Josh's passing stats for 2019 aren't as bad as many people think.

[TwistofFate]

10 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Yes they do. If anything, the official drop statistics give too much leeway to the receiver. There have been several times where I have looked at a game's official drop statistics and been able to distinctly remember more drops than officially recorded. A drop is seemingly only officially recorded if the receiver isn't so much as breathed on by a defender and the ball hits him directly in the hands.

That is so wrong I don't know where to begin.   If the ball hits you in the hands and you don't catch it it's a drop. We're not talking about passes defended we're talking about drops.  

 

Drop statistic do not take into account how bad the pass was only if it hit the receiver in the hands and they dropped it.

 

What is Drops?

This statistic counts the number of times an intended receiver touches the ball but fails to catch it.  If the ball is thrown but the receiver never gets his hands on it, it is not recorded as a drop.  It is recorded by some teams and publications, but not officially by the NFL.

Sporting Charts explains Dropped Pass - Drops

Dropping passes is an accepted part of the game, but professional receivers are expected to catch every ball thrown their way that is not batted down by a defender or outside their reach.  As such, dropped passes are recorded to keep track of which receivers are actually catching the ball when they are supposed to.  Typically and on average, a professional receiver will drop about 8-9 passes over the course of a season.  The widely recognized leader of passes dropped for a season is Terrell Owens, but finding exact numbers is difficult.

Edited May 15, 2020 by TwistofFate

[TwistofFate]

16 minutes ago, BillsFanThru-N-Thru said:

Beg to differ ...

This standard says drops are "incomplete passes where the receiver SHOULD have caught the pass with ORDINARY effort."

Basically, we're talking about blatant drops, not the ones where your old man leans over and says anything that grazed the receiver anywhere was a drop in his day.

"Only use this if the receiver is 100 percent at fault and no one else can be blamed for the incompletion," ESPN tells its game charters. "Pass interference that wasn't called/passes thrown just outside the receiver's reach, etc., are NOT drops."

Beg to differ all you would like it's right there in black and white.  If it's outside the receivers reach that means the receiver never touched it which means it's not a drop it's an incompletion.

[BillsFanThru-N-Thru]

4 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

Beg to differ all you would like it's right there in black and white.  If it's outside the receivers reach that means the receiver never touched it which means it's not a drop it's an incompletion.

OR  you could have highlighted ...

 

This standard says drops are "incomplete passes where the receiver SHOULD have caught the pass with ORDINARY effort."

 

[TwistofFate]

2 minutes ago, BillsFanThru-N-Thru said:

OR  you could have highlighted ...

 

This standard says drops are "incomplete passes where the receiver SHOULD have caught the pass with ORDINARY effort."

 

Whats ordinary effort?  Your ordinary effort could be different than mine. 

 

Is jumping ordinary effort?

 

Is stopping to change direction and catch a pass thrown behind you ordinary effort? 

 

Is tracking the ball thrown over the wrong shoulder considered ordinary effort? 

 

Is lunging ordinary effort? 

 

[BillsFanThru-N-Thru]

1 minute ago, TwistofFate said:

Whats ordinary effort?  Your ordinary effort could be different than mine. 

 

Is jumping ordinary effort?

 

Is stopping to change direction and catch a pass thrown behind you ordinary effort? 

 

Is tracking the ball thrown over the wrong shoulder considered ordinary effort? 

 

Is lunging ordinary effort? 

 

My definition of ordinary effort is irrelevant just as yours is.  The statistics are not based by me but by a statistician who is logging that information.   

[PromoTheRobot]

Josh attempts more tough throws than most QBs. What's better? Completing 3 checkdowns for 9 yards and punting? Or hitting one of three attempts for 15 yards for a first down?

[TwistofFate]

6 minutes ago, BillsFanThru-N-Thru said:

My definition of ordinary effort is irrelevant just as yours is.  The statistics are not based by me but by a statistician who is logging that information.   

Great so I'm going to use ESPN stats where you have no idea how to define the word ordinary. Wonderful.

[Lieutenant Aldo Raine]

3 minutes ago, BillsFanThru-N-Thru said:

My definition of ordinary effort is irrelevant just as yours is.  The statistics are not based by me but by a statistician who is logging that information.   

 

Good luck with that brother - @TwistofFate is the know-all be-all when it comes to QB play.  When Josh passes meets or surpasses his next metric, he'll just move the goalposts to continue with his charade.  

[billspro]

Allen just has to be willing to take more check downs.

[T master]

14 hours ago, tomur67 said:

       In 16 games Josh  completed 271 passes in 461 attempts for a 58.8%.  If he had 2 more completions per game, that would give him 303 completions for a 64.3% average, which is in the range of most NFL quarterbacks.  Yes, there are some QB's with higher completion averages.  For example,  Drew Brees  led the NFL with a 74.3 completion average, but his completion yardage was 2,979 yards, less than Josh's 3089 yards. It looks like Brees and a few other QB's are throwing a few more screen passes or dump off passes than Josh threw.  Plus you have to figure in drops.  All in all, I'm not worried at all about Josh"s accuracy issue,  In my humble opinion, it's not an issue.

 

I was reading a post that had a video of the drops that were made on some of Allen's passes not sure if they were over his 2 seasons but the immediate thought was if those passes were caught what would his percentage be ?

 

I think Allen will progress this year and given the upgrade at the WR position we should all see some change in his stats for the better this season !!

[TwistofFate]

6 minutes ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

 

Good luck with that brother - @TwistofFate is the know-all be-all when it comes to QB play.  When Josh passes meets or surpasses his next metric, he'll just move the goalposts to continue with his charade.  

I wont.  Proving me wrong means we have a franchise Qb, and that's something we can all get behind. 

 

Welcome to the show, what took so long? 

[Shaw66]

Josh has to be better.   

 

No one knows if he will get better.   

 

One's definition of drops may be fun to talk about, but who cares?   Josh has to be better.  

[Bangarang]

So basically, if we don’t manipulate the stats he’s a bottom tier passer. 
 

Luckily he’s a really good runner because I’d hate to see him having to rely solely on throwing the ball.

Edited May 15, 2020 by Bangarang

[BigBillsFan]

9 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

So basically, if we don’t manipulate the stats he’s a bottom tier passer. 
 

Luckily he’s a really good runner because I’d hate to see him having to rely solely on throwing the ball.

 

Sadly, even if you manipulate the numbers he's still in the bottom 3rd of passing.

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/stats/player/_/season/2019/seasontype/2/table/passing/sort/completionPct/dir/desc

[Don Otreply]

46 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

Whats ordinary effort?  Your ordinary effort could be different than mine. 

 

Is jumping ordinary effort?

 

Is stopping to change direction and catch a pass thrown behind you ordinary effort? 

 

Is tracking the ball thrown over the wrong shoulder considered ordinary effort? 

 

Is lunging ordinary effort? 

 

Ordinarily all the things you have listed are likely to happen multiple times per game. The deal is a lot of receivers don’t have the well rounded skill set to be able to do all those things well. Blame it on variations in human physiology and cognitive capacity. We have all seen drops that are not recorded as such, Zay Jones for instance... ??

 

Go Bills!!!

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, TwistofFate said:

That is so wrong I don't know where to begin.   If the ball hits you in the hands and you don't catch it it's a drop.

 

Then why did you say that statistic doesn't account for bad passes? I assure you it does, to a fault. If the ball is thrown a little high and the receiver has to jump for it, they would not consider that a drop even if it bounces off his hands.

[ngbills]

10 hours ago, TwistofFate said:

The video im going to post right now gets me in trouble, but this is the truth. 

 

People who are questionable of Allen see the things you don't think exist. 

 

 

 

This video shows all the weakness of Allen that people make excuses for. 

 

Take notice to several things throughout this video. 

 

1.  Clean pockets and amount of time Allen has to pass. 

 

2.  Ball placement of each throw.   Was it optimal placement to give the receiver YAC?  How far off the mark is each throw? 

 

3.  Count how many balls counted as DROPS, that were nearly impossible catches that receivers layed out for or jumped through the air or tried to become contortionists to catch. 

 

Allen's single greatest problem is his accuracy.  Thus far in his career he is stilled plagued by his biggest knock....consistency of his throws. 

 

I'm really at a loss that people can't objectively see his major weakness.

 

Can he light it up this year?  Yes.  Did they give him the tools to succeed?   Yes.  Is his accuracy still his biggest concern???   YES

 

Will he step up this season and take this franchise by the reins?????  "?"

 

Imo, history is not on his side. 

I am with you on this. People confuse seeing his weaknesses with hating him or this team. Do you you think his coaches dont see his weaknesses? I can 100% guarantee you that his coaches and if you take any of the 32 teams coaches they would see the same thing. His #1 problem is accuracy/consistency and #2 is decision making. He has compensated for that with his athleticism but that is not a long term recipe for success as a QB. Those that really want to dig into to this - go watch every pass for the top 10 QB's in the league. Then watch the same for Josh Allen. If you still see him being just as accurate and only impacted by drops or taking more chances, etc then you are just not being real. We all know he can make all the throws but its consistency making them. He still has handfuls of balls a game that are just not at the level he needs to be at. This is not high school or college. 

[FireChans]

10 hours ago, MJS said:

No, it's not adding attempts, it is completing two more of his already attempted passes per game (and Allen attempts less passes than most QB's as it is, having a smaller sample size and a smaller margin for error).

 

And really this highlights that there really isn't a big difference between 58.8% and the magical, arbitrary 60%. They are virtually the same.

 

Allen was over 60% as a passer for much of the season. He then faced some of the NFL's best defenses late in the year which dipped him below that number.

Unfortunately, 60% puts him squarely at 30th in the NFL last season

[thebandit27]

2 hours ago, TwistofFate said:

No, you aren't taking into consideration the On Target throws that he's one of the worst in the league for.

 

I posted a video in this link of the terrible throws he's made this season and how many drops are in that video are from horrific throws that receivers were diving all over the field in an attempt to catch?

 

Drop statistics do not calculate how bad of a pass it was the receiver was attempting to catch.

 

You are trying to make it cut and dry black and white as if it's simply the receiver just dropping perfect balls which clearly is not the case.

He’s not “one of the worst” in on-target throws; he’s 21st. That’s not even bottom 1/3.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/passing_advanced.htm

 

And for the record, his drop percentage was the worst in the league by a full percentage point.

Edited May 15, 2020 by thebandit27

[Straight Hucklebuck]

Allen threw for 193 ypg (take out the last game and he cracks 200 ypg), 30th in the league.

 

His completion percentage was 32nd. 

 

He was tied for 21st in TD passes. 

 

He was 24th in Rating. 

 

His offense scored 19.6 ppg. 

 

He is not an average NFL passer yet. 

 

[Penfield45]

15 hours ago, wvbillsfan said:

I’m not worried about Josh until he stops improving. We can talk drops, lack of the long ball, he was the third most pressured qb in the NFL, weapons, etc etc wash rinse and repeat. 
He looked better last year than he did the year before. Let’s see if he can repeat that. If he does......look out NFL

 

thing is this season he needs to take a massive leap. year 3 is make or break for many young QB's. Allens stats through 2 years isn't all that impressive so he really needs to have his breakout year next season. 

 

that said I have no doubt Beane will move on from Allen if he doesn't show real promise  in the next 2 seasons. we didn't risk our future in drafting him and we have more than enough talent on this team to package a deal to land draft picks 

[MJS]

36 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Unfortunately, 60% puts him squarely at 30th in the NFL last season

Which is a number we can win 10-11 games with and get into the playoffs with.

[MJS]

2 minutes ago, Penfield45 said:

 

thing is this season he needs to take a massive leap. year 3 is make or break for many young QB's. Allens stats through 2 years isn't all that impressive so he really needs to have his breakout year next season. 

 

that said I have no doubt Beane will move on from Allen if he doesn't show real promise  in the next 2 seasons. we didn't risk our future in drafting him and we have more than enough talent on this team to package a deal to land draft picks 

 

There's also the 5th year option.

 

And no, Allen doesn't need to take a massive leap. If he continues to progress how he has the past two years over the next 2-3 years he'll be just fine and the Bills will win a lot of games. And he'll get resigned.

 

If he plateaus in his development, that's when we have to consider moving on.

[FireChans]

11 minutes ago, MJS said:

Which is a number we can win 10-11 games with and get into the playoffs with.

Apparently so is 58%. He doesn’t need to improve at all, I guess.

Edited May 15, 2020 by FireChans

[MJS]

4 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Apparently so is 58%. He doesn’t need to improve at all, I guess.

I want to see him improve in yards and TD's. If he throws for 4,000 yards and 30 TD's, plus has his normal 500-600 yards rushing and 7-8 rushing TD's, I really wouldn't care if he has a 58.8% completion percentage.

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, MJS said:

I want to see him improve in yards and TD's. If he throws for 4,000 yards and 30 TD's, plus has his normal 500-600 yards rushing and 7-8 rushing TD's, I really wouldn't care if he has a 58.8% completion percentage.

Why? His numbers last year were good enough to win 10 games and a playoff berth. He’s arrived. 

 

Do you see why your argument was silly yet?

[purple haze]

Ultimately, Allen might never be a statistical darling.  That doesn't mean he isn't effective or a difference-maker for the team.  He already is.  Would love to see him turn into one of the greats of all time.  He has that physical talent.  But if he doesn't,  he can still be a champion.

[John from Riverside]

Get so tired of letting pass catcher's off the hook when it comes to Josh Allen

 

Plenty of other QBs have guys that will come up with a ball that is not thrown perfectly every time......if it hits their hands...they should catch it.

[MJS]

3 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Why? His numbers last year were good enough to win 10 games and a playoff berth. He’s arrived. 

 

Do you see why your argument was silly yet?

Because I want him to be an elite QB. I don't think completion percentage is as important as TD's and yards. What's silly?

[SCBills]

Deep ball accuracy was an issue... I think we can all agree on that.  
 

Short to Mid, he’s fine, and in the 10-20 yard range Josh throws one of the best darts in the league.  

 

I don’t think it’s a secret he had a mediocre receiving core last year and was among the league leaders in being affected by drops.  
 

Diggs alone probably accounts for those two more catches per game that the OP is referencing, and that doesn’t even account for slotting Brown down to the #2, Beasley to the #3, improved depth and Josh - hopefully - spending the summer working on his deep ball. 

[FireChans]

Just now, MJS said:

Because I want him to be an elite QB. I don't think completion percentage is as important as TD's and yards. What's silly?

Well using the “that number is good enough for the playoffs” argument is really silly when you could say that about all of Josh’s numbers last year. He doesn’t even have to work on fumbles, it was good enough for the playoffs! 

 

Secondly, if you peruse the last few years, there are not a lot of good QB’s who throw for 4K yards and complete less than 60% of their throws. The two I could find in the last few years was Jameis and Bortles, both in bad seasons.

8 minutes ago, MJS said:

I want to see him improve in yards and TD's. If he throws for 4,000 yards and 30 TD's, plus has his normal 500-600 yards rushing and 7-8 rushing TD's, I really wouldn't care if he has a 58.8% completion percentage.

 

[dakrider]

3 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Yes they do. If anything, the official drop statistics give too much leeway to the receiver. There have been several times where I have looked at a game's official drop statistics and been able to distinctly remember more drops than officially recorded. A drop is seemingly only officially recorded if the receiver isn't so much as breathed on by a defender and the ball hits him directly in the hands.

Exactly.  There's a few passes every game where the receiver has a decent chance to get the ball but is beaten by their defender and the Bills receivers are on the low end of the scale of beating their defenders for balls.   If Josh can make 1 better throw a game, and his receivers have .5 less drops per game along with receivers actively beating out their defender .5 passes per game - there you easily have your 2 more catches per game.  Obviously statistics don't usually line up evenly but it is not a stretch to think Josh can improve his completion rate several percentage points. 

[MJS]

2 hours ago, FireChans said:

Well using the “that number is good enough for the playoffs” argument is really silly when you could say that about all of Josh’s numbers last year. He doesn’t even have to work on fumbles, it was good enough for the playoffs! 

 

Secondly, if you peruse the last few years, there are not a lot of good QB’s who throw for 4K yards and complete less than 60% of their throws. The two I could find in the last few years was Jameis and Bortles, both in bad seasons.

 

I don't expect him to have less than 60% completion percentage for long. But if he does I don't care if he is throwing and running for a lot of TD's and winning games. Completion percentage is not one of my worries.

 

But I understand that fans want him to have a higher completion percentage. Their opinions are just as valid. We'll see how Josh progresses.

 

And yes, the number one area I want to see Josh improve is in fumbling, especially in those key moments. If he wants to be a runner, and he is great at it, he needs to take care of the football while doing it. He's already shown that he can rein in the INT's so let's see him do the same thing with fumbles.

Edited May 15, 2020 by MJS

[Alphadawg7]

Let me start by saying a lot of people discussing Allen's accuracy are...well for a lack of a better word...wrong.  Even in instances where their conclusion is probably say the most accurate one, the logic they used to get there is often incomplete and got the right answer really because you had a 50% chance to do so given there are only 2 answers to the question at hand.

1. First issue:  Season total stat checking.  
   1. This is a terribly flawed way to make a determination of a question such as "Is Josh Allen inaccurate or accurate".  Stat sheets lack context, and worse yet, everyone is obsessed with YEAR END TOTALS versus tracking progression, identifying outlier games that heavily skew end results not properly reflecting the week to week performance of said player, especially when in relation to a young player.  
2. Second issue:  Failure to factor in all the variables that impact an individual's numbers/performance.  
   1. QB is the most complicated position in all of team sports, and the individual success can be impacted in any given game or moment by a number of mitigating factors.  Fans have an utter obsession of putting all the blame or praise on a QB in every single moment without taking into context of what was really happening.  

So lets address this question:  Is Josh Allen inaccurate to the point its a problem?  The answer is likely NO based on his first 2 seasons.  But with any young player, no definitive answer can be concluded today as he is still developing and that could go either direction.  But its clear as day, he is trending in the right direction and that Josh was pretty accurate last year despite the naysayers and the year end comp %.  

 

Like all developing players he has things to work on, but he clearly demonstrated last season that his accuracy concerns really shouldn't be there and that he has what it takes to be a 64% or better QB in the NFL.  The stat sheet shows under 60%, but thats an incomplete and lazy analysis of what REALLY happened.  

 

Lets look at the mitigating factors that lead to a more accurate assessment.

1. Start with the obvious and most glaring area of improvement Josh needed to focus on:  The Deep Ball.  Without question, this was a struggle, especially the first half of the year...but WHY is the better question.
   1. Starts the season with two WR's he had no experience with and timing takes time to develop, not to mention 9 new players on the offense overall.  That was Brown and Cole, and Cole isnt a deep ball WR.  Opposite these two guys were utter scrubs who lacked any real deep ball skills or threat.  
   2. Josh started the season trying too hard to get the ball downfield, like to that scrub Zay who often made poor efforts on balls as well, and the combo of this resulted in too many turnovers the first 4 weeks of the season.  
   3. NE Game - Can not over state this enough, this game changed Josh both for the good and a little bit for the worse (but minor and he eventually readjusted).  This is the game that even he says was the turning point.  After this game, Josh would only have 3 turnovers over the rest of the season.  He got smarter with the ball, and stopped making as many risky throws.  
      1. However...the negative, was that he also too worried of the INT and was trying to put the ball too far out in front where only his guy could get it way too often.  And this led to a lot of bad over throws downfield and further hindered his deep ball.  But once, the season wore on down the stretch and he started connecting on some, you could see the confidence come back and he was improving on the deep ball and hit some amazing throws.  
   4. BOTTOM LINE:  Josh's deep ball down the stretch of the season was significantly more successful than the first 2/3's of the season.  This was due to better personnel on the field, more timing with the newer additions, and more confidence in putting the ball in the right spot.  Had Josh been that way the whole season, he easily would have been over the 60% completion on just this alone.  Now add in elite WR Diggs who is also an elite deep threat, and its VERY EASY to be optimistic that he will again continue to improve in this area.
2. Bills led the NFL in dropped passes.  Nothing to say here other than duh, this clearly impacted his comp % and had we been average or above average instead of the worst, he would also have been above 60%.  And with a much improved arsenal of weapons for Josh in year 3, I think its a good bet we wont be anywhere near the bottom of the league in dropped passes this year.
3. Touched a bit on this in point one above (sub point 3), but the first 4 weeks and especially the NE game changed Josh's approach to in game decisions.
   1. After the NE game, it forced Josh to be more careful, and this resulted in a lot more throw aways which of course impacts his comp %.  Instead of letting his competitive drive push him into more risky or low % opportunities that could lead to turnovers, Josh was smart and threw the ball away more.  But, with Josh expected improvement and development with reading the D faster and also having better weapons who can get open quicker, this should result in less throw aways.
4. Josh was 4th in the NFL in downfield throws, meaning he takes more lower % shots than almost all other QB's.  And more importantly, we did not have a great personnel group to help Josh have more success in this area.  
   1. Personally, I love this about Josh.  I would take a 62% passer who pushes the ball down field constantly over a 71% passer who is a game manager and check down artist every single time.  
   2. We did not have the right group of guys around a QB like Josh the last 2 years.  We had some pieces, both veterans like Brown and a raw rookie like Knox, but ultimately, our group was not ideal for Josh's game as a full unit.  Seeing Cole running 25 yard routes makes me cringe every time, thats not his sweet spot.  Or watching him throw a 20 yard out to Roberts, McKenzie or worse Zay made me cringe as well.  But now, Knox should be better (too many dropsies as a rookie) and the WR group on paper looks to be one of the better units in the league for someone like Josh.  
5. Last, but not least, and probably most importantly:  IMPROVEMENT.  Josh made significant strides at every stop of his career and in short bursts.  
   1. Coming into the NFL, he never had top coaching or a talented roster around him.  In HS, he was a multi-sport athlete and didn't take football as a serious as it became for him.  Then he was at a JUCO and a weak school like Wyoming where he lacked real talent and high level coaching to harness all those gifts he has.  But once he stepped off the field for Wyoming for the last time and started working with Palmer, he made huge leaps leading up to the draft and rocked the combine too.  As a rookie, he was raw, and split reps in a 3 way QB battle yet preventing him from getting better prepared to start early.  Then he got put in halfway through the first game.  After getting hurt and sitting 4 weeks, he comes back looking like a completely different player and really showing great improvement. 
   2. Year 2 he comes in and makes substantial improvement in just about every area of his game from one season to the next...DESPITE the fact he had NINE new starters around him on offense, his weapons group to throw too was mediocre overall at best and had turnover throughout the season at WR where only McKenzie was a guy he had any prior experience with after Zay was traded (Foster didnt sniff the field much). 
   3. Has a terrible game week 4 and too many turnovers over those 4 weeks just to turn around and go for 21 TDs and just 3 turnovers from weeks 5-17, second in scoring ONLY to Lamar.  

Add all this up, and IF just ONE of those factors last year were different, he was already a 60% passer.  This kid is an f-ing gamer, is highly coachable, and is constantly improving.  Now Beane has also been constantly improving the roster around him and has fully set this kid up to start really taking the next steps.  

 

So, for me...sorry, if you think this kid is inaccurate, then based on the evidence you are more than likely wrong.  I fully acknowledge that is an opinion (as it will be for everyone until we see what he does on the field this year)...but that opinion is rooted hard in the facts laid out in front of us all to see BEYOND an uninformative and nearly meaningless year end stat sheet number of 58% completions.  

 

I will bet anyone here (and I pay my bets) he will easily eclipse 60% this year without question.  The evidence is OVER WHELMING that he will be in that fabled 60%.  He has too big of an arm and will take to many deep shots to ever lead the league in comp %, but who cares...he will be a nightmare to defend.  

[FireChans]

15 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Let me start by saying a lot of people discussing Allen's accuracy are...well for a lack of a better word...wrong.  Even in instances where their conclusion is probably say the most accurate one, the logic they used to get there is often incomplete and got the right answer really because you had a 50% chance to do so given there are only 2 answers to the question at hand.

1. First issue:  Season total stat checking.  
   1. This is a terribly flawed way to make a determination of a question such as "Is Josh Allen inaccurate or accurate".  Stat sheets lack context, and worse yet, everyone is obsessed with YEAR END TOTALS versus tracking progression, identifying outlier games that heavily skew end results not properly reflecting the week to week performance of said player, especially when in relation to a young player.  
2. Second issue:  Failure to factor in all the variables that impact an individual's numbers/performance.  
   1. QB is the most complicated position in all of team sports, and the individual success can be impacted in any given game or moment by a number of mitigating factors.  Fans have an utter obsession of putting all the blame or praise on a QB in every single moment without taking into context of what was really happening.  

So lets address this question:  Is Josh Allen inaccurate to the point its a problem?  The answer is likely NO based on his first 2 seasons.  But with any young player, no definitive answer can be concluded today as he is still developing and that could go either direction.  But its clear as day, he is trending in the right direction and that Josh was pretty accurate last year despite the naysayers and the year end comp %.  

 

Like all developing players he has things to work on, but he clearly demonstrated last season that his accuracy concerns really shouldn't be there and that he has what it takes to be a 64% or better QB in the NFL.  The stat sheet shows under 60%, but thats an incomplete and lazy analysis of what REALLY happened.  

 

Lets look at the mitigating factors that lead to a more accurate assessment.

1. Start with the obvious and most glaring area of improvement Josh needed to focus on:  The Deep Ball.  Without question, this was a struggle, especially the first half of the year...but WHY is the better question.
   1. Starts the season with two WR's he had no experience with and timing takes time to develop, not to mention 9 new players on the offense overall.  That was Brown and Cole, and Cole isnt a deep ball WR.  Opposite these two guys were utter scrubs who lacked any real deep ball skills or threat.  
   2. Josh started the season trying too hard to get the ball downfield, like to that scrub Zay who often made poor efforts on balls as well, and the combo of this resulted in too many turnovers the first 4 weeks of the season.  
   3. NE Game - Can not over state this enough, this game changed Josh both for the good and a little bit for the worse (but minor and he eventually readjusted).  This is the game that even he says was the turning point.  After this game, Josh would only have 3 turnovers over the rest of the season.  He got smarter with the ball, and stopped making as many risky throws.  
      1. However...the negative, was that he also too worried of the INT and was trying to put the ball too far out in front where only his guy could get it way too often.  And this led to a lot of bad over throws downfield and further hindered his deep ball.  But once, the season wore on down the stretch and he started connecting on some, you could see the confidence come back and he was improving on the deep ball and hit some amazing throws.  
   4. BOTTOM LINE:  Josh's deep ball down the stretch of the season was significantly more successful than the first 2/3's of the season.  This was due to better personnel on the field, more timing with the newer additions, and more confidence in putting the ball in the right spot.  Had Josh been that way the whole season, he easily would have been over the 60% completion on just this alone.  Now add in elite WR Diggs who is also an elite deep threat, and its VERY EASY to be optimistic that he will again continue to improve in this area.
2. Bills led the NFL in dropped passes.  Nothing to say here other than duh, this clearly impacted his comp % and had we been average or above average instead of the worst, he would also have been above 60%.  And with a much improved arsenal of weapons for Josh in year 3, I think its a good bet we wont be anywhere near the bottom of the league in dropped passes this year.
3. Touched a bit on this in point one above (sub point 3), but the first 4 weeks and especially the NE game changed Josh's approach to in game decisions.
   1. After the NE game, it forced Josh to be more careful, and this resulted in a lot more throw aways which of course impacts his comp %.  Instead of letting his competitive drive push him into more risky or low % opportunities that could lead to turnovers, Josh was smart and threw the ball away more.  But, with Josh expected improvement and development with reading the D faster and also having better weapons who can get open quicker, this should result in less throw aways.
4. Josh was 4th in the NFL in downfield throws, meaning he takes more lower % shots than almost all other QB's.  And more importantly, we did not have a great personnel group to help Josh have more success in this area.  
   1. Personally, I love this about Josh.  I would take a 62% passer who pushes the ball down field constantly over a 71% passer who is a game manager and check down artist every single time.  
   2. We did not have the right group of guys around a QB like Josh the last 2 years.  We had some pieces, both veterans like Brown and a raw rookie like Knox, but ultimately, our group was not ideal for Josh's game as a full unit.  Seeing Cole running 25 yard routes makes me cringe every time, thats not his sweet spot.  Or watching him throw a 20 yard out to Roberts, McKenzie or worse Zay made me cringe as well.  But now, Knox should be better (too many dropsies as a rookie) and the WR group on paper looks to be one of the better units in the league for someone like Josh.  
5. Last, but not least, and probably most importantly:  IMPROVEMENT.  Josh made significant strides at every stop of his career and in short bursts.  
   1. Coming into the NFL, he never had top coaching or a talented roster around him.  In HS, he was a multi-sport athlete and didn't take football as a serious as it became for him.  Then he was at a JUCO and a weak school like Wyoming where he lacked real talent and high level coaching to harness all those gifts he has.  But once he stepped off the field for Wyoming for the last time and started working with Palmer, he made huge leaps leading up to the draft and rocked the combine too.  As a rookie, he was raw, and split reps in a 3 way QB battle yet preventing him from getting better prepared to start early.  Then he got put in halfway through the first game.  After getting hurt and sitting 4 weeks, he comes back looking like a completely different player and really showing great improvement. 
   2. Year 2 he comes in and makes substantial improvement in just about every area of his game from one season to the next...DESPITE the fact he had NINE new starters around him on offense, his weapons group to throw too was mediocre overall at best and had turnover throughout the season at WR where only McKenzie was a guy he had any prior experience with after Zay was traded (Foster didnt sniff the field much). 
   3. Has a terrible game week 4 and too many turnovers over those 4 weeks just to turn around and go for 21 TDs and just 3 turnovers from weeks 5-17, second in scoring ONLY to Lamar.  

Add all this up, and IF just ONE of those factors last year were different, he was already a 60% passer.  This kid is an f-ing gamer, is highly coachable, and is constantly improving.  Now Beane has also been constantly improving the roster around him and has fully set this kid up to start really taking the next steps.  

 

So, for me...sorry, if you think this kid is inaccurate, then based on the evidence you are more than likely wrong.  I fully acknowledge that is an opinion (as it will be for everyone until we see what he does on the field this year)...but that opinion is rooted hard in the facts laid out in front of us all to see BEYOND an uninformative and nearly meaningless year end stat sheet number of 58% completions.  

 

I will bet anyone here (and I pay my bets) he will easily eclipse 60% this year without question.  The evidence is OVER WHELMING that he will be in that fabled 60%.  He has too big of an arm and will take to many deep shots to ever lead the league in comp %, but who cares...he will be a nightmare to defend.  

Why was Josh’s deep ball better with Robert Foster, a guy who was on the fringe of the roster in 2018, was on and off the practice squad, than it was with John Brown, a guy Josh went through all of camp working on his timing with?

[TwistofFate]

9 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Let me start by saying a lot of people discussing Allen's accuracy are...well for a lack of a better word...wrong.  Even in instances where their conclusion is probably say the most accurate one, the logic they used to get there is often incomplete and got the right answer really because you had a 50% chance to do so given there are only 2 answers to the question at hand.

1. First issue:  Season total stat checking.  
   1. This is a terribly flawed way to make a determination of a question such as "Is Josh Allen inaccurate or accurate".  Stat sheets lack context, and worse yet, everyone is obsessed with YEAR END TOTALS versus tracking progression, identifying outlier games that heavily skew end results not properly reflecting the week to week performance of said player, especially when in relation to a young player.  
2. Second issue:  Failure to factor in all the variables that impact an individual's numbers/performance.  
   1. QB is the most complicated position in all of team sports, and the individual success can be impacted in any given game or moment by a number of mitigating factors.  Fans have an utter obsession of putting all the blame or praise on a QB in every single moment without taking into context of what was really happening.  

So lets address this question:  Is Josh Allen inaccurate to the point its a problem?  The answer is likely NO based on his first 2 seasons.  But with any young player, no definitive answer can be concluded today as he is still developing and that could go either direction.  But its clear as day, he is trending in the right direction and that Josh was pretty accurate last year despite the naysayers and the year end comp %.  

 

Like all developing players he has things to work on, but he clearly demonstrated last season that his accuracy concerns really shouldn't be there and that he has what it takes to be a 64% or better QB in the NFL.  The stat sheet shows under 60%, but thats an incomplete and lazy analysis of what REALLY happened.  

 

Lets look at the mitigating factors that lead to a more accurate assessment.

1. Start with the obvious and most glaring area of improvement Josh needed to focus on:  The Deep Ball.  Without question, this was a struggle, especially the first half of the year...but WHY is the better question.
   1. Starts the season with two WR's he had no experience with and timing takes time to develop, not to mention 9 new players on the offense overall.  That was Brown and Cole, and Cole isnt a deep ball WR.  Opposite these two guys were utter scrubs who lacked any real deep ball skills or threat.  
   2. Josh started the season trying too hard to get the ball downfield, like to that scrub Zay who often made poor efforts on balls as well, and the combo of this resulted in too many turnovers the first 4 weeks of the season.  
   3. NE Game - Can not over state this enough, this game changed Josh both for the good and a little bit for the worse (but minor and he eventually readjusted).  This is the game that even he says was the turning point.  After this game, Josh would only have 3 turnovers over the rest of the season.  He got smarter with the ball, and stopped making as many risky throws.  
      1. However...the negative, was that he also too worried of the INT and was trying to put the ball too far out in front where only his guy could get it way too often.  And this led to a lot of bad over throws downfield and further hindered his deep ball.  But once, the season wore on down the stretch and he started connecting on some, you could see the confidence come back and he was improving on the deep ball and hit some amazing throws.  
   4. BOTTOM LINE:  Josh's deep ball down the stretch of the season was significantly more successful than the first 2/3's of the season.  This was due to better personnel on the field, more timing with the newer additions, and more confidence in putting the ball in the right spot.  Had Josh been that way the whole season, he easily would have been over the 60% completion on just this alone.  Now add in elite WR Diggs who is also an elite deep threat, and its VERY EASY to be optimistic that he will again continue to improve in this area.
2. Bills led the NFL in dropped passes.  Nothing to say here other than duh, this clearly impacted his comp % and had we been average or above average instead of the worst, he would also have been above 60%.  And with a much improved arsenal of weapons for Josh in year 3, I think its a good bet we wont be anywhere near the bottom of the league in dropped passes this year.
3. Touched a bit on this in point one above (sub point 3), but the first 4 weeks and especially the NE game changed Josh's approach to in game decisions.
   1. After the NE game, it forced Josh to be more careful, and this resulted in a lot more throw aways which of course impacts his comp %.  Instead of letting his competitive drive push him into more risky or low % opportunities that could lead to turnovers, Josh was smart and threw the ball away more.  But, with Josh expected improvement and development with reading the D faster and also having better weapons who can get open quicker, this should result in less throw aways.
4. Josh was 4th in the NFL in downfield throws, meaning he takes more lower % shots than almost all other QB's.  And more importantly, we did not have a great personnel group to help Josh have more success in this area.  
   1. Personally, I love this about Josh.  I would take a 62% passer who pushes the ball down field constantly over a 71% passer who is a game manager and check down artist every single time.  
   2. We did not have the right group of guys around a QB like Josh the last 2 years.  We had some pieces, both veterans like Brown and a raw rookie like Knox, but ultimately, our group was not ideal for Josh's game as a full unit.  Seeing Cole running 25 yard routes makes me cringe every time, thats not his sweet spot.  Or watching him throw a 20 yard out to Roberts, McKenzie or worse Zay made me cringe as well.  But now, Knox should be better (too many dropsies as a rookie) and the WR group on paper looks to be one of the better units in the league for someone like Josh.  
5. Last, but not least, and probably most importantly:  IMPROVEMENT.  Josh made significant strides at every stop of his career and in short bursts.  
   1. Coming into the NFL, he never had top coaching or a talented roster around him.  In HS, he was a multi-sport athlete and didn't take football as a serious as it became for him.  Then he was at a JUCO and a weak school like Wyoming where he lacked real talent and high level coaching to harness all those gifts he has.  But once he stepped off the field for Wyoming for the last time and started working with Palmer, he made huge leaps leading up to the draft and rocked the combine too.  As a rookie, he was raw, and split reps in a 3 way QB battle yet preventing him from getting better prepared to start early.  Then he got put in halfway through the first game.  After getting hurt and sitting 4 weeks, he comes back looking like a completely different player and really showing great improvement. 
   2. Year 2 he comes in and makes substantial improvement in just about every area of his game from one season to the next...DESPITE the fact he had NINE new starters around him on offense, his weapons group to throw too was mediocre overall at best and had turnover throughout the season at WR where only McKenzie was a guy he had any prior experience with after Zay was traded (Foster didnt sniff the field much). 
   3. Has a terrible game week 4 and too many turnovers over those 4 weeks just to turn around and go for 21 TDs and just 3 turnovers from weeks 5-17, second in scoring ONLY to Lamar.  

Add all this up, and IF just ONE of those factors last year were different, he was already a 60% passer.  This kid is an f-ing gamer, is highly coachable, and is constantly improving.  Now Beane has also been constantly improving the roster around him and has fully set this kid up to start really taking the next steps.  

 

So, for me...sorry, if you think this kid is inaccurate, then based on the evidence you are more than likely wrong.  I fully acknowledge that is an opinion (as it will be for everyone until we see what he does on the field this year)...but that opinion is rooted hard in the facts laid out in front of us all to see BEYOND an uninformative and nearly meaningless year end stat sheet number of 58% completions.  

 

I will bet anyone here (and I pay my bets) he will easily eclipse 60% this year without question.  The evidence is OVER WHELMING that he will be in that fabled 60%.  He has too big of an arm and will take to many deep shots to ever lead the league in comp %, but who cares...he will be a nightmare to defend.  

Easiest bet ill ever win.  Ill call you on that right now. 

 

Allen has never eclipsed 60% in his entire career when attempting more than 20 passes.   That includes college. 

 

You can write a book why everyone else is wrong, but you are completely off base for two simple reasons. 

 

1. He's never done it

 

2.  Every meaningful advanced metric says the likelihood he does do it is slim to none. 

 

The amout of deep throws he attempts is irrelevant.   The mean % of every deep throw made over the last decade is 30%.  Allens % is abysmal. 

 

 

[BillsFanThru-N-Thru]

30 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Let me start by saying a lot of people discussing Allen's accuracy are...well for a lack of a better word...wrong.  Even in instances where their conclusion is probably say the most accurate one, the logic they used to get there is often incomplete and got the right answer really because you had a 50% chance to do so given there are only 2 answers to the question at hand.

1. First issue:  Season total stat checking.  
   1. This is a terribly flawed way to make a determination of a question such as "Is Josh Allen inaccurate or accurate".  Stat sheets lack context, and worse yet, everyone is obsessed with YEAR END TOTALS versus tracking progression, identifying outlier games that heavily skew end results not properly reflecting the week to week performance of said player, especially when in relation to a young player.  
2. Second issue:  Failure to factor in all the variables that impact an individual's numbers/performance.  
   1. QB is the most complicated position in all of team sports, and the individual success can be impacted in any given game or moment by a number of mitigating factors.  Fans have an utter obsession of putting all the blame or praise on a QB in every single moment without taking into context of what was really happening.  

So lets address this question:  Is Josh Allen inaccurate to the point its a problem?  The answer is likely NO based on his first 2 seasons.  But with any young player, no definitive answer can be concluded today as he is still developing and that could go either direction.  But its clear as day, he is trending in the right direction and that Josh was pretty accurate last year despite the naysayers and the year end comp %.  

 

Like all developing players he has things to work on, but he clearly demonstrated last season that his accuracy concerns really shouldn't be there and that he has what it takes to be a 64% or better QB in the NFL.  The stat sheet shows under 60%, but thats an incomplete and lazy analysis of what REALLY happened.  

 

Lets look at the mitigating factors that lead to a more accurate assessment.

1. Start with the obvious and most glaring area of improvement Josh needed to focus on:  The Deep Ball.  Without question, this was a struggle, especially the first half of the year...but WHY is the better question.
   1. Starts the season with two WR's he had no experience with and timing takes time to develop, not to mention 9 new players on the offense overall.  That was Brown and Cole, and Cole isnt a deep ball WR.  Opposite these two guys were utter scrubs who lacked any real deep ball skills or threat.  
   2. Josh started the season trying too hard to get the ball downfield, like to that scrub Zay who often made poor efforts on balls as well, and the combo of this resulted in too many turnovers the first 4 weeks of the season.  
   3. NE Game - Can not over state this enough, this game changed Josh both for the good and a little bit for the worse (but minor and he eventually readjusted).  This is the game that even he says was the turning point.  After this game, Josh would only have 3 turnovers over the rest of the season.  He got smarter with the ball, and stopped making as many risky throws.  
      1. However...the negative, was that he also too worried of the INT and was trying to put the ball too far out in front where only his guy could get it way too often.  And this led to a lot of bad over throws downfield and further hindered his deep ball.  But once, the season wore on down the stretch and he started connecting on some, you could see the confidence come back and he was improving on the deep ball and hit some amazing throws.  
   4. BOTTOM LINE:  Josh's deep ball down the stretch of the season was significantly more successful than the first 2/3's of the season.  This was due to better personnel on the field, more timing with the newer additions, and more confidence in putting the ball in the right spot.  Had Josh been that way the whole season, he easily would have been over the 60% completion on just this alone.  Now add in elite WR Diggs who is also an elite deep threat, and its VERY EASY to be optimistic that he will again continue to improve in this area.
2. Bills led the NFL in dropped passes.  Nothing to say here other than duh, this clearly impacted his comp % and had we been average or above average instead of the worst, he would also have been above 60%.  And with a much improved arsenal of weapons for Josh in year 3, I think its a good bet we wont be anywhere near the bottom of the league in dropped passes this year.
3. Touched a bit on this in point one above (sub point 3), but the first 4 weeks and especially the NE game changed Josh's approach to in game decisions.
   1. After the NE game, it forced Josh to be more careful, and this resulted in a lot more throw aways which of course impacts his comp %.  Instead of letting his competitive drive push him into more risky or low % opportunities that could lead to turnovers, Josh was smart and threw the ball away more.  But, with Josh expected improvement and development with reading the D faster and also having better weapons who can get open quicker, this should result in less throw aways.
4. Josh was 4th in the NFL in downfield throws, meaning he takes more lower % shots than almost all other QB's.  And more importantly, we did not have a great personnel group to help Josh have more success in this area.  
   1. Personally, I love this about Josh.  I would take a 62% passer who pushes the ball down field constantly over a 71% passer who is a game manager and check down artist every single time.  
   2. We did not have the right group of guys around a QB like Josh the last 2 years.  We had some pieces, both veterans like Brown and a raw rookie like Knox, but ultimately, our group was not ideal for Josh's game as a full unit.  Seeing Cole running 25 yard routes makes me cringe every time, thats not his sweet spot.  Or watching him throw a 20 yard out to Roberts, McKenzie or worse Zay made me cringe as well.  But now, Knox should be better (too many dropsies as a rookie) and the WR group on paper looks to be one of the better units in the league for someone like Josh.  
5. Last, but not least, and probably most importantly:  IMPROVEMENT.  Josh made significant strides at every stop of his career and in short bursts.  
   1. Coming into the NFL, he never had top coaching or a talented roster around him.  In HS, he was a multi-sport athlete and didn't take football as a serious as it became for him.  Then he was at a JUCO and a weak school like Wyoming where he lacked real talent and high level coaching to harness all those gifts he has.  But once he stepped off the field for Wyoming for the last time and started working with Palmer, he made huge leaps leading up to the draft and rocked the combine too.  As a rookie, he was raw, and split reps in a 3 way QB battle yet preventing him from getting better prepared to start early.  Then he got put in halfway through the first game.  After getting hurt and sitting 4 weeks, he comes back looking like a completely different player and really showing great improvement. 
   2. Year 2 he comes in and makes substantial improvement in just about every area of his game from one season to the next...DESPITE the fact he had NINE new starters around him on offense, his weapons group to throw too was mediocre overall at best and had turnover throughout the season at WR where only McKenzie was a guy he had any prior experience with after Zay was traded (Foster didnt sniff the field much). 
   3. Has a terrible game week 4 and too many turnovers over those 4 weeks just to turn around and go for 21 TDs and just 3 turnovers from weeks 5-17, second in scoring ONLY to Lamar.  

Add all this up, and IF just ONE of those factors last year were different, he was already a 60% passer.  This kid is an f-ing gamer, is highly coachable, and is constantly improving.  Now Beane has also been constantly improving the roster around him and has fully set this kid up to start really taking the next steps.  

 

So, for me...sorry, if you think this kid is inaccurate, then based on the evidence you are more than likely wrong.  I fully acknowledge that is an opinion (as it will be for everyone until we see what he does on the field this year)...but that opinion is rooted hard in the facts laid out in front of us all to see BEYOND an uninformative and nearly meaningless year end stat sheet number of 58% completions.  

 

I will bet anyone here (and I pay my bets) he will easily eclipse 60% this year without question.  The evidence is OVER WHELMING that he will be in that fabled 60%.  He has too big of an arm and will take to many deep shots to ever lead the league in comp %, but who cares...he will be a nightmare to defend.  

One other thing that I haven't seen taken into account is the Oline play and the protection he gets.  If he's throwing it away to avoid a sack, or even rushing a throw because of pressure that shows up on his stats and not the Olines.  In his first year the Oline was absolutely horrid which is why he either rushed his throws or took off running.  Last year was vastly better then his first year but not without problems

[thebandit27]

18 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

Easiest bet ill ever win.  Ill call you on that right now. 

 

Allen has never eclipsed 60% in his entire career when attempting more than 20 passes.   That includes college. 

 

You can write a book why everyone else is wrong, but you are completely off base for two simple reasons. 

 

1. He's never done it

 

2.  Every meaningful advanced metric says the likelihood he does do it is slim to none. 

 

The amout of deep throws he attempts is irrelevant.   The mean % of every deep throw made over the last decade is 30%.  Allens % is abysmal. 

 

 

Two things here:

 

1) he’s never eclipsed 57%...until he did it last year in the NFL

2) don’t be so sure you’d win. As I said earlier: all that had to happen was for his pass catchers to be average in drop percentage and he’d have been at 60.5% in 2019. Instead they were dead last.

[FireChans]

Just now, thebandit27 said:

Two things here:

 

1) he’s never eclipsed 57%...until he did it last year in the NFL

2) don’t be so sure you’d win. As I said earlier: all that had to happen was for his pass catchers to be average in drop percentage and he’d have been at 60.5% in 2019. Instead they were dead last.

So average pass catchers and Josh can be 30th instead of 32nd.

 

 

[thebandit27]

13 minutes ago, FireChans said:

So average pass catchers and Josh can be 30th instead of 32nd.

 

 

Last year? Yes.

 

And hence Twist would lose that bet.