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Josh Allen deep ball misconception


DJB

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19 minutes ago, Bangarang said:


You said his deep ball is improving. It’s not and it’s actually gotten worse. Facts don’t care about your feelings.

 

Do you understand that this thread is about Allen’s deep ball? 
 


The question isn’t whether the opportunities to throw deep will be there, it’s whether Allen can take advantage of them and actually complete those passes. So far he’s proven to be a poor deep ball thrower and it’s clearly a problem.

What im saying is deep accuracy is a violtile stat year over year.  Players that are worst routinley lead the league the following year and visa verse.

 

Who did Allen have to throw to the last 2 years?  Having Diggs outside greatly improves the success of his deep ball.  For everything Jon Brown is, what he is not is a consistent deep ball guy.  For his career he is below the NFL in catch rate of deep throws.  Diggs on the other hand has been near the tops in the league in this category his entire career.

 

With 5 to 6 plays being the difference from tops to worst, having Diggs on the recieving end of those plays will greatly improve.  Mind you the guys Allen the past 2 years was throwing these balls to.  He didnt have Tareek Hill or Micheal Thomas.  It was Benjimen, Holmes, Mckenzie, Jones, and Foster I like the odds of him improving.

8 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

It def contributed.... but there were guys open deep early in that game that Allen missed. It would've changed the whole complexion of the game and the Ravens defensive strategy, IMO.

 

They tee'd off on him and the line all game... we didn't make them pay for the Blitz once.

Because they manned up across the board and no one got open.

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One thing I noticed from year one to two was how the ball was thrown deep- in year one he threw ropes deep while last year he threw many more lofted throws. The lifted throws require work and coordination with your recievers, hopefully bit improved this year 

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1 hour ago, ScottLaw said:

How do we know it was hesitation to put the ball where the WR can make a play and not just a terrible over/under throw?... sorry, I have to assume the latter.

And why don't you assume the first? To maintain your penchant for negativity?

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4 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

What im saying is deep accuracy is a violtile stat year over year.  Players that are worst routinley lead the league the following year and visa verse.

 

Do you have a source for this? It’s certainly not true for Allen.

 

4 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Who did Allen have to throw to the last 2 years?  Having Diggs outside greatly improves the success of his deep ball.  For everything Jon Brown is, what he is not is a consistent deep ball guy.  For his career he is below the NFL in catch rate of deep throws.  Diggs on the other hand has been near the tops in the league in this category his entire career.


Can you at least agree that Allen is a poor deep ball thrower? Can you identify that there is in fact a problem? Allen’s weapons have been questionable at best I will agree but anyone who’s watching objectively can see his deep ball was horrific last year. Guys were open and he consistently overthrew them. 

 

4 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

 

With 5 to 6 plays being the difference from tops to worst, having Diggs on the recieving end of those plays will greatly improve.  Mind you the guys Allen the past 2 years was throwing these balls to.  He didnt have Tareek Hill or Micheal Thomas.  It was Benjimen, Holmes, Mckenzie, Jones, and Foster I like the odds of him improving.

Because they manned up across the board and no one got open.


Again, where is your source that shows 5 or 6 plays is the difference from being the best and being the worst?

 

No one got open? Really? Are you really going to say that after watching Allen his first 2 years he didn’t miss any deep balls to open receivers. 

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15 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

What im saying is deep accuracy is a violtile stat year over year.  Players that are worst routinley lead the league the following year and visa verse.

 

Who did Allen have to throw to the last 2 years?  Having Diggs outside greatly improves the success of his deep ball.  For everything Jon Brown is, what he is not is a consistent deep ball guy.  For his career he is below the NFL in catch rate of deep throws.  Diggs on the other hand has been near the tops in the league in this category his entire career.

 

With 5 to 6 plays being the difference from tops to worst, having Diggs on the recieving end of those plays will greatly improve.  Mind you the guys Allen the past 2 years was throwing these balls to.  He didnt have Tareek Hill or Micheal Thomas.  It was Benjimen, Holmes, Mckenzie, Jones, and Foster I like the odds of him improving.

Because they manned up across the board and no one got open.

Russel Wilson and Drew Brees throw beautiful deep balls.  This doesn’t vary by season, and Allen’s deep ball misses weren’t due to lack of weapons.  That isn’t to say he had great weapons, but he misses open receivers routinely.  If his receivers weren’t getting open deep, you might have a point, but when he misses open receivers by 3-5 yards, that’s on him and him alone.

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1 minute ago, ScottLaw said:

Should I just chalk up his terrible overthrows or under throws to him being too cautious? How does that make any sense? 

1) Deep balls are low percentage as it is. 2) Allen has shown he can make all the throws. 3) We saw a change in Allen's aggressiveness in making those throws after the NE game and a more cautious approach to protect the ball. 4) Allen showed improvement over the season as he became more confident and less cautious.

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My belief all along is that Josh Allen is perfectly capable of launching a beautiful deep pass.  I never did any analysis, but I thought early on last season that he was over throwing routinely out of a fear that he would be picked off if he threw it anywhere near the DB.  There were also times when his footwork was awkward.  He needs to come to the point where he is appropriately careful, but not afraid, and uses sound footwork wherever possible.  There is nothing he did wrong that is not easily correctable.

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2 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

So we just chalk up terrible throws from the QB as him being too cautious now? That's the standard? ?

QB's make terrible throws from time to time. All of them do, pretty much. In this specific discussion of deep ball throws with Josh Allen, many of them appear to be due to a focus on ball security for the many reasons already given.

 

Allen has made ugly throws before. Not saying he hasn't. He's a young, developing QB. What we saw a real change in his approach to deep ball throws last season.

2 minutes ago, TigerJ said:

My belief all along is that Josh Allen is perfectly capable of launching a beautiful deep pass.  I never did any analysis, but I thought early on last season that he was over throwing routinely out of a fear that he would be picked off if he threw it anywhere near the DB.  There were also times when his footwork was awkward.  He needs to come to the point where he is appropriately careful, but not afraid, and uses sound footwork wherever possible.  There is nothing he did wrong that is not easily correctable.

And we saw that change after the NE game where he was picked off multiple times.

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6 minutes ago, TigerJ said:

My belief all along is that Josh Allen is perfectly capable of launching a beautiful deep pass.  I never did any analysis, but I thought early on last season that he was over throwing routinely out of a fear that he would be picked off if he threw it anywhere near the DB.  There were also times when his footwork was awkward.  He needs to come to the point where he is appropriately careful, but not afraid, and uses sound footwork wherever possible.  There is nothing he did wrong that is not easily correctable.

He also has a tendency to tuck his throwing elbow close to his body and short arm deep throws.  That’s a much bigger issue than his footwork.

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16 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

 

Do you have a source for this? It’s certainly not true for Allen.

 


Can you at least agree that Allen is a poor deep ball thrower? Can you identify that there is in fact a problem? Allen’s weapons have been questionable at best I will agree but anyone who’s watching objectively can see his deep ball was horrific last year. Guys were open and he consistently overthrew them. 

 


Again, where is your source that shows 5 or 6 plays is the difference from being the best and being the worst?

 

No one got open? Really? Are you really going to say that after watching Allen his first 2 years he didn’t miss any deep balls to open receivers. 

Did he miss throws?  Yes.  Am I concered that he a has a fatal flaw? No.  The point about his recievers.  Unless the ball landed inbewteen the numbers in their arms they didnt catch it.  For 1 that was uncatchable their been 1 where they should have.  During last offseason PFF did a podcast on deep balls.  Just look at the numbers.  The league leaders are under 20 completion.  So 5 to 6 completions equates to 25% thats a big swing.

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21 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Should I just chalk up his terrible overthrows or under throws to him being too cautious? How does that make any sense? 

There were recievers open early in the game on deeper throws. He missed them. 

Every Qb misses them..... Even Mahomes.

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1 hour ago, Bangarang said:

It’s not a misconception, it’s a fact. He was horrible throwing the ball deep last year. 
 

If you also look at his rookie year he was in the bottom 3rd of the league in completing passes deep.

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2019/2018-19-deep-ball-project

 

 

I can't wait for threads like this to disappear after this upcoming season.

 

No more excuses!   No more "Growth".  

 

Either he can do it this year or we find another QB.

 

PLEASE.

 

 

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35 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Did he miss throws?  Yes. 


Cool, we agree.

 

Quote

Am I concered that he a has a fatal flaw? No. 


Fatal flaw meaning if he doesn’t fix it he will be out of the league? 
 

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The point about his recievers.  Unless the ball landed inbewteen the numbers in their arms they didnt catch it. 


100% false. Now you’re just being ridiculous and nonsense like this makes it impossible to have a rational discussion.

 

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For 1 that was uncatchable their been 1 where they should have. 

 

This must mean that Allen was near the top of the league in throwing the most uncatchable passes. This doesn’t help any argument you’re trying to make.
 

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During last offseason PFF did a podcast on deep balls.  Just look at the numbers.  The league leaders are under 20 completion.  So 5 to 6 completions equates to 25% thats a big swing.


PFF lol

 

Itd be easier to say you’re talking out of your rear end because essentially that’s what you’re doing

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6 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

I can't wait for threads like this to disappear after this upcoming season.

 

No more excuses!   No more "Growth".  

 

Either he can do it this year or we find another QB.

 

PLEASE.

 

If Allen never improves on deep balls but continues to be good in the intermediate and improves in the short passing game, he'll be the QB for a long time. Deep balls are nice to have, but it's the short to intermediate passing game that keeps offenses moving and wins football games.

 

But I think he will improve. Especially with Diggs who can actually make contested catches (something we've lacked for years except for the few passes Duke Williams caught) and adjusts well to the ball in the air.

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We saw it all from Allen in the playoff game, the good and the bad.

 

But, he also led them down the field for the tying FG when all the momentum was against the Bills late in the game.

 

And if 55 of teammates didn't miss a block in OT, we are talking about how Allen led the Bills to victory from behind in a playoff.

 

Josh Allen is all of 24 years old with two years of starting experience behind him and McBeane has just supplied him with no excuses for missing deep ball shots now as they just acquired one of the best all around route runners in the game,, who is also one of the very best deep ball threats.

 

We shall see.

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1 minute ago, MJS said:

 

If Allen never improves on deep balls but continues to be good in the intermediate and improves in the short passing game, he'll be the QB for a long time. Deep balls are nice to have, but it's the short to intermediate passing game that keeps offenses moving and wins football games.

 

But I think he will improve. Especially with Diggs who can actually make contested catches (something we've lacked for years except for the few passes Duke Williams caught) and adjusts well to the ball in the air.

If you can’t hit the deep ball with consistency, you’d better be really, really accurate on the short and intermediate stuff to thrive in the NFL.  And there’s no rule against being good at both.

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