Bills draft strategy

[maryland-bills-fan]

Based upon last year I think that the Bills will do the following.:    ..................  The thinking is that we want to get to the superbowl or at least far into the playoffs. ,,,,,,,  Unless you are just real real lucky, the way you do that is to have a number of absolute studs on the team who can dominate the opponent and make everyone else play better,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, Sometimes you can get these guys in the 3rd and 4th round. Sometimes you win the top prize in PowerBall. (not a good plan).  You might get these guys in a trade or FA, but you are paying thu the nose for them and should only do that if your are missing just one or two pieces  (That is expensive and a crapshoot) .............  The way to get these few (3-7?) studs is to draft them in the first round or two of the draft. ................You can fill in the rest of the roster with "buy low-sell high" veteran FA's who are low risk to do an adequate or good job as well as crap shoots for high-ceiling but high risk guys in the later rounds of the draft........ SOOOOO,,,,, the Bills will look to get two guys in the first (or first and high second) rounds who are very high ceiling guys. They will be willing to add in some lower draft picks to move up to get these guys.  After that, it is best player available  highest ceiling player available for the rest of the draft.    Holes in the roster are better filled by young veterans, who have shown they can do a workman-like job and are not going to be a rookie flame-out.

 

[Houston's #1 Bills Fan]

My brain hurts now....

[maryland-bills-fan]

7 minutes ago, Houston's #1 Bills Fan said:

My brain hurts now....

Sorry.....................First two picks, go for pro bowl guys............. After that highest ceiling player available............. Fill "positions of need" with cheap young veterans and even hope that some turn out to be real good. ....................................They went for broke at QB and MLB last year.

 

Edited April 2, 2019 by maryland-bills-fan

[Coach Tuesday]

I think I got a computer virus in my body just by reading that.

Edited April 2, 2019 by Coach Tuesday

[LeGOATski]

It sounds like you're stating the obvious: Draft bpa.

[Bangarang]

So you’re saying our draft strategy should be to draft players that have the potential of being really good?

 

You thought this was thread worthy?

[Chuck Wagon]

TLDR

[Gugny]

22 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Sorry.....................First two picks, go for pro bowl guys............. After that highest ceiling player available............. Fill "positions of need" with cheap young veterans and even hope that some turn out to be real good. ....................................They went for broke at QB and MLB last year.

 

 

Pro Bowl guys like Tyrod Taylor?

[maryland-bills-fan]

9 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

It sounds like you're stating the obvious: Draft bpa.

 Not exactly.   Highest ceiling player available. .......... Consider the choice between a player who has a 97% chance of being a "100" at his position AND a guy who has an 80% chance of being a "130" at his position.  (let's say that there are only 2-4 "130's at that position in the entire league).......... I think they are willing to go the second way and use okay lower draft picks to move up into the first round.   Also, if "those guys" (the freak guys) are not there,  then they go BPA .     (few teams are drafting for need these days)

 

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

OP, they're going to pick you apart for this thread.   ↑

 

 

[LABILLBACKER]

Highest ceiling player = BPA

No need to relabel it....

[maryland-bills-fan]

1 minute ago, Gugny said:

 

Pro Bowl guys like Tyrod Taylor?

nope.    guys like Edmunds.   Edmunds is young , has a lot of tools, no head problem and might develop into a HOF guy. We could have drafted a guy who would be better in his first couple of years.

1 minute ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

OP, they're going to pick you apart for this thread.   ↑

 

 

that's okay.  ideas are not something to be afraid of.  At the end of a day, trolls are still trolls.

 

[Gugny]

Just now, maryland-bills-fan said:

nope.    guys like Edmunds.   Edmunds is young , has a lot of tools, no head problem and might develop into a HOF guy. We could have drafted a guy who would be better in his first couple of years.

 

So they should draft potential Hall of Famers with their first two picks.  I like it!

[maryland-bills-fan]

1 minute ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Highest ceiling player = BPA

No need to relabel it....

What is "BPA"?   The guy who will be a plug and play starter but never get above 20th at his position?   Or a guy who will be a marginal starter for the first year or two, but then be a top 5 player in the league at that position?   ..... A college guy who developed slowly in college,  or who played in an inferior league, or who didn't play a pro-type scheme might not be the "BPA" with the first definition.

8 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

Pro Bowl guys like Tyrod Taylor?

Do you think that Taylor would able to be a Jim Kelly type player or just an adequate stop-gap who might win some games for you but never could dominate good teams in the post-season?

[LeGOATski]

8 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

 Not exactly.   Highest ceiling player available. .......... Consider the choice between a player who has a 97% chance of being a "100" at his position AND a guy who has an 80% chance of being a "130" at his position.  (let's say that there are only 2-4 "130's at that position in the entire league).......... I think they are willing to go the second way and use okay lower draft picks to move up into the first round.   Also, if "those guys" (the freak guys) are not there,  then they go BPA .     (few teams are drafting for need these days)

 

So, that 2nd player has 100% chance of being 100...

 

That's why it sounds like you're still saying BPA.

[Gugny]

4 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Do you think that Taylor would able to be a Jim Kelly type player or just an adequate stop-gap who might win some games for you but never could dominate good teams in the post-season?

 

I don't think Tyrod Taylor could properly wash Jim Kelly's cup.

[maryland-bills-fan]

4 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

So, that 2nd player has 100% chance of being 100...

 

That's why it sounds like you're still saying BPA.

The difference is that the second guy might have a 20% chance of being a "60" and 80% chance of being a "130" after a couple of years.  The first guy is a pretty centain ok to good starter, but never will be a very superior player......  Most of the time, I think that coaches play it safe and go for the more sure thing. ..... I like the idea of taking a risk to try to get real difference makers.   For Example,  would you rather have Josh Rosen or Josh Allen right now?  A guy who played at UCLA or Wyomimg?

 

Edited April 2, 2019 by maryland-bills-fan

[TigerJ]

Essentially it sounds as if the OP is saying you might have a choice between a player who had a real productive college career and a player that for some reason didn't seem to be as productive as one would like, but has elite athleticism and looks as if he might be a generational type player, you role the dice on the potential generational player in the first or second round.  An example might be Rashan Gary, who at 6'4" and 277 lbs ran a ridiculous 4.58 40.  He's strong and has long arms. He is just an incredible athlete.  However, he was not super productive in college.  Some have speculated that his underperformance might have something to do with the way he was used.  On the flip side Christian Wilkins is considered a pretty safe pick.  He's an excellent athlete.  He's technically sound and he's had a long productive college career.  The OP is saying, you gamble on Gary's upside rather than taking the safer pick.  After the first couple rounds, maybe then college production begins to be more of a factor.  At least that's how I take it.

[BobChalmers]

42 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Highest ceiling player = BPA

No need to relabel it....

 

That's just completely incorrect.  "Best" is some combination of high ceiling and high floor - set to whatever mix a team is comfortable with.

Many of the highest ceiling guys are available where they are, precisely because they are low-floor.

 

Typical case is the supreme athlete who for whatever reason didn't produce in college.

Our QB was that guy last year - remember?

 

Rashan Gary is clearly that kind of guy.  Incredible athlete even in a class of great athletes - but you have to decide why he didn't produce in college, and if that's something that can change.  If you're wrong it's a terrible pick.

[ProcessAccepted]

53 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

So you’re saying our draft strategy should be to draft players that have the potential of being really good?

When you put it like that it's pure genius ?

1 hour ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Based upon last year I think that the Bills will do the following.:    ..................  The thinking is that we want to get to the superbowl or at least far into the playoffs. ,,,,,,,  Unless you are just real real lucky, the way you do that is to have a number of absolute studs on the team who can dominate the opponent and make everyone else play better,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, Sometimes you can get these guys in the 3rd and 4th round. Sometimes you win the top prize in PowerBall. (not a good plan).  You might get these guys in a trade or FA, but you are paying thu the nose for them and should only do that if your are missing just one or two pieces  (That is expensive and a crapshoot) .............  The way to get these few (3-7?) studs is to draft them in the first round or two of the draft. ................You can fill in the rest of the roster with "buy low-sell high" veteran FA's who are low risk to do an adequate or good job as well as crap shoots for high-ceiling but high risk guys in the later rounds of the draft........ SOOOOO,,,,, the Bills will look to get two guys in the first (or first and high second) rounds who are very high ceiling guys. They will be willing to add in some lower draft picks to move up to get these guys.  After that, it is best player available  highest ceiling player available for the rest of the draft.    Holes in the roster are better filled by young veterans, who have shown they can do a workman-like job and are not going to be a rookie flame-out.

 

[Tipster19]

1 hour ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Sorry.....................First two picks, go for pro bowl guys............. After that highest ceiling player available............. Fill "positions of need" with cheap young veterans and even hope that some turn out to be real good. ....................................They went for broke at QB and MLB last year.

 

 

I think I get what you’re getting at, tell if I’m accurate. Top picks are used for top talent, no brained, right? Use the mid to later rd picks on players that have dropped for whatever reason but have an extremely high ceiling. No guts, no glory, right? If that’s what you’re saying then I can get on board with that kind of philosophy.

 

Btw, word to the wise, you don’t have to explain or defend yourself for trying to contribute some Bills’ football talk on a Bills’ message board. Too many sarcastic people around here, giving a guy a hard time for posting an idea about his favorite team. Keep on posting pal, I enjoyed your take on the upcoming draft.✌?

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

First two picks, go for pro bowl guys

 

They allow pro-bowl guys to enter the draft? 

[Shaw66]

37 minutes ago, Tipster19 said:

 

I think I get what you’re getting at, tell if I’m accurate. Top picks are used for top talent, no brained, right? Use the mid to later rd picks on players that have dropped for whatever reason but have an extremely high ceiling. No guts, no glory, right? If that’s what you’re saying then I can get on board with that kind of philosophy.

 

Btw, word to the wise, you don’t have to explain or defend yourself for trying to contribute some Bills’ football talk on a Bills’ message board. Too many sarcastic people around here, giving a guy a hard time for posting an idea about his favorite team. Keep on posting pal, I enjoyed your take on the upcoming draft.✌?

Well, your underlying premise is wrong, but I think your draft strategy is correct.  

 

You don't need studs but you need a lot of good players.  Beane has said you get those on the draft.  

I wont be surprised if the Bill's trade out of 9 so they can picked later in the first round and twice in the second.  

 

[JM57]

1 hour ago, Chuck Wagon said:

TLDR

TL;DR: Words ......... More words ;;;;;;;;;;

[Rob's House]

You need talent, but most teams have that. What often separates the top teams from the pack is having guys whose talents fit the team's strategy & who play well together.

 

Based on their approach thus far I think they're looking for the most talented players that fit their vision & will mesh well with the rest of the team, wrt both skill set & personality.

 

For example, I doubt they'd draft Greedy Williams even if he were the most talented option because a press/man CB isn't a good fit on this D.

 

Similarly, I doubt they'd burn a high pick on someone they thought might lack motivation or cause problems in the locker room.

[maryland-bills-fan]

19 hours ago, TigerJ said:

Essentially it sounds as if the OP is saying you might have a choice between a player who had a real productive college career and a player that for some reason didn't seem to be as productive as one would like, but has elite athleticism and looks as if he might be a generational type player, you role the dice on the potential generational player in the first or second round.  An example might be Rashan Gary, who at 6'4" and 277 lbs ran a ridiculous 4.58 40.  He's strong and has long arms. He is just an incredible athlete.  However, he was not super productive in college.  Some have speculated that his underperformance might have something to do with the way he was used.  On the flip side Christian Wilkins is considered a pretty safe pick.  He's an excellent athlete.  He's technically sound and he's had a long productive college career.  The OP is saying, you gamble on Gary's upside rather than taking the safer pick.  After the first couple rounds, maybe then college production begins to be more of a factor.  At least that's how I take it.

         Thank you.  You explained and said it much better than I did.   Usually it takes a while to get a concept sorted out into a clear explanation.  I think that is what they did with both last year's 1st round picks.  It looks like Allen worked and Edmunds (first teenager drafted in theFIRST ROUND nfl since 2007) is still a TBD.  My guess is that if we see them trade up, they are going for what they think is a very high ceiling player and if they trade down, they think there are a lot of similar players and want to get the most for their draft picks.

18 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

They allow pro-bowl guys to enter the draft? 

I think they used to but have stopped it because of some union problem......

 

Edited April 3, 2019 by maryland-bills-fan

[BillsVet]

Buffalo needs to get guys who will help them score more points than their opponent.  And, then get players who help them stop the other team from scoring points.  If they can do that, I think they'll win at least 10 games.  And if they win 10 games, I expect they'll have a playoff team.   

 

That sounds like a Frank Caliendo Madden impression.  Is Brett Favre available? 

[WotAGuy]

To piggyback on the OP’s strategy, my thought is to draft guys with low ceilings and high bottoms - they’re typically average but at least you’ll know what you’re getting. 

[Pete]

3 hours ago, TigerJ said:

Essentially it sounds as if the OP is saying you might have a choice between a player who had a real productive college career and a player that for some reason didn't seem to be as productive as one would like, but has elite athleticism and looks as if he might be a generational type player, you role the dice on the potential generational player in the first or second round.  An example might be Rashan Gary, who at 6'4" and 277 lbs ran a ridiculous 4.58 40.  He's strong and has long arms. He is just an incredible athlete.  However, he was not super productive in college.  Some have speculated that his underperformance might have something to do with the way he was used.  On the flip side Christian Wilkins is considered a pretty safe pick.  He's an excellent athlete.  He's technically sound and he's had a long productive college career.  The OP is saying, you gamble on Gary's upside rather than taking the safer pick.  After the first couple rounds, maybe then college production begins to be more of a factor.  At least that's how I take it.

thank you for translating.

 

It's an interesting debate Gary vs Wilkins vs Oliver.  One can make a strong argument for any of them to be drafted higher than the other two

[fansince88]

4 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Sorry.....................First two picks, go for pro bowl guys............. After that highest ceiling player available............. Fill "positions of need" with cheap young veterans and even hope that some turn out to be real good. ....................................They went for broke at QB and MLB last year.

 

Im sorry, can you repeat this?

[Pete]

whats..............with.....................all..................the.... ......................................... ......?

[fansince88]

4 hours ago, LeGOATski said:

It sounds like you're stating the obvious: Draft bpa.

No foolish man! Not BPA. HCPA. Huge difference.  Jeesh!

2 minutes ago, Pete said:

whats..............with.....................all..................the.... ......................................... ......?

Its........like.........when......the.......reality...  ...tv..... shows......pause......for.......effect......

[LSHMEAB]

4 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Sorry.....................First two picks, go for pro bowl guys............. After that highest ceiling player available............. Fill "positions of need" with cheap young veterans and even hope that some turn out to be real good. ....................................They went for broke at QB and MLB last year.

 

I'd take it a step further and say go for pro bowl guys with all 10 picks! Why stop at 2?

[DrDawkinstein]

4 hours ago, Gugny said:

 

So they should draft potential Hall of Famers with their first two picks.  I like it!

 

Why not draft potential HoFers with every pick?

Just now, LSHMEAB said:

I'd take it a step further and say go for pro bowl guys with all 10 picks! Why stop at 2?

 

You read my mind. Why just the first two? Also, which teams are like "We shouldnt pick any pro bowl guys in the first two rounds"?

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

4 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

I think I got a computer virus in my body just by reading that.

[LSHMEAB]

Just now, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Why not draft potential HoFers with every pick?

Now you're speaking my language!

[billsfan_34]

Hey, I think we should take BPA then get some diamonds in the rough, high ceiling guys. Is that what your saying? That was the longest paragraph ever if thats what your trying to say. 

30 minutes ago, WotAGuy said:

To piggyback on the OP’s strategy, my thought is to draft guys with low ceilings and high bottoms - they’re typically average but at least you’ll know what you’re getting. 

That sounds kinda naughty ?

[The Senator]

 

My Good Great God Almighty, thank You that the draft is only 3 weeks away! 

 

.

[3rdand12]

5 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Sorry.....................First two picks, go for pro bowl guys............. After that highest ceiling player available............. Fill "positions of need" with cheap young veterans and even hope that some turn out to be real good. ....................................They went for broke at QB and MLB last year.

 

Highest ceiling player.

 I like that.

[3rdand12]

1 hour ago, WotAGuy said:

To piggyback on the OP’s strategy, my thought is to draft guys with low ceilings and high bottoms - they’re typically average but at least you’ll know what you’re getting. 

actually you need to do that as well.

 Figured it humor cause i laughed when i first read it ; )
But honestly its valid.

here is what i think since you asked.... Beane does Free agency that way. Noticeable this year.
maybe he has hopes for more under the regimen McDermott runs  potential ceiling raisers.
But i think he knows the guys he brought in  are all serviceable or better.
high bottoms are okay by me.

 Morse was the splash. and a very refined one. exactly what they need at a critical position as player and Allens development. : )
 

Edited April 2, 2019 by 3rdand12