion to Murphy show attempting to make this point. To no avail.  My main points were these; 1. every rule change over the last two decades favors the pass game over the run. 2. Our most successful teams, the Kelly era, ran a pass first offense. In fact Thurman Thomas benefited greatly from this, as many defenses would use an extra DB & sub out a linebacker. 3. Perhaps most frustrating of all, I would point out that many teams, when playing against us in recent years, would load the box from the very first play. As I would point out, the idea of establishing the run to bring the defense in was ludicrous- they were ALREADY THERE. But no, the wisdom persisted, must have that strong running game.

I never argue that the run game is not important, only that the pass game is way, way more important. The pass game should set up the run. The pass game is absolutely critical to offensive success, the run game is not. 
So along comes the 2020 Bills to absolutely shatter the run game myth. And all of a sudden the media has stopped barking about the “vital” run game. Read Carucci’s past years columns- virtually every week he would explain how the Bills “had to establish the run”. But now you never see that take in this years columns. Like much of the media - often wrong but never in doubt. It took Allen and the 2020 offense to finally demonstrate the obvious.

 

I remember as a kid, questioning the "run to set up the pass" thing for the same obvious reason of there already being 8 in the box what are we setting up?  We bash our head into that brick wall on first and second down, then pass into dime coverage on third and long, then punt.

 

If it was that obvious to a child, it must have been frustrating trying to convince set-in-their-ways radio talking heads.

[GunnerBill]

9 minutes ago, BillsToast said:

Because it used to be true but the game evolved in both rule changes and in application. There are a bunch of these old mantras that no longer exist but were true in their day. 

 

 

Agree "establish the run" is not a myth. It is just way outdated. Same as the perception that Edmunds isn't a good MLB because he isn't a big hitter who can smash a running back. 1985 football. 2020 football is about offenses that pass and defenses that defend the pass. 

[TBBills]

Establish the First down.

[Orlando Tim]

What has evolved the most is the short passing attack. That statement was true when you threw the ball 10+ yards everytime. Now 5 yard passes are highly useful. But you are correct that concept is wrong now.

[Florida Bills Fanatic]

Teams still need to show an ability and willingness to run the ball when the numbers in the box give the offense a big advantage.  Conversely, it doesn't make a lot of sense to run into a stacked box.  Defenses have to be forced to defend the entire field.  Occasional runs also slow down the pass rush and give o-linemen a competitive chance.  With all of the passing game rule changes in recent years, teams don't need to have 40 runs a game to be successful.  It's still a distinct advantage for a team to run the ball successfully in a four minute offense to close out a game to preserve a small lead.

[1ManRaid]

I think it was more true for coaches like Tony Gungy who had his players master the basics so much that they could tell the other team what they were going to do and wouldn't be stopped.  He had his players skilled/strong enough that simple football worked for him.  

 

We were criticized for years for having simple playbooks, because our mediocre roster couldn't dominate the basics like that.  

[JMF2006]

If you don't have a good QB who can make all the throws getting the run game going is must.

 

The Bills never had a good QB from 2001 to 2017 we had noodle arm game managers and QB's that couldn't read a defence even if it was spelled out in crayon.

 

That all changed in 2018 and now our young QB has grown his game and can win it through the air so the defence backs up and viola the run lanes open.

 

So yes your right...now but in years past that game plan was not really an option.

[John from Riverside]

It’s all about moving the chains however you’re able to do it

[Big Turk]

35 minutes ago, WIDE LEFT said:

How many times over the years have we heard from the media, everyone from Carucci to Murphy to Brown etc, and including many past coaches, about the vital importance of establishing the run game. “Brings the defense in, opens up the passing game” was the mantra. I had always believed the opposite - that the passing game opens up the run game. I confess to wasting time calling in on occasion to Murphy show attempting to make this point. To no avail.  My main points were these; 1. every rule change over the last two decades favors the pass game over the run. 2. Our most successful teams, the Kelly era, ran a pass first offense. In fact Thurman Thomas benefited greatly from this, as many defenses would use an extra DB & sub out a linebacker. 3. Perhaps most frustrating of all, I would point out that many teams, when playing against us in recent years, would load the box from the very first play. As I would point out, the idea of establishing the run to bring the defense in was ludicrous- they were ALREADY THERE. But no, the wisdom persisted, must have that strong running game.

I never argue that the run game is not important, only that the pass game is way, way more important. The pass game should set up the run. The pass game is absolutely critical to offensive success, the run game is not. 
So along comes the 2020 Bills to absolutely shatter the run game myth. And all of a sudden the media has stopped barking about the “vital” run game. Read Carucci’s past years columns- virtually every week he would explain how the Bills “had to establish the run”. But now you never see that take in this years columns. Like much of the media - often wrong but never in doubt. It took Allen and the 2020 offense to finally demonstrate the obvious.

 

Unless you are Baker Mayfield or Ryan Tannehill because they cannot function in a pass first offense and need a strong running game to help them out.

[dayman]

You need to run well for 2 situations:

 

1. QB/offense can't hit everything. This is not a problem for us but at least half the league has it.

 

2. Manage clock/control game when needed. This is important to everyone eventually. 

 

Running is now basically all about #2

[Victory Formation]

I think you have to be able to run in certain situations.. obviously it’s a pass happy league, the pass sets up the run and not vice versa.. Much of these WR screens, jet sweep plays and 1 yard passes and quick dump offs are an extension of the run game..

[Ta111]

Actually we may have evolved into using the pass to set up the run. When you spread out a defense with 4 wideouts and successfully use it, you in turn allow the running game a lot of room.

[Rubes]

I think using the pass to set up the run is a great strategy, as long as you have the horses and the playbook to do it. It requires WRs that can get quick separation, it requires a good pass-blocking OL, and it requires a QB that can read the field, make the right decision, and get the ball to the receivers quickly and accurately. And it also requires a strategy that works not only for short passes, but mid- and long passes as well, otherwise defenses can just squat on the short routes and disrupt it all.

 

We've seen over the years that without all of those components, it's not the easiest to do. When you've got all of it, like we seem to now, it's nearly unstoppable.

 

Once Brown is back (and if Beasley is healthy), we'll start to see more 4-WR sets, spreading things out, and giving the offense all sorts of options, especially in the running game. And it will work because Allen has the tools and experience now to run it effectively, read the defense, and make the right call. It all works together, but it's best when you have all of the ingredients.

 

It's probably more complex than establishing a running game to set up the pass, but much more effective when you've got it going.

 

Edited December 30, 2020 by Rubes

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

One aspect of establishing the run is to set up play action. Apparently the data implies running before play action has little to no effect on the outcome of the subsequent PA pass. I wish I had a source, but I hear guys like Joe Marino and a few others reference this sometimes.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Establishing the run hasnt been a thing since Brady and Moss emerged. Its a passing league and has been for over a decade. Pass and rush the passer. Can you win with a run game like Baltimore and Tenn? Yes but that is the exception not the rule any longer.

[The Jokeman]

2 hours ago, TBBills said:

Establish the First down.

Establish makeable first downs is more like it. Avoid 3rd and longs and you can sustain drives which should lead to points or at the very least flip the field if don't get points etc. 

[ganesh]

2 hours ago, WIDE LEFT said:

Yes but it wasn’t until 2020 that many in the media woke up to this obvious fact

The Chiefs have been toying with this idea for the past two seasons.

[Figster]

I find it amusing that Buffalo starts hitting on all cylinders simultaneously with getting the run game on track and find the premise of this thread to be way off base IMO.

[whorlnut]

The thing that infuriates me is that sometimes we seem to be stubborn and insist we can “fix” the run game. Bottom line is that it isnt very good. It’s to the point where it seems like a wasted down. When we pass, we usually get chunks. I just don’t get it...

[ganesh]

3 hours ago, WIDE LEFT said:

Yes but it wasn’t until 2020 that many in the media woke up to this obvious fact

The Chiefs have been toying with this idea for the past two seasons.

I think they need to involve Singletary more in the passing game.  He is deadly in open space

[Shaw66]

3 hours ago, WIDE LEFT said:

How many times over the years have we heard from the media, everyone from Carucci to Murphy to Brown etc, and including many past coaches, about the vital importance of establishing the run game. “Brings the defense in, opens up the passing game” was the mantra. I had always believed the opposite - that the passing game opens up the run game. I confess to wasting time calling in on occasion to Murphy show attempting to make this point. To no avail.  My main points were these; 1. every rule change over the last two decades favors the pass game over the run. 2. Our most successful teams, the Kelly era, ran a pass first offense. In fact Thurman Thomas benefited greatly from this, as many defenses would use an extra DB & sub out a linebacker. 3. Perhaps most frustrating of all, I would point out that many teams, when playing against us in recent years, would load the box from the very first play. As I would point out, the idea of establishing the run to bring the defense in was ludicrous- they were ALREADY THERE. But no, the wisdom persisted, must have that strong running game.

I never argue that the run game is not important, only that the pass game is way, way more important. The pass game should set up the run. The pass game is absolutely critical to offensive success, the run game is not. 
So along comes the 2020 Bills to absolutely shatter the run game myth. And all of a sudden the media has stopped barking about the “vital” run game. Read Carucci’s past years columns- virtually every week he would explain how the Bills “had to establish the run”. But now you never see that take in this years columns. Like much of the media - often wrong but never in doubt. It took Allen and the 2020 offense to finally demonstrate the obvious.

You're right insofar as "establishing" the run is concerned.   You don't need to be able to run first to have a good offense.  

 

However, you need to be able to run.  There are times in the game - namely, the end of the half and the end of the game, when running effectively is important.   That's because at those times, running the clock becomes the most important objective.  To run the clock, you need to maintain possession, and yes, it's possible to maintain possession with a passing game, but running the clock with a passing game is much more difficult.   Every incompletion stops the clock, and that's 40 seconds that don't run off the clock.  An effective passing game also uses the sideline a lot, and that invites the defense to drive the receiver out of bounds.  So, if I run for 15 yards on three plays, I get a first down and I take two minutes off the clock.  If I throw incomplete once, to the sideline once for seven and over the middle for 8, I get the same 15 yards and the same first down, but i take only one minute off the clock.  

 

The Bills haven't had a very good running game this year, but they HAVE been able to run effectively at the end of a few games.  That's the minimum you need from your running game. 

[Nextmanup]

3 hours ago, WIDE LEFT said:

How many times over the years have we heard from the media, everyone from Carucci to Murphy to Brown etc, and including many past coaches, about the vital importance of establishing the run game. “Brings the defense in, opens up the passing game” was the mantra. I had always believed the opposite - that the passing game opens up the run game. I confess to wasting time calling in on occasion to Murphy show attempting to make this point. To no avail.  My main points were these; 1. every rule change over the last two decades favors the pass game over the run. 2. Our most successful teams, the Kelly era, ran a pass first offense. In fact Thurman Thomas benefited greatly from this, as many defenses would use an extra DB & sub out a linebacker. 3. Perhaps most frustrating of all, I would point out that many teams, when playing against us in recent years, would load the box from the very first play. As I would point out, the idea of establishing the run to bring the defense in was ludicrous- they were ALREADY THERE. But no, the wisdom persisted, must have that strong running game.

I never argue that the run game is not important, only that the pass game is way, way more important. The pass game should set up the run. The pass game is absolutely critical to offensive success, the run game is not. 
So along comes the 2020 Bills to absolutely shatter the run game myth. And all of a sudden the media has stopped barking about the “vital” run game. Read Carucci’s past years columns- virtually every week he would explain how the Bills “had to establish the run”. But now you never see that take in this years columns. Like much of the media - often wrong but never in doubt. It took Allen and the 2020 offense to finally demonstrate the obvious.

I totally agree with you.

 

The important thing is that, some time during this season, the Bills became one of the more intelligent/analytics-focused teams in the league.

 

McDermott is not doing the same dumb stuff anymore and we are more apt to go for it on 4th down, punt less, go for 2 extra points when appropriate, and so on.  His challenges still need work, but the in-game tactics have improved greatly.  

 

These guys also seem to get the huge importance of a pass-first attack, and it's why I am so big on our team right now.  Haven't been this big on them since the Super Bowl years.

 

I keep dreaming of them adding a stud TE who can run and catch and what that could open up for our offense, which is already firing on all cylinders.

 

 

3 hours ago, BillsToast said:

Because it used to be true but the game evolved in both rule changes and in application. There are a bunch of these old mantras that no longer exist but were true in their day. 

 

And the funny thing is that the "experts" who comment on the game never got the email that the game has changed.

 

The conventional wisdom surrounding the game of football is extremely low IQ.  Always has been.

 

 

[Figster]

18 minutes ago, whorlnut said:

The thing that infuriates me is that sometimes we seem to be stubborn and insist we can “fix” the run game. Bottom line is that it isnt very good. It’s to the point where it seems like a wasted down. When we pass, we usually get chunks. I just don’t get it...

You don't have to do something in high numbers for the opposition to respect it. When they do , it helps open up more possibilities. When teams don't respect the run it closes doors for others play in the playbook to work well. Good ball distribution is key and RB's are weapons that need to be utilized properly IMO.  

[BillsToast]

4 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

And the funny thing is that the "experts" who comment on the game never got the email that the game has changed.

 

The conventional wisdom surrounding the game of football is extremely low IQ.  Always has been.

 

 

 

You see it in every sport that changes:

NBA: 3's don't win championships

NFL: Have to run to setup the pass

MMA: Have to be great at jujitsu

Tennis: You have to come to the net

 

Rules change, game changes, techniques improve and sports are never the same.

[Figster]

19 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

I totally agree with you.

 

The important thing is that, some time during this season, the Bills became one of the more intelligent/analytics-focused teams in the league.

 

McDermott is not doing the same dumb stuff anymore and we are more apt to go for it on 4th down, punt less, go for 2 extra points when appropriate, and so on.  His challenges still need work, but the in-game tactics have improved greatly.  

 

These guys also seem to get the huge importance of a pass-first attack, and it's why I am so big on our team right now.  Haven't been this big on them since the Super Bowl years.

 

I keep dreaming of them adding a stud TE who can run and catch and what that could open up for our offense, which is already firing on all cylinders.

 

 

And the funny thing is that the "experts" who comment on the game never got the email that the game has changed.

 

The conventional wisdom surrounding the game of football is extremely low IQ.  Always has been.

 

 

Question, do you see how balanced a team like the Titans are and how that balance of run and pass almost took them to the Superbowl?

 

Smash mouth football gone from the game?

 

I don't think so...

 

Low IQ surrounding the game? Yep, sometimes

[Sweats]

The age old question....use the pass to set up the run or the run to set up the pass

[TBBills]

1 hour ago, The Jokeman said:

Establish makeable first downs is more like it. Avoid 3rd and longs and you can sustain drives which should lead to points or at the very least flip the field if don't get points etc. 

"First down, Second down, First Down" Peyton Manning

[mjt328]

Success can happen many different ways in the NFL.

There are currently three teams averaging over 30 points per game.  Green Bay, Kansas City and Tennessee.  One is well-balanced.  One is pass-heavy.  One is run-heavy.  All are very tough to stop.

 

Yes, the rules certainly now favor the passing game.  But everyone is playing the same rules, and it evens out on both sides. 

Historically speaking, the playoffs also tend to have some bad weather games.  Wind.  Rain.  Snow.  The AFC could easily see bad weather in any of their matchups, outside of Miami or Indianapolis.