plenzmd1 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 (edited) Holy moly, Pats are getting 4 picks , two in the 3rd. How can that be? Will look for link. Edited February 22, 2019 by plenzmd1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClemsonBills Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Eventually, when done right, this will be us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 (edited) I With the tarnished Shield I hope these go away. Easy *come* easy go Edited February 22, 2019 by ShadyBillsFan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 (edited) You can’t keep rewarding the top teams and expect parity Edited February 22, 2019 by ShadyBillsFan 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jobot Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 5 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said: You can’t keep rewarding the top teams and expect parity It's not like these picks are randomly given out... There's a reason that the Pats are the best during the season, and it's because they're also the best during the offseason. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RPbillsfan Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 With the Redskins getting a 3rd, 5th and 7th round compensatory picks it makes it a greater possibility that they may Ent to move up and draft their QB of the future. If you were the Bills GM, would you move from 9 to 14 and take both 3rd round picks? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rc2catch Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 I must really not get how this works lol. Dont you have to lose players in free agency for this and not sign many? I have never fully understood the formula, not sure anyone really does. Multiple 3’s seems quite high though for both them and LA. Doesn’t seem like they lost or didn’t resign many players Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Tomcat Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Compensatory not Conditional. 0 for Bills...no surprise really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Koko78 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 7 minutes ago, Rc2catch said: I must really not get how this works lol. Dont you have to lose players in free agency for this and not sign many? I have never fully understood the formula, not sure anyone really does. Multiple 3’s seems quite high though for both them and LA. Doesn’t seem like they lost or didn’t resign many players It's some ridiculous/complex/secret calculation that takes into account the 'value' of free agents you lose. So if the Cheatriots had a net FA loss a two good players, they get two 3rd round comp picks based upon the calculated 'value' of those players who went elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Success Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 They can have 20 extra picks - the reason they win is BB and Brady. Their drafting is unspectacular overall. They get coachable players but few stars. So many pieces on that team are interchangeable. - BB the coach makes BB the GM look a lot better. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turk71 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 (edited) Cmon man, all the TBD experts know that compensatory picks are a worthless joke and anyone concerned with them is an idiot. Pay attention. 2 hours ago, ClemsonBills said: Eventually, when done right, this will be us. Edited February 22, 2019 by Turk71 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sven233 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 (edited) On a side note, Patriots owner Robert Kraft was so happy with this news that he was heard screaming "Hookers for everybody" at the Pats* facility! Edited February 22, 2019 by sven233 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeGOATski Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Build through the draft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chandler#81 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 and the rich get richer... 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussellDopeland Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 So the formula, I take it, goes something like this: If the Patriots lose 2 free agents, and sign 1, they receive 2 compensatory picks. If the Patriots lose 1 free agent, and sign 5, the receive 4 compensatory picks. Conversely, if Buffalo loses 10 free agents, and signs 1, they receive a 6th round compensatory pick. If Buffalo loses 15 free agents, and signs none, they receive 0 picks as compensation. It all makes sense... 4 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gonzo1105 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 3 minutes ago, Rc2catch said: I must really not get how this works lol. Dont you have to lose players in free agency for this and not sign many? I have never fully understood the formula, not sure anyone really does. Multiple 3’s seems quite high though for both them and LA. Doesn’t seem like they lost or didn’t resign many players Its very easy actually. The hidden magic formula is really Players gained vs players Lost. If you have more players lost then gained you qualify for a compensatory pick. Then they take the Average Annual Salary Of the players you gained and the players you lost and match them as equally as possible. To have a player qualify thy need to meet a certain salary threshold as well. Players signed that were cut from other teams do not count in the players gained column For Example: Buffalo lost: Seantrel Henderson Preston Brown E.J Gaines Joe Webb Buffalo gained: Murphy Lotelelei Stanford McCarron Bodine Bush 6 gained 4 lost = no picks Now the Patriots were a question Patriots lost: Nate Solder Malcolm Butler Danny Amendola Dion Lewis Joe Bademosi Cameron Fleming Patriots Gained: Adrian Clayborn Jeremy Hill Patriots lost 6 Gained 2= 4 possible comp picks Solder AAV is over 15 Butler AAV is over 12 Amendola is almost 6 Lewis almost 5 Bademost 3.1 Fleming 2.5 Clayborn is 5 AAV Hill was 1.3 So now match em up. Lewis and Clayborn cancel each other and Hill and Fleming cancel each other This leaves Solder= 3rd round, Butler 3rd round, Amendola 6th round, Bademosi 7th round based on their AAV 10 1 2 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
co_springs_billsfan Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 I've now come back to earth after the Kraft news... this is very deflating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwhit34 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Here is a good web site that steps through the methodology, at least per what people can ascertain since the league has never disclosed their formula: https://overthecap.com/compensatory-draft-picks-cancellation-chart/ Hopefully the actual data helps dispels some of the conspiracy theories. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jpsredemption Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Bills continuously lose out on this somehow even when they aren’t trying to win by signing trash free agents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QCity Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 16 minutes ago, Koko78 said: It's some ridiculous/complex/secret calculation that takes into account the 'value' of free agents you lose. There's nothing ridiculous or complex about it. The value it's based on is the amount that player signs for. I've been discussing this on this forum for a decade, but it typically draws blank stares and for some reason is equated to particle physics. This is not an accident. They aren't participating in some behind-the-scenes shenanigans. These are calculated moves that takes years of foresight to pull off correctly. Ozzie Newsome is the man who wrote the book on gaming the comp pick system, and the Pats front office has shown over the years that it's taking it to the next level. Bills' past GM's such as Nix, Whaley, Brandon, Levy, etc, etc, had no clue what was going on in regards to this and were incapable of seeing that far into the future to pull it off. So it sort of makes sense that a large portion of our fan base doesn't understand what's happening here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gonzo1105 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 With only 6 FA(none of which are in high demand) and the hope the Bills sign multiple Free Agents this off-season, don’t expect any next year either. Clay doesn’t count for us since we released him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatdrought Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 I forgot about Soldier and Butler, it makes more sense now. The problem with the comp picks is that the Patriots always let players go, and teams always sign them to huge contracts because their patriots background gives teams hard-ons. If teams stop overpaying for ***** players from the Patriots, this would stop happening. I will say though, it is really quite ridiculous that the NFL keeps the formula locked down.. What's the point of that? Do teams not know and they don't want teams messing with the system? Or is it just kept from the public? It's hard to claim parity and equal playing field with such secrets-however small. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Koko78 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 2 minutes ago, QCity said: There's nothing ridiculous or complex about it. The value it's based on is the amount that player signs for. I've been discussing this on this forum for a decade, but it typically draws blank stares and for some reason is equated to particle physics. You should probably leave the string theory and wormhole chapters out of your compensatory pick dissertation then. It's all witchcraft and magic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gonzo1105 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 2 minutes ago, whatdrought said: I forgot about Soldier and Butler, it makes more sense now. The problem with the comp picks is that the Patriots always let players go, and teams always sign them to huge contracts because their patriots background gives teams hard-ons. If teams stop overpaying for ***** players from the Patriots, this would stop happening. I will say though, it is really quite ridiculous that the NFL keeps the formula locked down.. What's the point of that? Do teams not know and they don't want teams messing with the system? Or is it just kept from the public? It's hard to claim parity and equal playing field with such secrets-however small. The reason why they can do this has more to do with the fact that Brady and Belichick can cover up weaknesses because their two of the best all time. Get used to it the Pats are gonna be in line for two more 3rd rounders most likely next near with Trent Brown and Trey Flowers as FAs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plenzmd1 Posted February 22, 2019 Author Share Posted February 22, 2019 (edited) 11 minutes ago, QCity said: There's nothing ridiculous or complex about it. The value it's based on is the amount that player signs for. I've been discussing this on this forum for a decade, but it typically draws blank stares and for some reason is equated to particle physics. Thats is part of the equation, but not the whole equation as I understand it. If that was the case, we would know by start of the season pretty much what teams would get what. Playing time, stats , all kind of things are computed in i believe. First thing I found Quote As the NFL explains, compensatory picks are awarded to teams that lose more or better compensatory free agents than they acquire. The number of picks a team can receive equals the net loss of compensatory free agents, up to a maximum of four. Compensatory free agents are determined by a secret formula based on salary, playing time and postseason honors. Not every free agent lost or signed is covered by the formula. Although the formula has never been revealed, by studying the compensatory picks that have been awarded since they began in 1994, I’ve determined that the primary factor in the value of the picks awarded is the average annual value of the contract the player signed with his new team, with an adjustment for playing time and a smaller adjustment for postseason honors. Edited February 22, 2019 by plenzmd1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gonzo1105 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 7 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said: Thats is part of the equation, but not the whole equation as I understand it. If that was the case, we would know by start of the season pretty much what teams would get what. Playing time, stats , all kind of things are computed in i believe. First thing I found Its not based on awards or playing time, every year people bring this up and it’s not true if you look at the history of comp picks The Rams got 2 3rd round picks solely because they had a net lose in FAs and Trumaine Johnson(who was terrible this year) signed a contract with an AAV of 14.5 million a season and Sammy Watkins ( who was average) to over 15 mill AAV. It’s based on Players lost vs players gained. Then based on AAV and comparing and crossing out equal salaries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albany,n.y. Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 The best use of a comp pick of all time: Pick 199 of the 2000 NFL draft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Billieve Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 27 minutes ago, whatdrought said: I forgot about Soldier and Butler, it makes more sense now. The problem with the comp picks is that the Patriots always let players go, and teams always sign them to huge contracts because their patriots background gives teams hard-ons. If teams stop overpaying for ***** players from the Patriots, this would stop happening. I will say though, it is really quite ridiculous that the NFL keeps the formula locked down.. What's the point of that? Do teams not know and they don't want teams messing with the system? Or is it just kept from the public? It's hard to claim parity and equal playing field with such secrets-however small. My guess is the system is somewhat subjective/arbitrary since like players are a scratch. They are probably just looking to avoid complaints/gaming of the system. If there is a set published formula sophisticated operations would then be looking to sign players in a such a way as to not give other teams higher picks etc. It seems equally plausible that there's a competition committee that determines "like" players and they don't want them over scrutinized/criticized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plenzmd1 Posted February 22, 2019 Author Share Posted February 22, 2019 33 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said: Its not based on awards or playing time, every year people bring this up and it’s not true if you look at the history of comp picks The Rams got 2 3rd round picks solely because they had a net lose in FAs and Trumaine Johnson(who was terrible this year) signed a contract with an AAV of 14.5 million a season and Sammy Watkins ( who was average) to over 15 mill AAV. It’s based on Players lost vs players gained. Then based on AAV and comparing and crossing out equal salaries. That is the majority yes, but there is a reason it is called a "formula" and no one knows for certain what teams will be awarded what picks. If it was striclt a net contract value thing, these things would be known "with certainty" ...and thats not the case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gonzo1105 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 (edited) 10 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said: That is the majority yes, but there is a reason it is called a "formula" and no one knows for certain what teams will be awarded what picks. If it was striclt a net contract value thing, these things would be known "with certainty" ...and thats not the case I pretty well explained earlier quite easily how the Patriots and Rams accrued their pics pretty accurately without secrecy. Go to overthecap.com they do a heck of a job as well and are like 98% accurate and there is zero mention of playing time or awards as part of the “super secret formula” Edited February 22, 2019 by gonzo1105 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plenzmd1 Posted February 22, 2019 Author Share Posted February 22, 2019 Just now, gonzo1105 said: I pretty well explained earlier quite easily how the Patriots and Jets accrued their pics pretty accurately without secrecy. Go to overthecap.com they do a heck of a job as well and are like 98% accurate and there is zero mention of playing time or awards as part of the “super secret formula” as i said, and agree, it is the majority of the formula, but there are other things involved. It is not 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rc2catch Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 1 hour ago, gonzo1105 said: Its very easy actually. The hidden magic formula is really Players gained vs players Lost. If you have more players lost then gained you qualify for a compensatory pick. Then they take the Average Annual Salary Of the players you gained and the players you lost and match them as equally as possible. To have a player qualify thy need to meet a certain salary threshold as well. Players signed that were cut from other teams do not count in the players gained column For Example: Buffalo lost: Seantrel Henderson Preston Brown E.J Gaines Joe Webb Buffalo gained: Murphy Lotelelei Stanford McCarron Bodine Bush 6 gained 4 lost = no picks Now the Patriots were a question Patriots lost: Nate Solder Malcolm Butler Danny Amendola Dion Lewis Joe Bademosi Cameron Fleming Patriots Gained: Adrian Clayborn Jeremy Hill Patriots lost 6 Gained 2= 4 possible comp picks Solder AAV is over 15 Butler AAV is over 12 Amendola is almost 6 Lewis almost 5 Bademost 3.1 Fleming 2.5 Clayborn is 5 AAV Hill was 1.3 So now match em up. Lewis and Clayborn cancel each other and Hill and Fleming cancel each other This leaves Solder= 3rd round, Butler 3rd round, Amendola 6th round, Bademosi 7th round based on their AAV Makes much more sense now. I didn’t realize they had that many leave in free agency. Forgot about Lewis and butler completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Augie Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Good, that’s just more to take away! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 2 hours ago, RPbillsfan said: With the Redskins getting a 3rd, 5th and 7th round compensatory picks it makes it a greater possibility that they may Ent to move up and draft their QB of the future. If you were the Bills GM, would you move from 9 to 14 and take both 3rd round picks? Yes if that was the best deal. No one we want will be drafted from 10 to 14. So take the 2 thirds if that offer is only offer and move to 15. We would have 3 picks in 3rd round and 2 in 4th round. Package a couple of those up and get back into 2nd round or maybe even trade our 2nd with one of those 3rds to get back into the first round. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PromoTheRobot Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 (edited) Anyone post this yet? https://ublawsportsforum.com/2018/03/13/brandon-beane-and-the-nfls-compensatory-pick-formula/ Edited February 22, 2019 by PromoTheRobot 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RPbillsfan Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 32 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said: Yes if that was the best deal. No one we want will be drafted from 10 to 14. So take the 2 thirds if that offer is only offer and move to 15. We would have 3 picks in 3rd round and 2 in 4th round. Package a couple of those up and get back into 2nd round or maybe even trade our 2nd with one of those 3rds to get back into the first round. That's exactly what I was thinking. So much will depend on the combine and then the Pro Days. But I think if Haskins and either Lock or Murray is taken by the time our pick comes up, the Redskins will want to jump in front of Miami to get one of the three. Then with three third we could deal 2, get a 2ns 2 and end up with a 1st, 2 2nds, a third and two in the 4th and 5th, a 6th and a pair in the 7th. Lots of possibilities 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bills Fan of St Augustine Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 4 hours ago, RPbillsfan said: With the Redskins getting a 3rd, 5th and 7th round compensatory picks it makes it a greater possibility that they may Ent to move up and draft their QB of the future. If you were the Bills GM, would you move from 9 to 14 and take both 3rd round picks? Seems like a fair deal to me. I'd do it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 4 hours ago, ShadyBillsFan said: You can’t keep rewarding the top teams and expect parity However you can keep not trying to understand the rules in order to pretend it’s unfair 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clemfield2622 Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 The formula isn't a secret, people just can't understand it no matter how plainly it is spelled out to them. Comp picks are garbage and should be done away with. Teams absolutely know to manipulate the system. In a league with a cap, comp picks should not exist. These teams did not lose these players, they let them go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
offyourocker Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 How can the Rams be getting picks. They signed so many free agents last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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