Hockenson at #9 Change My Mind

[mikemac2001]

2 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Only 2 TEs in the NFL last year had over 1,000 yards.  Is Hockenson definitely that guy? Even if he is, does that make the difference between having a lousy offense and a top-10 offense?

 

Unless the answer to both of those questions is yes, my opinion is that you don't even consider it.

 

 

He can help with the oline and the passing game both struggled last year 

 

I would prefer to get a pass rusher it’s so frustrating not getting to the QB and he is just sitting back there 

[Rico]

3 hours ago, CajunBillsBacker said:

I don’t know how anyone would be upset with taking him at 9. He’s the best player at a position of need. He’s projected to go in the 6-15 range so it definitely wouldn’t be a reach.

You don't burn the 9th overall pick in the draft on this:

 

The pictures don't lie.

[OldTimer1960]

6 hours ago, Rad Likes The Bills said:

OJ is a great example. Elite athlete, excellent college production and yet in the NFL he has yet to find his way.. In today's NFL you have to spread the field, why would you put a bigger, slower athlete who you have to teach how to run routes, when you can find a smaller slot receiver who is dynamic in space and can find openings in the defense.. Tight end's are not a necessity in a dynamic modern offense, it's a luxury position that does not hold value over time....

Why?  I submit because blocking certainly can help the run game, which in turn can help open up the pass game.  Further, pass blocking by the TE can help provide more time for the QB to find those smaller WRs

5 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

If they take Hock I will totally understand it and get behind it at 9

 

We already have 10 picks....maybe the bills dont actually WANT more because they have so many players under contract RIGHT NOW

 

MAYBE......the offense that will be implemented next year requires strong TE play....a guy who can both block and catch over the middle....a dynamic player

 

Hock is that.....personally I like DT in this draft more because the talent there is special...but I would get behind this pick and taking a DT in round 2

Right, remember that OC Daboll had Gronk - who was both a very good blocker and receiving threat - in NE.  Think he might want a similar player as a min cog in Buffalo...

[billvernsays]

On 3/15/2019 at 1:04 PM, thebandit27 said:

Best argument I have is this: when was the last time that a top-10 TE went on to have a great career?

 

Matter of fact, when was the last time that a 1st-round TE went on to have a great career?

 

Moreover, who are the best TEs in football in the last half-decade? How many of them were 1st-round picks, let alone top-10 picks?

Heath Miller.

 

I think if Hockenson has a career like Heath Millers we’d all be very happy. 

 

What makes Hockenson different from most of the athletic freak TEs that go in the 1st is his ability to block. I think hed add such a nice element to our offense, a real chess piece that we can use to put opposing defenses in tough spots 

[skibum]

TJ Hockenson, not to be confused with Terje Haakonsen...

 

 

[Buffalo716]

6 hours ago, Rad Likes The Bills said:

OJ is a great example. Elite athlete, excellent college production and yet in the NFL he has yet to find his way.. In today's NFL you have to spread the field, why would you put a bigger, slower athlete who you have to teach how to run routes, when you can find a smaller slot receiver who is dynamic in space and can find openings in the defense.. Tight end's are not a necessity in a dynamic modern offense, it's a luxury position that does not hold value over time....

OJ Howard actually didn’t have excellent production at Bama. He was a 5* recruit they didn’t know how to utilize

 

7 TDs in 4 years... like 112 catches in 4 years.. he was criminally underused

 

still hasn’t found his way yet either

[thebandit27]

3 minutes ago, billvernsays said:

Heath Miller.

 

I think if Hockenson has a career like Heath Millers we’d all be very happy. 

 

What makes Hockenson different from most of the athletic freak TEs that go in the 1st is his ability to block. I think hed add such a nice element to our offense, a real chess piece that we can use to put opposing defenses in tough spots 

 

I'd think he had a solid career, but how many times was Heath Miller the best pass catcher on his team, or even in the top 3 pass catchers on his own team?

 

I guess where I'm going is that TE just isn't a premium position to the point where I want to spend a first round pick on it, let alone a top 10 pick.

[LSHMEAB]

2 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

I'd think he had a solid career, but how many times was Heath Miller the best pass catcher on his team, or even in the top 3 pass catchers on his own team?

 

I guess where I'm going is that TE just isn't a premium position to the point where I want to spend a first round pick on it, let alone a top 10 pick.

Yeah. It'd be a total reach. Is he going to be BETTER than Gronk, Kelce or even Ertz? I doubt it. I just don't see the value when so many top tier tight ends have been drafted after the first round and the majority of the first round picks have been underwhelming. George Kittle is awesome and he was taken in the 5th. I would prefer to see the Bills find a gem in the later rounds at TE.

[papazoid]

6 hours ago, Logic said:

I've thought about this quite a lot. More than is probably healthy for a person not employed by a football team. Here's what I've decided:

The Bills are early enough in their rebuild and lack enough talent at enough different positions across their roster that their main objective in this draft should be to get as many high quality players as possible. Hockenson, to me, is of the absolute highest caliber. He is the only guy still likely to be on the board at 9 that I look at and say "There's a 10 year All-Pro". His talent seems so transcendent to me, and he seems like such a good fit on this team both from a personality standpoint as well as his play on the field and its impact on our young QB, that I'd be happy to draft him at 9 EVEN THOUGH the recent history of first round tight ends is not pretty. Guys like Travic Kelce and Zach Ertz and (formerly) Rob Gronkowski make SUCH HUGE DIFFERENCES for their teams. I view Hockenson as that level of talent.

So "'positional value" be damned, I'm all for drafting Hockenson at 9. The NUMBER ONE JOB of this front office right now is to ensure that Josh Allen has every tool he needs to succeed. From both a pass catching and blocking standpoint and bearing in mind the apparently extremely high talent level of the prospect in question, Hockenson seems like he would be a tremendous help to this offense and to Allen.

Say yes to Hockenson at 9.

 

what he said

[Kelly the Dog]

3 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

I'd think he had a solid career, but how many times was Heath Miller the best pass catcher on his team, or even in the top 3 pass catchers on his own team?

 

I guess where I'm going is that TE just isn't a premium position to the point where I want to spend a first round pick on it, let alone a top 10 pick.

While normally that is true, the game is evolving. Virtually everyone said you should never draft a OG that high until the Colts did. You should never draft a short QB until the Seahawks and the Browns did. You should never draft S that high but it is becoming one of the more important positions. Kelce and Ertz are dominating games. Aaron Donald completely changed the way people look at DTs (and I'm afraid people think Ed Oliver is going to be the next Donald when there is likely only one). 

[Virgil]

Have we even met with, or are scheduled to meet with him?

[Logic]

The way this offensive roster is currently constructed, and with respect to what it seems Daboll wants to do offensively in general....Hockenson would be SUCH a great fit and a huge boost.

Brown and Foster keeping safeties deep means there will be a lot of room underneath to operate. Cole Beasley can be one beneficiary of this, yes, but the Bills need a massive target that can attack the seams and find the soft spots in zones. We all HOPE that CFL WR Duke Williams can be that guy for Buffalo, but it's foolish to assume that he will make the roster and be a successful NFL WR. The Bills can't put their eggs in that basket.

Hockenson is that guy. Add in his next level blocking and you have a highly valuable offensive weapon for a decade. It can't be overstated how much a player like Hock could help Josh Allen's development, and isn't Allen's development really the single most significant factor in this team's success or failure in the long run?
 

Edited March 28, 2019 by Logic

[billvernsays]

15 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

I'd think he had a solid career, but how many times was Heath Miller the best pass catcher on his team, or even in the top 3 pass catchers on his own team?

 

I guess where I'm going is that TE just isn't a premium position to the point where I want to spend a first round pick on it, let alone a top 10 pick.

Hockenson’s best trait is his blocking ability just like Heath Miller or Gronkowski. These guys scare a Defense because they can’t get a good read on what the offense is going to do on a 3rd and 4. 

 

Heath Miller may not have been the best receiving treat on the offense but by him being on the field allowed this to open up for Mike Wallace, Santonio Holmes, Antonio Brown, and lets not forget the running game. 

 

I feel Hokensen can do similar things for our offense

[TigerJ]

I don't especially care if you're wrong, so go with your feelings.

[YoloinOhio]

2 hours ago, Virgil said:

Have we even met with, or are scheduled to meet with him?

Not yet. Beane watched him play vs Penn State. That’s it so far. Didn’t attend his Pro Day and went to ASU instead, maybe because he was already in AZ.

[MrEpsYtown]

6 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

Not yet. Beane watched him play vs Penn State. That’s it so far. Didn’t attend his Pro Day and went to ASU instead, maybe because he was already in AZ.

 

I do think that Hockenson is the kind of guy you hide your interest in. He's sort of one of a kind in the draft this year, and it isn't conventional to take a tight end at 9. If no one knows the Bills are interested, it kind of guards against a trade up. 

[thebandit27]

10 hours ago, billvernsays said:

Hockenson’s best trait is his blocking ability just like Heath Miller or Gronkowski. These guys scare a Defense because they can’t get a good read on what the offense is going to do on a 3rd and 4. 

 

Heath Miller may not have been the best receiving treat on the offense but by him being on the field allowed this to open up for Mike Wallace, Santonio Holmes, Antonio Brown, and lets not forget the running game. 

 

I feel Hokensen can do similar things for our offense

 

I get what you're saying, but IMO it's even worse to take a blocking TE at 9. If you take a blocker at 9, take a LT.

 

For me, the premium positions (QB, WR, LT, CB, pass rusher) are the first round go-tos. Everything else can be had on days 2-3 fairly reliably.

[GunnerBill]

12 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

I get what you're saying, but IMO it's even worse to take a blocking TE at 9. If you take a blocker at 9, take a LT.

 

For me, the premium positions (QB, WR, LT, CB, pass rusher) are the first round go-tos. Everything else can be had on days 2-3 fairly reliably.

 

Yep. I think Hock is a good player and he is an "all round" TE.... but to be a first round TE I want that person to be a game breaker in the passing game...... I had OJ Howard as just about a first rounder a couple of years ago and he was, to me at least, a higher ceiling receiver. Hock for me is on that 1st / 2nd borderline. I think he probably gets drafted in the first 16 picks but that is too rich for my tastes.

[FeelingOnYouboty]

We're a better running team with Hockenson and a better passing team with Hockenson. It's like getting two players in one. He's instantly the best TE the Bills have had in two decades. And he's a great kid. 

 

I'd be pretty excited with Ed Oliver, Montez Sweat, Jawaan Taylor or D.K. Metcalf at 9 as well. It's one of those years where I'm going to be happy either way so that's pretty cool.

[racketmaster]

I was fully on board with Hockenson at 9 early in the draft season but have changed my mind as the draft process has progressed. I really like Hockenson as a player and believe he would be an excellent fit in Buffalo. Injuries aside, Hockenson has little chance of busting due to his talent and work ethic. At the very least he will become a solid blocking and receiving tight end.

 

But is that the best decision at 9. I now feel that the Bills could get better value out of that slot by taking a defensive lineman. The DL is highly rated this year and is a more valued position than tight end. Even though there is depth at DL this year, it generally is harder to find talented edge and interior linemen in the middle rounds. Conversely, history shows that year after year quality tight ends are being drafted in the middle rounds. In fact, there are more quality tight ends being drafted in the 2nd and 3rd rounds than in the first. Having looked at the numbers it seems to make sense to take DL (a real position of need) over a tight end (somewhat of a need after the signing of Croft and development of Croom). Tight end is also deep this year and there will be quality tight ends available in the middle rounds. Bills need to wait on TE and trust that they can identify and target one of those middle round TEs. That would be the best way to maximize value and I strongly believe the Bills are going DL at pick 9.

 

A easier way to look at it would be top end comparisons: Let's say Hockenson's high end is Travis Kelce. But let's say the high end comparison for Ed Oliver is Aaron Donald. Who would you rather have at a cost controlled 5 year contract, Aaron Donald or Travis Kelce? To me the answer is Donald and that is one of the main reasons I would prefer the Bills draft a DL like Ed Oliver over at TE Hockenson at 9. We could stll come back in round 4 and draft a Kaden Smith at TE who could end up being a Jason Witten type (not a lot of speed but knows how to get open in middle of field and uses size and leverage).

Edited March 28, 2019 by racketmaster

[JM57]

This is my #1 guy at 9 now. Pretty much locked in. Jawaan Taylor and Ed Oliver are all right there. Any one of the 3 and I'm happy

[thebandit27]

2 hours ago, racketmaster said:

I was fully on board with Hockenson at 9 early in the draft season but have changed my mind as the draft process has progressed. I really like Hockenson as a player and believe he would be an excellent fit in Buffalo. Injuries aside, Hockenson has little chance of busting due to his talent and work ethic. At the very least he will become a solid blocking and receiving tight end.

 

But is that the best decision at 9. I now feel that the Bills could get better value out of that slot by taking a defensive lineman. The DL is highly rated this year and is a more valued position than tight end. Even though there is depth at DL this year, it generally is harder to find talented edge and interior linemen in the middle rounds. Conversely, history shows that year after year quality tight ends are being drafted in the middle rounds. In fact, there are more quality tight ends being drafted in the 2nd and 3rd rounds than in the first. Having looked at the numbers it seems to make sense to take DL (a real position of need) over a tight end (somewhat of a need after the signing of Croft and development of Croom). Tight end is also deep this year and there will be quality tight ends available in the middle rounds. Bills need to wait on TE and trust that they can identify and target one of those middle round TEs. That would be the best way to maximize value and I strongly believe the Bills are going DL at pick 9.

 

A easier way to look at it would be top end comparisons: Let's say Hockenson's high end is Travis Kelce. But let's say the high end comparison for Ed Oliver is Aaron Donald. Who would you rather have at a cost controlled 5 year contract, Aaron Donald or Travis Kelce? To me the answer is Donald and that is one of the main reasons I would prefer the Bills draft a DL like Ed Oliver over at TE Hockenson at 9. We could stll come back in round 4 and draft a Kaden Smith at TE who could end up being a Jason Witten type (not a lot of speed but knows how to get open in middle of field and uses size and leverage).

 

Agreed...you've basically come around to where I've been for a while:

That's not intended to be a diss by the way; I think more folks should pay attention to positional value over player ability when it comes to first round picks.

 

[Victory Formation]

I'd like Oliver at 9, if he's gone I want Taylor.

[YoloinOhio]

I put this in the pro Day thread but this is why you don’t take a TE at 9. I don’t think Knox is a 1st rounder but he’s a top 50 . Scheduled to visit Bills btw.

 

 

[SouthNYfan]

30 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

I put this in the pro Day thread but this is why you don’t take a TE at 9. I don’t think Knox is a 1st rounder but he’s a top 50 . Scheduled to visit Bills btw.

 

 

 

Are you saying that you can get a guy almost equivalent to hock in the second round?

That's why you don't take him in the first?

(Honest clarification on your post)

 

 

I love hock.

I haven't seen much on the other tight ends outside of Smith, fant, and Jace

If there's some other guys who popsvalmost as much that the bills can get later then I'm cool with that too.

[YoloinOhio]

8 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

Are you saying that you can get a guy almost equivalent to hock in the second round?

That's why you don't take him in the first?

(Honest clarification on your post)

 

 

I love hock.

I haven't seen much on the other tight ends outside of Smith, fant, and Jace

If there's some other guys who popsvalmost as much that the bills can get later then I'm cool with that too.

Yes

[BillsFanForever19]

I remember reading the reason we moved on from O'Leary was that Beane preferred long armed TE's with a large catch radius.

 

If that's the case, that doesn't bode well for Hockenson:

 

[NewEraBills]

Another thing I'd be asking is what are Josh Allen's best throws?  From what I saw on his college tape and what we saw this last season I'd say:

1. Go's

2. Posts from the Perimeter

3.  Digs from the Perimeter

4.  Crossers

5.  Deep Outs

6.  Deep Comebacks

 

To me these were Allen's best throws during his time at Wyoming and it showed last year in his rookie season with us.  Given this data, a picture comes up.  Allen's best throws are perimeter passes.  This is not to say that he cannot do the others it's just those perimeter throws is where he shines.  With that in mind, I would try to get him premium perimeter help first.

Edited March 29, 2019 by NewEraBills

[YoloinOhio]

33 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

I remember reading the reason we moved on from O'Leary was that Beane preferred long armed TE's with a large catch radius.

 

If that's the case, that doesn't bode well for Hockenson:

 

Hes not very tall. 6’4? I love everything about him as a player but he lacks elite traits. Top 10 doesn’t work for me. I think the media has overrated him a bit since the season ended. Jmo 

[SirAndrew]

On 3/27/2019 at 7:48 PM, thebandit27 said:

 

I'd think he had a solid career, but how many times was Heath Miller the best pass catcher on his team, or even in the top 3 pass catchers on his own team?

 

I guess where I'm going is that TE just isn't a premium position to the point where I want to spend a first round pick on it, let alone a top 10 pick.

This is where I am. First round TE’s have a terrible track record of being good investments. We can talk about how Gronk, Ertz, and Kelce are difference makers all we want. The truth is those guys were second and third round picks. I’m not using my 9th pick on that position. 

[racketmaster]

24 minutes ago, SirAndrew said:

This is where I am. First round TE’s have a terrible track record of being good investments. We can talk about how Gronk, Ertz, and Kelce are difference makers all we want. The truth is those guys were second and third round picks. I’m not using my 9th pick on that position. 

I started the draft season a big fan of hockenson and even starts to think it might not be a bad pick at 9. The more research I did, the more I have come to agree with you in that first round tight ends (especially top 10 pick) are not good value. Look at some of the recent quality tight ends drafted after round 1.

 

TEs taken in rounds after the first:

Rob Gronkowski (2nd)

Travis Kelce (3rd)

Zach Ertz (2nd)

George Kittle (5th)

Jared Cook (3rd)

Austin Hooper (3rd)

Jimmy Graham (3rd)

Kyle Rudolph (2nd)

Vance McDonald (2nd)

Jordan Reed (3rd)

Jason Witten (3rd)

Hunter Henry (2nd)

Delanie Walker (6th)

Cameron Brate (UDFA)

Charles Clay (6th)

Jesse James (5th)

Trey Burton (UDFA)

Chris Herndon (4th)

Mark Andrews (4th)

CJ Uzomah (5th)

Ian Thomas (4th)

Antonio Gates (UDFA)

*Tyler Kroft (3rd)

 

These are just some of the top receiving tight ends in the past 3 years. There have been so many solid to great tight ends found outside of the first round that it almost seems irresponsible to draft one in the top 10 unless they are some transcendent talent. Hockenson is not that (based on tape and Combine numbers). He is a very good prospect but not a generational talent at the position. And the TE class is deep this year. There will be 2-3 quality tight ends found outside the first round so trust the front office to find that player. Not to mention we already signed Croft who is a bit underrated and will be an upgrade over what Clay was last year. 

[SirAndrew]

12 minutes ago, racketmaster said:

I started the draft season a big fan of hockenson and even starts to think it might not be a bad pick at 9. The more research I did, the more I have come to agree with you in that first round tight ends (especially top 10 pick) are not good value. Look at some of the recent quality tight ends drafted after round 1.

 

TEs taken in rounds after the first:

Rob Gronkowski (2nd)

Travis Kelce (3rd)

Zach Ertz (2nd)

George Kittle (5th)

Jared Cook (3rd)

Austin Hooper (3rd)

Jimmy Graham (3rd)

Kyle Rudolph (2nd)

Vance McDonald (2nd)

Jordan Reed (3rd)

Jason Witten (3rd)

Hunter Henry (2nd)

Delanie Walker (6th)

Cameron Brate (UDFA)

Charles Clay (6th)

Jesse James (5th)

Trey Burton (UDFA)

Chris Herndon (4th)

Mark Andrews (4th)

CJ Uzomah (5th)

Ian Thomas (4th)

Antonio Gates (UDFA)

*Tyler Kroft (3rd)

 

These are just some of the top receiving tight ends in the past 3 years. There have been so many solid to great tight ends found outside of the first round that it almost seems irresponsible to draft one in the top 10 unless they are some transcendent talent. Hockenson is not that (based on tape and Combine numbers). He is a very good prospect but not a generational talent at the position. And the TE class is deep this year. There will be 2-3 quality tight ends found outside the first round so trust the front office to find that player. Not to mention we already signed Croft who is a bit underrated and will be an upgrade over what Clay was last year. 

Thanks, great information. I felt similarly about Hockenson. Since a good TE would be a big help to Allen, I wouldn’t have frowned over the selection. Upon deeper scrutiny I noticed that game changing TE’s are rarely found in the first round. I agree that he’d need to be a generational talent to make that selection at 9th overall. He’s not, so I’d prefer to look elsewhere. 

[SouthNYfan]

2 hours ago, racketmaster said:

I started the draft season a big fan of hockenson and even starts to think it might not be a bad pick at 9. The more research I did, the more I have come to agree with you in that first round tight ends (especially top 10 pick) are not good value. Look at some of the recent quality tight ends drafted after round 1.

 

TEs taken in rounds after the first:

Rob Gronkowski (2nd)

Travis Kelce (3rd)

Zach Ertz (2nd)

George Kittle (5th)

Jared Cook (3rd)

Austin Hooper (3rd)

Jimmy Graham (3rd)

Kyle Rudolph (2nd)

Vance McDonald (2nd)

Jordan Reed (3rd)

Jason Witten (3rd)

Hunter Henry (2nd)

Delanie Walker (6th)

Cameron Brate (UDFA)

Charles Clay (6th)

Jesse James (5th)

Trey Burton (UDFA)

Chris Herndon (4th)

Mark Andrews (4th)

CJ Uzomah (5th)

Ian Thomas (4th)

Antonio Gates (UDFA)

*Tyler Kroft (3rd)

 

These are just some of the top receiving tight ends in the past 3 years. There have been so many solid to great tight ends found outside of the first round that it almost seems irresponsible to draft one in the top 10 unless they are some transcendent talent. Hockenson is not that (based on tape and Combine numbers). He is a very good prospect but not a generational talent at the position. And the TE class is deep this year. There will be 2-3 quality tight ends found outside the first round so trust the front office to find that player. Not to mention we already signed Croft who is a bit underrated and will be an upgrade over what Clay was last year. 

 

Not gonna go through every one but gronk was a first round grade who dropped because of injury red flag.

Most of those guys are pure receiving tight ends from just glancing it over, hock is a complete package like gronk who blocks great as well as receives great.

He's an every down TE, unlike guys like Graham who are basically big slot receivers.

 

[Victory Formation]

Yeah, I could see that. He's definitely an interesting option.

[BADOLBILZ]

On 3/28/2019 at 6:54 AM, GunnerBill said:

 

Yep. I think Hock is a good player and he is an "all round" TE.... but to be a first round TE I want that person to be a game breaker in the passing game...... I had OJ Howard as just about a first rounder a couple of years ago and he was, to me at least, a higher ceiling receiver. Hock for me is on that 1st / 2nd borderline. I think he probably gets drafted in the first 16 picks but that is too rich for my tastes.

 

If your passing game revolves around a TE the opposition can shut you down simply by putting a *good* CB on that TE.

 

And no TE can consistently block a great DE.

 

So basically a TE is a player who really needs to be schemed into effectiveness.

 

On the other hand.......players who can dominate "on an island" check all of the boxes..........they can win the matchup with the man in front of them..............they therefore make the big bucks and rarely do great ones reach UFA..........first round picks are generally your best shot to get those guys.