Just how important is Sundays game?

[RochesterRob]

45 minutes ago, nucci said:

every game is important until you are eliminated from the playoffs. What does this question always get asked? It's a divisional game as well. It's very important

  This.  The fudge room starts running out after 4 losses most years.  This means winning 12 games to take the division most years and 12 wins does not guarantee first seed in the playoffs.  If we go 0-2 (not saying that will happen) before the home opener then it will already be an uphill battle.  The Jets and Giants don't look elite to me but with a lot of new pieces for the Bills it may take a week or two for everybody to find their groove.

[BuffaloBillies]

Vital. In fact, the first 3 are. 3 very winnable games - gotta take advantage early in this schedule.

[row_33]

1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:

If they win, they'll be 1-0, and have 15 games remaining.

 

If they lose, they'll be 0-1, and have 15 games remaining.

 

Not trying to be a jerk, but that's really the long and short of it.  It's one game.

 

losing to the crappy Jets will not be a good thing, another road game after that and the Pats for week 4, the season could be OVER right there

 

 

 

jumping out the window of a 26 story building and telling yourself "so far so good" for the first 25 floors down is a strategy

 

Edited September 3, 2019 by row_33

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

15 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

I appreciate the sentiment.

 

I completely agree that there are games you'd much prefer to lose.  In the macro, however, if you go 10-6 and lose all 6 division games (which I realize is incredibly unlikely for any team), you're still 10-6 and probably going to the postseason...I guess that's the general crux

I know when the division leader has secured a playoff spot that only leaves you two wildcard spots. it would seem that it would be hard to get to 10 wins if you lost all your division games (0-6) especially since you would then have to win all 6 conference games as well as all 4 non conference games to reach 10 wins?

 

as you said, it is unlikely to lose all 6 division games but that's where I go back to the importance of winning not only this week but every conference and division game are important to win as it leaves you very little room to gain that 10 win mark with only two wildcard spots available if you lose.

 

I guess my point stands that every game is important and to me, every division/conference game is a must win.

[Lurker]

31 minutes ago, iinii said:

So if they win this one they will be 2-0?

 

Nope.  But an key AFC contender for a playoff spot will be 0-1....

[Say When...]

• It's a divisional game, that is always important
• It's a "winable" game; any team in the bottom 10-15 should be considered "winnable"; we're combined talent matched to a degree
• racking up "W's" where we should gives us cushion for those top 10 team games that tend to equate to losses

 

i've not looked at our schedule and matched up to the current power standings but if you look at how many in the top 10 we play as highly likely losses, the middle 10 as 'winable' and the bottom 10(11) as highly likely Wins then you should have what we need to make a playoff run, this is one of those "highly Likely Wins" and a loss could have statistical implications as well as psychological.

 

I get that the power rankings change as the season progresses but the 10x10x10(11) theory remains until we're consistently in the top 10ish and we haven't done that in 18 years.

[row_33]

hats off to those already pretending losing to the Jets is no big deal, yeah right!! 

 

 

the Bills are at best hoping for a WC spot, all things considered

 

 

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

Me (every week): “ this game is super important.”

 

wife (every week): “you say that for every game. We’re still going to [insert ill-timed family obligation]. You can watch it on TiVo when we get back.”

[row_33]

11 minutes ago, JR in Pittsburgh said:

Me (every week): “ this game is super important.”

 

wife (every week): “you say that for every game. We’re still going to [insert ill-timed family obligation]. You can watch it on TiVo when we get back.”

 

 

tape the game and watch all the plays and hi-lites in under an hour

 

on a Sunday off I can do this for 7 games

 

[Wayne Arnold]

54 minutes ago, Coach55 said:

I live in the NYC area.  The Jets are a dumpster fire.  This game will show a lot of signs to come.  

 

How so? Reading their message boards, there seems to be a lot of optimism.

[thebandit27]

8 minutes ago, row_33 said:

 

losing to the crappy Jets will not be a good thing, another road game after that and the Pats for week 4, the season could be OVER right there

 

 

 

jumping out the window of a 26 story building and telling yourself "so far so good" for the first 25 floors down is a strategy

 

 

So in other words, if the Bills lose in week 1, their season is effectively falling 26 stories?

 

Well, I disagree.

Look no further than 2018, where the Colts, Seahawks, Cowboys, Saints, and Bears all lost to non-playoff teams and still made the postseason.  Then you have the Chargers and Texans, who also lost (albeit to KC and NE, respectively) and they made the playoffs as well.  That's 7/12 playoff teams that lost in week 1, and 3 of them (NO, Chicago, and LAC) lost divisional games.

 

6 minutes ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

I know when the division leader has secured a playoff spot that only leaves you two wildcard spots. it would seem that it would be hard to get to 10 wins if you lost all your division games (0-6) especially since you would then have to win all 6 conference games as well as all 4 non conference games to reach 10 wins?

 

as you said, it is unlikely to lose all 6 division games but that's where I go back to the importance of winning not only this week but every conference and division game are important to win as it leaves you very little room to gain that 10 win mark with only two wildcard spots available if you lose.

 

I guess my point stands that every game is important and to me, every division/conference game is a must win.

 

I hear you; I guess my POV is simply that every game is important.

[LyndonvilleBill]

Difference between 5-0 and 4-1 at the bye? I'll take the 5-0. ?

 

To get a WC Spot, you gotta win in the division. Is it the end of the world, No. But this one game will make a difference with tie breakers... So, YES, it's very important...

[BITE ME]

It is VERY important. They need to beat teams like the Jets on the road or teams like the Patriots or Eagles at home if they are going to make the playoffs. Jets on the road a much easier task.

 

The math is simple. The Bills need to be 4-4 on the road to make the playoffs.  They have to beat teams like the Jets, Giants, Titans, and Dolphins on the road.  The other 4 road games at Cleveland, Dallas, Pittsburgh, and New England are a heck of a lot tougher.  If they are 3-5 on the road they likely need to be 7-1 at home. Not that easy to do. 

 

Edited September 3, 2019 by FUTURIST

[krf139]

I’m predicting a repeat of last year’s opener at Baltimore.  Instead of Peterman, it will be Allen’s turn to make dumb decisions.  By week 4, we’ll be looking for Barkley to play the Kyle Orton role 

[dave mcbride]

12 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

 

I hear you; I guess my POV is simply that every game is important.

They are all important, but they're not all winnable. The Bills are not going to win in Pittsburgh and they're not going to win in NE. They're probably not going to win in Dallas on Thanksgiving either. You get my point. It's good to value every game equally, but it's better to be a realist. This is a game the Bills need to win. They're going to have to win four road games to have a shot (this is presuming a 6-2 home record, which is fairly optimistic), and this is one that's actually achievable. 

Edited September 3, 2019 by dave mcbride

[Rocket94]

27 minutes ago, row_33 said:

 

losing to the crappy Jets will not be a good thing, another road game after that and the Pats for week 4, the season could be OVER right there

 

 

 

jumping out the window of a 26 story building and telling yourself "so far so good" for the first 25 floors down is a strategy

 

It is a dangerous game to be over confident, especially when we haven't even seen the new look Bills in a regular season game yet. To some, it would appear to be an easy  schedule, but there is little room for error to make the playoffs.

[BuffAlone]

11 minutes ago, LyndonvilleBill said:

Difference between 5-0 and 4-1 at the bye? I'll take the 5-0. ?

 

To get a WC Spot, you gotta win in the division. Is it the end of the world, No. But this one game will make a difference with tie breakers... So, YES, it's very important...

last I knew, if you win the division, you don't get a wc spot?

[MikeSpeed]

9 minutes ago, krf139 said:

I’m predicting a repeat of last year’s opener at Baltimore.  Instead of Peterman, it will be Allen’s turn to make dumb decisions.  By week 4, we’ll be looking for Barkley to play the Kyle Orton role 

That would not only be a worst case for the season, but for the franchise. Here's hoping the opposite is true.

[row_33]

18 minutes ago, Rocket94 said:

It is a dangerous game to be over confident, especially when we haven't even seen the new look Bills in a regular season game yet. To some, it would appear to be an easy  schedule, but there is little room for error to make the playoffs.

 

i realized around the age of 6 (1973 season)  that very few road games are easy wins in the NFL.

 

and i haven't seen much to disabuse me of this notion since then

 

unless the home team has 100% made a run for the bus for the rest of the season or is critically injured and worthless

 

Bills should win this one, but i'll be watching and waiting for the other shoe to drop...

 

 

24 minutes ago, krf139 said:

I’m predicting a repeat of last year’s opener at Baltimore.  Instead of Peterman, it will be Allen’s turn to make dumb decisions.  By week 4, we’ll be looking for Barkley to play the Kyle Orton role 

 

i can't even get that cynical 

 

there is a lot of reasons for optimism here with a franchise QB in town (been a LONG time...)

 

but it's a steep learning curve to get to serious contending

 

and when you are playing for the WC week one you can't drop games like this

 

 

[thebandit27]

14 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

They are all important, but they're not all winnable. The Bills are not going to win in Pittsburgh and they're not going to win in NE. They're probably not going to win in Dallas on Thanksgiving either. You get my point. It's good to value every game equally, but it's better to be a realist. This is a game the Bills need to win. They're going to have to win four road games to have a shot (this is presuming a 6-2 home record, which is fairly optimistic), and this is one that's actually achievable. 

 

In theory, I agree with you.

 

However, as you well know, events in the NFL rarely play out like we expect them to on an every-game basis.  Every year there are wins and losses that you simply can't explain. Just how did the Alex Smith Chiefs utterly dismantle the AFC Champion Patriots in the 2017 opener? Did the near-NFC-Champion Saints really give up 48 points to the 5th-worst team in the NFL, at home, on opening day of 2018?

 

You get my point (and, for the record, I get yours)

Edited September 3, 2019 by thebandit27