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Josh's passing stats for 2019 aren't as bad as many people think.

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4 hours ago, gaskill15 said:

Titans fan here,

 

Can I just say that this board is nearly a mirror image of excuse making between Allen and Mariota. I’m talking in terms of inconsistency, drops, and holding onto the ball too long. At some point they simply don’t have it (not saying this is the consensus on Allen, he’s still plenty young). I think Year 3 is the biggest indicator for knowing whether they have “it”. 

 

IMO, the single biggest factor in a quality NFL QB is the ability to process the field. If they can make all the throws that’s great, but without the ability to process the field and progress through the reads it doesn’t really matter what throws they can make. 

 

To be fair, I think Allen has a much better chance of success than Mariota did. 

 

Signed,

Butthurt Titans fan who was all-in on Pineapple Tebow his couple of years. 


One of the best posts I’ve read on here in years comes from a friggin Titans fan (it was a forward pass btw).

 

Allen pisses off all you internet calculator jockeys because he breaks all the analytic rules that look at stats as the end-all-be-all of QB evaluation. Allen has IT. Everyone here knows it. He will never be a good QB in the eyes of stats guys. He will have above average stats at best, but he wins.

 

This year will likely determine his future although no matter what happens he will be back for year 4. He was the rawest QB by far and everyone has seen his jumps in improvement during each year and also from year to year. He needs to continue to improve this year because he has a ways to go before he hits his ceiling. He’s never going to be Mahomes but I believe he can get good enough to get us to a Super Bowl. 
 

I can’t wait to see if this kid reaches his potential. For once we have an organization that is giving our QB every chance to succeed. It’s all on him now, there are no excuses. I’m praying he’s got it because he is a Buffalo guy through and through. You can’t teach the intangibles, how to want it, how to be a leader, how to be humble yet confident, how to get guys to want to follow you. Just look at that 4th down play against Dallas, that’s Josh, and us, in a nutshell. Now let’s just hope he hits a couple deep balls and continues to improve on last year because the sky is the limit but not guaranteed. 

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Success said:

Maybe I'm a homer.  I go to some rival boards, and they completely dismiss Allen.  They say we'll never be good while he's QB.

 

I feel like I live in a different reality.   6-1 to close out 2018, leading us to the playoffs last year. Playing his best in the primetime games (Dallas, Pitt).  He even led us to a winning FG position in that playoff game, before that phantom call on Ford.

 

Guy's a winner, period. I could care less about stats. And the latter will improve immensely with a corps of Diggs, Brown & Beasley.

 

I love, love, love that Pats fans are hyping Stidham and still think they could have the best QB in the division. I remember that kind of wishful thinking from all the way back into the Todd Collins days.  Allen is going to keep the Bills on top for a long time - the wait is over.

 


Not to split hairs but Allen was far from his best at Pitt. I’d even say he played pretty .poorly

Edited by Bangarang

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4 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Lets make the bet.  But there needs to be consequences if you don't pay.  Ive made several bets here, and I have won them all but one...only one person paid me and I paid my only loss.  

 

Your logic above is so silly and flawed that I am not even going to address it as it was already addressed in my original post.  I love making bets with people who either don't read or are so invested in their flawed logic that they can't comprehend what they are reading.  I love your silly take of "he didnt do it in Wyoming and JUCO" where he had weaker coaching and a terrible cast around him as a raw QB.  Not to mention every meaningful metric already said he did it last year, except his weak cast DROPPED enough passes to drop him under 60%.  So you are already categorically wrong on that one fact alone as had we been in the top 10 instead of dead last in dropped passes, he would have been a 60% passer already.    

 

Over/Under is 60%...lets do $100 and if the loser doesn't pay...their account and IP gets frozen by mods for entire 2021 offseason and not reactivated until week 1 of the 2022 season.  Those are my terms.  

Like I already said, easiest bet there could be. 

 

Ill take that bet for 100$ all day. 

 

History is on my side, analytics are on my side, Strength of Schedule is on my side. 

 

 

4 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

I'll take as much as you want straight up

Ill go 100$ same as with Alpha. 

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

Like I already said, easiest bet there could be. 

 

Ill take that bet for 100$ all day. 

 

History is on my side, analytics are on my side, Strength of Schedule is on my side. 

 

 

 

Too easy.  Who ever loses leaves the message board.  Although rumor has it, you are like on your third of fourth account.

Edited by Lieutenant Aldo Raine

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

 

Too easy.  Who ever loses leaves the message board.  Although rumor has it your like on your third of fourth account.

Well rumors would be wrong.... 

2 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

 

And im down for that bet with you... 

 

Self ban

 

You are so confident Allen is going to be the next best thing. 

 

 

Edited by TwistofFate

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Posted (edited)
26 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

Like I already said, easiest bet there could be. 

 

Ill take that bet for 100$ all day. 

 

History is on my side, analytics are on my side, Strength of Schedule is on my side. 

 

 

Ill go 100$ same as with Alpha. 

You keep saying analytics are on your side, yet you havent actually explained how they're on your side. I'm not familiar with any advanced analytics that have said players can't improve.

 

And as for the strength of schedule part, it remains to be seen how good the pass defenses we'll be playing are. Our schedule from this past season was one of the easiest in terms of record, but we did play 7 games against teams who finished with a top 12 pass defense.

Edited by gobills404

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28 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

Like I already said, easiest bet there could be. 

 

Ill take that bet for 100$ all day. 

 

History is on my side, analytics are on my side, Strength of Schedule is on my side. 

 

 

Ill go 100$ same as with Alpha. 

I want more

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Just now, TwistofFate said:

100$ take it or leave it. 

$1000 and youre on, you sounded pretty sure of yourself 

 

And dont sad face me, I posted my receipts and I pay up on bets- ask @Zerovoltz

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Just now, GoBills808 said:

$1000 and youre on, you sounded pretty sure of yourself 

 

Im more than sure.  Im not a degenerate gambler.  100$ end of story. 

 

Those are the terms, don't like em?   Maybe you aren't so sure. 

 

 

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45 minutes ago, Bangarang said:


Not to split hairs but Allen was far from his best at Pitt. I’d even say he played pretty .poorly

Not to excuse Allen but that offensive game plan was frustrating.... get a lead and run the ball... the McDermott special.

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5 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

Im more than sure.  Im not a degenerate gambler.  100$ end of story. 

 

Those are the terms, don't like em?   Maybe you aren't so sure. 

 

 

lol i just proposed raising the stakes and you balked

 

wasting my time 

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1 minute ago, ScottLaw said:

Not to excuse Allen but that offensive game plan was frustrating.... get a lead and run the ball... the McDermott special.

No excuse for that kind of game plan anymore. Josh in his third year, o-line has a year to gain familiarity, Diggs trade, Knox second year, Moss to replace old man Gore. Training wheels off. Get and build leads.

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Posted (edited)
14 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

This kind of logic, "If he had 2 more completions per game, that would give him 303 completions ..." always cracks me up.

 

Essentially what it says is that if you changed his stats, they'd be different. Yeah, fair enough, but with zero logical force. Sure if you changed things they'd be different. But they aren't different. They're what they are. If you changed every other QB's stats, they'd be different too.

 

And yes, Brees had even fewer yards than Allen this year. Think that might be because he missed more than five games with an injury? In any case, Brees' yards per attempt, a much better gauge of how long the passes you're throwing are than total yardage, are significantly higher than Allen's, 7.9 YPA (10th in the league) vs. Allen's 6.7 YPA (27th). 

 

And yes, drops have an effect. But you also have to factor in what caused the drops. Some of Allen's were caused by throwing short passes much too hard without touch. Plenty were on the receiver, but when you have the problem Allen does with not yet having incorporated enough touch into his game, the drops will go up. There are all kinds of different figures for drops, because which incompletions are drops is pretty subjective. 

 

But let's pretend that the QB has no effect on this stat and just look at the numbers. The Bills had 26 drops last year according to most sites. The NFL average was 18. That's a difference of eight passes, half a drop per game over the average. Allen went 271 for 461 last year. Change that to give him the same number of attempts and eight more completions and his completion percentage would go up just over 1.5%. That would put him 31st in the league in completion percentage, without adjusting any other QB's stats. That's not a significant improvement when compared to other QB completion percentages.

 

Not that completion percentage is an especially great indicator of accuracy. But it's the one you used, so I pointed out the flaws in the numbers that you used.

 

He isn't especially accurate. He throws dimes one moment and misses badly the next. He's inconsistent. He can improve, and he seemed to improve some last year. But it's likely to be a problem down the line to some extent. Perhaps he can improve other facets of his game to make up for this problem. That seems reasonably possible to me.

 

 

 

 

 

This is what I’m banking on if he is going to be highly successful in this league.

 

Guy is never going to be tops in the league in completion percentage. Not his game. Foot work is sloppy which leads to off throws, but he’s shown his ability to make up for the misses with wow type throws and big plays with his legs..... if he can improve on the misses just a bit and add more big plays(like a much improved deep ball) he’ll be fine.

2 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

No excuse for that kind of game plan anymore. Josh in his third year, o-line has a year to gain familiarity, Diggs trade, Knox second year, Moss to replace old man Gore. Training wheels off. Get and build leads.

There was no excuse for it last season. If you trust your defense what are you afraid of?

Edited by ScottLaw

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2 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

No excuse for that kind of game plan anymore. Josh in his third year, o-line has a year to gain familiarity, Diggs trade, Knox second year, Moss to replace old man Gore. Training wheels off. Get and build leads.

We-el anymore yes I agree, but in that particular game...huge implications. Playoffs, big road win, there were a lot of reasons to grind out a W in Pitt last season.

 

Going forward I agree tho

1 minute ago, ScottLaw said:

This is what I’m banking on if he is going to be highly successful in this league.

 

Guy is never going to be tops in the league in completion percentage. Not his game. Foot work is sloppy which leads to off throws, but he’s shown his abi,it’s to make up for the misses for wow type throws and plays with his legs..... if he can improve on the misses just a bit and add more big plays(like a much improved deep ball) he’ll be fine.

I understand the footwork issue but it's overblown imo. Look at Mahomes. And don't give me the 'don't compare the two' line. He has an awful base half the time and his feet are a mess but the kid has such talent in his upper body he makes it work. Similar w/Allen in that respect. He has a special arm and if he looks a little weird delivering the ball I'll live w/it because he has the kind of natural ability to throw that can make up for shoddy footwork.

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1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

We-el anymore yes I agree, but in that particular game...huge implications. Playoffs, big road win, there were a lot of reasons to grind out a W in Pitt last season.

 

Going forward I agree tho

I concur given the specific circumstances, but it was generally a trend overall.

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4 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

This is what I’m banking on if he is going to be highly successful in this league.

 

Guy is never going to be tops in the league in completion percentage. Not his game. Foot work is sloppy which leads to off throws, but he’s shown his ability to make up for the misses with wow type throws and big plays with his legs..... if he can improve on the misses just a bit and add more big plays(like a much improved deep ball) he’ll be fine.

There was no excuse for it last season. If you trust your defense what are you afraid of?

This was the problem, they put so much trust in their defense, they went ultra conservative in their playcalling with weak leads. Too many times McDermott took his foot off the gas too soon

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11 hours ago, MJS said:

Which is a number we can win 10-11 games with and get into the playoffs with.

 

I doubt that. we had one of the easiest schedules in almost a decade last season. next year will be a completely different animal. 

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46 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

We-el anymore yes I agree, but in that particular game...huge implications. Playoffs, big road win, there were a lot of reasons to grind out a W in Pitt last season.

 

Going forward I agree tho

I understand the footwork issue but it's overblown imo. Look at Mahomes. And don't give me the 'don't compare the two' line. He has an awful base half the time and his feet are a mess but the kid has such talent in his upper body he makes it work. Similar w/Allen in that respect. He has a special arm and if he looks a little weird delivering the ball I'll live w/it because he has the kind of natural ability to throw that can make up for shoddy footwork.

Yea I guess your right to an extent.... he did short hop a lot of throws due to not stepping through with his throws... I just don’t ever see him being a big completion percentage guy, ever. 

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5 minutes ago, Penfield45 said:

 

I doubt that. we had one of the easiest schedules in almost a decade last season. next year will be a completely different animal. 

In a decade, huh? Haha, according to what?

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