Week 15: Bills at Steelers on SNF

[Kiva]

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Edited December 10, 2019 by Kiva

[ShakAttack]

What’s up with the blowout predictions!? I would tend to expect a win but man... have you looked at their schedule? They’ve been blown out once... and it was in week 1. They’ve played everyone close including several quality teams. Took Baltimore to OT, lost to Seahawks by 2, etc. 

 

All these steeler blowout predictions and then when I predict we blowout the DOLPHINS hardly anyone takes my side!? Makes NO sense!!! We were unlikely to blowout Miami but the Steelers should be a breeze. Ok!

1 hour ago, Kiva said:

If Vegas is any indication. We are in for a heart break. Game winning FG for the Steelers, lose by 2. 

well, I heard the Bills had the best record in the NFL ATS going into the Ravens game, and we almost covered that too...

 

Still, you could be right. We should probably win, but I expect it to be down to the wire which means anything goes and if we lose I don’t even know how I can be a functional human being in the ensuing week. 

[Tesla03]

if we lose this game we really don't deserve playoffs bc we aren't really a good team

 

no excuses anymore 

8 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

To me this is the kind of game where the Bills should be very conservative on offense.  As others have pointed out the Steeler's are winning games with defensive & ST scoring.  We have to limit the TO's, especially early in the game.  If we want to attack them the 2nd half might be the better time if we're up like 10 - 6. 

 

There is NO way the Steeler's O should move the ball much against our D.  If the Bills O can score 17 - 20 points we win this game and are in the playoffs. 

 

And for the record, I don't think the Steeler's defense is as good as the Raven D is.

 

 

 

Steelers are getting some talent back from injury

[Boatdrinks]

11 minutes ago, Tesla03 said:

if we lose this game we really don't deserve playoffs bc we aren't really a good team

 

no excuses anymore 

 

Steelers are getting some talent back from injury

If the Bills finish the season with 10 wins, they will qualify for the playoffs over other teams that could have 10 wins also. That means they deserve the playoffs. Playoff berths aren’t awarded based on when the wins occurred. Some teams just match up better with certain teams than others. The Texans might win their division , but they lost to the Broncos ( a team the Bills beat). The Steelers defense happens to be a bad matchup for the Bills offense. Now, if the Bills can’t beat the Jets ? Then I’d have to agree that they aren’t very good. They still might qualify for the NFL playoffs due to that pesky NFL tiebreaker system, though. 

[Starr Almighty]

On 12/8/2019 at 7:35 PM, Penfield45 said:

big game for Allen

 

can he step up against a good defense and win the game on primetime? I'm tired of struggling to score 20 points per game with this offense meanwhile the Titans with Henry are putting up 30+ points every week for fun. 

 

 

Fixed it for you

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

9 hours ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

Thanks for the rec’s! 
please send anymore my way. I’ve never been to Newport but love everything California. My wife is from N. Cali and hope one day to move to the west coast. 
Go Bills!

Absolutely man, happy to help. Only other rec I have is Goat Hill Tavern in Costa Mesa (right next to Newport). Awesome dive bar, great music and huge beer selection. 

 

Do the LA sights for a day if you haven't done so already, but otherwise stick to the beaches...much better vibes IMO. Have fun!

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

11 hours ago, bkep32 said:

Pitt blitz just as much an as often as the ravens do.  If they dont scheme the OL to pick it up or the quick pass game to combat that it wont matter if juju or conner are back or not.  

 

11 hours ago, NewEra said:

Next on Josh’s to do list:  figure out how to deal with the blitz

 

Per the Buffalo news, "Baltimore is blitzing an NFL-high 53.4% of pass plays through 13 games...Pittsburgh is blitzing on 36.5% of pass plays this season, according to Pro Football Focus."

 

Also, "In the three-game win streak against Miami, Denver and Dallas, the Bills had showed progress against pressure. Those teams blitzed Allen at a combined 30% rate, and Allen went 17 of 23 for 209 yards with two TDs, no interceptions and a 130.5 rating, according to News charts."

 

Denver and Dallas have elite pass rushers, but we limited them effectively. Baltimore plays Cover-0 and blitzes more than any team in the league and we struggled (the Pats and the Browns also blitz very frequently and efficiently too so that's 3 of our 4 losses right there). As I mentioned earlier in the thread, I believe the Steelers are more similar to Denver/Dallas than the Ravens which should make this an easier match up in theory. Plus they play zone rather than the press man coverage the Ravens rely on.

 

Pittsburgh has a great defense and pass rush, but a lot of people are giving them too much respect on here. Our offense should actually match up pretty well with them and play well as long as we clean up the mistakes from this past week. 

 

https://buffalonews.com/2019/12/09/josh-allen-blitz-rate-baltimore-ravens-completion-percentage-analysis/

[TPS]

11 hours ago, Dont Stop Billeiving said:

Congrats! And have you been to Newport before? Probably my favorite place in California.

 

Apologies if you know all of this already, but Mutt Lynch's is a great beach bar for food/drinks, Stag Bar for late night/pool tables/pizza. Definitely rent some bikes and check out The Wedge!

 

Anyways hopefully the Bills can gift you a stress-free win!

@atlbillsfan1975 I always liked Blackies (very close to ML) which is more of a dive bar, but it's been awhile since I've been. Check out the Crab Cooker for seafood.

[Mat68]

Steelers wont score enough to win.  Allen makes enough plays to have the game in hand by quarter 3.  

[YoloinOhio]

 

[YoloinOhio]

stats for dummies time:

 

Bills played the #1 and #2 ranked offenses in the league the last two weeks and their defense shined. Steelers are the #28 ranked offense. Steelers played the 32nd ranked defense in the league on Sunday (Arizona) and scored one offensive TD. 

 

Bills are the #20 ranked offense and have played the #6 and #9 ranked defenses in the last 2 weeks. Steelers are #5. Next week they will play #1 and the last week of the season they play #7. 

 

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?conference=ALL&offensiveStatisticCategory=GAME_STATS&defensiveStatisticCategory=GAME_STATS&season=2019&seasonType=REG&experience=&tabSeq=2&role=OPP

Edited December 10, 2019 by YoloinOhio

[SydneyBillsFan]

It's Duck Season:

 

 

[Greg S]

38 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Steelers wont score enough to win.  Allen makes enough plays to have the game in hand by quarter 3.  

 

The Bills offense will have trouble scoring as well. I would love to sit back and watch the Bills kick the Steelers ass but that won't happen especially in Pitt. I expect this game to be very close. Hopefully the Bills can get a W.

[YoloinOhio]

2 minutes ago, Greg S said:

 

The Bills offense will have trouble scoring as well. I would love to sit back and watch the Bills kick the Steelers ass but that won't happen especially in Pitt. I expect this game to be very close. Hopefully the Bills can get a W.

I agree, these teams are very similar. They have a little bit better defense, we have a little bit better offense. I anticipate it will come down to who makes their FGs and turns the ball over the least. 

 

And that scares me. 

[Mat68]

Blowout?  No.  I see it going very similar to the Denver game.  20-10 something like that.  

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

36 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

I agree, these teams are very similar. They have a little bit better defense, we have a little bit better offense. I anticipate it will come down to who makes their FGs and turns the ball over the least. 

 

And that scares me. 

I think the only difference between these teams should be and is Allen vs. Hodges. Now I hope it is.

[26TrapDraw]

On 12/8/2019 at 5:16 PM, Dablitzkrieg said:

The Bills need to win 1 more game out of 3 to get in.  I like their chances

So if they win out including against Pat's then what?...

[Chandler#81]

20 hours ago, whatdrought said:

I personally don't get it... this seems like such an easy game for us. Am i completely underrating the Steelers, or do people still not trust josh to do at least as much as he did this past sunday- cause Duck aint scoring 24 points on our Defense... 

HEllO? <knock knock!> McFly! Anybody in there? It’s the freakin’ Steelers IN Pittsburgh! 9 years and running with a winning record. It will be a difficult game for us.

17 hours ago, BobBelcher said:

 

Yes people still do not trust Josh.... against a top tier defense. And until he puts in a good game against one of those defenses, that is going to be the feeling.  Denver was the best defense that he looked good against, and that was fairly recent which is encouraging, but I think the Steelers defense is on a higher level and have much more to play for

Who’s “People”? Yours? It’s the blitz he struggled with -because Baltimore blitzed more than THIRTY FRIGGIN TIMES! Why? Cuz we never came up with an effective strategy to make them stop. Expect more of the same Sunday night.

16 hours ago, Sunshower said:

I’m concerned that this will be another jailbreak every time Allen hikes the ball. They got Watt, Dupree and Hayward, arguably a better pass rush than the Ravens. If we protect Allen, we win. If these guys explode into our backfield we will be humiliated.

Wish I had an answer. Many are quick to blame Dabs, but he/we tried many different things to combat it, whether it was changing to Gore for more punch or TE’s chipping. Nothing seemed to stop their blitz. Gotta figure this out quickly cuz Every team we face now through the playoffs are going to employ it til we beat them for doing so.

[atlbillsfan1975]

1 hour ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

Trending in the right direction. I think another offseason  and a few more players and we are top half league in offense and even more dominant on D. 

[Dablitzkrieg]

39 minutes ago, BeefCurtns said:

So if they win out including against Pat's then what?...

Depends on if the Patriots lose another game.  If they do, the Bills would win the division.

[YoloinOhio]

 

[26TrapDraw]

10 minutes ago, Dablitzkrieg said:

Depends on if the Patriots lose another game.  If they do, the Bills would win the division.

If the bills beat Pat's do they own tie breaker? Afc wins?

[Dablitzkrieg]

Just now, BeefCurtns said:

If the bills beat Pat's do they own tie breaker? Afc wins?

No, NE does due to common games

[Royale with Cheese]

15 years ago in our place, the Steelers ruined our playoff hopes.  Now it's time to do it to them.  
If we beat them, I don't think the Steelers make it because I don't think they'll beat the Ravens in week 17.  I'm don't think 9-7 gets them in.

[Bob Chandler's Hands]

6 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

That Duluth team was outstanding. 

[26TrapDraw]

19 minutes ago, Dablitzkrieg said:

No, NE does due to common games

Yeah just remembered the browns game.

[PaattMaann]

hey @BuffaloSol remember when you wrote this a few backs...

 

BuffaloSol

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  On 11/21/2019 at 9:54 AM, PaattMaann said:

 

 dont know why you are "lol"ing....games in Pitt, vegas hates the bills, I would expect to be the underdog in that game 

I completely disagree that the Bills will be an underdog to the Mason Rudolph led Steelers. That's why I am "lol"ing, not sure why you didn't catch that.

 

 

How did this age? Love the snark of "not sure why you didnt catch that" too...

[Stank_Nasty]

2 minutes ago, PaattMaann said:

hey @BuffaloSol remember when you wrote this a few backs...

 

BuffaloSol

• Rookie
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  On 11/21/2019 at 9:54 AM, PaattMaann said:

 

 dont know why you are "lol"ing....games in Pitt, vegas hates the bills, I would expect to be the underdog in that game 

I completely disagree that the Bills will be an underdog to the Mason Rudolph led Steelers. That's why I am "lol"ing, not sure why you didn't catch that.

 

 

How did this age? Love the snark of "not sure why you didnt catch that" too...

the bills wouldn't have been dogs if rudolph was the qb….. 

Edited December 10, 2019 by Stank_Nasty

[PaattMaann]

8 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

the bills wouldn't have been dogs if rudolph was the qb….. 

 

doesnt matter. If my aunt had nuts shed by my uncle...he was wrong about the line and an asshat while discussing it, so im serving him up his crow 

[Stank_Nasty]

1 minute ago, PaattMaann said:

 

doesnt matter. If my aunt had nuts shed by my uncle...he was wrong about the line and an asshat while discussing it, so im serving him up his crow 

I wasn't part of the discussion but he literally says "Rudolph led steelers"..... how much crow can possibly be served there?

 

a side dish maybe. ?

[RichRiderBills]

11 hours ago, TheProcess said:

We’ve also had really unfortunate winds at home games this year. Worse than I can recall in the past. Seems like most of our home games this year have had difficult winds. Josh has certainly struggled this year with the deep ball, but even a little wind can compound the problem. 

This is true....

 

BTW eveyone wants K gun results when they forget how many short passes we did in that offense.

 

We need to screen better.

Edited December 10, 2019 by RichRiderBills

[PaattMaann]

2 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

I agree, these teams are very similar. They have a little bit better defense, we have a little bit better offense. I anticipate it will come down to who makes their FGs and turns the ball over the least. 

 

And that scares me. 

 

We have a little bit better defense and a better offense. 

[whatdrought]

1 hour ago, Chandler#81 said:

HEllO? <knock knock!> McFly! Anybody in there? It’s the freakin’ Steelers IN Pittsburgh! 9 years and running with a winning record. It will be a difficult game for us.

 

 

I get that. I honestly don't see why this team should scare us. Their defense is good, but calling a defense elite that has been playing who they've played lately is a stretch. Our offense has struggled, but we're not turning the ball over hardly at all and they live and die by turnovers. Our Defense will completely shut down everything they do and our Corners aren't going to get baited into silly PI calls when they know the QB can't get the ball there. Those PI's are some of the bigger parts of their offense. I don't want to sleep on them, I just think that they're by and large not much to worry about. We'll see if I'm wrong or not. 

 

Also, Our team plays better on the road, and our one "primetime" game this year was pretty good. 

2 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

I agree, these teams are very similar. They have a little bit better defense, we have a little bit better offense. I anticipate it will come down to who makes their FGs and turns the ball over the least. 

 

And that scares me. 

 

I disagree about their defense being better. We effectively shut down the two best offenses in the NFL in back to back weeks. They've been feasting on the cardinals, bengals, browns, and other such teams. 

[Big Turk]

I don't see the Bills losing this game unless they do some very egregious things in the turnover department or get really gashed on special teams.  Pittsburgh's offense is pretty bad and our D should be able to do what we did to Denver for the most part.  If we can simply not turn the ball over we should win and win comfortably.

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

2 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

stats for dummies time:

 

Bills played the #1 and #2 ranked offenses in the league the last two weeks and their defense shined. Steelers are the #28 ranked offense. Steelers played the 32nd ranked defense in the league on Sunday (Arizona) and scored one offensive TD. 

 

Bills are the #20 ranked offense and have played the #6 and #9 ranked defenses in the last 2 weeks. Steelers are #5. Next week they will play #1 and the last week of the season they play #7. 

 

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?conference=ALL&offensiveStatisticCategory=GAME_STATS&defensiveStatisticCategory=GAME_STATS&season=2019&seasonType=REG&experience=&tabSeq=2&role=OPP

I wasn't sure where to put this, so I guess this as good as any. Someone mentioned the wind being a huge factor at New Era this season,  I did a little stats for dummies. In Bills home games the QBs (both teams) 359.0ypg/59.1apg for an average of 6.07/att. While in Bills road games, again both QBs, 500.5ypg/72.8apg 6.87/att. A pretty significant drop in effectiveness about 12% for both teams QBs at New Era this season. Interestingly, if you limit it to15 mph winds or greater (the last 4 home games), it plummets to 300.8ypg/53.5apg and 5.62/att and a whopping 16% drop in QB effectiveness.

 

Those are the only 4 games with those conditions(15mph+ winds) all season. Does this mean anything,? Not a huge sample and I'm sure looking at other seasons would help massage the data.  It does make sense to the eye, especially when you consider the QBs on both teams are impacted. And, winds at New Era can be pretty tricky to navigate with a pass.

 

 

I checked Heinz field this season and was surprised to see mimimal wind impact, usually only a few (3-7mph).

[klos63]

4 minutes ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

I wasn't sure where to put this, so I guess this as good as any. Someone mentioned the wind being a huge factor at New Era this season,  I did a little stats for dummies. In Bills home games the QBs (both teams) 359.0ypg/59.1apg for an average of 6.07/att. While in Bills road games, again both QBs, 500.5ypg/72.8apg 6.87/att. A pretty significant drop in effectiveness about 12% for both teams QBs at New Era this season. Interestingly, if you limit it to15 mph winds or greater (the last 4 home games), it plummets to 300.8ypg/53.5apg and 5.62/att and a whopping 16% drop in QB effectiveness.

 

Those are the only 4 games with those conditions(15mph+ winds) all season. Does this mean anything,? Not a huge sample and I'm sure looking at other seasons would help massage the data.  It does make sense to the eye, especially when you consider the QBs on both teams are impacted. And, winds at New Era can be pretty tricky to navigate with a pass.

 

 

I checked Heinz field this season and was surprised to see mimimal wind impact, usually only a few (3-7mph).

so much for home field advantage. We've lost 3 home games this season which is pretty lousy.

[Victory Formation]

14 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

I don't see the Bills losing this game unless they do some very egregious things in the turnover department or get really gashed on special teams.  Pittsburgh's offense is pretty bad and our D should be able to do what we did to Denver for the most part.  If we can simply not turn the ball over we should win and win comfortably.

I’d also say that forcing Pittsburgh into 3rd & long situations is paramount. Hodges is more of a check down kind of QB, see what happens when you force him to air it out. I think our secondary matches up marvelously in those types of situations. Keep n extra man in the box, eliminate the run and check downs, build up a lead and then blitz them into oblivion.

[whatdrought]

17 minutes ago, Sunshower said:

I’d also say that forcing Pittsburgh into 3rd & long situations is paramount. Hodges is more of a check down kind of QB, see what happens when you force him to air it out. I think our secondary matches up marvelously in those types of situations. Keep n extra man in the box, eliminate the run and check downs, build up a lead and then blitz them into oblivion.

 

we seem to be damn good at forcing 3rd and 7+

[Like A Mofo]

Just to clarify, if the Bills win Sunday they clinch a WC spot AND guarantee themselves to be no lower then a 5 seed, is this correct?

 

 

[Boatdrinks]

13 minutes ago, Like A Mofo said:

Just to clarify, if the Bills win Sunday they clinch a WC spot AND guarantee themselves to be no lower then a 5 seed, is this correct?

 

 

Yes