Josh Allen Stat ... wow

[billspro]

8 hours ago, Rigotz said:

Since the Bills Week 6 Bye:

21 Touchdowns, 2 Interceptions (and 2 lost fumbles).

 

During that span here are some of the defenses he has played against:

The #1 defense

The #4 defense

The #5 defense

The #9 defense

The #10 defense

The #11 defense

(stats as of week 16)

 

That's pretty incredible ball security for an "inaccurate" guy.

That’s a brutal schedule. I felt like we were playing great defences every week. That confirms it.

[Thurman#1]

7 hours ago, Dr.Sack said:

The only stat I care about 10-5 as the starting QB. Also it is worth noting Allen has the lowest completion percentage among starting QBs this season. Is this a concern? Sure. Is this the reason we have lost 5 games? No. Is Allen accurate on long passes? He’s improved over the course of the year. IF Allen continues improving his touch and long ball accuracy I have no doubt his underneath throws will become easier as defenses will have to account for his long ball. Think no more cover 0 all out blitzes. 

 

 

That is indeed the most important stat, 10-5.

 

But it is NOT a quarterback stat.

 

It's a team stat. That stat is officially named "Team Record in Games Started By This Quarterback (Regular Season)".

 

TEAM wins.

 

The way to evaluate Josh Allen is to look at how well he does QB stuff. Not to evaluate him based on how well the defense is playing or whether or not or field goal kicker is making his kicks.

[Thurman#1]

8 hours ago, Rigotz said:

During that span here are some of the defenses he has played against:

The #1 defense

The #4 defense

The #5 defense

The #9 defense

The #10 defense

The #11 defense

(stats as of week 16)

 

 

After the bye? That's 10 games. In order:

 

The #32 defence

The #9 defence

The #25 defence

The #20 defence

The #32 defence again

The #10 defence

The #11 defence

The #5 defence

The #4 defence

The #1 defence

 

That is indeed a nasty late schedule, but you can't leave out the easy ones without looking like you've got an agenda. That averages out to a defence ranked 14.9th.

 

 

 

[billsfan1959]

1 hour ago, TwistofFate said:

I pray to the football gods Barkley starts this week against the Jets so fans get a glimpse of what a consistent accurate Qb on this team would look like.

 

Do you mean the same Barkley that, for a career, has a 59% completion rate, 10 TDs, 19 INTs, and a QB rating of 67?

 

Do you mean the same Barkley that was 9 - 16 (56%) for 127 yds, 0 TDs, 1 INT (in the red zone), and a 54 QB rating in the 1st NE game this year?

 

You need to say no more. This says everything we need to know.

Edited December 24, 2019 by billsfan1959

[oldmanfan]

29 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Are you misreading your own stats? We're not at the bottom of the league targeting RBs. Your own link there has a bunch of other teams with lower RB targets, Seattle, the Rams, the Titans, the Ravens and the Texans. More, we simply throw fewer passes than most teams, we're 27th in the league in attempts. So of course we're likely to throw less passes to RBs than most. Probably less passes to WRs as well ... we just throw less passes.

 

Look at the Cowboys, who've thrown 67 to Zeke alone. We've only thrown 73 passes to backs, while the Cowboys have thrown 87. But we've only thrown 473 passes, while the Cowboys have thrown 564 passes, meaning they throw 15.4% of their passes to backs while we also throw 15.4%. Go out an extra decimal place and you find we throw more to backs than they do.

 

Some teams tend to have the RBs block more on pass plays, and we're one of them. That's not a bad thing for the QB, having an extra blocker as a last reserve.

 

Most of the reason Josh's % is low is that he airmails a few inaccurate passes a game. That's not the only factor, of course, but it is the main one.

It would be interesting to compare the number of few inaccurate passes with the number of dropped passes.

[JESSEFEFFER]

8 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

Seems like you're describing Tyrod here. 

 

I don't know what games you've been watching but several times per game I usually lose my breath at some of the throws Allen makes when he fits the ball between 3 defenders for a completion.  I don't see him shying away from throwing into very tight windows.  he just happens to get them there most of the time.

 

 

 

100%.  All it would take is for a slight tip or a bobble and it would be picked.  By the distance they would appear to be easy throws but when you see the replay you realize what having a big time arm actually provides.  It's not a 60 yard throw, it's more what it can do with limited time in small spaces.

[Reks Ryan]

7 hours ago, Dr.Sack said:

The only stat I care about 10-5 as the starting QB. Also it is worth noting Allen has the lowest completion percentage among starting QBs this season. Is this a concern? Sure. Is this the reason we have lost 5 games? No. Is Allen accurate on long passes? He’s improved over the course of the year. IF Allen continues improving his touch and long ball accuracy I have no doubt his underneath throws will become easier as defenses will have to account for his long ball. Think no more cover 0 all out blitzes. 

Well, Allen has a completion % of 53.5% or less in 6 games, and 5 were losses. Only win was against Steelers. He has completion % over 60% in the 9 other games and all were wins.

 

So low completion % has been a significant factor in Bills 5 losses.

http://www.nfl.com/player/joshallen/2560955/gamelogs

[Billsfan1972]

16 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

After the bye? That's 10 games. In order:

 

The #32 defence

The #9 defence

The #25 defence

The #20 defence

The #32 defence again

The #10 defence

The #11 defence

The #5 defence

The #4 defence

The #1 defence

 

That is indeed a nasty late schedule, but you can't leave out the easy ones without looking like you've got an agenda. That averages out to a defence ranked 14.9th.

 

 

 

And first 5.....  19, 29, 25, 1 & 13.....  or right around @ 16 over the entire year....

 

Conversely Defense average strength of opposing  Offenses 20.125 (in terms of points).

 

 

 

 

[Thurman#1]

10 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

It would be interesting to compare the number of few inaccurate passes with the number of dropped passes.

 

 

It might. Here's a quick start. There are several sites that look at drops and they tell somewhat different stories because drops are a somewhat subjective thing.

 

Here's one:  http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/tmleaders.asp?range=NFL&rank=232&type=Receiving

 

They list the Bills as having the 3rd highest total of drops in the league!!!!!!!!!!!!! 22 drops. League average is about 17. That means the Bills have dropped around five more passes than average. If you added in five completions to Josh's stats, his completion percentage would go up to 59.8%, soaring all the way up from 32nd to 31st.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

7 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

Agreed. The fact that he mentions "jitters" further solidifies my opinion that a great deal of the accuracy issues are psychological. He's a really bright guy, and it appears as though he's "thinking" instead of "playing" when he's off.

 

If he's going to take that next step, he needs to CONSISTENTLY play and not think. We saw it for a three game stretch so it's attainable. We'll see what happens. If he can't shake it, he could very well stall in his progression or only slightly improve.

 

Didn't like Daboll or his track record coming in and I like him even less now that we've seen both poor play calls AND scolding a QB for a mistake when he's at his best NOT thinking about mistakes. He knew it was a poor throw/decision. What's the point of berating him for it? Absolutely the WRONG approach when it comes to Allen.

 

All that said, he's gotta figure this out somehow. In all likelihood, there isn't gonna be a third coordinator in McDermott's fourth year, so they need to co-exist. 

 

I remember earlier in the season he was doing some kind of hand gesture that had nothing to do with signaling a play call, celebration, etc. It was like a wave type of movement that seemed to be a relaxation "exercise." Not sure why it stopped, but my hope is that with experience, he'll realize that mistakes are going to happen. Shorten that memory and let the chips fall where they may on any given pass. 

 

I also have Big Time Daboll concerns.  They have nothing to do with getting in a player's grill after he makes a dumb move on the field.  More later.

 

Allen has several different types of missing receivers.  One of them is the deep overthrows.  Several people who know something have weighed in on these, and the consensus seems to be it's an issue of technique.  But whatever technique he's using, my educated guess is that if Allen weren't hitting these throws pretty routinely in practice, they wouldn't put them in the game.  The Pats game was interesting, because he made the same throw to Knox 2x in the first half.  The first was long.  The second was Money.    I don't think Knox ran the route the same way both times. I think he failed to get clean release off the line the 1st time and got interfered with downfield (possibly he stumbled, but on the all-22 the DB is right there as he slows).  On the second Knox got a great clean release and ran a clean route.  (Maybe someone who has access to those cute little moving diagrams YPP puts up can bring them in).  The second throw looked as though it was thrown with more of an arc to it, and also a fraction of a second later.   The point is that there is more than one thing at play when Allen is missing throws.  But one aspect may be that under pressure in a game he's reverting technique especially at first. 

 

I'm not sure playing a "game before a game" will help Josh.  Enough realistic throws to benchmark his technique and get the "feel" of the right technique into his body, sure.  But part of it must be the stress and adrenaline aspect of it. If that's the case, they need to figure out how to reproduce enough of the stress/adrenaline aspects in practice to help Josh keep the proper technique under stress.  I know tricks musicians use and pilots use and I used before public speaking.  I don't know what would work for an athlete.

 

The type of incompletion that's more worrisome to QB productivity, especially early in the game, are throws to open receivers in what should be Allen's "honey spot" - let's call it the 5 to 15 yd range.  Throws in this distance accounted for 8 of Allen's 13 incompletions vs Pats.  I haven't looked, but I think there would be a similar percentage especially early in the Ravens game.  Some of them are simply well-defended and the DB got a hand in, but some of them are thrown wide.  Again, in some cases there may be interference going on.  My guess is this also is a technique issue.  We can win if Josh doesn't hit those deep balls - yes they're nice, yes they'd give us quick points, but being able to move the ball and avoid third downs keeps the other team off the field AND gives you points.

 

I think Daboll was little bit irked with Josh's "jitters" comment.  He was asked "why do you think Josh seems to get jittery?".  Daboll said "eh, I think each game is different, we always try to aim out starting fast, that's our goal"  "Does the opponent play into that?" "You'd have to ask Josh.  You know, he's pretty level-headed.  Each unique game is a little bit different and I think that would be a good question for him"  Daboll kind of had your Dad's "you got yourself into this, Kid, you get yourself out" little smirk when he said that, I thought.  It *may* have been part of what McDermott meant when about 8:28 into his presser he said "there's been a lot of talking before even turning on the film this week".  I think Josh is very vulnerable when he talks to the press after the game, and it would serve him better to stick to "I need to do a better job" and not "feed the wolves" with why/how.

 

Back to Daboll.  I don't think Daboll's play calling against top-notch opponents is helping Josh settle in.  Daboll said it: "we aim to start fast".  I think his play designs call for Josh to take the deep shot on the first few possessions, if it's there.  This is a problem for a couple reasons independent of Josh right now: 1) I think DBs always seem to start out handsy.  Then if they get flagged they back off, if they don't, they keep up with it.  But with Josh's known overthrow problems, I think the refs are less likely to call DPI, deeming it an "uncatchable ball".  So it's lose-lose. 2) we don't have big physical WR who can win those battles and not get jammed up.  I think that's why we're sending Knox - he's a tank, he can truck through them.  But he's not a very sophisticated route runner yet. 

 

I think it would serve Josh better to start the game with a bunch of short pass plays where he could settle in.  What was our play calling vs. NE on the first drive?  Run, run, run (QB sneak), run run deep pass on 3rd and 8.    Looking at the design of that deep pass play, deep to Knox is really Allen's only choice that would move the chains.   He's got Singletary in the flat, and it might have been a good choice to dump off to him and see if he could convert.

 

I've just never been comfortable with Daboll's play calling sequences against tough, pressuring defenses.  He just always seems one step behind.  Our run % on 1st down is one aspect.  "Tells" like bringing in Roberts to block on the designed run near the goal line in the 4th is another.  When Roberts is in, it's usually to block, so that's a "tell".  Also, putting a run for Allen in there where he's going to get physically thumped and then expecting him to function at his peak for the next 3 downs is dumb, IMO.

 

I could have mis-heard but I would SWEAR in Daboll's presser yesterday he said "we don't have time to self-scout"  !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! if so.  Dammit Daboll, if you want to out-smart a DC and call the right plays, YOU MUST SELF SCOUT.  Lack of self-scouting is how Belicheck ate Sean McVay for dinner and how he came back against the Falcons in the 2nd half.  MAKE TIME.  Hire someone to do it, then listen to them.  Hire a former DC and have him pressure test your game plan - tell him down and distance and what your personnel is and have him tell you what he expects.  If he's right, do something else.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[whorlnut]

9 hours ago, Rigotz said:

Since the Bills Week 6 Bye:

21 Touchdowns, 2 Interceptions (and 2 lost fumbles).

 

During that span here are some of the defenses he has played against:

The #1 defense

The #4 defense

The #5 defense

The #9 defense

The #10 defense

The #11 defense

(stats as of week 16)

 

That's pretty incredible ball security for an "inaccurate" guy.

He’s not NEARLY as bad as some people think he is. Bottom line is they need to get over the “wrong Josh” and pre-draft narratives and open their eyes to what this kid is actually accomplishing. It’s nothing short of remarkable. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

7 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

We are at the bottom of the league in targets to RBs.  You want a stat to illustrate why his completion percentage isn't around say 63-65?  Here you go:

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/reports/targets-distribution/rb.php

Oh and as a bonus.....guess what other position we're at the bottom of the league in targeting?  The good ol TE safety net.  Don't have one of those right now either.  Knox will get there - I'm looking at him to be Kittle lite next season.  A top 10 TE.  

 

Good find, Thanks!  I hope Knox evolves.  20% drops is NOT good.  I defended Zay Jones, said he'd improve his 2nd year.  Well, I guess his drops did, but.....

 

7 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

Most teams target them 8-10 plus times a game.  We're targeting them 3 or 4. 

 

So I whipped the data at your link into a spreadsheet and the average is 7.  You are correct, between Gore and Singletary we target them 4.  So 3 less.

 

I'm not sure what's going on.  I think part of it is trust on Josh's part.   Here is what the field looks like just as Josh launches the throw to Knox:

Josh had already decided to throw to the L side when Beasley came that open - an instant earlier he was crouched down making a break, and Im not sure Beasley would get the 1st, he's not fierce in the YAC.
 

The leaping defender is on his way down - Josh drew him to jump with a slick pump fake.  Anyway, Josh could throw to Singletary, he was open.  He's also 6 yds short of the first down.  Singletary 1:1 with one guy to beat in the open field?  I think he'd make it, and it would be a safer choice.

 

I don't think Josh has been instructed not to take the checkdown to the RB, but I think his reads on the play may be deep to shallow.  So if Knox is open, he's supposed to take him (I think)  ? which is, IMO, poor play design especially right now with deep completions hard to get for whatever reason.

 

You're absolutely right that we lack that TE safety net this year and that lack of checkdown throws to TE and RB are a big reason for low completion.

 

7 hours ago, Mango said:

Because it isn't just interpret and count. The other 40% of games not listed are the 21, 25, 32, and 32nd ranked defenses in the league....

It wasn't just a happy coincidence the way it was presented.

 

You said "The Bills have played 10 games since their bye, not 6. You left 4 out. Makes it read like Allen put up 21 TD’s in 6 weeks."   That's an interpret and count point.
 

There are several different valid points to be made, sure - that the other defenses we played were ranked low, how many TDs were against good vs poor defenses etc.

 

[thebandit27]

3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Good find, Thanks!  I hope Knox evolves.  20% drops is NOT good.  I defended Zay Jones, said he'd improve his 2nd year.  Well, I guess his drops did, but.....

 

 

So I whipped the data at your link into a spreadsheet and the average is 7.  You are correct, between Gore and Singletary we target them 4.  So 3 less.

 

I'm not sure what's going on.  I think part of it is trust on Josh's part.   Here is what the field looks like just as Josh launches the throw to Knox:

Josh had already decided to throw to the L side when Beasley came that open - an instant earlier he was crouched down making a break.

The leaping defender is on his way down - Josh fooled him with a neat pump fake, slick move.  Anyway, Josh could throw to Singletary, he was open.  He's also 6 yds short of the first down.  Singletary 1:1 with one guy to beat in the open field?  I think he'd make it, and it would be a safer choice.

 

I don't think Josh has been instructed not to take the checkdown to the RB, but I think his reads on the play may be deep to shallow.  So if Knox is open, he's supposed to take him (I think)  ? which is, IMO, poor play design especially right now with deep completions hard to get for whatever reason.

 

You're absolutely right that we lack that TE safety net this year. 

 

Whoa. Looking at that still shot, I'm left wondering: was Knox running a 7 route there? Looks like it based off the leverage he's gained on the defender. If so, shouldn't he be headed for the back corner? Wondering because that's where the ball ended up.

 

I had assumed it was a bad throw by Josh, and it probably is, but that photo makes me curious...

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Whoa. Looking at that still shot, I'm left wondering: was Knox running a 7 route there? Looks like it based off the leverage he's gained on the defender. If so, shouldn't he be headed for the back corner? Wondering because that's where the ball ended up.

 

I had assumed it was a bad throw by Josh, and it probably is, but that photo makes me curious...

 

As we know, I'm not a route identification guru, but the route Knox runs on this play and the route Knox ran on the successful play appear different to me.

My interpretation is that Knox did not run the route Josh expected him to run.  One of these two things does not belong.  Knox also didn't seem to get a clean release and had to muscle his way through contact with the defender (pretty sure illegal contact) which probably slowed him down.  I believe it's still not a good throw (flat, little arc), but it shouldn't be as far off Knox as it is.

 

Maybe someone with better route identification chops and all-22 (or access to that ESPN moving dotsy thing) will comment.

[thebandit27]

11 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

As we know, I'm not a route identification guru, but the route Knox runs on this play and the route Knox ran on the successful play appear different to me.

My interpretation is that Knox did not run the route Josh expected him to run.  One of these two things does not belong.

 

Maybe someone with better route identification chops and all-22 (or access to that ESPN moving dotsy thing) will comment.

 

The play at the end of the half was a clear 9 with an outside stem.

 

I think this may have been a 7. Doesn't mean it was a perfect throw, but it does explain why it looked so far off if that's the case. Need to watch the play again to see if the throw would've been on target for a 7. Probably need to see the EZ view to know.

 

EDIT: I just re-watched the play. Looks like the defender redirected Knox slightly which changed his leverage. He was indeed headed for the back pylon, but I believe he wouldn't have had a shot at the ball regardless.

Edited December 24, 2019 by thebandit27

[JESSEFEFFER]

10 hours ago, Dr.Sack said:

If Allen completes more than 60% of his passes in a playoff game I’d be impressed. So far the one constant in our losses outside of the Pittsburgh game is when Allen’s completion % is sub 60% we lose. He’s 1-5 on the year his lone victory being over a Duck led anemic Pittsburgh offense.  

 

Imo, his completion % is more the result of "stuff" and less the cause of "stuff."  I think the Bills offense would function well in Houston.  It would almost be a treat for them to play in a climate controlled domed stadium much like it was for them in Dallas.

Edited December 24, 2019 by JESSEFEFFER

[DCOrange]

10 hours ago, Rigotz said:

Since the Bills Week 6 Bye:

21 Touchdowns, 2 Interceptions (and 2 lost fumbles).

 

During that span here are some of the defenses he has played against:

The #1 defense

The #4 defense

The #5 defense

The #9 defense

The #10 defense

The #11 defense

(stats as of week 16)

 

That's pretty incredible ball security for an "inaccurate" guy.

Sounds to me like he's missing his passes by so much that even the DBs can't get to them. /s

 

Really though, he's clearly done a much better job of protecting the ball since the pretty disastrous start to the season. He is still missing a lot of passes that he frankly shouldn't be though. All in all, I can live with it because he's definitely showing progress, but he still isn't where he eventually needs to be and the offense as a whole has remained pretty bad partially as a result of the passes he misses.

[aristocrat]

one thing i'd like to know is the amount of screens we run compared to the rest of the league.  those pad the comp percentage type plays. i don't think we run one in the pats game.  blows my mind cause they killed us with those. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

3 hours ago, westside2 said:

Haters are gonna hate.

[Hebert19]

10 hours ago, BfloBillsFan said:

I’ve liked his progress this season.  Hope he takes more steps and can become a top 10-12 QB

Based on the state of quarterbacking in the league I think he may already be this.  Stats aside how about wins and clutch time. 

[DCOrange]

9 minutes ago, aristocrat said:

one thing i'd like to know is the amount of screens we run compared to the rest of the league.  those pad the comp percentage type plays. i don't think we run one in the pats game.  blows my mind cause they killed us with those. 

 

I can't remember if it was the Cover 1 guy or the YardsPerPlay guy, but one of them was theorizing that with QBs that run like Lamar and Allen for example, it's more difficult to run screens because the edge defenders are generally trying to contain anyways and that naturally puts them in a good position to disrupt the passing lanes on screens. I think it was focused on Baltimore at the time but was basically showing that Baltimore, Buffalo, and (I think) Seattle are like 3 of the bottom 5 teams in terms of how often they throw screens.

[Hebert19]

10 hours ago, BfloBillsFan said:

I’ve liked his progress this season.  Hope he takes more steps and can become a top 10-12 QB

Based on the state of quarterbacking in the league I think he may already be this.  Stats aside how about wins and clutch time. 

 

Ps.  He also has the highest drop percentage in the NFL 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Nice stats / results. 
 

far better that micromanaging percentages. 
 

5 top 10 defenses and they 11th. Because people only concentrate on top 10’s

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

37 minutes ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

 

Imo, his completion % is more the result of "stuff" and less the cause of "stuff."  I think the Bills offense would function well in Houston.  It would almost be a treat for them to play in a climate controlled domed stadium much like it was in Dallas.

 

I think you're absolutely correct.  The Bills losses and Josh's low completion percentage are a correlation, not a causation of the losses.

 

Or to put another way - plays could be being designed for lots of short dump-off throws that would probably be stuffed.  Josh could have a high completion percentage, but the same factors that are making the longer plays problematic for him to complete - poor pass protection, WR drops, uncalled DPI, ? route running, and Yep! bad throws - would still be there.

 

 

[Dopey]

4 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

So you realize this is a forum for discussion, but are unwilling to discuss?  You just want to throw your rants out there and not be challenged at all?

 

Mods?

You're crying to the mods?! Really?!

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

48 minutes ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

 

Imo, his completion % is more the result of "stuff" and less the cause of "stuff."  I think the Bills offense would function well in Houston.  It would almost be a treat for them to play in a climate controlled domed stadium much like it was in Dallas.

A rational man! Welcome

[Dopey]

4 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

So when Darnold throws dumb picks it’s on Gase but when Allen cuts his int’s way down it’s because of Daboll?

 

You’re being silly at this point.

I agree with twistoffate. If you put Josh in the NJ situation or hook him up with Kitchens, he would be a wreck. Darnold in Buffalo's situation would be on par with Josh. Baker has the talent and if he was a Bill, coach would reign him in to the Bills new culture. I think Baker would also be on par with what Josh is doing here.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, oldmanfan said:

It would be interesting to compare the number of few inaccurate passes with the number of dropped passes.

 

So there is an attempt to collect just this data

You can find it on https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/passing_advanced.htm

 

Keep mind that "Bad Throw" is defined as a throw the apparent receiver can not reasonably catch, excluding throw-aways spikes and drops.  It does not take into account whether or not the QB and the WR were "on the same page" about the route and how it was to be run.

 

6 minutes ago, Dopey said:

I agree with twistoffate. If you put Josh in the NJ situation or hook him up with Kitchens, he would be a wreck. Darnold in Buffalo's situation would be on par with Josh. Baker has the talent and if he was a Bill, coach would reign him in to the Bills new culture. I think Baker would also be on par with what Josh is doing here.

 

You can agree all you like, but it remains total speculation.

 

It is rumored that Mayfield was not on the Bills board, so it seems likely the Bills coaches do not agree with you.

[oldmanfan]

 

1 hour ago, Dopey said:

I agree with twistoffate. If you put Josh in the NJ situation or hook him up with Kitchens, he would be a wreck. Darnold in Buffalo's situation would be on par with Josh. Baker has the talent and if he was a Bill, coach would reign him in to the Bills new culture. I think Baker would also be on par with what Josh is doing here.

I disagree.

Edited December 24, 2019 by Hapless Bills Fan
meta discussion

[dakrider]

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

That is indeed the most important stat, 10-5.

 

But it is NOT a quarterback stat.

 

It's a team stat. That stat is officially named "Team Record in Games Started By This Quarterback (Regular Season)".

 

TEAM wins.

 

The way to evaluate Josh Allen is to look at how well he does QB stuff. Not to evaluate him based on how well the defense is playing or whether or not or field goal kicker is making his kicks.

Wins are the only stat that really matters.   There's several losing teams that have QB's with great stats.  

Completion percentage is just a simple stat.  Allen is never going to put up the high comp.%, I thought most on here knew that already? 

Bills also don't run near as many of the screen type passes and the real short throws like some teams do many times a game.  Also, Allen is not prone to throw a 3 yard pass on 3rd and 9 and more often than not goes for the first down.  These 2 things alone account for 4-5 passes every game.  And then you can also put in some dropped balls and plays where the receiver simply cannot beat his man to get the ball.   Allen himself certainly needs to improve his game, especially the beginning of games.  Part of that also imo, is the Bills offense where so many drives, especially at start of games  are runs on 1st and 2nd down and then its 3rd and 4 or 3rd and 8 or something and then the defense can tee off on the pass play.  If the Bills could start off with a more pass / run mix in games instead of "establishing the run".  But Allen also needs to come out more sharp in games too.  
I predict the playoff game (Houston) will be a very tight low scoring game and it will take big plays at key times, not completion %, to win the game. 

 

[billsfan1959]

3 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

Most of the reason Josh's % is low is that he airmails a few inaccurate passes a game. That's not the only factor, of course, but it is the main one.

 

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

They list the Bills as having the 3rd highest total of drops in the league!!!!!!!!!!!!! 22 drops. League average is about 17. That means the Bills have dropped around five more passes than average. If you added in five completions to Josh's stats, his completion percentage would go up to 59.8%, soaring all the way up from 32nd to 31st.

 

A little disingenuous and a bit simplistic. There are a number of variables that go into completion %. The number of dropped passes is one. Even that is not as simple as the number alone. Allen leads the league in percentage of dropped passes at 7.2%.

 

Compared to some of the "top QBs":

Mahomes 5%

Watson     4.6%

Rogers      4.3%

Cousins    3.8%

Winston    3.8%

Jackson    3.6%

Wilson       3.3%

Brees         3.3%

 

Tipped/batted passes, throw aways, spikes and, pressure are some other (not all) factors. Allen happens to be near the top of the league in all of those. Total percentage of plays in which Allen threw the ball away, spiked it, had a pass dropped, or had a pass tipped/ batted is 15.7% (leads the league)

 

Again compared to some of the "top QBs":

Mahomes 10%

Watson     9%

Rogers      10.3%

Cousins    10.1%

Winston    9.3%

Jackson    9.7%

Wilson       9.2%

Brees         7.8%

 

That's an average of 9.4% - or - a 6.3% difference than Allen. Using your argument, if allen had 6.3 % less passes dropped, thrown away, spiked, or tipped/batted his completion % would be 65% or 14th in the NFL. Or using the "league avg" (10.7%) as you did, Allen has 5% more, and 5% less passes dropped, thrown away, spiked, or tipped/batted would leave his his completion % at 64% or 18th in the NFL.

 

Let's add in pressure via blitz just for the heck of it. Allen is also 2nd in the NFL in percentage of pass attempts in which he is blitzed at 43.6% (a number which soared over the last three games). He is also tied, when blitzed, for the smallest amount of time between snap and the throw/when the pocket collapses at 2.3 seconds.

 

Allen has a lot of room for improvement; however, let's not be simplistic in our evaluations by saying his "inaccuracy" is the primary reason for his lower completion %.

Edited December 24, 2019 by billsfan1959

[Bray Wyatt]

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

It might. Here's a quick start. There are several sites that look at drops and they tell somewhat different stories because drops are a somewhat subjective thing.

 

Here's one:  http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/tmleaders.asp?range=NFL&rank=232&type=Receiving

 

They list the Bills as having the 3rd highest total of drops in the league!!!!!!!!!!!!! 22 drops. League average is about 17. That means the Bills have dropped around five more passes than average. If you added in five completions to Josh's stats, his completion percentage would go up to 59.8%, soaring all the way up from 32nd to 31st.

 

We are third in drops, but 27th in attempts, I dont think its that simple to just say add 5 more completions, jmo

7 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

 

A little disingenuous and a bit simplistic. There are a number of variables that go into completion %. The number of dropped passes is one. Even that is not as simple as the number alone. Allen leads the league in percentage of dropped passes at 7.2%.

 

Compared to some of the "top QBs":

Mahomes 5%

Watson     4.6%

Rogers      4.3%

Cousins    3.8%

Winston    3.8%

Jackson    3.6%

Wilson       3.3%

Brees         3.3%

 

Tipped/batted passes, throw aways, spikes and, pressure are some other (not all) factors. Allen happens to be near the top of the league in all of those. Total percentage of plays in which Allen threw the ball away, spiked it, had a pass dropped, or had a pass tipped/ batted is 15.7%

 

Again compared to some of the "top QBs":

Mahomes 10%

Watson     9%

Rogers      10.3%

Cousins    10.1%

Winston    9.3%

Jackson    9.7%

Wilson       9.2%

Brees         7.8%

 

Let's add in pressure via blitz just for the heck of it. Allen is also 2nd in the NFL in percentage of pass attempts in which he is blitzed at 43.6% (a number which soared over the last three games). He is also tied, when blitzed, for the smallest amount of time between snap and the throw/when the pocket collapses at 2.3 seconds.

 

Allen has a lot of room for improvement; however, let's not be simplistic in our evaluations by saying his "inaccuracy" is the primary reason for his lower completion %.

 

And then I see this, lol did way more work than I would have done, nice

[Hapless Bills Fan]

8 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

He needs to fix that, and experience should do so.  Also I wonder if  they should script the first 15 plays.  It worked for Walsh and Montana.

 

I think Daboll may be scripting the first 10 or so plays.   I think that because you see Allen just sitting on the sidelines during those plays not pouring over the Surface.   It's a problem when we go 3-and-out several times in a row.  Unfortunately the scripting is something like run-run-pass (read deep to shallow)   run-run-pass (read deep to shallow)

 

Quote

Part of it is that we are among the leaders in dropped passes.

 

Yeah, there's a bunch of factors.  Part of it is not only leading the league in dropped passes at 7.2%, but having our TE have 20% drops.  A good TE is like an RB, should be very high completion %, 70-80%.  I think it's fair to say that the TE situation did NOT go as planned for the Bills this year.  Kroft was supposed to be "The Guy".  I don't think Knox was supposed to see the field very much.  Singletary is also a novice as a pass catcher - wasn't part of the pre-draft picture that he didn't catch passes in college? 

 

Drops at the league mean would adjust Josh's completion percentage to something like 61- 62%.  Not captured in the drops is the fact that we don't have the guys who make those circus catches on other teams.  I look at some other WR and TE and the word that comes to mind is "covet".  I covet them. 

 

Part of it is on Josh, no doubt.  He flat out misses throws he should just hit - not the deep bombs, but the "honey spot" ones (like that term @Lieutenant Aldo Raine).

 

My thing is that Josh has improved his accuracy significantly where he needed to - in the "bunnies", the 5-15 yd throws.  This is reflected in an overall completion % increase of 6%.  There is clearly a big difference as well in his ability to process what he's seeing, from the beginning of the season to now.  He's slower than he should be, but that's appropriate.  Be slow and get it right, then speed up.

 

So he's a work in progress, but I don't "get" people who are so positive that he won't improve at this point, because he's already improved more than many a pundit thought possible.

 

 

[Dr. Who]

2 hours ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Do you mean the same Barkley that, for a career, has a 59% completion rate, 10 TDs, 19 INTs, and a QB rating of 67?

 

Do you mean the same Barkley that was 9 - 16 (56%) for 127 yds, 0 TDs, 1 INT (in the red zone), and a 54 QB rating in the 1st NE game this year?

 

You need to say no more. This says everything we need to know.

Careful. This is all a veiled personal attack. One must properly indulge the rules of snowflake dialogue. After all, he comes on here to offer unique, objective analysis and being challenged on a claim is only fair if you are challenging claims he disagrees with. 

[HOUSE]

So, we got the right Josh after all

[BringBackFlutie]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I could have mis-heard but I would SWEAR in Daboll's presser yesterday he said "we don't have time to self-scout"  !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! if so.  Dammit Daboll, if you want to out-smart a DC and call the right plays, YOU MUST SELF SCOUT.  Lack of self-scouting is how Belicheck ate Sean McVay for dinner and how he came back against the Falcons in the 2nd half.  MAKE TIME.  Hire someone to do it, then listen to them.  Hire a former DC and have him pressure test your game plan - tell him down and distance and what your personnel is and have him tell you what he expects.  If he's right, do something else.

 

 

I tend to agree with most of your post- especially about the getting in rhythm early piece, and I've thought that as well.  We NEED more short passes to start- and not on obvious passing downs.  Pass to set up the run-type plays.  And I do think we call bombs too early.  Josh is not in rhythm yet.

 

But as for the above quoted portion...oh dear.  Terrifying.

Edited December 24, 2019 by BringBackFlutie

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I think Daboll may be scripting the first 10 or so plays.   I think that because you see Allen just sitting on the sidelines during those plays not pouring over the Surface.   It's a problem when we go 3-and-out several times in a row.  Unfortunately the scripting is something like run-run-pass (read deep to shallow)   run-run-pass (read deep to shallow)

 

 

Yeah, there's a bunch of factors.  Part of it is not only leading the league in dropped passes at 7.2%, but having our TE have 20% drops.  A good TE is like an RB, should be very high completion %, 70-80%.  I think it's fair to say that the TE situation did NOT go as planned for the Bills this year.  Kroft was supposed to be "The Guy".  I don't think Knox was supposed to see the field very much.  Singletary is also a novice as a pass catcher - wasn't part of the pre-draft picture that he didn't catch passes in college? 

 

Drops at the league mean would adjust Josh's completion percentage to something like 61- 62%.  Not captured in the drops is the fact that we don't have the guys who make those circus catches on other teams.  I look at some other WR and TE and the word that comes to mind is "covet".  I covet them. 

 

Part of it is on Josh, no doubt.  He flat out misses throws he should just hit - not the deep bombs, but the "honey spot" ones (like that term @Lieutenant Aldo Raine)

 

 

Yep he misses some, no doubt.  What this thread shows is the chronic misuse of statistical analysis.  Going back to completion percentage (which I though we were way past by now), there are multiple factors involved in pass completions, some of which you’ve highlighted.  If a receiver runs pattern X and the WB thinks he should run pattern Y the QB can throw it right on the money and the ball hits the turf.

[Dr. Who]

58 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

 

I can't remember if it was the Cover 1 guy or the YardsPerPlay guy, but one of them was theorizing that with QBs that run like Lamar and Allen for example, it's more difficult to run screens because the edge defenders are generally trying to contain anyways and that naturally puts them in a good position to disrupt the passing lanes on screens. I think it was focused on Baltimore at the time but was basically showing that Baltimore, Buffalo, and (I think) Seattle are like 3 of the bottom 5 teams in terms of how often they throw screens.

Very interesting point. I've wondered about it and this is a cogent argument.

[Dr. Who]

38 minutes ago, Dopey said:

I agree with twistoffate. If you put Josh in the NJ situation or hook him up with Kitchens, he would be a wreck. Darnold in Buffalo's situation would be on par with Josh. Baker has the talent and if he was a Bill, coach would reign him in to the Bills new culture. I think Baker would also be on par with what Josh is doing here.

Among other things, this view appears to ignore the unique aspects of a person that do not easily quantify as stats. Is Allen's leadership and charisma, the combination of intense competiveness, humility, hard work and affability simply immaterial to what contributes to team culture and winning? Does one simply assume that Mayfield and Darnold, quite different personalities, transition and achieve to the same degree? One can speculatively surmise that they would be effective, even if somewhat differently, but ten Buffalo wins, the first double-digit season victory total this millenium, is a reality, not a speculation. I credit Allen for carrying a still fairly pedestrian offense with an OC who is inconsistent and often puzzling in his playcalling.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 hours ago, TwistofFate said:

Ill tell you the same thing I told the rest of your band of merry men, you don't like what I post, then don't respond to it.  

I don't care to respond to, read, or interact with you in any way shape or form. In fact, if there was an ignore button I'd be using it. 

 

There is an "Ignore" feature. 

 

Details vary per OS, but generally hover over the Username.  A pop-up box will appear with x-Ignore user as a feature.  Select it, and a window will open allowing you to input the Username(s) you wish to ignore, and the board features in which you wish them to be ignored.   Hope this helps.  PM if further assistance is required.

 

If you are unable to find any feature yourself and unable to get an answer in the Customer Service forum, you may PM a mod and request assistance.  It may take a day or two to get a response, because Life.