Further evidence that Jerry Hughes is one of the best DE in the game?

[GunnerBill]

Hughes had arguably his best season in Buffalo last year. But he is 31. The wall could come at any time now and as we saw with Mario when it comes it can come hard and fast.  

[BarleyNY]

7 hours ago, Magox said:

This is what I was saying in the other thread.  He deserves to get a nice 3 year contract.  DE's still can get after the QB at that age.    Gotta retain him unless somehow we get other people to replace his production which wont be easy.

 

I couldn’t agree more.  I’ve been very surprised that nothing has been done with him yet. 

[mannc]

6 hours ago, noacls said:

I would take everyone of those players in the graph over Hughes. 

The point is, maybe you shouldn’t...

[Rc2catch]

The problem with Hughes and always probably will be is he can’t get inside. He may get “pressures” but a lot of that is just running past the tackle and the quarterback stepping up or around and him getting in striking distance. Hughes could of been super special if he had developed a Dwight freeny kinda spin move. With that said he’s obviously a good/great player but without an end on the other side to crash the right side of the pocket he’s easily avoided most plays. I hated him years ago for the stupid 15 yard penalties (not the ones for slapping his own teammates helmet.. still can’t believe that call standed) 

But Jerry has been a constant here and a good player and IMO one of the best lop sided trades in league history. It will be interesting to see what kind of contract he demands and if they reward him for his service or let him go. 

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

10 hours ago, Patrick_Duffy said:

#refshateJerryHughes

[Chandler#81]

11 hours ago, MJS said:

Very good player. Not a great player, though. The great ones get sacks regardless of offensive scheme and regardless of who they line up with. He needs someone on the other side to bring pressure too, then his sack numbers will get back to double digits.

 

? you, & south ny fan ftm, conflict your positions in your own posts.(??) Hughes universally lines up over the LT, which by definition shouldn’t require double team help. Jerry routinely gets past them all. ‘Pressure from the other side has always helped the ‘great player’. With Bruce, we had the fastest OLB at the time in Biscuit cruising in from the other side and later, Phil Hanson. Currently, Jerry doesn’t have this. The double digit sacks you claim are requirements for greatness, came for Jerry with Pro Bowlers with 10+ sacks each across the DL. Here’s all you need to know about Jerry Hughes; if we can’t extend him, we’ll lose him. Because EVERY team will look into signing him with their very best offer$.

[SouthNYfan]

46 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

 

? you, & south ny fan ftm, conflict your positions in your own posts.(??) Hughes universally lines up over the LT, which by definition shouldn’t require double team help. Jerry routinely gets past them all. ‘Pressure from the other side has always helped the ‘great player’. With Bruce, we had the fastest OLB at the time in Biscuit cruising in from the other side and later, Phil Hanson. Currently, Jerry doesn’t have this. The double digit sacks you claim are requirements for greatness, came for Jerry with Pro Bowlers with 10+ sacks each across the DL. Here’s all you need to know about Jerry Hughes; if we can’t extend him, we’ll lose him. Because EVERY team will look into signing him with their very best offer$.

 

So you're saying Jerry didn't really get double teamed because he lined up against the left tackle?

I honestly would like to see numbers about his double teams.

I think he's good.

He also had his best season ever.

I think it's an outlier and he will come back down to being above average.

Suddenly having your best season at age 30 isn't typically the norm.

Granted, coaching and coordinator changes didn't help him prior, so maybe he's finally found his groove.

[dollars 2 donuts]

58 minutes ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

 

 

Ha!

 

maybe if Alexander told the refs it was OK and he and Jerry are friends they would have picked up the flag.

 

ridiculous refs.

[Matt_In_NH]

Jerry improved on his stupid penalties last year.  The only thing left is to close the deal and wrap the damn QB up for the sack.   

[nucci]

Just watch the Vikings game

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Chandler#81 said:

Here’s all you need to know about Jerry Hughes; if we can’t extend him, we’ll lose him. Because EVERY team will look into signing him with their very best offer$.

 

I think a lot depends on how he plays this year as to what his market is. I wouldn't re-sign him until after this season if it were me and the reason I say that is Jerry will be 32 by the time the 2020 season opens. Now while we can all think of the likes of Dwight Freeney and Julius Peppers who have seemed to go on forever there are also plenty of very good to great pass rushers in the NFL in the last 15 years for whom the wall has come at 31/32. Even aside from Mario Williams who we all remember I think particularly of the likes of Simeon Rice and Jared Allen who were dominant, elite, NFL pass rushers in their 20s and then once the wrong side of 30 were ineffective very quickly. Brian Orakpo (who was in that very good but not elite category that I personally place Jerry in) experienced it just last year. The wall came for him and it came quick.

 

That isn't to undervalue Jerry Hughes at all. To me he is that category just below elite where he will sometimes have elite seasons (and I believe he did in 2018 and the 7 sacks didn't ever tell the full story as evidenced by the PFF numbers). I remember early 2015 when the Bills were negotiating an extension with him there was a school of thought on this board that many subscribed to that his production was a result of playing on a line with Mario, Kyle and Dareus and that, with the Bills already having big money committed to the first two of those and in negotiations for a major deal with the third, paying Jerry was an unnecessary luxury. I never subscribed to that theory and I believed re-signing him was an absolute no brainer. That decision and the contract that the Bills gave him was one of the best decisions the Whaley front office made.

 

I just think that the Bills have to be smart with this situation. Given we have cap room again in 2020 I wouldn't even be against (if Hughes has another productive year) tagging him for 2020 and letting him walk after that as a guy about to turn 33. But whatever they do with Jerry it is critical that the Bills draft a high ceiling, explosive pass rusher somewhere in the first two days of this draft. It is a really good class and the Bills need an infusion of youth and talent at the position.

[Aussie Joe]

I agree you wait to the end of the year before re-signing him  but the franchise tag is going to be near $20m for DE next year.

[Hebert19]

Put someone across from him and he gets the sacks.   Hes a stud.  

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

I agree you wait to the end of the year before re-signing him  but the franchise tag is going to be near $20m for DE next year.

 

Indeed. But if you want to re-sign Hughes that is going to be his starting point for negotiations. He is going to start from $20m guaranteed over the life of whatever deal you want to give him.... 2 year or 3 years or whatever. 

[PrimeTime101]

12 hours ago, formerlyofCtown said:

This is why we need a beast at DT.

Tell me.. When we had Darius.. whom did give us some good years before he got lazy.. how come sack numbers were not higher then?

[BuffaloRebound]

Can’t see them franchise tagging a 32 year old edge rusher at $20m per year.  I think they extend him at $12-15m per year for the next 2 years.  Even that is questionable for an edge rusher on wrong side of 30.  

[JerseyBills]

3 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

Tell me.. When we had Darius.. whom did give us some good years before he got lazy.. how come sack numbers were not higher then?

They were in the 43. Back to back 10 sack seasons Then Rex came along and forced a 34 defense on them and productivity dropped at multiple positions

[Aussie Joe]

9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Indeed. But if you want to re-sign Hughes that is going to be his starting point for negotiations. He is going to start from $20m guaranteed over the life of whatever deal you want to give him.... 2 year or 3 years or whatever. 

 

If he has a similar year this year to last,  I think you offer him $36m for three years with $23m or so guaranteed so the team has an option if they bring him back the last year..

 

I think it would be a more civilised way to treat a guy who has given pretty good service to the team these past number of years..

[PrimeTime101]

11 minutes ago, JerseyBills said:

They were in the 43. Back to back 10 sack seasons Then Rex came along and forced a 34 defense on them and productivity dropped at multiple positions

 

I am sorry.. This is just a lame excuse..  Look.. I am the first one to say I would Love Ed Oliver to fall right to us but Hughes has failed in sacks for to many years to start making excuses for him.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

11 hours ago, KennyDavisEyes said:

Hughes is a great player - his biggest problem is that he often inexplicably fans on sacks where he had QB’s absolutely dead to rights.

 

Its the newer rules protecting the QB. It’s like he’s resigned him self to going for the strip, because you can barley hit them.

 

Not just Jerry 

 

 

Edited April 7, 2019 by Over 29 years of fanhood

[SouthNYfan]

1 minute ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

Its the newer rules protecting the QB. It’s like he’s resigned him self to going for the strip, because you can barley hit them. 

 

 

 

Barely would still be a flag for him

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

2 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

Barely would still be a flag for him

 

It felt like that in the past..  but he didn’t generate much laundry this past season, I thought. 

 

[Stank_Nasty]

Like Hughes a lot. Good player. Glad we have him....

 

but I have never seen such a cult following of the “pressures” stat than is on this board to somehow spin that Hughes is elite. Sorry. Just can’t get on board with that. Elite guys routinely get home for double digits year in and year out. 

 

..... now cue the predictable remarks about how I just don’t understand the details of the game. 

[GunnerBill]

12 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

 

If he has a similar year this year to last,  I think you offer him $36m for three years with $23m or so guaranteed so the team has an option if they bring him back the last year..

 

I think it would be a more civilised way to treat a guy who has given pretty good service to the team these past number of years..

 

I'd try and do a two year deal which is really a one year deal (maybe $4-5m guaranteed money on the 2020 cap) that means there is a penalty for the Bills to get out but not an insurmountable one. 

 

So $26m over 2 years, including a $9-10m signing bonus spread over the two years. That gives you a cap hit of about $14m fully guaranteed in 2020 and cap hit of about $12m with only $4-5m guaranteed in 2021. 

[Aussie Joe]

Not sure anyone is saying he is elite..

 

The “ elite” guys are getting paid $20 mil a year..

[SouthNYfan]

39 minutes ago, Hebert19 said:

Put someone across from him and he gets the sacks.   Hes a stud.  

 

That's not the definition of a stud.

The stud is the guy you put across from the solid player to draw attention.

A stud is a guy like Mack or Miller or watt.

Jerry is a B+ player who flashes A+ from time to time.

He's not bad by any means.

People think that if you say a guy isn't elite you're trashing him.

There are player grades between A+ and F.

 

1 minute ago, Stank_Nasty said:

Like Hughes a lot. Good player. Glad we have him....

 

but I have never seen such a cult following of the “pressures” stat than is on this board to somehow spin that Hughes is elite. Sorry. Just can’t get on board with that. Elite guys routinely get home for double digits year in and year out. 

 

..... now cue the predictable remarks about how I just don’t understand the details of the game. 

 

Yep 

I got told to learn to watch football for saying that he wasn't a dominant player 

I think those people need to go watch Mack, von Miller, and watt play.

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I'd try and do a two year deal which is really a one year deal (maybe $4-5m guaranteed money on the 2020 cap) that means there is a penalty for the Bills to get out but not an insurmountable one. 

 

So $26m over 2 years, including a $9-10m signing bonus spread over the two years. That gives you a cap hit of about $14m fully guaranteed in 2020 and cap hit of about $12m with only $4-5m guaranteed in 2021. 

 

Right.

Good call.

That's what I think he's worth.

[Aussie Joe]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I'd try and do a two year deal which is really a one year deal (maybe $4-5m guaranteed money on the 2020 cap) that means there is a penalty for the Bills to get out but not an insurmountable one. 

 

So $26m over 2 years, including a $9-10m signing bonus spread over the two years. That gives you a cap hit of about $14m fully guaranteed in 2020 and cap hit of about $12m with only $4-5m guaranteed in 2021. 

 

Not sure he takes that deal to be honest.. I think another team offers him my deal..

 

 

[Stank_Nasty]

Just now, SouthNYfan said:

 

That's not the definition of a stud.

The stud is the guy you put across from the solid player to draw attention.

A stud is a guy like Mack or Miller or watt.

Jerry is a B+ player who flashes A+ from time to time.

He's not bad by any means.

People think that if you say a guy isn't elite you're trashing him.

There are player grades between A+ and F.

 

 

Yep 

I got told to learn to watch football for saying that he wasn't a dominant player 

I think those people need to go watch Mack, von Miller, and watt play.

There’s a bottom line here that a certain couple posters in this thread need to realize. The elite guys get home consistently year in and year out. PERIOD. 

 

Now I’m just bracing for the “pressure” truthers to gang up on me. That stat seriously has a little cult following around here. 

[GunnerBill]

8 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

 

Not sure he takes that deal to be honest.. I think another team offers him my deal..

 

 

 

In which case I tag him and let him walk as he hits 33 (if he is productive in 2019).

Edited April 7, 2019 by GunnerBill

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

42 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

Tell me.. When we had Darius.. whom did give us some good years before he got lazy.. how come sack numbers were not higher then?

 

You mean like ‘13 and ‘14 when he had double digit  sack seasons? 

[Big Turk]

13 hours ago, JerseyBills said:

He really is , and very good vs the run and rarely injured .  He hasn't had the sacks but just causes havoc in the backfield on a regular basis , with his sneaky cat like quickness . Off the top of my head I recall 3 separate plays where his pressure caused an INT.

I gotta feeling they trade up for  a DL , give Hughes another great pass rusher and those prrssures turn into more sacks, FF ,TFL and int.

 

He is also the most held player in the league and they barely ever throw the flag for it...

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

16 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

There’s a bottom line here that a certain couple posters in this thread need to realize. The elite guys get home consistently year in and year out. PERIOD. 

 

Now I’m just bracing for the “pressure” truthers to gang up on me. That stat seriously has a little cult following around here. 

 

Can’t argue this point.

 

Good QBs handle pressure, therefore a pressure is more of a means to an end.

 

Sacks are a result... pressures are disruptive but may or may not influence the play. 

 

Bruce isn’t in canton for pressure (even if they didnt measure it back then) 

Edited April 7, 2019 by Over 29 years of fanhood

[Stank_Nasty]

2 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

Can’t argue this point.

 

Good QBs handle pressure, therefore a pressure is more of a means to an end.

 

Sacks are a result... pressure are disruptive and may or may not influence the play. 

 

Bruce isn’t in canton for pressure (even if they did measure it back then) 

Really good post right here. Especially the bolded. 

 

Ive just never seen fans cling to such a stat(pressures) for a player for so many years. 

[MJS]

2 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

 

? you, & south ny fan ftm, conflict your positions in your own posts.(??) Hughes universally lines up over the LT, which by definition shouldn’t require double team help. Jerry routinely gets past them all. ‘Pressure from the other side has always helped the ‘great player’. With Bruce, we had the fastest OLB at the time in Biscuit cruising in from the other side and later, Phil Hanson. Currently, Jerry doesn’t have this. The double digit sacks you claim are requirements for greatness, came for Jerry with Pro Bowlers with 10+ sacks each across the DL. Here’s all you need to know about Jerry Hughes; if we can’t extend him, we’ll lose him. Because EVERY team will look into signing him with their very best offer$.

Nobody is going to offer Hughes elite pass rusher money. Hughes will get paid for sure, but he'll be making 2nd tier pass rusher money.

 

Hughes has never made a pro bowl. Never been all pro. Never gotten more than 10 sacks, even with three other pro bowlers lining up with him.

 

He's a good player, good pass rusher for sure, but he is not elite. I hope we keep him, by the way, but he isn't going to ever be a force that breaks game plans or can't be stopped. But don't think I don't like him. I do like him. I thought he was essential to resign back when his contract was up last time. He's a good player.

 

So I respectfully disagree.

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

I am a big fan of Hughes but he is going to be 32 in 2020. This is more of a wait and see type signing for me, if Hughes has a 8 sack season and gets solid pressure numbers I would give him a 2 year 20 million deal that has a lot of guaranteed money and bonuses. 

 

This confirms to me that we are taking a pass rusher at 9 or trading up for one. We really have nothing outside of Hughes who has maybe 2 years left. If it comes down to Jonah Williams or Burns I will be completely torn.

[dave mcbride]

12 hours ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

One statistic does not equate dominance.

Let's see some other supporting statistics such as number of snaps played, % of snaps pressure generated, number of double teams faced, etc.

I don't think any GM in the league would choose Jerry over any of the other guys on those charts.

 

 

It was my, not mjs.

 

Jerry isn't dominant.

Jerry is a solid to good player.

As I said before earlier in this post, one stat doesn't equate dominance.

 

Hughes wat the best front-seven player on a defense that finished second overall in the NFL in defensive DVOA.

[Gugny]

20 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

Really good post right here. Especially the bolded. 

 

Ive just never seen fans cling to such a stat(pressures) for a player for so many years. 

 

Here's a stat that I like:  Tackles for loss.  These are single season leaders from 1999-2018.  Mario Williams, Kyle Williams and Aaron Schobel are the only Bills that appear on the list.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/tackles_loss_single_season.htm

 

 

[Stank_Nasty]

3 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

Here's a stat that I like:  Tackles for loss.  These are single season leaders from 1999-2018.  Mario Williams, Kyle Williams and Aaron Schobel are the only Bills that appear on the list.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/tackles_loss_single_season.htm

 

 

I have a hard time wrapping my head around watts 39 in 2012. 

 

Thats freaking madness 

[Gugny]

Just now, Stank_Nasty said:

I have a hard time wrapping my head around watts 39 in 2012. 

 

Thats freaking madness 

 

Pressures matter more, though.

[SouthNYfan]

11 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

 

Hughes wat the best front-seven player on a defense that finished second overall in the NFL in defensive DVOA.

 

So what you're saying is he actually had a bunch of help and still didn't get the sacks??

 

5 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

I have a hard time wrapping my head around watts 39 in 2012. 

 

Thats freaking madness 

 

Elite.

 

4 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

Pressures matter more, though.

 

Close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.

...and on this forum apparently ?