Do you think all these signings point to the Bills trading back into the bottom of the first round?

[LABILLBACKER]

Get rid all the 5-7 picks and move up as much as you can in the 2nd or 3rd round.

[buffaloboyinATL]

1 hour ago, njbuff said:

The Bills are signing FA's at a record pace for this franchise.

 

Who would be the target trading back into the bottom of the first round?

 

Plus these signings mean they really can't keep all 10 picks.

 

What do you think?

You need to clarify what you mean in the title. It sounds like you are saying trade back with pick number 9, but you really mean trade up with second rounder plus to get back into 1st for a second first rounder.

[njbuff]

Just now, buffaloboyinATL said:

You need to clarify what you mean in the title. It sounds like you are saying trade back with pick number 9, but you really mean trade up with second rounder plus to get back into 1st for a second first rounder.

 

That's exactly what I mean.

[mannc]

If the opportunity is there, I think they will trade back with pick 9 to get an extra 2d rounder.  Then I think they will use late round picks to move up and try to end up with 3 seconds and 2 thirds, or maybe move up to grab another late first rounder.  I agree that they won't end up drafting 10 players.

[artmalibu]

The Browns believe there are only 15 players with a 1st round grade.  

[Doc]

1 minute ago, artmalibu said:

The Browns believe there are only 15 players with a 1st round grade.  

 

Opinions are like...

[buffaloboyinATL]

7 minutes ago, njbuff said:

 

That's exactly what I mean.

I know. But some people respond to the title without reading the posts which is why there are some confused responses.

 

Your point is very valid by the way. After filling some of the biggest holes, we can think quality over quantity for a change. I really like the way Beane is thinking.

Edited March 22, 2019 by buffaloboyinATL

[artmalibu]

Just now, Doc said:

 

Opinions are like...

 

I agree, but so are draft predictions...

[stinky finger]

1 hour ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

...good thread...dichotomy of respected opinions make this place work......."in McBeane we trust"...........

 

All are giddy with promise. Count me as one of them.

[Doc]

7 minutes ago, artmalibu said:

I agree, but so are draft predictions...

 

Which is what the Browns are engaging in.  Although the point isn't drafting guys with 1st round grades: it's drafting great players.  Several to many of those alleged 15 will probably be busts.

[Bob in STL]

Yes.  I can see us trading up to try to move up to get better impact players 

 

I am not at all concerned if all 10 don’t make the team?   Every year we draft 6-8 players and then we sign a whole bunch of undrafted rookies.  Every year some of the undrafted guys make the 53 or the PS and some of the drafted ones don’t.    

 

Seems like the undrafted do better than rounds 6 and 7 actually.  

 

 

[LSHMEAB]

They were going to use the cap space. The signings were to be expected. I suppose if the draft falls a certain way and one of the players acquired fills one particular role, it could potentially affect their approach to the draft.

 

This just seems like a total reach.

[MacGyver]

I sure hope they make a selection at 9. This team has lacked high level talent for so long, please don't trade down.

[Sherlock Holmes]

1 hour ago, Doc said:

 

They will be hard-pressed to get Bosa, much less both.

I know lol but a guy can dream...?

I think those two dudes along with Isabella would solidify our O and D for years though...

 

Eventually sign Joey when he wants to come win a Super Bowl from a trade or FA. Same with Kuechly and Mccaffrey. Might as well go full Panthers up in this @#%$...?

 

I would trade away our next couple years I would be that confident in a Super Bowl win next 5 years I Guarantee you lol

[bigK14094]

3 hours ago, White Linen said:

 

I don't get it?  We can''t keep all 10 picks because of all these signings so we're trading back for more picks?

Disregard my post - I saw the clarification too late. 

Some of the signings will not make the roster imho.

31 minutes ago, MacGyver said:

I sure hope they make a selection at 9. This team has lacked high level talent for so long, please don't trade down.

Yeh, so we can draft an EJ Manuel level talent.

[Florida Bills Fanatic]

With our small sample size of Beane's work in the draft, it will all come down to the specific scenario in play as his pick approaches.  If the players that are left on the board don't have a value that is equivalent to or greater than the number of the pick he is about to make, he will probably try to trade down.  If a he sees a player falling well below his projected value, I believe that he will try to trade up.  If this happens to correspond to a position of need, I think he will react sooner and more decisively to move up more draft slots.  Given the fact that we don't know how the various players are graded on his board and we don't know what the other teams will do, I can't profess to know what Beane will do.  If some team approaches him with a desire to acquire one of his picks and it doesn't conflict with his strategy or the his ability to acquire a desired player, I am confident that he will get the best price for the trade.  I can't wait to see it all play out.

 

Fans develop attachments to potential draft picks, good GM's like Beane don't.

[3rdand12]

2 hours ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

...ER Bombers?....playing for "The Jug"?...LMAO........my current friendships/affiliations in ER date back to the mid 70's...thank God for no email servers in THOSE days....

Yep . Did not the Bombers wear Browns colors. My mind is not very clear  about those High School Times But  The Little Brown Jug and East Rochester rivalry was for real.
Those were the days my friend : )

2 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

No. Nothing points to anything. A team CAN’T trade down without a partner.

Beane has such an attractive smile and casual demeanor. People like him.
 he will get some offers to dance if he wasn't already hinting at the Combine.

no tampering of course

[3rdand12]

2 hours ago, Dr.Mantis_Toboggan said:

It makes sense to try and trade back into the later part of the 1st if you are really high on a player, because you get the 5th year option if things pan out.  I could see Beane following a similar train of thought, especially this draft with an abundance of picks and coming off a very active FA period. The draft will be about quality > quantity.

Math currently says YES
blowing up FA like Bills did might have one leaning towards picking     Quality >
and i do
 My historical concern with Bills.

 Can they develop College players into NFL players.
Thats is yet to be proven in my mind.

 

nice darned spot to be in btw Mr Beanes and Co.
 

1 hour ago, MacGyver said:

I sure hope they make a selection at 9. This team has lacked high level talent for so long, please don't trade down.

Allen,  Edmunds do not qualify ?

how about T White

[3rdand12]

42 minutes ago, Florida Bills Fanatic said:

With our small sample size of Beane's work in the draft, it will all come down to the specific scenario in play as his pick approaches.  If the players that are left on the board don't have a value that is equivalent to or greater than the number of the pick he is about to make, he will probably try to trade down.  If a he sees a player falling well below his projected value, I believe that he will try to trade up.  If this happens to correspond to a position of need, I think he will react sooner and more decisively to move up more draft slots.  Given the fact that we don't know how the various players are graded on his board and we don't know what the other teams will do, I can't profess to know what Beane will do.  If some team approaches him with a desire to acquire one of his picks and it doesn't conflict with his strategy or the his ability to acquire a desired player, I am confident that he will get the best price for the trade.  I can't wait to see it all play out.

 

Fans develop attachments to potential draft picks, good GM's like Beane don't.

Dude abides ^

 

excellent post

[Ol Dirty B]

4 hours ago, njbuff said:

The Bills are signing FA's at a record pace for this franchise.

 

Who would be the target trading back into the bottom of the first round?

 

Plus these signings mean they really can't keep all 10 picks.

 

What do you think?

 

A record pace?

[White Linen]

1 hour ago, bigK14094 said:

Some of the signings will not make the roster imho.

Yeh, so we can draft an EJ Manuel level talent.

 

So you want 25% of the roster to be rookies?

[MacGyver]

36 minutes ago, 3rdand12 said:

Math currently says YES
blowing up FA like Bills did might have one leaning towards picking     Quality >
and i do
 My historical concern with Bills.

 Can they develop College players into NFL players.
Thats is yet to be proven in my mind.

 

nice darned spot to be in btw Mr Beanes and Co.
 

Allen,  Edmunds do not qualify ?

how about T White

Yeah, 3 players, 2 of them still have a lot to prove. Need more than just a few...

[CaptnCoke11]

I think Beane will go for more quality than quantity this draft.  I wouldn’t be shocked to see those 10 picks cut in half with trade ups.  

[YoloinOhio]

No i think they will make the pick at 9 unless they can swap 1sts with someone for a quality vet

[jaclynrea21]

No

[TigerJ]

The value in this draft makes it unlikely in my mind that the Bills trade away picks to get back into the first round.  I just can't imagine a player falling that Beane would feel like he has to get his hands on.   To put it another way, I don't think the value drop off from a pick in the twenties to the 40th pick overall is so drastic that it's worth giving up picks for.  If Bean can package some day three picks to get another pick in round 2 or 3, that might tempt him.

[YoloinOhio]

I re-read it and see that you meant trading up from the 2nd, not trading down from 9. I think it is possible. They have some nice depth and have filled some holes. What they need more than anything is blue chip talent. 

Edited March 23, 2019 by YoloinOhio

[hemma]

Might be going up for Allen .... maybe even Quinnen.

 

whatever Beane tries, I’m supporting him.

[Aussie Joe]

38 minutes ago, TigerJ said:

The value in this draft makes it unlikely in my mind that the Bills trade away picks to get back into the first round.  I just can't imagine a player falling that Beane would feel like he has to get his hands on.   To put it another way, I don't think the value drop off from a pick in the twenties to the 40th pick overall is so drastic that it's worth giving up picks for.  If Bean can package some day three picks to get another pick in round 2 or 3, that might tempt him.

 

If he has his eye on somebody like Harry or a lineman like Risner or Lindstrom then I could definitely see him moving up to late 20s rather than hoping they are still there at 40..

[Bob in STL]

1 hour ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

I think Beane will go for more quality than quantity this draft.  I wouldn’t be shocked to see those 10 picks cut in half with trade ups.  

Teams will be bustin down the door to get one of our extra 5th and 7th founders. 

 

Two fours are nice I guess.  After that we have 5 picks in rounds 5 thru 7.  Not a lot there. 

[BuffaloBillsGospel]

I don't see why Buffalo would trade up for a DE, they would absolutely be giving up a 1st round pick in next years draft and as much as I like Nick Bosa, giving up draft picks especially our 1st is a no go for me, I'd actually hate it if the Bills did that but that's me. I do envision the Bills moving back into round 1 though, maybe to get the OT or G they couldn't get at 9 because they needed a pass rusher or vice versa.

[Thurman#1]

9 hours ago, njbuff said:

The Bills are signing FA's at a record pace for this franchise.

 

Who would be the target trading back into the bottom of the first round?

 

Plus these signings mean they really can't keep all 10 picks.

 

What do you think?

 

 

I don't see any logic at all to the cause and effect you suggest.

 

They are signing FAs as we knew they would because of their many needs and large cap nest egg.

 

If they move down, I see them getting one of the top three TEs or maybe Ximine.

 

 

4 hours ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

I think Beane will go for more quality than quantity this draft.  I wouldn’t be shocked to see those 10 picks cut in half with trade ups.  

 

 

Nah. They want to build through the draft. The way you do that is quantity. The way you don't do that is cut your picks in half.

 

The analytics agree.

 

The traditional wisdom is to not trade up at a high cost ... unless it's for a QB. The analytics all back it up. The process of spotting talent is so unsure, for everyone, that your best chance is keeping lots of picks and taking lots of shots. They know this very well.

Edited March 23, 2019 by Thurman#1

[Aussie Joe]

44 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

Nah. They want to build through the draft. The way you do that is quantity. The way you don't do that is cut your picks in half.

 

The analytics say this without exception. 

 

The traditional wisdom is to not trade up at a high cost ... unless it's for a QB. The analytics all back it up. The process of spotting talent is so unsure, for everyone, that your best chance is keeping lots of picks and taking lots of shots. They know this very well.

 

He traded pick 65 to move up five spots for a MLB last year when they had a lot more holes to fill then this time...

 

If he likes someone he won’t be afraid to move up and get them..

 

 

Edited March 23, 2019 by Aussie Joe

[Bookie Man]

How would you feel if they traded up for Bosa Or QW? There's about a 85% chance I'd freak the hell out. 

[Aussie Joe]

1 minute ago, R Y G A R said:

How would you feel if they traded up for Bosa Or QW? There's about a 85% chance I'd freak the hell out. 

 

The cost would be huge though...

 

I don’t want them giving up next years first... think the Bills have been down that road before..

[Dkollidas]

I think it’s very possible. 

 

Something along the the lines of what Baltimore did last year. 

 

I could see the Bills going edge at 9 (Sweat or Burns?) and then trading back into the 1st to get someone like Fant ahead of the Patriots. 

 

Baltimore used a late 4th Round Pick (125th overall) along with their 2nd Round Pick in 2019  to move from 52 to 32, twenty spots.

32nd overall = 590pts 

 

52nd overall= 380pts

125th overall= 47pts 

2019 2nd Round Pick= 210pts 

637points total

 

-this was using Jimmy Johnson’s draft value chart. 

So Baltimore had to pay maybe a bit more than the true value, but at the same time, they were able to draft a quarterback. Also, 1st rounders do have the 5th year option, which basically gives the team an extra year of player control if they wish. 

 

 

I could see somehing like #40+#112+ Shaq Lawson to move up to #29

 

#29= 640pts 

 

 

#40= 500pts

#112= 70pts 

and I would assume Shaq is worth an early forth, so say another 85pts for Lawson.

 

Total= 655 

 

Maybe Buffalo adds a small 2020 pick as well? But I could see something like this getting them a second 1st Round Draft Pick in 2019.

 

Just far enough ahead of New England to take Noah Fant

[GreggTX]

Just the opposite. They are signing guys in the above avg to decent depth range. I think the draft will be all abot trying to find potential 'difference makers'.

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

 

He traded pick 65 to move up five spots for a MLB last year when they had a lot more holes to fill then this time...

 

If he likes someone he won’t be afraid to move up and get them..

 

 

 

 

That was a rebuild year when they had stocked a ton of extra picks to go get a QB. They still had two third-rounders when they traded that one. They don't have that luxury this year.

 

He won't be afraid to go up. He'll recognize that it's not smart. There's a difference. Unless there's some kind of all but insane bargain, it bucks the odds. That's the kind of deal that gets you results like two firsts and a 4th for Sammy Watkins.

 

Look at Thaler and Massey. They did an extremely extensive study on it.

 

As Kollidas suggests above, if they can trade away someone they think doesn't have a future here, like Shaq if they feel that way about him, it would make more sense. Don't expect 'em to trade away highish round picks, though.

Edited March 23, 2019 by Thurman#1

[Aussie Joe]

7 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

That was a rebuild year when they had stocked a ton of extra picks to go get a QB. They still had two third-rounders when they traded that one. They don't have that luxury this year.

 

He won't be afraid to go up. He'll recognize that it's not smart. There's a difference. Unless there's some kind of all but insane bargain, it bucks the odds. That's the kind of deal that gets you results like two firsts and a 4th for Sammy Watkins.

 

Look at Thaler and Massey. They did an extremely extensive study on it.

 

Ton of picks??

 

They had already traded away their second round picks, and they  didn’t pick again after 16 until 96..

 

Im just making the point if he traded up in those circumstances he won’t think twice about doing the same this time, when things don’t seem as threadbare..

Edited March 23, 2019 by Aussie Joe

[Thurman#1]

18 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

 

Ton of picks??

 

They had already traded away their second round picks, and they  didn’t pick again after 16 until 96..

 

Im just making the point if he traded up in those circumstances he won’t think about doing the same this time, when things don’t seem as threadbare..

 

 

Fair enough, "tons" was overstating it. Sorry. But yeah, they had extra picks, more than this year.. Before they made that trade they had already got Allen, and still had another 1st and two thirds.

 

After that trade they still had a pick in the third and after they used it, they'd picked three guys in three rounds. That wouldn't happen this year. They have two 4ths and two 5ths. I can see them trading away one of those, but not their sole 2nd or their sole 3rd. The analytics show it's not a good idea.

 

Last year was a special year. They'd spent more than a season accumulating draft capital to go up and get a QB. 

 

Things are more threadbare this year in terms of picks. And also in terms of bald-faced needs. Every team without a franchise QB has an absolute need at QB. And in McDermott's system, he has an absolute need at the Kuechle spot, he needs a wildly athletic MLB smart enough to call plays.He filled both of his absolute needs last year with the extra picks he'd husbanded. Doesn't have any more specific needs, particularly after FA.

 

Check his record in Carolina. See how often they traded up there while giving up significant value. This is an unlikely eventuality.

Edited March 23, 2019 by Thurman#1