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How can we not be all in on Metcalf now?


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I think it’s gonna be hard to pass on a DL at pick 9. You’re basically getting a top 5 talent at DL in this draft at 9.  If Murray, Haskins, and Devin White go before us as predicted, one of Bosa, Q Williams, Allen, Gary, Oliver, and Wilkins will be there.  Those guys are top 5 picks in almost any other year.  

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12 hours ago, Mat68 said:

His agility numbers are very similar to Randy Moss and Metcalf has much better explosive numbers, vertical and broad jump.  Tall guys dont excel in the shuttle or 3 cone that's why many including Calvin Johnson decline them.  People blasting Metcalf and tout Harry when he ran much slower and didn't test his agility to protect his draft status is funny.  As an outside Metcalf has prototypical size.  His 40 shows when you watch him.  He has another gear on deep passes.  He routinely has seperation on his intermediate and beyond routes.  I want to enhance Allen's biggest gift.  His arm. Give him a rare deep threat talent.  That opens things up for all the other aspects of the passing game. 

 

Moss had insane production at Marshall.. he was a freak on the field...  What has Metcalf done besides run a nice 40?

2 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

I think it’s gonna be hard to pass on a DL at pick 9. You’re basically getting a top 5 talent at DL in this draft at 9.  If Murray, Haskins, and Devin White go before us as predicted, one of Bosa, Q Williams, Allen, Gary, Oliver, and Wilkins will be there.  Those guys are top 5 picks in almost any other year.  

 

Agreed, it's one of those guys if we stay put.

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12 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

 

Thats not remotely true. CJ was incredibly productive in college and was excellent running short and intermediate routes due to his cutting ability.  Metcalf can boast none of that.

 

Unfortunately we'll never know how the season would have turned out had Metcalf not gotten hurt, but having said that, if we extrapolate Metcalf's stats through 6.25 games out to the 14 that Calvin Johnson played in his final year, Metcalf was on pace for 1,275 yards and 11 TDs. Calvin put up 1,202 yards and 15 TDs in his final year. Metcalf's dominator rating (basically picture Ole Miss' total receiving yards and TDs as a pie; dominator rating is how large Metcalf's slice of the pie is) is also above average (32.1%, the 58th percentile), though it pales in comparison to Calvin's astounding 55.3% (keeping in mind that 45% is considered to be basically legendary). Metcalf's breakout age (the age in which a player first broke over 20% dominator rating) is also slightly lower than Calvin's was, which is generally a good sign (Metcalf is in the 72nd percentile there).

 

So with that said, Metcalf is ahead of the curve in terms of how early in his career he became a productive player and was also on pace to put up a season on par with Calvin's best season at Georgia Tech before his neck injury (though they produced in totally different ways, as Metcalf was on pace to put up more yards than Calvin on 18 fewer receptions.

 

For reference, here's Metcalf compared to some of the guys he's been compared to (David Boston and Randy Moss are unfortunately not in the database):

image.png.37984d62461340387313fa022a9ba779.png

And here's Metcalf compared to the rest of the incoming class:

wSvv3qD.jpg

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46 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

 

Not sure who Brett Kollman is but isn’t that kinda the concern? A body that big and stiff is having a time planting and cutting at 21 years old. How’s he going to look going forward? I think a lot of how teams value him will be from what he said in his meetings.

 

No doubt they wouldn’t want him getting any bigger and would probably have a different workout program entirely. 

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2 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

 

And yet no 1st round pick on their SB winning OL. 

 

But there are people that think Jonah Williams will come in and “fix” the OL?  Where at OG because he isn’t a Tackle in the NFL. 

 

But the patriots, In the midst of the greatest 20 year run in nfl history.....drafted an OL an the first rd......and they HAVE Dante Scarnecchia coaching the OL.  Proving that even the best team in history knows that they need talented offensive linemen, not just a good coach.  

 

Say w/e you want bro.  I’m done with this.  It’s painfully obvious that your grasping at straws and throwing things at the wall and hoping that they stick.  

 

The steelers draft OL in the first rd.  

 

The ravens draft OL in the first.  

 

The packers used to.  Then they stopped.  Now their OL sucks and they they can’t win with an all time QB.

 

Does a winning OL HAVE to be made up of high draft picks?  No.  

 

Can you win Super Bowls while drafting OL in the 1st rd?  Obviously, yes.  

 

Not every team can have Dante Scarnecchia or an OL coach with similar success.  Some teams actually need talented players along the OL

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17 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Straight line speed and freakish strength only go so far. Case in point David Boston. I want a guy with fast twitch muscles and the ability to cut and get open. Foster can be our fly guy. Metcalf is tempting but his 3 cone was poor. Isabella in the 2nd round? What are DK's hands like? What's his drop ratio?

I like Isabella. I'd rather get him in the third, but he may not last that long. N'keal Harry and Kelvin Harmon are two wrs I'd also think about in the second. If we stay at #9, I really think there's going to be an elite DL fella available. Devin White is going to be a very good lb as well, but he'll probably be gone before our pick. Hopefully we grab a few good free agent olinemen. In spite of our need to massively upgrade the offense and build around Allen, that's not where the top of the draft talent is, imo.

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13 minutes ago, CommonCents said:

Not sure who Brett Kollman is but isn’t that kinda the concern? A body that big and stiff is having a time planting and cutting at 21 years old. How’s he going to look going forward? I think a lot of how teams value him will be from what he said in his meetings.

 

No doubt they wouldn’t want him getting any bigger and would probably have a different workout program entirely. 

Moss produced the same numbers in his agility drills.  Large wrs dont do as well in those drills.  By the looks of if it his training was concentrated on explosive moves.  That's why he did so well in the 40, vertical, and broad jump. 

 

In terms of Wr.  What I think Buffalo needs most is an elite deep threat to pair with Allen's arm.  In Fa you have Jon Brown, Jj Nelson, breshad Perriman, and possibly Desaun Jackson or John Ross.  I would not call any of them elite, and Jackson isnt due to his age.  In the draft the only other guy besides Metcalf with similar deep threat potential is Brown.  For me his size is a concern but I do like him alot.

 

The reason I come back to Metcalf is he is significantly bigger than most of the other guys.  The height speed combo is rare, paired with his ability to track the deep ball.  I'm not saying he will be the next great Wr, but paired with Allen he could be.  

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6 minutes ago, NewEra said:

 

But the patriots, In the midst of the greatest 20 year run in nfl history.....drafted an OL an the first rd......and they HAVE Dante Scarnecchia coaching the OL.  Proving that even the best team in history knows that they need talented offensive linemen, not just a good coach.  

 

Say w/e you want bro.  I’m done with this.  It’s painfully obvious that your grasping at straws and throwing things at the wall and hoping that they stick.  

 

The steelers draft OL in the first rd.  

 

The ravens draft OL in the first.  

 

The packers used to.  Then they stopped.  Now their OL sucks and they they can’t win with an all time QB.

 

Does a winning OL HAVE to be made up of high draft picks?  No.  

 

Can you win Super Bowls while drafting OL in the 1st rd?  Obviously, yes.  

 

Not every team can have Dante Scarnecchia or an OL coach with similar success.  Some teams actually need talented players along the OL

 

I think the biggest takeaway regarding building an OL is that there's no one way to do it right.

 

Teams like Dallas use multiple first-round picks over several years to accumulate talent, and it works.

 

Teams like NE use multiple mid-round picks over several years to accumulate talent, and it works.

 

Teams like the Rams identify key FAs in a single offseason that fit their scheme (Whitworth, Sullivan, Blythe) and sign them to big contracts, and it works.

 

The important thing is that the team identify talented players that fit their scheme, and invest whatever is necessary to get them in the fold.

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2 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Moss produced the same numbers in his agility drills.  Large wrs dont do as well in those drills.  By the looks of if it his training was concentrated on explosive moves.  That's why he did so well in the 40, vertical, and broad jump. 

 

In terms of Wr.  What I think Buffalo needs most is an elite deep threat to pair with Allen's arm.  In Fa you have Jon Brown, Jj Nelson, breshad Perriman, and possibly Desaun Jackson or John Ross.  I would not call any of them elite, and Jackson isnt due to his age.  In the draft the only other guy besides Metcalf with similar deep threat potential is Brown.  For me his size is a concern but I do like him alot.

 

The reason I come back to Metcalf is he is significantly bigger than most of the other guys.  The height speed combo is rare, paired with his ability to track the deep ball.  I'm not saying he will be the next great Wr, but paired with Allen he could be.  

 

This is what I've been saying all along.  When you factor in the strength of our QB, namely throwing the ball down the field, then you find a WR that fits what your QB does well and Metcalf is that guy in this draft on the perimeter.  If we had Brady at QB, I would be shouting for Isabella, Brown or some other quick twitch guy that's is an A+ route runner.  But that's not who we have at QB.  We have a guy with a superior arm, that likes to throw the football down the field.  We need to accentuate that.   The neck is certainly a concern and I would be asking around about his timetable for playing.  If he cannot play in July/August then yes, you pass on him at 9.  If he can, to me you take him IF he's there.

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1 hour ago, BuffAlone said:

Yeah, if you've noticed ANY of my posts,  Im not that guy. In fact, I have said no way to Jonah, who could very well be a Gaurd, at #9. In fact, he's the 4th-5th OL on my list and I think may drop to the 2nd round. That said, if he's there at 40, and is BPA at the time, I wouldn't hate it. We need help everywhere, including G. No way do I take him at 9. I wouldn't necessarily be overjoyed at taking Taylor or Dillard or Ford at #9, but if they are BPA at #9 and fills an immediate need, I'm ok with it. Beane has already said he didn't feel there were any "elite" oline at 9, but if the combine changed his opinion at all, I trust him. He also has said their opinion is that they do not believe in the notion of a true "#1" WR in today's NFL. So I'd be hard pressed to believe they go DK at 9. They believe its more about matchups these days. FWIW.  Sstrength at the top of this draft is D-line. Would even throw in Devin White to that mix. Kyle's replacement is there for the taking and meets value/need. I think that's where they go and I'd be happy happy happy to grab Oliver,Allen, or even Wilkinson at 9. Just my take on it...

A GM that will do the coaches wants states their is no True No 1 WR in the NFL anymore.  Go figure.  It will be a Defensive player I am sure.  

Just now, thebandit27 said:

 

Nope...you said that they let Solder walk for a 5th rounder; they didn't. Their plan was to replace him with a first-round pick.

Nope I said their SB winning line had No 1st round pick.  Was I wrong?

I am not against fixing the OL.  I just would like it addressed in UFA with already developed OL.  Instead of spinning Wheels on a position that is Underdeveloped in College and with the CBA takes alot longer (if ever) to fix those under developed OL.  

 

Fix the OL in UFA

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12 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

I think the biggest takeaway regarding building an OL is that there's no one way to do it right.

 

Teams like Dallas use multiple first-round picks over several years to accumulate talent, and it works.

 

Teams like NE use multiple mid-round picks over several years to accumulate talent, and it works.

 

Teams like the Rams identify key FAs in a single offseason that fit their scheme (Whitworth, Sullivan, Blythe) and sign them to big contracts, and it works.

 

The important thing is that the team identify talented players that fit their scheme, and invest whatever is necessary to get them in the fold.

Good post. I think this is spot on. Regardless of where or how we do it, we all can agree we need to drastically upgrade the O-line

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3 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

 

And yet no 1st round pick on their SB winning OL. 

 

But there are people that think Jonah Williams will come in and “fix” the OL?  Where at OG because he isn’t a Tackle in the NFL. 

Um ... don't look at just the Pats. Look at the other playoff teams this year (plus Pittsburgh):

 

NO's o-line: 2 first rounders, 1 second rounder, two thirds

KC: 2 first rounders, 2 second rounders, and a UDFA

LAR: 3 second rounders, 1 sixth rounder, and 1 seventh rounder

Chicago: 1 first, 2 seconds, 1 fourth, and 1 seventh
Dallas: 2 firsts, 1 second, 1 fourth, and La'el Collins, a first round talent

Philly: 2 firsts (they traded a first for Peters), 2 thirds, 1 sixth

Seattle: 3 firsts, 1 second, and 1 seventh

Baltimore: 1 first, 2 thirds, 1 fourth, and a UDFA

Indy: 3 firsts, 1 second, and 1 fourth

LAC: 2 firsts, 2 thirds, and a sixth

Hou: 1 second, 1 fourth, 1 fifth, 1 sixth, and a UDFA (NOTE: HOUSTON STANDS OUT BECAUSE THEIR LINE WAS AWFUL AND BASICALLY COST THEM A BYE) 

*Pitt: 2 firsts and 3 UDFAs (*(I'm including them here because a) they had an elite offense, b) are almost always in the playoffs, and c) lost only 6 games)

 

So, basically, you're not correct.

Edited by dave mcbride
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4 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

Nope I said their SB winning line had No 1st round pick.  Was I wrong?

I am not against fixing the OL.  I just would like it addressed in UFA with already developed OL.  Instead of spinning Wheels on a position that is Underdeveloped in College and with the CBA takes alot longer (if ever) to fix those under developed OL.  

 

Fix the OL in UFA

 

That's not what the post I responded to said, and as I said, there are many ways to build the line.  Regardless, I'm all for fixing the OL in FA.  There's enough volume at guard and tackle to do so.

 

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6 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

A GM that will do the coaches wants states their is no True No 1 WR in the NFL anymore.  Go figure.  It will be a Defensive player I am sure.  

Nope I said their SB winning line had No 1st round pick.  Was I wrong?

I am not against fixing the OL.  I just would like it addressed in UFA with already developed OL.  Instead of spinning Wheels on a position that is Underdeveloped in College and with the CBA takes alot longer (if ever) to fix those under developed OL.  

 

Fix the OL in UFA

You are quite wrong in the global sense. See above.

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Just now, dave mcbride said:

Um ... don't look at just the Pats. Look at the other playoff teams this year (plus Pittsburgh):

 

NO's o-line: 2 first rounders, 1 second rounder, two thirds

KC: 2 first rounders, 2 second rounders, and a UDFA

LAR: 3 second rounders, 1 sixth rounder, and 1 seventh rounder

Chicago: 1 first, 2 seconds, 1 fourth, and 1 seventh
Dallas: 2 firsts, 1 second, 1 fourth, and La'el Collins, a first round talent

Philly: 2 firsts (they traded a first for Peters), 2 thirds, 1 sixth

Seattle: 3 firsts, 1 second, and 1 seventh

Baltimore: 1 first, 2 thirds, 1 fourth, and a UDFA

Indy: 3 firsts, 1 second, and 1 fourth

LAC: 2 firsts, 2 thirds, and a sixth

Hou: 1 second, 1 fourth, 1 fifth, 1 sixth, and a UDFA (NOTE: HOUSTON STANDS OUT BECAUSE THEIR LINE WAS AWFUL AND BASICALLY COST THEM A BYE) 

*Pitt (I'm including them here because a) they had an elite offense, b) are almost always in the playoffs, and c) lost only 6 games): 2 firsts and 3 UDFAs

 

So, basically, you're not correct.

"And yet no 1st round pick on their SB winning OL."

 

So, tell m again how I am incorrect with my above statement

Just now, dave mcbride said:

You are quite wrong in the global sense. See above.

 

Ok if I am incorrect name me ONE just ONE OL in this first round that will "fix" the Bills OL?

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29 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

I think the biggest takeaway regarding building an OL is that there's no one way to do it right.

 

Teams like Dallas use multiple first-round picks over several years to accumulate talent, and it works.

 

Teams like NE use multiple mid-round picks over several years to accumulate talent, and it works.

 

Teams like the Rams identify key FAs in a single offseason that fit their scheme (Whitworth, Sullivan, Blythe) and sign them to big contracts, and it works.

 

The important thing is that the team identify talented players that fit their scheme, and invest whatever is necessary to get them in the fold.

Right. If you don’t have DS you might burn higher picks, even the pats used a 1st on a guard in attempt to get it right. 

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1 minute ago, CommonCents said:

Right. If you don’t have DS you might burn higher picks, even the pats used a 1st on a guard in attempt to get it right. 

 

I believe the plan was to play Wynn at LT, but he got hurt.

 

I also believe that's why they haven't made much of an effort to re-sign Trent Brown.

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15 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

"And yet no 1st round pick on their SB winning OL."

 

So, tell m again how I am incorrect with my above statement

 

Ok if I am incorrect name me ONE just ONE OL in this first round that will "fix" the Bills OL?

You are arguing like a lawyer. My larger point is that good teams invest in offensive lines, and that really good offensive linemen who consistently produce tend to be early-round investments more often than not. Moreover, 25 percent of the Patriots' last 12 first round picks have been offensive linemen. 


Rather than repeating, ad nauseum, "Patriots 2018, Patriots 2018, Patriots 2018," why not engage the broader argument and larger context? The top teams in offensive DVOA mostly invested heavily in offensive line: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamoff2018 .

 

NE did in fact have a first rounder on their o-line in both their 2014 and 2016 SB seasons too. 

1 minute ago, thebandit27 said:

 

I believe the plan was to play Wynn at LT, but he got hurt.

 

I also believe that's why they haven't made much of an effort to re-sign Trent Brown.

That is correct.

Edited by dave mcbride
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1 minute ago, thebandit27 said:

 

I believe the plan was to play Wynn at LT, but he got hurt.

 

I also believe that's why they haven't made much of an effort to re-sign Trent Brown.

Yeah that was the talk around here, it’s a bold move if they let Brown walk but again, DS. Blah. 

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35 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

I think the biggest takeaway regarding building an OL is that there's no one way to do it right.

 

Teams like Dallas use multiple first-round picks over several years to accumulate talent, and it works.

 

Teams like NE use multiple mid-round picks over several years to accumulate talent, and it works.

 

Teams like the Rams identify key FAs in a single offseason that fit their scheme (Whitworth, Sullivan, Blythe) and sign them to big contracts, and it works.

 

The important thing is that the team identify talented players that fit their scheme, and invest whatever is necessary to get them in the fold.

There is no one way to do it right, but it does seem to be the case that getting early round talent -- whether you drafted them or another team did -- is one of the keys to success. You may have to pay a fair bit in FA for another team's first rounder, but it's typically a pretty safe investment. 

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18 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

"And yet no 1st round pick on their SB winning OL."

 

So, tell m again how I am incorrect with my above statement

 

Ok if I am incorrect name me ONE just ONE OL in this first round that will "fix" the Bills OL?

I don't think anybody is saying that ONE O-lineman is gonna fix it. There are multiple spots to upgrade. 

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39 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

I think the biggest takeaway regarding building an OL is that there's no one way to do it right.

 

Teams like Dallas use multiple first-round picks over several years to accumulate talent, and it works.

 

Teams like NE use multiple mid-round picks over several years to accumulate talent, and it works.

 

Teams like the Rams identify key FAs in a single offseason that fit their scheme (Whitworth, Sullivan, Blythe) and sign them to big contracts, and it works.

 

The important thing is that the team identify talented players that fit their scheme, and invest whatever is necessary to get them in the fold.

Agreed. My point was, not every team can just take low rd picks and just turn them into a championship caliber OL.  

 

Seemed to me that MAJ was saying that winning teams don’t draft OL in the first rd because they just coach everyone up.    My point was, even the teams that coach their OL up occasionally use high picks on the OL.

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That three cone number is a huge red flag. I would like to see him reduce his muscle mass and work on his flexibility. He is not training smart for a WR. He is training more like a body builder. I would hope Metcalf can get that three cone number under 7.00 by his pro day.

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2 minutes ago, billspro said:

That three cone number is a huge red flag. I would like to see him reduce his muscle mass and work on his flexibility. He is not training smart for a WR. He is training more like a body builder. I would hope Metcalf can get that three cone number under 7.00 by his pro day.

He's definitely not following the TB12 method!

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1 hour ago, MAJBobby said:

A GM that will do the coaches wants states their is no True No 1 WR in the NFL anymore.  Go figure.  It will be a Defensive player I am sure.  

Nope I said their SB winning line had No 1st round pick.  Was I wrong?

I am not against fixing the OL.  I just would like it addressed in UFA with already developed OL.  Instead of spinning Wheels on a position that is Underdeveloped in College and with the CBA takes alot longer (if ever) to fix those under developed OL.  

 

Fix the OL in UFA

Fix the OL in FA. I would be extremely happy if we could do that.  I just don’t think we’re going to be able to sign 3 very good offensive lineman.

 

I’d like to build a great OL.  I don’t want to see Josh Allen running for his life every drop back.  I don’t wanna see our running game of last year ever again. It was abysmal.

 

 Running the ball. Was HUGE in the playoffs this year. A great OL will give us that AND allow Josh Allen to become the best qb he can be.  I’m not saying that we have to draft an OL with our first pick, but we have to be open to talking one if an OL is the BPA in the early rounds 

 

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D.K. Metcalf had a great combine ... but was slower than Tom Brady in some drills

 

Metcalf had a 3-cone drill of 7.38 seconds and a shuttle time of 4.5 seconds. Brady ran the 3-cone drill in 7.2 seconds and the shuttle in 4.38 seconds at the 2000 combine.

 

Was it just technique or is there something concerning about Metcalf’s short-area athleticism?

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/dk-metcalf-had-a-great-combine-but-was-slower-than-tom-brady-in-some-drills-160122585.html

 

Being built like a tank and running the 40 very fast is great, but neither matters if a receiver doesn’t have the quickness to get open in the NFL.

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1 hour ago, papazoid said:

D.K. Metcalf had a great combine ... but was slower than Tom Brady in some drills

 

Metcalf had a 3-cone drill of 7.38 seconds and a shuttle time of 4.5 seconds. Brady ran the 3-cone drill in 7.2 seconds and the shuttle in 4.38 seconds at the 2000 combine.

 

Was it just technique or is there something concerning about Metcalf’s short-area athleticism?

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/dk-metcalf-had-a-great-combine-but-was-slower-than-tom-brady-in-some-drills-160122585.html

 

Being built like a tank and running the 40 very fast is great, but neither matters if a receiver doesn’t have the quickness to get open in the NFL.

Totally agree with your points. And as they say on Shark Tank, " I'm Out".

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8 hours ago, papazoid said:

D.K. Metcalf had a great combine ... but was slower than Tom Brady in some drills

 

Metcalf had a 3-cone drill of 7.38 seconds and a shuttle time of 4.5 seconds. Brady ran the 3-cone drill in 7.2 seconds and the shuttle in 4.38 seconds at the 2000 combine.

 

Was it just technique or is there something concerning about Metcalf’s short-area athleticism?

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/dk-metcalf-had-a-great-combine-but-was-slower-than-tom-brady-in-some-drills-160122585.html

 

Being built like a tank and running the 40 very fast is great, but neither matters if a receiver doesn’t have the quickness to get open in the NFL.

Per some scouts who were there, it was technique.  Slipped during the drill.

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AJ Brown (also from Ole Miss) in 2nd / 3rd > DK Metcalf in 1..... This has Vernon Gholston written all over it.. physical freak, ran and tested off the charts at combine, no lateral movement, not good in pros.

 

Give me OL in first round. Or sign Darryl Williams.. trade down.. take TE/C/G (if C is available after trade down)

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Just now, dje85 said:

Wasn't Beane quoted as saying in today's NFL you don't need a true wr just guys that get open / separation? I feel like that soundbite screams wr in the second round the earliest. 

He and McDermott both said that. Could be calculated. 

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22 minutes ago, dje85 said:

Wasn't Beane quoted as saying in today's NFL you don't need a true wr just guys that get open / separation? I feel like that soundbite screams wr in the second round the earliest. 

And there will be good receivers in the 2nd. If the Bills can somehow get an AJ Brown/Harry in the 2nd, I’ll throw a foam party for the board.

Edited by Jay_Fixit
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