Bills Schedule Updates

[corta765]

Hey everyone I am back with some schedule updates now that the season is officially completed.

 

First off the Bills opponents are set for the 2019 season:

Home: NYJ, NE, MIA, BAL, PHI, WSH, DEN, CIN

Away: NYJ, NE, MIA, DAL, NYG, PIT, TEN, CLE

 

The Bills strength of schedule is rated at .480 which is 24th in the NFL facing 5 playoff teams and 4 ten win teams. Now that obviously will change once the season starts but that is not a bad place to begin.

 

This is the NFL's 100th season coming up and I am sure you will see lots of celebrations all over the league. Because of that anniversary rumor has it the opening NFL game will not be the Super Bowl champions hosting an opponent like normal but the Packers against the Bears. They are saying the Patriots should still get a night game and my prediction would be the Chiefs or Steelers on Sunday Night Football so you can cross those two opponents off for the Bills to play week 1.

 

Buffalo opened on the road for the 2018 season so they be home to open the 2019 season. The only time in the last decade the Bills opened on the road back to back years was the 2011 (@ KC) to 2012 (@ NYJ) seasons and with the NFL's greater scheduling focus I would doubt you see the Bills forced on the road.

 

With the Bills opening at home I would predict Buffalo takes on Miami week 1. Typically the NFL does like to have divisional matchups week 1 with the Bills recently hosting the Jets in 2017. The Bills have kind of done a flip flop of AFC foes and AFC Divisional opponents for the home opener with it going Chargers 18, Jets 17, Jets 16, Colts 15, Dolphins 14, Patriots 13, Chiefs 12. Buffalo also has not hosted Miami week 1 since 1991 when they beat Miami 35-31 and it feels like this may be the year the Bills break that streak.

 

Based off my research Buffalo should receive a more favorable home schedule layout then last years 6 away games in the first 8 games to start the year. In 2016 the Bills got dealt a rough home schedule with 6 away games in their first 10 games and four home games in the final six, only to receive a far more favorable 5 homes games in the first 9 games for the 2017 season. My prediction is the Bills get something similar with at least 4 home games by the end of October.

 

If you are looking to go to an away Bills game this is one heck of a year to do it with trips to Nashville, Cleveland, & Pittsburgh all on the schedule which all are great fun cities and drive able or a very quick flight. Dallas also is on there if you want to go to Jerry World.

 

The Bills will not be playing in London this year none of their opponents are hosting a game and the Bills were not selected to host one (thank god).

 

For those of you who are fans of 1:00 pm starts this will be a good year for you. The Bills have just one away game that is not EST being the Dallas game which could start at 4:15 although the last two games in Dallas started at 1:00 pm (Buffalo has not won in Dallas since the 1993 season). The only other game which possibly could receive a 4:15 start due to the geographic location of a team is when the Bills host the Broncos. Again historically Buffalo has not had that game be at the 4:15 slot since the 1990s and typically 4:00 games are far more marquee matchups. Assuming both games receive 1:00pm start times the Bills potentially will have a schedule of all 1:00pm games minus any possible night games, flex games, or the NFL actually moving the Bills into a 4:00 start. So if you like 1:00pm congrats because it is looking like a great year, for those like me who like later games it will be a bummer.

 

Finally night games. The Bills have rarely received two night games in a season. The only two times in the last decade Buffalo played twice at night was the 2015 (at NYJ & at NE) and 2016 (NYJ home and at SEA) seasons which you can give credence to Rex Ryan being the head coach for that attention. The NFL seems to finally be letting Bills fans have a little fun at home with games on Thursday Night Football 2016 and Monday Night Football 2018. This has be received positively around the league with famed NFL writer Peter King commenting that Buffalo deserves a night game every year because of the environment and how good it reflects for the NFL. Additionally there was no real issues locally before or after the game which helps support the team hosting. To play at night you need to have a QB with some brand if you want to make your mark. Josh Allen had a solid rookie season with many highlight moments that should help a little for the Bills night game cause. Having fellow QB class brethren Sam Darnold 2x and Baker Mayfield on schedule certainly is a selling point too.

 

All of that said I think Buffalo gets one night game and it is a road game at NYJ or Cleveland who Buffalo has played before at night. If the Bills do receive a home game, the Patriots, the Jets, or another big market team like the Eagles with Wentz would same probably be the opponent on Monday Night Football. The Bills will not receive a Sunday Night Game until they improve more consistently. If the Bills do get two night games it will almost certainly be a combination of above with the Bills traveling to NY/CLE and hosting NE/PHI/NY. I would be stunned if the Bills night game is much past week 11 because the NFL usually puts its lower market games earlier in the season when things are still new and exciting.

[YoloinOhio]

Awesome breakdown and thought process, thanks 

[Chuck Wagon]

The Cleveland game has Thursday night written all over it.

[corta765]

1 minute ago, Chuck Wagon said:

The Cleveland game has Thursday night written all over it.

 

Agreed. I can see the NFL selling the crap out of that game being Baker v Allen somewhere between weeks 3-5. AND then the game will be a 13-10 defensive slug fest haha

[buffalobillswin]

Bills at Giants or Bills at Dal could be potential primetime games. My vote is Bills at Cowboys as an early Monday Night game. 

[corta765]

25 minutes ago, buffalobillswin said:

Bills at Giants or Bills at Dal could be potential primetime games. My vote is Bills at Cowboys as an early Monday Night game. 

 

Maybe but with the NFLs 100th season I feel they may use more primetime games with big market teams like NYG or DAL as opportunities to reemphasize those teams. Giants at night would be really fun.

[YoloinOhio]

29 minutes ago, Chuck Wagon said:

The Cleveland game has Thursday night written all over it.

And we are sure to get a TNF game this year, since we were spared last year for some reason. I am less sure about buffalo getting a SNF or MNF game. 

[Gugny]

I'm predicting Bills vs. Cleveland on a Monday night because last season showed that Allen and Mayfield were the best two QBs of their class.

[IgotBILLStopay]

Just dont want us playing a Thursday game (too many injuries) or facing a team that is coming off a Thursday game or bye week (too much prep time for them). Other than that I am excited to face any opponent!!

 

I am salivating already at Allen vs. Darnold and Allen vs. Mayfield.

[boco357]

If it was in like in the past Bills at Cowboys could be a Thanksgiving game, but more recently been using NFC teams instead.

[IgotBILLStopay]

If we have to get a Thursday game, please let it be opening week.

[Gugny]

6 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

Just dont want us playing a Thursday game (too many injuries) or facing a team that is coming off a Thursday game or bye week (too much prep time for them). Other than that I am excited to face any opponent!!

 

I am salivating already at Allen vs. Darnold and Allen vs. Mayfield.

 

Historically, there are not more injuries during Thursday night games.  Last year was the only year in which there were more and it wasn't by much.

[corta765]

18 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

And we are sure to get a TNF game this year, since we were spared last year for some reason. I am less sure about buffalo getting a SNF or MNF game. 

 

Last year the NFL was asked by the networks for better Thursday Night Games as opposed to the mostly divisional spread which gave everyone "classics" like the Jaguars Titans for years or Browns Bengals. The NFL removed the rule that every team most play on TNF and helped give better matchups which you saw.

 

Being this is the 100th anniversary though I think the TNF schedule will go back a bit to being lesser matchups and Bills/Browns would seem very possible.

 

MNF Buffalo absolutely has a shot for. SNF is the most exclusive teams and matchups now because it is the NFLs biggest draw.

12 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

Just dont want us playing a Thursday game (too many injuries) or facing a team that is coming off a Thursday game or bye week (too much prep time for them). Other than that I am excited to face any opponent!!

 

I am salivating already at Allen vs. Darnold and Allen vs. Mayfield.

 

Darnold Allen p1 was already fun and with more weapons for both hopefully we get more high scoring games.

 

But Baker Allen will be insane. Both QBs are confident and arrogant as heck with personality which I love. The problem is both BUF and CLE have good defenses which could slow the game into a crawl.

Edited February 6, 2019 by corta765

[IgotBILLStopay]

4 minutes ago, corta765 said:

 

But Baker Allen will be insane. Both QBs are confident and arrogant as heck with personality which I love. The problem is both BUF and CLE have good defenses which could slow the game into a crawl.

 

Iron sharpen Iron! Bring it on baby!!

[GG]

58 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

If we have to get a Thursday game, please let it be opening week.

 

I wish, but NFL schedules a marquee match up for the first Thursday

[Chuck Wagon]

16 minutes ago, GG said:

 

I wish, but NFL schedules a marquee match up for the first Thursday

 

 

Chiefs at Pats screams opening game of the season.  Dallas @ NE / Pit @ NE other options (or if you are the homer local radio guy here in Columbus, Browns @ Pats)

[BBills88]

Baltimore for the home Opener, the BILLS Revenge game we beat them 40 to 10

[Just Joshin']

Thanks for write-up,  I hope for no Thursday games even Thanksgiving.

[LVGrown]

2 hours ago, buffalobillswin said:

Bills at Giants or Bills at Dal could be potential primetime games. My vote is Bills at Cowboys as an early Monday Night game. 

This would be sweet! I'm planning on attending this game with a bunch of my cowboy fan friends. 

[corta765]

30 minutes ago, BBills88 said:

Baltimore for the home Opener, the BILLS Revenge game we beat them 40 to 10

 

The Ravens and Bills have a very odd relationship playing each other.

 

Buffalo has won both meetings in Buffalo and Baltimore has won all of games in Baltimore minus the first time they ever played which would make sense given Baltimore was basically a quasi-expansion team at the time.

[Chandler#81]

If the schedule plays out anywhere near where the OP surmises, this should be a memorable season. Missing from his logistics is the fact we play SEVEN games against AFC teams with all new coaching staffs; CLE, CIN, DEN & 2 ea vs NYJ & MIA. I anticipate 6 wins here, regardless of when/where, and all 7 if we catch the Jets on the road early. That’s better than sweeping the Division. Wash, G-men & Dal don’t strike fear in anyone. 2-1 vs TEN, BAL & PIT isn’t out of the realm either. IFFFF we can split with NE -for which keeping them from tying our 4 straight SB record should be motivation enough, we’re looking at a 12 win season. 

 

I know it’s very early..

[IgotBILLStopay]

1 hour ago, GG said:

 

I wish, but NFL schedules a marquee match up for the first Thursday

I know what you mean but maybe the schedule makers will consider Mayfield vs. Allen a marquee enough matchup for the undercard:)

[Patrick Duffy]

Actually really looking forward to the Bills- Browns game. Should be fun to watch Allen and Mayfield battle.

[eball]

Nice write-up.  Thx.  A primetime matchup vs. Cleveland really seems like a no-brainer, given the perceived rise of both franchises and the Baker vs. Josh angle.

[buffalobillswin]

1 hour ago, LVGrown said:

This would be sweet! I'm planning on attending this game with a bunch of my cowboy fan friends. 

Payback for the last time they met on Monday Night!

[SoCal Deek]

What the? We’re playing the Super Bowl champions TWICE?  The league Office hates the Bills!

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

4 hours ago, Chuck Wagon said:

The Cleveland game has Thursday night written all over it.

Quit thinking small time

 

The Cleveland game has Monday Night written all over it.

3 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

And we are sure to get a TNF game this year, since we were spared last year for some reason. I am less sure about buffalo getting a SNF or MNF game. 

 

3 hours ago, Gugny said:

I'm predicting Bills vs. Cleveland on a Monday night because last season showed that Allen and Mayfield were the best two QBs of their class.

damn it    late to the party again 

 

 

[Chuck Wagon]

38 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

Quit thinking small time

 

The Cleveland game has Monday Night written all over it.

 

damn it    late to the party again 

 

 

 

 

Thursday night matchups were better than Monday night matchups last year...

[purple haze]

5 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

And we are sure to get a TNF game this year, since we were spared last year for some reason. I am less sure about buffalo getting a SNF or MNF game. 

SNF, no.  MNF?  I'd bet on it.  Josh Allen is raw, but an exciting player at the most important position on the field and for marketing purposes.  That will get the Bills on by itself.  Pair that with their defensive ranking and thT would be enough.  I think FA adds on offense could also help.

[TigerJ]

This is the first year that attending a 1 PM game is not a hardship for me.  I would probably prefer a 4 PM or so start for a game that I'm seeing in person, but I can do it with no problem.  I'll likely only be going to one game anyway.

[Buffalo03]

4 hours ago, Chuck Wagon said:

 

 

Thursday night matchups were better than Monday night matchups last year...

Yeah, Monday night football has been extremely bad matchup wise the last couple of years. It's annoying the Bills struggle to get a Monday night game but the NFL will schedule a game like Cleveland at Giants. It's a game that I would watch simply because it's the NFL but it's certainly not a game I would give two craps about

[NoHuddleKelly12]

Thanks for all the in-depth digging OP. Good stuff! Really looking forward to the Cleveland game already. Doubtless will be a far cry from the single digit snooze-fests during the drought between the 2 clubs that Sully loved to pan!

18 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

What the? We’re playing the Super Bowl champions TWICE?  The league Office hates the Bills!

Post of the day 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

18 hours ago, Chuck Wagon said:

 

 

Thursday night matchups were better than Monday night matchups last year...

Matchups versus viewership is different.   

to my previous post which one is cable and which one is National TV? or are they now both cable?   (as usual, I guessed wrong) 

 

Excluding the top 5 or 6  teams, there really is no way to know how teams will play season to season (even the top 5)

 

As to viewership  I  looked it up this time

 

Monday Night Football’ Finishes 2018 Season up in Viewership Over Last Two Years

 

Monday Night Football” had its strongest season in two years, wrapping up its 2018 campaign with an average viewership of 11.6 million over 17 games

 

“Thursday Night Football” also saw a small viewership lift in its debut season on Fox, with its expanded 11-game slate averaging 14.3 million viewers, an increase of 3 percent from 2017, which was split between NBC and CBS.

[Chicharito]

No more prime time games we suck at night! But if we do have one I hope it’s a end of the year Saturday game so I could actually watch it!

[PromoTheRobot]

On 2/6/2019 at 11:33 AM, buffalobillswin said:

Bills at Giants or Bills at Dal could be potential primetime games. My vote is Bills at Cowboys as an early Monday Night game. 

 

Or maybe a Thanksgiving game?

[CSBill]

On 2/6/2019 at 11:31 AM, Chuck Wagon said:

The Cleveland game has Thursday night written all over it.

 

Great work Corta, thanks.

 

As for the above, I sure hope not, Thursday nights are brutal for the visiting team.

[bills_fan]

Bills played a night game at NYJ 2 years ago.  I hope the NFL doesnt do that again.  Make it the Cleveland game

[RoyBatty is alive]

Josh Allen is a dynamic, incredibly entertaining player to watch and is a mystery to most of the NFL audience.  He is a "draw".

[GreggTX]

23 hours ago, Just Joshin' said:

Thanks for write-up,  I hope for no Thursday games even Thanksgiving.

 

I really think that teams should get a bye week right before a Thu nite game. It could be done and would make for better games. It would also be easier on the players.

 

I'd love to see the Bills on Thanksgiving -- after a bye.

Edited February 7, 2019 by GreggTX

[buffaloaggie]

Nice analysis. The home opener pattern that you point out of non-divisional, then two divisional seems to point to a division rival as our home opener this season, since we opened with San Diego last year. Especially seeing that this past season, Miami was home week 1, and the Jets home opener was Miami in week 2, You can see the Miami at Buffalo opener for week 1 this upcoming season.

 

The only thing that could mess up the home, then away theory in week 1, giving the Bills a home opener this year, is the fact that New England will be opening at home for the 3rd straight year, so some team has to play back to back road week 1 games to offset that. The Jets have had two road week 1 games in 2017 and 2018. Doubt they'll start on the road for a 3rd straight year.