Weekly PFF Hate

[JakeFrommStateFarm]

Not sure I follow. Darnold was 19/32 for 179 yards and 1 td.

 

How is that better than Allen?

 

Is their formula secret ?

Edited September 23, 2020 by JakeFrommStateFarm

[BruceVilanch]

On 9/21/2020 at 12:52 PM, machine gun kelly said:

“You know you’re a funny guy Tommy”.  “That’s it Hendry, I think you’d fold unda questioning!  “You r a funny guy, ya sidewinda”!  “That’s it”

 

I love that movie.

Funny how?

[4merper4mer]

6 hours ago, AirAllenPower said:

I'm curious how pff would grade John Elway and Brett Favre 

 

Seriously 

It depends on what they said before Elway and Favre were drafted.

[Doc]

22 minutes ago, JakeFrommStateFarm said:

Not sure I follow. Darnold was 19/32 for 179 yards and 1 td.

 

How is that better than Allen?

 

Is their formula secret ?

Yes. And stupid. 

[JohnNord]

Here’s another attempt to diminish Josh’s performance versus over the past two weeks:

 

 

On 9/21/2020 at 11:01 PM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I think that notion is far-fetched; I think where the bias you allude to may operate is when the PFF commentators are writing articles and yapping - er, I mean commenting - about Allen.

 

If I understand their system correctly, they have a group of workers grading each QB play - three or something like that.  Those aren't the people who made the pre-draft predictions, they have no skin in the game, it's highly doubtful they have a particular bias against Allen, they're just flunkies trained to grade a play using specified metrics.  So they do their thing, and their grades get averaged or added or whatever it is PFF does in their Special Secret Sauce, then all the play grades get added and multiplied and crunched and munched.   It's hard to conceive that all the flunkies have an anti Allen bias.  It's supposed to be objective, but the key point - it's objective using the specified metrics.  So if the metrics are flawed or biased, the grade will be flawed or biased.

I think there is bias, but it's more impersonal and deeper into the system.  It's a grading system designed to penalize risk and incentivize caution, and it doesn't look at game outcomes or offensive productivity.  That's why you can get a QB like Darnold who passed for only 179 yds and 1 TD in a loss, but who completed a high percentage and didn't put the football at risk, graded higher than Allen.  That's how you get a QB like Tyrod Taylor in 2016 with the Bills rated as the #11 QB that year.  He passed for only 200 ypg on average, and only 17 TD in 15 games, but by jinks he didn't throw "interceptable balls" like the guided missile Diggs tucked away despite two defenders who were right there trying to pluck it. 

 

 

 

 

Wonderful explanation...thank you 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

I wouldn't want to give them the free publicity, but if you roll that way, Buffalofanatics has got you!

(I'll stick with Buffalo -vs- Everybody)

 

[buffalo2218]

There’s always gonna be a narrative when it comes to this team. Not so much for being in a small market, but more of because of fear of eating words. Sure, we’re gonna have some outlets giving praise, but for the most part, others are desperately afraid of being wrong about Allen. 
 

 I won’t be surprised to see us running the ball more this week and play a little more ball control. Allen’s numbers may drop quite a bit compared to the first 2 games. But then again,!it seems like he’s a lot more motivated and could end up shredding the Rams’ secondary. I’m sure Jalen Ramsey’s comments are still in the back of his mind

[Hapless Bills Fan]

27 minutes ago, JohnNord said:

Here’s another attempt to diminish Josh’s performance versus over the past two weeks:

 

 

Wonderful explanation...thank you 

 

You're welcome.

 

Who the Hell is Steven Ruiz and why should we care? "Haven't watched him closely yet" - if he watched, he'd see that Josh's OL was brilliant at giving him time the last 2 weeks, and he took full advantage.  He made some good throws rolling out and on the run, but he also missed some "bunnies" because he didn't re-set and/or he let technique lapse while on the run. 

 

I have no idea what his numbers are or what their source is.   They are labeled "Grades".  Whose grades?  By what criteria?

 

1 hour ago, JakeFrommStateFarm said:

Not sure I follow. Darnold was 19/32 for 179 yards and 1 td.

 

How is that better than Allen?

 

Is their formula secret ?

 

I think so, yeah.  Here's an article where they puff off explain the general philosophy of their method, but if you can find any actual details or formula for it, anywhere on the Interwebs, I will eat my hair starting at the root ends.  And I'm not eating my hair, save for the occasional random strand that floats into my spaghetti.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

34 minutes ago, JohnNord said:

Here’s another attempt to diminish Josh’s performance versus over the past two weeks:

 

 

Wonderful explanation...thank you 

below average when not under pressure = 71% 78% if you take out the 4 drops for over 7.3 YPA.

 

i hope opposing defenses read this ‘piece’ and decide not to pressure and force more of this below average play. 🙄 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

Just read an article on the Athletic about the PFF system, sounds like Fairburn contracted them to understand why.   Not endorsing or complaining,  just summarizing some of the points given of how their grades are determined:

 

The explanation given is they aren't grading purely off stats.  For example QB's will get negative grades for passes that could have been intercepted, but given a positive grade for dropped passes.  Also the QB doesn't get as much credit for completing a pass to a wide open receiver, in that case the receiver gets the better grade for getting himself open where as throwing a completion into a tight window does give the QB better grades.

 

It also stated, (didn't exactly understand the logic here), but negative grades will make the grades worse early in the season when less data to analyze where as the season progresses, you don't notice the negative stuff in the overall score as much.  It also stated that it's easier for a QB to generate negative grades than positive ones.

 

It gave a couple of examples of scores given prior where fans and even coaches screamed about them

 

Aaron Rodgers had a grade of -.08, which was average and he threw for 333 yards, 5 TD's, zero interceptions. But he also had a fumble, a dropped int and 3 TD's  credited more to great  plays by Randall Cobb. McCarthy screamed about the grades, but last summer, he met with them and went over that game and came away with a good understanding of why the score was bad and agreed that their assessment was accurate.

 

Another game Nick Foles threw 400 yards, 7 TD's  and zero ints and had a score around what Allen got.  Kelly the coach at the time went nuts too, but again after sitting down with them and understanding what goes into their grading system, came away as a believer.

 

So to some of the points above, is their grading system secret? no but alot more than the obvious goes into it?  Like to see how they'd grade Farve, well Rodgers didn't make out too well!

[QCity]

57 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

Just read an article on the Athletic about the PFF system, sounds like Fairburn contracted them to understand why.   Not endorsing or complaining,  just summarizing some of the points given of how their grades are determined:

 

The explanation given is they aren't grading purely off stats.  For example QB's will get negative grades for passes that could have been intercepted, but given a positive grade for dropped passes.  Also the QB doesn't get as much credit for completing a pass to a wide open receiver, in that case the receiver gets the better grade for getting himself open where as throwing a completion into a tight window does give the QB better grades.

 

 

 

Excellent article that was pretty insightful. Allen had more positive plays than any other QB last week, but he takes a slight hit for negative plays. “When you look at our data historically, the positively graded throws tend to fluctuate more than the negatives,” Palazzolo said. “It’s somewhat intuitive. A quarterback controls his negatives more than his positives."

 

I thought it was fascinating that Mike McCarthy met with them to go over Rodgers' 5TD 0 INT game and actually came away in agreement with PFF.

 

The day Nick Foles threw for over 400 yards, seven touchdowns and zero interceptions for Kelly’s Eagles, his PFF grade was on par with Allen’s from Sunday. And that was mostly a result of how open the receivers were due to their own talent and Kelly’s scheme.

 

So the team at PFF walked Kelly through their process. Kelly pointed out observations PFF graders made that he and his staff would never look at, but that just meant they did things differently. Once Kelly realized how much they knew and the value of the information they had, he became an investor in the company.

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, QCity said:

 

Excellent article that was pretty insightful. Allen had more positive plays than any other QB last week, but he takes a slight hit for negative plays. “When you look at our data historically, the positively graded throws tend to fluctuate more than the negatives,” Palazzolo said. “It’s somewhat intuitive. A quarterback controls his negatives more than his positives."

 

I thought it was fascinating that Mike McCarthy met with them to go over Rodgers' 5TD 0 INT game and actually came away in agreement with PFF.

 

The day Nick Foles threw for over 400 yards, seven touchdowns and zero interceptions for Kelly’s Eagles, his PFF grade was on par with Allen’s from Sunday. And that was mostly a result of how open the receivers were due to their own talent and Kelly’s scheme.

 

So the team at PFF walked Kelly through their process. Kelly pointed out observations PFF graders made that he and his staff would never look at, but that just meant they did things differently. Once Kelly realized how much they knew and the value of the information they had, he became an investor in the company.

Chip Kelly’s endorsement is a positive?

[thebandit27]

8 minutes ago, QCity said:

 

Excellent article that was pretty insightful. Allen had more positive plays than any other QB last week, but he takes a slight hit for negative plays. “When you look at our data historically, the positively graded throws tend to fluctuate more than the negatives,” Palazzolo said. “It’s somewhat intuitive. A quarterback controls his negatives more than his positives."

 

I thought it was fascinating that Mike McCarthy met with them to go over Rodgers' 5TD 0 INT game and actually came away in agreement with PFF.

 

The day Nick Foles threw for over 400 yards, seven touchdowns and zero interceptions for Kelly’s Eagles, his PFF grade was on par with Allen’s from Sunday. And that was mostly a result of how open the receivers were due to their own talent and Kelly’s scheme.

 

So the team at PFF walked Kelly through their process. Kelly pointed out observations PFF graders made that he and his staff would never look at, but that just meant they did things differently. Once Kelly realized how much they knew and the value of the information they had, he became an investor in the company.

I’m sorry, but any analysis that puts Sam Darnold ahead of Josh Allen for week 2 of the 2020 season is deeply, deeply flawed.

[QCity]

4 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

I’m sorry, but any analysis that puts Sam Darnold ahead of Josh Allen for week 2 of the 2020 season is deeply, deeply flawed.

 

Try reading the article. You might learn something.

[syhuang]

6 minutes ago, QCity said:

 

Try reading the article. You might learn something.

 

The following are what I posted on Monday regarding Darnold's week 2 performance. It's seems like PFF give too much credits for "safer" throw while not helping teams to win:

 

 

I watched Jets game yesterday since I'm in 49ers' local market and I have to say Darnold was even unimpressed yesterday than that first game. Majority of his completions were short passes and no one (except probably die-hard Jets fans and  PFF) would say those are short passes picking apart defense. Many are 5-yard WR out pattern to sideline. Darnold was 21/32 for 179 yards yesterday while 74 yards were from the garbage time with 3:07 left in the game trailing 7-31 and 49ers in prevent D. He was 16/27 (59%) for 105 yards before then. It's really weird that his performance could be considered better.

 

Furthermore:

 

 

 

Edited September 24, 2020 by syhuang

[HOUSE]

Josh has never thrown for 500 yards EVER......

 

 

 

[Kelly the Dog]

14 minutes ago, QCity said:

 

Try reading the article. You might learn something.

Whenever I come across a difference of opinion like this, I apply a simple rule: If eight billion out of eight billion people on the planet think Josh Allen’s game was better, Allen’s game was better. 

[thebandit27]

14 minutes ago, QCity said:

 

Try reading the article. You might learn something.

What if I’ve read their contrived nonsense for years and years, about how “no no you see, NFL coaches consistently realize how PFF is right and they’re wrong”, only to see ridiculous rankings that put an absolutely 💩show performance ahead of a 417 yard, 4 TD day?

 

Should I still read yet another 💩piece from them?

[Just Joshin']

9 minutes ago, QCity said:

 

Try reading the article. You might learn something.

I did and learned that their methodology is flawed.  If Allen rifles a throw into tight coverage and makes the play, it is a negative because it could have been intercepted.  Feels good on first review.

 

Now let's put some context:  if he completes a checkdown on third down the throw counts more than the above throw to convert the 3rd and keep the drive going.  He made the throw and it was not almost intercepted, here is a cookie.  Team lost but nice throw.

 

In the case above what if Allen knew it would be close but he also knew he had the strength and touch to make the play.  So he gets punished?

 

Playing the "what if" game is a losers analysis.  Over the course of time those things will even out.  If he is reckless then it will show up in the stats.  if he is successful, it will show up in the stats. 

 

Context is also important on when in the game the plays occur:  is it garbage time with a prevent?  Does that score positive points vs a hard fought first half?

 

So back to @thebandit27 question: do you consider Darnold's performance better than Allen's last week?

[K-9]

3 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

What if I’ve read their contrived nonsense for years and years, about how “no no you see, NFL coaches consistently realize how PFF is right and they’re wrong”, only to see ridiculous rankings that put an absolutely 💩show performance ahead of a 417 yard, 4 TD day?

 

Should I still read yet another 💩piece from them?

When you’ve read crap after crap from them for years, it’s safe to assume that the next thing you read from them will also be crap. 

[TheElectricCompany]

As mentioned before, Josh and statistics historically don't mix, which caused years of takes that JA was trash (I'm guilty).  The last two games have been uncharted territory.

 

If he continues to play like a top 5 QB, the statistics will match up fairly quickly.

 

The 'PFF is ####" takes are pretty dramatic, as they've' clearly shown value to NFL teams. Data is only part of player analysis, and you have to known when to take it with a grain, or gallon, of salt.

Edited September 24, 2020 by TheElectricCompany

[QCity]

20 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

only to see ridiculous rankings that put an absolutely 💩show performance ahead of a 417 yard, 4 TD day?

 

 

 

I'm not saying PFF is infallible, I'm merely trying to explain their methodology -- and I understand that may be nigh impossible to some here. You can't use 3 or 4 stats to discount their conclusions. We already have metrics to compare QB's based on throwing stats like passer rating and QBR.

 

I'll illustrate this one more time using an extreme example, and then I'll bow out to let the PFF bashing party resume.

 

Let's say QB #1 goes 0/20 for 0 yards, 0 TD 0 INT. Every single pass is absolutely perfect - on time, hits each receiver right between the numbers into both hands, but is dropped. 20 dropped passes!

 

QB #2 goes 14/20 for 200 yards, 2 TD 1 INT.

 

Yup, PFF is going to grade QB #1 higher, even though he didn't complete a single pass! He had ZERO yards throwing! Are they nuts?!? Their rationale is, "Look, QB #1 did everything perfectly, get him some receivers that can catch and that line would be 20/20 for 300 yards 3TD 0INT.

 

Again, I'm not saying this is the best way to compare players, but you can't point at stats to claim their method is hogwash because it's really not a results-driven methodology.

[GoBills808]

Just now, QCity said:

 

I'm not saying PFF is infallible, I'm merely trying to explain their methodology -- and I understand that may be nigh impossible to some here. You can't use 3 or 4 stats to discount their conclusions. We already have metrics to compare QB's based on throwing stats like passer rating and QBR.

 

I'll illustrate this one more time using an extreme example, and then I'll bow out to let the PFF bashing party resume.

 

Let's say QB #1 goes 0/20 for 0 yards, 0 TD 0 INT. Every single pass is absolutely perfect - on time, hits each receiver right between the numbers into both hands, but is dropped. 20 dropped passes!

 

QB #2 goes 14/20 for 200 yards, 2 TD 1 INT.

 

Yup, PFF is going to grade QB #1 higher, even though he didn't complete a single pass! He had ZERO yards throwing! Are they nuts?!? Their rationale is, "Look, QB #1 did everything perfectly, get him some receivers that can catch and that line would be 20/20 for 300 yards 3TD 0INT.

 

Again, I'm not saying this is the best way to compare players, but you can't point at stats to claim their method is hogwash because it's really not a results-driven methodology.

Allen had the highest drop% in the league last year, did he score well w/PFF?

[eball]

50 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

What if I’ve read their contrived nonsense for years and years, about how “no no you see, NFL coaches consistently realize how PFF is right and they’re wrong”, only to see ridiculous rankings that put an absolutely 💩show performance ahead of a 417 yard, 4 TD day?

 

Should I still read yet another 💩piece from them?

I don’t know why you’re complaining. After all, Bruce Gradkowski reviews all of the QB ratings. 🤦🏻‍♂️
 

If you’ve ever heard Bruce Gradkowski on the radio you know why this not a compliment. 

[thebandit27]

27 minutes ago, QCity said:

 

I'm not saying PFF is infallible, I'm merely trying to explain their methodology -- and I understand that may be nigh impossible to some here. You can't use 3 or 4 stats to discount their conclusions. We already have metrics to compare QB's based on throwing stats like passer rating and QBR.

 

I'll illustrate this one more time using an extreme example, and then I'll bow out to let the PFF bashing party resume.

 

Let's say QB #1 goes 0/20 for 0 yards, 0 TD 0 INT. Every single pass is absolutely perfect - on time, hits each receiver right between the numbers into both hands, but is dropped. 20 dropped passes!

 

QB #2 goes 14/20 for 200 yards, 2 TD 1 INT.

 

Yup, PFF is going to grade QB #1 higher, even though he didn't complete a single pass! He had ZERO yards throwing! Are they nuts?!? Their rationale is, "Look, QB #1 did everything perfectly, get him some receivers that can catch and that line would be 20/20 for 300 yards 3TD 0INT.

 

Again, I'm not saying this is the best way to compare players, but you can't point at stats to claim their method is hogwash because it's really not a results-driven methodology.

And if their grades came within a light year of matching the eye test, that’d be one thing.

 

They don’t match either the raw stats or the eye test a huge amount of the time.

 

20 minutes ago, eball said:

I don’t know why you’re complaining. After all, Bruce Gradkowski reviews all of the QB ratings. 🤦🏻‍♂️
 

If you’ve ever heard Bruce Gradkowski on the radio you know why this not a compliment. 

I interviewed Grads when he was in college. Good dude honestly.

[K-9]

32 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Allen had the highest drop% in the league last year, did he score well w/PFF?

According to other stat compiler,  Allen was the most impacted by dropped passes. But not according to PFF, who had Wentz, Brady, and Prescott at 1,2, and 3. 

[GoBills808]

Just now, K-9 said:

According to other stat compiler,  Allen was the most impacted by dropped passes. But not according to PFF, who had Wentz, Brady, and Prescott at 1,2, and 3. 

Ah yes of course.

[eball]

34 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

I interviewed Grads when he was in college. Good dude honestly.

 

Oh, he sounds like an incredibly good dude.  I’m talking about the mental sharpness...

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

2 hours ago, QCity said:

 

Excellent article that was pretty insightful. Allen had more positive plays than any other QB last week, but he takes a slight hit for negative plays. “When you look at our data historically, the positively graded throws tend to fluctuate more than the negatives,” Palazzolo said. “It’s somewhat intuitive. A quarterback controls his negatives more than his positives."

 

I thought it was fascinating that Mike McCarthy met with them to go over Rodgers' 5TD 0 INT game and actually came away in agreement with PFF.

 

The day Nick Foles threw for over 400 yards, seven touchdowns and zero interceptions for Kelly’s Eagles, his PFF grade was on par with Allen’s from Sunday. And that was mostly a result of how open the receivers were due to their own talent and Kelly’s scheme.

 

So the team at PFF walked Kelly through their process. Kelly pointed out observations PFF graders made that he and his staff would never look at, but that just meant they did things differently. Once Kelly realized how much they knew and the value of the information they had, he became an investor in the company.

 

The other two things I thought were rather insightful was the comment that:

 

The thing that is separating Josh Allen’s grade from Russell Wilson or Aaron Rodgers, who have similar numbers through two games, are the turnover-worthy plays.

 

Also that the Bills are 5th highest in the league in yards after catch.  So that is something that the receivers get credit for, but not the QB.  Who knows how many yards that actually was, but may have taken Allen down from 417 yards to 325 or so, not a bad day, but not in the stratosphere either.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

2 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

What if I’ve read their contrived nonsense for years and years, about how “no no you see, NFL coaches consistently realize how PFF is right and they’re wrong”, only to see ridiculous rankings that put an absolutely 💩show performance ahead of a 417 yard, 4 TD day?

 

Should I still read yet another 💩piece from them?

 

So did you watch every pass likely in an All 22 format of both Bills game and the Jets game to come to your conclusion?  And did you have a 2nd person using the identical criteria that you use also review your conclusions?

 

2 hours ago, Just Joshin' said:

I did and learned that their methodology is flawed.  If Allen rifles a throw into tight coverage and makes the play, it is a negative because it could have been intercepted.  Feels good on first review.

 

Now let's put some context:  if he completes a checkdown on third down the throw counts more than the above throw to convert the 3rd and keep the drive going.  He made the throw and it was not almost intercepted, here is a cookie.  Team lost but nice throw.

 

In the case above what if Allen knew it would be close but he also knew he had the strength and touch to make the play.  So he gets punished?

 

Playing the "what if" game is a losers analysis.  Over the course of time those things will even out.  If he is reckless then it will show up in the stats.  if he is successful, it will show up in the stats. 

 

Context is also important on when in the game the plays occur:  is it garbage time with a prevent?  Does that score positive points vs a hard fought first half?

 

So back to @thebandit27 question: do you consider Darnold's performance better than Allen's last week?

 

I read the article, I didn't see where it stated that.  What it said was the pass into the flat that could have been intercepted for a pick six hurt him.

 

The article also talked about how they have a small number of people who do the evaluations and are all well trained in the system.  Every evaluation is reviewed by a 2nd person before publishing and QB performance is reviewed by a third person.  They also are using the same identical criteria for every game.

 

They don't have bias as opposed to all the fans here which again is short for fanatic.   One thing I'm certain of every person who posts on this site is about 100 times more bias than a company that is doing this for a living.   It's amazing how anytime a thread praises the Bills, that guy is a genius, he gets it, but talk bad about the Bills and that article is worthless and they are all idiots.  But that's what happens when you read every post wearing Bills colored glasses.

 

 

[GoBills808]

It's almost as if they stand to lose a ton of credibility if Allen is actually a good quarterback

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 hours ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

Just read an article on the Athletic about the PFF system, sounds like Fairburn contracted them to understand why.   Not endorsing or complaining,  just summarizing some of the points given of how their grades are determined:

(....)

So to some of the points above, is their grading system secret? no

 

Sorry @Ed_Formerly_of_Roch, but it's secret.

 

After reading that article (or perusing any other publically available information on the Interwebs Anywhere), could you watch a game and reproduce their grade?

Could I?  Could the Analytics department of the Eagles?

 

The answer is "No".  They have proprietary criteria on which they grade each play.  Therefore, Yes.  Their grading system is, in fact, secret.  Think it isn't?

OK - calculate their grade for yourself, or even just explain (in detail, play by play) how to do it.  You can't.  You don't know the details.

 

Reading an article with vague criteria that really doesn't add much info over their own link https://www.pff.com/news/pro-how-pff-grades-quarterback-play does not mean their grading system is not secret.  It just means they're willing to try to "sell" it by offering an explanation in vague, general terms.

 

The real question is whether it identifies actual winning QB play?  And the answer seems to be "um no, not really"  There's not a football knowledgeable human on the planet who would argue that Josh Allen wasn't key and integral to the Bills win in Miami, or against the Jets.  Ditto with regard to his level of play being higher than several of the QB the PFF system rated higher.

 

'nuf said.

[thebandit27]

43 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

So did you watch every pass likely in an All 22 format of both Bills game and the Jets game to come to your conclusion?  And did you have a 2nd person using the identical criteria that you use also review your conclusions?

 

 

I read the article, I didn't see where it stated that.  What it said was the pass into the flat that could have been intercepted for a pick six hurt him.

 

The article also talked about how they have a small number of people who do the evaluations and are all well trained in the system.  Every evaluation is reviewed by a 2nd person before publishing and QB performance is reviewed by a third person.  They also are using the same identical criteria for every game.

 

They don't have bias as opposed to all the fans here which again is short for fanatic.   One thing I'm certain of every person who posts on this site is about 100 times more bias than a company that is doing this for a living.   It's amazing how anytime a thread praises the Bills, that guy is a genius, he gets it, but talk bad about the Bills and that article is worthless and they are all idiots.  But that's what happens when you read every post wearing Bills colored glasses.

 

 

Yes, I watch the all-22. Every week. Twice actually.

 

But that isn’t really the point. If your premise here is “but they have a formula”, then my response is “well I have my eyes”.

 

And I can absolutely, 100% guarantee that 32 out of 32 head coaches would agree that Allen’s week 2 performance was a great deal better than Darnold’s.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

49 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

I read the article, I didn't see where it stated that.  What it said was the pass into the flat that could have been intercepted for a pick six hurt him.

 

They have a 'statistic' they tout (that is part of their QB rating system) called "turnover worthy" or "interceptable" passes meaning passes that could have been intercepted but weren't.  It would not just be that errant pass to Brown that hit a Miami player in the hands - it would include passes like the shot to Brown who was flanked by two defenders, the early sideline pass to Knox in last year's Pittsburgh game - passes that Josh and his receiver both have faith he can get there before the D reacts, but that score as "turnover worthy" to PFF.

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

Also that the Bills are 5th highest in the league in yards after catch.  So that is something that the receivers get credit for, but not the QB.

 

Great example of why their system is useless.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

Great example of why their system is useless.

 

Yep.  Considering that it's been a big (and fair!) knock on various QB that while they're completing passes, their placement doesn't allow the receiver to rack up YAC.

[4merper4mer]

5 hours ago, QCity said:

 

I'm not saying PFF is infallible, I'm merely trying to explain their methodology -- and I understand that may be nigh impossible to some here. You can't use 3 or 4 stats to discount their conclusions. We already have metrics to compare QB's based on throwing stats like passer rating and QBR.

 

I'll illustrate this one more time using an extreme example, and then I'll bow out to let the PFF bashing party resume.

 

Let's say QB #1 goes 0/20 for 0 yards, 0 TD 0 INT. Every single pass is absolutely perfect - on time, hits each receiver right between the numbers into both hands, but is dropped. 20 dropped passes!

 

QB #2 goes 14/20 for 200 yards, 2 TD 1 INT.

 

Yup, PFF is going to grade QB #1 higher, even though he didn't complete a single pass! He had ZERO yards throwing! Are they nuts?!? Their rationale is, "Look, QB #1 did everything perfectly, get him some receivers that can catch and that line would be 20/20 for 300 yards 3TD 0INT.

 

Again, I'm not saying this is the best way to compare players, but you can't point at stats to claim their method is hogwash because it's really not a results-driven methodology.

Now I understand how Tre White is the 18th best CB in the NFL.  Thanks.

[Warcodered]

 

[BruceVilanch]

This is from the Athletic so you gotta pay, but they actually get into the weeds on how they grade players, I still think it's garbage but here is a snippet about Josh Allen:

 

If the grading system simply plucked from the stats, it wouldn’t be much of a system at all. Those who are trained in Pro Football Focus’ grading system get a 350-page manual on what to look for at each position. Players are assigned a score on each play up to +2 or as low as -2 in increments of 0.5. The scores are determined by attempting to isolate the quarterback’s play from those around him. A quarterback still gets credit for a good throw if a receiver drops a pass. Conversely, if a defensive back drops an interception, the quarterback is still penalized for the throw. While it’s subjective in some ways, it’s not guess work. They’re basing a grade on having watched thousands of plays across the league over many years.

 

Let’s use Allen as an example. He threw for 417 yards and four touchdowns. He pushed the ball down the field and made some challenging throws. If Stefon Diggs is running wide open, Diggs might get more of the credit for a big play in the passing game than Allen would in PFF’s grading system. On Sunday, Allen had two passes that were nearly intercepted. One would have been an easy pick six. Those dropped his grade slightly.

“We grade positives and negatives,” Palazzolo said. “He has more positively graded plays through two weeks than any other quarterback. It’s easy to remember those and forget the negatives. Because through two weeks, the negatives just haven’t come back to bite him.

“I don’t think people understand how we do it, because we’re just grading production and how you played. We’re not grading velocity on the ball necessarily or knee bend by a left tackle. So a lot of people can’t comprehend it.”

 

 

[1ManRaid]

"Those who are trained in Pro Football Focus’ grading system get a 350-page manual on what to look for at each position. Players are assigned a score on each play up to +2 or as low as -2 in increments of 0.5."

 

Thats the only new information.  And why don't they factor things like velocity?  That's an important weapon he uses to be more effective.  Firing balls through tight windows can be huge and should be scored highly rather than docked for being "risky".