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Josh Allen 2019 Regular Season at 58.8% Completion Percentage


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3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Um....if you've watched the Ravens play, they never take their foot off the gas.  The Ravens will be ahead and Lamar will still be slinging it.

Do you have a breakdown of their passing attempts by half?  Lamar threw a bunch of late tds against the Jets but he was insanely efficient and they weren’t throwing it a ton. 

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1 minute ago, whatdrought said:

 

Good point on Andrews, but definitely hard to say who helps who the most. I was really high on Andrews coming out and figured he would be pretty good wherever he went. Still funny to me that they took Hurst in the first and he has been largely outplayed by the third rounder. 

 

I don't think Hap is trying to discredit him. I think it's a fair point to question if he could have the same success here in such a different system and with such a comparably bare cupboard. Jackson is a good football player and does alright at throwing the ball. If he can manage to stay healthy and not have to change the amount that he runs, he'll be good for a long time. He doesn't (i think) fit under the same grouping of gimmicky, running QB's that can be figured out by Defenses easily and then stopped for two reasons: 1- he runs like no other QB ever has, better than most RB's ever have. 2- He does have really good arm talent and if you sell out to stop him, he can make enough throws to make you pay (see pass to Hurst as example). That being said, if his game is forced to change where he can't run, or he loses his elusiveness, he will need to develop an ability to go through reads (so many passes right now are 1 reads because the offense is so efficient) and the capability to pass outside the numbers. As of yet, we haven't seen that. Doesn't mean it can't happen. 

 

In Jackson's defense, he has some of the weakest outside receivers in the NFL.

 

I'm sure he'd love to throw outside the hashes, but who is he supposed to be throwing those passes to?

 

Marquise Brown is a deep threat and WR screen guy. Willie Snead is a slot guy. Past them they have nothing at WR. 

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7 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Again nit picking, why is it a given that Allen is a better passer than Jackson? He has never been a better passer at any level than Jackson. Not when Jackson was passing in ACC and Allen was in the MWC.  And not so far in the nfl.  Allen certainly has the stronger arm and could be.  But he has not been so far.  And given that Jackson will be the mvp, it’s not even a knock.  But man, if We had Jackson, people would be falling all over themselves praising him.

 

I will answer with my personal opinion, the eye test. Ive watched them both, virtually every NFL game (allen for sure, probably 90 percent of Lamars), and most of Lamars in college. Lamar has a passable arm (again, to my eye test), whereas Allen has the indisputable "can make every throw". They both have accuracy issues. So I will go with the guy who actually can physically make every throw, and is still extremely dangerous with his legs, and I think can hold up to the beatings a mobile QB will take...I Don't think Lamar will. Lamar has been surrounded by talent and scheme so far in the NFL (not in college, his senior year offense was laughably bad in the talent department), Allen is barely scratching the surface in that department. 

 

Im choosing Allen over potential for sustained greatness. I think both could be really dangerous in the NFL, I just personally think Jackson is the riskier bet because it depends on an offense being tailored to his strenghts, where as Allen could develop into a "plug and play" QB. 

 

If Lamar Jackson were on the Bills we wouldnt be running that same offense and he wouldnt be having an MVP Season, I would bet my life on that. BUT, you are right, if he was on the Bills and playing like he is for the Ravens then I would be stanning for him hardcore....but that aint reality. 

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1 minute ago, jrober38 said:

 

In Jackson's defense, he has some of the weakest outside receivers in the NFL.

 

I'm sure he'd love to throw outside the hashes, but who is he supposed to be throwing those passes to?

 

Marquise Brown is a deep threat and WR screen guy. Willie Snead is a slot guy. Past them they have nothing at WR. 

 

and allen has worse receivers than jackson

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10 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Just nit picking here but Jackson didn’t inherit an elite TE like Gronk or Kelce.  Andrews was drafted in the 3 round. Jackson deserves a lot of credit for his success since they both came into together.

 

this isn’t really directed at you because you are very reasonable with your posts. But people work really hard to discredit Jackson. Yes he is in a good system.  But maybe the Heisman trophy winner who is going to be the NFL is just a good qb.

Newton was off to the best passing season of his career in 2018 before he got hurt. 

 

They also drafted Andrews after they took Hurst--who was drafted 8 picks before Lamar.

 

Baltimore spent 1st round picks on pass catchers for Lamar in consecutive drafts, and backed it up by taking Andrews in the 3rd and signing Ingram.

 

^More for clarification on their investment in the skill positions than anything else.

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23 hours ago, jrober38 said:

 

Athleticism has next to nothing to do with predicting a quarterback's success. 

 

Brady, Brees, Montana, Manning, etc, none of these guys brought a lot to the table in terms of athleticism. 

 

The league has changed.

 

Offensive lines have gotten worse overall... probably because of collective bargaining and limited practices.

 

Who are the best QBs in the NFL drafted within the last 15 years?

 

How many of those guys are statuesque (or close to it) like the QBs you just mentioned?

 

Allen is honestly the prototype of the NEW QB, and if he keeps improving, Bills fans very well might build a statue of him in Buffalo the way Jordan Palmer said we would.

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1 minute ago, whatdrought said:

 

Good point on Andrews, but definitely hard to say who helps who the most. I was really high on Andrews coming out and figured he would be pretty good wherever he went. Still funny to me that they took Hurst in the first and he has been largely outplayed by the third rounder. 

 

I don't think Hap is trying to discredit him. I think it's a fair point to question if he could have the same success here in such a different system and with such a comparably bare cupboard. Jackson is a good football player and does alright at throwing the ball. If he can manage to stay healthy and not have to change the amount that he runs, he'll be good for a long time. He doesn't (i think) fit under the same grouping of gimmicky, running QB's that can be figured out by Defenses easily and then stopped for two reasons: 1- he runs like no other QB ever has, better than most RB's ever have. 2- He does have really good arm talent and if you sell out to stop him, he can make enough throws to make you pay (see pass to Hurst as example). That being said, if his game is forced to change where he can't run, or he loses his elusiveness, he will need to develop an ability to go through reads (so many passes right now are 1 reads because the offense is so efficient) and the capability to pass outside the numbers. As of yet, we haven't seen that. Doesn't mean it can't happen. 

I liked Andrews too but no one thought he would be this good Or else he doesn’t go in the 3rd (hell the Ravens took another TE before him!). Jackson and him had an immediate connection as rookie.  I is almost like saying If Knox was producing like Andrews, Allen inherited an elite TE.  Jackson’s biggest strength as a passer is throwing over the middle. Andrews is a good player and Jackson feeds him. 

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5 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

That's one investment strategy. Another is to take the sure thing and bank the dividends every year. 

 

Do you think the Ravens would have 12 guys in the Pro Bowl if they weren't 12-2 and the leading scoring offense in the NFL?

One investment strategy is short-term.  The other is long-term.

 

I think you missed my point about collective talent, perhaps intentionally.

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Just now, C.Biscuit97 said:

Not true Doc.  He was 2nd in passing attempts and led the nfl in tds his 2nd year as a starter.  

I think a better comparison right now is a young Big Ben. He was a more refined passer but less of a threat with his legs. Ben won a ton of games in the 4th quarter after 3 quarters of lackluster play and his defense keeping them in games. Was there a more clutch qb from 05 until about 2010? 
 

heck, the year they went 12-4 and won the super bowl in 08, he threw for a mere 3100 yds 17 td and 15 int but it seemed like every week he was orchestrating the game winning drive. Living in Stiller country I couldn’t stand the hype he got with the manner in which he won games. I personally think Ben became a much better qb over the last half of his career..... Now that I’m on the same side of the fence as they were i sorta get it now.  Haha. 

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9 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

In Jackson's defense, he has some of the weakest outside receivers in the NFL.

 

I'm sure he'd love to throw outside the hashes, but who is he supposed to be throwing those passes to?

 

Marquise Brown is a deep threat and WR screen guy. Willie Snead is a slot guy. Past them they have nothing at WR. 

 

Brown could EASILY run those outside routes, because hes a deep threat. He has all the cushion and space in the world to run those routes. Our Brown runs those routes ALL THE TIME and Allen connects for those same exact reasons. I THINK they dont run those routes in Baltimore because A) they dont need to right now and B) it doesnt play to Lamars strenghts. You need serious arm strength to pound that ball in time or its an eaassssyyy pick for the D, even with cushion (see Nate Peterman - not saying thats the level of Lamars arm strength at all). My knock on Lamar going back to college hasnt been accuracy, its been total strength. Even his middle of the field throws lack the ZIP that I want, and that I see on Allens. Love this debate by the way. 

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30 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

I'm not a huge Jackson guy.

 

My issue is that Allen still has miles to go before he's a legit franchise QB.

 

That may or may not happen.

 

Knowing how hard it is to find a QB, I'd rather have a guy who I'm pretty sure is a top 10 QB over a guy who needs a lot to go right to ever get to that level. 

Miles...he is not far from 65% passing......has a 2:1 TD/Int ration not hard to fathom going into the  25-30 range next year yard per ....more completions would move to more steadily in the 250-275 yards per games .... upper 80's rating into the 90s next year or mid 40s to mid to upper 50's next year..

 

But this is miles away ehhhhh....so jaded and so negative

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Just now, Pokebball said:

One investment strategy is short-term.  The other is long-term.

 

I think you missed my point about collective talent, perhaps intentionally.

 

I don't view the Ravens as being significantly more talented than the Bills. 

 

Our defense is better than theirs. 

 

Our offensive personnel isn't a lot worse. They're better at tight end and have two premiere linemen, but I think we have better receivers. 

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3 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

In Jackson's defense, he has some of the weakest outside receivers in the NFL.

 

I'm sure he'd love to throw outside the hashes, but who is he supposed to be throwing those passes to?

 

Marquise Brown is a deep threat and WR screen guy. Willie Snead is a slot guy. Past them they have nothing at WR. 

 

Chicken Egg. He doesn't pass outside so his WR's don't make plays. Watch some of his games, even against the Jets (whom are terrible and are starting Betty White at CB) his passes were all middle routes or posts. 

 

9 minutes ago, Pokebball said:

Let's try this explanation for you.  Think about buying a QB similar to buying a stock or other security.  The theory is to buy low and sell high.  An investor wants the greatest return on their investment.  What you're wanting to do here is to buy a QB at their high and sell a QB that most all of the experts say is a QB with a high ceiling, or in other words has a significant opportunity for a better ROI than the QB already at or close to the high. 

 

Your question, would you trade straight across, is a silly hypothetical to begin with.  That's not how this would work.  The Bills would have to pay for the higher QB at that higher value, and therefore give up the potential ROI.  Business men and women do not do that.  The Pegulas and Beanes are making what they consider to be the best ROI for the organization.

 

Additionally, you can't consider one player, in your case the QB, without looking at the other assets around that one player.  You have to consider the synergy created by when you surround good players with other good players (you know, the 2+2=5 dynamic).  The Bills put one guy on the pro bowl.  The Ravens put 12.  I think this considerations discounts your argument most significantly.

 

Just a few thoughts for you to consider.

 

Let me know if you ever write a book! lol

 

9 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Um....if you've watched the Ravens play, they never take their foot off the gas.  The Ravens will be ahead and Lamar will still be slinging it.

 

Example: Jets game- He threw more when the game was done than he did before.

 

2 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I liked Andrews too but no one thought he would be this good Or else he doesn’t go in the 3rd (hell the Ravens took another TE before him!). Jackson and him had an immediate connection as rookie.  I is almost like saying If Knox was producing like Andrews, Allen inherited an elite TE.  Jackson’s biggest strength as a passer is throwing over the middle. Andrews is a good player and Jackson feeds him. 

 

Right, but with two players who have always played together, it's impossible to determine who is "making" who. Andrews has had some great catches that have bailed out Lamar, that is for sure. 

 

5 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Do you have a breakdown of their passing attempts by half?  Lamar threw a bunch of late tds against the Jets but he was insanely efficient and they weren’t throwing it a ton. 

 

Quarter: 

1- 88

2- 90

3- 103

4- 88 

 

Half: 

1st: 178

2nd: 191

 

Doesn't fit the "they stop passing later in games when they have the lead" idea. 

 

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5 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

In Jackson's defense, he has some of the weakest outside receivers in the NFL.

 

I'm sure he'd love to throw outside the hashes, but who is he supposed to be throwing those passes to?

 

Marquise Brown is a deep threat and WR screen guy. Willie Snead is a slot guy. Past them they have nothing at WR. 

Why would he bother? He’s routinely throwing anywhere else on the field to guys that are comically wide open.  

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6 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I liked Andrews too but no one thought he would be this good Or else he doesn’t go in the 3rd (hell the Ravens took another TE before him!). Jackson and him had an immediate connection as rookie.  I is almost like saying If Knox was producing like Andrews, Allen inherited an elite TE.  Jackson’s biggest strength as a passer is throwing over the middle. Andrews is a good player and Jackson feeds him. 

This comment made me think and then look at the best tight ends. They're all generally 3rd round or later. Scouts really seem to struggle with this. Drafting a tight end in the first round looks like the worst thing a team could do actually.

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8 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

In Jackson's defense, he has some of the weakest outside receivers in the NFL.

 

I'm sure he'd love to throw outside the hashes, but who is he supposed to be throwing those passes to?

 

Marquise Brown is a deep threat and WR screen guy. Willie Snead is a slot guy. Past them they have nothing at WR. 

Jackson legs are the reason guys are wide open as they lack discipline.   The TD pass to Hurst was a perfect example one slip up by the safeties getting caught looking in the backfield.

 

It's stupid crazy how much it is happening this year.  Good for him but eventually his legs will go poof and then we shall see if he can play QB  I say the inaccuracy will become very telling.  It's not an if it's a when will his legs get an injury that slows him down.

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8 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

They also drafted Andrews after they took Hurst--who was drafted 8 picks before Lamar.

 

Baltimore spent 1st round picks on pass catchers for Lamar in consecutive drafts, and backed it up by taking Andrews in the 3rd and signing Ingram.

 

^More for clarification on their investment in the skill positions than anything else.

Yup and we added 2 good priced FA wrs, had a young 2nd rounder who sucked, Gore, Kroft, a whole new oline, and Singletary/ Knox. Both teams have tried to help their young qbs as they should. 

Just now, ILBillsfan said:

Jackson legs are the reason guys are wide open as they lack discipline.   The TD pass to Hurst was a perfect example one slip up by the safeties getting caught looking in the backfield.

 

It's stupid crazy how much it is happening this year.  Good for him but eventually his legs will go poof and then we shall see if he can play QB  I say the inaccuracy will become very telling.  It's not an if it's a when will his legs get an injury that slows him down.

Can’t you say the same for Allen? They are very similar qbs at this point. 

1 minute ago, LBSeeBallLBGetBall said:

This comment made me think and then look at the best tight ends. They're all generally 3rd round or later. Scouts really seem to struggle with this. Drafting a tight end in the first round looks like the worst thing a team could do actually.

I love tight ends (?) and always want to draft one high. But you’re right. Rarely do 1st round ones live up to the hype.  

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8 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

I disagree.

 

I think Brown is a very good receiver and Beasley is fine in the slot.

 

Brown is way better than anything the Ravens have.

 

Hmmm...compare Brown's stats with Jackson at QB last year to his stats with Allen at QB this year and get back to us...

 

Also, aren't you the same guy that said that Daboll schemes our WRs open but they drop the ball?

 

Is there any consistency in your takes aside from "BAD JOSH"?

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9 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

 

Chicken Egg. He doesn't pass outside so his WR's don't make plays. Watch some of his games, even against the Jets (whom are terrible and are starting Betty White at CB) his passes were all middle routes or posts. 

 

 

Let me know if you ever write a book! lol

 

 

Example: Jets game- He threw more when the game was done than he did before.

 

 

Right, but with two players who have always played together, it's impossible to determine who is "making" who. Andrews has had some great catches that have bailed out Lamar, that is for sure. 

 

 

Quarter: 

1- 88

2- 90

3- 103

4- 88 

 

Half: 

1st: 178

2nd: 191

 

Doesn't fit the "they stop passing later in games when they have the lead" idea. 

 

Interesting. What’s Allen’s out of curiosity?

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9 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

I don't view the Ravens as being significantly more talented than the Bills. 

 

Our defense is better than theirs. 

 

Our offensive personnel isn't a lot worse. They're better at tight end and have two premiere linemen, but I think we have better receivers. 

Significant is a squishy word.  I don't think the Bills defense is significantly better than the Ravens :) 

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3 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Can’t you say the same for Allen? They are very similar qbs at this point.   

No Allen is better pocket guy than Jackson. Hardly similar besides they both do run but the difference and threat lvl is incredibly different.  If you can not see that then I'm sorry I have to explain it to you.

 

Allen foot got banged up in the Ravens game and Josh was forced to not be mobile in that game hence like four rushes that game.

 

Jackson being forced to pass only would be a disaster for the Ravens.  

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1 minute ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Interesting. What’s Allen’s out of curiosity?

I'm guessing Allen's is going to spike up in the last 7 minutes of the 4th quarter :) 

16 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

I disagree.

 

I think Brown is a very good receiver and Beasley is fine in the slot.

 

Brown is way better than anything the Ravens have.

I've come to understand that Brown and Beasley are fine smurfs

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55 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Interesting. What’s Allen’s out of curiosity?

 

1: 67

2: 77

3: 57

4: 54

 

First half: 144

Second Half: 111

 

That's intriguing to me.. Really makes me question our Run pass splits.

 

EDIT: These are completions only- my bad. 

 

Borrowed from @BuffaloHokie13

 

Quarter:

1- 111

2- 129

3- 99

4- 91

 

Half:

1st: 240

2nd: 190

 

Edited by whatdrought
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21 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Because they are never behind, Jackson doesn’t really get to pad his stats every game.  And he is the biggest reason their run game is so good. 

 

I don't disagree with either of these statements.  However they include nuance which the poster I responded to either intentionally or not is ignoring.  Lamar is lights out this year and he is still behind Tannehill in all of those categories I listed.  Stats lie and there is so much more to them then the gross numbers his argument lacks that nuance.

 

12 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Not true Doc.  He was 2nd in passing attempts and led the nfl in tds his 2nd year as a starter.  

 

I swear I'm not stalking you :blush: I only am responding because I looked up Brady's numbers yesterday...

 

In his second year Brady's numbers looked like this:

62.1 comp%, 3764 yards passing, 6.3 ypa, 28 tds, 14 ints, and a rating of 85.7

 

Josh's second year (some are projected):

59.3 comp%, 3287 yards passing, 6.7 ypa, 20 tds, 10 ints, and a rating of 84.6

if you include rushing 3820 yards, 30 tds

 

Clearly still some room to grow as a passer but overall production is pretty close.  In his 4th year starting Brady really came into his own backslid a little in his 6th and then became the Brady we all know is his 7th year starting.  That was the 18-1 year where he had his best weapons.  

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1 minute ago, whatdrought said:

 

1: 67

2: 77

3: 57

4: 54

 

First half: 144

Second Half: 111

 

That's intriguing to me.. Really makes me question our Run pass splits.

 

Not sure where you're getting this info.  It's interesting and telling.  Is there anyway for you to get Allen's numbers in the 2nd half of the 4th quarter?  While I love the 4th quarter drives to win games, I kinda really do hate them for that same reason.

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1 minute ago, Pokebball said:

Not sure where you're getting this info.  It's interesting and telling.  Is there anyway for you to get Allen's numbers in the 2nd half of the 4th quarter?  While I love the 4th quarter drives to win games, I kinda really do hate them for that same reason.

 

Here's another point I'd like to make:

 

There's money downs (3rd/4th)

Money quarters (4th)

and money quarters of the season (4th).

 

To my untrained eye:


Josh is clutch on 3rd and 4th downs.

Clutch in the 4th quarter.

And has been clutch in the final quarter of both his seasons. (as an aside: remember when the concern brigade was screeching that we were going to lose ALL of the games against dallas/balt/schittsburgh and NE? I do. Don't they look a bit foolish at the moment?)

 

That tells you much of what you need to know about him.

 

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23 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

Quarter: 

1- 88

2- 90

3- 103

4- 88 

 

Half: 

1st: 178

2nd: 191

 

Doesn't fit the "they stop passing later in games when they have the lead" idea. 

Compared to Allen who looks like this:

Quarter:

1- 111

2- 129

3- 99

4- 91

 

Half:

1st: 240

2nd: 190

 

And yes, Allen missed a 4th Quarter. By the averages you could add 7 to his 4th quarter and second half tallies.

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3 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

Here's another point I'd like to make:

 

There's money downs (3rd/4th)

Money quarters (4th)

and money quarters of the season (4th).

 

To my untrained eye:


Josh is clutch on 3rd and 4th downs.

Clutch in the 4th quarter.

And has been clutch in the final quarter of both his seasons. (as an aside: remember when the concern brigade was screeching that we were going to lose ALL of the games against dallas/balt/schittsburgh and NE? I do. Don't they look a bit foolish at the moment?)

 

That tells you much of what you need to know about him.

 

I've been meaning to ask you since joining this board.  Does your name reference Winslow AZ?  Have you been there?  I've driven by a dozen times, always assuming it's more tourist trap than anything else.  The Eagles have always been one of my favs and I think I've talked myself into stopping the next time I'm on Route 66.  Is it worth the stop?

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1 minute ago, Pokebball said:

I've been meaning to ask you since joining this board.  Does your name reference Winslow AZ?  Have you been there?  I've driven by a dozen times, always assuming it's more tourist trap than anything else.  The Eagles have always been one of my favs and I think I've talked myself into stopping the next time I'm on Route 66.  Is it worth the stop?

 

Nope. Winslow Twp, NJ.

 

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34 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Do you have a breakdown of their passing attempts by half?  Lamar threw a bunch of late tds against the Jets but he was insanely efficient and they weren’t throwing it a ton. 

 

They never throw it a ton, that's why Jackson averages 17.5 attempts/game and 206 ypg. 

I was responding to the assertion that he never has the chance to pad his stats because they're usually ahead.  I don't, but I think he throws a consistent # times between halves (maybe actually a bit more yardage in the second half because teams sometimes sell out to stop the run and the short passing game, then he zings them deep.) 

 

But he'll still be passing for TDs when they're ahead.

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42 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

In Jackson's defense, he has some of the weakest outside receivers in the NFL.

 

This is a spicy take.  

 

The guy only has 5 wideouts and 2 tight ends to throw to. 

 

Youre trying too hard and bringing in the fake news now. 

 

 

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34 minutes ago, Pokebball said:

I'm guessing Allen's is going to spike up in the last 7 minutes of the 4th quarter :) 

I've come to understand that Brown and Beasley are fine smurfs

 

Beasley was 1 for 6 targets on Sunday night. 

Two of the targets were not catchable balls - one batted, one off target. 

One of them he 100% should have gotten.

One of them was a ball he got both hands on and a taller WR would have caught.

 

John Brown is Truth - he's a legit WR - but he has struggled to get open against physical DB play that slows him and knocks him off route, and struggled to make contested catches that some top guys pull in.

 

The Ravens did decide to move on from him in favor of drafting Marquise Brown.  I don't think they would have let John Brown walk and spent a first round pick on a guy if they thought Brown was just as good or better.

 

56 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

That's one investment strategy. Another is to take the sure thing and bank the dividends every year. 

Do you think the Ravens would have 12 guys in the Pro Bowl if they weren't 12-2 and the leading scoring offense in the NFL?

 

The Pro Bowl has become way too much of a popularity contest populated largely by players from teams who get late games, night games, and press.

So No, but what's that got to say to anything?

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54 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

That's one investment strategy. Another is to take the sure thing and bank the dividends every year. 

 

Do you think the Ravens would have 12 guys in the Pro Bowl if they weren't 12-2 and the leading scoring offense in the NFL?

The Bills were the only 10 win team with only one selection!

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