Some mid-season thoughts re Allen and the team

[jahnyc]

Some thoughts below.

 

1.  It is comforting to see Allen showing improvement in his ability to throw the short passes.  He is clearly a work in progress, and he will need to show that he can connect on the long throws like he did last year, but he does seem to be showing that he can get better.  Overall, Allen is a great fit for McD, the team and Buffalo in terms of his work ethic, demeanor and personality, but he will need to continue to improve and show that he can have success throwing the ball when the Bills need it (i.e., when they get behind in games or in a high scoring battle).

 

2.  Our recent first round picks (Allen, Edmunds and Oliver) were boom or bust types to a degree when drafted, and they all seem to be a work in progress.  I really don't know whether Edmunds is playing well or not.  Does he have the instincts to be the long-term answer at MLB?  Does he move over to OLB if Lorenzo Alexander retires after this season?  Way too early to make judgments about Oliver, but I would like to see more, even in his first year.

 

3.  While I am not sure that our recent first round picks are fully meeting expectations at this point, particularly given the draft capital used to move up for Allen and Edmunds, I have been impressed with some of the later round picks, including Knox, Sweeney, Darryl Johnson, Siran Neal, Singletary and Taron Johnson.  I am confident in the ability of our front office to identify talent, as noted below.

 

4.  It has been years since I have felt this way (since Levy, Polian and Butler), but I am really comfortable with McD as our head coach, Beane as our GM and the quality people we have in our front office.  I hope they are here for the long-term, because I believe over time they will build a very strong program (and have already put into place some building blocks).  This team, at least at this point, lacks the circus atmosphere and in-fighting that we seem to be seeing with so many other teams.

 

5.  I did not understand all of the free agent signings this past off-season for the o-line by the front office.  I understand now with the various injuries, and it is a nice change that the Bills have some depth at the position given where other teams are struggling with injuries to their o-line (as the Bills have in past seasons)  Not sure if all the new players are starting caliber, but, at a minimum, they do seem to be quality depth.

 

6.  Teams will continue to run the ball on us until we show that we can stop it.  I would expect this from the Browns tomorrow, and we have the Ravens and Steelers upcoming on our schedule.

 

7.  Next year will be a critical year.  We will have significant cap space, in part because our young players  (i.e., White, Allen, etc.) will still be playing on their rookie contracts.  We will go into next season with fewer needs than this past off season, but you can make the argument that the defense will need some significant upgrades at d-line and linebacker.  A pass rushing end and a run stopping DT should be high on the list.  A number one WR is on the list for the offense. If Brady retires or moves to another team, even better for next season.

 

8. I don't care that we have had an easy schedule.  We are 6-2, and I am enjoying this season.  We have had to deal with the Pats and Brady for so many years (playing them twice), so there is no reason to apologize for a soft schedule, particularly since the AFC is weak overall this season, and other teams are benefitting from this as well.

 

 

 

 

[loveorhatembillsfan4life]

Some really well thought out points. I’m really with you on number 4. There are a lot of organizations out there that are just a mess. It’s great to see we have a plan in place with some structure And continuity. . While not perfect I think Sean and Brandon continue to learn from their mistakes. Sean is held in pretty high regard around the league and I hope he’s with us for a long time. I also like knowing we have a young gm who is not afraid to pull off a trade if they think it’s in the best interest of the team. 

[quinnearlysghost88]

Re: 8

Every year some teams get to play a baby soft schedule. That's never us. I'm enjoying it. The Pats have enjoyed almost 20 years of 4 to 6 free AFCE wins on their way to playoffs and Super Bowls. No one says a word. 

[BuffaloMatt]

Point 8 is the Gospel. No one ever apologized about notching a W when the beat the Bills.  

3 minutes ago, quinnearlysghost88 said:

Re: 8

Every year some teams get to play a baby soft schedule. That's never us. I'm enjoying it. The Pats have enjoyed almost 20 years of 4 to 6 free AFCE wins on their way to playoffs and Super Bowls. No one says a word. 

Great minds

Edited November 9, 2019 by BuffaloMatt

[US Egg]

Never thought Bills be 6-2 at the halfway point regardless of Allen’s play.

[CaptnCoke11]

The culture is setting in with this organization.  We just need a few more pieces.  

[TroutDog]

42 minutes ago, jahnyc said:

and he will need to show that he can connect on the long throws like he did last year

Josh had exactly FIVE passes above 40 yards last year. There is very little shift in that regard, contrary to the narrative here. 
 

I do like your list and appreciate the time invested...particularly the last!

[billsfan_34]

Guess what- things got better when Russ “fox guarding the henhouse” Brandon was shown the door. Everything is beginning to fall into place but were not there yet. We are 1-2 years out imo. 
 

What is needed- a run stuffing MLB- Edmunds is an OLB all day long. A smash it in between the tackles RB in the mold of Derrick Henry. A get after it elite DE and to round it off an Eric Moulds type receiver. If we can add those pieces and retain the boys we want then our run will start.

Edited November 9, 2019 by billsfan_34

[billsfan_34]

33 minutes ago, I am the egg man said:

Never thought Bills be 6-2 at the halfway point regardless of Allen’s play.

6-2 with some tough games upcoming. For this team to make the playoffs 4 quarters of football has to be put together.

[machine gun kelly]

Janhyc-  well written thoughts.  The part about us continuing to get run up the middle is spot on.  Everyone has seen in the league where the Bills are suspect on defense.  It’s very difficult to pass on us and we normally can stop the runs out to the sides.  I trust McD and Frasier as they probably have been working non-stop at making changes.  The teams you mentioned doesn’t even come close to wha.t Wlliot’s going to do us on Thanksgiving.

[nedboy7]

I think the one thing that stands out about how the draft picks are playing is That moving up in the draft is not smart yet we keep doing it.  That’s my main criticism of Bean. 
 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

...disagree with "boom or bust" label......what 1st rounder comes with a warranty or "money back guarantee"?....that label woefully under estimates the transition form collegiate ranks to NFL....1,696 are "privileged" annually out of how many?.....

 

2.  Our recent first round picks (Allen, Edmunds and Oliver) were boom or bust types to a degree when drafted, and they all seem to be a work in progress.  I really don't know whether Edmunds is playing well or not.  Does he have the instincts to be the long-term answer at MLB?  Does he move over to OLB if Lorenzo Alexander retires after this season?  Way too early to make judgments about Oliver, but I would like to see more, even in his first year.

 

...I certainly agree on the Allen progress....1st round rooks get a VERY short porch in "TBD Land" and they know best (COUGH)......why would the kid continually work closely with Palmer ON HIS TIME if he didn't feel he needs major improvement?......wouldn't a smug diva (no need to mention names) say, "I'm good enough"?......in deference to NOT derailing the thread. I''ll leave the "Daboll Debate" for another time elsewhere regarding regarding proper utilization of players, game planning to play to personnel strengths.....

 

1.  It is comforting to see Allen showing improvement in his ability to throw the short passes.  He is clearly a work in progress, and he will need to show that he can connect on the long throws like he did last year, but he does seem to be showing that he can get better.  Overall, Allen is a great fit for McD, the team and Buffalo in terms of his work ethic, demeanor and personality, but he will need to continue to improve and show that he can have success throwing the ball when the Bills need it (i.e., when they get behind in games or in a high scoring battle).

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

22 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

...disagree with "boom or bust" label......what 1st rounder comes with a warranty or "money back guarantee"?....that label woefully under estimates the transition form collegiate ranks to NFL....1,696 are "privileged" annually out of how many?.....

 

2.  Our recent first round picks (Allen, Edmunds and Oliver) were boom or bust types to a degree when drafted, and they all seem to be a work in progress.  I really don't know whether Edmunds is playing well or not.  Does he have the instincts to be the long-term answer at MLB?  Does he move over to OLB if Lorenzo Alexander retires after this season?  Way too early to make judgments about Oliver, but I would like to see more, even in his first year.

 

...I certainly agree on the Allen progress....1st round rooks get a VERY short porch in "TBD Land" and they know best (COUGH)......why would the kid continually work closely with Palmer ON HIS TIME if he didn't feel he needs major improvement?......wouldn't a smug diva (no need to mention names) say, "I'm good enough"?......in deference to NOT derailing the thread. I''ll leave the "Daboll Debate" for another time elsewhere regarding regarding proper utilization of players, game planning to play to personnel strengths.....

 

1.  It is comforting to see Allen showing improvement in his ability to throw the short passes.  He is clearly a work in progress, and he will need to show that he can connect on the long throws like he did last year, but he does seem to be showing that he can get better.  Overall, Allen is a great fit for McD, the team and Buffalo in terms of his work ethic, demeanor and personality, but he will need to continue to improve and show that he can have success throwing the ball when the Bills need it (i.e., when they get behind in games or in a high scoring battle).

 

FWIW I think the "boom or bust" label is that Beane's first round picks, including Allen, Edmunds, and Oliver,  were evaluated pre-draft as having exceptionally high ceilings due to athleticism, but had known gaps in their game to date which made them riskier than some other choices.  I think it's a fair label, and the jury is still out on all 3.  All have shown promise, and all have shown gaps in their game that they seem to be working hard to fill.

 

Beane wants to build a "great" team, and starting from a 9-7 record the first year, he had to take some risks.  If they don't work, he'll figure out something else.

 

 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

FWIW I think the "boom or bust" label is that Beane's first round picks, including Allen, Edmunds, and Oliver,  were evaluated pre-draft as having exceptionally high ceilings due to athleticism, but had known gaps in their game to date which made them riskier than some other choices.  I think it's a fair label, and the jury is still out on all 3.  All have shown promise, and all have shown gaps in their game that they seem to be working hard to fill.

 

Beane wants to build a "great" team, and starting from a 9-7 record the first year, he had to take some risks.  If they don't work, he'll figure out something else.

 

 

 

...so then if I understand you correctly bud, noting jury is "still out", we are nowhere near the definitive assigning of A LABEL just yet, correct?...if "evaluations pre-draft as having exceptionally high ceilings due to athleticism" came with a warranty or money back guarantee, "bust" nomenclature NEVER exists...will always be a paralysis by analysis crap shoot IMO....

[Rocket94]

2 hours ago, quinnearlysghost88 said:

Re: 8

Every year some teams get to play a baby soft schedule. That's never us. I'm enjoying it. The Pats have enjoyed almost 20 years of 4 to 6 free AFCE wins on their way to playoffs and Super Bowls. No one says a word. 

The Ravens really exposed the Pats. I am not as worried about them as I used to be. The Pats are just ripe for an early exit from the playoffs.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

7 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...so then if I understand you correctly bud, noting jury is "still out", we are nowhere near the definitive assigning of A LABEL just yet, correct?...if "evaluations pre-draft as having exceptionally high ceilings due to athleticism" came with a warranty or money back guarantee, "bust" nomenclature NEVER exists...will always be a paralysis by analysis crap shoot IMO....

 

I'm struggling to parse this. 

 

Are you asserting that I claim "bust" doesn't exist? 

 

Or are you agreeing that with 1st or 2nd year players who were drafted as known projects with high ceiling, halfway through their 1st or 2nd season is too early to apply it?

[Boatdrinks]

15 minutes ago, Rocket94 said:

The Ravens really exposed the Pats. I am not as worried about them as I used to be. The Pats are just ripe for an early exit from the playoffs.

I’d love to see the early exit , as it would make for a much more enjoyable NFL playoff experience. The Ravens May have exposed the Pats , but I’m not sure many teams can take advantage of it. 

[Rocket94]

Just now, Boatdrinks said:

I’d love to see the early exit , as it would make for a much more enjoyable NFL playoff experience. The Ravens May have exposed the Pats , but I’m not sure many teams can take advantage of it. 

Yeah...your right. I thought about that. The Bills exposed them too, but if the Pats catch some team playing inspired football...I don't know, I just have a feeling.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'm struggling to parse this. 

 

Are you asserting that I claim "bust" doesn't exist? 

 

Or are you agreeing that with 1st or 2nd year players who were drafted as known projects with high ceiling, halfway through their 1st or 2nd season is too early to apply it?

 

...we agree 138% on this.......the acclimation process depends on the individual versus where they were drafted.......coaching and surrounding personnel are also significant factors IMO....sadly, you and I are well as others know the label BUST exists.....as I have previously said, invent the "Head 'N Heart Meter" and you'll be a billionaire overnight....what is in a draftee's head and heart?.....cash and coast?......love for the game wanting to be the best ever at his position?.....who knows.....clubs (I think) do their best effort with due diligence only to be rewarded for their efforts or to be woefully disappointed...nature of the beast......

[Pokebball]

32 minutes ago, Rocket94 said:

The Ravens really exposed the Pats. I am not as worried about them as I used to be. The Pats are just ripe for an early exit from the playoffs.

While I don't disagree, I will never bet against NE in the playoffs.

[Rocket94]

17 minutes ago, Pokebball said:

While I don't disagree, I will never bet against NE in the playoffs.

While I am not a betting man, I can understand your caution! I can afford to just sit here and make  predictions! ha! or is it just a feeling that I have. Maybe just wishful thinking! lol!

Edited November 9, 2019 by Rocket94

[In Summary]

1 hour ago, nedboy7 said:

I think the one thing that stands out about how the draft picks are playing is That moving up in the draft is not smart yet we keep doing it.  That’s my main criticism of Bean. 
 

Yes. Falling in love with players and trading up hasn't yielded better results than letting the draft fall to us naturally IMO. QB is the only position that justifies bundling picks.

[Rocket94]

5 minutes ago, In Summary said:

Yes. Falling in love with players and trading up hasn't yielded better results than letting the draft fall to us naturally IMO. QB is the only position that justifies bundling picks.

Or if a team is certain it is a player or two away...there is a Bruce Smith sitting there.

[YattaOkasan]

Not sure we need to invest much in run stuffing DT. It seems more a need this year than in the long term.  We may already have one with Harrison.  And they should be able to find another big body later in the draft. Also resign Phillips. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

3 hours ago, I am the egg man said:

Never thought Bills be 6-2 at the halfway point regardless of Allen’s play.

yee of little faith 

I did.   

 

but since you are an unfinished chicken ? I can see why  ?

 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

FWIW I think the "boom or bust" label is that Beane's first round picks, including Allen, Edmunds, and Oliver,  were evaluated pre-draft as having exceptionally high ceilings due to athleticism, but had known gaps in their game to date which made them riskier than some other choices.  I think it's a fair label, and the jury is still out on all 3.  All have shown promise, and all have shown gaps in their game that they seem to be working hard to fill.

 

Beane wants to build a "great" team, and starting from a 9-7 record the first year, he had to take some risks.  If they don't work, he'll figure out something else.

 

 

 

...DEAD on IMO.........he is a forward thinker, something sorely lacking since the Polian era..........

[RiotAct]

I’m pretty happy with how Edmunds and Allen are progressing so far this season.  As far as Oliver, I think he’ll start to make more of an impact as the season winds down.

[Punching Bag]

1 hour ago, Pokebball said:

While I don't disagree, I will never bet against NE in the playoffs.

 

It is never a good idea to bet in a crooked casino.

1 hour ago, Rocket94 said:

Or if a team is certain it is a player or two away...there is a Bruce Smith sitting there.

Even Bruce was not Bruce first year.

[Rocket94]

4 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

 

It is never a good idea to bet in a crooked casino.

Even Bruce was not Bruce first year.

You are right. In the early days, Bruce was still learning. Van Miller referred to him as the snow plow in short yardage situations as a goal Line fb!

[LSHMEAB]

4 hours ago, quinnearlysghost88 said:

Re: 8

Every year some teams get to play a baby soft schedule. That's never us. I'm enjoying it. The Pats have enjoyed almost 20 years of 4 to 6 free AFCE wins on their way to playoffs and Super Bowls. No one says a word. 

Word. Kind of like the point differential in 2017 and needing a miracle in Baltimore to get in. I feel zero shame seeing a few breaks go the Bills way. Been a whiiiiiiiiiilllllllle.

 

One of the reasons I'm pro McD is that I have not seen those gutwrenching, "Billsy" losses during his tenure. 

Edited November 9, 2019 by LSHMEAB

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

4 hours ago, TroutDog said:

Josh had exactly FIVE passes above 40 yards last year. There is very little shift in that regard, contrary to the narrative here. 
 

I do like your list and appreciate the time invested...particularly the last!

 

Do you mean he connected on 5 or only threw 5?

[TroutDog]

2 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

Do you mean he connected on 5 or only threw 5?

Sorry, he connected on five passes more than 40 yards. 

[Conlan58]

One thing I truly admire about this regime is the way they are constantly trying to improve, and no one is mistaken for thinking what they have is as good as it is going to get. Previous regimes seemed all too content to keep the roster the same from week 1 to week 17 - McBeane is not afraid to go after players they think can improve this team in any way - whether through a trade (Benjamin) or a street free agent (Liuget). Weaknesses are recognized, and attempts are made to improve. That is huge for me.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

2 hours ago, RiotAct said:

I’m pretty happy with how Edmunds and Allen are progressing so far this season.  As far as Oliver, I think he’ll start to make more of an impact as the season winds down.

 

 

 

good call.... youngsters need time and develop at differing times......some sooner...some later....some never...........

[3rdand12]

4 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'm struggling to parse this. 

 

Are you asserting that I claim "bust" doesn't exist? 

 

Or are you agreeing that with 1st or 2nd year players who were drafted as known projects with high ceiling, halfway through their 1st or 2nd season is too early to apply it?

Projects need more patience.
  Calling them busts is unfair in the 1st year, and even the second if they are improving.

Not all fans feel this way based upon where they were drafted.

The Coaches will know when their pick did not work out. That is part of the faith I have in McBeanes.
where Mr Brandon and or Whaley might have hung on too long, or pushed an agenda.
 Bust < project.

How much time does one allow to make a decision fro Allen (who has already been getting called out ) Oliver and Edmunds as well.

 all 1st round" projects"

 

[nedboy7]

3 hours ago, 3rdand12 said:

Projects need more patience.
  Calling them busts is unfair in the 1st year, and even the second if they are improving.

Not all fans feel this way based upon where they were drafted.

The Coaches will know when their pick did not work out. That is part of the faith I have in McBeanes.
where Mr Brandon and or Whaley might have hung on too long, or pushed an agenda.
 Bust < project.

How much time does one allow to make a decision fro Allen (who has already been getting called out ) Oliver and Edmunds as well.

 all 1st round" projects"

 

 

I agree with you but.......We moved up for both in the draft.  So that kinda puts the pressure on to be a great player to be worth giving up draft picks. 

 

Edited November 10, 2019 by nedboy7

[3rdand12]

15 hours ago, nedboy7 said:

 

I agree with you but.......We moved up for both in the draft.  So that kinda puts the pressure on to be a great player to be worth giving up draft picks. 

 

It does create that pressure for the player.

 That's okay, they should expect it

 But when some of us < me included btch about a player not living up to his draft status, it really falls on the GM and Coaches to make the solid pick and get the most from that player.

[Tcali]

".   and he will need to show that he can connect on the long throws like he did last year,).""---he didnt show squat in that dept last yr

 

other than that good post

[Socal-805]

 

 

Josh Allen sucks.

 

[LSHMEAB]

Allen wasn't awful; he's usually not. But he's really not progressing at an ideal rate. 

 

The play that immediately jumps out for me was the decision to airmail it on 3rd and 3 in the third QTR near midfield when he had ALL DAY to throw. Just really awful decision making there.

 

I think it's perfectly fair to say there are some serious questions as to whether or not he'll get there. Getting into the territory where it's put up or this is "who he is."

Edited November 10, 2019 by LSHMEAB