SI Article: forget about sports this year

[nedboy7]

42 minutes ago, krf139 said:

I am so sick of Health Officials being quoted as saying, "we can't do anything without a vaccine."  Of course they are going to say this.  They are like tornado storm chasers in this mess.  We need a balanced view of opening the country and protecting public health.  It's why the Health Experts should have a say, but not make final decisions.  It's why the Economists should have a say, but not make final decisions.  All this information has to be synthesized and leaders need to make reasonable decisions that balance both.  

 

We don't have leaders at the federal level.  This is about to get really bad. 

Second state of emergency in Japan after trying to open. 

[Punching Bag]

5 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

Well, somebody isn’t bothering to stay current.

China has already opened up Baseball, Japan Baseball is in Spring Training and South Korea is about to begin play.

 

Much of the news coming out of China is false.  Their economy tanked due to their actions and they are trying to force it back up. It is no coincidence that most of medical masks on market came from same area as virus started.

[nucci]

9 minutes ago, loveorhatembillsfan4life said:

Sorry I didn't mean new deal. HIs last year as of right now with the Bills is 2023..Does that move to 2024 if football isn't played in 2020

ahh, ok...nothing has been decided on anything right now so way too soon to tell

[Rc2catch]

Baseball I think is going to try to do something, that’s going to give a very good idea of what chance there is for a season of football. Baseball I read is considering a realigning of divisions for this season and using spring training etc etc. 

If they can run this successfully and players/coaches/trainers don’t get sick it would be a big boost the the nfl being able to have a season. I don’t see anything involving fans in stadiums happening for awhile though. 

[Franco_92]

1 hour ago, plenzmd1 said:

i dunno, the market sure has seemed to reacted positively to the news over the last 10 trading days or so..and those guys also saw the poop hitting the fan before the rest of us did. 

I would be willing to bet all NFL teams will be doing some kind of refund if you request it, and still hold your tickets for the 21 season if games go on.

 

And no, we cannot predict with certainty anything that is going to happen, only a "insert your preferred noun here"would say such a thing. We have thje whole of the world just about looking for theraputics, trying to understand the virus and how it works, and how that plays out no one knows. 

 

 

I just mean pessimism like this article. It's certainly far from everyone, but there are random people who seem to be ramping up their "nothing will be normal for 18 months" mantra just now, after the peak, which was lower than even hopeful people had feared a few weeks ago. 

 

There re will be football this fall - and yes, I am aware that other waves of this virus may happen 

Edited April 14, 2020 by arcane

[Formerly Allan in MD]

Vaccine = sports.  It'll be awhile.

[Tesla03]

9 hours ago, BillsVet said:

No one knows nuthin bout nuthin and these doom and gloom articles are nonsense at this point.  It's kinda like running presidential polls in February when the election is in November.

 

Sports will return and this will pass.  I cannot imagine the rabid NFL fans sitting idly by and not being able to tailgate.  That will not go over well.  

 

I still remember tailgating in the fall of 2009 amid the H1N1 virus.  People were scared but out and about.  

 

 

 

imagine comparing COVID to H1N1

 

this virus is 10x more deadlier and about 4x more contagious. no one is going to give a flying ***** about "rabid NFL fans" if we get a 2nd wave around october like everyone is predeciting. 

 

Fans need to realize the NFL season won't be starting in September this year, or won't be starting until 2021. 

[Doc]

32 minutes ago, Tesla03 said:

imagine comparing COVID to H1N1

 

this virus is 10x more deadlier and about 4x more contagious. no one is going to give a flying ***** about "rabid NFL fans" if we get a 2nd wave around october like everyone is predeciting. 

 

Fans need to realize the NFL season won't be starting in September this year, or won't be starting until 2021. 

 

Agree on the first part.  Disagree on the 2nd.  Games will be played, but at least without fans.  Players, coaches, assistants, etc. will be tested before games.  There's just way too much money to lose.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

10 hours ago, Klaus said:

We are operating on so little real data that all of these predictions are just uniformed guesses. 

 

Lets put it in term this board can understand, it is like your average sports writing giving an opinion on Josh Allen's 2019 performance after not watching a single Bills game last year. Said writer will just regurgitate some narrative they had heard and pass it along as fact. That is what we are seeing even from these experts because no one has enough real data yet.

 

We need to have two things to understand where we are today:

1) Test a random portion of the population of various cities to see if they currently have the coronavirus.

2) Test a random portion of the population of various cities to see if they have had the cornonavirus (antibody test).

 

That's pretty much what we need to do in order to restart all activities that are currently suspended.

 

We need data.

[SirAndrew]

55 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Agree on the first part.  Disagree on the 2nd.  Games will be played, but at least without fans.  Players, coaches, assistants, etc. will be tested before games.  There's just way too much money to lose.

That could be a nightmare scenario imo. If this virus is still circulating, a scenario where we test all players and personnel has the potential to go very poorly.  I can envision hundreds of positive tests on asymptomatic players. The season would be a random crap shoot based on the amount of players who would miss two weeks.  

[Matt_In_NH]

10 hours ago, nucci said:

because vaccines cause autism.

Do they?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Formerly Allan in MD said:

Vaccine = sports.  It'll be awhile.

 

Put me in the "need data" camp. 

 

 

12 minutes ago, mattynh said:

Do they?

 

I think that was sar chasm, but because some may miss it I am contemplating my pruning shears.

[chongli]

10 hours ago, Greg S said:

 

What about tennis. No fans just the ump and the two players. Social distancing could work for that as well.

 

What all the line judges, ball boys/girls, doctors, coaches, replay officials, cleaning crews, maintenance crews, TV  personnel, etc.?

[chongli]

10 hours ago, ytownblofan said:

 

I believe the MLB has agreed to match the service time that the player earned in the previous season. In return, owners only have to pay a fraction of the salaries. In essence a win win for both sides. Players get to become free agents as expected and owners don't have to pay out full salaries. If that happens, I find it hard to believe the NFLPA will be cool with putting a "freeze" on players contracts. If the NFL does push for that, I would expect multiple holdouts and contract demands. 

 

https://nypost.com/2020/03/27/mlb-union-reach-deal-on-service-time-other-coronavirus-issues/

 

That would not be fair to the team, as the Bills would not have Josh Allen on a cheap rookie deal for one year and have less time to evaluate him before offering him an extension. And they would also get one less  year of Trevon Diggs.

[LSHMEAB]

What I don't understand is why the various leagues can't operate without attendees. 

 

Real fans would still watch and they can dub in some noise for the idiots requiring an "atmosphere."

 

Seems very feasible to do contact tracing on a few thousand athletes and the overwhelming majority of the revenue is TV/viewership.

Edited April 15, 2020 by LSHMEAB

[KD in CA]

11 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

And 5G makes Coronavirus.

 

Don't laugh.  My town has proudly 'banned' 5G.   

 

 

The problem is, it will be a slow rollout to return to normal so as to manage future waves of the virus.   On the list of things getting back on track, entertainment like sports and theatre will be last.  Those are the highest risk (huge crowds) and one of the lowest priorities relative to employment.

[chongli]

If there are no NFL and college football seasons, will there still be a combine and then a draft next April?

[thronethinker]

This Pandemic is no doubt very serious, but at the same time we have to get back to normal at some point. You pick the time, but I will gladly go to the opener in September. At some point we need to let go and say it is what it is. After all, in Nature, only the strong survive. That is after all the whole point of natures viruses.....We think we are above nature, but clearly we are not. 

Edited April 15, 2020 by thronethinker

[Tesla03]

2 minutes ago, thronethinker said:

This Pandemic is no doubt very serious, but at the same time we have to get back to normal at some point. You pick the time, but I will gladly go to the opener in September. At some point we need to let go and say it is what it is. After all, in Nature, only the strong survive. That is after all the whole point of natures viruses.....We think we are above nature, but clearly we are not. 

 

its not about getting "back to normal" 

 

if we get back to normal too quickly the hospital system in every major metro area will collapse. 

[HardyBoy]

7 hours ago, TheFunPolice said:

 

I think it's really more about finding treatments that are effective so that this becomes manageable. 

 

This isn't going away, but the entire modern way of life isn't going to end because of a virus, either. 

 

Maybe, but unfortunately they are seeing potential long term, maybe permanent damage outside of just the lungs. This also has the potential to damage T cells kind of like hiv does (though not permanent leading to aids).

 

It is way, way too early to say that even a super minor case of this is no big deal, let alone a typical "mild" case that knocks you down with a 103+ fever for a week and just the craziness of all the other symptoms...we have no idea if there are long term impacts, though it really is starting to look like there are, amd how much impact those are going to have for the rest of a person's life. 

 

Plus, it's very much looking like you aren't going to have a lot of antibodies to this if you don't get really sick potentially. That means no herd immunity. Also, could mean if you only have a little bit of antibodies, you could experience Antibody Dependent Enhancement, which is where the antibodies actually make the infection a lot worse (that's why they need to be so careful with the vaccine).

 

You flat out do not want to catch this if you can avoid it. That said, I understand the awful situation a lot of people are facing where that sounds great, but they can't put food on their family's table without working, or work in an essential role that can't be done remote, or have lost their job because of this...it's crazy, but let's not minimize the potential very significant dangers of this virus that can happen when we look outside of just survived vs dead, and more and more research is showing that this isn't just being careful of the unknown, this is a potentially very damaging virus...even if the death rate comes in sub 1% it could very well cause significant and permanent injury to many many more people (check the line from the second article below about 1 in 5 people and heart damage).

 

T cells: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41577-020-0304-7

 

Long term damage and not just to lungs: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article241953691.html

 

An initial study found that as many as 1 in 5 coronavirus patients who show no respiratory distress suffer cardiac damage, leading to heart failure and even death, Kaiser Health reported.

 

Initial research suggests that coronavirus can directly infect the heart muscle, attaching to receptors in the lungs that are also found in the heart, according to the outlet.

[Doc]

1 hour ago, SirAndrew said:

That could be a nightmare scenario imo. If this virus is still circulating, a scenario where we test all players and personnel has the potential to go very poorly.  I can envision hundreds of positive tests on asymptomatic players. The season would be a random crap shoot based on the amount of players who would miss two weeks.  

 

If they're positive, they go into quarantine.  If there are too many of them, then they cancel the season.

[thronethinker]

Just now, Tesla03 said:

 

its not about getting "back to normal" 

 

if we get back to normal too quickly the hospital system in every major metro area will collapse. 

And as I said. We think we are above nature, but we are not.  A hospital system only treats symptoms, it doesnt stop nature from taking its course. Perhaps if we didn’t have 55 million people in an area of the Earth all living off of wet markets we could avoid this. But alas we play the victim, although in reality we are the the reason for the virus. It wouldn’t exist if we didn’t provide the acceptable conditions to promote it.  

[RyanC883]

8 hours ago, BillsFan17 said:

Doesn't negate that there was good content in the article from medical professionals and professionals in the science field.

 

Also, for all those that think its just as simple as get a vaccine and the world is back to normal... I truly am envious of the life you lead.

 

I was just making a joke about Sports Illustrated and how it's basically terrible at sports coverage.  I didn't even read the article, wasn't a comment onthe article.   

[DuckyBoys]

35 minutes ago, thronethinker said:

And as I said. We think we are above nature, but we are not.  A hospital system only treats symptoms, it doesnt stop nature from taking its course. Perhaps if we didn’t have 55 million people in an area of the Earth all living off of wet markets we could avoid this. But alas we play the victim, although in reality we are the the reason for the virus. It wouldn’t exist if we didn’t provide the acceptable conditions to promote it.  

 

 

I think you are right.  Mother Nature is trying to correct things.  I think we'll be back to some form of amended normalcy sooner than later.  Spanish flu killed  an estimate of 50+ million when the world's population was only 1.8 Billion so there are precedents to look at. I cant see everything in lock down for 6 months, there would be no economy left. I'm sure much smarter people than us are busy calculating every possibility

[transplantbillsfan]

I think the NFL is actually going to have a lot of pressure to have a season, even if that means in empty stadiums.

 

Training Camps don't even start til the very end of July... long way away, and even if Training Camp is the first time teams meet, that month + of work is ultimately the offseason work that matters.

 

I really think there will be a season.

 

But honestly, who knows? Today was the deadliest day in our country for the disease so it doesn't exactly look like it's slowing down.

[Motor26]

7 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

I think the NFL is actually going to have a lot of pressure to have a season, even if that means in empty stadiums.

 

Training Camps don't even start til the very end of July... long way away, and even if Training Camp is the first time teams meet, that month + of work is ultimately the offseason work that matters.

 

I really think there will be a season.

 

But honestly, who knows? Today was the deadliest day in our country for the disease so it doesn't exactly look like it's slowing down.

Of course the NFL will have pressure to start. Goodell and the owners will want to collect any money they can. If they don’t have fans, they’ll just charge PPV like prices for the games.

[leonbus23]

9 hours ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

I don't doubt you've been studying it, so you probably know that the current estimate is 78% of those infected are asymptomatic. And I'm sure you know that the vast majority of those tested thus far in the US are tested because they are showing symptoms. So if we take the US confirmed cases (591,181) and factor in the asymptomatic carriers, that puts us around 2.69M infected. This essentially quarters the mortality rate you are trying to cite, and it's why others are pushing back on using it compared to an established rate from a past event. The raw numbers certainly look scary and are changing by the day, but as of right now we're looking at a mortality rate of ~0.91% which applies to ~0.81% of our country's population. I'm not trying to downplay it or anything, just taking a rational approach to the data.

 

Good luck out there and stay safe! 

 

You're arguing against an estimate with another estimate. Although, I think your estimate is closer than his estimate. 

[Figster]

26 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

I think the NFL is actually going to have a lot of pressure to have a season, even if that means in empty stadiums.

 

Training Camps don't even start til the very end of July... long way away, and even if Training Camp is the first time teams meet, that month + of work is ultimately the offseason work that matters.

 

I really think there will be a season.

 

But honestly, who knows? Today was the deadliest day in our country for the disease so it doesn't exactly look like it's slowing down.

 I agree,

 

By the time football season gets here the US will have had a decent number of confirmed cases that have recovered and are able to go back to a more normal way of living IMO. 

 

Covid 19 survivor ticket discount is what I'm talking about...

[PetermansRedemption]

5 hours ago, Formerly Allan in MD said:

Vaccine = sports.  It'll be awhile.

But your assuming a vaccine actually happens and is successful. Rather imminently. I believe that’s a pretty rash decision. Life is not going to be on pause until a vaccine comes out. It just isn’t going to happen. Maybe if this thing had an indiscriminate death rate. Maybe if the death rate was higher. When the survivability rate is so high for those under 50 and without pre-existing conditions it just isn’t going to happen. I can’t see unprecedented stay at home orders lasting very much longer. They certainly won’t be tolerated if there is a failed vaccine. This is going to become an acceptable risk and an after thought far sooner than people realize. 

3 minutes ago, Figster said:

 I agree,

 

By the time football season gets here the US will have had a decent number of confirmed cases that have recovered and are able to go back to a more normal way of living IMO. 

 

Covid 19 survivor ticket discount is what I'm talking about...

I cannot wait to find out the true number of Covid infections. I think a lot of people are going to be shocked by just how many people have had this. It will also completely murder (pun intended) the mortality rate of Covid and make it far harder for people to justify stay at home orders any longer. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

14 hours ago, Captain Hindsight said:

Why does everyone assume that having 22 grown men running around on a field, not to mention another 100 people on the sidelines, media and refs is safe for those 300 people, but having fans there too is suddenly not safe?

 

My thinking is that we have to ramp up the testing to a huge level. In fact, the NFL should probably be investing or looking for ways to purchase 10's of thousands of tests. I've heard about a 15 minute test. Not sure how it works or if those 200 or so people in the game and on the sidelines could all take the test game day morning and get results back 15 minutes before kick off. Game time decision will have an entire new meaning for fantasy team owners. 

[Nelius]

13 hours ago, aristocrat said:

a few weeks ago they were predicting millions of deaths. now looking more like under 100k. who knows where we will be in a month. 

 

Is this like an Uncle Rico bit? The 26,000 and counting aren't coming back Uncs, but I feel like I'm missing an obvious joke here.

 

12 hours ago, arcane said:

It's been bizarre to watch pessimism increase as our death toll looks more and more like its going to come in at a fraction of the best case scenarios of just two weeks ago.

 

Well to be fair the projections and timelines have been all over the place. It's better than the projections two weeks ago. It's incredibly worse than the projections our government was providing about six weeks ago. Another 2,000+ died today, so it's definitely bad enough.

Edited April 15, 2020 by Nelius

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

12 hours ago, PetermansRedemption said:

Yes, it absolutely is easier to control 300 people than 70,000. They don’t have to follow any rules if they don’t want to, that is their right. They can run around town every night of the week. The only time they will be isolated is the day before game day after they get their rapid test. They aren’t living in isolation for the entire season. 

 

Correct. Players can go about their daily lives. The risk for them, other than possibly becoming ill, is if they get a positive test they'll miss at least a couple games and be in quarantine. 

 

The other issue with the testing of players and personnel before games or throughout the week perhaps multiple times would be one of public perception. The NBA was ridiculed because a handful of NBA players were being tested a few weeks back while the general public was not. 

 

If tests are still in rather short supply will the NFL be able to justify testing it's players and personnel weekly or perhaps 2-3 times a week?

Edited April 15, 2020 by Sammy Watkins' Rib

[BillsVet]

4 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

That's pretty much what we need to do in order to restart all activities that are currently suspended.

 

We need data.

 

And the ability to sift through datasets to identify which data matter.  Right now, there's an overload and it's hard to know what is relevant. 

 

9 hours ago, zonabb said:

I won't attend a game without a vaccine or without the cases being down to zero. Risk health and life for sports, give me a break. To watch a bunch of millionaires make money but extracting it from our pockets and with our health on the line. No F. IN. WAY. I'll demand a refund from the Bills for my STs. 

 

Also, anyone here saying "we know nothing" and can't predict anything is a moron and I'm sure I know where you get your news from and who you'll vote for in November. We can predict, with certainty, what this looks like moving ahead based on certain measures, like social distancing. And I was told yesterday from some well placed people that non-essential people would go back to work in 2 waves. First on July 1, second by mid-August. And even in that case, a fall re-emergence of the disease absent a vaccine or complete eradication would be likely and a shelter in place order would keep every locked up for the holidays.

 

I'd put my money on it's more likely we're still dealing with this well into the fall than Josh Allen exceeding a 62% completion rate and 30 TDs in any season. 

 

6 hours ago, Formerly Allan in MD said:

Vaccine = sports.  It'll be awhile.

 

The vaccine is required mantra is moot when you consider many viruses after years have no vaccine:  

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/19/health/vaccines-poverty.html

 

Vaccines are not easy to develop.  I wish the narrative demanding a vaccine before anything can start would be viewed appropriately.  Things will start before, owing to the fact owners and players want to earn money AND the virus diminishes significantly from current state. 

 

 

[Nelius]

What I find pretty disheartening is the number of people that already seem to think this is almost over. Forget the fringe rubes that still think this is a hoax or overblown, but I've seen so many people that have taken this seriously also start to think that we've turned a corner on it already. I've seen it at work and especially when talking with relatives - people almost seem ready to celebrate because they've hunkered down for a week or two. Yet in a lot of ways this is still just getting started. 2,000+ died today in the U.S., and some of our Southern neighbors are just now starting to see spikes as well (Mexico, Ecuador, Peru). I feel like many still haven't even really dealt with the reality of this all yet, which in turn could mean we're likely far too undisciplined to get our hands around this thing like a few other countries have already started to through rigid, prolonged isolation, which means no chance in hell of football this year.

Edited April 15, 2020 by Nelius

[chongli]

1 hour ago, PetermansRedemption said:

But your assuming a vaccine actually happens and is successful. Rather imminently. I believe that’s a pretty rash decision. Life is not going to be on pause until a vaccine comes out. It just isn’t going to happen. Maybe if this thing had an indiscriminate death rate. Maybe if the death rate was higher. When the survivability rate is so high for those under 50 and without pre-existing conditions it just isn’t going to happen. I can’t see unprecedented stay at home orders lasting very much longer. They certainly won’t be tolerated if there is a failed vaccine. This is going to become an acceptable risk and an after thought far sooner than people realize. 

I cannot wait to find out the true number of Covid infections. I think a lot of people are going to be shocked by just how many people have had this. It will also completely murder (pun intended) the mortality rate of Covid and make it far harder for people to justify stay at home orders any longer. 

 

Life will be on pause until a vaccine comes out, whether people like it or not. There is too much to lose otherwise. They have no choice in the matter.

 

And whether the survivability rate is high among younger people is not the issue. The virus can cause permanent damage to survivors to their hearts, lungs, and brains, no matter their age. Many of those people will need to be in the ICU and require ventilators. When you are on a ventilator, they either sedate you and use paralytics and restraints because you feel like you are drowning when on a ventilator and try to instincitvely pull the cords out, or they put you into an induced coma for a few weeks. Do you want to be on a ventilator or die? Some younger people will die. They will also spread the virus to others before they are symptomatic. If there is a spike, they will overwhelm the medical system.

 

I predict no football this year, and maybe not in 2021 either. All NFL contracts will be frozen. There are more serious things than sports now. This shelter-in-pace is the new normal. It is just the beginning.

Edited April 15, 2020 by chongli

[Punching Bag]

32 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

My thinking is that we have to ramp up the testing to a huge level. In fact, the NFL should probably be investing or looking for ways to purchase 10's of thousands of tests. I've heard about a 15 minute test. Not sure how it works or if those 200 or so people in the game and on the sidelines could all take the test game day morning and get results back 15 minutes before kick off. Game time decision will have an entire new meaning for fantasy team owners. 

 

 

XXX Test - an offical sponsor of the NFL!

[Nelius]

13 minutes ago, chongli said:

And whether the survivability rate is high among younger people is not the issue. The virus can cause permanent damage to survivors to their hears, lungs, and brains, no matter their age. Many of those people will need to be in the ICU and require ventilators. When you are on a ventilator, they either sedate you and use paralytics and restraints because you feel like you are drowning when on a ventilator and try to insticitvely pull the cords out, or they put you into an induced coma for a few weeks. Do you want to be on a ventilator or die? Some younger people will die. They will also spread the virus to others before they are symptomatic. If there is a spike, they will overwhelm the medical system.

 

I agree with everything you said, but also just want to add that a 21 year old baseball player just recently died from Covid in my neck of the woods (Denver).

 

Maybe he had underlying issues. Maybe I do. I'm not really looking for this virus to give me a physical on the spot and punish me for anything I'm unaware of. Fact is anybody can die from it.

Edited April 15, 2020 by Nelius

[Punching Bag]

If there is no sports for a year why will people pay for Sports Illustrated?

[iinii]

16 hours ago, Bleedbuffaloblue said:

Yeah, unless this virus is miraculously wiped out this summer by natural or synthetic means which is highly unlikely all this talk of sports starting back up is just that, talk. A lot of overly optimistic hot air. The logistics are just too daunting when you start really seriously thinking about it and all the ramifications.

As the article says a vaccine is the key. Who knows how long the development and distribution of such will take. I’ve heard anywhere from this fall until this time next year, but no one really knows.

No one wants to fathom the idea of no sports until 2021, but it sure is getting to look like that could be the way this thing ultimately shakes out.

Figures just when our Bills team is ready to make some serious noise the whole thing gets put on hold. Guess we can plan to add “no season” to the list of frustrating moments for our favorite sports teams.

I prefer natural over synthetic 

[SirAndrew]

7 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Correct. Players can go about their daily lives. The risk for them, other than possibly becoming ill, is if they get a positive test they'll miss at least a couple games and be in quarantine. 

 

The other issue with the testing of players and personnel before games or throughout the week perhaps multiple times would be one of public perception. The NBA was ridiculed because a handful of NBA players were being tested a few weeks back while the general public was not. 

 

If tests are still in rather short supply will the NFL be able to justify testing it's players and personnel weekly or perhaps 2-3 times a week?

Exactly, the optics of NFL players getting testing on a regular basis would be terrible. Many health  care facilities are overrun with the virus, yet employees can’t get tested to protect the patients. If that doesn’t change, and tests aren’t abundant, there will be major pushback. I don’t see the testing nonsense working for the NFL.