HOUSE Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 (edited) This sounds like an awful lot of money you're throwing around... Edited January 7, 2020 by HOUSE 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wizard Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 I appreciate the thoughts and details. The only philosophical part I disagree with you on is that none of your proposed free agents are consistently above average "difference makers." Your proposed salary for those 6 free agents is about 37 million. Sure...these 6 would improve depth and fill spots, but I would rather get 3 free agents with that 37 million or a little more that are younger, more upside, or more proven that are plug-n-play starters/upgrades for a similiar amount of money. Get me any 3 of Henry, Hooper, Bulaga, Conklin, Armstead, Ngaouke, Green or whomever the Bills feel are top tier free agents at the RB/RT/WR/TE/DE, and I believe that money will have been better and more intentionally spent for the success of the Bills. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray Stonada Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 This was amazing, thanks for organizing all this information. Couple comments: 1) This breakdown reminds me of the value of players who can do two things, or even three. They are crucial. For instance, how Steve Tasker was our special teams ace, a very good returner, and a *great* 4th receiver all within one roster spot. 2) We have too many roster spots dedicated to players who play only one function not better others on our team: DiMarco, Roberts, Foster, McKenzie, etc. Less players who can do more beats more players who all 3) Related to this, to me we don't need McKenzie, we can save that 3.5 million, assuming we draft or sign a talented WR. Speedy guys who can run jet sweeps are not that hard to find. 4) Beckham would be cool, but he might not be a process guy. Unless he's a littler humbler since his debacle in Cleveland, and wants to buy into a winning team, the way Randy Moss did in New England (Moss of course was twice as good as OBJ). 5) I'd prioritize finding a solid second running back, a battering ram a la Darick Holmes or Antowain Smith, who can punish defenses once they're tired from chasing Motor all over the phone booth. 6) Maybe we can carry three TEs, instead of four? Save a roster spot that way. Did we really need Knox, Smith, and Kroft and Sweeney? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nucci Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 I don't see Milano getting re-signed. We need better and more consistent LBs around Edmunds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pbomb Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Conklin, aj green, and judon are my 3 targets. Re-sign Wallace, Spain , and k Johnson. Let Shaq and Phillips go and hopefully get comp picks. Extend white & Dawkins at some point. Trade down into the beginning of the 2nd and get an extra 3rd. Go wr, rb, de, and dt with top 4 picks. Then cb, lb, and s for depth in rounds 4-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerJ Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 The earlier and more detailed a prognostication is, the greater the room for error, but criticism is rather pointless. You put a lot of thought and calculation into the effort, and it is rather interesting. It would be interesting to bump this in May and compare it with what the Bills have actually done to that point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfball323 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 I might have missed it, but did you have us re-signing Hyde? That's a critical piece with Poyer. Or can we not afford that tandem for what they'll likely ask for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Putin Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 17 hours ago, NC Book said: I think I would sacrifice what Lee Smith brings in blocking to have the versatility that Ebron would bring to the offense. I think the 2019 Bills would score more ppg with Ebron in the lineup rather than Smith. Maybe only slightly, but I think it would be more. If that would be the case he would be an upgrade imo. I was really disappointed with Lee Smith this year for a veteran to have so MANY freaking penalties is unexeptable IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarleyNY Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 18 hours ago, elijah said: DEFENSIVE END: Jerry Hughes, Shaq Lawson, Darryl Johnson, Mike Love I really appreciate the work you put into your post. Just wanted to touch on the DE specifically. I’d hate this to be our group going into the draft. Shaq has been good enough that I like him in the 3 man rotation, but I don’t think he’s full time starter material. That group needs another quality starter and then I’d be happy with it. I don’t see them cutting Murphy until they had an upgrade in place and I don’t see them getting that thin in the group. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elijah Posted January 8, 2020 Author Share Posted January 8, 2020 19 hours ago, Aussie Joe said: Firstly.. thanks for the effort in the first post... always enjoy reading peoples thoughts in this area, particularly when they are as well throught and as detailed as yours... I want to question you on Spain though... He has already come out and said he wants to stay in Buffalo and is prepared to get a deal done prior to FA starting... So I think your figures of what his expecations may be are on the high side... Also,.. not sure if you have seen this, but a couple of his influential team mates love him... Now I know that they are not going to come out and say anything negative about him, but the comments seem more positive than you usually see... https://billswire.usatoday.com/2020/01/06/buffalo-bills-quinton-spain-back-mitch-morse-josh-allen/ Look.. he is not going to play for nothing ,so I think if they really want him they would need to make an offer that is fair... I would put this at 3 years $20Mil...$10 MIl guaranteed.... Ive got that from John Miller getting paid 3 years $16.5Mil in FA last year who I would rate as a much lesser player.. It seems to me that most people dont want to pay him even half that as he is just an "average" player at the position.. . The issue is though that he was brought in on a "prove it ' deal on chump change, and he has proven it in my eyes.,. It looks at odds to the message that they want to send of guys getting a chance and proving themselves... It may set a bad example if they dont make a genuine attempt to keep him and just let him walk out the door into Free Agency... I have not seen those quotes from Morse answer and Allen about Spain and they definitely make me appreciate him a little more.. However, having signed that deal last year I just think he and his agent have their eyes a little bigger than 3yrs/$20M, probably closer to 4yrs//$35M. I would kove love to have Spain back, but I can’t see Beane wanting to spend that money with what’s already invested in Morse and knowing that Dawkins is coming up as well. 2 hours ago, golfball323 said: I might have missed it, but did you have us re-signing Hyde? That's a critical piece with Poyer. Or can we not afford that tandem for what they'll likely ask for? I didn’t have us resigning Hyde, but just because he still has 2 years left and unfortunately is getting up there in age so I wasn’t sure what an appropriate contract will be. Who knows if if he maintains the same level or starts to take some small steps back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elijah Posted January 8, 2020 Author Share Posted January 8, 2020 8 hours ago, Ray Stonada said: 4) Beckham would be cool, but he might not be a process guy. Unless he's a littler humbler since his debacle in Cleveland, and wants to buy into a winning team, the way Randy Moss did in New England (Moss of course was twice as good as OBJ). 5) I'd prioritize finding a solid second running back, a battering ram a la Darick Holmes or Antowain Smith, who can punish defenses once they're tired from chasing Motor all over the phone booth. I’m a huggggeeeee process and culture fan, and the Randy Moss comparison for OBJ is what I keep using when I’m pushing for Odell. I think Odell has a lot of issues that can all be solved by winning. Most of the noise he makes is related to his losing team. And that second running back I think is going to be found in the draft. The value isn’t their in free agency for anyone besides maybe Jay Ajayi or Jordon Howard 1 hour ago, BarleyNY said: I really appreciate the work you put into your post. Just wanted to touch on the DE specifically. I’d hate this to be our group going into the draft. Shaq has been good enough that I like him in the 3 man rotation, but I don’t think he’s full time starter material. That group needs another quality starter and then I’d be happy with it. I don’t see them cutting Murphy until they had an upgrade in place and I don’t see them getting that thin in the group. I agree that if this is the situation I would want one more DE going into the draft, and I’m actually surprised I didn’t add one to this group. I might go back and add someone like a Robert Quinn on a short term deal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfball323 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, elijah said: I didn’t have us resigning Hyde, but just because he still has 2 years left and unfortunately is getting up there in age so I wasn’t sure what an appropriate contract will be. Who knows if if he maintains the same level or starts to take some small steps back. Looks like he JUST turned 29 on the 31st of December. I think we need to try to re-sign him and keep those two (Poyer) together. If we can't give Hyde what he wants then that's another story. Edited January 8, 2020 by golfball323 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tsaikotic Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 (edited) 15 hours ago, Wizard said: I appreciate the thoughts and details. The only philosophical part I disagree with you on is that none of your proposed free agents are consistently above average "difference makers." Your proposed salary for those 6 free agents is about 37 million. Sure...these 6 would improve depth and fill spots, but I would rather get 3 free agents with that 37 million or a little more that are younger, more upside, or more proven that are plug-n-play starters/upgrades for a similiar amount of money. Get me any 3 of Henry, Hooper, Bulaga, Conklin, Armstead, Ngaouke, Green or whomever the Bills feel are top tier free agents at the RB/RT/WR/TE/DE, and I believe that money will have been better and more intentionally spent for the success of the Bills. I agree and I don't see Beane going after 5 or 8 free agents this year like he did last year...maybe 3 this year...I'd like to keep Shaq and go after Ngaouke and draft a replacement for Hughes...Hughes is 31 and only has 2 years left on his contract w/ a potential out clause after the 2020 season...so it would look like - DE: Hughes, Ngaouke, Lawson, Murphy, Johnson ... Murphy would be my guy out if they draft a good DE this draft....also I feel they should re-sign Jordan Phillips...McD's defense has to have 4 guys that can rush so the rest can do their jobs front four : Ngaouke - Phillips - Oliver - Hughes LBers: Milano - Edmunds - Joseph Edited January 8, 2020 by Tsaikotic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luka Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 I hate everything about this post. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elijah Posted January 9, 2020 Author Share Posted January 9, 2020 6 hours ago, Luka said: I hate everything about this post. Elaborate, let’s have a healthy debate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gambit Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 13 hours ago, golfball323 said: Looks like he JUST turned 29 on the 31st of December. I think we need to try to re-sign him and keep those two (Poyer) together. If we can't give Hyde what he wants then that's another story. I don't understand why people think we need to keep Poyer. McDermott has shown he is very good with finding solid DBs. And Poyer can't tackle worth a damn. Hyde is amazing tho. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray Stonada Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 15 hours ago, elijah said: And that second running back I think is going to be found in the draft. The value isn’t their in free agency for anyone besides maybe Jay Ajayi or Jordon Howard I agree that if this is the situation I would want one more DE going into the draft, and I’m actually surprised I didn’t add one to this group. Agreed, the draft is the best place for the second RB--rookie contract, fresh legs, and we have a long history of finding great runners in the draft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elijah Posted January 9, 2020 Author Share Posted January 9, 2020 6 hours ago, Gambit said: I don't understand why people think we need to keep Poyer. McDermott has shown he is very good with finding solid DBs. And Poyer can't tackle worth a damn. Hyde is amazing tho. I’m not sure you NEED to keep Poyer, but if you have the extra space and he continues playing at the level he is, why not give a bridge to groom your next safety? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jay_Fixit Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 On 1/7/2020 at 2:55 PM, elijah said: I’m not suggesting to resign Allen this off-season, I’m suggesting we resign Allen in 2022 to this money. Its to account for it early so as too not overspend in the long run. Man, out of all the work you put in the one thing that is driving me nuts is the lack of hyphens between “re” and “sign” in your posts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
noacls Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 19 hours ago, Tsaikotic said: I agree and I don't see Beane going after 5 or 8 free agents this year like he did last year...maybe 3 this year...I'd like to keep Shaq and go after Ngaouke and draft a replacement for Hughes...Hughes is 31 and only has 2 years left on his contract w/ a potential out clause after the 2020 season...so it would look like - DE: Hughes, Ngaouke, Lawson, Murphy, Johnson ... Murphy would be my guy out if they draft a good DE this draft....also I feel they should re-sign Jordan Phillips...McD's defense has to have 4 guys that can rush so the rest can do their jobs front four : Ngaouke - Phillips - Oliver - Hughes LBers: Milano - Edmunds - Joseph Ugh. That looks like a 32nd ranked rush defense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr.Mantis_Toboggan Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 8 hours ago, Ray Stonada said: Agreed, the draft is the best place for the second RB--rookie contract, fresh legs, and we have a long history of finding great runners in the draft. If they were thinking to draft a RB as early as the 2nd, I’d be interested to see what the RFA tender will be on Austin Ekler. The offense just needs playmakers all over the field, he outplayed Gordon this year. I’d sign him, then try to find a downhill bruiser in the later rounds to change the pace. Sign Austin Hooper, and AJ Green, as long as the team’s sports science guys think they can keep his injury issues in the past. Re-sign and extended as many on defense as possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tsaikotic Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 2 hours ago, noacls said: Ugh. That looks like a 32nd ranked rush defense. well they'd still have Star, H. Phillips and Lawson to rotate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luka Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 4 hours ago, Jay_Fixit said: Man, out of all the work you put in the one thing that is driving me nuts is the lack of hyphens between “re” and “sign” in your posts. That word would be great if it had the name Brain Daboll in front of it. Otherwise I don't agree with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SCBills Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 (edited) *DP = Draft Pick with Round next to it DE: Hughes, Ngakoue, Lawson, Johnson DT: Oliver, Star, Harry, DP3 LB: Edmunds, Milano, Joseph, Thompson, FA, DP4 CB: White, T Johnson, K Johnson, Wallace S: Hyde, Poyer, Johnson, Neal G/C: Morse, Feliciano, Spain, Long, Bates OT: Dawkins, Ford, Nsehke, Waddle QB: Allen, Barkley (Or upgrade Backup QB) RB: Henry, Singletary, Perry FB: DiMarco TE: Knox, Kroft, Sweeney, Smith WR: DP1, DP2, Brown, Beasley, Duke, Roberts Key Losses: Cut Murphy Lorax Retires Gore Retires or signs elsewhere Phillips signs elsewhere Key Additions: Yannick Ngakoue Derrick Henry Harry back off IR RD1 WR RD2 WR RD3 DT RD4 LB Edited January 9, 2020 by SCBills 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanC883 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 On 1/7/2020 at 4:56 PM, NC Book said: Very intricate post. Good stuff, thanks! Ebron would be a nice get. Legit red zone threat. Adding another high end TE will be a game changer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberal Bob Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Go and get Javon Kinlaw, DT, South Carolina he might be the best athlete for a guy his size to come out in years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfan89 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 I wouldn't classify Allen as a for sure resigning. He has to play better in 2020 and beyond to be a for sure resigning. Milano, Dawkins and Tre are the only ones I would say are "due." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sherlock Holmes Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 On 1/7/2020 at 4:50 PM, elijah said: I broke this down in depth in an excel sheet and this is just a little bit of a recap of the excel sheet. If there's enough interest in the actual numbers, I'll transfer the excel sheet to microsoft one drive or google sheets so y'all can have a look. Also, sorry for the lengthiness of this, I tried to be more brief but also wanted to show that this isn't just a half-ass breakdown and that the numbers were properly taken into account behind it so no one can just shrug it off as not possible. STEP ONE - 2020 OFF-SEASON OUTLINE I took numbers from Spotrac and outlaid the Bills roster for the next 5 years until 2024. I used a projected salary cap of $199,000,000 in 2020, $206,000,000 in 2021 and increased by $6M per year every year following. This is likely lower than what the true salary cap will be, but I was conservative with it intentionally as too not overspend and keep it more realistic. I also went over rookie contracts for pick #20 in each round and found that the cap hit for all 7 rounds of rookies would be somewhere around $6M total. I took this number and rounded it up to $7.25M as too account for the fact that Beane has shown his willingness to trade up and trade dead weight players for late picks. After accounting for projected rookie contracts, current and future salaries and dead cap, this projects the Bills to have salary cap numbers of 2020 - $79.8M (including rollover), 2021 - $97.3M, 2022 - $161M, 2023 - $210.75M. STEP TWO – “TRUE VIEW" Beane has preached over and over again to reward his in house talent and stay out of cap hell. In order to take this into account, before starting to spend the money on current Bills free agents and UFA’s, I gave contracts out too six players that I see as cornerstones for this franchise if we were to find sustained success. The contracts are as follows: Guaranteed Resignings 2022: Josh Allen - 6 years, $190M (6th highest paid QB) 2021: Dion Dawkins - 5 years, $57.5M (14th highest paid T) 2022: Tremaine Edmunds - 5 years, $70M (4th highest paid MLB) 2021: Tre'Davious White - 5 years, $80M (highest paid CB) Likely Resignings 2021: Jordan Poyer - 2 years, $17M (12th highest paid Safety) 2021: Matt Milano - 4 years, $32M (6th highest paid OLB) I understand the numbers aren’t perfect, but they’re projections that at most are just a few million off. Come time, it would be easy to see Dawkins, Edmunds and Poyer possibly getting paid a little more. You could argue that Tre might get a 6 year contract instead of 5. However, again, these are just projections. The contracts should be accurate enough to get the point across. With these projected resignings, this leaves cap space of 2020 - $79.8M, 2021 - $53.3M, 2022 - $71M, 2023 - $129.25M, 2024 - $135.25M. STEP THREE – 2020 OFF-SEASON RESIGNINGS AND CUTS Next up is who the Bills are going to resign and who they won’t resign and the value in these players. This part may become a little more controversial than the last step as too who people think we should and shouldn’t resign, and who we actually will and won’t resign. 2020 Off-Season Resignings Senorise Perry - 1 year, $570k LaAdrian Waddle - 1 year, $2M Kevin Johnson - 1 year, $3.5M Maurice Alexander - 1, $1M Isaiah McKenzie - 1 year, $3.5M Robert Foster - 1 year, $2.75M Corey Liuget - 1 year, $2.5M Dean Marlowe - 1 year, $1M Shaq Lawson - 3 years, $22.5M McBeane have placed an emphasis on special teams players, and therefore with the low values of Perry and Alexander and the contributions they should have to special teams, I believe they’ll be back. I like the depth that Waddle, Liuget and Marlowe offer at the prices they should be willing to resign for and thus suggest bringing them back. I’m not too well versed and the exclusive rights free agent clauses, and therefor don’t see Beane resigning Levi Wallace at what his market value will be and thus think it’s necessary to bring back Kevin Johnson. I have however seen that ERFA can be resigned at incredible value, so it may be possible we see Wallace brought back and Johnson walking. Foster and McKenzie I had trouble making decisions on. With the emergence of Duke Williams and the guaranteed targeting of better receivers in the off-season, it’s possible that both Foster and McKenzie are let go. It’s also possible that McKenzie believes he has more value than $3.5M on the open market, so both of the receiver contracts could be off, but for now this is how I see it playing out. As for Shaq, I thought he would be worth more money but after looking at past defensive end contracts with similar stats to Shaq, $7.5M/year may be his market value. The most comparable contract in the past 3 years was the 3yr/$27M contract that the Bills gave to Trent Murphy, and Murphy had had better stats at that point in his career. As for Jordan Phillips, I originally had the Bills resigning him at 1 year, $10M, but Beane had said this morning that Phillips earned his right to test his value on the open market and therefor I think he’s unfortunately a goner. 2020 Players Leaving Levi Wallace - Bad value Frank Gore - Retired Lorenzo Alexander - Retired Jason Croom - Not needed Quinton Spain - Bad value Julian Stanford - Draft/FA replacement Kurt Coleman - Not needed Jordan Phillips – Test the Market Most of these don’t call for an explanation. Quinton Spain is going to ask for much more money than he’s worth. Probably upwards of 3 years at $8+ per year, and I think Beane proved his ability to find offensive lineman at value this past off-season. Wallace and Phillips were explained above. 2020 Cuts Trent Murphy - $1.75M dead cap, $7.2M savings Matt Barkley - $200k dead cap, $1.8M savings Tyler Kroft - $1.6M dead cap, $4.8M savings in 2020, $6.85M savings in 2021 All three of these guys in my opinion just simply aren’t worth the money that can be had back with such little dead cap. These moves leave us with the following cap figures 2020 - $69.3M, 2021 - $52.7M, 2022 - $63.5M, 2023 - $129.25M, 2024 - $135.25M STEP FOUR – 2020 FREE AGENT SIGNINGS 2020 Free Agent Signings Devin Funchess - 1 year, $9.5M Case Keenum - 2 years, $8M Eric Ebron - 2 years, $16M Demar Dotson - 1 year, $7.5M De'Vondre Campbell - 2 years, $11M Morris Claiborne - 2 years, $9M I may be underestimating the amount of money that Eric Ebron and De’Vondre Campbell are going to demand. However, the moves presented here eliminate any true “needs” in the draft and give the Bills the flexibility to truly draft best player available. This would leave us only truly needing to draft another running back. While following these signings I would still expect a first round pick or a trade to be spent on a receiver, it improves the offense enough that they would be able to suffice next year. Anything extra is just cream on the crop. This also replaces LoRax and Levi Wallace on the defensive side. As for the cap space, there’s still a lot of moves that can be made, however cautiously. 2020 - $29.3M, 2021 - $30.7M, 2022 - $63.5M, 2023 - $129.25M, 2024 - $135.2M. While a lot of people will pound the table for Ngakuoe or an offensive lineman such as Scherff at this point, I say pump the brakes. Ngakuoe is likely to get $15M+ per year, and then suddenly we’d be a bit against the cap in 2021 with less than $15M to take care of the small but still valuable pieces like Jon Feliciano. The cap space is there to make the big move without ruining the ability to sign our young core, but that just comes down to a roster building philosophy. Do you want to be able to have depth behind the young core? Or do you want to pair the young core with a big splash and eliminate the depth, relying on your stars and starters? ROSTER PRIOR TO THE DRAFT QUARTERBACK: Josh Allen, Case Keenum RUNNING BACK: Devin Singletary, TJ Yeldon, Senorise Perry, Pat DiMarco WIDE RECEIVER: John Brown, Cole Beasley, Devin Funchess, Isaiah McKenzie, Robert Foster, Duke Williams, Andre Roberts TIGHT END: Eric Ebron, Dawson Knox, Tommy Sweeney, Lee Smith OFFENSIVE TACKLE: Dion Dawkins, Demar Dotson, Ty Nsehke, Ryan Bates, LaAdrian Waddle OFFENSIVE GUARD: Jon Feliciano, Cody Ford, Spencer Long, Ike Boettger, CENTER: Mitch Morse DEFENSIVE END: Jerry Hughes, Shaq Lawson, Darryl Johnson, Mike Love DEFENSIVE TACKLE: Ed Oliver, Star Lotulelei, Harrison Phillips, Corey Liuget, Vincent Taylor OUTSIDE LINEBACKERS: Matt Milano, De’Vondre Campbell, Vosean Joseph, Maurice Alexander INSIDE LINEBACKERS: Tremaine Edmunds, Corey Thompson CORNERBACKS: Tre White, Taron Johnson, Kevon Johnson, Morris Claiborne SAFETY: Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, Dean Marlowe, Siran Neal, Jaquan Johnson SPECIALISTS: Steven Hauschka, Corey Bojorquez, Reid Ferguson. I haven’t started my scouting yet, but I would say target a WR on day one, RB/O-line/DE/CB on day 2, LB/CB/O-Line/QB on day 3. Keep in mind, the Beane has 6 picks between the 5th and 6th round to trade around with. I could see the Ebron signing being a stretch, and in the scenario that something along those lines don't happen, I would LOVE to add a tight end on day 2. Also, some people with love it, some people will hate it, but I'm personally keeping my eye on Odell Beckham this off-season. I think all of his "character issues" come solely from losing and that he would be a great addition to this offense if the Browns were willing to trade him. You may not agree with the moves I suggested or the exact amount of money I suggested making them for, the points stands true. This team has PLENTY of money to not only retain their own, but improve the roster with outsiders as well. This off-season should be a more than exciting time as a Bills fan. Can we fit McCaffrey and Kuechly into cap situation via trade? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krf139 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 (edited) I stopped reading when you put Josh Allen as a “guaranteed re-signing” for close to 200 million. While Josh made progress this year, the fact we’re putting him into that bucket at those dollars right now is reckless. The Bills qb situation is like a woman who has been single for 20 years. No man wants her and every decent man runs away. Finally she finds someone with a bit of promise, but a number of flaws. She’s been longing for a man for so long that she desperately wants it to work out. While he’s improved a bit, she seeks to justify his shortcomings and wants to make a serious commitment too soon. Spoiler: Josh is the man and the fanbase is the woman Edited January 10, 2020 by krf139 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1st Ammendment NoMas Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 On 1/7/2020 at 4:50 PM, elijah said: 2020 Players Leaving Jason Croom - Not needed Great post and insight, but this! He'll be on the roster to deliver the wood. To whom, well that's another matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elijah Posted January 10, 2020 Author Share Posted January 10, 2020 2 hours ago, billsfan89 said: I wouldn't classify Allen as a for sure resigning. He has to play better in 2020 and beyond to be a for sure resigning. Milano, Dawkins and Tre are the only ones I would say are "due." 1 hour ago, krf139 said: I stopped reading when you put Josh Allen as a “guaranteed re-signing” for close to 200 million. While Josh made progress this year, the fact we’re putting him into that bucket at those dollars right now is reckless. The Bills qb situation is like a woman who has been single for 20 years. No man wants her and every decent man runs away. Finally she finds someone with a bit of promise, but a number of flaws. She’s been longing for a man for so long that she desperately wants it to work out. While he’s improved a bit, she seeks to justify his shortcomings and wants to make a serious commitment too soon. Spoiler: Josh is the man and the fanbase is the woman Maybe poor wording to call him a ‘guaranteed’ resigning, but the point was more to make sure if we were to resign him that we still have the cap space to spend elsewhere. I tried to do a conservative projection of the off-season to assure that we’ll be able to resign our one when we have too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BADOLBILZ Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 On 1/8/2020 at 9:21 PM, ScottLaw said: Terrific work man.... but if the Bills resign Foster and McKenzie and then sign Devin Funchess I might riot... Yeah Devin Funchess is a no go. And I can't imagine anyone giving him another big dollar one year deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LABILLBACKER Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 On 1/8/2020 at 6:21 PM, ScottLaw said: Terrific work man.... but if the Bills resign Foster and McKenzie and then sign Devin Funchess I might riot... If Foster comes back then McD has officially returned to "Peterman" mode. Funchess is awful. I'd rather draft Shenault & Jefferson in the 1st 2 rounds then waste a FA signing on someone like Funyums.....I don't know what to do with McKenzie? I know I'd rather have Duke over him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elijah Posted January 11, 2020 Author Share Posted January 11, 2020 Why so certain Devin Funchess is a no go? He’s a big bodied target that the team needs, he hasn’t had a truly bad year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfan89 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 (edited) If I am mocking my game plan for the off-season I would peg it as such. 1- Cut Murphy and Kroft free up nearly 10 million more in cap space. 2- Resign Lawson, Spain, and Phillips to a combined 27.5 million aav thus still having nearly 74 million in cap space. 3- Sign Yannick to a deal in the range of 17.5 million aav to step up the pass rush 4- Sign Hunter Henry to a one year 7.5 million deal to help add a big target for Allen and allow Knox and Sweeny some time to develop. 5- Draft a big bodied WR in round 1 and draft a between the tackles runner in round 4. 6- Add a CB in round 2 to finalize an elite defense and add a LB in round 3 to sure up that position. All that should still allow the Bills to have about 28 million in roll over to help when Dawkins and Milano need extensions in 2020 while adding Yannick and Henry to help supplement the existing roster and keeping the core free agents. When Tre's contract is up Star and Hughe's contracts become expiring thus this team has a 2 year window to win and win big. Winning beyond the next two years will depend on the drafting in 2020 and beyond as well as Josh's development. But with the existing talent core and the current cap situation you have to be able to "go for it" to an extent in the short term. Edited January 11, 2020 by billsfan89 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfan89 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 21 minutes ago, elijah said: Why so certain Devin Funchess is a no go? He’s a big bodied target that the team needs, he hasn’t had a truly bad year. Funchess wouldn't be an awful signing on a low end one year deal but considering his best season was 850 yards and he is coming off of an injury I don't consider it to be any signing with any sort of impact. He would be a reclamation project for a team that needs a bit of immediate pop. I think WR is the pick at pick 22 and then they are better off trying to get Robby Anderson or Perriman on a 9-10 million dollar one year deal or even kick the tires on AJ Green for a one year 10ish million dollar deal if that's the market for him. OR draft a WR in round 1 and sign Hunter Henry to a one year deal to add a big body at the tight end position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Locomark Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 On 1/7/2020 at 3:50 PM, elijah said: I broke this down in depth in an excel sheet and this is just a little bit of a recap of the excel sheet. If there's enough interest in the actual numbers, I'll transfer the excel sheet to microsoft one drive or google sheets so y'all can have a look. Also, sorry for the lengthiness of this, I tried to be more brief but also wanted to show that this isn't just a half-ass breakdown and that the numbers were properly taken into account behind it so no one can just shrug it off as not possible. STEP ONE - 2020 OFF-SEASON OUTLINE I took numbers from Spotrac and outlaid the Bills roster for the next 5 years until 2024. I used a projected salary cap of $199,000,000 in 2020, $206,000,000 in 2021 and increased by $6M per year every year following. This is likely lower than what the true salary cap will be, but I was conservative with it intentionally as too not overspend and keep it more realistic. I also went over rookie contracts for pick #20 in each round and found that the cap hit for all 7 rounds of rookies would be somewhere around $6M total. I took this number and rounded it up to $7.25M as too account for the fact that Beane has shown his willingness to trade up and trade dead weight players for late picks. After accounting for projected rookie contracts, current and future salaries and dead cap, this projects the Bills to have salary cap numbers of 2020 - $79.8M (including rollover), 2021 - $97.3M, 2022 - $161M, 2023 - $210.75M. STEP TWO – “TRUE VIEW" Beane has preached over and over again to reward his in house talent and stay out of cap hell. In order to take this into account, before starting to spend the money on current Bills free agents and UFA’s, I gave contracts out too six players that I see as cornerstones for this franchise if we were to find sustained success. The contracts are as follows: Guaranteed Resignings 2022: Josh Allen - 6 years, $190M (6th highest paid QB) 2021: Dion Dawkins - 5 years, $57.5M (14th highest paid T) 2022: Tremaine Edmunds - 5 years, $70M (4th highest paid MLB) 2021: Tre'Davious White - 5 years, $80M (highest paid CB) Likely Resignings 2021: Jordan Poyer - 2 years, $17M (12th highest paid Safety) 2021: Matt Milano - 4 years, $32M (6th highest paid OLB) I understand the numbers aren’t perfect, but they’re projections that at most are just a few million off. Come time, it would be easy to see Dawkins, Edmunds and Poyer possibly getting paid a little more. You could argue that Tre might get a 6 year contract instead of 5. However, again, these are just projections. The contracts should be accurate enough to get the point across. With these projected resignings, this leaves cap space of 2020 - $79.8M, 2021 - $53.3M, 2022 - $71M, 2023 - $129.25M, 2024 - $135.25M. STEP THREE – 2020 OFF-SEASON RESIGNINGS AND CUTS Next up is who the Bills are going to resign and who they won’t resign and the value in these players. This part may become a little more controversial than the last step as too who people think we should and shouldn’t resign, and who we actually will and won’t resign. 2020 Off-Season Resignings Senorise Perry - 1 year, $570k LaAdrian Waddle - 1 year, $2M Kevin Johnson - 1 year, $3.5M Maurice Alexander - 1, $1M Isaiah McKenzie - 1 year, $3.5M Robert Foster - 1 year, $2.75M Corey Liuget - 1 year, $2.5M Dean Marlowe - 1 year, $1M Shaq Lawson - 3 years, $22.5M McBeane have placed an emphasis on special teams players, and therefore with the low values of Perry and Alexander and the contributions they should have to special teams, I believe they’ll be back. I like the depth that Waddle, Liuget and Marlowe offer at the prices they should be willing to resign for and thus suggest bringing them back. I’m not too well versed and the exclusive rights free agent clauses, and therefor don’t see Beane resigning Levi Wallace at what his market value will be and thus think it’s necessary to bring back Kevin Johnson. I have however seen that ERFA can be resigned at incredible value, so it may be possible we see Wallace brought back and Johnson walking. Foster and McKenzie I had trouble making decisions on. With the emergence of Duke Williams and the guaranteed targeting of better receivers in the off-season, it’s possible that both Foster and McKenzie are let go. It’s also possible that McKenzie believes he has more value than $3.5M on the open market, so both of the receiver contracts could be off, but for now this is how I see it playing out. As for Shaq, I thought he would be worth more money but after looking at past defensive end contracts with similar stats to Shaq, $7.5M/year may be his market value. The most comparable contract in the past 3 years was the 3yr/$27M contract that the Bills gave to Trent Murphy, and Murphy had had better stats at that point in his career. As for Jordan Phillips, I originally had the Bills resigning him at 1 year, $10M, but Beane had said this morning that Phillips earned his right to test his value on the open market and therefor I think he’s unfortunately a goner. 2020 Players Leaving Levi Wallace - Bad value Frank Gore - Retired Lorenzo Alexander - Retired Jason Croom - Not needed Quinton Spain - Bad value Julian Stanford - Draft/FA replacement Kurt Coleman - Not needed Jordan Phillips – Test the Market Most of these don’t call for an explanation. Quinton Spain is going to ask for much more money than he’s worth. Probably upwards of 3 years at $8+ per year, and I think Beane proved his ability to find offensive lineman at value this past off-season. Wallace and Phillips were explained above. 2020 Cuts Trent Murphy - $1.75M dead cap, $7.2M savings Matt Barkley - $200k dead cap, $1.8M savings Tyler Kroft - $1.6M dead cap, $4.8M savings in 2020, $6.85M savings in 2021 All three of these guys in my opinion just simply aren’t worth the money that can be had back with such little dead cap. These moves leave us with the following cap figures 2020 - $69.3M, 2021 - $52.7M, 2022 - $63.5M, 2023 - $129.25M, 2024 - $135.25M STEP FOUR – 2020 FREE AGENT SIGNINGS 2020 Free Agent Signings Devin Funchess - 1 year, $9.5M Case Keenum - 2 years, $8M Eric Ebron - 2 years, $16M Demar Dotson - 1 year, $7.5M De'Vondre Campbell - 2 years, $11M Morris Claiborne - 2 years, $9M I may be underestimating the amount of money that Eric Ebron and De’Vondre Campbell are going to demand. However, the moves presented here eliminate any true “needs” in the draft and give the Bills the flexibility to truly draft best player available. This would leave us only truly needing to draft another running back. While following these signings I would still expect a first round pick or a trade to be spent on a receiver, it improves the offense enough that they would be able to suffice next year. Anything extra is just cream on the crop. This also replaces LoRax and Levi Wallace on the defensive side. As for the cap space, there’s still a lot of moves that can be made, however cautiously. 2020 - $29.3M, 2021 - $30.7M, 2022 - $63.5M, 2023 - $129.25M, 2024 - $135.2M. While a lot of people will pound the table for Ngakuoe or an offensive lineman such as Scherff at this point, I say pump the brakes. Ngakuoe is likely to get $15M+ per year, and then suddenly we’d be a bit against the cap in 2021 with less than $15M to take care of the small but still valuable pieces like Jon Feliciano. The cap space is there to make the big move without ruining the ability to sign our young core, but that just comes down to a roster building philosophy. Do you want to be able to have depth behind the young core? Or do you want to pair the young core with a big splash and eliminate the depth, relying on your stars and starters? ROSTER PRIOR TO THE DRAFT QUARTERBACK: Josh Allen, Case Keenum RUNNING BACK: Devin Singletary, TJ Yeldon, Senorise Perry, Pat DiMarco WIDE RECEIVER: John Brown, Cole Beasley, Devin Funchess, Isaiah McKenzie, Robert Foster, Duke Williams, Andre Roberts TIGHT END: Eric Ebron, Dawson Knox, Tommy Sweeney, Lee Smith OFFENSIVE TACKLE: Dion Dawkins, Demar Dotson, Ty Nsehke, Ryan Bates, LaAdrian Waddle OFFENSIVE GUARD: Jon Feliciano, Cody Ford, Spencer Long, Ike Boettger, CENTER: Mitch Morse DEFENSIVE END: Jerry Hughes, Shaq Lawson, Darryl Johnson, Mike Love DEFENSIVE TACKLE: Ed Oliver, Star Lotulelei, Harrison Phillips, Corey Liuget, Vincent Taylor OUTSIDE LINEBACKERS: Matt Milano, De’Vondre Campbell, Vosean Joseph, Maurice Alexander INSIDE LINEBACKERS: Tremaine Edmunds, Corey Thompson CORNERBACKS: Tre White, Taron Johnson, Kevon Johnson, Morris Claiborne SAFETY: Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, Dean Marlowe, Siran Neal, Jaquan Johnson SPECIALISTS: Steven Hauschka, Corey Bojorquez, Reid Ferguson. I haven’t started my scouting yet, but I would say target a WR on day one, RB/O-line/DE/CB on day 2, LB/CB/O-Line/QB on day 3. Keep in mind, the Beane has 6 picks between the 5th and 6th round to trade around with. I could see the Ebron signing being a stretch, and in the scenario that something along those lines don't happen, I would LOVE to add a tight end on day 2. Also, some people with love it, some people will hate it, but I'm personally keeping my eye on Odell Beckham this off-season. I think all of his "character issues" come solely from losing and that he would be a great addition to this offense if the Browns were willing to trade him. You may not agree with the moves I suggested or the exact amount of money I suggested making them for, the points stands true. This team has PLENTY of money to not only retain their own, but improve the roster with outsiders as well. This off-season should be a more than exciting time as a Bills fan. Pretty well thought out but I would kill myself before giving Foster $2.75 million and McKenIe can be tendered much lower as well. So I think your cap dollars will actually have more room in the end. I would prefer they stay away from 1 year RT And WR deals because those are positions of weakness. All and all pretty good effort!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elijah Posted January 11, 2020 Author Share Posted January 11, 2020 18 hours ago, billsfan89 said: If I am mocking my game plan for the off-season I would peg it as such. 1- Cut Murphy and Kroft free up nearly 10 million more in cap space. 2- Resign Lawson, Spain, and Phillips to a combined 27.5 million aav thus still having nearly 74 million in cap space. 3- Sign Yannick to a deal in the range of 17.5 million aav to step up the pass rush 4- Sign Hunter Henry to a one year 7.5 million deal to help add a big target for Allen and allow Knox and Sweeny some time to develop. 5- Draft a big bodied WR in round 1 and draft a between the tackles runner in round 4. 6- Add a CB in round 2 to finalize an elite defense and add a LB in round 3 to sure up that position. All that should still allow the Bills to have about 28 million in roll over to help when Dawkins and Milano need extensions in 2020 while adding Yannick and Henry to help supplement the existing roster and keeping the core free agents. When Tre's contract is up Star and Hughe's contracts become expiring thus this team has a 2 year window to win and win big. Winning beyond the next two years will depend on the drafting in 2020 and beyond as well as Josh's development. But with the existing talent core and the current cap situation you have to be able to "go for it" to an extent in the short term. I like the plans, but I don’t think Hunter Henry on a 1 year deal is going to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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