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tomur67

Josh's passing stats for 2019 aren't as bad as many people think.

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Yes they do. If anything, the official drop statistics give too much leeway to the receiver. There have been several times where I have looked at a game's official drop statistics and been able to distinctly remember more drops than officially recorded. A drop is seemingly only officially recorded if the receiver isn't so much as breathed on by a defender and the ball hits him directly in the hands.

That is so wrong I don't know where to begin.   If the ball hits you in the hands and you don't catch it it's a drop. We're not talking about passes defended we're talking about drops.  

 

Drop statistic do not take into account how bad the pass was only if it hit the receiver in the hands and they dropped it.

 

What is Drops?

This statistic counts the number of times an intended receiver touches the ball but fails to catch it.  If the ball is thrown but the receiver never gets his hands on it, it is not recorded as a drop.  It is recorded by some teams and publications, but not officially by the NFL.

hu8d

Sporting Charts explains Dropped Pass - Drops

Dropping passes is an accepted part of the game, but professional receivers are expected to catch every ball thrown their way that is not batted down by a defender or outside their reach.  As such, dropped passes are recorded to keep track of which receivers are actually catching the ball when they are supposed to.  Typically and on average, a professional receiver will drop about 8-9 passes over the course of a season.  The widely recognized leader of passes dropped for a season is Terrell Owens, but finding exact numbers is difficult.

Edited by TwistofFate

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16 minutes ago, BillsFanThru-N-Thru said:

Beg to differ ...

This standard says drops are "incomplete passes where the receiver SHOULD have caught the pass with ORDINARY effort."

Basically, we're talking about blatant drops, not the ones where your old man leans over and says anything that grazed the receiver anywhere was a drop in his day.

"Only use this if the receiver is 100 percent at fault and no one else can be blamed for the incompletion," ESPN tells its game charters. "Pass interference that wasn't called/passes thrown just outside the receiver's reach, etc., are NOT drops."

Beg to differ all you would like it's right there in black and white.  If it's outside the receivers reach that means the receiver never touched it which means it's not a drop it's an incompletion.

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4 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

Beg to differ all you would like it's right there in black and white.  If it's outside the receivers reach that means the receiver never touched it which means it's not a drop it's an incompletion.

OR  you could have highlighted ...

 

This standard says drops are "incomplete passes where the receiver SHOULD have caught the pass with ORDINARY effort."

 

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2 minutes ago, BillsFanThru-N-Thru said:

OR  you could have highlighted ...

 

This standard says drops are "incomplete passes where the receiver SHOULD have caught the pass with ORDINARY effort."

 

Whats ordinary effort?  Your ordinary effort could be different than mine. 

 

Is jumping ordinary effort?

 

Is stopping to change direction and catch a pass thrown behind you ordinary effort? 

 

Is tracking the ball thrown over the wrong shoulder considered ordinary effort? 

 

Is lunging ordinary effort? 

 

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1 minute ago, TwistofFate said:

Whats ordinary effort?  Your ordinary effort could be different than mine. 

 

Is jumping ordinary effort?

 

Is stopping to change direction and catch a pass thrown behind you ordinary effort? 

 

Is tracking the ball thrown over the wrong shoulder considered ordinary effort? 

 

Is lunging ordinary effort? 

 

My definition of ordinary effort is irrelevant just as yours is.  The statistics are not based by me but by a statistician who is logging that information.   

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Josh attempts more tough throws than most QBs. What's better? Completing 3 checkdowns for 9 yards and punting? Or hitting one of three attempts for 15 yards for a first down?

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6 minutes ago, BillsFanThru-N-Thru said:

My definition of ordinary effort is irrelevant just as yours is.  The statistics are not based by me but by a statistician who is logging that information.   

Great so I'm going to use ESPN stats where you have no idea how to define the word ordinary. Wonderful.

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3 minutes ago, BillsFanThru-N-Thru said:

My definition of ordinary effort is irrelevant just as yours is.  The statistics are not based by me but by a statistician who is logging that information.   

 

Good luck with that brother - @TwistofFate is the know-all be-all when it comes to QB play.  When Josh passes meets or surpasses his next metric, he'll just move the goalposts to continue with his charade.  

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Allen just has to be willing to take more check downs.

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14 hours ago, tomur67 said:

       In 16 games Josh  completed 271 passes in 461 attempts for a 58.8%.  If he had 2 more completions per game, that would give him 303 completions for a 64.3% average, which is in the range of most NFL quarterbacks.  Yes, there are some QB's with higher completion averages.  For example,  Drew Brees  led the NFL with a 74.3 completion average, but his completion yardage was 2,979 yards, less than Josh's 3089 yards. It looks like Brees and a few other QB's are throwing a few more screen passes or dump off passes than Josh threw.  Plus you have to figure in drops.  All in all, I'm not worried at all about Josh"s accuracy issue,  In my humble opinion, it's not an issue.

 

I was reading a post that had a video of the drops that were made on some of Allen's passes not sure if they were over his 2 seasons but the immediate thought was if those passes were caught what would his percentage be ?

 

I think Allen will progress this year and given the upgrade at the WR position we should all see some change in his stats for the better this season !!

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6 minutes ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

 

Good luck with that brother - @TwistofFate is the know-all be-all when it comes to QB play.  When Josh passes meets or surpasses his next metric, he'll just move the goalposts to continue with his charade.  

I wont.  Proving me wrong means we have a franchise Qb, and that's something we can all get behind. 

 

Welcome to the show, what took so long? 

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Josh has to be better.   

 

No one knows if he will get better.   

 

One's definition of drops may be fun to talk about, but who cares?   Josh has to be better.  

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Posted (edited)

So basically, if we don’t manipulate the stats he’s a bottom tier passer. 
 

Luckily he’s a really good runner because I’d hate to see him having to rely solely on throwing the ball.

Edited by Bangarang
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9 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

So basically, if we don’t manipulate the stats he’s a bottom tier passer. 
 

Luckily he’s a really good runner because I’d hate to see him having to rely solely on throwing the ball.

 

Sadly, even if you manipulate the numbers he's still in the bottom 3rd of passing.

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/stats/player/_/season/2019/seasontype/2/table/passing/sort/completionPct/dir/desc

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46 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

Whats ordinary effort?  Your ordinary effort could be different than mine. 

 

Is jumping ordinary effort?

 

Is stopping to change direction and catch a pass thrown behind you ordinary effort? 

 

Is tracking the ball thrown over the wrong shoulder considered ordinary effort? 

 

Is lunging ordinary effort? 

 

Ordinarily all the things you have listed are likely to happen multiple times per game. The deal is a lot of receivers don’t have the well rounded skill set to be able to do all those things well. Blame it on variations in human physiology and cognitive capacity. We have all seen drops that are not recorded as such, Zay Jones for instance... 😁👍

 

Go Bills!!!

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1 hour ago, TwistofFate said:

That is so wrong I don't know where to begin.   If the ball hits you in the hands and you don't catch it it's a drop.

 

Then why did you say that statistic doesn't account for bad passes? I assure you it does, to a fault. If the ball is thrown a little high and the receiver has to jump for it, they would not consider that a drop even if it bounces off his hands.

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10 hours ago, TwistofFate said:

The video im going to post right now gets me in trouble, but this is the truth. 

 

People who are questionable of Allen see the things you don't think exist. 

 

 

 

This video shows all the weakness of Allen that people make excuses for. 

 

Take notice to several things throughout this video. 

 

1.  Clean pockets and amount of time Allen has to pass. 

 

2.  Ball placement of each throw.   Was it optimal placement to give the receiver YAC?  How far off the mark is each throw? 

 

3.  Count how many balls counted as DROPS, that were nearly impossible catches that receivers layed out for or jumped through the air or tried to become contortionists to catch. 

 

Allen's single greatest problem is his accuracy.  Thus far in his career he is stilled plagued by his biggest knock....consistency of his throws. 

 

I'm really at a loss that people can't objectively see his major weakness.

 

Can he light it up this year?  Yes.  Did they give him the tools to succeed?   Yes.  Is his accuracy still his biggest concern???   YES

 

Will he step up this season and take this franchise by the reins?????  "?"

 

Imo, history is not on his side. 

I am with you on this. People confuse seeing his weaknesses with hating him or this team. Do you you think his coaches dont see his weaknesses? I can 100% guarantee you that his coaches and if you take any of the 32 teams coaches they would see the same thing. His #1 problem is accuracy/consistency and #2 is decision making. He has compensated for that with his athleticism but that is not a long term recipe for success as a QB. Those that really want to dig into to this - go watch every pass for the top 10 QB's in the league. Then watch the same for Josh Allen. If you still see him being just as accurate and only impacted by drops or taking more chances, etc then you are just not being real. We all know he can make all the throws but its consistency making them. He still has handfuls of balls a game that are just not at the level he needs to be at. This is not high school or college. 

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10 hours ago, MJS said:

No, it's not adding attempts, it is completing two more of his already attempted passes per game (and Allen attempts less passes than most QB's as it is, having a smaller sample size and a smaller margin for error).

 

And really this highlights that there really isn't a big difference between 58.8% and the magical, arbitrary 60%. They are virtually the same.

 

Allen was over 60% as a passer for much of the season. He then faced some of the NFL's best defenses late in the year which dipped him below that number.

Unfortunately, 60% puts him squarely at 30th in the NFL last season

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, TwistofFate said:

No, you aren't taking into consideration the On Target throws that he's one of the worst in the league for.

 

I posted a video in this link of the terrible throws he's made this season and how many drops are in that video are from horrific throws that receivers were diving all over the field in an attempt to catch?

 

Drop statistics do not calculate how bad of a pass it was the receiver was attempting to catch.

 

You are trying to make it cut and dry black and white as if it's simply the receiver just dropping perfect balls which clearly is not the case.


He’s not “one of the worst” in on-target throws; he’s 21st. That’s not even bottom 1/3.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/passing_advanced.htm

 

And for the record, his drop percentage was the worst in the league by a full percentage point.

Edited by thebandit27
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Allen threw for 193 ypg (take out the last game and he cracks 200 ypg), 30th in the league.

 

His completion percentage was 32nd. 

 

He was tied for 21st in TD passes. 

 

He was 24th in Rating. 

 

His offense scored 19.6 ppg. 

 

He is not an average NFL passer yet. 

 

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