Changed my mind - Bring back Milano and let Edmunds walk

[Ethan in Cleveland]

This defense is truly transformed with Milano playing.  I just rewatched the game.  He made multiple plays and good open field tackles.  Maybe it is this scheme. Maybe he is just that good.  Beane can't let him walk out the door.  In an ideal world the Bills and Milano would realize they are both good for each other and hammer out a reasonable deal.  Maybe with COVID and a static or falling cap number, there won't be too much money to throw at Milano by other teams.  If they can't find common ground then they should tag him.  Previously I said let Milano walk and use the tag for Williams at RT.  Now I say do whatever they can to keep him in Buffalo for another year.

 

Edmunds was terrible again.  He took bad angles again.  When he sheds a block someone let me know because it will be his first.  The runs up the gut were in part due to him guessing the wrong hole and just getting blown out of the play.  There is no way he played anywhere close to a ProBowl level this year.  Am I missing something?  Are you guys seeing something I am not?  He was moved to OLB for a handful of plays.  I get it 9 points, why mess with what's working.  But what happens when they play a competent offense that can run the ball?  

 

 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

1 minute ago, Ethan in Portland said:

This defense is truly transformed with Milano playing.  I just rewatched the game.  He made multiple plays and good open field tackles.  Maybe it is this scheme. Maybe he is just that good.  Beane can't let him walk out the door.  In an ideal world the Bills and Milano would realize they are both good for each other and hammer out a reasonable deal.  Maybe with COVID and a static or falling cap number, there won't be too much money to throw at Milano by other teams.  If they can't find common ground then they should tag him.  Previously I said let Milano walk and use the tag for Williams at RT.  Now I say do whatever they can to keep him in Buffalo for another year.

 

Edmunds was terrible again.  He took bad angles again.  When he sheds a block someone let me know because it will be his first.  The runs up the gut were in part due to him guessing the wrong hole and just getting blown out of the play.  There is no way he played anywhere close to a ProBowl level this year.  Am I missing something?  Are you guys seeing something I am not?  He was moved to OLB for a handful of plays.  I get it 9 points, why mess with what's working.  But what happens when they play a competent offense that can run the ball?  

 

 

Hes another one of those high ceiling guys that im sure we want to give as much time to develop as possible.  Its pretty funny listening to commentators who clearly don't watch bills games talk about how good he has been lol

[Bferra13]

Only thing your missing is the injuries with Milano. Hes very good. Its a very tough call though and good analysis.

Edited December 29, 2020 by Bferra13

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Just now, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Hes another one of those high ceiling guys that im sure we want to give as much time to develop as possible.  Its pretty funny listening to commentators who clearly don't watch bills games talk about how good he has been lol

No doubt you bring him back for 2021. But I just don't see him as the long term answer at MLB.  

[RobbRiddicksTDLeap]

Edmunds was terrible again?

What game were you watching?

 

Just because one player plays well statistically and the other doesn’t, means nothing. 
 

The goal should be to keep as much of the defense together as possible. Not get into the addition by subtraction nonsense. 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

Just now, Ethan in Portland said:

No doubt you bring him back for 2021. But I just don't see him as the long term answer at MLB.  

Kind of reminds me of a Josh Allen-like project on the defensive side of the ball.  Absolute athletic freak thats young and raw and you want to see him improve every year.  Obviously its trending in the opposite direction than josh has and I think if we had to make the decision right now youre right.  Im sure they will line him up at olb or try him in a different role next season before moving on

[Kwai San]

I am drinking  the kool-aid......sign him for a gazillion dollahs......OMFG he was good today.....seriously worth every dime we toss at him......Holy muther fricking crap!!!!  No?????

[Ethan in Cleveland]

2 minutes ago, RobbRiddicksTDLeap said:

Edmunds was terrible again?

What game were you watching?

 

Just because one player plays well statistically and the other doesn’t, means nothing. 
 

The goal should be to keep as much of the defense together as possible. Not get into the addition by subtraction nonsense. 

Has nothing to do with stats. I don't even know how many tackles he was credited with.  Don't care.  I watched the plays.  Go back and watch them too.  You will see what I see.  

[Rc2catch]

Milanos worth to buffalo is much much higher than his worth on the open market. Not sure he will see very big offers in free agency. That said I’m not cool with paying him 8-10 million a year and it only takes one team to splurge. I would expect similar to lawson they’ll let him test the waters hoping they can compete with other offers. I don’t have high hopes of him returning, nor do I have high hopes of Daryl Williams returning (he’s gonna get a monster deal). This is what happens when teams get good, gonna have to let some players walk after their rookie deals. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

2 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Kind of reminds me of a Josh Allen-like project on the defensive side of the ball.  Absolute athletic freak thats young and raw and you want to see him improve every year.  Obviously its trending in the opposite direction than josh has and I think if we had to make the decision right now youre right.  Im sure they will line him up at olb or try him in a different role next season before moving on

The injury is the great unknown.  Chances are he still needs off-season shoulder surgery.  If that is the case maybe 2021 looks more like 2019 when it really looked liek he was playing at a high level.  

[ctk232]

8 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

No doubt you bring him back for 2021. But I just don't see him as the long term answer at MLB.  

Are we still trying to fit square pegs in round holes by saying our D has a defined MLB and OLB? Because it doesn’t - even per Lorax, there is no difference between Milano and Edmunds positions except for specific man or zone coverage assignments on various downs.

 

I agree, I don’t know where his Pro Bowl nomination came from, but I hardly feel his development trajectory is one that is cause for concern. He and Milano together are a solid duo - run plays were blown up at the line and adjustments were made in game. It’s an area to improve, but I would still keep the pitchforks stored.  I would agree, however, that Milano’s value to the Bills is higher than market average for his role in this D.

Edited December 29, 2020 by ctk232

[Buffalo_Stampede]

They were talking up Milano tonight before he played lights out. Strange. I wonder who told ESPN Milano needed to be spotlighted. Milano definitely delivered though under the spotlight. 

 

He's a very good player. I think he gets a 1 year deal to prove he can stay healthy. 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

2 minutes ago, ctk232 said:

Are we still trying to fit square pegs in round holes by saying our D has a defined MLB and OLB? Because it doesn’t - even per Lorax, there is no difference between Milano and Edmunds positions except for specific man or zone coverage assignments on various downs.

 

I agree, I don’t know where his Pro Bowl nomination came from, but I hardly feel his development trajectory is one that is cause for concern. He and Milano together are a solid duo - run plays were blown up at the line and adjustments were made in game. It’s an area to improve, but I would still keep the pitchforks stored.

 

Good points...we can't pay all these guys though so someone has to make some tough decisions soon lol luckily as fans all we have to do is criticize them 😁

[BuffaloRebound]

Edmunds has zero playmaking ability or instincts. He’s a highly athletic robot out there.  Not sure you can teach him how to anticipate or make a play on the ball.  He should play lots of pickup hoops in the offseason. Not sure how else to teach a guy anticipation and ball skills.  

[Big Turk]

6 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Has nothing to do with stats. I don't even know how many tackles he was credited with.  Don't care.  I watched the plays.  Go back and watch them too.  You will see what I see.  

 

That the Bills held the Pats to 201 yards of total offense a week after holding the Broncos to 255?

[Ethan in Cleveland]

1 minute ago, ctk232 said:

Are we still trying to fit square pegs in round holes by saying our D has a defined MLB and OLB? Because it doesn’t - even per Lorax, there is no difference between Milano and Edmunds positions except for specific man or zone coverage assignments on various downs.

 

I agree, I don’t know where his Pro Bowl nomination came from, but I hardly feel his development trajectory is one that is cause for concern. He and Milano together are a solid duo - run plays were blown up at the line and adjustments were made in game. It’s an area to improve, but I would still keep the pitchforks stored.

From what I see Edmunds is lined up over the center >80% of the time.  He had 5-7 snaps lined up on the outside shoulder of the tackle.  He mostly dropped into zone but was man to man on the RB a few times - he went into coverage and delayed blitzed on a couple plays after seeing the RB stay in to block.  That is classic MLB play in a base 4-3 or nickel D.

The only play I remember Milano lining up between the guards was on an early blitz call that led to a sack by Addison or Butler.  

[ctk232]

Just now, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Good points...we can't pay all these guys though so someone has to make some tough decisions soon lol luckily as fans all we have to do is criticize them 😁

Not sure we can’t in all honesty - depends a lot on how they structure contracts and potentially restructure others. I don’t think we see a few guys return next year, but I doubt Beane will be forced to choose between the two LBs.

 

We’ll know more after the draft/FA and once the new cap is set.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Just now, BuffaloRebound said:

Edmunds has zero playmaking ability or instincts. He’s a highly athletic robot out there.  Not sure you can teach him how to anticipate or make a play on the ball.  He should play lots of pickup hoops in the offseason. Not sure how else to teach a guy anticipation and ball skills.  

He's still a very young player. But yeah he doesn't read plays very well. His length and athletic abilities make him a player you want to keep though. He can still develop more. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

1 minute ago, Big Turk said:

 

That the Bills held the Pats to 201 yards of total offense a week after holding the Broncos to 255?

I'm sure they will be happy with the collective defensive effort and result, but the coaches grade the individual performances too. 

[Bob in STL]

19 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

This defense is truly transformed with Milano playing.  I just rewatched the game.  He made multiple plays and good open field tackles.  Maybe it is this scheme. Maybe he is just that good.  Beane can't let him walk out the door.  In an ideal world the Bills and Milano would realize they are both good for each other and hammer out a reasonable deal.  Maybe with COVID and a static or falling cap number, there won't be too much money to throw at Milano by other teams.  If they can't find common ground then they should tag him.  Previously I said let Milano walk and use the tag for Williams at RT.  Now I say do whatever they can to keep him in Buffalo for another year.

 

Edmunds was terrible again.  He took bad angles again.  When he sheds a block someone let me know because it will be his first.  The runs up the gut were in part due to him guessing the wrong hole and just getting blown out of the play.  There is no way he played anywhere close to a ProBowl level this year.  Am I missing something?  Are you guys seeing something I am not?  He was moved to OLB for a handful of plays.  I get it 9 points, why mess with what's working.  But what happens when they play a competent offense that can run the ball?  

 

 

 

19 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

This defense is truly transformed with Milano playing.  I just rewatched the game.  He made multiple plays and good open field tackles.  Maybe it is this scheme. Maybe he is just that good.  Beane can't let him walk out the door.  In an ideal world the Bills and Milano would realize they are both good for each other and hammer out a reasonable deal.  Maybe with COVID and a static or falling cap number, there won't be too much money to throw at Milano by other teams.  If they can't find common ground then they should tag him.  Previously I said let Milano walk and use the tag for Williams at RT.  Now I say do whatever they can to keep him in Buffalo for another year.

 

Edmunds was terrible again.  He took bad angles again.  When he sheds a block someone let me know because it will be his first.  The runs up the gut were in part due to him guessing the wrong hole and just getting blown out of the play.  There is no way he played anywhere close to a ProBowl level this year.  Am I missing something?  Are you guys seeing something I am not?  He was moved to OLB for a handful of plays.  I get it 9 points, why mess with what's working.  But what happens when they play a competent offense that can run the ball?  

 

 

A bad take.  
 

Both are excellent players.  We need to extend both of them.  

[Richard Noggin]

I'm going to agree that Edmunds had difficulty in the running game, and especially on that Newton TD run. Woof.

 

However, the argument for overlooking the bad angles/reads/general lack of instincts/aggression is that Edmunds MUST be an effective zone defender against the pass. I've heard professional mention of him as an effective deterrent when he drops into zone responsibilities, which is something McD and Frazier value in their MLB. 

 

So the question becomes, is it actually okay for a modern MLB to be soft against the run if he's effective against the pass? (I don't like it, but it's possible, especially when the offense can force opponents to play from behind, that his limited skillset is still really valuable.)

 

And all that being said, he's not nearly as good as Milano (when Milano is 100%).

 

 

[ctk232]

6 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

From what I see Edmunds is lined up over the center >80% of the time.  He had 5-7 snaps lined up on the outside shoulder of the tackle.  He mostly dropped into zone but was man to man on the RB a few times - he went into coverage and delayed blitzed on a couple plays after seeing the RB stay in to block.  That is classic MLB play in a base 4-3 or nickel D.

The only play I remember Milano lining up between the guards was on an early blitz call that led to a sack by Addison or Butler.  

Milano lined up over the middle and shot the wrong gap on a big Taylor chunk run. It’s all about the line, first and foremost. Edmunds can still improve for sure, but I don’t agree with the resignation in judgment.
 

Again, it’s been stated there’s no real difference between their positions in this D and what each is asked to do at different times. McD’s “MLB” if you prefer, requires more coverage assignments than actual gap discipline. It’s always been a hybrid position that no true MLB can fill. He was asked to play that role in stopping the run tonight, which we adjusted and did in the second half. Our DTs were slow to the take in the first half on a few plays as well.

Edited December 29, 2020 by ctk232

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

Milano is great. But he doesn’t strike me as the type of LB you pay big money to, as opposed to finding a guy in the draft to replace him. 

 

[Richard Noggin]

Oh, and I think tonight even further emphasizes how effing important #75 Williams is to this offense's success. Going spread so often absolutely requires bookend tackles. Especially when our QB loves to roll out to the right.

[ctk232]

1 minute ago, Richard Noggin said:

Oh, and I think tonight even further emphasizes how effing important #75 Williams is to this offense's success. Going spread so often absolutely requires bookend tackles. Especially when our QB loves to roll out to the right.

This to me is the biggest signing needed this offseason...bar none

Edited December 29, 2020 by ctk232

[Ethan in Cleveland]

10 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:

I'm going to agree that Edmunds had difficulty in the running game, and especially on that Newton TD run. Woof.

 

However, the argument for overlooking the bad angles/reads/general lack of instincts/aggression is that Edmunds MUST be an effective zone defender against the pass. I've heard professional mention of him as an effective deterrent when he drops into zone responsibilities, which is something McD and Frazier value in their MLB. 

 

So the question becomes, is it actually okay for a modern MLB to be soft against the run if he's effective against the pass? (I don't like it, but it's possible, especially when the offense can force opponents to play from behind, that his limited skillset is still really valuable.)

 

And all that being said, he's not nearly as good as Milano (when Milano is 100%).

 

 

Interesting take.  In 2020 NFL, you may be correct that your MLB may need to be better in coverage than in run defense.  It's harder to tell on the TV how he is doing in coverage.  They don't always show his drops. He seems rangy but I have not seen him break up many passes this year.  

[JGMcD2]

It’s a passing league... the guy is an absolute weapon in pass coverage due to his length and speed.

 

What he brings to the table really can’t be measure effectively all the time... his length clogs up passing windows and makes the QBs job much more difficult. 
 

His run stopping ability leaves a lot to be desired, but that’s not where his value is derived. He does his job at a high level and he’s only 22 years old. You draft a LB to replace him and he’s gonna to be older than Tremaine lmao... the kid is going to be an absolute beast when he enters his prime.

 

He’s closer to the 2019 player than he is the 2020 player and he’s still growing as a MLB... after seeing how player development works with Josh, you’d think people would just think for a minute.

Edited December 29, 2020 by JGMcD2

[Mynamemike]

If only we could put Milano’s instincts and play style into Edmunds body, you’d have the perfect linebacker 

[Aussie Joe]

25 minutes ago, Rc2catch said:

Milanos worth to buffalo is much much higher than his worth on the open market. Not sure he will see very big offers in free agency. That said I’m not cool with paying him 8-10 million a year and it only takes one team to splurge. I would expect similar to lawson they’ll let him test the waters hoping they can compete with other offers. I don’t have high hopes of him returning, nor do I have high hopes of Daryl Williams returning (he’s gonna get a monster deal). This is what happens when teams get good, gonna have to let some players walk after their rookie deals. 

 

You wouldnt pay Milano $8Mil per year??

 

What would you offer him?

 

They are paying AJ Klein $6Mil per year

[Jerboski]

Williams over Milano or Tremaine 

 

The team is the offense and keeping Allen upright 

[Richard Noggin]

Just now, Ethan in Portland said:

Interesting take.  In 2020 NFL, you may be correct that your MLB may need to be better in coverage than in run defense.  It's harder to tell on the TV how he is doing in coverage.  They don't always show his drops. He seems rangy but I have not seen him break up many passes this year.  

 

I'm definitely not convinced Edmunds is an excellent pass defender, and stats PROVE he hasn't made many splashy or impact plays. But it's possible that he's able to cover lots of ground when dropping into coverage, and that his length and general athleticism and smarts (which is different than instincts) assist the Bills in being consistently awesome defending the pass.

 

I remember some noteworthy Tampa-2 LBs this millennium whose most important (and unsung) assignments involved repeatedly dropping to deter/defend the pass. Maybe Edmunds excels at this?  

[BuffaloRebound]

Milano is so disruptive in this defense.  If the decision is between paying Milano or Edmunds, I’d pick Milano without thinking twice unless the injury thing is something chronic.  I’m sure you’d get at least a 2nd rounder from somebody like Pete Carroll for Edmunds based on his measurables and Pro Bowls. 

[Rc2catch]

Just now, Aussie Joe said:

 

You wouldnt pay Milano $8Mil per year??

 

What would you offer him?

 

They are paying AJ Klein $6Mil per year

Klein has been pretty durable through the years. Not that I was overly excited at his salary or think he’s worth 6. We are close to having our main core group of young talent signed up long term, so not everyone can get a new contract. Milano is worth more here than most other teams, but that doesn’t mean you have to pay it. I would not pay him 8 million a year long term. One season, sure. It’s nothing against him, his play, or his durability. But his spot is one of the easiest to replace on a rookie deal and long term team building that money may be needed elsewhere. 

[LABILLBACKER]

Neither LB is a true Mike. We will have to draft someone. Milano tends to be slightly more consistent. I like Tremaine's size but I don't want him to be a glorified DB. His gap instincts are still bad. I think they'll resign Matt to a reasonable mid tier contract. They'll draft a mlb prospect and eventually say goodbye to Edmunds.

[Mat68]

7 minutes ago, Mynamemike said:

If only we could put Milano’s instincts and play style into Edmunds body, you’d have the perfect linebacker 

Maybe in 4 years, when Edmunds is as old as Milano now, he will be as instictive.  Edmunds is still only 22.  Milano was still at BC at 22.  Edmunds has crazy potentail.  One of these days he will just dominate a game and he wont look back.  

[Rc2catch]

2 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

I'm definitely not convinced Edmunds is an excellent pass defender, and stats PROVE he hasn't made many splashy or impact plays. But it's possible that he's able to cover lots of ground when dropping into coverage, and that his length and general athleticism and smarts (which is different than instincts) assist the Bills in being consistently awesome defending the pass.

 

I remember some noteworthy Tampa-2 LBs this millennium whose most important (and unsung) assignments involved repeatedly dropping to deter/defend the pass. Maybe Edmunds excels at this?  

Edmunds drop into coverage is mostly hinged on pass rush. In 2-4 seconds nobody is throwing near him and if they do it’s in front on him, after 2-4 seconds the quarterback can easily work around him. That’s one of the biggest reasons he catches heat on here is the quarterback is reading Edmunds drop a lot of times and hitting simple crossing routes when they clear him. If the pass rush doesn’t have pressure Edmunds is left as a sitting duck out there. 

[ColoradoBills]

27 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:

I'm going to agree that Edmunds had difficulty in the running game, and especially on that Newton TD run. Woof.

 

However, the argument for overlooking the bad angles/reads/general lack of instincts/aggression is that Edmunds MUST be an effective zone defender against the pass. I've heard professional mention of him as an effective deterrent when he drops into zone responsibilities, which is something McD and Frazier value in their MLB. 

 

So the question becomes, is it actually okay for a modern MLB to be soft against the run if he's effective against the pass? (I don't like it, but it's possible, especially when the offense can force opponents to play from behind, that his limited skillset is still really valuable.)

 

And all that being said, he's not nearly as good as Milano (when Milano is 100%).

 

 

 

I like your take on his play.  I agree he has an issue with face to face tackling and I really had hoped he would improve this season.

My amateurs' take on him is he either commits too early on the wrong line or waits and almost stops when a runner comes at him

which allows him to be easily "juked" (Cam TD).

 

That being said he is young and didn't have a camp to work on stuff like this so I will give him another year.

I 100% believe the coaches see this too.

I hope he can improve enough to become the asset he was drafted to be.  

 

Either way this is off season stuff to talk about for me.  He's the Bills MLB until he isn't.

[Aussie Joe]

Just now, Rc2catch said:

Klein has been pretty durable through the years. Not that I was overly excited at his salary or think he’s worth 6. We are close to having our main core group of young talent signed up long term, so not everyone can get a new contract. Milano is worth more here than most other teams, but that doesn’t mean you have to pay it. I would not pay him 8 million a year long term. One season, sure. It’s nothing against him, his play, or his durability. But his spot is one of the easiest to replace on a rookie deal and long term team building that money may be needed elsewhere. 

 

Id be happy with Milano at $24M for three years with the last year being no guaranteed money and they could move on if need be and actually have his replacement in house by then instead of hoping you replace him..

 

Obviously you dont pay Klein as well so you cut him and save that money so its ony $2M a year more for a vastly better player

 

Based on this season, I just think Milano makes so much difference to this D when he is out there that you gotta do your best to keep him if you can..

 

Im not sure its as easy as you think to replace Milano in the draft and I think they have bigger needs to spend their top draft picks on next year - CB, DE, TE and S..

 

 

 

 

[Richard Noggin]

3 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Maybe in 4 years, when Edmunds is as old as Milano now, he will be as instictive.  Edmunds is still only 22.  Milano was still at BC at 22.  Edmunds has crazy potentail.  One of these days he will just dominate a game and he wont look back.  

 

Interesting point. 

 

I remember watching pre-draft highlights of Milano at BC...and coming away underwhelmed. Especially with respect to "instincts." In contrast to his play in Buffalo, he seemed not to be around the ball much, or with effective aggression. So maybe Milano needed more time and NFL coaching to round into form, which I think was kinda your point?

 

(This is like a three year-old take, mind you. So be gentle if I'm wrong. Or call me names. Either way.)

4 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

My amateurs' take on him is he either commits too early on the wrong line or waits and almost stops when a runner comes at him

which allows him to be easily "juked" (Cam TD).

 

 

I'm especially intrigued by this analysis. 

[BADOLBILZ]

15 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

I'm definitely not convinced Edmunds is an excellent pass defender, and stats PROVE he hasn't made many splashy or impact plays. But it's possible that he's able to cover lots of ground when dropping into coverage, and that his length and general athleticism and smarts (which is different than instincts) assist the Bills in being consistently awesome defending the pass.

 

I remember some noteworthy Tampa-2 LBs this millennium whose most important (and unsung) assignments involved repeatedly dropping to deter/defend the pass. Maybe Edmunds excels at this?  

 

 

 

He's neither been excellent against the pass or run this season.

 

His 116 passer rating and 4 TD passes allowed this season are very poor.

 

His effort and execution on that Cam Newton touchdown run was just embarrassing.............he should have put Cam on his shell there.

 

But it's not like there are tons of good off-ball LB's in the NFL.........it's a devalued position and MOST of the really good ones are in the NFC.

 

So ultimately the big issue is the lack of plays he makes on the football.

 

Turnover differential is the most reliably decisive stat this side of the actual scoreboard and if you don't have a nose for the ball you aren't going to be a difference maker.    

 

His lack of forced or collected turnovers over the course of 3 full seasons is astonishing considering the opportunities.    

 

He's just not proven instinctive enough as an off-ball LB for his play to match his physical skill.   

 

Edited December 29, 2020 by BADOLBILZ