Next Gen Stats says Bills' pass blocking is NFL's second-best

[HOUSE]

The Bills offensive line is better than some suggest, according to ESPN’s Next Gen Stats.

Stacking up the “pass blocking win rate” for every team, the Bills clock in at a 65.3 percent success rate. That number only barely trails the best team in the NFL, the Cowboys, who are at 65.6 percent.

 

https://billswire.usatoday.com/2019/10/04/next-gen-stats-says-bills-pass-blocking-is-nfls-second-best/

[Mango]

But Josh is running for his life...??‍♂️

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

I think the interior line is masking how poor the tackles are.

[Logic]

The offensive line has been pass blocking sufficiently well most of the time for the offense to have success. It is often made to look a lot worse than it is by Josh Allen, who either holds onto the ball too long or "sees ghosts" (as he did constantly against New England) and rolls out when he doesn't need to or runs himself right into a sack.

They're not perfect, to be sure, but they're good enough. The Bills are 9th in the NFL in offensive yardage gained, even WITH Allen's shortcomings thus far.

[Mrbojanglezs]

Ford has been bad at RT

[Alphadawg7]

Eyeball test says otherwise.

[wiskibreth]

I think people have unrealistic expectations when it comes to Offensive line performance, especially in Pass Protection.  We can't expect any O-line to be some kind of shut-out umbrella that can protect a QB indefinitely.  They simply cannot.  Defensive fronts have become way to quick and stunting schemes have become way to sophisticated to expect an O-line to lock out a defensive pass rush.  Defenders will get there.

 

It's also a function of receivers getting separation and QB's anticipating and having a quick triggers.

 

Not very many teams out there have outstanding Offensive Lines.  Every one of them has holes.

 

Also, outside of Dante Scarnecchia, there's really a sad shortage of great coaching out there at both the pro and college ranks.

[SCBills]

I think the interior of our line is fantastic.  Spain-Morse-Feliciano. 

 

Dawkins is average at LT, which is worth a pretty penny in today’s NFL.  

 

RT is really our only issue.  

 

That equates to a pretty good OL.  

[Chandler#81]

30 minutes ago, HOUSE said:

The Bills offensive line is better than some suggest, according to ESPN’s Next Gen Stats.

Stacking up the “pass blocking win rate” for every team, the Bills clock in at a 65.3 percent success rate. That number only barely trails the best team in the NFL, the Cowboys, who are at 65.6 percent.

 

https://billswire.usatoday.com/2019/10/04/next-gen-stats-says-bills-pass-blocking-is-nfls-second-best/

This is complete BS. No ‘so called sports agency’ knows the Bills better than TSW posters. I know. I’ve asked them. Our OL is complete trash. We haven’t upgraded any position, the rookie sucks and the FAs are overrated and injury prone.

 

Take this made up garbage and GTHO here!

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 minute ago, Chandler#81 said:

This is complete BS. No ‘so called sports agency’ knows the Bills better than TSW posters. I know. I’ve asked them. Our OL is complete trash. We haven’t upgraded any position, the rookie sucks and the FAs are overrated and injury prone.

 

Take this made up garbage and GTHO here!

 

I don't think I've ever seen anyone say anything like that.

 

Well, other than that the rookie sucks, which he kinda does at RT.

 

[26TrapDraw]

1 minute ago, Chandler#81 said:

This is complete BS. No ‘so called sports agency’ knows the Bills better than TSW posters. I know. I’ve asked them. Our OL is complete trash. We haven’t upgraded any position, the rookie sucks and the FAs are overrated and injury prone.

 

Take this made up garbage and GTHO here!

It has to be the best Josh holds the ball for 45 minutes every pass.

[Shaw66]

I think that's nonsense.   It shows how ridiculous these fake stats are.  I've watched a lot of pro football this season, and I've been at three of the first four Bills games, and I will tell you that Josh Allen is NOT getting the protection a lot of other QBs are getting.   

[NoSaint]

32 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Eyeball test says otherwise.

 

How many of the other 31 have you watched?

 

i wouldn’t say second best but probably think they rank higher than most here would consider. As most lines aren’t that good.

18 minutes ago, SCBills said:

I think the interior of our line is fantastic.  Spain-Morse-Feliciano. 

 

Dawkins is average at LT, which is worth a pretty penny in today’s NFL.  

 

RT is really our only issue.  

 

That equates to a pretty good OL.  

Generally speaking, yup. 

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

Just now, NoSaint said:

 

How many of the other 31 have you watched?

 

i wouldn’t say second best but probably think they rank higher than most here would consider. As most lines aren’t that good.

 

I am a football junkie...so I watch more than you might think...but obviously not watching all 31 other teams as close as Bills.

 

But I don't need to watch the other teams to know if the Bills line is playing well or not.  There is not a chance in hell I would rank the Bills OL pass blocking as second best and narrowly behind #1 Dallas.  

 

Right side of the line has been a mess, and I would heavily argue our run blocking has been superior to our pass blocking by a decent margin.  

[BuffAlone]

15 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I am a football junkie...so I watch more than you might think...but obviously not watching all 31 other teams as close as Bills.

 

But I don't need to watch the other teams to know if the Bills line is playing well or not.  There is not a chance in hell I would rank the Bills OL pass blocking as second best and narrowly behind #1 Dallas.  

 

Right side of the line has been a mess, and I would heavily argue our run blocking has been superior to our pass blocking by a decent margin.  

well said. and that is the exact reason to follow the process imo. meaning, run the ball. give Josh quick outs early. and take your strikes downfield. this is how to maximize this year's roster . and to build Josh's confidence. jmo

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

I’ve thought our oline has done a nice job all year. Glad that the data supports me.

 

in light of all the criticism on here, I figured I was alone and was just thinking they were good because they are relatively better than the last few years. 

[HOUSE]

I think the Bills got screwed, should be #1

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

? test.  Bills 3-1 (hopefully 4-1) and they stymied the Pats ** offense.   

 

Someone is doing something right. 

 

Imagine eliminating the mistakes!!!!!!

 

59 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Eyeball test says otherwise.

To the good or bad? 

 

[Big Turk]

A large part of the problem are deep drops and Allen holding the ball too long.

[Alphadawg7]

1 minute ago, JR in Pittsburgh said:

I’ve thought our oline has done a nice job all year. Glad that the data supports me.

 

in light of all the criticism on here, I figured I was alone and was just thinking they were good because they are relatively better than the last few years. 

 

They are certainly better than the last few years...by a good margin.  So you are definitely right about that.  

 

#2 though?  The article claims second only to Dallas.  IMO, not a chance, not the way the right side has been a mess.  

[Buffalo Boy]

Did they watch the Pats game????

[Alphadawg7]

1 minute ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

? test.  Bills 3-1 (hopefully 4-1) and they stymied the Pats ** offense.   

 

Someone is doing something right. 

 

Imagine eliminating the mistakes!!!!!!

 

To the good or bad? 

 

 

Im not saying the OL is bad, its a lot better than we had.  I am saying they have not been at the level of 2nd best pass blocking in the league narrowly behind Dallas.  The right side of the line has been wildly inconsistent and a mess at times.  

 

Again, by no means am I claiming they are terrible at pass protection, but just watching the games there is no way they are the 2nd best unit in football so far at it.  

[Robert James]

40 minutes ago, BeefCurtns said:

It has to be the best Josh holds the ball for 45 minutes every pass.

 

True, but you also have to consider what the O-line is facing.  The Patriots understood Josh Allen's weakness and tendencies, and so they brought some heavy blitzing.  A quarterback proficient at making quick reads would have been able to exploit this.

 

[US Egg]

I bought NexGen night vision goggles. They sucked.

 

Oh ! It's Next Gen Stats.....nevermind.

Edited October 4, 2019 by I am the egg man

[SCBills]

4 minutes ago, Buffalo Boy said:

Did they watch the Pats game????

 

The Offense’s woes in that game were 90% on Allen.  

 

I say that as someone who is still very high on Josh.   His next step, beyond decision making, is making teams pay for blitzing by being ok taking what the defense gives us. 

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

14 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

They are certainly better than the last few years...by a good margin.  So you are definitely right about that.  

 

#2 though?  The article claims second only to Dallas.  IMO, not a chance, not the way the right side has been a mess.  

 

I agree— seems high. But some would argue that JA holds the ball too long. I would like to see the QB stats on release time. 

 

Edit: I found the QB release time stats. JA is 2.9 seconds, which is on the higher side but not abnormally high. For example, Dak is the same. So don’t think that explains anything.

 

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing

 

 

Edited October 4, 2019 by JR in Pittsburgh

[NoSaint]

16 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

They are certainly better than the last few years...by a good margin.  So you are definitely right about that.  

 

#2 though?  The article claims second only to Dallas.  IMO, not a chance, not the way the right side has been a mess.  

 

1-32 where do you put them and how many lines don’t have at least 1 bad player?

 

are we quibbling over 2 vs 7-10 or more like 2 vs 27 in your opinion?

Edited October 4, 2019 by NoSaint

[Alphadawg7]

8 minutes ago, JR in Pittsburgh said:

 

I agree— seems high. But some would argue that JA holds the ball too long. I would like to see the QB stats on release time. 

 

Edit: I found the QB release time stats. JA is 2.9 seconds, which is on the higher side but not abnormally high. For example, Dak is the same. So don’t think that explains anything.

 

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing

 

 

 

To be honest, I thought it was going to be higher than that given the amount of times Allen is dodging and weaving with his legs back there too.  So that was actually pretty solid considering how much he uses his legs.  

[billsfan89]

4 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

The Offense’s woes in that game were 90% on Allen.  

 

I say that as someone who is still very high on Josh.   His next step, beyond decision making, is making teams pay for blitzing by being ok taking what the defense gives us. 

 

Josh is going to have to walk that delicate balance between taking what a defense gives you and being too conservative. I am still high on Josh but this board is so bipolar that one bad game and sudden Josh is trash. When in reality Josh is a young QB with good skills and bad habits. He isn't a finished product and is going to need some time to work on his decision making abilities. You can't go from a franchise QB to a bum in just a week. 

[Alphadawg7]

6 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

 

1-32 where do you put them and how many lines don’t have at least 1 bad player?

 

are we quibbling over 2 vs 7-10 or more like 2 vs 27 in your opinion?

 

Again, I am not saying they are bottom of the league.  Said they are much better than what we have had.  But they are also not worthy of a top tier ranking IMO.  

 

For instance, think of the top 3 QB's in the league...then look at the guys ranked say 9th or so.  There is a big difference even though the ranks are not that far apart.  Ranking us as #2 best pass protection would tell me its a major strength and near elite if being ranked so close to someone like Dallas.  I do not believe our pass protection has been elite.  

[NoSaint]

2 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Again, I am not saying they are bottom of the league.  Said they are much better than what we have had.  But they are also not worthy of a top tier ranking IMO.  

 

For instance, think of the top 3 QB's in the league...then look at the guys ranked say 9th or so.  There is a big difference even though the ranks are not that far apart.  Ranking us as #2 best pass protection would tell me its a major strength and near elite if being ranked so close to someone like Dallas.  I do not believe our pass protection has been elite.  

 

So where would you rank them?

 

also I think qb is an incredible outlier for these kinds of conversations generally. 

[hondo in seattle]

I thought passpro was poor in the Pats game - though the Pats blitzed a lot and I'm not sure how Next Gen Stats graded out the five offensive linemen in those situations.   Someone else may be assigned the blame when the D blitzes.  

 

I think passpro has been average-ish thus far this season.  And I'm happy with the progress versus 2018.  

[row_33]

1 hour ago, Mango said:

But Josh is running for his life...??‍♂️

You seen how rancid half the league is this year 

[Alphadawg7]

56 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

 

So where would you rank them?

 

also I think qb is an incredible outlier for these kinds of conversations generally. 

 

Fair enough on the QB comment, thats true.  But I think they have been too weak on the right side and a bit inconsistent.  Hard for me to say where I would rank them without fully evaluating other teams.  Im only disagreeing with being second best.  I wouldn't have had an issue if they said like 10th or something.  Im also not sweating the OL, they have 4 new guys, a rookie, some guys getting dinged up, etc.  I feel like they will get better as the season goes on.  

[billspro]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I think that's nonsense.   It shows how ridiculous these fake stats are.  I've watched a lot of pro football this season, and I've been at three of the first four Bills games, and I will tell you that Josh Allen is NOT getting the protection a lot of other QBs are getting.   

 

Completely agree, ESPN doesn’t have quality content anymore though so I’m not surprised. There is much better information out there. 

[VW82]

No doubt you guys eye balling from the upper deck have a much better read than paid employees pouring through game film with software ?

 

Part of the problem is Josh is holding the ball too long, not always but too often. I think the bigger issue is he's still having trouble identifying where rushers are coming from and so we're not in the right protections a lot of the time. I will admit he's getting better at that though. That SI article did a nice job pointing out ways Daboll has helped the issue with pre-snap motions which force the defense to show coverage schemes but you can't do that every down. 

 

I agree that there have been issues on the right side but for the most part we've looked so much better than last year it's night and day. Credit Beane and Bobby J for bringing in help and coaching them up.   

Edited October 5, 2019 by VW82

[Scott7975]

I looked at where this stat comes from.  ESPN.  Here is the link: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/27584726/nfl-pass-blocking-pass-rushing-rankings-2019-pbwr-prwr-leaderboard

 

Quote

Our Pass Block Win Rate metric tells us the rate at which linemen can sustain their blocks for 2.5 seconds or longer.

 

Both our tackles Nsekhe and Dawkins rate #8 and #10 at 92% according to them and Morse ranks 9th at center with 95%.  Our guards did not make top 10.  They also have a pass rush win rate for defense.  Only Oliver cracked their top 10 list.  Not sure how they are ranking the teams as a whole because we have 3 guys in the top 10.  So do the Packers but their guys individually rank higher than ours yet their team ranks lower.

As for my own eyeballs... I would say we have a "boom or bust" offensive line.  There are times where guys are just blown up from the snap with people on Allen almost immediately.  Then there are other times when our line does really well and Allen has lots of time.

Edited October 5, 2019 by Scott7975

[uticaclub]

3 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I am a football junkie...so I watch more than you might think...but obviously not watching all 31 other teams as close as Bills.

 

But I don't need to watch the other teams to know if the Bills line is playing well or not.  There is not a chance in hell I would rank the Bills OL pass blocking as second best and narrowly behind #1 Dallas.  

 

Right side of the line has been a mess, and I would heavily argue our run blocking has been superior to our pass blocking by a decent margin.  

Right side has been overloaded as Dawkins gets beat too often

[LSHMEAB]

I think the pass blocking, especially the interior linemen, has been decent. Dawkins hasn't been great, but he hasn't been AS BAD as the narrative. Ford has been a liability in pass pro, but Nike has been adequate. My issue with the line is downhill blocking. I'd like to see them dominate a few series. It's better than last year, but it's still not where it needs to be.

[White Linen]

I think the OL has played fantastic.