Hockenson at #9 Change My Mind

[Magnum Force]

This is tough because if Beane likes a player and his character...I could see him taking that player regardless of what public opinion and the so called experts say.  The thing that probably sways me to think that it isn't going to be Hockenson at 9 is that I don't think he has been in for a visit.   That's not to say if he drops into the 20 to 30 range that Beane wouldn't trade down to get him. As of right now, I don't think he would be our pick at 9 if we stay there.  I would tend to think that Oliver or possibly one of the OTs would be in the cards.  For whatever reason....it seems that the great TEs get drafted in the 2nd round round and beyond.  

[Wayne Cubed]

20 hours ago, Bangarang said:

 

What we currently have is not good even if you’re wearing rose colored glasses. Our d-line needs help and I don’t think any scheme can make up for what we have.

 

And that’s just currently, what about the year after? The Bills have no pass rushers signed past 2019, they need to start thinking about drafting replacements before they are gone.

[OldTimer1960]

On 3/15/2019 at 1:14 PM, Bangarang said:

Just say no to a TE at 9. He may be a solid player eventually but I want more than just solid with a top 10 pick. I bet he won’t go top 15 either

 

We desperately need help on the d-line and that is by far the strength of where we are picking. Just take Ed Oliver and let him wreak havoc on opposing QBs

Finding a good solid starter at the 9th pick is fine.

 

Here are the last 10 9th overall picks:

BJ Raji, CJ Spiller, Tyron Smith, Luke Kuekly, Dee Milliner, Anthony Barr, Ereck Flowers, Leonard Floyd, John Ross, Mike McGlinchey

 

I would say 2 of 10 (20%) were great - Smith and Kuekly), 4 were good at least for a while (Raji, Spiller, Barr, Floyd) 3 never panned out (Milliner, Flowers, Ross) and McGlinchey was promising in his rookie year, but too soon to call.

 

So, if you agree with my assessment above, pick 9 has a 20% chance of being great, 40% of being pretty good for at least some time, 30% chance of being a bust and we don’t know about last year’s 9th pick yet.

 

 

 

[OldTimer1960]

On 3/15/2019 at 2:19 PM, KauaiBuffaloSports said:

 

I would not be upset if we went with Hock at 9 but I am weary. TJ rose up the boards after the combine because of his workout times which always scares me. Fant is the player that I would prefer because he has proven himself on the field. If DK and TJ are both examples of guys who shoot up the board because of their athleticism, not their production on the field. Give me a DL at 9

I don’t think that is the case at all.  Some had Hockenson high before the combine, and his test results were very good, but not eye catching enough to move him way up.  He is valued as a well-rounded TE who is a great blocker and good receiver.  Most of the TEs coming from college are not good blockers - and blocking is a big part of playing TE.

[WideNine]

15 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Finding a good solid starter at the 9th pick is fine.

 

Here are the last 10 9th overall picks:

BJ Raji, CJ Spiller, Tyron Smith, Luke Kuekly, Dee Milliner, Anthony Barr, Ereck Flowers, Leonard Floyd, John Ross, Mike McGlinchey

 

I would say 2 of 10 (20%) were great - Smith and Kuekly), 4 were good at least for a while (Raji, Spiller, Barr, Floyd) 3 never panned out (Milliner, Flowers, Ross) and McGlinchey was promising in his rookie year, but too soon to call.

 

So, if you agree with my assessment above, pick 9 has a 20% chance of being great, 40% of being pretty good for at least some time, 30% chance of being a bust and we don’t know about last year’s 9th pick yet.

 

 

 

 

I was thinking the same thing the other day, that some folks treat the 9th pick like it is a lock to succeed.

 

Up to recently I felt the Bills were incapable of making a 1st round selection that could be productive in the league, let alone a game-changer (unless it was a corner). As an organization we seemed to be more "money" on those middle picks 3-5 round selections.

 

Even with the concession above, I still see Beane going defense - simply because they have not gone after a DE or a DL in free agency, but they did get a veteran TE in Kroft. The Bills could use some push on the DL against the run, and could use someone to groom on the Edge behind Hughes, and the draft is deep at the top with this talent. Does not mean they do not grab a TE later for depth, as I could see them carrying 3 on the roster.

[OldTimer1960]

1 hour ago, WideNine said:

 

I was thinking the same thing the other day, that some folks treat the 9th pick like it is a lock to succeed.

 

Up to recently I felt the Bills were incapable of making a 1st round selection that could be productive in the league, let alone a game-changer (unless it was a corner). As an organization we seemed to be more "money" on those middle picks 3-5 round selections.

 

Even with the concession above, I still see Beane going defense - simply because they have not gone after a DE or a DL in free agency, but they did get a veteran TE in Kroft. The Bills could use some push on the DL against the run, and could use someone to groom on the Edge behind Hughes, and the draft is deep at the top with this talent. Does not mean they do not grab a TE later for depth, as I could see them carrying 3 on the roster.

I agree - I think DL is squarely in the conversation at pick 9 - likely the highest rated player available will be a DT or possibly DE.  Even with the FA signings, I think an OT will still be a strong consideration, if the team feels that the value is close - they have brought in a guy who could play RT, if needed in Nsekhe, but at 33 y.o. he isn’t the long-term answer.

 

As others have mentioned, I think Devin White (LB) could be in the mix as well.  Lorenzo Alexander is still starting at one LB spot and there is no candidate on the roster behind him to take his place after this season.

 

If they don’t take an OL in round one, I think that will be a priority in the 2nd.  If Risner or McGary are available, I think they will be tempted.

[Cripple Creek]

On 3/15/2019 at 9:55 AM, Mike in Syracuse said:

I can't stop thinking that I want the Bills to draft Hock at the 9th spot.    I know that's high for a TE but what a fantastic offensive addition he'd be for our young QB.

 

 

 

 

 

Devin White, please.

[Pete]

If we stay at 9- Oliver, Wilkins, White, Williams or Allen.  Offense got a complete makeover.  Now is the Ds turn.  Get them a playmaker!

[Luka]

On 3/16/2019 at 12:45 PM, BullBuchanan said:

We need to draft DK Metcalf and we need him to be the next Megatron if we want to get where we want to go.

 

Yea I mean, look how many rings he had while in Detroit...

Hockenson would be a great pick. Oliver would also be a great pick. Trading down would also be a great idea. For once, the Bills are in a good place after free agency and not scrambling to pick need because of missing out on player X, Y and Z.

[BullBuchanan]

1 minute ago, Luka said:

 

Yea I mean, look how many rings he had while in Detroit...

Hockenson would be a great pick. Oliver would also be a great pick. Trading down would also be a great idea. For once, the Bills are in a good place after free agency and not scrambling to pick need because of missing out on player X, Y and Z.

Yea, I mean look at how many Bruce Smith, Kevin Greene, Julius Peppers, Chris Doleman, Jason taylor and John Randle had. You sure showed me.

[3rdand12]

On 3/16/2019 at 3:45 PM, WideNine said:

I see a lot of posts from our more objective TBD vets that Hock at 9 is not where he should be.

 

I agree, and feel like he should be in that 15-26 range of the 1st.

 

That being said his stock keeps rising and many "experts" or just folks that rank these guys for a living have him off the board before 15. Several and old Mel have him going to Detroit at 8.

 

We all know that draft value is not always BPA, but also demand. If enough teams like a player and doubt he will fall, his chances of being drafted sooner rises.

 

I like Hock, but don't think he will be in the cards for our Bills.

 

The consolation is the draft is deep with TEs, and we could still nab a good one (Oliver, or Warring),  just please no 6'2" Irv Smith. Concede the guy was productive in college and should find some success as a flex receiving option at the next level, but I just prefer bigger TEs less likely to get steamrolled if asked to block an NFL calibre DE.

 

 

 

is it a coincidence that Lions took Ebron early? and Mel has them trying again. Taking TE so high is going against the grain in drafting. 
that said i hope he falls Bills trade down properly and keep an eye upon him. He can play football , and TEs are not a dime a dozen .

[3rdand12]

25 minutes ago, Luka said:

 

Yea I mean, look how many rings he had while in Detroit...

Hockenson would be a great pick. Oliver would also be a great pick. Trading down would also be a great idea. For once, the Bills are in a good place after free agency and not scrambling to pick need because of missing out on player X, Y and Z.

good post

[Luka]

24 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

Yea, I mean look at how many Bruce Smith, Kevin Greene, Julius Peppers, Chris Doleman, Jason taylor and John Randle had. You sure showed me.

 

Well don't make stupid claims that we're one wide receiver away from going to the big one and I won't point it out. Also, pretty much every guy you named was in the playoffs regularly... Megatron not so much. So yea...

[atlbillsfan1975]

This regime is not taking a TE at 9 or in the first round. That’s a good thing.

Edited March 17, 2019 by atlbillsfan1975

[BullBuchanan]

2 minutes ago, Luka said:

 

Well don't make stupid claims that we're one wide receiver away from going to the big one and I won't point it out. Also, pretty much every guy you named was in the playoffs regularly... Megatron not so much. So yea...

I'm not at all saying we're one guy away. I'm saying that if we want to have a prayer of being what the Bills brass suggest they want to be, they need a top of the league WR talent.

[3rdand12]

8 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

I'm not at all saying we're one guy away. I'm saying that if we want to have a prayer of being what the Bills brass suggest they want to be, they need a top of the league WR talent.

lets let Allen learn how to pass over the middle and feel the defenses  and know when he has someone breaking.. when he can expand his game, and he will we all hope.
in time my friend. all in good time .

[Kelly the Dog]

To be a solid team, as of right now, we need a solid if not stud OL, DL, TE, and LB. We have a top pick and still 30m in cash. I think Beane is looking for a big trade. I don't think you can count on any #2 pick to start and perform well immediately although some do. One or more of those four guys may be here before the draft. I'd love a trade down to 15 or so and take Hock, then try to package and move up to late first for another top prospect. I would be happy with Oliver or Jonah though. 

 

Hock does a lot of things. He helps in pass and run game. He helps Kroft be more valuable. He helps Brown and Foster stretch the field. A good TE in this offense combined with what we have now could make Josh very dangerous. Kroft is not that guy. I still wouldn't mind adding Cook. 

[3rdand12]

12 minutes ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

This regime is not taking a TE at 9 or in the first round. That’s a good thing.

so, Fant ?

 cuz they sure as heck need some.

 Kroft is not the answer.

[atlbillsfan1975]

1 minute ago, 3rdand12 said:

so, Fant ?

 cuz they sure as heck need some.

 Kroft is not the answer.

Could be Fant. I am a Nauta fan out of UGA. I watched him play in high school and college. Heck of an athlete that had a bad combine. Bills could get him in the 3rd I think. Caveat to that is Belichick. Last year Belichick spent time at UGA during spring practice. Belichick has a good line of communication to Kirby Smart.  

[3rdand12]

Just now, atlbillsfan1975 said:

Could be Fant. I am a Nauta fan out of UGA. I watched him play in high school and college. Heck of an athlete that had a bad combine. Bills could get him in the 3rd I think. Caveat to that is Belichick. Last year Belichick spent time at UGA during spring practice. Belichick has a good line of communication to Kirby Smart.  

as long as we might agree Bills have a need ?
 Having no issue where or how they resolve the Te dirth.
I gotta think Daboll wants to solve it as well. Croom may have upside a hybrid rec Thomas....

easy position to improve upon. is Kroft that guy? upgrade ? sure. answer? not yet
If Bills trade down and add picks would you feel better about General Hochstetler ?

[JaCrispy]

People need to ask themselves, if we already had 2 top flight TE’s on the roster, would they still take Hockenson at #9... I say this because I don’t think Beane will reach on a TE just because it is a position of need...he is a good prospect- no doubt, but there seems that there will be better talent at that pick.

[SouthNYfan]

11 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

People need to ask themselves, if we already had 2 top flight TE’s on the roster, would they still take Hockenson at #9... I say this because I don’t think Beane will reach on a TE just because it is a position of need...he is a good prospect- no doubt, but there seems that there will be better talent at that pick.

 

He's top10 mocked by many many people.

He's an elite TE prospect.

[atlbillsfan1975]

45 minutes ago, 3rdand12 said:

as long as we might agree Bills have a need ?
 Having no issue where or how they resolve the Te dirth.
I gotta think Daboll wants to solve it as well. Croom may have upside a hybrid rec Thomas....

easy position to improve upon. is Kroft that guy? upgrade ? sure. answer? not yet
If Bills trade down and add picks would you feel better about General Hochstetler ?

I would be good with it. I am one of the fans we believes this admin knows what they are doing. I just don’t see them making TE a first pick priority. And I do think they will add another TE in the draft. 

Edited March 17, 2019 by atlbillsfan1975

[3rdand12]

13 hours ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

I would be good with it. I am one of the fans we believes this admin knows what they are doing. I just don’t see them making TE a first pick priority. And I do think they will add another TE in the draft. 

 having some faith in the FO is taking some getting used to : )

 i agree with the last sentence for sure

[Hebert19]

On 3/15/2019 at 1:04 PM, thebandit27 said:

Best argument I have is this: when was the last time that a top-10 TE went on to have a great career?

 

Matter of fact, when was the last time that a 1st-round TE went on to have a great career?

 

Moreover, who are the best TEs in football in the last half-decade? How many of them were 1st-round picks, let alone top-10 picks?

Ebron while average in detroit was pretty elite last year. 

[Reed83HOF]

23 hours ago, Kelly the Dog said:

To be a solid team, as of right now, we need a solid if not stud OL, DL, TE, and LB. We have a top pick and still 30m in cash. I think Beane is looking for a big trade. I don't think you can count on any #2 pick to start and perform well immediately although some do. One or more of those four guys may be here before the draft. I'd love a trade down to 15 or so and take Hock, then try to package and move up to late first for another top prospect. I would be happy with Oliver or Jonah though. 

 

Hock does a lot of things. He helps in pass and run game. He helps Kroft be more valuable. He helps Brown and Foster stretch the field. A good TE in this offense combined with what we have now could make Josh very dangerous. Kroft is not that guy. I still wouldn't mind adding Cook. 

If Taylor or Oliver are there at 9 - we snag them at 9. I am not ruling out a trade back in rd 1 for Hock though; how we pull that off is another question. 

Edited March 18, 2019 by Reed83HOF

[thebandit27]

7 minutes ago, Hebert19 said:

Ebron while average in detroit was pretty elite last year. 

 

He had a great year in terms of TDs...his yardage was somewhere around 40th in the league, but yeah, he's at least an argument that someone could make.

 

That said, would you consider Ebron--with his 1 year of elite TD production for a team that didn't draft him--a guy that was worth a top-10 pick?

[billspro]

20 hours ago, JaCrispy said:

People need to ask themselves, if we already had 2 top flight TE’s on the roster, would they still take Hockenson at #9... I say this because I don’t think Beane will reach on a TE just because it is a position of need...he is a good prospect- no doubt, but there seems that there will be better talent at that pick.

 

No I wouldn’t, but that would be my answer for any position.

4 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

He had a great year in terms of TDs...his yardage was somewhere around 40th in the league, but yeah, he's at least an argument that someone could make.

 

That said, would you consider Ebron--with his 1 year of elite TD production for a team that didn't draft him--a guy that was worth a top-10 pick?

 

He definitely wasn’t, especially if you look at some of the other first rounders in that draft.

[NewEraBills]

I think the thing to ask is do we want to build our passing game around a TE or is our TE going to be a complimentary piece?  If he's going to be complimentary then I think the team can wait until rds 2 and 3.  If we want to build our passing attack around the TE position then take Fant or Hock in the early teens.  Me personally, I don't see Hock at 9 because I see the TE as a complimentary piece in Daboll's passing attack rather than the centerpiece.  2nd, with the way Beane has been bringing in players in the offseason, I think the pick at 9 is going to be defense.  Offense has received a great deal of attention through FA.  At 9 I see Interior DL; LB; Edge, not necessarily in that order. 

[Reed83HOF]

7 minutes ago, NewEraBills said:

I think the thing to ask is do we want to build our passing game around a TE or is our TE going to be a complimentary piece?  If he's going to be complimentary then I think the team can wait until rds 2 and 3.  If we want to build our passing attack around the TE position then take Fant or Hock in the early teens.  Me personally, I don't see Hock at 9 because I see the TE as a complimentary piece in Daboll's passing attack rather than the centerpiece.  2nd, with the way Beane has been bringing in players in the offseason, I think the pick at 9 is going to be defense.  Offense has received a great deal of attention through FA.  At 9 I see Interior DL; LB; Edge, not necessarily in that order. 

A big, fast TE who can catch to go with our speedy WRs and RBs would be a great addition - but not at 9

[aristocrat]

How about Caleb Wilson? Second third?

[PetermansRedemption]

23 hours ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

Could be Fant. I am a Nauta fan out of UGA. I watched him play in high school and college. Heck of an athlete that had a bad combine. Bills could get him in the 3rd I think. Caveat to that is Belichick. Last year Belichick spent time at UGA during spring practice. Belichick has a good line of communication to Kirby Smart.  

Jace Sternberger from Texas A & M is a guy I want if they don’t go Hock at 9. 

[eball]

31 minutes ago, NewEraBills said:

I think the thing to ask is do we want to build our passing game around a TE or is our TE going to be a complimentary piece?  If he's going to be complimentary then I think the team can wait until rds 2 and 3.  If we want to build our passing attack around the TE position then take Fant or Hock in the early teens.  Me personally, I don't see Hock at 9 because I see the TE as a complimentary piece in Daboll's passing attack rather than the centerpiece.  2nd, with the way Beane has been bringing in players in the offseason, I think the pick at 9 is going to be defense.  Offense has received a great deal of attention through FA.  At 9 I see Interior DL; LB; Edge, not necessarily in that order. 

 

Really well reasoned post.  At pick #9 you're looking for an immediate impact player and I don't see the fit with Hock either.  I'll be shocked if it's not D.

[Virgil]

At this point, my only question is why his teammate is ranked higher in some drafts.  

 

In what I’ve seen of him, I’m good if they take him at 9.  Less than a third of the NFL have a real threat catching TE.  To get someone that can lock down that position for years to come, I’m in.  Especially if he’s going to be a LB mismatch that requires DB help.  Then he will come off a lot stronger as a blocker too. 

[#34fan]

Look, from day 1 Hockenson helps us move the chains.  If he's anywhere near what he was in college, the Bills start moving the chains AT-WILL.. Which, in case no one's paying attention, is exactly what the Patriots do to us. (Every single time )    No matter who your pick is at 9,  you can't ignore that type of ability on draft day.

 

 

[3rdand12]

On 3/17/2019 at 5:02 PM, JaCrispy said:

People need to ask themselves, if we already had 2 top flight TE’s on the roster, would they still take Hockenson at #9... I say this because I don’t think Beane will reach on a TE just because it is a position of need...he is a good prospect- no doubt, but there seems that there will be better talent at that pick.

I hope Beane takes the best player he is able to. after trading out of nine lol. be cool if it was this kid.
I find it very hard to swallow drafting a TE at nine . regardless of how well i might imagine he fits Bills system.
Oliver is a better fit even perhaps ?

8 hours ago, Hebert19 said:

Ebron while average in detroit was pretty elite last year. 

i mentioned earlier here he was finally showing up : )
we might prefer a day one menace at nine

[Mat68]

5 hours ago, NewEraBills said:

I think the thing to ask is do we want to build our passing game around a TE or is our TE going to be a complimentary piece?  If he's going to be complimentary then I think the team can wait until rds 2 and 3.  If we want to build our passing attack around the TE position then take Fant or Hock in the early teens.  Me personally, I don't see Hock at 9 because I see the TE as a complimentary piece in Daboll's passing attack rather than the centerpiece.  2nd, with the way Beane has been bringing in players in the offseason, I think the pick at 9 is going to be defense.  Offense has received a great deal of attention through FA.  At 9 I see Interior DL; LB; Edge, not necessarily in that order. 

You determine this by the players you have on the roster.  If your Te consistently gets open and makes plays you build your passing attack around his strengths.  

[Rico]

I’d love to see Murray and Haskins off the board early and then the Lions taking Hock at #8. 

Edited March 19, 2019 by Rico

[Magnum Force]

Most of the mock drafts I have seen now have Hock going at pick 7 to the Jags or pick 12 to the Packers. I am not saying mock drafts are an exact science but it seems that Hock’s value is climbing and that a trade down might not work if that is who we are targeting.. 

[BillsFan1988]

14 hours ago, Reed83HOF said:

If Taylor or Oliver are there at 9 - we snag them at 9. I am not ruling out a trade back in rd 1 for Hock though; how we pull that off is another question. 

Everyone keeps saying trade back and take Hock . It's not happening he won't be there. The Pack will take him at #12 no doubt about it.