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Bills hire away Dolphins Director of Analytics


YoloinOhio

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2 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

If there’s one team that has been masterful at their use of analytics it’s the Dolphins (sarcasm font).

All the analytics in the world get blown up by a nut job owner......Stephen Ross = Dan Snyder

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38 minutes ago, MJS said:

 

Why would an analytics guy be involved in contract negotiations? The cap has nothing to do with his job.

 

You have no idea what his job was, how much influence he had, if he was respected, what good or bad moves he was involved in, etc. You can't just make such rash inferences without any information whatsoever.

 

He took a job with a division rival. That to me says he was not super happy there,Cor happy with the direction the organization was heading.

Analytics guys are using numbers and data to group players. They are using data to predict future performance based on certain traits. The only thing that we know are the results. It was a disaster in the Dolphins case. You don’t know if he had a lot or a little involvement. You do know that the results were bad. 

 

If he had had a little involvement that is a problem to me. I haven’t been in sports in almost 7 years but our analytics people had a big say. I can’t possibly see that being less now than it was then. There is so much more information and training for the role.

 

The point is that we don’t know if he is bad or good. We know the results of his previous situation were bad. It is VERY fair to assume that he played a role in that. We just don’t know how big of a role.

5 minutes ago, JoeF said:

All the analytics in the world get blown up by a nut job owner......Stephen Ross = Dan Snyder

This is fair.

Edited by Kirby Jackson
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1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

If he had no say, that is a problem. If he had a say, he did a bad job. EVERY analytics person has a voice in today’s professional sports.

Gase didn’t pick players. This guys likely had as much to do with that as Gase. Now they are talking about tearing it down.

 

I doubt this guy had much to do with Gase alienating their best RB, WR, and getting rid of Suh. And that great run they had in bringing in Cutler.

 

Gase had a ton to do with the lack of talent down there and personnel decisions. That's why he is gone.

Edited by Ol Dirty B
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48 minutes ago, 2018 Our Year For Sure said:

 

According to the good doctor himself in the video Yolo posted, neither of these posts are correct. His job is not 'just to run the numbers,' it's to come to conclusions based on those statistical models. And yes, he is involved with player acquisition/team-building.

 

He is not a decision maker. He can come to whatever conclusions he wants about players, schemes, etc, but the coaches, GM, and management may or may not follow those conclusions.

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Nerds

 

But seriously, good for nerds for getting involved in football.  I think the key is finding the balance between analytics and old fashion scouting.  Sites like PFF have value but they often are very flawed in their analysis (not knowing playcalls or assignments for individual players is a big one).  Also, in an emotional game like football, blind numbers don’t work like they do in baseball.

 

still, what can it hurt if used in a vacuum.

1 hour ago, Rico said:

I wonder if he is concerned that EJ had better stats his rookie year than Josh Allen did.

? 

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1 minute ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Nerds

 

But seriously, good for nerds for getting involved in football.  I think the key is finding the balance between analytics and old fashion scouting.  Sites like PFF have value but they often are very flawed in their analysis (not knowing playcalls or assignments for individual players is a big one).  Also, in an emotional game like football, blind numbers don’t work like they do in baseball.

 

still, what can it hurt if used in a vacuum.

?

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58 minutes ago, 2018 Our Year For Sure said:

 

According to the good doctor himself in the video Yolo posted, neither of these posts are correct. His job is not 'just to run the numbers,' it's to come to conclusions based on those statistical models. And yes, he is involved with player acquisition/team-building.

He indicated that his role is similar to that of a scout, in terms of the weight of his voice. He does his part in terms of analytics and attributing meaning to the personnel and football decisions but he’s just presenting it to the decision makers as one of many pieces of data. What isn’t known is how much the Miami FO followed his recommendations. That’s the only way to determine how much he contributed to their success/talent or lack thereof. you can say the same of any member of the FO underneath the GM (or Gase in this case who had control over the 53) because that is whose name is tied to every decision.  

 

Hickey hired him in Miami and must think he’s good. Some teams don’t invest in analytics at all - like the chargers - so it’s a nice thing to have.

Edited by YoloinOhio
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5 minutes ago, Peter said:

Does anyone know what this guy has that the prior MIT guy (who was fired) did not have . . . or was this just a case of firing a guy that was hired by someone else and bringing on someone else?

 

Buffalo Bills Hired MIT Grad Mike Lyons in 2013

 

My read on a superficial search was the old guy was a former Xerox market and pricing analytics guy.

 

This new one seem like a football analytics guy. 

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15 minutes ago, Peter said:

Does anyone know what this guy has that the prior MIT guy (who was fired) did not have . . . or was this just a case of firing a guy that was hired by someone else and bringing on someone else?

 

Buffalo Bills Hired MIT Grad Mike Lyons in 2013

Lyons wasn’t hired to do football analytics. This guy has a sports analytics background. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/01/25/bills-axe-analytics-staff/amp/

Edited by YoloinOhio
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I think McB know what they're doing and what they want.  I don't know if what they're doing will get the results we want, but they have a well defined idea  of what they are doing and who they want. 

 

So the fact that this guy comes from a franchise that hasn't had a lot of success doesn't bother me.  The guy wouldn't be coming if he didn't buy what McB are doing, and they wouldn't have taken him if he didn't look like a fit. 

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The montage of perspectives on this thread convinces me no one is an authority on analytics. Not even PHD’s.

 

I’m not knocking it, it’s ‘brain analyzing stuff’, so it’s subject to interpretation. I hope he does well for us -however that’s assessed..

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7 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said:

and RBs, and Oline, and th Dline aint bad either.  As much as we dont like him kiko is good.

They are okay but are they better than average? Are Kenyan Drake and Frank Gore a good backfield? Stills, Wilson, Amendola and Parker? I just don’t think that their talent is good. 

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6 hours ago, CLTbills said:

But, keep in mind, Gase did have a HUGE hand in some good talent leaving... Ajayi, Jarvis Landry, Jordan Phillips.. So just because they're a little short on talent, i wouldn't necessarily blame the analytics guys... seems like they had some good talent that the HC ran off... if those are the ones we know about, I'm sure there are more out there as well.

 

I respect your opinion more than most on here, Kirby, just playing Devil's Advocate...

Agreed. It's also important to note that the analytics guy is not making the decisions. It's ultimately up to Gase/now McBeane to make the right decisions with the information provided. Appears as though the guy is respected around the league, so there's nothing to dislike about the hire.

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Analytics often involves studying past historical data to research potential trends, to analyze the effects of certain decisions or events, or to evaluate the performance of a given tool or scenario. The goal of analytics is to improve the business by gaining knowledge which can be used to make improvements or changes.

 

I bet Doug Whaleys name will come up a lot

 
Image result for kramer gif
Edited by HOUSE
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7 hours ago, Mark80 said:

Curious, how did this guys work on analytics work out for the Dolphins?  Seems to me the Dolphins have been pretty crappy since 2015.

 

There is a difference between understanding / creating analytics and actually applying them effectively to an organization.

Maybe Lock wanted to leave the team because after he did the research, the team didn't want to listen to his advice.  I think with Adam Gase there was a certain level of dysfunctionality with the team.

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2 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

They are okay but are they better than average? Are Kenyan Drake and Frank Gore a good backfield? Stills, Wilson, Amendola and Parker? I just don’t think that their talent is good. 

They averaged 4.7 yards per carry and 7.3 yards per pass and Gore kinda became the forgotten man IIRC.

Edited by formerlyofCtown
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9 hours ago, SWATeam said:

Every NFL organization has talent throughout.  You wouldn't roster any player from that team either, because the team overall is bad?

 

 

This isn't any player.  Its the guy who has been in charge of using his analytic skills to maximize the success of...the Dolphins.

 

 

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10 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

If there’s one team that has been masterful at their use of analytics it’s the Dolphins (sarcasm font).

That is NOT the sarcasm font!

3 hours ago, HOUSE said:

Analytics often involves studying past historical data to research potential trends, to analyze the effects of certain decisions or events, or to evaluate the performance of a given tool or scenario. The goal of analytics is to improve the business by gaining knowledge which can be used to make improvements or changes.

 

I bet Doug Whaleys name will come up a lot

 
Image result for kramer gif

Whenever a Seinfeld meme is included it is gold!

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11 hours ago, SWATeam said:

It is impossible to know if this guy is even the least bit responsible for anything you are inferring.

 

Love the experts on this site who understand exactly how a pro football team operates and who holds what responsibilities.  :rolleyes:

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14 hours ago, Mark80 said:

Curious, how did this guys work on analytics work out for the Dolphins?  Seems to me the Dolphins have been pretty crappy since 2015.

 

There is a difference between understanding / creating analytics and actually applying them effectively to an organization.

IMO, analytics are helpful for finding solid depth players and players who are ready to step into a bigger role but have not gotten the chance on their current team for whatever reason...

 

They are not the end all be all, they are just a part of the overall equation. At the end of the day analytics are basically formulas which have not been "proven" right or wrong through long term usage. The analytics are only as valuable as their correctness on predicting whatever it is they are supposed to be predicting...using analytics that are wrong in this regard would actually be worse than not using analytics at all.

Edited by matter2003
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On 2/26/2019 at 10:44 AM, Kirby Jackson said:

I’m not trying to judge him too harshly and I’m sorry if it is coming across as that. I’m not trying to give the guy a free pass either. The only thing we have to formulate opinions at this point is the work with the Dolphins. I don’t think that any reasonable person can look at that situation and say that they did well. 

 

Maybe he was constantly overruled and would have been right? Maybe he was a big part of these bad decisions? We don’t know that. We just know that the results were bad. 

 

It's all good. There is certainly a cautionary tale when organizations get too blinded by analytics and methodology cure-all's.

 

Look at how GE has "Agiled" their way into near bankruptcy. Much like slapping an "agile" sticker on a lumbering corpse.

 

IMO... for OBD just like any other organization, nothing replaces good leadership, finding good people who make good decisions who then hire good people who can accomplish the mission (the process- that usually works).

 

 

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