Just how important is Sundays game?

[dave mcbride]

2 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

Not on defense, they're not.

 

They are a LOT more talented on offense and have a better QB.  Their top tier D-players are all as good as anyone on the Bills too (Garret, Ward, Vernon, Richardson). The Bills D is better overall, of course, but the disparity isn't as great as the one separating the offenses. 

[row_33]

honestly this is a year for growth and learning, not expecting more than 6-7 wins

 

i look for tangible improvement over the season, a decent little run of wins and some playoff hope in November would be awesome

 

so overall it doesn't really matter big picture, but if you are expecting 10 or 11 wins out of this team, this game is critical

[skibum]

Great question. It's actually not important at all. I would be surprised if they made any effort to win it. Why bother when you still have 15 more games to go? After all, someone could get hurt out there.  

 

Thanks for asking!

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

All games are important.

 

It is against the NYETS - conference games matter.  

 

You can't go 16-0 w/o going 1-0 

[Rocket94]

4 minutes ago, row_33 said:

honestly this is a year for growth and learning, not expecting more than 6-7 wins

 

i look for tangible improvement over the season, a decent little run of wins and some playoff hope in November would be awesome

 

so overall it doesn't really matter big picture, but if you are expecting 10 or 11 wins out of this team, this game is critical

Right on. Lets also be careful about calling this an easy schedule. Perhaps "Maybe Favorable" for a team in transition.

[Chandler#81]

1 hour ago, BringBackFergy said:

What do you think the Bills record will be this year?

We rarely -if ever- have had a more favorable schedule. I don’t mean quality of opponents so much as how it lays out. All 1pm starts, not playing a team who’s had a couple weeks to prepare, while a few of our opponents do have this to contend with. The perceived strongest competition at home. No West Coast games. The AFCN & NFCE aren’t particularly power Divisions and our Division is 1 power team and 3 weak teams. But I’m hard pressed to recall an NFL club willingly inserting 10 all new players on Offense from the previous season (yes, Allen started 9 games) and making the playoffs. Fairly certain it’s never happened. Thus, we HAVE to expect losses to teams we should be better than.  I can see 8 wins by this formula. Anything else is gravy but I’m not anticipating playoffs with a strong AFCW, AFCS, a revamped AFCN and the Pats*.

Sundays outcome? I think we’re further along in our rebuild, but I have absolutely no idea. That’s why I’ll be watching.

Edited September 3, 2019 by Chandler#81

[PlayoffsPlease]

3 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

If they win, they'll be 1-0, and have 15 games remaining.

 

If they lose, they'll be 0-1, and have 15 games remaining.

 

Not trying to be a jerk, but that's really the long and short of it.  It's one game.

You may think that. But it is not a correct assessment.   Teams that start 1-0 historically have a 54% chance of making the playoffs.  Teams that start 0-1 have a 25% chance of making the playoffs.   That is a big difference. 

To make the playoffs you can generally lose 6 times.  That means a weak one loss has used up 17% of your losses.   

[Rocket94]

6 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

We rarely -if ever- have had a more favorable schedule. I don’t mean quality of opponents so much as how it lays out. All 1pm starts, not playing a team who’s had a couple weeks to prepare, while a few of our opponents do have this to contend with. The perceived strongest competition at home. The AFCN & NFCE aren’t particularly power Divisions and our Division is 1 power team and 3 weak teams. But I’m hard pressed to recall an NFL club willingly inserting 10 all new players on Offense from the previous season (yes, Allen started 9 games) and making the playoffs. Fairly certain it’s never happened. Thus, we HAVE to expect losses to teams we should be better than.  I can see 8 wins by this formula. Anything else is gravy but I’m not anticipating playoffs with a strong AFCW, AFCS, a revamped AFCN and the Pats*.

Sundays outcome? I think we’re further along in our rebuild, but I have absolutely no idea. That’s why I’ll be watching.

I am so glad that you said favorable schedule instead of easy schedule!

[Chandler#81]

Just now, Rocket94 said:

I am so glad that you said favorable schedule instead of easy schedule!

? OK, I’m happy you’re glad!

[Rocket94]

Just now, Chandler#81 said:

? OK, I’m happy you’re glad!

Thanks for being there...really! ?

[ColoradoBills]

12 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

We rarely -if ever- have had a more favorable schedule. I don’t mean quality of opponents so much as how it lays out. All 1pm starts, not playing a team who’s had a couple weeks to prepare, while a few of opponents do have this to contend with. The perceived strongest competition at home. The AFCN & NFCE aren’t particularly power Divisions and our Division is 1 power team and 3 weak teams. But I’m hard pressed to recall an NFL club willingly inserting 10 all new players on Offense from the previous season (yes, Allen started 9 games) and making the playoffs. Fairly certain it’s never happened. Thus, we HAVE to expect losses to teams we should be better than.  I can see 8 wins by this formula. Anything else is gravy but I’m not anticipating playoffs with a strong AFCW, AFCS, a revamped AFCN and the Pats*.

Sundays outcome? I think we’re further along in our rebuild, but I have absolutely no idea. That’s why I’ll be watching.

 

I see the Bills as a solid 8-8 team.  If things progress on the O it should go up from there.

They should be competitive in the vast majority of games.

If games are close anything can happen.

 

I'll be watching too, LOL.

Edited September 3, 2019 by ColoradoBills

[Rocket94]

43 minutes ago, row_33 said:

 

since 1964, this is the year

 

why the insane desire for the Browns to become SB champions immediately exists..... ?????

 

big part of why the Steelers have had a handful of losing seasons since 1973

 

 

the only reason i can gather is people are old enough to remember the Browns being the only team on TV in Buffalo and Southern Ontario, so they have a warm feeling still for Otto Graham and Jim Brown glory

 

 

The Browns fell off the grid entirely, only to be reincarnated in 1999.

[row_33]

12 minutes ago, Rocket94 said:

The Browns fell off the grid entirely, only to be reincarnated in 1999.

 

Cardiac Kids had a legit shot in the wide open 1980 season, then the ice fell from the sky.

 

 

 

 

[Rocket94]

Just now, row_33 said:

 

Cardiac Kids had a legit shot in the wide open 1980 season, then the ice fell from the sky.

 

 

 

 

Brian Sipe!

[Don Otreply]

3 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

If they win, they'll be 1-0, and have 15 games remaining.

 

If they lose, they'll be 0-1, and have 15 games remaining.

 

Not trying to be a jerk, but that's really the long and short of it.  It's one game.

But it is also a AFC east game, only six of those, they hold additional importance.

 

Go Bills!!!

[row_33]

18 minutes ago, Rocket94 said:

Brian Sipe!

 

that Ricky Feacher game!

 

 

[billybob71]

All bills games prior to November 24th are unimportant. On November 24th Billybob 71 has decided to attend the bills broncos game so therefore that one becomes all important.?

[The Jokeman]

It's the most important game until it's over. That said winning a road divisional/Conference game does wonders to increase your playoff chances. Losing games like this make it that much tougher to make the playoffs, so to me it's as vital a game we have all season. 

[Jauronimo]

I'd say its must win.  We win and we stay the course.  We lose and its time to fire McDermott and start blowing this thing up before the trade deadline.  I really do not see another option.

[thebandit27]

35 minutes ago, PlayoffsPlease said:

You may think that. But it is not a correct assessment.   Teams that start 1-0 historically have a 54% chance of making the playoffs.  Teams that start 0-1 have a 25% chance of making the playoffs.   That is a big difference. 

To make the playoffs you can generally lose 6 times.  That means a weak one loss has used up 17% of your losses.   

 

7/12 playoff teams from 2018 lost in week 1; 3 of those were division losses.

 

It's one game 

[row_33]

21 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

7/12 playoff teams from 2018 lost in week 1; 3 of those were division losses.

 

It's one game 

 

how many divisions are basically won by a team right now?

 

besides the Pats....

 

 

 

can't lose to bad teams in that division.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

21 minutes ago, billybob71 said:

All bills games prior to November 24th are unimportant. On November 24th Billybob 71 has decided to attend the bills broncos game so therefore that one becomes all important.?

I thought the same thing but

 

Actually ... Any games after Sept ARE important. 

 

I'm a homer.  ergo -   The NYETS  are a bad team 

[TigerJ]

Besides this being a division opponent, I don't buy the  sentiment that early games don't matter as much.  When teams dig themselves a hole early in the season, it creates a lot of pressure late in the season.  I hate to be out of the playoffs in week 15 thinking, "if only we had played better in week one against a beatable opponent. . ."

[Lurker]

8 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

7/12 playoff teams from 2018 lost in week 1; 3 of those were division losses.

 

It's one game 

 

* Saints (went 13-2 the rest of the way) 

* Bears (went 12-3 the rest of the way)

* Chargers (went 12-3 the rest of the way)

   Texans (went 11-4 the rest of the way)

   Seahawks (went 10-5 the rest of the way)

   Colts (went 10-5 the rest of the way)

   Cowboys (went 10-5 the rest of the way)

 

* Division game

 

IMO, the Bills will be better than last year.    But there's very little chance they match those week 2-17 records this year.    This is a big game...

 

[thebandit27]

19 minutes ago, row_33 said:

 

how many divisions are basically won by a team right now?

 

besides the Pats....

 

 

 

can't lose to bad teams in that division.

 

Very well then: apparently the season is on the line on Sunday!

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 minute ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Very well then: apparently the season is on the line on Sunday!

 

I'm with you on this.

 

It's one game. One I think the Bills are gonna win. But I'm not gonna lose my stuff if they lose.

 

[dje85]

4 hours ago, elijah said:

Yards per pass sent out a good tweet about it. 

 

He said with the Dolphins on a full out tank, a week one victory would essentially mean we have to go 7-6 throughout the rest of the season to make the playoffs because of two surefire wins against the Dolphins. 

 

It makes sense and I think it’s a good point, but hard to just count wins like that. 

Never doubt a Fitzpatrick led team in his first year. The Dolphins will steal a few games they aren’t supposed to under first year with a new team Fitzmagic. He always kills it with his new teams year one.  

[Lurker]

9 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Very well then: apparently the season is on the line on Sunday!

 

Nice straw man.   The thread's premise is "its a big game."    Not "it's a season-killer if we lose"...

[RobbRiddick]

I don't like all this talk of assuming the Dolphins are 2 guaranteed wins. They're going to be BAD for sure, and we SHOULD win them, but wins in the NFL are always tough to get and Fitz is dangerous. They might also pull together through adversity and be a little better than people think. I'd mark them both down as wins but certainly wouldn't guarantee it - look at the Vikes/Bills game from last year.

[thebandit27]

12 minutes ago, Lurker said:

 

Nice straw man.   The thread's premise is "its a big game."    Not "it's a season-killer if we lose"...

 

I have had 2 different posters tell me that the playoffs more or less hinge on this game.  Week 1.  Which is, quite simply, silly.

[Doc Brown]

I would argue the two Jets games are the most important games of the year from a tiebreaking standpoint if both teams fight for a WC spot.

[PlayoffsPlease]

1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:

 

7/12 playoff teams from 2018 lost in week 1; 3 of those were division losses.

 

It's one game 

2018 is an aberration.  I am guessing stats was not your strong suit in school. 

[Foxx]

5 hours ago, elijah said:

Yards per pass sent out a good tweet about it. 

 

He said with the Dolphins on a full out tank, a week one victory would essentially mean we have to go 7-6 throughout the rest of the season to make the playoffs because of two surefire wins against the Dolphins. 

 

It makes sense and I think it’s a good point, but hard to just count wins like that. 

and if we extrapolate this out... 2 losses against the Patriots means we have to go 7-4 throughout the rest of the schedule. the Phins and Pats games kind of wash each other out, no?

[thebandit27]

Just now, PlayoffsPlease said:

2018 is an aberration.  I am guessing stats was not your strong suit in school. 

 

You'd be wrong (and fantastically wrong at that), and you'd be missing the point.

 

When it comes right down to it, historical percentages don't matter at all for this upcoming season.  That's the point of my reference to 2018.

 

You can lose in week 1, even to a divisional opponent, and make the playoffs.  You can even lose in week 1 and make the Super Bowl.

 

Week 1 isn't worth any more than any other week in the final standings...that is the very simple point that I was making.

 

Case-in-point: coming into 2018, only 28 out of 223 teams that started 0-2 made the postseason since the NFL expanded it to 12 teams in 1990. Then, last season, both Houston and Seattle did exactly that.

 

Nobody is under the delusion that starting 0-1 with a divisional loss is better than starting 1-0 with a divisional road win.  Some of us, however, believe that the season will not be over if they lose. 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

5 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

If they win, they'll be 1-0, and have 15 games remaining.

 

If they lose, they'll be 0-1, and have 15 games remaining.

 

Not trying to be a jerk, but that's really the long and short of it.  It's one game.

 

 

....sorry, but flash cards are NOT allowed.......

[dave mcbride]

21 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

I have had 2 different posters tell me that the playoffs more or less hinge on this game.  Week 1.  Which is, quite simply, silly.

yeah, that's right. The way I see it, it's a more important than usual game - i.e., more important than the Steelers or Cowboys road games - given that it's a divisional matchup against a team that is beatable, but also because I will not be surprised that we end up battling the Jets for a final playoff spot. We shouldn't lose sight of that last possibility. But if they lose, it is just one game and not the end of the world. 

Edited September 3, 2019 by dave mcbride

[billsfan89]

It's on the road which isn't tragic but if you are looking at the Bills first three games (Jets away, Giants away, and Bengals home) 3-0 is a legit possibility and honestly if they go anything less than 2-1 going into the week 4 Pats game I think it is curtains on any playoff expectations. I think honestly a 3-0 start is what this team needs. Overall I think that the Jets game is very very important and close to a need game if you look at the schedule going forward. 

[thebandit27]

4 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

yeah, that's right. The way I see it, it's a more important than usual game - i.e., more important than the Steelers or Cowboys road games - given that it's a divisional matchup against a team that is beatable, but also because I will not be surprised that we end up battling the Jets for a final playoff spot. We shouldn't lose sight of that last possibility. But if they lose, it is just one game and not the end of the world. 

 

Yeah, exactly this.

[Formerly Allan in MD]

All games are important, even if you lose them all.

[Gugny]

5 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

yeah, that's right. The way I see it, it's a more important than usual game - i.e., more important than the Steelers or Cowboys road games - given that it's a divisional matchup against a team that is beatable, but also because I will not be surprised that we end up battling the Jets for a final playoff spot. We shouldn't lose sight of that last possibility. But if they lose, it is just one game and not the end of the world. 

 

I agree.

 

We're gonna win some we "shouldn't," win and lose some that we shouldn't lose.

 

This is a pretty even matchup on the road.  Losing would suck ... but, as you said, not the end of the world.

 

Getting our asses handed to us ... that would be less-than-stellar.

 

Being a division game, on the road, to start the season ... I win would be fantastic.  But I'm with you, as far as it being just one game.