Josh's passing stats for 2019 aren't as bad as many people think.

[thebandit27]

7 hours ago, BigBillsFan said:

 

Yeah because being the lowest rated starting QB for the season in yards per game and completion % 2 years in a row needs context.

 

Did you know if Jamarcus Russell just added 1 touchdown a game he would still be starting in the NFL?

Talk about a horrendously ridiculous non-sequitur—well done even for this board!

 

The kid scored more TDs than all but 5 other NFL players. He went 10-4 in games he started and finished. He’s 18th in TDs per pass and 21st in on-target throw percentage, and yet there are people that proclaim him as somehow brutally inaccurate (not true).

 

His WRs were literally the worst group of pass catchers (in terms of drop percentage) in the league, and the worst of any group over the past 10 years. Somehow pointing out that an average performance would’ve crested his completion percentage above 60 makes him Jamarcus Russell? ? 
 

News flash: it’s okay to look at his performance honestly. You don’t have to stake a position and then back your way into defending it.

 

And yes, statistics need context if you want to understand what they’re telling you. If box scores are all that matters then 10-6 with 29 TDs should make you extremely happy...

 

For an example of context...

 

Who threw for more TDs per pass attempt: Allen or Tom Brady?

Who threw more INTs: Allen or Tom Brady?
 

Who threw for a higher on-target percentage: Allen or Tom Brady?

 

Who had a higher yards per pass attempt: Allen or Tom Brady?

Edited May 20, 2020 by thebandit27

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:

Talk about a horrendously ridiculous non-sequitur—well done even for this board!

 

The kid scored more TDs than all but 5 other NFL players. He went 10-4 in games he started and finished. He’s 18th in TDs per pass and 21st in on-target throw percentage, and yet there are people that proclaim him as somehow brutally inaccurate (not true).

 

His WRs were literally the worst group of pass catchers (in terms of drop percentage) in the league, and the worst of any group over the past 10 years. Somehow pointing out that an average performance would’ve crested his completion percentage above 60 makes him Jamarcus Russell? ? 
 

News flash: it’s okay to look at his performance honestly. You don’t have to stake a position and then back your way into defending it.

 

And yes, statistics need context if you want to understand what they’re telling you. If box scores are all that matters then 10-6 with 29 TDs should make you extremely happy...

 

For an example of context...

 

Who threw for more TDs per pass attempt: Allen or Tom Brady?

Who threw more INTs: Allen or Tom Brady?
 

Who threw for a higher on-target percentage: Allen or Tom Brady?

 

Who had a higher yards per pass attempt: Allen or Tom Brady?

 

 

You say, "he went 10-4 in games he started and finished," and that simply isn't true. The Buffalo Bills are the ones who did that. I believe that if you go back and take a look, you'll see there were 10 other players on the field with Josh pretty much every single play. Wins and losses simply isn't a QB stat. It's a team stat. 

 

And as for those two wins where he didn't finish the game, in one he was 13 for 28 for 153 yards and 0TDs and 3 INTs. He was not without responsibility for that Pats game loss, concussion or not. His passer rating that game was 24.0, and no, that's not a misprint. No, it wasn't all on him, far from it. That Pats defense was nothing less than terrific. But he deserved his share of the blame.

 

Very true that stats need context. But this last year the reason Josh's stats weren't very good is mostly that Josh wasn't playing as well at QB as he'd have wished.

 

People wanting to give Allen excuses keep desperately bringing up the drop rate, without pointing out the context there. The context there being that some of the reason he had a lot of drops was that he sometimes throws without touch, putting too much smoke on passes that should have been thrown with touch. The young Elway had the same problem, and also had receivers who dropped a lot and got suddenly better when Elway's touch improved as he got older and smarter.

 

And yeah, even if you kid yourself that Josh had no responsibility for any of the drops and put it all on the receivers ... so you go correct downwards to average drops that would raise his accuracy to above 60%. But again, if you did that, you'd still find that Allen had the 29th best completion percentage in the league among QBs with more than 100 throws. It's not like his completion percentage has suddenly become good if you make that adjustment. Just a bit less bad.

 

But what you're calling context somehow all casts positive light on Allen. What a coincidence, that of all your context, none of it has any negative value. What you're doing is spinning things. Which is fine, but it's clear that what you're calling context is actually one-sided, an attempt to frame things as well as possible for Allen.

 

How come you ask about TD %, but then when you turn to INTs you ask not about INT % but instead who had the most? That's a blatant attempt to twist the facts. Josh had a somewhat higher TD% but threw fewer TDs, 20 to 24. Still good for Josh, with a higher percentage. As for INTs, Allen threw one more INT than Brady, but Brady's INT % was a ton better, Josh's 2.0 was pretty good but Brady's 1.3 was terrific.

 

I'm not clear who had a higher on-target percentage. Where is that stat found? But I do know that as for YPA, Allen''s was fractionally above Brady's, 6.7 to 6.6. But Brady's Adjusted YPA was 0.2 higher than his YPA, at 6.8, while Allen's was the same, both 6.7.

 

Another bit of context is that the Bills had better receivers than the Pats last year, and that the Brady had only two fewer drops registered by his pass catchers than the Bills.

 

Context when well-applied, should work both ways. It should be noted that Allen's vastly more dangerous with his feet as a weapon, but that Brady's still sensational at moving within the pocket. That Brady was probably hurt by his receivers more than Allen. That Allen may get better but that he is immensely accurate sometimes but can't find consistency in that. That Brady had 27 sacks and lost 185 yards while Allen had 38 sacks losting 237 yards despite throwing more than 25% fewer passes. That Allen had huge problems with deep balls despite being decent at them in his rookie year, which leads me personally to think he's going to get better there. That Allen had games where he looked like a franchise QB but also had games where he looked genuinely bad. That Allen played better in the 4th quarter, which is good but leads you to wonder why he wasn't better earlier. That Allen without question improved a lot year to year.

Edited May 20, 2020 by Thurman#1

[thebandit27]

17 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

You say, "he went 10-4 in games he started and finished," and that simply isn't true. The Buffalo Bills are the ones who did that. I believe that if you go back and take a look, you'll see there were 10 other players on the field with Josh pretty much every single play. Wins and losses simply isn't a QB stat. It's a team stat. 

 

And as for those two wins where he didn't finish the game, in one he was 13 for 28 for 153 yards and 0TDs and 3 INTs. He was not without responsibility for that Pats game loss, concussion or not. His passer rating that game was 24.0, and no, that's not a misprint. No, it wasn't all on him, far from it. That Pats defense was nothing less than terrific. But he deserved his share of the blame.

 

Very true that stats need context. But this last year the reason Josh's stats weren't very good is mostly that Josh wasn't playing as well at QB as he'd have wished.

 

People wanting to give Allen excuses keep desperately bringing up the drop rate, without pointing out the context there. The context there being that some of the reason he had a lot of drops was that he sometimes throws without touch, putting too much smoke on passes that should have been thrown with touch. The young Elway had the same problem, and also had receivers who dropped a lot and got suddenly better when Elway's touch improved as he got older and smarter.

 

And yeah, even if you kid yourself that Josh had no responsibility for any of the drops and put it all on the receivers ... so you go correct downwards to average drops that would raise his accuracy to above 60%. But again, if you did that, you'd still find that Allen had the 29th best completion percentage in the league among QBs with more than 100 throws. It's not like his completion percentage has suddenly become good if you make that adjustment. Just a bit less bad.

 

But what you're calling context somehow all casts positive light on Allen. What a coincidence, that of all your context, none of it has any negative value. What you're doing is spinning things. Which is fine, but it's clear that what you're calling context is actually one-sided, an attempt to frame things as well as possible for Allen.

 

How come you ask about TD %, but then when you turn to INTs you ask not about INT % but instead who had the most? That's a blatant attempt to twist the facts. Josh had a somewhat higher TD% but threw fewer TDs, 20 to 24. Still good for Josh, with a higher percentage. As for INTs, Allen threw one more INT than Brady, but Brady's INT % was a ton better, Josh's 2.0 was pretty good but Brady's 1.3 was terrific.

 

I'm not clear who had a higher on-target percentage. Where is that stat found? But I do know that as for YPA, Allen''s was fractionally above Brady's, 6.7 to 6.6. But Brady's Adjusted YPA was 0.2 higher than his YPA, at 6.8, while Allen's was the same, both 6.7.

 

Another bit of context is that the Bills had better receivers than the Pats last year, and that the Brady had only two fewer drops registered by his pass catchers than the Bills.

 

Context when well-applied, should work both ways. It should be noted that Allen's vastly more dangerous with his feet as a weapon, but that Brady's still sensational at moving within the pocket. That Brady was probably hurt by his receivers more than Allen. That Allen may get better but that he is immensely accurate sometimes but can't find consistency in that. That Brady had 27 sacks and lost 185 yards while Allen had 38 sacks losting 237 yards despite throwing more than 25% fewer passes. That Allen had huge problems with deep balls despite being decent at them in his rookie year, which leads me personally to think he's going to get better there. That Allen had games where he looked like a franchise QB but also had games where he looked genuinely bad. That Allen played better in the 4th quarter, which is good but leads you to wonder why he wasn't better earlier. That Allen without question improved a lot year to year.

Wow did you miss the point wildly.

 

The point is exactly that: you can cite whatever statistics you like, but without context they can be manipulated to say whatever you like.

 

As for the first NE game, please. They had just scored their first TD on the previous drive and were marching into NE territory when Josh got a cheap-shot. The ensuing play was a DPI that lead to a 4-and-out from Inside the 5. The idea that one of the best red zone QBs (and one of the best 4th Q QBs) in the game wouldn’t have scored the go-ahead TD there is questionable at best.

[Bangarang]

27 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Wow did you miss the point wildly.

 

The point is exactly that: you can cite whatever statistics you like, but without context they can be manipulated to say whatever you like.

 

As for the first NE game, please. They had just scored their first TD on the previous drive and were marching into NE territory when Josh got a cheap-shot. The ensuing play was a DPI that lead to a 4-and-out from Inside the 5. The idea that one of the best red zone QBs (and one of the best 4th Q QBs) in the game wouldn’t have scored the go-ahead TD there is questionable at best.

Allen got injured on 3rd and 8 with the ball on the NE 45. The 4th quarter had just started (14:54 left) so there was still plenty of time for NE even if we go ahead.

 

Why would you assume that had Josh not been injured the following play would have resulted in the same outcome? Maybe Josh throws another pick on the next play. 

Edited May 20, 2020 by Bangarang

[C.Biscuit97]

18 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

Again, had his WRs merely been average in terms of drop percentage, the 8 fewer drops would’ve put him at 60.5% for the season.

 

So I would say that it’s not a huge difference.

Bandit, this isn’t really directed at you because you are one of the most rational posters here.  But with all due respect, I think this is a cop out.

 

1). What was EJ’s drop rate?  Or JP’s? Or trent’s?  Here’s a stat I found.  At the being of the 2018 season, Derek Carr had the most drops.  Followed by Eli and Blake Bortles.  https://mobile.twitter.com/PFF_Raiders/status/1004801086409068546  
 

2) the top 10 of team dropped passes is a pretty terrible list of qbs.  http://hosted.stats.com/fb/tmleaders.asp?type=Receiving&range=NFL&rank=232
 

miami, Pittsburgh’s garbage after Big Ben, Brady (who everyone here said was washed up but imagine his numbers with those drops!), Chicago (Mitch), Dak (who had amazing numbers. Imagine if he had average receivers how great those would be), Carolina, washed up Rivers, Colts, and Browns.  Also,
 

3) not every drop is the same.  I would bet less accurate have more drops than accurate qbs (per attempts because Brees throws a lot more than other QBs).  There needs to be a way to chart how catchable each qb is.

 

again, the great thing is Allen has all the pieces around him and can change the narrative.  But it’s not like this is some blimp on his radar.  He’s never hit this benchmark.  As Parcells says, you are what your record says you are.   To this point, Allen has been a very accurate qb no matter how some try to change this narrative. 

[Dr. Who]

Just now, C.Biscuit97 said:

To this point, Allen has been a very accurate qb no matter how some try to change this narrative. 

Agreed. Happy Birthday, Josh.

[thebandit27]

50 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

Allen got injured on 3rd and 8 with the ball on the NE 45. The 4th quarter had just started (14:54 left) so there was still plenty of time for NE even if we go ahead.

 

Why would you assume that had Josh not been injured the following play would have resulted in the same outcome? Maybe Josh throws another pick on the next play. 

Should I assume that he would’ve performed worse than Barkley? And again: not the point.

 

33 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Bandit, this isn’t really directed at you because you are one of the most rational posters here.  But with all due respect, I think this is a cop out.

 

1). What was EJ’s drop rate?  Or JP’s? Or trent’s?  Here’s a stat I found.  At the being of the 2018 season, Derek Carr had the most drops.  Followed by Eli and Blake Bortles.  https://mobile.twitter.com/PFF_Raiders/status/1004801086409068546  
 

2) the top 10 of team dropped passes is a pretty terrible list of qbs.  http://hosted.stats.com/fb/tmleaders.asp?type=Receiving&range=NFL&rank=232
 

miami, Pittsburgh’s garbage after Big Ben, Brady (who everyone here said was washed up but imagine his numbers with those drops!), Chicago (Mitch), Dak (who had amazing numbers. Imagine if he had average receivers how great those would be), Carolina, washed up Rivers, Colts, and Browns.  Also,
 

3) not every drop is the same.  I would bet less accurate have more drops than accurate qbs (per attempts because Brees throws a lot more than other QBs).  There needs to be a way to chart how catchable each qb is.

 

again, the great thing is Allen has all the pieces around him and can change the narrative.  But it’s not like this is some blimp on his radar.  He’s never hit this benchmark.  As Parcells says, you are what your record says you are.   To this point, Allen has been a very accurate qb no matter how some try to change this narrative. 

We can debate the merits of the stat, or we can assume that they track it consistently for all QBs/WRs. The thing that I come back to regarding Allen’s inaccuracy is the on-target percentage—it seems to mesh with the eye test. He’s 21st, which I think we all agree isn’t good enough, but I think we similarly agree that it’s not close to the “can’t-hit-the-broadside-of-a-barn” characterization that some folks attribute to him.

 

As I always say about Allen: I’m not going to polish apples; he’s got work to do. The game has to slow down for him, and he’s got to do a better job of knowing when not to go hero-balling. I also believe that he’s closer to being The Guy than many people recognize.

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

We can debate the merits of the stat, or we can assume that they track it consistently for all QBs/WRs. The thing that I come back to regarding Allen’s inaccuracy is the on-target percentage—it seems to mesh with the eye test. He’s 21st, which I think we all agree isn’t good enough, but I think we similarly agree that it’s not close to the “can’t-hit-the-broadside-of-a-barn” characterization that some folks attribute to him.

 

As I always say about Allen: I’m not going to polish apples; he’s got work to do. The game has to slow down for him, and he’s got to do a better job of knowing when not to go hero-balling. I also believe that he’s closer to being The Guy than many people recognize.

 

Agree with all of that and I am glad you phrased the last sentence the way you did. Because ultimately that still comes down to a belief. I think he could be the guy. Not sure I yet am at "he is close to being the guy". That still requires some belief and some faith.

 

The good news is he is further along the road than I expect him to be when drafted. His first year was about what I expected as a passer but with better running than I anticipated. His second season was moderately ahead of the arc I foresaw in terms of passing. 

[Billl]

1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:

Wow did you miss the point wildly.

 

The point is exactly that: you can cite whatever statistics you like, but without context they can be manipulated to say whatever you like.

 

As for the first NE game, please. They had just scored their first TD on the previous drive and were marching into NE territory when Josh got a cheap-shot. The ensuing play was a DPI that lead to a 4-and-out from Inside the 5. The idea that one of the best red zone QBs (and one of the best 4th Q QBs) in the game wouldn’t have scored the go-ahead TD there is questionable at best.

Without that cheap shot, it was 3rd and 17 from just inside midfield.

[Bangarang]

28 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Should I assume that he would’ve performed worse than Barkley? And again: not the point.

Why would you assume anything good or bad? It’s ridiculous. Maybe Josh scores if he’s not injured. Maybe he throws another pick or fumbles. We don’t know. To pretend like you can accurately assume what would’ve happened is stupid. 

 

[thebandit27]

1 hour ago, Billl said:

Without that cheap shot, it was 3rd and 17 from just inside midfield.

Selective memory? There were offsetting fouls on the play 

1 hour ago, Bangarang said:

Why would you assume anything good or bad? It’s ridiculous. Maybe Josh scores if he’s not injured. Maybe he throws another pick or fumbles. We don’t know. To pretend like you can accurately assume what would’ve happened is stupid. 

 

Congratulations! You’ve just realized why the statement “10-4 in games he started and finished” was qualified the way it was!

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:

Selective memory? There were offsetting fouls on the play 

Congratulations! You’ve just realized why the statement “10-4 in games he started and finished” was qualified the way it was!

I’m sorry, but you can’t take a game away from Josh in which he played awful for 3 Q’s, threw horrific INT’s and led us to only 1 TD.

 

I realize he didn’t finish the game. Partly because he didn’t slide. But qualifying Josh’s season as 10-4 is silly. If you wanna say 10-5 in real action, I would agree. But Josh was a huge reason we lost in the Pats game.

[thebandit27]

46 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I’m sorry, but you can’t take a game away from Josh in which he played awful for 3 Q’s, threw horrific INT’s and led us to only 1 TD.

 

I realize he didn’t finish the game. Partly because he didn’t slide. But qualifying Josh’s season as 10-4 is silly. If you wanna say 10-5 in real action, I would agree. But Josh was a huge reason we lost in the Pats game.

He was a huge reason that we were behind, absolutely. He was also a huge part of why it was a 6-point game and we were heading deep into Pats****** territory when he got scummed.

 

I think it’s plenty fair to say that a guy that thrived in the 4th quarter and RZ all season could’ve pulled that game out (as he did in Pittsburgh). Not would have for sure, but saying that he could have shouldn’t result in “rawwwr excuses!!1!1!1!1” type of backlash IMO.

[TwistofFate]

On 5/15/2020 at 8:56 AM, TroutDog said:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AlleJo02/gamelog/2019/
 

I believe the best way to look at Josh is this: look at the defenses he was playing against where he was sub 60%. They’re all the best ones in the league (NE x 2, PITT, Ravens). As he continues to learn to read defenses, those inefficient games should transition to where he was in the rest of the games: 63% or so. 
 

The kid is gonna be great!

Completing mid 40% completion against top 10 defenses in year two is no evidence of being great. 

 

He averaged 48% completion in his final 3 game stretch.  He averaged 34 passes.  Not sure how one can equate that with being great. 

 

The only success he had was against teams with losing records. In fact, he completed above 60% against 1 team with a winning record....the Titans. 

 

The defense nulified those teams with losing records to the point Allen and the offense really didn't need to do much to win. 

 

Games we needed the offense to actually score points to win, they were non existent.  Those games were against teams with winning records that were well rounded. 

 

Allen is going to actually have to win games with his arm this year.  No way the defense does what they did last year with 2020 schedule.   We will have to score to win. 

[gobills404]

Find you a woman who cares about you as much as @TwistofFate cares about completion percentage

[FireChans]

30 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

He was a huge reason that we were behind, absolutely. He was also a huge part of why it was a 6-point game and we were heading deep into Pats****** territory when he got scummed.

 

I think it’s plenty fair to say that a guy that thrived in the 4th quarter and RZ all season could’ve pulled that game out (as he did in Pittsburgh). Not would have for sure, but saying that he could have shouldn’t result in “rawwwr excuses!!1!1!1!1” type of backlash IMO.

It was a 6 point game because our defense was embarrassing Brady and the Pats. We held them to 224 total yards, 11 total first downs and 5-18 on third down. Our offense was 2-13 on third down.  Our offense was dreadful. You should watch that game again if you think Allen was a huge reason we were in it.

[Mango]

2 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

He was a huge reason that we were behind, absolutely. He was also a huge part of why it was a 6-point game and we were heading deep into Pats****** territory when he got scummed.

 

I think it’s plenty fair to say that a guy that thrived in the 4th quarter and RZ all season could’ve pulled that game out (as he did in Pittsburgh). Not would have for sure, but saying that he could have shouldn’t result in “rawwwr excuses!!1!1!1!1” type of backlash IMO.

 

Just to provide some color, the Bills were 26th in Red Zone Trips and 17th in red zone TD% in 2019. Josh himself was 23rd in Red Zone passing TD's completing only 48% of his passes. 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/redzone-passing.htm

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/#all_team_scoring

 

Edit: Josh did rush for 9 RZ TD's which is impressive. 4 were from the 1 yard line and another 1 from the 3 yard line. I am actually hoping those go down a little. We lacked any sort of short yardage bruiser. I would like to see a RB make those plays more often, and run Allen down there enough to keep the defense honest. 

 

Edited May 20, 2020 by Mango
Added Rushing Numbers

[thebandit27]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

It was a 6 point game because our defense was embarrassing Brady and the Pats. We held them to 224 total yards, 11 total first downs and 5-18 on third down. Our offense was 2-13 on third down.  Our offense was dreadful. You should watch that game again if you think Allen was a huge reason we were in it.

He put together a TD drive to get them back in striking distance and was putting together another deep drive when he got hurt.

 

My point here is quite simple: there’s no reason to believe that he didn’t have a legitimate chance to win that game had he not been injured.

[Mango]

18 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

He put together a TD drive to get them back in striking distance and was putting together another deep drive when he got hurt.

 

My point here is quite simple: there’s no reason to believe that he didn’t have a legitimate chance to win that game had he not been injured.

Sure there was a better chance than with Barkley. But Allen and Co. had one of the least red zone trips in the NFL. So  you may feel like he was “leading a deep drive” (they gained 25 yards after a 30 yard return). But the reality is, they were in the area of the field they struggled the most to get past. The Bills has one of the fewest red zone trips in the entire league and were just below average in TD% even when they did get there. 

Allens secret sauce in the red zone has been rushing inside the 3 yard line (5 of 9 RTD) He completed 48% of his passes in the RZ. Again, the real uphill battle for the offense is just getting their, not just finishing the drive. 

[Billl]

5 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

Selective memory? There were offsetting fouls on the play

I literally said “without the cheap shot”.  That was the foul on NE.  Without the cheap shot, there wouldn’t have been offsetting fouls on the play.  Without the offsetting fouls, it would have been third and 17 or 18 from near midfield.  You don’t need to proof my posts.  They’re correct.