Week 1 NFL Lines: Bills (-7) vs Jets

[Process]

Way too early for these but fun to look at.

 

Bills pretty big favorites not surprising.

 

How are the dolphins getting 7.5 pts at home vs NE?? I might end up pounding that if it sticks (assuming Fitz is the starter)

 

 

Edited May 8, 2020 by Process

[Warcodered]

I mean the Dolphins have a lot of pieces to put together to beat Belichick.

 

but they might just rub that lamp one more time for some Fitzmagic.

[Process]

1 minute ago, Warcodered said:

I mean the Dolphins have a lot of pieces to put together to beat Belichick.

 

but they might just rub that lamp one more time for some Fitzmagic.

They don't need to win... 7 points is a ton of points to be getting at home vs what I think will be a very average team.

 

And the Dolphins DID beat them outright last year, and the pats have gotten significantly worse since than. 

Edited May 8, 2020 by Process

[Orlando Tim]

I don't bet often but us getting 7 seems high as does Baltimore and NE. Week one though I have never bet because it is too much of a crap shoot that early. Vegas must think a lot of NE bettors will still bet on them.

[Rico]

Too early to touch that game, need to wait a few weeks & see what the Pats look like first.

 

I would gladly take Seattle and give the Falcons +1 though.

[aristocrat]

lotta points between us and the jets. that's a spread that probably will tighten up

[RiotAct]

1 minute ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

I don't bet often but us getting 7 seems high as does Baltimore and NE. Week one though I have never bet because it is too much of a crap shoot that early. Vegas must think a lot of NE bettors will still bet on them.

sounds about right, we’re at home and objectively a better team than the Jets at pretty much every position.

[Ecmic82]

The Dolphins seem like a team that could really, really use the benefit of a full off/pre-season to get up to speed. The Patriots are probably on the opposite end of that spectrum. Whatever that’s worth...
 

If the game were even just a few weeks later I bet the line would be a lot different.

[Warcodered]

Just now, Ecmic82 said:

The Dolphins seem like a team that could really, really use the benefit of a full off/pre-season to get up to speed. The Patriots are probably on the opposite end of that spectrum. Whatever that’s worth...
 

If the game were even just a few weeks later I bet the line would be a lot different.

The Patriots shuffled plenty of players out in FA as always and after a down year for their OL they've got to get things going without that great OL coach they've had.

[GoBills808]

Titans ML

 

 

youre welcome

[Ecmic82]

19 hours ago, Warcodered said:

The Patriots shuffled plenty of players out in FA as always and after a down year for their OL they've got to get things going without that great OL coach they've had.

 

I guess I’m looking at it from mostly a rookie/organizational continuity standpoint, and I’ve a lot of faith in Belichick and his in-game awareness to take advantage of Miami’s probable early-season weak spots, and to minimize the impact of his team’s weaknesses.

 

every team will have aspects of their game that aren’t up to speed week 1. I just think Miami will have more than the average team, and New England will have fewer - and do a better job masking - theirs than Miami.
 

I have no idea what that’s worth in points, though.

Edited May 8, 2020 by Ecmic82

[1ManRaid]

42 minutes ago, Process said:

Way too early for these but fun to look at.

 

Bills pretty big favorites not surprising.

 

How are the dolphins getting 7.5 pts at home vs NE?? I might end up pounding that if it sticks (assuming Fitz is the starter)

 

 

That just looks weird to me.  Home team is supposed to go on the right (road @ home rather than home vs road) unless it is soccer I think.

[NewEra]

I think it’ll be 5.5 2 weeks from game time.  

[JetsFan20]

20 minutes ago, Ecmic82 said:

 

I guess I’m looking at it from mostly a rookie/organizational continuity standpoint, and I’ve a lot of faith in Belichick and his in-game awareness to take advantage of Miami’s probable early-season weak spots, and to minimize the impact of his team’s weaknesses.

 

every team will have aspects of their game that aren’t up to speed week 1. I just think Miami will have more than the average team, and New England will have fewer - and do a better job masking - theirs than Miami.
 

I have know idea what that’s worth in points, though.

You are overthinking it. The best way to make money as a bookie is to split the bets 50-50. Obviously Vegas thinks betters will back the Pats. If money starts pouring in on the Dolphins that line will shrink. 

Look at that Cowboys line. Obviously Vegas is thinking Dallas fans are going to be wreckless. 

Edited May 8, 2020 by JetsFan20

[Billl]

26 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Titans ML

 

 

youre welcome

You and every other $50 player.  Denver and New England all day.

 

I’m planning on pounding the Panthers all year.  Panthers over 5.5 wins in 2020 might be my new ‘Bills over 6.5 in 2019’.  Boy are their message board fans going to get sick of me when I’m their problem instead of yours...

21 minutes ago, Ecmic82 said:

 

I guess I’m looking at it from mostly a rookie/organizational continuity standpoint, and I’ve a lot of faith in Belichick and his in-game awareness to take advantage of Miami’s probable early-season weak spots, and to minimize the impact of his team’s weaknesses.

 

every team will have aspects of their game that aren’t up to speed week 1. I just think Miami will have more than the average team, and New England will have fewer - and do a better job masking - theirs than Miami.
 

I have know idea what that’s worth in points, though.

Yeah.  If there’s one coach in history I want to manage a truncated offseason, it’s BB.  Fade him at your own risk.

[Stank_Nasty]

50 minutes ago, Process said:

They don't need to win... 7 points is a ton of points to be getting at home vs what I think will be a very average team.

 

And the Dolphins DID beat them outright last year, and the pats have gotten significantly worse since than. 

Oh ya. That line immediately stuck out to me. I’ll be tossing some on that when the time comes. 

[Billl]

7 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I think it’ll be 5.5 2 weeks from game time.  

Fade the movement if it does.

[atlbillsfan1975]

6 minutes ago, Billl said:

You and every other $50 player.  Denver and New England all day.

 

I’m planning on pounding the Panthers all year.  Panthers over 5.5 wins in 2020 might be my new ‘Bills over 6.5 in 2019’.  Boy are their message board fans going to get sick of me when I’m their problem instead of yours...

Yeah.  If there’s one coach in history I want to manage a truncated offseason, it’s BB.  Fade him at your own risk.

He doesn’t have players! Good lord. Get over it. 

[Billl]

Just now, atlbillsfan1975 said:

He doesn’t have players! Good lord. Get over it. 

Vegas is so dumb.  What are they thinking?  Take their money.

[atlbillsfan1975]

Vegas was off about the Bills last year. Vegas is hoping for people  like you, who put  way too much credit on Belichick. Let’s see how Bill does next year. If anything take the under on NE. They will struggle to win 6. 

[Process]

47 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Titans ML

 

 

youre welcome

Don't like it. Think they could take a step back this year plus Denver's got a lot of talent and are at home. 

[Billznut]

1 hour ago, Process said:

Way too early for these but fun to look at.

 

Bills pretty big favorites not surprising.

 

How are the dolphins getting 7.5 pts at home vs NE?? I might end up pounding that if it sticks (assuming Fitz is the starter)

 

 

Vegas and ESPN will be the last two entities to stop hugging the Pats jock. It’ll be interesting to see who jumps off the train first. 

[GoBills808]

2 hours ago, Process said:

Don't like it. Think they could take a step back this year plus Denver's got a lot of talent and are at home. 

 

I'll take AFCCG teams getting points vs trendy pick WK1 any day. Lock and his 156 attempts against bad defenses last year doesn't do it for me

 

2 hours ago, Billl said:

You and every other $50 player.  Denver and New England all day.

 

I’m planning on pounding the Panthers all year.  Panthers over 5.5 wins in 2020 might be my new ‘Bills over 6.5 in 2019’.  Boy are their message board fans going to get sick of me when I’m their problem instead of yours

 

lmao ok hotshot. I posted my receipts all last season

 

 

[foreboding]

3 hours ago, RiotAct said:

sounds about right, we’re at home and objectively a better team than the Jets at pretty much every position.

True. But that tackle they got is gonna be a road grader by the middle of the season. 

[SydneyBillsFan]

Can someone please explain something to the dumb Aussie who loves to bet on the NFL:

 

Why oh why in US betting lines for a two- headed contest does the inconsistency exist where some teams receive a full point start (or "spread") whilst for others there is a fractional points start?

 

For example - why are the Bills giving the Jets +7 instead of + 6.5 or + 7.5?? Who the hell wins the bet if the Bills win 21-14? Is this a deliberate scam?

 

What am i not getting here?

[Warcodered]

26 minutes ago, SydneyBillsFan said:

Can someone please explain something to the dumb Aussie who loves to bet on the NFL:

 

Why oh why in US betting lines for a two- headed contest does the inconsistency exist where some teams receive a full point start (or "spread") whilst for others there is a fractional points start?

 

For example - why are the Bills giving the Jets +7 instead of + 6.5 or + 7.5?? Who the hell wins the bet if the Bills win 21-14? Is this a deliberate scam?

 

What am i not getting here?

I'm not super familiar but I think it depends on what your betting in relation to that number which I think is the estimated most likely point difference based on people's betting.

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

9 hours ago, Warcodered said:

but they might just rub that lamp one more time for some Fitzmagic.

Every time that happens, nine months later there's another one!

9 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Titans ML

 

 

youre welcome

The farm?  Or just the chicken coop?

[ExWNYer]

5 hours ago, foreboding said:

True. But that tackle they got is gonna be a road grader by the middle of the season. 

 

He could easily eat his way out of the league by then, too. He is a local kid. And you're right, he's huge and strong. He threw around lesser competition like they were rag dolls. It will be interesting to see how quickly he adjusts to playing against the best players in the world. Of all the OTs taken high this year, he has the biggest bust potential, IMO. Time will tell.

[Process]

2 hours ago, SydneyBillsFan said:

Can someone please explain something to the dumb Aussie who loves to bet on the NFL:

 

Why oh why in US betting lines for a two- headed contest does the inconsistency exist where some teams receive a full point start (or "spread") whilst for others there is a fractional points start?

 

For example - why are the Bills giving the Jets +7 instead of + 6.5 or + 7.5?? Who the hell wins the bet if the Bills win 21-14? Is this a deliberate scam?

 

What am i not getting here?

In that case it's a push and no one wins, you get your money back.

[IDBillzFan]

11 hours ago, NewEra said:

I think it’ll be 5.5 2 weeks from game time.  

 

My book has it there already this morning.

[NewEra]

49 minutes ago, IDBillzFan said:

 

My book has it there already this morning.

It’s really what it should be imo

[SCBills]

However it shakes out with fans-in-stadiums aside, getting the Jets Week One should be great news for our DL.  
 

The Jets made significant investments to rebuild their OL, but will be rolling out an almost completely new OL, first time playing live together, with a rookie Tackle in his first NFL game.  
 

That unit could be solid as the year progresses, but Offensive Line cohesion is a big deal and something we struggled with last year as we basically did what the Jets are attempting to do.  

[IDBillzFan]

31 minutes ago, NewEra said:

It’s really what it should be imo

 

My gambling days are behind me, but for a long time, when it was Bills/Jets or Bills/Fish, if the line was over 3, I'd almost always take the points for the win..

 

It was the other 8 games I got wrong that cured my habit.

[YoloinOhio]

Texans +9.5? Damn BOB that’s harsh 

[Billl]

12 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

 

I'll take AFCCG teams getting points vs trendy pick WK1 any day. Lock and his 156 attempts against bad defenses last year doesn't do it for me

 

 

lmao ok hotshot. I posted my receipts all last season

 

 

I’m not saying you’re wrong.  (I wasn’t trying to “talk down” to you though I see how it came across that way so sorry about that.) I’m well aware of the fact that anyone’s picks are as good as mine.  My initial reaction when the lines were posted was to jump on the Titans.  That was actually the one that jumped out at me.  I have learned to bet the other way when that happens.  My guess is that the smaller bets come in huge on Tennessee and the big money goes Denver.  There are times like this when it seems like Vegas is begging for action on one side.  This is one of those times, so I’ll fade it.

 

I’d be curious to hear any strategies you use.  Some of my faves:

 

Don't bet on games I’m emotionally invested in.  For me, that means the Chiefs.  I’ll play point totals, but not money line or spreads.

 

I love the home team in East coast early games when the road team is traveling 2+ time zones.  That’s more common in college football.

 

When the O/U is unusually high, take the over and vice versa.  That’s more of a CBB thing, but it still works in the NFL.

 

NFL week 2 is the best week of the year.  Bet the opposite of whatever the teams did week 1.  If a team that won big plays a team that got blown out, take the points.  

I also like to closely follow one or two less trendy teams that I have no attachment to and get a feel for them.  Never got enough of a feel for the Bills to put action on them in any given week last year.  They just varied too much from week to week.  I had a feeling they would be pretty good last year, so I took the over.  Like I said earlier, this year I think it’ll be Carolina.  Everyone seems to think they’re going to be terrible.  I don’t see them being good, but 5.5 wins is a pretty low bar.  I’m not 100% on this one yet, but I’m leaning heavily that way.  I still really like the Bills over, so you’re probably stuck with me for a while.

 

Just booked a trip to Vegas last night.

[Slippery Rubber Mats]

Broncos giving points to the Titans?

 

I'll run to the bank with Titans and the points. 

[y2zipper]

There's a few under/over win totals I'd bet this year.

I'm with you on liking Carolina at over 5.5 wins.

Houston over 7.5 wins

New England under 9 wins

Green Bay over 9.5 wins

Chicago under 8.5 wins

 

The week 1 lines don't look that interesting to me right now though.

[Chandler#81]

We’re historically bad when favored by 7+. I can’t bet against the Bills so I wouldn’t touch it with a social distancing pole.

[Bufflow4]

 

[Billl]

Bills straight up against KC on Thursday night.