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Josh Allen 2019 Regular Season at 58.8% Completion Percentage


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4 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

His guys are wide open because they are too worried about Jackson taking off with the football on top of the excellent run game they already have even without him.  That moves defenders out of the way.  

 

Daboll schemes guys that get open by a step.  Around the league guys are in busted freaking coverage.  Half of Jacksons yards against the Bills happened on ONE play because of busted coverage.  That happens all game for him by weaker defenses that cant pull off the what we can.


Exactly

 

they are too scared of Lamar and his guys get wide open for easy tosses.  
 

 

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4 hours ago, jrober38 said:

 

Another misrepresentation. 

 

My argument was that if you want a QB, the math says you should go after the #1 QB in the draft. I haven't check since we picked Allen, but guys who go #1 overall work out around 60-70% of the time.

 

On the flip side, guys picked #2 to #32 overall, work out around 30% of the time.

 

It was an argument based on probability. At the time we needed a QB, and if you're going to try and get one, do whatever you can to make it happen in an attempt to improve your odds to a much higher probability than picking someone later in the first round.

 

I thought Winston was a pretty good prospect. I was wrong. I can live with that, but don't mislead the reasoning behind why I said it would be a good idea to trade up.

 

The whole rational was that if you're going to draft a QB, draft the best QB in that draft class. 

 

So then instead of getting Allen we should have traded the farm to go up and get Sam Darnold then.

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4 hours ago, jrober38 said:

I don't get the need to tear down our entire team to build one guy up into something he isn't.

 

In this thread alone, our elite defense has been down played, our receivers have been described as some of the worst in the NFL, our tight ends have been described as useless players who can't catch, our line has been down played. 

 

Additionally, the soon to be MVP has been described by numerous people as a one trick pony who wouldn't be able to produce 21 ppg in our offense. As a rookie, he led the Ravens to over 29 points per game in his six games as the starter, but some how he wouldn't be able to come close 21 points if he played here. 

 

It's all so bizarre. 

 

False

3 hours ago, jrober38 said:

 

You clearly don't understand what the word "fact" means. You keep confusing facts with your personal opinions. 

 

The Bills are 10-4 and have clinched a playoff spot in week 15. The only reason we're not considered Super Bowl contenders because our offense is so poor. 

 

and yet Allen is 6th in TDs.

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4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

No, Darnold went #3 overall.  Should have gotten Mayfield

 

Keeps me from gnawing my knuckles about the Pats game

 

True but I thought that Darnold was suppose to be the consensus best pre draft.  Maybe that was Rosen who was the "most pro ready"  In any case,  it wasn't Lamar and I highly doubt JRobber was banging the table for him back then.

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It’s OK to think both Jackson and Allen are good QBs.  It’s OK to acknowledge Jackson is having a better, MVP- like, season.  It’s not OK to cherry pick stats and it’s not OK to stubbornly stick to your Allen is bad screed because that’s what you thought before he was drafted and now you’re butt hurt because he’s proving you wrong.

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26 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

No, Darnold went #3 overall.  Should have gotten Mayfield

 

Keeps me from gnawing my knuckles about the Pats game

Seriously.  I'm going to enjoy this run, and the next one.  I've never been a guy who shows up at a message board and rants about how much money he'd spent to watch the likes of a Saint Doug or a Jauron or a Gailey or a Rex Ryan fight their ways to a 7-9 season.  Or worse.  This is something different, and I'm enjoying the hell out of it.

 

Does this team have flaws?  Yup.  But could they win the SB this year or next? ...

 

This hasn't been part of the conversation 'til recently.  But it should be.

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7 hours ago, jrober38 said:

 

This is what I don't get.

 

What are we asking Allen to do that Jackson can't do?

 

I legitimately don't think you've watched Lamar Jackson very much.

 

He's on the Ravens if you have NFL Gamepass and need to go back and see what their offense looks like.

7 hours ago, jrober38 said:

 

I view Jackson's playing style as being much more sustainable than Allen's. 

 

Jackson rarely receives big hits. He's extremely smart in the way he runs. 

 

Allen gets teed up all the time when he runs. When linebackers and safeties see him in the open field, they often go for the kill shot.

 

Guess I was right... you don't watch Lamar Jackson play very much at all  :doh:

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3 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

What about Russel Wilson?  He plays in a completely different offense then Jackson does.  If anything Wilson's use of the run, even as a young player, is far closer to Allen's style then Jackson's.  Do you actually watch the Ravens play offense?  It is a truly unique platform in what they ask their QB to do.

 

Oh and for the record, Wilson is a prime example of how a smart QB runs.  Allen needs to learn from what Wilson does.

 

 

 

wilson and allen's running styles are nothing alike lmao. Murray is more like Wilson. Allen runs like a full back and takes unnecessary sacks, he has way higher chance of getting injured than all the QB's being named here.

 

size does not matter, it is the way you protect yourself from hits and how good you are at avoiding hits. Allen is pretty awful at avoiding big hits, Kyler Murray is one of the best in the league at it. Look at Cam Newton...took hits for 3-4 years and is now crippled. 

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7 hours ago, jrober38 said:

 

I was a Tyrod is way better than EJ Manuel guy. 

 

You're a guy who really likes to use the word "Elite" with QBs.  It's always struck me some of the QBs you used to call "Elite" over at BBMB, from Josh Freeman when he was with the Bucs to RG3 to other guys who have fizzled out of the league.

 

It's okay because we all get these things wrong--I know I have... just ask everyone else--but when you are so arrogantly and blatantly ignoring absolutely any context in the play of the QB leading the team you supposedly love, it's just head-scratching.

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2 minutes ago, Penfield45 said:

 

wilson and allen's running styles are nothing alike lmao. Murray is more like Wilson. Allen runs like a full back and takes unnecessary sacks, he has way higher chance of getting injured than all the QB's being named here.

 

size does not matter, it is the way you protect yourself from hits and how good you are at avoiding hits. Allen is pretty awful at avoiding big hits, Kyler Murray is one of the best in the league at it. Look at Cam Newton...took hits for 3-4 years and is now crippled. 

 

Exactly.

 

Let's look at their career injuries:

 

Josh Allen

2015 - broken collarbone, missed 4 games

2017 - sprained AC joint, missed 2 games

2018 - sprained UCL, missed 4 games 

2019 - concussion, missed 0 games

 

Lamar Jackson

2015 - sprained ankle, missed 1 game

 

Lamar Jackson has run the ball 961 times over the past 5 years, and has missed one game due to a mildly sprained ankle.

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6 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Exactly.

 

Let's look at their career injuries:

 

Josh Allen

2015 - broken collarbone, missed 4 games

2017 - sprained AC joint, missed 2 games

2018 - sprained UCL, missed 4 games 

2019 - concussion, missed 0 games

 

Lamar Jackson

2015 - sprained ankle, missed 1 game

 

Lamar Jackson has run the ball 961 times over the past 5 years, and has missed one game due to a mildly sprained ankle.

 

Why are you listing past injuries?  Their argument isn't that past injuries will lead to lamar jackson getting hurt.  It is that his style of play will (not has) get him hurt.  Their past injuries are irrelevant, don't be obtuse in your medicore troll job.  

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7 hours ago, jrober38 said:

 

I don't view the Ravens as being significantly more talented than the Bills. 

 

Our defense is better than theirs. 

 

Our offensive personnel isn't a lot worse. They're better at tight end and have two premiere linemen, but I think we have better receivers. 

 

The Bills have a great defense.  So do the Ravens.  The Bills might be better in terms of yards and points allowed, but you're missing a critical point, especially for a young QB on the other side...

 

The Ravens have scored 5 defensive TDs.

 

The Bills have scored ZERO defensive TDs.

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3 minutes ago, Crayola64 said:

 

Why are you listing past injuries?  Their argument isn't that past injuries will lead to lamar jackson getting hurt.  It is that his style of play will (not has) get him hurt.  Their past injuries are irrelevant, don't be obtuse in your medicore troll job.  

 

His style of play has clearly shown he avoids injuries.

 

961 carries since starting at Louisville, and he's missed one game.

 

This argument that Jackson is going to start getting injured a bunch is nonsensical. 

Edited by jrober38
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1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I’m pretty sure that there are strict limitations under the CBA on when a team can offer a rookie an improved deal, and how much of an improvement it can be.

 

 

 A player is eligible for an extension after the third year of their rookie contract is complete. 

 

http://insidethepylon.com/nfl/front-office/2017/06/26/art-rookie-extension-deal/

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2 hours ago, JohninMinn. said:

There was a baseball player named Chuck  Knoblauch who played 2nd base for the Twins and Yankees. There was a point in his career where he could not make a simple throw to first base. Total mental block. He threw in the general direction and hoped. I think that's where Josh's head is at on the deep ball. A deep ball is a bomb with air under it ,not the laser deeps he hits with Brown coming back to the ball. Needs intensive therapy.

 

I understand your point, but I hope to never see those two names on the same page again!   ?

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12 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

His style of play has clearly shown he avoids injuries.

 

961 carries since starting at Louisville, and he's missed one game.

 

This argument that Jackson is going to start getting injured a bunch is nonsensical. 

 

I avoid these QB comparison threads like the plague but was bored so I read it.

Seriously jrob, enjoy the week.  We are in the playoffs.  There is a whole off season.

I truly mean that as a fellow Bills fan.

FWIW

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6 hours ago, jrober38 said:

 

Dawson Knox is 6'4. Duke Williams is 6'3. Robert Foster is 6'2. 

 

Whar's your point?

 

The vast majority of their receiver targets go to Snead and Brown, who are 5'11 and 5'8 (John Brown is 5'11 and Beasley is 5'8). 

 

Stop trolling.

 

The other poster just included a ton of Ravens WRs and TEs who are constantly on the field and consistently targeted and you counter for the Bills with one guy Allen desperately wants to throw to but who can't catch the football and 2 other guys who are rarely on the field.

 

What are you even doing?  Do you honestly think you're making any valid points?

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1 hour ago, Scott7975 said:

5'9", 5'11", 6'2"

 

5'8", 5'11", 5'8"

Actually Lamar's favorite targets are:

1.) Mark Andrews 6'4" TE

2.) Hollywood Brown 5'9" WR with 4.3 speed

3.) Willie Snead 5'11" WR

 

Then his next two leading receivers are his other two 6'4" TE's in Hurst and Boyle. Combined his TE's, who are all 6'4",  have accounted for 112 of Lamar's 245 completions. Add in the 12 by Miles Boykin, their 6'4" WR, and the total jumps to 124 of Lamar's 245 completions going to players that are 6'4". 

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5 hours ago, jrober38 said:

 

You clearly don't understand what the word "fact" means. You keep confusing facts with your personal opinions. 

 

The Bills are 10-4 and have clinched a playoff spot in week 15. The only reason we're not considered Super Bowl contenders because our offense is so poor. 

 

This is interesting wording...

 

you say "the only reason we're not considered Super Bowl contenders."  

 

So, are you then acknowledging that we actually are Super Bowl contenders... or was that just a Freudian slip?

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2 hours ago, Penfield45 said:

 

wilson and allen's running styles are nothing alike lmao. Murray is more like Wilson. Allen runs like a full back and takes unnecessary sacks, he has way higher chance of getting injured than all the QB's being named here.

 

size does not matter, it is the way you protect yourself from hits and how good you are at avoiding hits. Allen is pretty awful at avoiding big hits, Kyler Murray is one of the best in the league at it. Look at Cam Newton...took hits for 3-4 years and is now crippled. 

 

My point was that Wilson runs mostly as a second option on a play and Allen is starting to follow this pattern.  That is the "style" I was referring to. 

 

In contrast Jackson runs mostly by design.  The Ravens blocking schemes and pass routes are set up to enable Jackson to run if that's what he chooses to do.  Wilson and Allen mostly run when their pass protection breaks down or the D-line is undisciplined in their pass rush and leaves wide open run lanes.

 

 

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I will agree though that if the Bills want to be a team that doesn't lose another game for the rest of the season......................

 

the offense as a whole need to step up their game, starting with receivers holding onto the ball, Gore finding the fountain of youth, the OL recognizing a blitz...........

 

and 4th quarter Josh Allen needs to be heard from before the 4th quarter.

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9 hours ago, VW82 said:

 

It's been said several times in this thread, including by a mod, that Jackson wouldn't be anywhere close to what Allen is in Buffalo. "Nothing" is perhaps overstating it but so is what was actually said. 

 

I'm not sure what significants the "mod" thing has here.  Call me by my name, @VW82.  When I'm talking football, I'm not speaking as a mod.

You are also misrepresenting somewhat.  The actual point of discussion was  a claim that Jackson would do as well or better than Allen, IF HE WERE DROPPED INTO OUR OFFENSE WITH OUR CURRENT PLAYERS in Buffalo.  

 

Nowhere did I say "he wouldn't be anywhere close to what Allen is in Buffalo", but I don't think he'd be better and quite likely not as well.

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@jrober38... please tell us what you disagree with in this assessment of the Steelers game:

https://theathletic.com/1465285/2019/12/17/bills-all-22-review-josh-allen-does-the-little-things-and-cody-ford-has-his-best-game-of-the-season?source=shared-article

1) Allen flips the script once again

It shouldn’t be a surprise by now because of how often Josh Allen does this sort of thing. For the fifth or sixth time in his young career, Allen turned a notable weakness in his game into a non-factor the following week. Allen’s development is ongoing, showing that he isn’t stuck in his ways. He makes changes to be a better asset to his team and to help move the ball down the field more effectively. While the defense deserves a heap of praise for the Bills’ success this season, Allen does too for his nonstop tinkering.

 

The previous week, the Ravens seemed to find a way to turn the clock back on Allen. They made him nervous, he panicked in the pocket more than he has in the last two months and, worse, he hung onto the ball far too long. So, Allen went back to the drawing board. His processing speed, against an aggressive Steelers defense, was better than it’s been all season. He saw things well ahead of the snap, he made quick decisions and he didn’t allow the Steelers’ pass rushers to control the game. Last week against Baltimore, the average time it took Allen to throw, scramble or get sacked was 2.93 in 50 dropbacks — one of his highest single-game averages of the season. In 30 dropbacks against Pittsburgh, Allen cut that down by almost half a second, averaging 2.48 seconds before the throw, scramble or sack. In the Ravens game alone, there were 20 separate plays where Allen held onto the ball for at least three seconds before making a decision or getting sacked.

 

 

One glance at Allen’s traditional stat line against Pittsburgh might be underwhelming. Reviewing the film and watching Allen’s decisiveness and ball placement revealed a bit more. Allen was confident, he didn’t allow the Steelers to do what they wanted defensively and his execution of the game plan removed the ball-hawking Minkah Fitzpatrick from the game. On some of his more significant pass plays, Allen’s eyes moved Fitzpatrick away from his real target. We all remember the post-Renegade deep ball to John Brown –Fitzpatrick would have been there had Allen not given a long look right at the beginning of the play. Similarly on the Tyler Kroft touchdown, Allen froze safety Terrell Edmunds in place by looking left before going to his real read on the right and firing a dart for the go-ahead score.

 

These, along with the pre-snap modifications and quickened processing time post-snap, are next-level quarterbacking improvements. You see a line of 13 for 25 for 139 yards on the box score, but when you remove drops (3), throwaways (2) and passes tipped at the line of scrimmage (3), Allen’s adjusted completion rate is 76.5 percent. If Allen can be consistent with this style of play, the Bills are onto something with their second-year player.

 

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I just want to highlight the progress Allen has made at every stage of his career. I did it with passer rating to keep things simple, in 5 game increments.

 

Games 1-5: 60.4 passer rating

Games 6-10: 70.3 passer rating

Games 11-15: 80.8 passer rating

Games 16-20: 82.5 passer rating

Games 21-25: 90.1 passer rating (if you add in game 26 against Pittsburgh, it's 86.8)

 

He keeps getting better at every stage of his career no matter how you measure it. The question isn't whether Allen is good enough right now. The question is whether this trend will continue, or flatten out, or regress.

Edited by HappyDays
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10 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

@jrober38... please tell us what you disagree with in this assessment of the Steelers game:

https://theathletic.com/1465285/2019/12/17/bills-all-22-review-josh-allen-does-the-little-things-and-cody-ford-has-his-best-game-of-the-season?source=shared-article

1) Allen flips the script once again

It shouldn’t be a surprise by now because of how often Josh Allen does this sort of thing. For the fifth or sixth time in his young career, Allen turned a notable weakness in his game into a non-factor the following week. Allen’s development is ongoing, showing that he isn’t stuck in his ways. He makes changes to be a better asset to his team and to help move the ball down the field more effectively. While the defense deserves a heap of praise for the Bills’ success this season, Allen does too for his nonstop tinkering.

 

The previous week, the Ravens seemed to find a way to turn the clock back on Allen. They made him nervous, he panicked in the pocket more than he has in the last two months and, worse, he hung onto the ball far too long. So, Allen went back to the drawing board. His processing speed, against an aggressive Steelers defense, was better than it’s been all season. He saw things well ahead of the snap, he made quick decisions and he didn’t allow the Steelers’ pass rushers to control the game. Last week against Baltimore, the average time it took Allen to throw, scramble or get sacked was 2.93 in 50 dropbacks — one of his highest single-game averages of the season. In 30 dropbacks against Pittsburgh, Allen cut that down by almost half a second, averaging 2.48 seconds before the throw, scramble or sack. In the Ravens game alone, there were 20 separate plays where Allen held onto the ball for at least three seconds before making a decision or getting sacked.

 

 

One glance at Allen’s traditional stat line against Pittsburgh might be underwhelming. Reviewing the film and watching Allen’s decisiveness and ball placement revealed a bit more. Allen was confident, he didn’t allow the Steelers to do what they wanted defensively and his execution of the game plan removed the ball-hawking Minkah Fitzpatrick from the game. On some of his more significant pass plays, Allen’s eyes moved Fitzpatrick away from his real target. We all remember the post-Renegade deep ball to John Brown –Fitzpatrick would have been there had Allen not given a long look right at the beginning of the play. Similarly on the Tyler Kroft touchdown, Allen froze safety Terrell Edmunds in place by looking left before going to his real read on the right and firing a dart for the go-ahead score.

 

These, along with the pre-snap modifications and quickened processing time post-snap, are next-level quarterbacking improvements. You see a line of 13 for 25 for 139 yards on the box score, but when you remove drops (3), throwaways (2) and passes tipped at the line of scrimmage (3), Allen’s adjusted completion rate is 76.5 percent. If Allen can be consistent with this style of play, the Bills are onto something with their second-year player.

 

 

That's a fair assessment.

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8 hours ago, HappyDays said:

I just want to highlight the progress Allen has made at every stage of his career. I did it with passer rating to keep things simple, in 5 game increments.

 

Games 1-5: 60.4 passer rating

Games 6-10: 70.3 passer rating

Games 11-15: 80.8 passer rating

Games 16-20: 82.5 passer rating

Games 21-25: 90.1 passer rating (if you add in game 26 against Pittsburgh, it's 86.8)

 

He keeps getting better at every stage of his career no matter how you measure it. The question isn't whether Allen is good enough right now. The question is whether this trend will continue, or flatten out, or regress.

 

Wow.

 

That's really amazing considering he's in the thick of the most difficult stretch of defensive units he's ever faced.

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1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Wow.

 

That's really amazing considering he's in the thick of the most difficult stretch of defensive units he's ever faced.

 

Yep he's in a murderer's row of pass defenses right now. Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and New England are all top 5 pass defenses. Wouldn't surprise me if this is the first stretch of games where his passer rating goes backwards but the overall trend is hard to ignore.

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11 hours ago, HappyDays said:

I just want to highlight the progress Allen has made at every stage of his career. I did it with passer rating to keep things simple, in 5 game increments.

 

Games 1-5: 60.4 passer rating

Games 6-10: 70.3 passer rating

Games 11-15: 80.8 passer rating

Games 16-20: 82.5 passer rating

Games 21-25: 90.1 passer rating (if you add in game 26 against Pittsburgh, it's 86.8)

 

He keeps getting better at every stage of his career no matter how you measure it. The question isn't whether Allen is good enough right now. The question is whether this trend will continue, or flatten out, or regress.

 

I was just heartened by a locker room interview of Mitch Morse.  ~2:40 in: he is asked how much has Josh grown since the first NE game.  Without hesitation he says "A ton".  Then he lapses into boilerplate (I think we all have, we still have a lot to work on etc etc) but just the tone and the unhesitating simple response came across as heartfelt and real.

 

If you're a QB, your center more than anyone else is the guy who knows your deepest secrets.

 

We'll see!  CAN'T WAIT!

 

 

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13 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I was just heartened by a locker room interview of Mitch Morse.  ~2:40 in: he is asked how much has Josh grown since the first NE game.  Without hesitation he says "A ton".  Then he lapses into boilerplate (I think we all have, we still have a lot to work on etc etc) but just the tone and the unhesitating simple response came across as heartfelt and real.

 

If you're a QB, your center more than anyone else is the guy who knows your deepest secrets.

 

We'll see!  CAN'T WAIT!

 

 

How Allen plays in this game will tell alot. 

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49 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Yep he's in a murderer's row of pass defenses right now. Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and New England are all top 5 pass defenses. Wouldn't surprise me if this is the first stretch of games where his passer rating goes backwards but the overall trend is hard to ignore.

 

Dallas and Denver were both top-10 pass D units when he faced them too.

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Josh Allen has made significant strides with his accuracy.

The Buffalo Bills' quarterback has completed 59.3% of his passes this season, up from 52.8% as a rookie. That number deserves to be higher, though.

Allen's pass catchers have let him down too often this season. According to analytics website Pro Football Focus, the Bills have 34 incompletions that they fault the receiver for. That's tied for the fifth most in the NFL through Week 15.

The breakdown:

Dawson Knox, 8
Cole Beasley, 8
Devin Singletary, 5
John Brown, 5
TJ Yeldon, 1
Andre Roberts, 1
Robert Foster, 1
Tommy Sweeney, 1
Patrick DiMarco, 1
Duke Williams, 1
Isaiah McKenzie, 1
Frank Gore, 1

 

https://buffalonews.com/2019/12/20/buffalo-bills-josh-allen-receivers-drops-new-england-patriots-nfl/

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