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tomur67

Josh's passing stats for 2019 aren't as bad as many people think.

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       In 16 games Josh  completed 271 passes in 461 attempts for a 58.8%.  If he had 2 more completions per game, that would give him 303 completions for a 64.3% average, which is in the range of most NFL quarterbacks.  Yes, there are some QB's with higher completion averages.  For example,  Drew Brees  led the NFL with a 74.3 completion average, but his completion yardage was 2,979 yards, less than Josh's 3089 yards. It looks like Brees and a few other QB's are throwing a few more screen passes or dump off passes than Josh threw.  Plus you have to figure in drops.  All in all, I'm not worried at all about Josh"s accuracy issue,  In my humble opinion, it's not an issue.

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10 minutes ago, tomur67 said:

       In 16 games Josh  completed 271 passes in 461 attempts for a 58.8%.  If he had 2 more completions per game, that would give him 303 completions for a 64.3% average, which is in the range of most NFL quarterbacks.  Yes, there are some QB's with higher completion averages.  For example,  Drew Brees  led the NFL with a 74.3 completion average, but his completion yardage was 2,979 yards, less than Josh's 3089 yards. It looks like Brees and a few other QB's are throwing a few more screen passes or dump off passes than Josh threw.  Plus you have to figure in drops.  All in all, I'm not worried at all about Josh"s accuracy issue,  In my humble opinion, it's not an issue.

How many games did Brees miss though? 4? 5?

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5, but you can’t deny Brees is more accurate. I like Allen a lot, and really hope this year he moves forward.  This year is the year he can do it.

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I’m not worried about Josh until he stops improving. We can talk drops, lack of the long ball, he was the third most pressured qb in the NFL, weapons, etc etc wash rinse and repeat. 
He looked better last year than he did the year before. Let’s see if he can repeat that. If he does......look out NFL

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Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, tomur67 said:

       In 16 games Josh  completed 271 passes in 461 attempts for a 58.8%.  If he had 2 more completions per game, that would give him 303 completions for a 64.3% average, which is in the range of most NFL quarterbacks.  Yes, there are some QB's with higher completion averages.  For example,  Drew Brees  led the NFL with a 74.3 completion average, but his completion yardage was 2,979 yards, less than Josh's 3089 yards. It looks like Brees and a few other QB's are throwing a few more screen passes or dump off passes than Josh threw.  Plus you have to figure in drops.  All in all, I'm not worried at all about Josh"s accuracy issue,  In my humble opinion, it's not an issue.

It's been an issue his entire collegiate career as well as his 2 years now in the pros.  It's most certainly an issue.  It's the single biggest issue he has.

Edited by TwistofFate
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41 minutes ago, tomur67 said:

       In 16 games Josh  completed 271 passes in 461 attempts for a 58.8%.  If he had 2 more completions per game, that would give him 303 completions for a 64.3% average, which is in the range of most NFL quarterbacks.  Yes, there are some QB's with higher completion averages.  For example,  Drew Brees  led the NFL with a 74.3 completion average, but his completion yardage was 2,979 yards, less than Josh's 3089 yards. It looks like Brees and a few other QB's are throwing a few more screen passes or dump off passes than Josh threw.  Plus you have to figure in drops.  All in all, I'm not worried at all about Josh"s accuracy issue,  In my humble opinion, it's not an issue.

I agree it's not an issue.   I mean, he has to complete more passes - for sure, that's an issue.   But I'm not worried about.   Every time I watch replays of all the beautiful balls Allen threw last season, I wonder why people complain about his accuracy.  Allen is a great thrower, plain and simple.   He has to understand more of what's going on on the field, he needs for the game to continue to slow down for him, play after play.   I'm certain he will and it will. 

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Posted (edited)

Another thing on this completion percentage 

If it’s 3rd down the ball is going past the sticks and I freakin love that about Allen. 
A lot of NFL qbs take the check down and punt. One even slid on 4th and 1 or 2. 
Give me the guy that understands it’s third down or fourth down. 

Edited by wvbillsfan
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Posted (edited)

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#average-intended-yards

According to league's next gen stats, Allen had an average intended air yards of 9.4 yards, which puts him tied for 4th highest in the league along with Russel Wilson. So yes, he's definitely not a check down QB.

 

As for the accuracy part, I don't think anyone who actually watched him this year thinks his accuracy and anticipation on the short and intermediate stuff was an issue. But his touch and placement on downfield passes that required him to put a lot of air under the ball were pretty awful for the most part.

15 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I agree it's not an issue.   I mean, he has to complete more passes - for sure, that's an issue.   But I'm not worried about.   Every time I watch replays of all the beautiful balls Allen threw last season, I wonder why people complain about his accuracy.  Allen is a great thrower, plain and simple.   He has to understand more of what's going on on the field, he needs for the game to continue to slow down for him, play after play.   I'm certain he will and it will. 

If our team had dropped passes at the same rate as the rest of the league, he would've hit that 60% completion percentage people always talk about.

Edited by gobills404
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33 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I agree it's not an issue.   I mean, he has to complete more passes - for sure, that's an issue.   But I'm not worried about.   Every time I watch replays of all the beautiful balls Allen threw last season, I wonder why people complain about his accuracy.  Allen is a great thrower, plain and simple.   He has to understand more of what's going on on the field, he needs for the game to continue to slow down for him, play after play.   I'm certain he will and it will. 

100%   He needs to improve his game awareness and take what the defense gives.  He needs to balance the ability to make plays vs hero ball.  If he improves in that area alone, he will:

* cut his turnovers

* increase his completions

* move the ball with a lot less 3 and outs  (which BTW has already decreased)

 

If you want to win in this league your QB  *MUST* take risks.  Just have to do it in a balanced way

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I also don't think Josh has an accuracy issue. I think his throwing platform is nowhere near as consistent as it should be, and I think his pre and post-snap reads and decision-making are what needs to be worked on. 

When his feet are properly set and he's decisive (and he's not worried about throwing picks deep) he can hit any throw every time. 

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He doesn't have accuracy issues, he has processing issues which occasionally lead to shaky throwing mechanics

 

I firmly believe that will improve w/more reps and better receivers provided Daboll can improve concurrently

 

 

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2 hours ago, TwistofFate said:

It's been an issue his entire collegiate career as well as his 2 years now in the pros.  It's most certainly an issue.  It's the single biggest issue he has.

Tell that to the 10 teams this team beat last year.  Technically not ten but you get the point.

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Allen had 33 or 34 drops this past year, with the top teams being in the mid-20s.

 

Completion percentage isn't a direct reflextion of accuracy.

 

I'm excited to see what the kid does in year 3.

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1 hour ago, arcane said:

I also don't think Josh has an accuracy issue. I think his throwing platform is nowhere near as consistent as it should be, and I think his pre and post-snap reads and decision-making are what needs to be worked on. 

When his feet are properly set and he's decisive (and he's not worried about throwing picks deep) he can hit any throw every time. 

You plainly explain his accuracy issues, after you claim he doesn't have accuracy issues. 

 

*smh*

1 hour ago, formerlyofCtown said:

Tell that to the 10 teams this team beat last year.  Technically not ten but you get the point.

What do our team wins have to do with Allen's accuracy? 

 

I find it ludicrous that anyone can sit and say Allen doesn't have accuracy issues.  

 

It's completely mind boggling to me. 

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3 hours ago, TwistofFate said:

It's been an issue his entire collegiate career as well as his 2 years now in the pros.  It's most certainly an issue.  It's the single biggest issue he has.

The single biggest issue he has is completing two less passes per game than he should be? That's a relief.

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Way too many threads discussions and analysis about Josh Allen.  He is a young up and coming QB.  Hopefully he will blossom this year into a star.  (he has that potential)  If he does not show at least strong improvement throughout the season, then we may need to look at possible replacements for him.  Hopefully he will bring his A game most weeks.  And we will have a great season with him leading the way.  The rest is all irrelevant.   

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Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

You plainly explain his accuracy issues, after you claim he doesn't have accuracy issues. 

 

*smh*

What do our team wins have to do with Allen's accuracy? 

 

I find it ludicrous that anyone can sit and say Allen doesn't have accuracy issues.  

 

It's completely mind boggling to me. 

 

Can you provide examples of actual accuracy issues? Decision making I can get behind. He needs to make better decisions, and that includes how much he leads his receivers on deep routes (he's scared to put the ball up for grabs).

 

Allen can fit the ball into tight spaces. He has shown that. He can put the ball where he wants to put it, he just needs to make better decisions sometimes on where to put the ball.

 

And then there is the high drop rate from his receivers to account for, which is partially on Allen sometimes for putting too much heat on the ball or dropping the ball into tight, contested coverage (does it count as a drop if the pass is defensed? Not sure).

 

I don't think Allen has "accuracy" issues, but he does have issues that lead to unnecessary incompletions.

Edited by MJS

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3 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I agree it's not an issue.   I mean, he has to complete more passes - for sure, that's an issue.   But I'm not worried about.   Every time I watch replays of all the beautiful balls Allen threw last season, I wonder why people complain about his accuracy.  Allen is a great thrower, plain and simple.   He has to understand more of what's going on on the field, he needs for the game to continue to slow down for him, play after play.   I'm certain he will and it will. 

The video im going to post right now gets me in trouble, but this is the truth. 

 

People who are questionable of Allen see the things you don't think exist. 

 

 

 

This video shows all the weakness of Allen that people make excuses for. 

 

Take notice to several things throughout this video. 

 

1.  Clean pockets and amount of time Allen has to pass. 

 

2.  Ball placement of each throw.   Was it optimal placement to give the receiver YAC?  How far off the mark is each throw? 

 

3.  Count how many balls counted as DROPS, that were nearly impossible catches that receivers layed out for or jumped through the air or tried to become contortionists to catch. 

 

Allen's single greatest problem is his accuracy.  Thus far in his career he is stilled plagued by his biggest knock....consistency of his throws. 

 

I'm really at a loss that people can't objectively see his major weakness.

 

Can he light it up this year?  Yes.  Did they give him the tools to succeed?   Yes.  Is his accuracy still his biggest concern???   YES

 

Will he step up this season and take this franchise by the reins?????  "?"

 

Imo, history is not on his side. 

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7 minutes ago, MJS said:

The single biggest issue he has is completing two less passes per game than he should be? That's a relief.

Its nice that you package it so nicely to seem miniscule....but...2+ passes a game X 16 games is 32 passes. 

 

He would need 100% completion rating in a game where he threw 32 passes to make up that difference. 

 

It's a lot more than you pretend it to be. 

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16 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

Its nice that you package it so nicely to seem miniscule....but...2+ passes a game X 16 games is 32 passes. 

 

He would need 100% completion rating in a game where he threw 32 passes to make up that difference. 

 

It's a lot more than you pretend it to be. 

No, it's not adding attempts, it is completing two more of his already attempted passes per game (and Allen attempts less passes than most QB's as it is, having a smaller sample size and a smaller margin for error).

 

And really this highlights that there really isn't a big difference between 58.8% and the magical, arbitrary 60%. They are virtually the same.

 

Allen was over 60% as a passer for much of the season. He then faced some of the NFL's best defenses late in the year which dipped him below that number.

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