Josh Allen deep ball misconception

[MJS]

7 minutes ago, Billl said:

If you can’t hit the deep ball with consistency, you’d better be really, really accurate on the short and intermediate stuff to thrive in the NFL.  And there’s no rule against being good at both.

That's just not true. Deep balls are low percentage for everyone. If you hit at 50% that's really good.

 

Edit: This is from two years ago but it shows that the average completion of deep throws was only 46%, and only two QB's finished above 50% and that was just barely above:

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2019/2018-19-deep-ball-project

 

There were only 709 attempts total in the league of deep throws (21 plus air yards). There's something like 17,000 pass attempts total in the league each year, so deep balls are such a miniscule percentage of a passing game. Just 4%.

Edited March 22, 2020 by MJS

[Kwai San]

Based on the eye test and his improvement from year on to year two, his improvement on the most glaring aspect of his game the short intermediate routes I am feeling pretty good that he will improve in the long ball facet.  A solid O line, a better group of wide outs.  Only thing that worries me is the lack of time to get connection with Diggs.  Sure hope the Covoid 19 crap gets over with quick.......otherwise a load of teams not just the Bills are gonna look pretty crappy for awhile. 

[C.Biscuit97]

Honest question: what is Allen’s fault?  I’ve literally never seen a top 10 qb be held less accountable than people hold Allen here.  Nothing is his fault.  It’s the o line.  It’s the receivers can’t catch.  It’s the defense’s for being too good so he doesn’t get to pad his stats. ?

 

Allen definitely shown improvement.  But when a guy hasn’t hit 60% of his passes on any level, including a lower college conference where a top 10 pick should dominate, maybe it’s not everyone else’s fault.  Maybe Allen just needs to get better.  I have zero doubts of his work ethic.  But man, he gets so many excuses made for him, while some of the same posters would rip other qbs for the same things.  
 

just use him like the light skinned Cam Newton and hopes he limits his mistakes.  The Bills are going to try to make him into Brady and that’s a mistake. 

[Augie]

According to Jordan Palmer, Josh has been spending this offseason working on his deep ball. He knows it needs work, and he’s on it.  No point in getting all worked up about it now, I’ll just wait and see how he does this season.  (While praying this season happens as planned.) 

[Rubes]

One of the things that really puzzles me is the O-line play on the long TD pass to Brown at the end of that video. Obviously we don't know what their pre-snap assignments were, but it just boggles the mind when you see it play out.

 

The end zone view shows it best. We know this is going to be a play-action with the line selling a run to the left side. But if you look pre-snap, Ford is lined right over the DE, and Knox is lined up over two players, a LB and a DB. You can see prior to the snap that Knox is looking inside, like his assignment is the DE over Ford. Ford seems to believe his assignment is the LB lined up over Feliciano. I guess that's okay if the play is designed to pull left, but it's a play-action, not an actual run left, which means the LB and DB over Knox are going to be completely unaccounted for...and it's not like Knox doesn't know this is coming.

 

At the snap, Ford moves left, expecting to engage the LB, but Feliciano is already engaged with him. That leaves Ford to block...nobody? Meanwhile, Knox looks inside, and has no hope of blocking an actual NFL DE...which is of course what happens. At the same time, the LB lined up right over Knox at the snap now has nobody blocking him on a play that is designed to leave the QB's backside wide open. Allen, of course, ends up getting creamed as he lets go of the ball.

 

It obviously all worked out in the end, but that whole play just left me wondering WTF. Yeah, Knox and Ford are two rookies up against one of the best defensive minds in the NFL, but seriously, WTF?

 

Edited March 22, 2020 by Rubes

[MJS]

Just now, C.Biscuit97 said:

Honest question: what is Allen’s fault?  I’ve literally never seen a top 10 qb be held less accountable than people hold Allen here.  Nothing is his fault.  It’s the o line.  It’s the receivers can’t catch.  It’s the defense’s for being too good so he doesn’t get to pad his stats. ?

 

Allen definitely shown improvement.  But when a guy hasn’t hit 60% of his passes on any level, including a lower college conference where a top 10 pick should dominate, maybe it’s not everyone else’s fault.  Maybe Allen just needs to get better.  I have zero doubts of his work ethic.  But man, he gets so many excuses made for him, while some of the same posters would rip other qbs for the same things.  
 

just use him like the light skinned Cam Newton and hopes he limits his mistakes.  The Bills are going to try to make him into Brady and that’s a mistake. 

This thread is saying the reason he is not connecting on deep balls is because Allen began playing overly cautious and didn't have confidence in them. He's to blame for that.

 

A couple in this thread have blamed the WR's, but most agree that it is up to Josh to improve this aspect of his game.

[JESSEFEFFER]

Deep shots at New Era in November and December with 20+ mph winds are a real low % play.   It's not like their opponents were hitting them either.  Some don't even try.

[Lieutenant Aldo Raine]

4 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Honest question: what is Allen’s fault?  I’ve literally never seen a top 10 qb be held less accountable than people hold Allen here.  Nothing is his fault.  It’s the o line.  It’s the receivers can’t catch.  It’s the defense’s for being too good so he doesn’t get to pad his stats. ?

 

Allen definitely shown improvement.  But when a guy hasn’t hit 60% of his passes on any level, including a lower college conference where a top 10 pick should dominate, maybe it’s not everyone else’s fault.  Maybe Allen just needs to get better.  I have zero doubts of his work ethic.  But man, he gets so many excuses made for him, while some of the same posters would rip other qbs for the same things.  
 

just use him like the light skinned Cam Newton and hopes he limits his mistakes.  The Bills are going to try to make him into Brady and that’s a mistake. 

 

Why don't you elaborate on that?  Because as much as you say people on this board don't hold Allen accountable here, there are many here LIKE YOU who constantly criticize the kid with the same old arguments.  Perhaps you can elaborate on his improvement every once in awhile to counter your "I never wanted Josh bias".

[Mat68]

19 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

Cool, we agree.

 

Fatal flaw meaning if he doesn’t fix it he will be out of the league? 
 

100% false. Now you’re just being ridiculous and nonsense like this makes it impossible to have a rational discussion.

 

 

This makes no sense
 

PFF lol

 

Itd be easier to say you’re talking out of your rear end because essentially that’s what you’re doing

Where to begin?  Well im not just spewing non sense to start an internet arguement.  Im not writing some peer review journal either.  You think im lying help yourself to prove it.

 

Josh Allen year 1 had terrible weapons.  Im not impressed with the ability of our recievers to for lack of a better phrase help out Allen.  For every great play Knox made he missed easy ones.  For as fast as Jon Brown is for his career his deep ball win rate is much lower than you would expect.  

 

With Allen, those that have been opposed to him from the start have seemed to move the goal posts with him.  Hes too inaccurate.  They got him intermidate weapons he is tops in the league in intermidiate passing. 

 

This year Jimmy G lead the league in many deep ball categories, while also throwing some of the fewest league wide.  Heck Mahomes isnt top 5 and to the naked eye hes by far the best.

 

With everything that ive seen with Allen if deep ball efficentency is the only concern then Buffalo is in great shape.  You feel different thats ok.  Imo Diggs solves alot of problems the passing atrack had last year.  His deep ball catch rate has comsistently been high with multiple Qbs throwing him the ball.  Bridewater, Bradford, Kennum and Cousins.  

[C.Biscuit97]

Just now, MJS said:

This thread is saying the reason he is not connecting on deep balls is because Allen began playing overly cautious and didn't have confidence in them. He's to blame for that.

 

A couple in this thread have blamed the WR's, but most agree that it is up to Josh to improve this aspect of his game.

Good post and I do agree.  
 

this is where I’m at with Allen.  Part of me wants to let him just go out there and rip it.  Let him make mistakes and just live with it.  I want to see if he is a franchise guy instead of just a game manager who makes big plays.  At the same point, I don’t think the coaches fully trust him.  And with our defense, I don’t blame them.  
 

as far as the deep ball, the league has seen a million guys with strong arms who couldn’t make it because they lacked touch. Losman was like this.  He probably was best at throwing deep passes and then would bounce a swing pass.  EJ actually had a cannon but played like a robot and throw mid range passes like he was playing darts.  What makes Mahomes so great is he had a cannon and some of the best touch I’ve seen since Rodgers on deep passes.  Allen doesn’t have that touch on his passes consistently and needs it to be the guy.  And it’s not as easy as some think it is. 

2 minutes ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

 

Why don't you elaborate on that?  Because as much as you say people on this board don't hold Allen accountable here, there are many here LIKE YOU who constantly criticize the kid with the same old arguments.  Perhaps you can elaborate on his improvement every once in awhile to counter your "I never wanted Josh bias".

He was better at the intermediate passes for sure. He was also smarter about taking hits.  He would have quarters and sometimes halves where he played well.  But it’s never consistently for a game and that’s because he isn’t the most consistent qb.   Consistency is what makes franchise guys.  

[Bangarang]

10 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Where to begin?  Well im not just spewing non sense to start an internet arguement.  Im not writing some peer review journal either.  You think im lying help yourself to prove it.

Ahh, the true sign of someone who knows what they’re talking about. A lot of opinion, no sources for anything but if you think I’m wrong then you prove it!
 

10 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Josh Allen year 1 had terrible weapons.  Im not impressed with the ability of our recievers to for lack of a better phrase help out Allen.  For every great play Knox made he missed easy ones.  For as fast as Jon Brown is for his career his deep ball win rate is much lower than you would expect.  

 

Allens weapons during his rookie year were indeed terrible. His receivers were upgraded for last season and yet his deep ball was worse than his rookie year. It’s not as if the receivers constantly couldn’t make plays on balls dropped in a bucket in front of them, majority of the time they were overthrown by several yards and didn’t even have a chance.
 

10 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

With Allen, those that have been opposed to him from the start have seemed to move the goal posts with him.  Hes too inaccurate.  They got him intermidate weapons he is tops in the league in intermidiate passing. 

 

Who here is moving the goal posts? This is a thread about his deep ball and that’s been the basis of my point.

 

10 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

 

This year Jimmy G lead the league in many deep ball categories, while also throwing some of the fewest league wide.  Heck Mahomes isnt top 5 and to the naked eye hes by far the best.

 

With everything that ive seen with Allen if deep ball efficentency is the only concern then Buffalo is in great shape.  You feel different thats ok.  Imo Diggs solves alot of problems the passing atrack had last year.  His deep ball catch rate has comsistently been high with multiple Qbs throwing him the ball.  Bridewater, Bradford, Kennum and Cousins.  

It’s certainly not the only concern and I’m sure Diggs will help Allen and the offense. 

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, Bangarang said:

 

Can you at least agree that Allen is a poor deep ball thrower?

This is the fundamental question, and even this question depends on what we mean by poor deep ball thrower.

 

I think everyone should be able to agree that Allen has not been a productive deep ball thrower.    He hasn't been very efficient throwing the deep ball.   His completion percentage, his yardage, his ability to hit open deep receivers, collectively have not been good enough.   What is or are the causes of his poor production?

 

First, I think that in terms of simply throwing a football, I'd guess that Allen is in the top 10 in the league.   That is, if you run something like a pro day, where a QB is standing in an empty stadium on his home field and receivers are running routes against air, I'm guessing Allen will complete that throw like the best in the league.   Just throwing, no pressure, no nothing.   

 

So I don't think the problem is throwing the deep ball. 

 

The problem has to be about other factors, most of which have to do with other aspects of Allen's game.   It is true that having receivers who get open and having a line that gives appropriate protection has something to do Allen's effectiveness.   However, even those things are things that Allen needs to learn to adjust to.   Brady didn't always have good protection and didn't always have good receivers, so he adapted.   But even more important than dealing with the receivers and line is seeing the game.    If he sees the game, he knows where even mediocre receivers will be open.   If he sees the game, he knows when he needs to bail from the pocket early enough to still make the good throw.   So if he sees the game as well as he should, he knows his receiver is going to be open and he knows his job is just to get to a place to throw it.   Sometimes that means a quick move in the pocket, sometimes it means making an off-balance throw, sometimes it means scramble.   In any case, it means he's getting to a place where his superior pure throwing ability gives him great effectiveness.   

 

Josh's long-term career objective is to learn to process and make decisions like Brady.   Imagine if Brady had been able to throw like Josh.   He would have been unbelievable.   What do you think Fitzpatrick thinks when he looks at Josh.   Fitz thinks, "oh, man, what I could have done with that physical talent!"    That's Josh's objective - to understand the game like Brady and Fitzpatrick do.  And like Brees does.     

 

Right now, Josh is a long way from there, a long, long way.   If he's ever going to be a great one, he has to get better every year for several more years.   At the end of the day, it's all about how Josh learns and can bring to the field.  

[QB Bills]

He was much better deep in his rookie year. His misses were all overthrows this year. I'd bet anything McDermott got in his ear and is the reason for this.

[Mat68]

Im not arguing Allen hasnt been good at it.  For everything thats required from an NFL starting qb deep accuracy is pretty low on the list.  The NFL average for the play is 46.6 percent.  Yes, Allen was below average.  I think I gave reasons why a handful of plays could reasonably fall the other way.  If that happens Allen would be at or above league average.

 

A total of 709 accurate deep passes (ACC) were thrown by 35 qualifying quarterbacks in 2018, an average of 19.0. The total amount of attempts came to 1,520, while the average was 43.4. The average accuracy percentage was 46.6 percent, and in this study 19 quarterbacks finished above that percentile.Jul 26, 2019

Football Outsiders › 2019 › 2018-1...

2018-19 Deep Ball Project | Football Outsiders

 

[Billl]

34 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

This year Jimmy G lead the league in many deep ball categories, while also throwing some of the fewest league wide.  Heck Mahomes isnt top 5 and to the naked eye hes by far the best.

Mahomes is the best QB in the league, but he’s nowhere near the best deep ball thrower.  It’s probably the weakest part of his game.  He’s still pretty good at it, but it’s one of the few areas of his game that he could improve.

[Direhard Fan]

I don't even count his first year.  Thrown into the job as a rookie and no "O" line.  Last year' the line was mostly new.  This year we will have a constant line and Josh's second full year.  We will see a great increase in productivity.  Rome being built. 

[Formerly Allan in MD]

Allen showed a major deep ball upside his rookie year.  Yet he inexplicably regressed last season despite having better receivers.  "Inconsistent" is a term easily earned.  It's also something that's not necessarily easy to fix.  So the jury remains out and eagerly awaits additional evidence.

[CookieG]

1 hour ago, ScottLaw said:

1) Low percentage as it is yet he was among the worst in the league in the category.

2) He certainly has shown he can make all the throws.... and at the same time being wildly inaccurate... consistency is the difference in being a top QB in this league. 

3) Not sure what you mean. He stopped throwing the ball deep after the NE game? He threw plenty going forward after that game and didn't complete  whole lot of them.

4) I'd agree he improved.... but was still bad at the deep ball.

 

I think it's a garbage excuse for his inaccuracy in completing deep balls...hopefully he's working at getting better there in the offseason. 

I know what he means in regard to no. 3. He got to be "cautious" in the deep throws because he looked deathly afraid of underthrowing the ball and risking an INT. Thus, most of his deep balls were line drives 5 yards beyond the WR.

 

It was almost as if he was throwing it away. That's not good though, esp. in a game like the Raven's game..where they were daring him to throw deep. 

 

I'll take the optimistic approach and think he's working on it in the offseason and should improve as he has in other areas. With enough work, there is no reason he shouldn't improve. Sometimes there are only so many things you can work on in a season (or two). 

 

But if he doesn't...he's going to hear it from Diggs, along with all of Diggs' Twitter followers.

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, Bangarang said:

How can he be improving if statistically he’s gotten worse?

 

He hasn't gotten worse statistically.  (passes on the right side skewed by that being his preferred location to throw it away deep)

2019:                                                                                                         2018:

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 minute ago, CookieG said:

I know what he means in regard to no. 3. He got to be "cautious" in the deep throws because he looked deathly afraid of underthrowing the ball and risking an INT. Thus, most of his deep balls were line drives 5 yards beyond the WR.

 

It was almost as if he was throwing it away. That's not good though, esp. in a game like the Raven's game..where they were daring him to throw deep.

 

I don't think he was throwing it away.  Foster, in 2018, had the straight-line speed to be able to run under the ball.

D's got film on Foster and said "OK, that guy's in the game to run deep, jam him up, PI, don't let him by you" (he may also have been hampered by injury)

Beasley is a very fine slot but he should not be running deep speed routes.  He and Brown are both susceptible to being jammed up and slowed down.

 

But I do agree that psychologically or deliberately for a string of games, Josh was placing the ball where the only way the receiver could get it was to run like hell and get under it.

If I were guessing, I'd guess that Josh was connecting on those throws a respectable % in practice but missing in the games, partly from being a bit "juiced", partly from weather, partly from receiver being jammed up a bit and slowed.

 

Towards the end of the season, we did start to see some placement where the receiver could adjust on the ball, eg "Renegade" pass to Brown in the Pitts game.

[JOE IN HAMPTON ROADS]

Allen can throw scary long passes.  Diggs can catch inaccurate passes, in coverage.

 

if Diggs and Allen have chemistry, you are going to see a fusillade of deep balls caught every game.  

 

[Shaw66]

4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

He hasn't gotten worse statistically.  (passes on the right side skewed by that being his preferred location to throw it away deep)

2019:                                                                                                         2018:

That's outstanding, Hap.   It demonstrates a few things.  

 

One is that his overall effectiveness went up nicely.   Second that his deep ball effectiveness went up too.   

 

The note about preferred location and throwaways in 2018 is interesting.   It means in 2019 he was generally throwing the ball way less than his rookie year.   That means he was finding guys to throw to.   

 

It's a picture of a guy who's improving all over the field.   

1 minute ago, JOE IN HAMPTON ROADS said:

Allen can throw scary long passes.  Diggs can catch inaccurate passes, in coverage.

 

if Diggs and Allen have chemistry, you are going to see a fusillade of deep balls caught every game.  

 

Maybe not caught, but attempted.  

 

I think you're correct about that.   They're going to be telling Allen, if it's a 50-50 ball to Diggs, we'll take that bet.   50-50 to anyone else, go someplace else, even a throw away.  

[stinky finger]

4 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

How do we know it was hesitation to put the ball where the WR can make a play and not just a terrible over/under throw?... sorry, I have to assume the latter.

 

Predictable, if nothing else. 

[John from Riverside]

So my question is what can we do to help him out while he overthrows these balls

 

is it a wingspan issue

a speed issue

[Bangarang]

48 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

He hasn't gotten worse statistically.  (passes on the right side skewed by that being his preferred location to throw it away deep)

2019:                                                                                                         2018:

Interesting. I went by the below links.

2018:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2019/2018-19-deep-ball-project

 

2019: https://www.google.com/amp/s/brickwallblitz.com/2020/02/21/the-2019-20-deep-ball-project-part-1-3/amp/

[Shaw66]

17 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

Interesting. I went by the below links.

2018:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2019/2018-19-deep-ball-project

 

2019: https://www.google.com/amp/s/brickwallblitz.com/2020/02/21/the-2019-20-deep-ball-project-part-1-3/amp/

So what does it mean, that two different data crunchers come up with different answers?

 

I think it means it's all more subjective than can be reduced to data in a very meaningful way.   I mean, the data can tell us, relative to the other QBs in the league, how productive he is.   But the data can't even tell us whether he progressed or regressed in 2019.   We're at the limits of the usefulness of the data.   At least at the level of the data that's available to us.   I suspect the Bills have some analytics on Josh that would be cool to see but that is closely guarded.  They know exactly how well Josh is doing and what he has to do to become more productive.  

[longtimebillsfan]

Thanks DJB.  This took a great deal of time and effort on your part.

 

Let's hope all the work Josh is putting in with QB whisperer Jordan Palmer pays off.  In an article I read shortly after the Super Bowl, Palmer explained his technique for helping Josh become more accurate in his deep throws.  After reading that article, I was optimistic that Josh will be more successful going down field in 2020.

 

If Josh can improve this part of his game, I believe it will open up throws underneath as well. (below is a link to one of the articles from Jordan Palmer on Allen.)

 

https://billswire.usatoday.com/2020/02/27/buffalo-bills-josh-allem-ahead-schedule-jordan-palmer/

Edited March 22, 2020 by longtimebillsfan
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[mjt328]

Here is the way I see it...

 

Following Josh Allen's rookie season, the biggest gripe among every critic was that:

a)  He missed too many SHORT throws

b)  He was mostly a scrambler, and didn't do enough with his arm

 

So in the offseason, Allen worked diligently on fixing the weakest parts of his game.  Immediately (even during Preseason and Week 1), you could already see the vast improvement in Allen's accuracy and short passing game.  You could  also see the focus Allen made to become a pocket passer, and to not take off running at every sign of pressure.  But over the course of the first 4-5 games, a new problem emerged:

a)  He was turning the ball over too much

 

So the coaches clamped down, and Allen started being more careful with the ball.  Over the final 9-10 games, Allen had less turnovers than almost every other QB in the NFL.  So the narrative once again switched, and suddenly Bills fans became extremely concerned with:

a)  Inaccuracy on his DEEP ball 

 

Just for arguments sake, I'll ignore the fact that Allen started hitting some nice deep passes during the final quarter of the season (which he did).  The two against the Patriots were among his best throws all year.  My confidence in Allen comes from the inescapable FACT that every time he has started getting a reputation for a bad habit/trait, he has gotten a laser focus on getting better in that area.  And each time, it has worked.  I fully expect Allen to put an emphasis on his deep ball this offseason, along with his penchant for fumbles while scrambling.  

 

[Hebert19]

5 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

This....

 

Dude couldn't hit the broadside of a barn with his deep throws.

After new england game he erred on being long on the deep throws rather than put them up for grabs.  That's all it was in my opinion.  He was gunshy

[Shaw66]

49 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

Here is the way I see it...

 

Following Josh Allen's rookie season, the biggest gripe among every critic was that:

a)  He missed too many SHORT throws

b)  He was mostly a scrambler, and didn't do enough with his arm

 

So in the offseason, Allen worked diligently on fixing the weakest parts of his game.  Immediately (even during Preseason and Week 1), you could already see the vast improvement in Allen's accuracy and short passing game.  You could  also see the focus Allen made to become a pocket passer, and to not take off running at every sign of pressure.  But over the course of the first 4-5 games, a new problem emerged:

a)  He was turning the ball over too much

 

So the coaches clamped down, and Allen started being more careful with the ball.  Over the final 9-10 games, Allen had less turnovers than almost every other QB in the NFL.  So the narrative once again switched, and suddenly Bills fans became extremely concerned with:

a)  Inaccuracy on his DEEP ball 

 

Just for arguments sake, I'll ignore the fact that Allen started hitting some nice deep passes during the final quarter of the season (which he did).  The two against the Patriots were among his best throws all year.  My confidence in Allen comes from the inescapable FACT that every time he has started getting a reputation for a bad habit/trait, he has gotten a laser focus on getting better in that area.  And each time, it has worked.  I fully expect Allen to put an emphasis on his deep ball this offseason, along with his penchant for fumbles while scrambling.  

 

All pretty subjective stuff, but not a bad narrative of what's happened.   

 

All we can do is wait and see.   He needs at least another year of solid growth overall.   He's gotta start being at least a threat to crack the top 10 passer ratings.    He maybe won't get there this year, but he needs solid improvement again.   Some of that growth has to be in the deep ball category, because to be a good offense, it's almost essential that you're a deep threat.   You need that explosive aspect to the offense.  Plus, a lot of other stats start moving up if you get better at the deep ball.   Yards per attempt goes up, TDs probably goes up, completion percentage goes up.   

 

The criticism of his deep ball efficiency is justified.   As you point out, there are plenty of reasons to expect him to improve in that area.  

[Troll Toll]

The deep ball thing is overblown at this point. Some marginal stat improvements and he can boast the numbers of a long term starter:

 

QB rating >= 90 (He was 85 last year)

250ypg passing (He was 193 last year)

60% CMP (He was 58.8 last year)

Basically, if he can build on last year by replacing 1 3&out per game with a successful drive he will likely prove to be the long term answer. He was on the cusp of clearly being the franchise guy last year. He was just short of beating NE twice and winning a playoff game.

[Bangarang]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

So what does it mean, that two different data crunchers come up with different answers?

 

I think it means it's all more subjective than can be reduced to data in a very meaningful way.   I mean, the data can tell us, relative to the other QBs in the league, how productive he is.   But the data can't even tell us whether he progressed or regressed in 2019.   We're at the limits of the usefulness of the data.   At least at the level of the data that's available to us.   I suspect the Bills have some analytics on Josh that would be cool to see but that is closely guarded.  They know exactly how well Josh is doing and what he has to do to become more productive.  

Hap’s chart strictly shows passer rating to different parts of the field. The links I gave go into the numbers a bit more.

[mjt328]

4 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

All pretty subjective stuff, but not a bad narrative of what's happened.   

 

All we can do is wait and see.   He needs at least another year of solid growth overall.   He's gotta start being at least a threat to crack the top 10 passer ratings.    He maybe won't get there this year, but he needs solid improvement again.   Some of that growth has to be in the deep ball category, because to be a good offense, it's almost essential that you're a deep threat.   You need that explosive aspect to the offense.  Plus, a lot of other stats start moving up if you get better at the deep ball.   Yards per attempt goes up, TDs probably goes up, completion percentage goes up.   

 

The criticism of his deep ball efficiency is justified.   As you point out, there are plenty of reasons to expect him to improve in that area.  

 

Not completely subjective.  You can use stats to show the following:

 

- Allen improved in completion percentage and short-game accuracy from 2018 to 2019

- Allen ran less and stayed in the pocket more from 2018 to 2019

- Allen had less turnovers over the last 11 games than during his first 5

- Allen hit on a higher percentage of deep throws in his last 4 games, than during the first 12 games

 

It's subjective to say this guarantees improvement next year, but it should give us some optimism.

 

[Shaw66]

24 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

Not completely subjective.  You can use stats to show the following:

 

- Allen improved in completion percentage and short-game accuracy from 2018 to 2019

- Allen ran less and stayed in the pocket more from 2018 to 2019

- Allen had less turnovers over the last 11 games than during his first 5

- Allen hit on a higher percentage of deep throws in his last 4 games, than during the first 12 games

 

It's subjective to say this guarantees improvement next year, but it should give us some optimism.

 

I was agreeing with you, and I agree with this, to.  

 

My point was a little different.   My point was that, just as you say, he has to improve statistically in a variety of ways, and the data of what's past don't really tell us exactly what he has to do.   If he significantly improves his deep ball accuracy, it will have an impact on all of the data your citing.   Or, he could stay the same on the long ball, not improve at all, and still improve in the categories you cite.   

 

I agree that he has to get better, and I agree that the next step, as you describe it, is a fair estimate of what he needs to do.  Nice if he did more, but what you describe is good solid growth.  I just think there are a variety of ways he could do it.  I also agree that that Allen has a history of improving at parts of his game that have been criticized, so the long ball certainly seems to be an area where we could expect improvement.   If he improves in that category, it will carry him most of the way to your targets for him.  

 

I continue

[Chandler#81]

Deep Ball Misconception??

 

Sounds like an episode title for the Big Bang Theory.

[C.Biscuit97]

https://mobile.twitter.com/QBDataMine/status/1239969831371202567

[BigBillsFan]

18 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

https://mobile.twitter.com/QBDataMine/status/1239969831371202567

 

Those were all catchable balls or drops. We just need an 8'4" burner on the outside with 4.2 speed.

[Cripple Creek]

On 3/22/2020 at 10:28 AM, DJB said:

 

What's the misconception?